Tour de France Stage 3 Preview | OŪTCOMES

Summary

THEMOVE Podcast: Tour de France Stage 3 Preview | Outcomes
Release Date: July 6, 2025

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Introduction

In the Tour de France Stage 3 Preview episode of THEMOVE, hosts Spencer Martin and Johan Berniel delve deep into the upcoming 178-kilometer stage from Valenciennes to Dunkirk. This episode provides listeners with expert analysis, betting odds, and strategic predictions for one of cycling's most anticipated stages.

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Stage Overview

The hosts begin by outlining the route and key features of Stage 3.

Spencer Martin introduces the stage as:

“178km into Dunkirk from a city that's more inland. I'll let Johan say the pronunciation later in the stage. Simple, straightforward stage, at least on paper. Flat winds its way up to the coast.”
(00:28)

Despite appearing straightforward, the stage includes a Categorized Climb about 30 kilometers from the finish—the Mont Castle—which was previously featured in Stage 1, infamous for the spectacular KOM crash.

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Betting Odds and Favorites

The discussion transitions into betting odds, with Spencer outlining the initial favorites:

• Tim Merlier: +185
• Jonathan Milan: +225
• Jasper Fieldsman: +335
• V. G: +1600
• Jordy Mayos: +1800
• Soren Walken: +3200
• Benim Garmai: +3400
• Matthew Vanderpoel & Danny Van Poppel: +4600 each

Spencer Martin emphasizes Jaspers Fieldsman's strong position:

“The team is on an incredible high two out of two. So I think tomorrow we're going to see a three out of three for Alpecin-Cojant, with Jasper Fieldsman winning again.”
(02:14)

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Primary Prediction: Jasper Fieldsman vs. Tim Merlier

Johan Berniel supports Fieldsman's chances, citing his team’s momentum and solid lead-out train:

“The team is on an incredible high two out of two... Jasper Fieldsman winning again. He has the best lead out train. They're super confident and they're going to want to win.”
(02:14)

Spencer counters by favoring Tim Merlier, highlighting his speed and previous performances:

“I'm gonna go with him [Tim Merlier]. ...I think he's so incredibly fast. This stage is probably the one that would help him or give him like the biggest advantage that we'll have at this race because it is so flat relative to the rest of the sprint stages.”
(04:36)

Johan agrees, noting Merlier's expertise in handling varying train conditions:

“Merlier is a master in surfing other trains... if Merlier locks himself onto the train of Alpecin and it's tailwind or not headwind, at least the speed is higher and they can't come from all different sides.”
(06:32)

Ultimately, Spencer decides to back Tim Merlier at +190, believing his speed gives him the edge in this flat stage.

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Alternative Picks: Jonathan Milan and Binyam Garmai

In case of an upset, Johan proposes Jonathan Milan as a strong alternative:

“Jonathan Milan, whenever there's a sprint, he, he needs to be, he needs to be one of the guys. So +250 is going to be my alternative in case Jasper Phillipson doesn't win.”
(07:35)

Spencer adds a wild card option with Benim Garmai, offering higher odds and potential for surprise:

“I'm going plus 1600 at FanDuel for Benim Garmai. It's my wild card.”
(08:28)

Johan defends Garmai’s chances despite previous setbacks:

“He did have a mechanical with about 20k to go or something. So there's no, he didn't even have a chance, you know, without the two little climbs.”
(09:23)

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Head to Heads Analysis

The hosts engage in a "Head to Head" segment, analyzing specific matchups and their betting implications.

1. Jasper Fieldsman (-350) vs. Benim Garmai (+240)

   • Johan confidently supports Fieldsman:

     “I think Phillipson and the beauty, the...”
     (10:43)

2. T. Pa (-192) vs. Jonas Finagard (+140)

   • Johan favors Jonas Finagard, anticipating a strategic ride:

     “Once he's gonna see that he can pass him, he's going to pass him.”
     (11:35)

3. Matthew Vanderpoel (-116) vs. Stein Friedheim (-116)

   • Spencer leans towards Vanderpoel based on stage dynamics:

     “Matthew, I think so too. I think tomorrow it's going to be in.”
     (14:06)

4. Tim Merlier (-126) vs. Jonathan Milan (-108)

   • Johan opts for Jonathan Milan, citing his determination:

     “Milan is... he will want to be as close as possible.”
     (15:11)

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Strategic Insights

The conversation highlights the complexity of predicting sprint stages, especially with factors like wind and team dynamics. Johan introduces the Kilometer Rule, explaining its impact on race outcomes:

“Kilometer rule meaning that whatever happens in the last five kilometers, not getting dropped.”
(12:58)

This rule ensures that riders finishing within five kilometers of the stage winner are grouped together, emphasizing the importance of strategic positioning in the final kilometers.

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Conclusion

Both Spencer Martin and Johan Berniel express optimism for a thrilling and straightforward sprint finish in Stage 3. Their expert analysis, combined with strategic betting insights, equips listeners with a comprehensive understanding of what to expect in this pivotal stage of the Tour de France.

Spencer closes with enthusiasm:

“Just a nice sleepy sprint stage. Be fun. I can't wait.”
(15:45)

Listeners are encouraged to stay tuned for the next episode, which will preview Stage 4 and 14, continuing the in-depth coverage of the Tour de France.

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Notable Quotes:

• Spencer Martin (00:28):

  “178km into Dunkirk from a city that's more inland... Simple, straightforward stage, at least on paper.”

• Johan Berniel (02:14):

  “The team is on an incredible high two out of two... Jasper Fieldsman winning again.”

• Spencer Martin (04:36):

  “I think [Tim Merlier] is so incredibly fast. This stage is probably the one that would help him.”

• Johan Berniel (12:58):

  “Kilometer rule meaning that whatever happens in the last five kilometers, not getting dropped.”

• Spencer Martin (15:45):

  “Just a nice sleepy sprint stage. Be fun. I can't wait.”

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This episode of THEMOVE offers a wealth of information for cycling enthusiasts and bettors alike, providing a nuanced look into the strategies and predictions that could shape the outcome of Tour de France Stage 3.

Transcript

[Johan Berniel]

The team is on an incredible high two out of two. So I think tomorrow we're going to see a three out of three for Alpecinde Koenig, with Jasper Fieldsman winning again.

[Spencer Martin]

Hi, I'm Spencer Martin along with Johan Berniel and this is Outcomes.

[Narrator]

Outcomes is for informational entertainment purposes only. Nothing in this podcast should be considered financial advice. Please gamble responsibly and if you or someone you know has a gambling problem, seek help from a professional resource. Host and guests may have financial interest in the bets discussed. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

[Spencer Martin]

Everybody. Welcome back to Outcomes. I'm Spencer Martin. I'm here with Johan. We are predicting stage three of the Tour de France. 178km into Dunkirk from a city that's more inland. I'll let Johan say the pronunciation later in the stage. Simple, straightforward stage, at least on paper. Flat winds its way up to the coast. There's one Categorized Climb about 30 kilometers from the finish, the Mont Castle, which they've already done from a different side on stage one, where the spectacular Kom crash happened. But I'll list off the odds and we'll get Johan's take on who's going to win quickly. Before we get into that though, remember NextBets is our odds making and I guess, referral sponsor. So if you're wondering how do I bet? I'd love to bet. This sounds so interesting, but I don't know where I can bet where I live. Well, go to nxtbets.com betcomes link is in the show notes. It will show exactly where you can bet, what books you can use, where you live and it redirects you to the best, most lucrative signup bonuses if you do not already have an account. So remember to check that out in the show notes next. Nxtbets.com betoutcomes But Johan, the favorite for the stage, Tim Merlier plus 185. Jonathan Milan plus 225. Yes sir. Jasper Phillipson plus 335. V. G plus 1600. Jordy Mayos plus 1800. Soren Walken plus 3200. Wen Scold doesn't win if he gets on a streak, we're in trouble. Dylan Grona, vegan plus 3400. Matthew Vanderpoel plus 4600. Danny Van Poppel plus 4600. It goes on and on, but we will call them out when we need to. But Johan, who do you think is going to win this stage and how do you think it's Going to play out. Yeah.

[Johan Berniel]

Well, so it starts from Valenciennes to Dunkirk so I think it's the typical sprint stage. Spencer. Nothing compared to yesterday's stage. That was a sprint but not a real bun sprint. I think this is different windy but apparently the wind is not going to be too big of a factor in the final since it's mostly coming from the front. I'm gonna go for Jasper Philipson especially at 3:35. I think it's interesting he comes in with great confidence. The team is on a incredible high two out of two. So I think tomorrow we're going to see a three out of three for Alpus in the Koenink with Jasper Fieldsman winning again. He has the best lead out train. They're super confident and they're going to want to win. They're going to want to take opportunity of the big high they're on right now.

[Spencer Martin]

Yeah, it's hard to disagree with that. I'm actually surprised he's low as he is. This is the continuation of the theme where he's always kind of underestimated in these big bunch sprints. Seems to do well. He's plus 320. The odds are moving at Caesars. Plus 310 at Fanduel. The thing about Philipson is I believe Johan, every sprint in every Grand Tour stage so far has been won by the rider that launched first off a lead out that was in front. Well, who, who would be capable of being on the front to launch first? It would be Phillipson because his Alpus and Deconic team is so strong. So that would be the case for him. However, I'm looking at Tim earlier. 185. We're still early in the Grand Tour. The guy's like probably the best early Grand Tour sprinter even though he missed out on stage one. Didn't get a chance I think. I think actually he's been forgotten about even though he's the favorite. But I'm gonna go with him. Plus 185@ FanDuel just because I think he's so incredibly fast. This stage is probably the one that would help him or give him like the biggest advantage that we'll have at this race because it is so flat relative to the rest of the sprint stages. The headwind, I don't know, does that help him, hurt him? That means you have to launch later, right?

[Johan Berniel]

I think it helps him because you know, as we all know, Timber Lear on Sudok Quickstep doesn't have a full sprint train because they Basically, they took him on, but. But, you know, with the. Only. With the. With the condition that he could only bring one guy. He has his, his usual guy with him. But it's a team built for Remco, so I think that's a disadvantage. But Merlier is a master in surfing other trains. You know, if you don't have your own train and it's headwind, it's, It's. It could be a bit more complicated because the speed is not as high, because if Merlier locks himself onto the train of Alpecin and it's tailwind or not headwind, at least the speed is higher and they can't come from all different sides. If it's a bit more headwind, I mean, it's to be seen what the wind is like once you get into Dunkirk. Right. In the city, it's completely different than when you're in the open field. So if it's in the city, it's pretty straight. I saw. Not very technical the last one and a half kilometers. So, yeah, I mean, if, if it's protected from the buildings, it's different. Right. Then you cannot even. It's possible you cannot even feel the headwind. But. But, yeah, I agree. I mean, he's super fast. He would deserve to win a stage. He's been the fastest sprinter by far, if you look at that, this year's season, you know, European champion. He has a point to prove. I think in his mind, probably say, okay, I was the big favorite on stage one. I didn't win. Now I need to. I could see him come over the finish tomorrow and then, you know, doing this.

[Spencer Martin]

And he just moved to 190 at Caesars. So I'm hitting that, the 190. I guess, in theory. I guess it would be easier to come around rider like Phillips and with a headwind because, yeah, if it's a tailwind or no wind, they're going so fast you can't get around them. Yeah, it's over before it's even started, essentially.

[Johan Berniel]

Yeah. But I repeat, you know, it's to be seen what the wind is like in that last kilometer, which is nothing compared to the wind direction in the, you know, in generally in the stage.

[Spencer Martin]

Yeah. So if it's not as we saw in stage one, things go sideways.

[Johan Berniel]

Dunkirk is a big city, so there's a lot of buildings, so the wind can actually not be. It's possible it's not a factor, or.

[Spencer Martin]

It'S a huge factor because it's. It's being shuttled down the down the, down the buildings. Like when I was in the city of London just last week and I felt like I was, everything I had was going to blow away, even though it wasn't that busy. But stuff goes sideways, Johan, we don't know exactly what's going to happen. Let's say Phillipson doesn't win. Who would be your wild card to win?

[Johan Berniel]

Yeah, I think my alternative is going to be Jonathan Milan. You know, he hasn't been showing. I mean, yesterday he was got out also today he crashed. Something tells me that he must be in really, really good shape because Little Track were actually working for him today, which was a surprise, you know, because they were confident that he would make it in the, in the final group and sprint for the victory. That's what the dynamics within Little Track were telling me, that they were protecting him and they were trying to bring him to the front. So knowing that they must know that he has good legs and yeah, I mean, listen, Jonathan Milan, whenever there's a sprint, he, he needs to be, he needs to be one of the guys. So +250 is going to be my alternative in case Jasper Phillipson doesn't win.

[Spencer Martin]

Yeah, the rare inverted wild card. Better, better odds than the, your first pick. Yeah, yeah, Milan, I mean if he's going to win one, this is the one. So that, that would be the case for him. I do worry a little. Just feels like a lot is going wrong with him or he's letting it get into his head because we saw him explode at the intermediate sprint because Bidium Girmay had the gall, I guess, to try to hold his position on his teammate's wheel. Milan didn't like that. But on that note, Girmaj looked good in that intermediate sprint. I thought he's looked good all race. Like the guy is like Phillipson, you know, he doesn't. He kind of under the radar right before the tour and then seems to rise to the occasion. I'm going to go Grimai as a wild card plus 1600 for the former green jersey winner, potential green jersey winner this year. That's a very good price for a rider of that quality. So I'm going plus 1600 at FanDuel for Benim Garmai. It's my wild card.

[Johan Berniel]

That's a good wild card. Really good. I mean today also they were, I mean, I don't think he could have made it, but he didn't have a chance because he had a mechanical with about 20k to go or something. So there's no, he didn't even have a chance, you know, without the two little climbs. I mean the finish was probably within his possibilities. It's, you know, three and a half, 4%. But, but yeah, with the two, with two steep climbs, I don't think he had any chance. But he did in his favor. He did. In his defense, he did have a mechanical.

[Spencer Martin]

Yeah, I mean that was also ridiculously hard. That final for a sprinter. That's.

[Johan Berniel]

It's not that, it's not Spencer, I don't think. It's not that it's hard, it's just that these guys are going crazy fast.

[Spencer Martin]

Well, ye, that's what I mean. Obviously it's not like, yeah, if you were walking up the climb it wouldn't be that hard. But if you have to go 800 watts for a minute to hold the wheel, yeah, that's going to be tough. That's going to make it hard. But let's take a quick, quick break, then we'll get to the Head to Heads. We'll do Johan's daily Head to Head rundown, which people love. All right, we'll be right back. So Johan, our Head to Heads today that I've selected from FanDuel in the US first one, Jasper Phillipson minus 350 versus the guy we were just talking about, Binyam Garmai, plus 240. Who do you think is going to win?

[Johan Berniel]

I think Phillipson and the beauty, the.

[Spencer Martin]

Beauty of the head is like, let's say Milan wins and then you've bet on Phillipson, you still win this bet even though he didn't win the stage. It's like a little bit of insurance. And then also it occurred to me, I should explain, someone reached out like what is plus 100? Plus 100 means you double your money. It's like a 50% implied probability. So if it's plus 100, basically a coin flip minus 350 means you would have to bet $350 to make 100. But yeah, Philipson is a very good sprinter, so that wouldn't seem, seem crazy that he wouldn't win that stage or win against gai. The next one. T pa minus 192 versus Jonas Finagard plus 140. The this is one's interesting because these guys will not be contesting the stage. You just have to guess who's going to finish in front of the other in the peloton.

[Johan Berniel]

I'm going to go for Jonas. I think today is riding conservatively in the, in in the first stages. Once he's gonna see Once he's gonna see that everything's fine, that it's a bunch print, that it's all packed up, he's not gonna fight for any, any positions anymore. Jonas on the contrary looks very eager, very, a little bit nervous, maybe a bit more nervous. So he's gonna, once he's gonna be around today, I mean that's going to be the whole, the whole three weeks. It's like Jonas around today but when he's, when he sees that he can pass him, he's going to pass him.

[Spencer Martin]

So yeah, I agree. I mean also on these, if you think they're going to be roughly the same and then one is positive like plus 140, you should go with him. Visma seems very dialed in. That would be my takeaway from the first two stages.

[Johan Berniel]

Another thing Spencer word noting for, for especially also for these head to heads and you know like tomorrow's a flat stage and I've read somewhere that there's, I think there's five stages in this tour that they don't apply the three kilometer rule. With the five kilometer rule those are. There's five stages, it's the five kilometer rule, then there's one stage, it's a four kilometer rule and then there's two others or then all the others are the three kilometer rule except the uphill finishes.

[Spencer Martin]

Interesting. So five kilometer rule tomorrow, tomorrow's five.

[Johan Berniel]

Kilometer rule meaning that whatever happens in the last five kilometers, not getting dropped. But if you have a flat or there's a crash and you're behind the crash, you get the same time as the, as the group you were in. So it's going to be a big, big weak fight to keep all the GC teams to put, to put their guy within five kilometers and then basically it's okay. Then their job is done.

[Spencer Martin]

Basically gonna be thrilling to watch two guys in 100th position, you know that'll make you feel alive, put some money on them and see who rolls over the line slowly in front of the other one. This, this one's super interesting. Matthew Vanderpoel versus Stein Friedheim on Uno X and it's 116 minus 116 versus minus 116. So even odds. I guess the thought is they're both lead out writers. Yeah, I'm gonna guess so. Yeah, it's who sits up harder basically is the question here. And you know where they finished on stage one. You want to guess? 28th and 29th. Vanderpoel was ahead of them.

[Johan Berniel]

Yeah.

[Spencer Martin]

Matthew, I think so too. I think tomorrow it's going to be in.

[Johan Berniel]

And I'm just thinking about this, Spencer. Tomorrow is going to be interesting to see the yellow jersey leading out. The sprint.

[Spencer Martin]

Of a guy that he took the yellow jersey from on his own team. It's. Yeah, wild stuff.

[Johan Berniel]

Yeah.

[Spencer Martin]

So the Last1, timberlier minus 126 versus Jonathan Milan minus 108.

[Johan Berniel]

So they're both negatives.

[Spencer Martin]

Yeah, they're both negative. The book is taking a nice little cut here.

[Johan Berniel]

Yeah, I'm gonna go with Milan. You know why? Because, and. And I'm just thinking, you know, it's gonna be hectic. It's gonna be all, you know, mixed together. Merlier, when. When Merlier sees that he doesn't have a chance, he's not going for the green jersey. Yeah.

[Spencer Martin]

Yeah.

[Johan Berniel]

And Milan is. So Milan will. Even if he can't win, he will want to be as close as possible, whereas Malir is winning or nothing.

[Spencer Martin]

So it's a very good point and it actually shows why this is maybe one of the best bets we've talked about, because Milan is the underdog and has more incentive to finish in front of Tim. Earlier, we saw the guy pop a top like sprinting for fifth on an intermediate sprint today. So that shows you he cares deeply about these points.

[Johan Berniel]

Yeah, he does.

[Spencer Martin]

Well, anything else, Johan, before we take off?

[Johan Berniel]

No, that's it. Let's hope we have a real straightforward sprint stage tomorrow. I think. I think we need that.

[Spencer Martin]

Yeah, just a nice sleepy sprint stage.

[Johan Berniel]

Where all the sprinters are, you know, up there and they can sprint amongst each other.

[Spencer Martin]

Be fun. I can't wait.

[Johan Berniel]

Okay, thanks, Spencer.

[Spencer Martin]

Well, yep, we'll be back tomorrow to preview stage 4 14.