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- [00:00]
Spencer Martin
This episode is brought to you by Progressive Insurance. Do you ever think about switching insurance companies to see if you could save some cash? Progressive makes it easy to see if you could save when you bundle your home and auto policies. Try it@progressive.com Progressive Casualty Insurance Company and affiliates. Potential savings will vary. Not available in all states. You rarely see these guys as pinned on a Sprint stage as you saw today, and I'd imagine tomorrow's more of the same. That's going to give Pagatra the advantage. But I'm just. It's very hard for me to go against Matthew Vanderpoel on a. On a day like today. Picacho's got bigger fish to fry later in this race. Matthew Vanderpool Team four Stages JUST LIKE this hi, I'm Spencer Martin along with Johan Berniel, and this is Outcomes. Outcomes is for informational entertainment purposes only. Nothing in this podcast should be considered financial advice. Please gamble responsibly and if you or someone you know has a gambling problem, seek help from a professional resource. Hosts and guests may have financial interests in the bets discussed. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Everybody, welcome back to Outcomes. I'm Spencer Martin. I'm here with Johan Bernal. We're predicting stage two of the Tour de France. The longest stage of the race, 209km, goes through the hills, the steep hills of northern France, potentially French Flanders. Johan will tell us if that's true or not. Later in the show when we get into who's going to win, I'll list off the odds. I'm cherry picking the best odds and I'll try to call out when we select our riders where the best odds are. And in the meantime, if you're wondering, where can I bet? I would love to bet, but I just don't know how to. Well, NextBets has partnered with us, so you just have to go to nxtbets.com bet outcomes and you'll be taken to a page that shows you exactly where to bet where you live, personalized by where you're browsing from. And it shows you the best signup bonuses for the specific books that you can bet with. So check that out. The link is in the show notes, but the favorite for the stage, it's an uphill finish, so of course, Matthew Vanderpoel at plus 180. Teddy Picacher second at plus 400. W. Vanard at plus 1000. Thibaut niece at plus 1200. Axel Lawrence at plus 2800. Jonathan Milan at plus 3300 Binyam G plus 3400. Jasper Phillipson at plus 4000. Jonas Vinderard plus 4500. There's like a random generator came up with these, a list of riders. Johan, I've never seen a sprint stage and mountain stage so like smashed together. But who, who do you think is going to win this thing? Last time we came here, by the way, was 2012. Peter Sagan won in an uphill, maybe one of the more impressive finishes, like uphill finishes I've ever seen. He had enough time to sit up and like pretend to be running on his bike. Really an iconic win for him.
- [02:33]
Johan Berniel
Yeah, well, as you say, longest stage of the tour de France, 209 kilometers. I mean earlier, I mean like 20, 30 years ago, that's what I was just in a normal stage. But anyways, things have changed a lot. They go a lot faster nowadays. This is a hard final. It's a hard stage. Actually. It's nothing going to be nothing compared to today. Today was flattish. Tomorrow not, not at all the case, especially the final. The last 10 kilometers, there's two climbs of like 1 kilometer, a steep climb of about 10% and then straight after another, almost a kilometer 9%. And then there's like about 5 kilometers to the bottom of the last drag. That's not, that's not a kom. But it's still one kilometer, around three and a half, 4%. So I think in the final, Spencer, it's going to break up. It's not going to be a bunch print. Sprinters can't make it tomorrow. You know, this would usually be like, like, like a Sagan, right? I mean in the Sagan of the good days, this was ideal for him. You could say, okay, this is Thibaut nice, or like back in the days Philippe Gilbert would be there or something like that. The way these riders right now ride the GC guys, it's completely different. You know, if you look today it, you know, deep in the final it was actually Jonas Wingo who took the initiative and made the split, started the movement to make the split. So I think tomorrow the strong guys are going to be in front. I think this, he's, you know, he's, Jonas is going to be able to follow him. I think a kilometer, a kilometer climb is not long enough to drop him, but you know, he's fast. I can see attacks on that. On that third, I mean the third last climb, 1 km, 10% bogacha goes full gas and there's a select little group and, and he wins it in the sprint plus 400 is good odds. You know, I know, I know that there's a bigger favorite who you are gonna pick, but I'm gonna, I'm gonna pick tadepogachar to win the stage tomorrow.
- [04:59]
Spencer Martin
It's a pretty good pick. Plus you're not often gonna see Tadepogachar plus 400 on a tough uphill finish. So it is potentially like a once in a lifetime opportunity to get these odds. And you're right, it is a tough stage. 2000 meters of climbing, 3, 4 categorized climbs and it just, it's up and down all day. I mean you would know this region better than I would because you're from very close to it. It looks brutal. I mean as, as we saw today, just like nervous hard racing all the time. Like you, you rarely see these guys as pinned on a sprint stage as you saw today. And I'd imagine tomorrow's more of the same that's going to give Pagatra the advantage. But I'm just, it's very hard for me to go against Matthew Vanderpoel on a, on a day like today. Picacho's got bigger fish to fry later in this race. Matthew Vanderpool team four stages just like this. I, I've put everything left in my DraftKings account on Matthew Vanderpoel at +180. So hope, hope he wins or else I'll have to beg, beg the household to let me put more money in that account. But I'm going with Vanderpool to win this stage. This is what he came here for.
- [06:06]
Johan Berniel
Yeah, I think, I think he's, he's the right favorite, number one, you know, and especially also, you know, he was in that split, in that split this morning today and he, he, I mean a part of winning the stage. He can also take the yellow jersey tomorrow, which is a huge motivation. I don't think Philipson can keep the jersey, but Vanderpool's there and Vanderpool is probably not going to get dropped. I mean it would be. They would have to go really, really, really, really super fast. And they will on that, on that 1km 10 climb. But Vanderpool can do those efforts. You know, 1km is that he can do that and, and on top of that, if he gets in trouble and I think it's only on, on that climb of 1km 10%. I think it's only today and Jonas, who maybe he cannot follow, he's not going to be far behind and he will make it back because if today and Jonas go get away by themselves. They're not going to collaborate 100%. And, and, and Mathieu is not going to be far enough behind to not make it back. That's what I, I could envision. So I back you up completely with, with Matthew Van der Pool at 180. That's, that's a good choice.
- [07:28]
Spencer Martin
Yeah, it's a very good point because it's what we saw that two years ago in the Basque country where Teddy and Jonas get away. They look at each other and we saw this last year at the Tour multiple times where Jonas, it's a very smart strategy, just will not work with Pagachar because he doesn't want to get dropped. And then also, what's he going to pull Pagatra to this uphill finish? Pagatra wins, Vindo loses time. Why would you do that? It is kind of funny if I think about it. Why was Jonas working with Pagachar and Vanderpoel at stage one of the Doan? Now that I think about that is kind of strange. But what did we see there? Vinder attacks, Pagatra goes with him, and Vanderpoel's with him. And he was not, he was like, still building back from his injury then. So I, I, I think you're right. I don't think Vanderpoel is going to get dropped. I do think if Vanderpoel or Pagatro does not win this, it's because this finish is right for like, tactical wrinkles, let's call them. Like, things could get weird. I don't think a early breakaway is going to stay away. I think the climbs are too hard and the speed will be too fast behind. But if someone attacks from the front group, even like, let's say 30k to go, there's a 9% climb over a kilometer long. Like, stuff could get difficult to control, especially if Jonas and Tade are in the peloton. They're not going to worry about, let's say, Matteo Jorgensen riding away, like, getting.
- [08:52]
Johan Berniel
No, I mean, Spencer attacks from 30k to go won't make it, I think, because even if, you know it's so important to be in good position on those two steep climbs in the final, that the nervousness and the stress of the peloton will already take care of any breakaway, you know, they're not going to get far ahead even if you attack on one of those earlier climbs with 30k to go. So I can more envision a late attack. Like the two last climbs, the steep climbs they get away. Three, four guys, whatever. They look at each other and then somebody comes from behind because they don't. They don't find each other to collaborate. And from five to go. From five to go to one to go. That's. It's downhill and flattish, and that's where a move can go by somebody who's not Jonas and today and mature a little bit. The same like when the Yates brothers went away in the Basque country in stage one or two. Was it. Was it stage one?
- [10:00]
Spencer Martin
I think it was stage one. We had the Yeats.
- [10:03]
Johan Berniel
Yeah. Yeah. So, you know, they were not there. They came back and then they sneaked away because the other two were looking at each other. I could see that as a potential alternative for. For somebody else to win. And I'm going to pick Kevin Vocala. Kevin Vocala is. He's a good writer. He's in good shape. He just finished, I think. Was it second? I think he finished second or no, third in the French Championships. He was strong, did a great tour. The Swiss. So I could see him be there, you know, probably not gonna be right with them on those little climbs, but he can make it back in case there's some hesitation and he could take advantage and take a flyer. And if you have 15, 20 seconds at the bottom of that last climb, you know, one kilometer. One. What is it? 1.2 kilometer at 3.8%. You can keep it. So Kevin Voca, he's plus 8,000. So I think that's a really, really good price for a wild card.
- [11:05]
Spencer Martin
I like that price a lot. I mean, the guy's. He's red hot right now. He was second at Tour of Switzerland also. Do you remember who won stage two of the Tour de France last year? It was. Yeah. Different type of stage. I think the win would be different, but it's like same thing where he's. He's so strong, right? He's so strong, but he's not going to be marked. And he's. He can use that strength to, like, hold off. GC riders locked in the tactical battle behind. I think that's a very good pick. I'm going to go with someone else, though, and I think. I hope I'm not wrong here, but I think people are sleeping on this guy. They're putting dirt on the grave too early. Wout van are plus 1000. Wild van art. Think about that. On this type of stage is plus 1000. I have to bite on that. I mean, you won't see that very often. So, you know, is he sick? We don't know. Did he make the front group today? No. But, you know what we saw at the Giro? We saw him look terrible, and he was counted out. And then he wins stage nine, and he out sprints the guy who finishes, what, second overall on a tough climb? So I'm gonna go with Van Art. I think people are sleeping on him. Plus one.
- [12:11]
Johan Berniel
Yeah. Yeah. You know, I mean. I think. I mean, we don't know. We have no confirmation, but more or less the same happened with Walt. Then, just before the Giro, he also reportedly was sick. Now, he didn't. He wasn't able to start the Belgian Championships because of the stomach bug, apparently. You know, he was at the. He was at the start, actually. He was in the team hotel. So, I mean, it's not like he. He faked some kind of illness or something, when certain people have said that, you know, it was not serious and that it was kind of fake because, you know, in Belgium, you have to. It's an obligation for every professional to participate in the Belgian Championship.
- [12:52]
Spencer Martin
I didn't know that.
- [12:53]
Johan Berniel
Unless you have a. Yeah, it is. It is.
- [12:55]
Spencer Martin
Whoa.
- [12:56]
Johan Berniel
But, you know, in that case, he would never have gone to the team hotel. You know, he went. He was. Until he woke up and at breakfast, he went down for breakfast and said, hey, I'm. I'm not good. And he went home. So we don't know. We don't know if that's the reason why he was not there today or if it's just, you know, a moment of not paying attention or if it's because he's doesn't want to be fighting for position and really wants to save himself for when it really matters. But he definitely has the qualities to win a stage like tomorrow.
- [13:28]
Spencer Martin
And we have seen him opting out of these sprint. These fast sprint stages, at least as a stage contender. You know, Jonas had people with him. Well, didn't need to be up there. I. I think. I mean, we saw him at the zero, like, almost picking stages, like, I want to try to win this one. Not like in the past, where he tries to win everything and finishes between second and fifth on every stage of the Tour. I. I think he's strong. I. I wouldn't rule him out. I like it. But let's take a good pick.
- [13:55]
Johan Berniel
Plus. Plus 1000. That's. That's. That's a good price for. Wow.
- [13:58]
Spencer Martin
Bernard. It's. It's wild stuff. But let's take a quick break to hear from our partner, and then we will be back, and we'll get your head to head pics. Johan everybody. This episode is brought to you by hims. You might have noticed something about this Jo France other than the riders are all incredibly fast on their bike, but some of the best riders in the world have something in common other than that it's fantastic hair and we may never be as fast as them, but it doesn't mean we can't all copy their incredible heads of hair with hims. Hims makes it simple with doctor trusted clinically proven treatments like finasteride and minoxidil which are shown to regrow hair in as little as three to six months. You can choose from chewable spray serums, whatever fits your routine best. And the best part? It's 100% online. No office visits, no awkward pharmacy pickups. Just answer a few questions and a licensed provider will determine if treatment is right for you. If it is, they'll ship it straight to your door, discreetly and free of charge. No insurance needed. One low price cop covers everything. The treatment, the shipping and the ongoing medical support. Join hundreds of thousands of guys who've already used hims to regrow their hair and get your confidence back with visibly with a visibly thicker mop up there. Start your free visit online today@hims.com the move that's him s.com themove spelled out t H E M O V E for your personalized hair loss treatment options. Results vary based on studies of topical and oral minoxidil and finasteride. Prescription Prescription products require an online consultation with a healthcare provider who will determine if a prescription is appropriate. Restrictions apply. See website for full details and important safety information. All right, back to the show. All right, so we're back. Johan's head to head. Everyone loves these. I love them. Can't wait. Can't wait to have them back. So we didn't do them on stage one because that's feels like what reference point would we even have trying to pick head to head on stage one of the tour friends and I'm glad we didn't because that stage did not turn out like we thought it would. Both of our guys stuck behind not in the lead group but first one Jonas this is on FanDuel in the US is where I'm pulling these from Jonas Finard minus 172 versus Matus SC MOA plus 176. So if you don't know this if you bet $100 on you would have to bet $172 to win $100 on Jonas Vinegard you would have to bet $100 to win one 76 on Skelmosa. So Vinegar is the favorite here.
- [16:23]
Johan Berniel
Yeah. Tomorrow stage. I mean, Jonas, with what I've seen today, he has great legs. Yeah, even, even at minus. What is it? Minus 170.
- [16:37]
Spencer Martin
Minus 172. Not that bad actually.
- [16:39]
Johan Berniel
Yeah, Jonas, Jonas gets in front of Matthias tomorrow.
- [16:43]
Spencer Martin
I mean, mates didn't even make the front group today.
- [16:47]
Johan Berniel
Yeah, he had a few, he had a few problems. You know, I think he had two bike changes and was, was kind of. I mean today was actually a really hard stage. If you look at, you know, how people were suffering in the back and whatever problem you had, they were fighting to get back and they did not recover. I mean that was, it was almost 47km average beat. You know, it was really, really hard.
- [17:09]
Spencer Martin
Well, I mean we, we always joke about how people, they're wimps now the riders because the stages are shorter. But like this was not. I feel like in the past you would see like, it'd be kind of relaxing on it. You know, there's just people cruising around on these sprint stages. Today was like, it was like a crit that was almost four hours long. Like it was. He went towards.
- [17:28]
Johan Berniel
I mean, you see there's five riders in front. They never got more than two minutes. They got caught. Then two guys go. They never get more than a minute and that's it, you know, and yeah.
- [17:39]
Spencer Martin
Yeah, I mean, drop back to the car.
- [17:41]
Johan Berniel
It's the speed physically and also the stress of, you know, the nervousness. And the peloton takes a lot out of you too, you know.
- [17:47]
Spencer Martin
Yeah. So next one Remco have Napoleon minus one one 126 versus Primos Ragli minus 108. So the book's taking a cut here. Primos, Primos. I mean he used to be very good at these types of stages. Matthew Vanderpoel minus 205. Tada Pagachar plus 150.
- [18:09]
Johan Berniel
Okay. I mean I choose, I chose Pugacher to win. But you know, I kind of agree with you that Matthew Vanderpool is the favorite.
- [18:20]
Spencer Martin
This one's kind of interesting though because, well, like, what if, what if Vanderpoel just has an issue or doesn't win? He's not gonna try, right? He's not gonna try to get like fifth. But like Pugach is going to try to be as high up as possible.
- [18:35]
Johan Berniel
Yeah, yeah, that's. Yeah, yeah, yeah, yeah. Let's go. I mean it's positive. It's Positive. No, it's.
- [18:44]
Spencer Martin
Yeah, positive.
- [18:45]
Johan Berniel
Yeah.
- [18:45]
Spencer Martin
Plus 150. It's pretty good price.
- [18:48]
Johan Berniel
Then let's go for Pogacha.
- [18:50]
Spencer Martin
Okay. Oscar on Lee. Minus 172. Santiago Butrago. Haven't thought about him for a minute. Plus 126.
- [19:00]
Johan Berniel
Oscar only.
- [19:02]
Spencer Martin
I feel like. Yeah, he's got the hot hand right now. Julian Al Philippe. -116. Clement Shampoo Zan. -116. Do we know what happened to Alaphilippe today? Was that just a mechanical issue?
- [19:14]
Johan Berniel
No, no, no, no. He was dead. That's really bad.
- [19:18]
Spencer Martin
Yeah, that looked, I mean I didn't.
- [19:22]
Johan Berniel
See, I didn't see any mechanic. I mean he may have been held up by a crash or something, but I mean I didn't see him crash or anything. Didn't see bike change. He was just. Yeah, just not good. And then, I mean, we all know he doesn't ride. He doesn't, he doesn't ride for gc. So you know, it would be. And, and he kind of knows he can. He. I mean. Yeah. Well, in the primala, Philippe would probably be one of the favorites to win the stage tomorrow. Right. But yeah, I think those times are gone. Although he was in pretty good shape in the Tour of Switzerland. But.
- [19:58]
Spencer Martin
Still doesn't have to win though. Just has to be Clemishan.
- [20:01]
Johan Berniel
However, Shampoo Santa today also drops, I guess.
- [20:04]
Spencer Martin
Yeah, it's a really funny head to head because it's two riders. Shopuzon was 1:47th. He was five and a half minutes behind the winner, Al Philippe was 173rd. Six and a half minutes behind.
- [20:17]
Johan Berniel
Huh? Yeah.
- [20:19]
Spencer Martin
So now they're.
- [20:20]
Johan Berniel
I think I, I think Philippe doesn't even try tomorrow. Neither does Champus. So it's. They have no chance. I mean it's. Most of the, most of the guys won't. Once they're going to be. Once they're going to come in the final in the last 20k. It's going to be really, really fast and, and Champusa won't, won't fight for position and you know it's gonna split unavoidably. It's going to split and yeah, they're not gonna sprint. So it's a difficult one. I'm gonna sit out on this one. Who.
- [20:53]
Spencer Martin
Yeah, I mean that's, that's probably the smart move is Shampoo's not going to be working for anybody. I guess would be the question.
- [21:00]
Johan Berniel
No, no.
- [21:01]
Spencer Martin
So yeah. Yeah, that is maybe not a smart idea to bet on that because you might. You're just like betting on a coin flip, basically.
- [21:11]
Johan Berniel
And who do they have?
- [21:13]
Spencer Martin
Well, it would be like Mike Tunison or I guess would be the one. Right. But it's too hard for Mike Tunison.
- [21:20]
Johan Berniel
Yeah, yeah, yeah.
- [21:21]
Spencer Martin
Because the other options are Davide Ballerini. Too hard for him. Harold Tejada. I don't think he's fast enough. Right. Sergio Hagita.
- [21:31]
Johan Berniel
No, don't drop today.
- [21:33]
Spencer Martin
So, yeah, don't bet on this because it's a coin flip, but you're not getting 50. 50 odds like you're. You're taking.
- [21:40]
Johan Berniel
Yeah.
- [21:40]
Spencer Martin
Nick, no one's in the positive, so don't do it. Well, thanks, Johan. Anything else? Also, I just wanted to note this. The points jersey, if you ask for Phillips. And after all this talk about all these fast sprinters, he's already a plus 150 to win the points jersey. Milan 225 Grimai. A little bit more. Spectre 360. And then it drops off fast. So that picture is already clearing up quite quickly.
- [22:05]
Johan Berniel
Yeah. All right.
- [22:07]
Spencer Martin
All right, we'll talk tomorrow and hopefully this goes our way.