THEMOVE Podcast: Tour de France Stage 3 Preview | Outcomes
Release Date: July 6, 2025

Introduction

In the Tour de France Stage 3 Preview episode of THEMOVE, hosts Spencer Martin and Johan Berniel delve deep into the upcoming 178-kilometer stage from Valenciennes to Dunkirk. This episode provides listeners with expert analysis, betting odds, and strategic predictions for one of cycling's most anticipated stages.

Stage Overview

The hosts begin by outlining the route and key features of Stage 3.

Spencer Martin introduces the stage as:

“178km into Dunkirk from a city that's more inland. I'll let Johan say the pronunciation later in the stage. Simple, straightforward stage, at least on paper. Flat winds its way up to the coast.”
(00:28)

Despite appearing straightforward, the stage includes a Categorized Climb about 30 kilometers from the finish—the Mont Castle—which was previously featured in Stage 1, infamous for the spectacular KOM crash.

Betting Odds and Favorites

The discussion transitions into betting odds, with Spencer outlining the initial favorites:

• Tim Merlier: +185
• Jonathan Milan: +225
• Jasper Fieldsman: +335
• V. G: +1600
• Jordy Mayos: +1800
• Soren Walken: +3200
• Benim Garmai: +3400
• Matthew Vanderpoel & Danny Van Poppel: +4600 each

Spencer Martin emphasizes Jaspers Fieldsman's strong position:

“The team is on an incredible high two out of two. So I think tomorrow we're going to see a three out of three for Alpecin-Cojant, with Jasper Fieldsman winning again.”
(02:14)

Primary Prediction: Jasper Fieldsman vs. Tim Merlier

Johan Berniel supports Fieldsman's chances, citing his team’s momentum and solid lead-out train:

“The team is on an incredible high two out of two... Jasper Fieldsman winning again. He has the best lead out train. They're super confident and they're going to want to win.”
(02:14)

Spencer counters by favoring Tim Merlier, highlighting his speed and previous performances:

“I'm gonna go with him [Tim Merlier]. ...I think he's so incredibly fast. This stage is probably the one that would help him or give him like the biggest advantage that we'll have at this race because it is so flat relative to the rest of the sprint stages.”
(04:36)

Johan agrees, noting Merlier's expertise in handling varying train conditions:

“Merlier is a master in surfing other trains... if Merlier locks himself onto the train of Alpecin and it's tailwind or not headwind, at least the speed is higher and they can't come from all different sides.”
(06:32)

Ultimately, Spencer decides to back Tim Merlier at +190, believing his speed gives him the edge in this flat stage.

Alternative Picks: Jonathan Milan and Binyam Garmai

In case of an upset, Johan proposes Jonathan Milan as a strong alternative:

“Jonathan Milan, whenever there's a sprint, he, he needs to be, he needs to be one of the guys. So +250 is going to be my alternative in case Jasper Phillipson doesn't win.”
(07:35)

Spencer adds a wild card option with Benim Garmai, offering higher odds and potential for surprise:

“I'm going plus 1600 at FanDuel for Benim Garmai. It's my wild card.”
(08:28)

Johan defends Garmai’s chances despite previous setbacks:

“He did have a mechanical with about 20k to go or something. So there's no, he didn't even have a chance, you know, without the two little climbs.”
(09:23)

Head to Heads Analysis

The hosts engage in a "Head to Head" segment, analyzing specific matchups and their betting implications.

1. Jasper Fieldsman (-350) vs. Benim Garmai (+240)

   • Johan confidently supports Fieldsman:

     “I think Phillipson and the beauty, the...”
     (10:43)

2. T. Pa (-192) vs. Jonas Finagard (+140)

   • Johan favors Jonas Finagard, anticipating a strategic ride:

     “Once he's gonna see that he can pass him, he's going to pass him.”
     (11:35)

3. Matthew Vanderpoel (-116) vs. Stein Friedheim (-116)

   • Spencer leans towards Vanderpoel based on stage dynamics:

     “Matthew, I think so too. I think tomorrow it's going to be in.”
     (14:06)

4. Tim Merlier (-126) vs. Jonathan Milan (-108)

   • Johan opts for Jonathan Milan, citing his determination:

     “Milan is... he will want to be as close as possible.”
     (15:11)

Strategic Insights

The conversation highlights the complexity of predicting sprint stages, especially with factors like wind and team dynamics. Johan introduces the Kilometer Rule, explaining its impact on race outcomes:

“Kilometer rule meaning that whatever happens in the last five kilometers, not getting dropped.”
(12:58)

This rule ensures that riders finishing within five kilometers of the stage winner are grouped together, emphasizing the importance of strategic positioning in the final kilometers.

Conclusion

Both Spencer Martin and Johan Berniel express optimism for a thrilling and straightforward sprint finish in Stage 3. Their expert analysis, combined with strategic betting insights, equips listeners with a comprehensive understanding of what to expect in this pivotal stage of the Tour de France.

Spencer closes with enthusiasm:

“Just a nice sleepy sprint stage. Be fun. I can't wait.”
(15:45)

Listeners are encouraged to stay tuned for the next episode, which will preview Stage 4 and 14, continuing the in-depth coverage of the Tour de France.

Notable Quotes:

• Spencer Martin (00:28):

  “178km into Dunkirk from a city that's more inland... Simple, straightforward stage, at least on paper.”

• Johan Berniel (02:14):

  “The team is on an incredible high two out of two... Jasper Fieldsman winning again.”

• Spencer Martin (04:36):

  “I think [Tim Merlier] is so incredibly fast. This stage is probably the one that would help him.”

• Johan Berniel (12:58):

  “Kilometer rule meaning that whatever happens in the last five kilometers, not getting dropped.”

• Spencer Martin (15:45):

  “Just a nice sleepy sprint stage. Be fun. I can't wait.”

This episode of THEMOVE offers a wealth of information for cycling enthusiasts and bettors alike, providing a nuanced look into the strategies and predictions that could shape the outcome of Tour de France Stage 3.