Tour de France Stage 19 Preview | OŪTCOMES

Summary

Podcast Summary: THEMOVE – Tour de France Stage 19 Preview | OUTCOMES

Podcast Information

• Title: THEMOVE
• Host/Author: Lance Armstrong
• Episode: Tour de France Stage 19 Preview | OUTCOMES
• Release Date: July 24, 2025
• Description: In this episode, Lance Armstrong delves into the intricacies of Stage 19 of the Tour de France, providing expert analysis and predictions. Joined by guest Spencer Martin and Johan Berniel, the discussion offers deep insights into the race dynamics, favorite contenders, and strategic maneuvers that could influence the stage's outcome.

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1. Introduction

The episode begins with Spencer Martin welcoming listeners to "Outcomes," a segment dedicated to previewing and predicting the outcomes of key stages in the Tour de France. Joined by Johan Berniel, the hosts set the stage for an in-depth analysis of Stage 19, emphasizing its significance in the overall race.

2. Stage Overview

Stage 19 Details:

• Route: Albertville to La Plonge
• Distance: 129 km
• Profile: Multiple high mountain passes with a challenging final climb of approximately 20 km at an average gradient of 7.2%.
• Significance: This stage is pivotal for the General Classification (GC) contenders, presenting a tough mountain challenge that could reshuffle the rankings.

3. Favorites and Betting Odds

The hosts present a list of favorites for Stage 19, accompanied by their respective betting odds:

• Tadipra Gachar: +100
• Jonas Finard: +900
• Sepkus: +1000
• Michael Storr: +1600
• Felix G.: +1800
• Santiago Butrago: +1800
• Adam Yates: +2000
• Valentin Perry Poncho: +2200
• Ben O'Connor: +2500

Notable Quote:

“The favorites for the day though, Tadipra Gachar plus 100.”
– Spencer Martin [07:03]

4. Host Predictions and Analysis

Spencer Martin's Perspective

Spencer expresses confidence in Tadipra Gachar, highlighting his consistent performance in final mountain stages. He believes Gachar's ability to control the race dynamics makes him a strong contender for the stage win.

“I'm going to go Pagacha, though, just take the double your money because, man, he looked easy today.”
– Spencer Martin [04:22]

Additionally, Spencer discusses the potential of Sepkus emerging from the breakaway, noting his resurgence in form.

“Sepkus is a really good pick for that, too.”
– Spencer Martin [04:22]

Johan Berniel's Insights

Johan anticipates a breakaway dominated by familiar faces from recent mountain stages, particularly favoring Sepkus to seize the stage victory. He critiques Visma's strategy, suggesting they might shift focus from protecting the GC to securing a stage win.

“There's going to be a breakaway, but it's going to be all the same guys we've seen already in the last few mountain stages.”
– Johan Berniel [03:10]

Johan also underscores the challenges Jonas Finard faces in contesting the stage win, emphasizing the lack of viable competitors within the GC group.

“I can't see Jonas winning this... he is defending his jersey.”
– Johan Berniel [05:40]

5. Notable Discussions

Team Strategies and Rider Relationships

A significant portion of the conversation revolves around team dynamics and rivalries. The hosts discuss the strained relationship between Pogachar and the Visma team, highlighting how internal conflicts can influence race outcomes.

“They do not like each other. And you know, I mean, at least, I mean, who knows what's going on in terms of conversations within the team.”
– Johan Berniel [07:35]

Historical Context: Armstrong and Pantani Incident

Spencer and Johan reflect on a past incident where Lance Armstrong attempted to gift a stage win to Marco Pantani, which backfired and led to controversy within the peloton.

“Last year, I think if I remember correctly, you know, he did something similar.”
– Johan Berniel [08:10]

This anecdote serves as a cautionary tale about the complexities of team tactics and the unpredictability of race strategies.

6. Betting Strategies

The hosts transition into discussing specific betting options for Stage 19, leveraging platforms like FanDuel. They analyze potential value bets based on the day's race developments.

“If the breakaway stays away, this is why you would bet on it.”
– Spencer Martin [12:17]

Notable bets discussed include:

• Tadipra Gachar (-650) vs. Jonas Vinadgaard (+390)
• Ben Healy (-290) vs. Jordan Jat (+162H)
• Roglic (+230) vs. Oscar Onlay (-330)

“Roglic plus 230 to beat Onley. It's pretty interesting.”
– Spencer Martin [14:58]

7. Conclusion

The episode wraps up with Spencer and Johan setting the stage for the final day of the Tour de France, promising more analysis and predictions in the next episode. They encourage listeners to stay tuned for updates and further insights as the race concludes.

“We will talk tomorrow to predict stage 20. But have a great evening and we'll talk soon.”
– Spencer Martin [15:19]

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Key Takeaways:

• Stage 19 is a decisive mountain stage that could significantly impact the Tour de France's GC standings.
• Tadipra Gachar and Sepkus emerge as strong contenders, with strategies focusing on breakaways and stage control.
• Team dynamics, especially tensions between key riders and their teams, play a crucial role in race outcomes.
• Historical incidents like the Armstrong-Pantani episode highlight the delicate balance of race tactics.
• Betting strategies are discussed in detail, offering listeners insights into potential value bets based on race analysis.

Notable Quotes:

• “I'm going to go Pagacha, though, just take the double your money because, man, he looked easy today.”
  – Spencer Martin [04:22]

• “They do not like each other. And you know, I mean, at least, I mean, who knows what's going on in terms of conversations within the team.”
  – Johan Berniel [07:35]

• “Roglic plus 230 to beat Onley. It's pretty interesting.”
  – Spencer Martin [14:58]

This episode of THEMOVE offers a comprehensive preview of Stage 19, blending expert analysis with strategic insights, making it an invaluable resource for cycling enthusiasts and bettors alike.

Transcript

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[Spencer Martin]

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[Johan Berniel]

The sea today is at the wheel all the time. And it's his right because he's defending his jersey. Right? But I think it's kind of a bit, a bit easier to take little bits and pieces of time if, if you could just follow and you just wait until your big rival attacks.

[Spencer Martin]

It shows you why it's so hard to dig yourself out of a hole too. Because if you go down early, then what you're happening, what you're describing is playing out.

[Johan Berniel]

Yeah, because you know, if they're together, I can't see Jonas winning this. You know, Dade is not going to let him win. Not for, not if the stage win is up for grabs.

[Spencer Martin]

Hi, I'm Spencer Martin along with Johan Berniel and this is Outcomes.

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Outcomes is for informational and entertainment purposes only. Nothing in this podcast should be considered financial advice.

[Spencer Martin]

Please gamble responsibly and if you or someone you know has a gambling problem.

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[Spencer Martin]

Hosts and guests may have financial interests in the bets discussed. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Everybody welcome back to Outcomes. I'm Spencer Martin. I'm here with Johan Berniel. We are previewing and predicting stage 19 of the Tour de France Albertville to La Plonge 100 only 129 km. Multiple high mountain passes finishing atop just a short little 20 or 19k long climb at 7.2% average. So probably another tough mountain stage for the GC group. I will list off the favorites and then we'll Johan and I will predict who's going to win and how it's going to Play out. Before I do that, remember, we have a partner. NextBets. Go to nxtbets.com betoutcomes to see all the best offers. Where you live, where you can bet it walks you through, will give you free money. Like if you open an account at a certain book, you might bet $5 and get 150 free dollars. So make sure you check that out as we head in on these last few stages. The favorites for the day though, Tadipra Gachar plus 100. You double your money if he wins. Jonas Finard plus 900. Sepkus plus 1000. Michael Storr plus 1600. Felix G, plus 1800. Santiago Butrago plus 1800. Adam Yates plus 2000. Valentin Perry Poncho plus 2200. Ben OConnor plus 2500. It goes on and on. We'll call him out when we need to. But Johan, how do you think this is going to play out and who do you think is going to win?

[Johan Berniel]

Difficult one, Spencer. You know, it's a short stage, last mountain stage, so, um, obviously we're. There's going to be a breakaway, but it's going to be all the same guys we've seen already in the last few mountain stages. You know, to not always go with the char, because I know, I know you're going to pick him. I'm going to go with a guy from the breakaway tomorrow, and that's going to be Sepkus. I think Sepkus is getting back to a level that we are expecting from him. I would think that normally tomorrow. I think Visma has tried everything already. If I were them, I would go for the stage win instead of, you know, trying and then losing time again, which is going to happen. I cannot see any crack, even the tiniest one, in the armor of Tarepo Gachar. I can see Sepkus going in the breakaway, especially because it's uphill from the start and that the breakaway of some people of the breakaway remain in front. And Sebkus takes the win. He's plus 1000. So I think that's really good opportunity. Put some money on him.

[Spencer Martin]

Yeah, he's in. He's coming into form. And Pagacha, I am going to pick Tadpagachar. I'm just going to keep picking him because I think he will win. Because when he can, he tends to win the final mountain stages of these tours. We saw him do it last year borderline unnecessarily. This would also be somewhat unnecessary. But there's nothing left for him to save energy For I think today he was holding back because tomorrow is a tough mountain stage. But it's not a guarantee, as we saw. If the pace dies, he's not going to push the pace. He's going to sit there and mark Jonas Vindegaard. And if Jonas's teammate Sepkus is up the road, Jonas isn't going to chase him. So there's a very limited number of people physically who can win this, and Sepkus is one of them, and he could find himself in a position where he could win. So it's not. It's not a terrible pick. I'm going to go Pagacha, though, just take the. Take the double your money because, man, he looked easy today. And there's no way anyone else in that GC group is going to win because we saw him today. I don't think he got out of the saddle one time today. And when he accelerated at the end, he's putting time into vinegar, which tells me vinegar is probably on his last leg here. If you think GC group, go with Bogachar. If you think breakaway, Sepkus is a really good pick for that, too.

[Johan Berniel]

Yeah, I mean, you know, in. In. It's true. Pogachar is.

[Spencer Martin]

Is.

[Johan Berniel]

Has the upper hand. I don't think he's that much stronger than Jonas. You know, I mean, he keeps taking little bits of time, but let's not forget that Jonas is either attacking or at the end, he is pulling. He probably not pulling 100, but he, you know, today is at the wheel all the time. And it's his right because he's defending his jersey. Right. But I think it's kind of a bit. A bit easier to take little bits and pieces of time if. If you could just follow and you just wait until your big rival attacks.

[Spencer Martin]

It shows you why it's so hard to dig yourself out of a hole, too, because if you go down early, then what you're happening, what you're describing is playing out.

[Johan Berniel]

Yeah. Because, you know, if they're together and I can't see Jonas winning this, you know, today is not going to let him win. Not first, not if the stage win is up for grabs.

[Spencer Martin]

No. Would you, if you were Jonas, would you want to be gifted the stage?

[Johan Berniel]

Last year, I think if I remember correctly, you know, he did something similar. He was pulling and at the end, Pogacha sprinted and Jonas said, I. At some point I thought he was going to give me the stage or something. He didn't data.

[Spencer Martin]

I. I do remember that. And Jonas Pagacha, like Pulverized him in the sprint.

[Johan Berniel]

Yeah, no, but, you know, listen, it's always nice to win a stage, but, but you know, Jonas came here for something different. You know, whether he wins the stage or not, that's not going to be, that's not going to make or break his, his season or his Tour de France. Right.

[Spencer Martin]

It's also a contentious relationship currently between. Because Piga chart, he apparently he ran into the Visma car. He didn't have to say anything about it. And then he comes out and says that they break checked him.

[Johan Berniel]

Yeah.

[Spencer Martin]

Which is pretty big allegation. Yeah. So I don't think he's going to be gifting them stages anytime soon.

[Johan Berniel]

No, no, it's. There's no. Listen, I mean, they, I think they respect each other, but they don't like each other. They do not like each other. And you know, I mean, at least, I mean, who knows what's going on in terms of conversations within the team. But you can clearly see that today does not like Visma, which is kind of logical because, you know, at the end of the day, they're making his life difficult. Right. And rightfully so. That's. That's what they should do. Right. But it's, it's hard, it's difficult to like the team of your biggest rival. It's very difficult.

[Spencer Martin]

And remember, didn't like Lance tried to gift the stage to Pantani and it blew up in his face, so.

[Johan Berniel]

Well, yeah, I mean, blew up in his face. Lance gifted the stage and then Pantani denied that. He said that he didn't get. He didn't get gifted the stage. But anyways, I told L to give the stage, so.

[Spencer Martin]

And then he got in trouble from Eddie Merk. So. Yeah, listen to Eddie. If it's not Pagatra, though, I found someone I thought looked pretty good today. Felix G+2000. I kind of. I like G. Technically he can't get in the break because he's sitting sixth on gc. But these time gaps, time gaps are so big.

[Johan Berniel]

Yeah.

[Spencer Martin]

And frankly, the people behind are so weak and tired that I don't think they could stop them. Yeah. And dead. And like, who's to say G could not have attacked where for some reason, if you noticed, Vinderard was chasing down G when he attacked? I don't think he needed to do that and I think could have. Yeah. He was right on G's wheel and then Pagatra was right behind him. Maybe he was trying to keep him from bridging up to Jorgensen. That raises a Lot of weird questions. Why are they. Why is Jonas putting his energy into marking breakaway escapees for his teammate that's going for the stage win? But G could get clear like that, just like Mateo did.

[Johan Berniel]

He's. And where is he in the. What's. What's he at?

[Spencer Martin]

So he's sixth, but he's 15 minutes back.

[Johan Berniel]

No, I mean he's plus 1800.

[Spencer Martin]

Oh, plus I see him on FanDuel at plus 2200.

[Johan Berniel]

Okay.

[Spencer Martin]

No, it's plus 2000. Sorry. Plus 2000. So I'm gonna go golf for my wildcard.

[Johan Berniel]

Yeah, good. Since I think that if it's. If the GC riders get together, it's only Pogaccia who can win. And if we consider the GC riders, it's basically, it's Jonas. And today the others are miles behind, which they're not even a GC threat for both of those. Right. But I'm going to go for a rider who will also try to be in the break. He was in it today. He's been at every single mountain stage lately. On the Ventou. He won the stage to. What's it called? I don't. I forgot the name now in the Pyrenees. Oh, yeah.

[Spencer Martin]

What was that?

[Johan Berniel]

I forgot the name of the Finnish.

[Spencer Martin]

Was it super banier? Is that right?

[Johan Berniel]

Super bonier. Yeah. So tament Damon Arensmont plus 3300. He still looks like he has it today. He was in it again. And not every day is the same. But now on top of that, Carlos Rodriguez is out of the race. So completely free card. So Tamina Ahrensmann from the breakaway plus 3300 is going to be my second pick.

[Spencer Martin]

I like it. I mean, I was. We were talking before the show. Ahrensman was doing stuff today. Rarely do you see a rider win a stage like this from a breakaway that hasn't done anything yet. And Aaron's been. It sounds like we're going back to the well, but I would not write him off if a stage. If a breakaway gets a leash tomorrow. But let's take a quick break, Johan, and we'll get to our head. Heads, which you aced today, so people are definitely going to want it. You got everyone, right? So people will want to stick around and listen to that.

[Johan Berniel]

Okay, good. I like to hear that.

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[Spencer Martin]

All right, we're back. And these are on Fanduel in the U.S. yeah, these were key for us because we took a bath on that Pugachar pick today. The first one is this one you got right yesterday. Tadi Pugachar minus 650 versus Jonas Vinegaard plus 390. This is just in case the breakaway stays away. This is why you would bet on it.

[Johan Berniel]

Yeah. Yeah. Same Bo.

[Spencer Martin]

Yeah, there's. There's no gifts happening.

[Johan Berniel]

No.

[Spencer Martin]

Ben Healey minus 290 versus Jordan Jat plus 162H.

[Johan Berniel]

We haven't seen Ben Healy all day.

[Spencer Martin]

He was dropped pretty early.

[Johan Berniel]

Yeah. Yeah. I mean, these guys are tired. Like Jordan Jigat is. He's still. He's still up there in GC also. No, he is in what?

[Spencer Martin]

He is in amazing GC picture. Yeah. So he'll probably be in the break trying to get in there.

[Johan Berniel]

Yeah, yeah, yeah. Ben Healy gave a lot today also. He was. He. Yeah. Who's the. Who's the favorite for. Of those two?

[Spencer Martin]

It is Jegat plus. Sorry. Healy. Healy's the favorite. Minus 290.

[Johan Berniel]

Okay, let's go for Jordan Jigat.

[Spencer Martin]

Okay. Feel skull. Minus 116 versus Florian Lipowitz. Minus 116.

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Huh?

[Johan Berniel]

Man, Litwitz had a hard day today.

[Spencer Martin]

Yeah. Yes.

[Johan Berniel]

Felix Gal.

[Spencer Martin]

Okay. Oscar Onlay minus 330 versus Primos Roglich plus 230.

[Johan Berniel]

That's a difficult one.

[Spencer Martin]

The only thing about Roglic is he was riding in today looking.

[Johan Berniel]

Yeah. Like, not even trying.

[Spencer Martin]

No. So, like. And Oscar only was. It's like he was on a training ride or something. But not even a training ride. Like a going to the store.

[Johan Berniel]

Well, the question is, you know, what. What would Rob Roglich do when Lipovitz gets in problems? You know, will he stay with him today? I can kind of understand, especially on the last part. You know, it didn't really make any. I mean, does nothing. If he would have waited for him, it's so.

[Spencer Martin]

No, I think he might still.

[Johan Berniel]

I mean, I think Primus can still. He actually can still be on the podium.

[Spencer Martin]

I know.

[Johan Berniel]

Because is that not what he secretly, secretly wants to go for?

[Spencer Martin]

Probably.

[Johan Berniel]

Right.

[Spencer Martin]

I mean, no one's going to turn down a podium and he probably thinks liquids is cracking.

[Johan Berniel]

I'll go. Roglic gets in front of a grandly.

[Spencer Martin]

That actually might be the bet of the day, the more I think about it. Roglic plus 230 to beat Onley. It's pretty interesting. Again, last one, Simon Yates, minus 116 versus Sepkus, minus 116. Okay. All right. Anything else, Johan, before we take off?

[Johan Berniel]

That's it for me.

[Spencer Martin]

All right, well, we will talk tomorrow to predict stage 20. But have a great evening and we'll talk soon. Thanks, Spencer. Bye.

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