Tour de France Stage 4 Preview | OŪTCOMES

Summary

THEMOVE Podcast Episode Summary
Title: Tour de France Stage 4 Preview | OŪTCOMES
Host: Lance Armstrong
Release Date: July 7, 2025

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Introduction

In the latest episode of THEMOVE, host Lance Armstrong delves into an in-depth preview of Stage 4 of the Tour de France, bringing listeners an expert analysis enriched with insider perspectives. Joined by guest Johan Berniel, the discussion navigates through historical anecdotes, current race dynamics, betting odds, and strategic predictions for the upcoming stage.

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A Personal Touch: Johan’s Tour de France Memory [00:00 – 02:18]

Johan Berniel opens the conversation by reminiscing about his first Tour de France stage win 32 years ago in Amiens. He shares:

“That was worth mentioning. Great memories from that day.”
— Johan Berniel [00:00]

He highlights the significance of his solo victory on what was then the fastest stage in Tour de France history, averaging 49.5 kilometers per hour. Johan reflects on the evolution of cycling dynamics, noting changes in bike technology and race conditions over the decades.

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Stage 4 Overview and Route Analysis [02:20 – 07:24]

Spencer Martin introduces the complexities of Stage 4, describing it as a “tricky stage, lumpy, especially towards the end” with multiple categorized climbs. The route's challenging profile includes:

• Four Climbs Near the Finish: Two third-category climbs and a final steep ascent of 800 meters at 11–15% grade.
• Narrow Roads: Emphasizing the strategic importance of positioning before tackling the climbs.

Johan draws parallels to the previous day’s stage, envisioning a similar scenario where the peloton’s high speed negates the chances of a successful breakaway.

“I expect the same kind of scenario. Really, really nervous run into that first climb.”
— Johan Berniel [04:01]

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Predictions and Betting Odds [07:24 – 11:32]

The conversation shifts to betting odds for Stage 4 winners. Johan initially supports Matthieu van der Poel as the favorite at +125, citing his current form and strategic positioning after Philipson's crash:

“I’m gonna go for Matthew van der Poel. 125 plus 1. 125.”
— Johan Berniel [05:04]

Spencer, however, presents an alternative pick:

“I'm going to go with Tadpogachar. He’s +335.”
— Spencer Martin [06:33]

He argues that Tadpogachar offers a better value bet while still possessing the potential to match van der Poel's strengths on the final climbs.

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Wildcard Picks and Race Dynamics [11:32 – 16:04]

Discussing potential wildcard entrants, Johan selects Kevin Vlan at +1600, appreciating his aggressive racing style and recent performances:

“He will be right behind. There’s a little plateau there. Three, five, six guys will come back, and Vocalaj can be the surprise.”
— Johan Berniel [07:49]

Spencer counters with Roman Gregoire at +1500, highlighting Gregoire’s strong form and tactical acumen:

“Roman Gregoire wins. Or Kevin Vauclan. Like, this is ripe for this type of late raid from a writer like this.”
— Spencer Martin [08:56]

The duo explores how narrow roads and steep climbs foster tactical maneuvers, increasing the likelihood of unexpected riders capitalizing on race dynamics.

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Points Classification and Future Predictions [14:01 – 16:04]

Transitioning to the Points Classification, Spencer evaluates the impact of recent crashes and stage outcomes on the standings. Johan adjusts his strategy, now favoring van der Poel to vie for the green jersey:

“Now that Philipson is out, he’s going to go for green man.”
— Johan Berniel [15:08]

Both hosts acknowledge the fluidity of race dynamics, emphasizing the importance of adaptability and keen observation of rider conditions leading into each stage.

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Conclusion and Final Thoughts [16:04 – End]

As the episode wraps up, Johan and Spencer reiterate their confidence in their respective picks, underscoring the unpredictable nature of Stage 4. Johan maintains his support for van der Poel, while Spencer remains optimistic about Tadpogachar and Gregoire’s chances.

“All right. And that's only going to drop if he wins tomorrow.”
— Spencer Martin [15:55]

They conclude with anticipation for Stage 5’s time trial, promising listeners continued expert analysis in upcoming episodes.

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Key Takeaways

• Matthieu van der Poel remains the favorite for Stage 4, bolstered by his current form and strategic advantages.
• Tadpogachar and Roman Gregoire emerge as strong alternative picks, offering valuable betting opportunities.
• Kevin Vlan serves as a wildcard candidate, capable of surprising performances in dynamic race conditions.
• The race’s technical route and narrow roads necessitate strategic positioning and adaptability from contenders.
• Points classification outcomes are closely tied to stage performances and unforeseen events like crashes.

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Stay tuned to THEMOVE for comprehensive coverage and insider insights as the Tour de France progresses. Whether you’re a seasoned fan or a casual spectator, Lance Armstrong ensures you’re brought straight into the heart of the action.

Transcript

[Johan Berniel]

Good memory for me. To Morrow stage starts in Amiens. That's where I won my first Tour de France stage 32 years ago. Holy shit. So yeah, it was a stage coming into Amiens, north of France. And yeah, I won solo and it was back then it was the fastest stage in Tour de France history. 49.5 kilometers per hour. It's been beaten by now multiple times. But anyways, I thought that was worth mentioning.

[Spencer Martin]

Hi, I'm Spencer Martin along with Johan Berniel and this is Outcomes.

[Podcast Disclaimer]

Outcomes is for informational entertainment purposes only. Nothing in this podcast should be considered financial advice. Please gamble responsibly and if you or someone you know has a gambling problem, seek help from a professional resource. Hosts and guests may have financial interests in the bets discussed. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

[Spencer Martin]

Everybody. Welcome back to Outcomes. I'm Spencer Martin. I'm here with Johan Berniel. We are predicting stage four of the Tour de France 174. Really tricky stage, lumpy, especially towards the end. Multiple categorized climbs. Going to be tough to predict. But we have Johan here with us who will guide us through all. List off the odds and then we'll get Johan's take on who's going to win and how it's going to play out. Matthew Vanderpoel's the favorite. Plus 125. Tada Pagatra at plus 333. Jonas Vinegar plus 1300. Roman Gregoire at plus 1500. Kevin Vlan at plus 1500 W V 2800. Julian Alaphilip plus plus 3600 Binyam Gai plus 4000. It goes on and on, but we will call them out when we need to. Johan, how do you think this is going to play out and who do you think is going to win?

[Johan Berniel]

Yeah, well, first of all, Spencer, before we start getting into the odds, I just want to. A little. A little good memory for me. Tomorrow stage starts in Amiens. That's where I won my first Tour de France stage 32 years ago. Holy shit. So yeah, it was a stage coming into Amiens, north of France. And yeah, I won solo and it was that back then. It was the fastest stage in Tour de France history. 49.5 kilometers per hour. It's been beaten by, by by now multiple times. But anyways, I thought that was worth mentioning. Great memories from that. From that day.

[Spencer Martin]

That's pretty fast, Johan.

[Johan Berniel]

Well, on those bikes, you know, back then with, you know. Yeah, with the baggy clothes, dynamics were not the same. Yeah, it was fine. I mean it was. The wind was Favorable the whole day. Not very strong, but it was favorable. Wind and it was lumpy. It was not so flat. But yeah, the first ever Tour de France stage. A cyclist wins. It was something. A dream. That was something nice. I had been close a few times, like twice or three times second. It's like I need to win a stage in the Tour to be, you know, like, I knew I was never going to win the Tour, so winning a stage was the maximum I could attain. And that was really, really nice. So north of France tomorrow. Amia, this stage, Spencer, I think it's. It's extremely similar to yesterday's stage, to the stage that Matthew van der Poel won. Same kind of finale, you know, three climbs at the end. The last. The last climb is extremely steep. It's only 800 meters, but very steep. 11% with some. With some parts at 15%. So I expect the same scenario. I don't think it's going to be a breakaway. You know, the GC guys will want to be in front. It's going to be. Everybody will want to be in front. And so as we said already, you know, many times, even if there's a break, the speed of the peloton, the stress in the peloton goes up and up and up. The speed goes up. And without even chasing, the peloton has no chance that the breakaway has no chance. So, yeah, I expect the same kind of scenario. Really, really nervous run into that first climb. There's four climbs in the final.

[Spencer Martin]

Yeah, I think two climbs. Yeah, well, four really close to the finish. And then if you zoom out to like the last 30k, there's five.

[Johan Berniel]

Okay, okay. But, you know, two. Four categories, two third categories, and then the final, the final uphill. I mean, it's not a climb, but it's. It's, you know, 500 meters at 5%. Same thing as. I mean, I'm gonna pick the same guy. Matthieu van der Poel. I think he's on top of that. He's in yellow. He's now really the only protected guy. They don't have to think about Philipson. Unfortunately, Philipson crashed out today. Hurt himself pretty bad. I just spoke with one of the staff members there and has broken collarbone and several broken ribs. So that was a really hard crash. Really bad. It puts Vanderpool now in. In, you know, in an ideal position. And. And this fight, this final is. Is ideal for him. So I'm gonna go for Matthew van der Poel. 125 plus 1. 125.

[Spencer Martin]

Yeah. I hard to argue with that. And if you're unfamiliar with what the heck we're talking about, plus 125 means if you bet a hundred dollars on him, you will make $125 in profit. And so they'll, they'll give you 225 back. Yeah, Johan, it's, it's tough. I'm in a tough position. I even thought about just doubling up on your pick and just piggybacking on it. But stuff, stuff happens. Like we saw today. Jasper Phillipson, that looked like a slam dunk pick. He crashes mid stage, he's down. Things can happen. But I do think there's probably one rider. I rewatched Yesterday's finish like 15 times and it's clear there's one rider in this race who can even potentially match Vanderpool on a finish like this. It's Tadpogachar. And he's cheaper, He's a better price. He's +335. I'm going to go with him. I mean, just to give people perspective. So if you bet on him, you're going to make, you're going to make four. You're going to get 433 handed right back to you. I'm going to bet on Pagachar with the note that, yes, Matthew Vanderpoel probably will, will win. I do not think it's going to be breakaway. I think everyone's too keyed up. Like you said, everyone wants to be at the front. If you're a GC contender, you've got to be at the front. These are hard climbs like 1.3K at 9.2%, 1.8K at 4.8% and then a K at 9.1% right before the finish. Like these. As we saw today, what do we. What or yesterday we saw the GC contenders had to be like in the top seven or else they were going to get tailed off. In those groups going over the summit.

[Johan Berniel]

Take into account, Spencer, the narrow roads in that part of France.

[Spencer Martin]

Yes.

[Johan Berniel]

So it's, it's extremely important to be in front. So it's, it's super fast. I can perfectly see again like that. Six, seven, eight riders maximum being on that last climb. And then some riders will come back. But breakaway has, I mean a breakaway, an early breakaway. If somebody can break away from that select group. That's different in the final, right?

[Spencer Martin]

Yeah, I mean the finish technical, it looks like a kid, like a little child drew it, you know, just scribbly lines on the map. So. And, and what. What you said is if people think that they can break away late and win, they'll be less likely to go all in in the early breakaway, which makes it less likely an early breakaway wins. So. Yeah, I don't, I don't think it's early break.

[Johan Berniel]

No.

[Spencer Martin]

And, but as we saw, yes, two days ago yesterday, I. What day is it? I have no idea. Weird stuff can happen. Things can get tactical in the finish here. Kevin Von almost got away. He just had an anchor on his wheel in. In the form of Matteo Jorgensen. Jorgensen. Jorgensen. But if this could happen again. So there is a chance someone else wins. If it is, who is it?

[Johan Berniel]

Yeah, I, I picked Kevin Vocala as my wild card and I'm going to pick him again. 1600. So he came down. I mean, I think when I picked him was 8,000 two days ago. Now he's six. Because he did try. He did try three times to take a flyer. You know, it almost worked. He had Jurgensen on his wheel, but it's clear that he's in great shape. Right. And so if you look at the profile, gets over. They're getting over that last climb, that 800 meters at 11%. He's probably not going to be with the first three, four guys, but he will be right behind. There's a little plateau there. Three, five, six guys will come back and then that's where Vocalaj can, you know, be the surprise. And tomorrow's final stretch is probably easier to stay away than yesterday's. If you have 10 seconds, you can make it to the finish. So +1600 is going to be my wild card.

[Spencer Martin]

Yeah, I, I like that pick a lot, but there's a. There. I. I'm going to pick Kevin Vlan light because this man has been shadowing Kevin around lately. Like, Kevin Vlan finished third at the French National Championships. Well, who was second? Roman Gregoire, who finished right up there in the top with Kevin Vlan the other day. Roman Gregoire, he. I found him at + 1500 on FanDuel. So he's going to be my wild card. This is like, in my mind, it's not impossible to imagine. Like, things get tactical and then the French get their win. Roman Grigor Gregoire wins. Or Kevin Vauclan. Like, this is ripe for this type of late raid from a writer like this.

[Johan Berniel]

Yeah, for sure. Gregoire is in great form. You know, he won. He won stage one in the Tour of Switzerland, was for quite a long time in the lead also. And yeah, he was up there in the French championships. Very hard. Also an uphill. I mean a similar kind of finish. Yeah. And he was, he was trying also yesterday he had this whole team at his service and he was, Was he fifth or sixth or something in. I mean, he was definitely going for it.

[Spencer Martin]

I think it was. Yeah, he was. Might have been even higher than that. I think he was. Yeah. Fourth.

[Johan Berniel]

Fourth scene. Fourth. Okay.

[Spencer Martin]

Yeah.

[Johan Berniel]

But so I, I personally think that Gregoire and Vocalin have a better chance trying to anticipate and the, the sprint and, and a bit of surprise attack after that last climb. That's how I see them winning. Yeah.

[Spencer Martin]

Vanderpoel, I mean we saw he did win. It was impressive on stage two, but he was like leading himself out basically. Like that's not unbeatable because he has to.

[Johan Berniel]

Well, it's control attacks, especially Spencer, because tomorrow is different. It's it. The last 300 meters are flat in. Where was it in. I forgot the name now where vanderpool1 it. It kept going up until the finish. Right. So once you were going, the speed was slower, drafting was, was less of an issue. But if it's 300 meters flat and you go too early after that last 500 meters at 5%, then you could potentially be beaten. And I think that's how Vanderpool might get beaten because everybody's going to be looking at him, he's going to be alone. There's not going to be anybody with him from his teammates. So. So yeah, I mean, and he will have to take the responsibility again because he's the big favorite and on top of that, he's in yellow.

[Spencer Martin]

Well, you heard it. Let's hope no one listens to this because then they'll know how to beat Vanderpoel and you won't win your pick. So don't release this show, but let's take a quick ad break and then I want to get your. Your take on a head to head and then also quick drop in on the green jersey classification, everybody. This episode is brought to you by Cook Unity. CookUnity has all star chefs craft meals each week with local in season ingredients that are high in protein, fiber and unsaturated fats. All you have to do is go on the website, you pick out the meals you want delivered and boom, every week delivered right to your door. You have exactly what you want. They're sent fresh, not frozen, and delivered directly to you. You can have the chicken and dumplings, the sun dried tomatoes. Personally, I'm loving the mission burritos. And Mom's Sunday sauce rigatoni. I'm up in Aspen for the move in July and outside of my family and children, the thing I'm missing the most are my Cook Unity meals. I don't know if I will make it for this month without my Cook Unity. Their all star chefs include Food Network alums, James Beard award winners and acclaimed restaurateurs. Balancing flavor and nutrition and small batch meals sent fresh, not frozen. Crush your health goals with mouth watering chef crafted meals delivered right to you. Go to cookunity.com themove and enter code or enter code themove before checking out for 50% off your first week. That's 50% off your first week by using code themove or going to cookunity.com themove check it out now. I cannot recommend it enough. It has changed the way I eat and I want everyone to have access to the same thing. All right, back to the episode. All right, Johan. Well, we're back. Today I just, I pulled one head to head that I thought was interesting. I don't think you're gonna like it, but it's mate, you also good job on your vinegard over pugacher for today's stage. That was pretty impressive. But this is mate. This is on Fanduel. By the way, Mateusz Gomo is a minus 140 versus Guillaume Martin plus 106. I know this is really tough.

[Johan Berniel]

I'm gonna say Skill Moser because he's better at positioning than, than good Martin.

[Spencer Martin]

Well, you want to hear an odd thing on stage two. Marton 16, 16th and then Scumo's at 23rd.

[Johan Berniel]

Okay, but were they in the first group?

[Spencer Martin]

They were both in the first group.

[Johan Berniel]

Okay. Okay. I still think Scalmos.

[Spencer Martin]

Okay, that would make the most logical sense. And then I just kind of want to check in with you on the points classification. I think the king of the mountains like pagachar is plus 115. In my mind it's like, well, we don't really like. It really is who goes over lows first, like who gets to the top of that. Basically the Courchevel summit finish. But what if a breakaway stays away because the GC's already decided that then that person, if they've been working at it, is probably going to win the KOM jersey. So I, I think it's too risky at this point to even speculate on that. But points classification with the Asper Phillips and out probably would have won with the form he had. Milan's dropped to minus 155. And then it's Matthew Vanderpoel plus 350. Binyom G plus 440. T Pagacher, your pick at plus 600. How do you feel about Milan was my pick. I got him at like, plus 255. And he's clearly now the favorite to win, at least for the embedding markets.

[Johan Berniel]

Yeah, I'm going to go. I'm going to put. I mean, now that you say that, I'm going to put some money on Mat V. Now that Philipson is out, he's going to go for green man. He. He said he wasn't. I think he's going to change his mind.

[Spencer Martin]

Yeah, yeah, that. That's actually pretty interesting. I. What's funny is George. George had a comment in the show today where he was like, alison doesn't want to burn their matches. But it's like, well, what. What else are they here to do?

[Johan Berniel]

Yeah. Other than the first nine days, it's. They have to give everything they can.

[Spencer Martin]

Yeah. And then if Vanderpoel's in a good position, I mean, clearly he has the ability to stay. He can get into breakaways in the mountains and that. That's a good pick. Vanderpol S350.

[Johan Berniel]

Yeah.

[Spencer Martin]

All right. And that's only going to drop if he wins tomorrow. So get in now on that if you. If you like Vanderpoel to win. Do you have anything else, Johan, before we go?

[Johan Berniel]

No, that's it.

[Spencer Martin]

All right, thank you. And we will talk tomorrow to. To pick the. The time trial on stage five.