Podcast Summary: THEMOVE – "Tour de France Stage 17 Preview | OUTCOMES"

Release Date: July 22, 2025

Introduction

In the "Tour de France Stage 17 Preview" episode of THEMOVE, hosts Johan Berniel and Spencer Martin delve deep into the upcoming 160-kilometer Stage 17 of the Tour de France. This episode, part of the "OUTCOMES" segment, focuses on analyzing potential outcomes, predicting stage winners, and discussing the implications for the green jersey competition. The conversation is rich with insights, betting odds, and strategic considerations that cater to both avid cycling fans and sports bettors.

Stage 17 Overview

Spanning 160 kilometers, Stage 17 features two categorized climbs and presents strategic points for both sprinters and breakaway specialists. The stage includes an intermediate sprint and a final sprint finish, making it a crucial day for contenders aiming to secure or defend the green jersey.

Predicting the Stage Outcome: Breakaway vs. Bunch Sprint

Johan Berniel initiates the discussion by emphasizing the high likelihood of a bunch sprint rather than a breakaway:

"[00:20] Johan Berniel: I cannot see any other outcome than a breakaway than a bunch sprint. Numerous reasons..."

He points out the dominance of heavyweight sprinters like Merlier and Milan, highlighting the tight competition for the green jersey between Jonathan Milan and Talepogaar.

Spencer Martin concurs, adding that the interest from multiple teams increases the chances of a bunch sprint:

"[02:54] Johan Berniel: ...I'm predicting a bunch print. There's too much interest from several teams still to have a bunch print."

Key Sprinters and Betting Odds

The conversation shifts to analyzing the top sprinters and their respective betting odds from various bookmakers:

• Tim Merlier is identified as the heavy favorite with favorable odds:

  "[03:55] Spencer Martin: ...plus 130 on Unibet. He's actually plus 175 on bet3. He's the favorite."

• Jonathan Milan, while slightly behind Merlier, remains a strong contender:

  "[04:00] Spencer Martin: ...Jonathan Milan, it is bet365. He's plus 300 to get that price from Milan is incredible."

• Other sprinters like W. Benart, Jordy Mayos, Arno Del, Kaden Groves, Ben Garaya, and Jonas Operhunsen are also mentioned with their respective odds, indicating the depth of competition.

Strategies for Securing the Green Jersey

Both hosts discuss the strategic maneuvers necessary for Jonathan Milan to maintain his lead in the green jersey standings:

"[02:54] Johan Berniel: ...Jonathan Milan and Talepoga... Milan has to score points both in the intermediate sprint and preferably also in a bunch sprint..."

Spencer adds that Milan may receive team support to conserve energy and control the race dynamics:

"[04:20] Spencer Martin: ...his team will have help. They will not have to burn themselves to pull this breakaway back."

Wild Card Pick: Walt van Aert

Johan introduces a wild card pick, Walt van Aert, with enticing odds of +1100:

"[07:19] Johan Berniel: My wild card for tomorrow is going to be Walt van Aert. ... he's ambitious, he's in pretty good form."

Spencer reflects on van Aert's performance, noting his resilience and potential despite not being at his peak Tour de France form:

"[07:57] Spencer Martin: ...he's pulling on that climb... he's fit, he can sprint."

Head-to-Head Betting Analysis

The hosts engage in a detailed head-to-head betting analysis, comparing various sprinters with corresponding odds:

• Tatya Piga (-186) vs. Jonas van der Garde (+134)

  "[09:23] Johan Berniel: Jonas."

  "[09:24] Spencer Martin: Jonas. I like that because he's positive..."

• Binian Girmay (-164) vs. Cayden Groves (+118)

  "[09:38] Johan Berniel: We. We forgot about GMAI."

• Tim Merlier (-184) vs. Jonathan Milan (+100)

  "[09:51] Spencer Martin: Okay. Tim. Earlier -184 versus Jonathan Milan plus 100."

• Primos Roglic (-225) vs. Felis G (-180) & Oscar Onley (-118) vs. Florian Lipowitz (-118)

  "[10:00] Johan Berniel: ...Primo's not gonna fight the sprint."

Spencer and Johan navigate through the complexities of betting lines, offering their preferences and rationale for each matchup.

Green Jersey Competition and Future Stages

The discussion transitions to the broader implications for the green jersey:

"[12:15] Johan Berniel: I think Bogachar."

"[12:25] Johan Berniel: So, yeah, yeah, Milan needs to win tomorrow and then on stage 20..."

Both hosts analyze how upcoming stages, especially Stage 21, will influence the final standings. They emphasize the importance of consistent point scoring and strategic sprint finishes in the concluding stages of the Tour.

Final Thoughts and Predictions

As the episode wraps up, both Johan and Spencer share their final predictions:

• Johan remains optimistic about Talepoga securing the green jersey, considering the current competition dynamics.

  "[13:08] Spencer Martin: And we should say like stages 18 and 19..."

• Spencer highlights the significance of Stage 17 in determining the green jersey's fate, urging listeners to stay tuned for future episodes covering the upcoming alpine stages.

Conclusion

The "Tour de France Stage 17 Preview | OUTCOMES" episode of THEMOVE offers a comprehensive analysis of the upcoming stage, blending expert insights with betting strategies. Johan Berniel and Spencer Martin provide listeners with a nuanced understanding of the race dynamics, key contenders, and the critical factors that could influence the green jersey competition. Whether you're a dedicated cycling enthusiast or a sports bettor, this episode equips you with the knowledge to engage deeply with one of cycling's most prestigious events.

Notable Quotes:

• "[02:54] Johan Berniel: ...I'm predicting a bunch print. There's too much interest from several teams still to have a bunch print."

• "[07:19] Johan Berniel: My wild card for tomorrow is going to be Walt van Aert. ... he's ambitious, he's in pretty good form."

• "[12:15] Johan Berniel: I think Bogachar."

Timestamps Reference:

• 00:20 – Discussion begins with the prediction of a bunch sprint.
• 02:54 – Further analysis on the likelihood of a bunch sprint.
• 03:55 – Examination of sprinters’ odds and favorites.
• 07:19 – Introduction of a wild card pick.
• 09:23 – Head-to-head betting analysis commences.
• 12:15 – Conversation shifts to the green jersey competition.
• 13:08 – Final predictions and thoughts.

Note: All betting odds and predictions are based on the discussion between hosts and should be independently verified before making any betting decisions.