Tour de France Stage 17 Preview | OŪTCOMES

Summary

Podcast Summary: THEMOVE – "Tour de France Stage 17 Preview | OUTCOMES"

Release Date: July 22, 2025

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Introduction

In the "Tour de France Stage 17 Preview" episode of THEMOVE, hosts Johan Berniel and Spencer Martin delve deep into the upcoming 160-kilometer Stage 17 of the Tour de France. This episode, part of the "OUTCOMES" segment, focuses on analyzing potential outcomes, predicting stage winners, and discussing the implications for the green jersey competition. The conversation is rich with insights, betting odds, and strategic considerations that cater to both avid cycling fans and sports bettors.

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Stage 17 Overview

Spanning 160 kilometers, Stage 17 features two categorized climbs and presents strategic points for both sprinters and breakaway specialists. The stage includes an intermediate sprint and a final sprint finish, making it a crucial day for contenders aiming to secure or defend the green jersey.

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Predicting the Stage Outcome: Breakaway vs. Bunch Sprint

Johan Berniel initiates the discussion by emphasizing the high likelihood of a bunch sprint rather than a breakaway:

"[00:20] Johan Berniel: I cannot see any other outcome than a breakaway than a bunch sprint. Numerous reasons..."

He points out the dominance of heavyweight sprinters like Merlier and Milan, highlighting the tight competition for the green jersey between Jonathan Milan and Talepogaar.

Spencer Martin concurs, adding that the interest from multiple teams increases the chances of a bunch sprint:

"[02:54] Johan Berniel: ...I'm predicting a bunch print. There's too much interest from several teams still to have a bunch print."

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Key Sprinters and Betting Odds

The conversation shifts to analyzing the top sprinters and their respective betting odds from various bookmakers:

• Tim Merlier is identified as the heavy favorite with favorable odds:

  "[03:55] Spencer Martin: ...plus 130 on Unibet. He's actually plus 175 on bet3. He's the favorite."

• Jonathan Milan, while slightly behind Merlier, remains a strong contender:

  "[04:00] Spencer Martin: ...Jonathan Milan, it is bet365. He's plus 300 to get that price from Milan is incredible."

• Other sprinters like W. Benart, Jordy Mayos, Arno Del, Kaden Groves, Ben Garaya, and Jonas Operhunsen are also mentioned with their respective odds, indicating the depth of competition.

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Strategies for Securing the Green Jersey

Both hosts discuss the strategic maneuvers necessary for Jonathan Milan to maintain his lead in the green jersey standings:

"[02:54] Johan Berniel: ...Jonathan Milan and Talepoga... Milan has to score points both in the intermediate sprint and preferably also in a bunch sprint..."

Spencer adds that Milan may receive team support to conserve energy and control the race dynamics:

"[04:20] Spencer Martin: ...his team will have help. They will not have to burn themselves to pull this breakaway back."

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Wild Card Pick: Walt van Aert

Johan introduces a wild card pick, Walt van Aert, with enticing odds of +1100:

"[07:19] Johan Berniel: My wild card for tomorrow is going to be Walt van Aert. ... he's ambitious, he's in pretty good form."

Spencer reflects on van Aert's performance, noting his resilience and potential despite not being at his peak Tour de France form:

"[07:57] Spencer Martin: ...he's pulling on that climb... he's fit, he can sprint."

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Head-to-Head Betting Analysis

The hosts engage in a detailed head-to-head betting analysis, comparing various sprinters with corresponding odds:

• Tatya Piga (-186) vs. Jonas van der Garde (+134)

  "[09:23] Johan Berniel: Jonas."

  "[09:24] Spencer Martin: Jonas. I like that because he's positive..."

• Binian Girmay (-164) vs. Cayden Groves (+118)

  "[09:38] Johan Berniel: We. We forgot about GMAI."

• Tim Merlier (-184) vs. Jonathan Milan (+100)

  "[09:51] Spencer Martin: Okay. Tim. Earlier -184 versus Jonathan Milan plus 100."

• Primos Roglic (-225) vs. Felis G (-180) & Oscar Onley (-118) vs. Florian Lipowitz (-118)

  "[10:00] Johan Berniel: ...Primo's not gonna fight the sprint."

Spencer and Johan navigate through the complexities of betting lines, offering their preferences and rationale for each matchup.

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Green Jersey Competition and Future Stages

The discussion transitions to the broader implications for the green jersey:

"[12:15] Johan Berniel: I think Bogachar."

"[12:25] Johan Berniel: So, yeah, yeah, Milan needs to win tomorrow and then on stage 20..."

Both hosts analyze how upcoming stages, especially Stage 21, will influence the final standings. They emphasize the importance of consistent point scoring and strategic sprint finishes in the concluding stages of the Tour.

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Final Thoughts and Predictions

As the episode wraps up, both Johan and Spencer share their final predictions:

• Johan remains optimistic about Talepoga securing the green jersey, considering the current competition dynamics.

  "[13:08] Spencer Martin: And we should say like stages 18 and 19..."

• Spencer highlights the significance of Stage 17 in determining the green jersey's fate, urging listeners to stay tuned for future episodes covering the upcoming alpine stages.

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Conclusion

The "Tour de France Stage 17 Preview | OUTCOMES" episode of THEMOVE offers a comprehensive analysis of the upcoming stage, blending expert insights with betting strategies. Johan Berniel and Spencer Martin provide listeners with a nuanced understanding of the race dynamics, key contenders, and the critical factors that could influence the green jersey competition. Whether you're a dedicated cycling enthusiast or a sports bettor, this episode equips you with the knowledge to engage deeply with one of cycling's most prestigious events.

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Notable Quotes:

• "[02:54] Johan Berniel: ...I'm predicting a bunch print. There's too much interest from several teams still to have a bunch print."

• "[07:19] Johan Berniel: My wild card for tomorrow is going to be Walt van Aert. ... he's ambitious, he's in pretty good form."

• "[12:15] Johan Berniel: I think Bogachar."

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Timestamps Reference:

• 00:20 – Discussion begins with the prediction of a bunch sprint.
• 02:54 – Further analysis on the likelihood of a bunch sprint.
• 03:55 – Examination of sprinters’ odds and favorites.
• 07:19 – Introduction of a wild card pick.
• 09:23 – Head-to-head betting analysis commences.
• 12:15 – Conversation shifts to the green jersey competition.
• 13:08 – Final predictions and thoughts.

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Note: All betting odds and predictions are based on the discussion between hosts and should be independently verified before making any betting decisions.

Transcript

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[Johan Berniel]

Spencer I cannot see any other outcome than a breakaway than a bunch print. Numerous reasons. There's, you know, there's heavy favorites in terms of sprinting. The two of them are Merlier and Milan. And especially the battle for green is still very tight between Jonathan Milan and Talepogaar. Tomorrow is a stage where Milan has to score points both in the intermediate sprint and preferably also in a bunch sprint where if he finishes first or second or third, he scores very valuable points. Otherwise, I think the green jersey is in danger. So I'm predicting a bunch print.

[Spencer Martin]

Hi, I'm Spencer Martin along with Johan Berniel, and this is Outcomes. Outcomes is for informational entertainment purposes only. Nothing in this podcast should be considered financial advice. Please gamble responsibly and if you or someone you know has a gambling problem, seek help from a professional resource. Hosts and guests may have financial interests in the bets discussed. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Everybody. Welcome back to Outcomes. I'm Spencer Martin. I'm here with Johan Berniel. We are predicting and previewing stage 17 of the Tour de France 160 kilometer stage with two categorized climbs. The important thing is there's a sprint point and there's a finishing point. So Jonathan Milan and his little Trek team will be looking to secure the green jersey by holding this thing together. I'll list off the odds, then we'll try to preview and predict who will win and how it will play out. But before I do that, if you want to bet and you don't know how to, don't worry about it because we have a partner. Nextbets go to nxtbets.com betoutcomes it will show you exactly where to bet wherever you live. It customizes it to wherever you're browsing from, and it shows you the best bets at each site and the signup bonuses. So if you want to bet $5 at some sites you get $150, 150 free dollars to go on top of that. So I highly recommend checking that out if you have not already. And even if you have, there's also new signup bonuses available. But Johan the winner. This I'm just reading from Unibet and we'll call it out when we see better prices, like 10 earlier. Plus 130 on Unibet. He's actually plus 175 on bet3. He's the favorite. Jonathan Milan at plus 250. W. Benart. Plus 1100. Jordy Mayos. Plus 1400. Arno Del. Plus 1800. Kaden Groves. Plus 2200. Ben Garaya. Plus 2500. Jonas Operhunsen. Plus 3300. Alberto Dianese. If this was the juror Italia, that's the pick. Plus 5000. It goes on and on. We'll call him out when we need to. But Johan, how do you think this plays out? Breakaway or sprint? And who do you think wins?

[Johan Berniel]

Spencer? I cannot see any other outcome than a breakaway than a bunch sprint. Numerous reasons. There's, you know, there's heavy favorites in terms of sprinting. The two of them are Merlier and Milan. And especially the battle for green is still very tight between Jonathan Milan and Talepoga. Tomorrow is a stage where Milan has to score points both in the intermediate sprint and preferably also in a bunch print where if he finishes first or second or third, he scores very valuable points. Otherwise, I think the green jersey is in danger. So I'm predicting a bunch print. There's too much interest from several teams still to have a bunch print. And I'm going to go for my fellow Belgian, Tim Merlier. Plus 130 is the heavy favorite, but I think that Merlier has the best chances to win this sprint.

[Spencer Martin]

Yeah, that I actually like that pick a lot, especially plus 175 at 365, down to plus 150 as we're speaking, because Merlier's been chilling. He's been doing nothing while Jonathan Milan's jumping at the beginning of every stage, trying to get in the breakaway. It's not been working out, partly because he's so dang tall. Everyone can draft off of him. But Johan, I'm looking at. We have a model that one of our listeners sent over for this green jersey. And if Pagatra wins the two, two mountain stages, pretty much Merlier has to win tomorrow or, sorry, Milan has to win tomorrow and be placed fourth or higher in the intermediate sprint to win the green jersey. I think little track's going to hold this together and I'm going to go. I'm not going to overcomplicate this. Jonathan Milan, he looks a little tired, but he's getting to a stage that he likes. I cannot believe he's not. He's such an underdog because he is so fast. I'M going to go Milan plus 250, I think, I think even he's actually plus 300 now on a book that I cannot find. But make sure you check your, your Milan odds. If you're betting on Milan, it is bet365. He's plus 300 to get that price from Milan is incredible. And I think his team will have help. They will not have to burn themselves to pull this breakaway back. So he will have a lead out, which is the key thing for him.

[Johan Berniel]

Yeah, yeah. I mean, you know, listen, Spencer, they're all tired, right? And sprinters are special. So I, I, I can, I can give Milan some, some chance. When a sprinter sees the line, you know, I've seen sprinters who are dead, who still, still win the sprint. Milan is different. You know, he's, he's a power sprinter. He's, it's maybe a bit more because we've seen him suffer a little bit the, the last few stages, but it's out of necessity also, you know, he, he really needs those points. So I think those are the two heavy favorites, me and, and, and Jonathan Milan for the, for the stage in.

[Spencer Martin]

In theory he will have like Vontu is hurting him less than Merlier because he's just a better climber than Merlier in practice. I don't know if that's actually playing out, but that, if you assume that to be true, that is.

[Johan Berniel]

Yeah, but the last week of the Tour, man, those, those rules don't work anymore. It's whoever has something left, they're also tired. And especially, let's not forget the speeds have been unbelievably high.

[Spencer Martin]

Yeah, they have.

[Johan Berniel]

It takes a toll, you know, I mean, it just depends who is still, I mean, a bit fresh. That's why I say maybe advantage Schmidtlier, because he's not been spending any energy for points or for sprinters points. And he's been focusing on today's stage. On tomorrow's stage.

[Spencer Martin]

Yeah, with those like today it was so fast going into Vontu, a smart person probably logged on and live bet Valentin Perry Pontra just thinking this breakaway might not get caught because Niels Pollitt can't be expected to hold a gap to a group going 32 miles an hour. And this is the lightest man in this group, so he'll probably win. And that person was rewarded probably with quite a bit of money. So congratulations. But if Mirlier doesn't win, do you have a wild card pick?

[Johan Berniel]

My wild card for tomorrow is going to be Walt van Aert. He's plus 1100. It's true we haven't seen Walt Van Aert at the same level like we used to see him in his glory days in the Tour de France, but it's still Walt Van Aert. He's ambitious, he's in pretty good form. And in the last. Well, Van Aert is actually a guy. That thing I just said about the sprinters is probably the opposite for vanart. He is usually really good in the last week. So I'm going to take him as my wild card, especially because at + 1100, it's very interesting.

[Spencer Martin]

I actually found him at + 1600 on FanDuel in the US he looked pretty good today. I mean, we've been talking about how he's not the same W. But he was pulling on that climb after, I believe, after Matteo Jorgensen was dropped. So he's fit, he can sprint. I. I was tempted to pick this myself, but I'm going against my heart and just picking someone. I. I feel like your son's heart. I know. Don't tell. Hopefully he doesn't listen to this show.

[Johan Berniel]

He's the number one waltz and October son.

[Spencer Martin]

Oh, man. He's probably talking about him right now. He's probably talking about why didn't Ben Healy not win today. He calls me and asks, like, how Wild's doing in the gc. It's like, we don't need to talk about that. Let's move on from that conversation. But I. I imagine tomorrow could be a stage. If there's going to be any stage where you're like, how did that guy win in the sprint? It's tomorrow. I'm going to go. Kate. Like we remember, Jordy May was one on the champs. Liz. That's what I'm expecting. So Kaden Groves, plus 2500. He is good when everybody else is tired. And as we just said, everyone's going to be pretty tired. I'm going to go Kaden Groves.

[Johan Berniel]

Okay.

[Spencer Martin]

So let's take a quick break and then we'll do our head to heads, which have been keeping us afloat in this fallow period. We're in. All right, we're back. Johan. This is on Fanduel in the US Tatya Piga, minus 186 versus Jonas van der Garde, plus 134.

[Johan Berniel]

Jonas.

[Spencer Martin]

Jonas. I like that because he's positive. And I think this is a coin flip. Binian Girmay, minus 164 versus Cayden Groves, plus 118.

[Johan Berniel]

We. We forgot about GMAI.

[Spencer Martin]

I know.

[Johan Berniel]

Yeah. I think Kaden Groves. Man, it's, it's. Yeah. Kane groves.

[Spencer Martin]

Okay. Tim. Earlier -184 versus Jonathan Milan plus 100.

[Johan Berniel]

I'm afraid I have to say Malir. Malir is on stage.

[Spencer Martin]

People are out on Milan. Primus Roglic - 225 vs. Felis G - 180. 158. It's like a weird line is hopefully over. Guys, let me check that. Is that real? That is such an odd. That's real, huh? I would frankly just pick Gall based on why is it so skewed on a sprint stage?

[Johan Berniel]

Yeah, yeah. Let's. Let's go. FedEx. Primos doesn't. Primo's not gonna fight the stress.

[Spencer Martin]

Why is Primos A -2 25 favorite? Oscar Onley -118 vs Florian Lipowitz -1 18. So true. Coin flip.

[Johan Berniel]

Yeah, Probably Oscar only. Yeah, I would think he's a better bike handler. Doesn't really, I mean, it's difficult this one, you know, because these guys are not going to sprint. They're going to make sure they're there at the 3 kilometer sign. If it's 3 kilometers, I mean, some, some of the stages are 5 kilometers and one stage was the 4 kilometer rule. I think I know. Yeah, I would need to check, but you know, they're just going to go to that point and then make sure that there's no gaps in the last corner and that's it. You know, they don't really care. So.

[Spencer Martin]

Yeah.

[Johan Berniel]

But let's go for Oscar only.

[Spencer Martin]

Okay. Oscar only. And what's weird is like, even if you look at the. The website that doesn't have it listed on the stage and you're like, what, what. Why is the secret information before we go? Just wanted to check in on the green jersey. Yesterday you picked PAGAT chart plus 500. In retrospect, a great pick because the other person at +500 was Matthew Vanderpoel and he dropped out overnight, which has really changed the green jersey competition. I think if you. I. They don't even have the odds up right now for the points classification. I think it's confusing a lot of the books, but if you got that, I still think that's a pretty good bet. But who do you. From here on in, who's your favorite to win green?

[Johan Berniel]

I think Bogachar.

[Spencer Martin]

I think Picachar too. Only if I think there's a good chance he wins on stage 21.

[Johan Berniel]

Well, he's going to score points on stage 21. Where, where Milan. There's There's a decent possibility he doesn't score points, especially if it's real racing in those last three laps, which there will be.

[Spencer Martin]

Yeah.

[Johan Berniel]

So, yeah, yeah, Milan needs to win tomorrow and then on stage 20. But that's probably going to be a breakaway.

[Spencer Martin]

It's middle of the stage.

[Johan Berniel]

Yeah, always, always a breakaway. So, yeah, I'm going to go for Pogacha for the green jersey.

[Spencer Martin]

And we should say like stages 18 and 19. Sure. If you look at the map, the sprint point is right at the beginning of the stage, but it's up. It's like they start on climbs and if you've ever watched the beginning of a stage like that, it is crazy fast. Like it's hard for sprinters to even stay in the group. So, yeah, we'll be interesting to watch those. I don't think he scores any points on those days. Yeah, so he kind of has to win tomorrow. It's actually going to be fascinating to watch. All right, well, anything else, JOHAN on stage 17?

[Johan Berniel]

No, that's it.

[Spencer Martin]

All right, thank you. And we will be back to preview the first of our alpine stages tomorrow.

[Johan Berniel]

Okay, Spencer, thanks.

[Spencer Martin]

All right, bye.

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