Tour de France Stage 6 Preview | OŪTCOMES

Summary

THEMOVE Podcast Episode Summary

Title: Tour de France Stage 6 Preview | OUTCOMES
Release Date: July 9, 2025
Host: Lance Armstrong
Guests: Spencer Martin, Johan Berniel
Duration: 16 minutes and 31 seconds

Introduction

In this episode of THEMOVE, host Lance Armstrong delves into an insightful preview of Stage 6 of the Tour de France. Joined by experts Spencer Martin and Johan Berniel from the Outcomes podcast, the discussion revolves around race predictions, betting odds, and potential outcomes for the challenging 201-kilometer stage.

Stage Overview

Spencer Martin introduces the complexity of Stage 6, highlighting its demanding profile:

"[...] a 201 kilometer stage. Very difficult, by the way, about 11,000ft of climbing I overheard on the move this morning." [00:27]

He emphasizes the grueling nature of the stage, which includes significant elevation changes and a steep finish, setting the stage for a competitive race.

Favorite Predictions

Johan Berniel analyzes the course and shares his prediction for the stage winner:

"I'm going to pick him at +2.50." [02:05]

The favorite for this stage is Tad Pagatra, whom Berniel believes has the capability to dominate given the terrain's challenges. Spencer Martin concurs, reinforcing Pagatra's strong position in the race:

"I'm going deep, deep into left field here. I found Quinn Simmons at +5000." [08:17]

Breakaway Possibilities

The hosts discuss the potential for a breakaway group to make a significant impact:

"There's a possibility. [...] But you normally [...] positioning is constantly important." [02:05]

Despite the breakaway's potential, both Martin and Berniel express skepticism about its likelihood to succeed due to the peloton's high cruising speed and strategic team maneuvers aimed at controlling the race's pace.

Wild Card Entrants

Exploring alternatives, Berniel identifies Matthew van der Poel as a strong wildcard candidate:

"That's Matthew van der Poel plus." [06:57]

Martin supports this choice, highlighting van der Poel's versatility and past performances:

"But he can also be in the breakaway and win from the break." [07:30]

They also entertain the possibility of Quinn Simmons as a long-shot winner, citing his recent stage win and potential under certain race conditions:

"Quinn Simmons, plus 5,000. [...] if something strange happens in the finale or a breakaway, Quinn Simmons could win." [08:17]

Betting Strategies

A significant portion of the discussion centers around betting odds and strategies. Martin provides insights into where to place bets, balancing favorites with potential wild cards:

"But there's a confluence of factors. [...] It's just going to be." [04:08]

He advises listeners to "bet responsibly" and suggests diversifying bets to maximize potential returns without overextending financially.

Head-to-Head Predictions

The episode features a segment where Martin and Berniel engage in head-to-head predictions for specific riders:

"Today's stage, I think you got all but one right yesterday. [...] So that's probably a pretty good investment for a small amount of money." [07:44]

They analyze matchups between riders like Roman Gregoire and Kevin Vuklon, providing nuanced opinions on who might outperform whom based on current form and race dynamics.

Concerns and Team Dynamics

Berniel raises concerns about rider attitudes and team strategies, particularly focusing on Primus Ravich:

"My issue with Primos in this tour is his attitude and his, you know, like, relaxed attitude." [15:21]

He critiques Ravich's demeanor, suggesting it could impact team morale and individual performance, while Martin counters with optimism about Ravich's potential comeback.

Final Thoughts

As the episode concludes, both hosts reiterate the unpredictability of the Tour de France and the myriad factors that can influence Stage 6's outcome:

"Yeah, it's not a sure thing obviously like bet responsibly but you rarely are living in an era with a writer like this." [06:32]

They emphasize the importance of staying informed and adaptable, acknowledging that the Tour's dynamic nature can lead to unexpected developments.

Notable Quotes

• Johan Berniel:
  "I'm going to pick him at +2.50." [02:05]

• Spencer Martin:
  "But there's a confluence of factors. [...] It's just going to be." [04:08]

• Johan Berniel:
  "That's Matthew van der Poel plus." [06:57]

• Spencer Martin:
  "Quinn Simmons, plus 5,000. [...] Quinn Simmons could win." [08:17]

• Johan Berniel:
  "My issue with Primos in this tour is his attitude and his, you know, like, relaxed attitude." [15:21]

Conclusion

In this comprehensive preview of Tour de France Stage 6, THEMOVE offers listeners a deep dive into race strategies, potential outcomes, and betting insights. With expert analysis from Spencer Martin and Johan Berniel, the episode equips both casual fans and seasoned bettors with the knowledge to anticipate the challenges and excitement of this pivotal stage.

Transcript

[Johan Berniel]

My issue with Primos in this tour is his attitude and his, you know, like, relaxed attitude. Like, yeah, you know, we'll see. I don't care, he said several times. I don't care which if his team boss or the sponsor, I will be furious.

[Spencer Martin]

Well, also think about his teammates. They've just spent, like, weeks at Altitude camp away from their families. Yeah, that would be dispiriting. Hi, I'm Spencer Martin along with Johan.

[Johan Berniel]

Berniel, and this is Outcomes.

[Spencer Martin]

Outcomes is for informational entertainment purposes only. Nothing in this podcast should be considered financial advice. Gamble responsibly and if you or someone you know has a gambling problem, seek help from a professional resource. Host and guests may have financial interests in the bets discussed. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Everybody. Welcome back to Outcomes. I'm Spencer Martin. I'm here with Johan Berniel. We are predicting stage six of the Tour de France. I'll go through the odds and then we'll get Johan's take on who's going to win and how it plays out. But before I do that, I just want to remind everybody, if you're listening and thinking, wow, this is interesting, but I would love to actually bet myself. Well, we have a partner, NextBets, so if you go to nxtbets.com bet outcomes, it will tell you exactly where you can bet where you live, the best signup bonuses on each book, the best odds. I highly recommend it. Again, that's nxtbets.com BET outcomes. There's also a link in the show notes. But Johan, the favorite for tomorrow, which is a 201 kilometer stage. Very difficult, by the way, about 11,000ft of climbing I overheard on the move this morning. Just up and down all day with a very tough climb before the finish. And then it finishes up a steep pitch. Not a classified climb, but probably should be. It's quite hard. The favorite is Tad Pagatra. Plus 250 Matthew Vanderpoel at + 600, Jonas Verd. Plus 1800 Roman Gregoire. Plus 1800 W. Benart. Plus 2400 Julian Alip. Plus 2500 Ben He. Plus 2900 Nielsen Palace. Plus 2900 Maru Schmid. Plus 3100, Kevin Vlon. Plus 3300. It goes on and on. We'll call him out when we. When we need to. But Johan, how is this yet again a classics like stage? How is it going to play out?

[Johan Berniel]

Yeah, long, long stage. 201km. Seven climbs in total from Bayou to Vir, Normandy. I mean, unfortunately, Spencer, I have To. I have to repeat myself with this kind of terrain. And after what we've seen yesterday and today, this is Pullacher terrain. Some. Some people say, okay, it could be a breakaway. There is a possibility. Okay, that's. That's. That's for sure. But you normally. The way I see this, there's going to be a break, and there's going to be a lot of tension in the peloton. It's only stage six. It's up and down. So positioning is constantly important. There's going to be a lot of instructions from the car. Be in the front, be in the front, be in the front. And only that, those instructions and that tension builds up in the peloton, and automatically it's, you know, 47, 48 kilometers per hour cruise speed. So that also makes for that the breakaway cannot take a lot of advantage. The final is very similar to yesterday. You know, there's a climb with the cresting with 5k to go. Not an easy climb, you know, it's 1.2 kilometers. 7. 7%. But the first part is 11. So the peloton is going to want to be, you know, and the guys. The teams will bring the guys to the front. And then with. With 4K to go, it's a bit of downhill. And then the last kilometer is uphill, and the last 700 meters are actually at 10%. So that's quite steep. There's even a pitch of 14%. This is Pogaccia terrain again, I think. I think, you know, it's. If it's that hard for the moment, it doesn't really matter if it's 500 meters, a kilometer or 15 kilometers uphill. There's nobody who can beat Bogota uphill right now. So I'm going to pick him at +2.50.

[Spencer Martin]

Yeah, it's a rare spot to be in. You're right. It could be this. It could be the Finestra, or it could be this climb, which is 1km long. But it's the same outcome. It's Pagachar. I'm also going to go with him. I found he's at +2.50 right now. On Fanduel, I believe. Or. Yeah, FanDuel and BET.365. But someone emailed in. They're like, how do you guys know if it's going to be breakaway or not? It's like, we don't really know. We're just taking our best guess. But there's a confluence of factors. I. I think maybe you didn't say this. Maybe you did. But the time trial like an effective rest day today. So everyone who wants to be in the break took it easy, but we're still so early in this. But that also means the domestiques took it easy. And then There's a sprint 22km into the stage. Little track will keep it together until that sprint point so Jonathan Milan can sprint. Then there's a basically a 6k long 4% climb right after that. That's going to be nuclear fast because the breakaway is going to try to go there. If it doesn't get away, then there's another climb. It's going to try to go there. It will get away at some point, but the, it probably will take a long time. They'll be tired, they'll be easier to pull in. And then there's four climbs in the last half of the stage. And as we saw yesterday on those like the, the GC teams will be so keyed up to be first into it and they'll race it so hard they'll taking chunks of time out of the breakaway and they could catch them almost by accident. And I think there's going to be a cross tailwind which will also make them nervous. Everyone will want to be at the front. If they're cruising along at 50k an hour, it's just hard for a break to build up a big enough gap. I mean even think on that second to last climb how much time they're going to take out of a breakaway. Like if they're going 700 watts for two minutes, they're going to take some time out of them. It's just going to be.

[Johan Berniel]

Yeah. Not just on the climb, but especially the approach to the climb double fast, you know. And we could see for example yesterday Visma was doing a great job of lining it up to make sure that Jonas was in the front. But in those five kilometers, that's, that's like okay, like one and a half minute on a breakaway with that speed. So it's true though, it's state six today after the time trial. There's, you know, there's tired bodies and there's also bodies that save themselves specifically for tomorrow. But still breakaway is going to be difficult. So let's, let's both make sure that we, we get pull out chart.

[Spencer Martin]

Yeah, it's not a sure thing obviously like bet responsibly but you rarely are living in an era with a writer like this and this stage, this early in a Grand tour and a Grand Tour he's this good at, I think he almost Reluctantly wins this. But if he gets there and there's no breakaway, he'll race it and he'll probably win because Vanderpoel, as good as he is, can't stay with him. But Johan, if something does go odd, if something odd happens, are there any wild cards you like?

[Johan Berniel]

I mean, there are wild cards. I think first of all, even if it's all together or, you know, the, the majority of the favorites are together and the punchers are there. There's only one rider, in my opinion who could potentially beat Pugachar on a, on a 700 meter steep climb like this. I have my doubts. But there's one rider who could do that. That's Matthew van der Poel plus. And that's why I'm going to pick him as my wild card. He can also be in the breakaway and win from the break.

[Spencer Martin]

Yes.

[Johan Berniel]

So I think with van der Poel, we're playing on, we're betting on two. On two scenarios and he's plus 550. So I think that's kind of the alternative to the Pogacha scenario.

[Spencer Martin]

I actually just found him at +700 on Caesar, so I'm putting that bet in right now. But yeah, I like Vanderpoel as a wild card because as you say, if it break does go away, he could be in it. And that's UAE would probably like that. If he could get back in the yellow jersey, they'd think that's awesome. Yeah, he's the only rider like, I'm trying to think back to 2021 when he won on have climbs similar to this a little bit longer than this. But it has happened. But it seems hard for it to happen now because production is just that much better.

[Johan Berniel]

The thing is, Spencer, it's not the same Pugach. So much better than 2021.

[Spencer Martin]

So it's a wild time we're living in. But I, I think in that we should say because Pigacha is a plus 250 favorite, it's not like today where the favorite was remcoavanopole at -380. That doesn't leave you a lot of room for your wild cards. You have to be super judicious about how much you put on them. You don't want them to eat into your small profit margin. With Pigatra plus 250, we have a little bit more room to work. You can throw a little bit of money on Vanderpoel. I'm going to go, I'm going deep, deep into left field here. I found Quinn Simmons at +5000. Quinn Simmons, who just won a stage at the tour of Switzerland, plus 5,000 at the book is Caesars. So I'm going, Quinn Simmons, plus 5,000. That's probably a breakaway bet. Um, yeah, in theory. I mean, if something got really tactical, I guess he could get away. He's one of the strongest riders in the peloton, but the problem is he's. Even if you're, like, one of the strongest riders in the peloton, you're still not that strong compared to Pagachar. So if Pagatra really goes up against him, he won't win. But if something strange happens in the finale or a breakaway, Quinn Simmons could win.

[Johan Berniel]

Yeah, no, that's a good one. That's a good one. I mean, there is. There is a potential scenario. It's going to depend on. I would assume the intention of. Of UAE would be, okay, let the breakaway go. It's usually also a diff, even if it's not for the yellow jersey. It's usually also a calmer approach to the finish because the modifications are gone. Right?

[Spencer Martin]

Yeah.

[Johan Berniel]

If there's a breakaway.

[Spencer Martin]

Yeah.

[Johan Berniel]

So it's. It has a lot of advantages for UAE to have a breakaway to the finish, but I think personally that the stress of the race will take care of the breakaway.

[Spencer Martin]

That's probably right. But quinn simmons at plus 5,000, you can just throw a little bit of money on him, and if he wins, you that's actually, I got Matteo Jorgensen to win the whole race at plus 5,000. Probably better chances of Quinn Simmons winning this stage than Matteo Jorgensen winning the whole Tour France. So that's probably a pretty good investment for a small amount of money. But let's take a quick break, then we'll talk about the Head to Heads. And you've been on fire with those lately, so you're going to want to stick around for those. All right, Johan, the head to Heads today's stage, I think you got all but one right yesterday. It's rare. We're very rare to sweep all of them. In theory, you could parlay that and you would get some insane return. So to get all but one is. Is quite good. So for today, this is not FanDuel in the US tape. Minus 235 versus Matthew Vanderpoel, plus 172. And this is interesting because it comes into play even if the breakaway is away. Gotcha.

[Johan Berniel]

Yeah.

[Spencer Martin]

Yeah. I guess Vanderpoel could be in the breakaway, but again, we don't think high Likelihood of that. Rimco Adole minus 205 versus Matias Skelmosa plus 150.

[Johan Berniel]

But I'm cool.

[Spencer Martin]

Yeah, Rimco does look pretty good right now. Roman Gregoire minus 186 versus Kevin Vuklon plus 138. I considered both of these people for the stage, by the way, but.

[Johan Berniel]

Yeah, well, yeah, I mean, listen, if. If. But you are there. They can't win. They're punchy.

[Spencer Martin]

Well, Vaklan can't be in the breakaway. He's too.

[Johan Berniel]

Gregoire can be in the break. In that case. Yeah, I think it's. Then. Then the breakaway needs to make it to the finish. Another. Another thing could be. Okay. Gregoire, he. I read an interview of him. He does have a mission for tomorrow.

[Spencer Martin]

And there's a chance he gets caught, though, and then spat out and Buckland.

[Johan Berniel]

Yeah, but the thing is that if we could also Vocalize is less explosive than Gregoire. Although he did finish two times second on your Dewey. In the flesh balloon already.

[Spencer Martin]

Isn't that crazy?

[Johan Berniel]

The thing is, Vocalin could probably pay the efforts of the time trial a bit because he went really deep and Gregoire didn't. So that could be the difference tomorrow in the final. The question is, you know, once they see, obviously Vocal Eye is gonna, you know, try to lose the least amount of seconds towards. Towards Boucher Gregoire. Once he sees he can. Once he blows up, you know, he's gonna. He's gonna try. He's gonna try to be there. Once he blows up, he's gonna sit up on that. On that steep climb. So I'm gonna go for Vocaland.

[Spencer Martin]

All right. I like it. Positive plus 138. These are my two favorite. Mateo Jorgensen minus 116 versus Joelameda, minus 116. Two guys that want the exact same thing, help their leader and finish as high up as possible.

[Johan Berniel]

Yeah, I'm. I'm wondering what happened to Matteo Jorgensen in the time trial. You know, that's not a good day. So if there's something wrong, I don't know. But personally, I think that Omeida will do a bigger effort than Matteo Jorgensen because the objective of Visma is going to be not lose time, so both Jonas and Matteo can be there and try to lose the least amount of time. If Almeida is there, which I suspect he will be, he will need to lead out. He will need to set the tempo, a fast tempo on. On. On the last climb, the 700 meters. Now, we've also seen that when Almeida puts the tempo there's maybe three or four riders who can follow when he.

[Spencer Martin]

Let out yesterday and he still finished in front of Jorgensen.

[Johan Berniel]

Yeah, yeah. In Jurgensen's defense, he tried two attacks also, so he did spend quite a bit. Jorgensen.

[Spencer Martin]

Okay. Primus Ravich -1. Jorgensen also. I mean, this maybe is too early to talk about it. Maybe this is taboo. Jorgensen might also have to start thinking about eliminating his own losses because he might be the GC leader of that team. Well, maybe. What if. What if there's like a plumbing issue at home for Pagacha or Mid or sorry for Vinegar and he has to go home mid race to fix something around the house? Primus Raglitz minus 172 versus Inrich Moss plus 126. Primos for sure.

[Johan Berniel]

No, he surprisingly. He didn't do a great time trial, but he finished surprisingly good. He did a really good second part of the time.

[Spencer Martin]

Don't sleep on. Primos is coming back. And Bradley Wiggins at a good point in the studio today. He has not crashed yet. And that's like for Primos. He might as well be 10 minutes in the lead.

[Johan Berniel]

Primos. My issue with Primos in this tour is his attitude and his, you know, like, relaxed attitude that. Yeah, we'll see. I don't care. He said several times. I don't care. Which. If I. His team boss or the sponsor, I would be furious.

[Spencer Martin]

Well, also think about his teammates. They've just spent like weeks at altitude camp away from their families. Yeah, that would be dispiriting. So, yeah, he might. He might have gone full Primos here a little too, if he's gone too far with the relaxed thing, but I don't. I think he might be in for a good second half of the race. I like him to beat Moss tomorrow.

[Johan Berniel]

Yeah. Anything else? Had a horrible time throughout today.

[Spencer Martin]

Also get a great three stage. First three stages, though.

[Johan Berniel]

Yeah, it can change pretty quickly in the Tour de France.

[Spencer Martin]

Yeah. Anything else, Johan, before we take off?

[Johan Berniel]

Nope, that's it.

[Spencer Martin]

All right, well, you will talk tomorrow. Have a good evening.

[Johan Berniel]

Okay, thanks, Spencer.

[Spencer Martin]

Bye.