Tour de France Stage 8 Preview | OŪTCOMES

Summary

Podcast Episode Summary: Tour de France Stage 8 Preview | OŪTCOMES

Release Date: July 11, 2025
Hosts: Spencer Martin and Johan Berniel
Podcast: OŪTCOMES

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Introduction

In this episode of OŪTCOMES, hosts Spencer Martin and Johan Berniel delve into the intricacies of Stage 8 of the Tour de France, analyzing the race's dynamics, predicting potential winners, and discussing the best betting odds. This 171km stage is characterized as a sprint stage with a challenging slightly uphill finish in the last kilometer, making it a pivotal point for sprinters and general classification (GC) contenders alike.

Betting Odds and Predictions

Spencer's Overview of Betting Odds:

Spencer Martin begins the discussion by outlining the current betting odds for Stage 8, providing listeners with a clear picture of the favorites and longshots:

• Jonathan Milan: +137
• Tim Merlier: +200
• Binyamin Girmay: +1000
• Kaden Groves: +1600
• Jordy Mayos: +1800
• W Art: +2000
• Phil Bous: +3100
• Danny Ben Popel: +3300

He emphasizes the partnership with Next Bets, guiding listeners to visit nxtbets.com/betoutcomes for more information on placing bets and taking advantage of signup bonuses.

In-Depth Analysis and Predictions

Jonathan Milan vs. Tim Merlier:

Johan Berniel concurs with Spencer's assessment that Stage 8 is poised to end in a bunch sprint, largely dominated by Jonathan Milan, who currently dons the green jersey. However, Johan introduces an alternative pick:

“I’m going to pick Tim Merlier doing the stage. He's plus 175. He just has Bert van der Ber here. Merlier has shown that he knows how to navigate his way through the peloton in the final of a race” (02:12).

Spencer, on the other hand, opts for Jonathan Milan, citing his exceptional power output on uphill finishes:

“Milan produces so much power for so long. Can be hard to come around him on those uphill finishes” (05:38).

Binyamin Girmay as a Wild Card:

Johan highlights Binyamin Girmay as a wild card pick with some transformative performance throughout the Tour:

“The Tour transforms Binyamin Girmay. He's now on a really good level. He's very ambitious also for the green Jersey” (00:00).

He suggests betting on Girmay to win the stage at +900 odds and also placing a bet on him for a podium finish at +150.

Kaden Groves for Both Stage Win and Podium:

Spencer introduces Kaden Groves as another wild card, valuing his all-around fitness and strategic advantage in a fatigued peloton:

“He's a really good all around rider. A very fit guy for a sprinter. Tends to do well when other people are tired” (07:34).

He proposes betting on Groves for both the stage win and a podium finish, given his potential to capitalize on other riders' exhaustion.

Green Jersey Competition

The discussion shifts to the ongoing battle for the green jersey, with both hosts emphasizing the likelihood of either Jonathan Milan or Podachi securing it:

“After today, it's either going to be Milan or Kubacha who is the green jersey” (08:24).

They acknowledge Matthew van der Poel's diminished chances in contention, concluding that his focus will likely shift away from the green jersey.

Head-to-Head Matchups

Spencer and Johan explore specific head-to-head betting scenarios, evaluating riders' performances and their potential impact on Stage 8:

• Tadav Pagachar (-144) vs. Jonas Vinnegaard (+106): Johan predicts Jonas Vinnegaard as the winner.

• Jake Stewart (-116) vs. Stein Friedheim (-116): Both riders are assessed based on their team roles and sprinting capabilities, with potential for either to spearhead their team’s efforts in the stage’s final sprint.

• Binyamin Girmay (-164) vs. Kaden Groves (+118): A crucial matchup where Groves is favored due to his strategic positioning and fitness, despite Girmay’s strong transformation throughout the Tour.

Notable Quotes

• Johan Berniel on Milan's Versatility:
  “Jonathan Milan is not just a sprinter, he's a very, very good bike rider.” (04:54)

• Spencer Martin on Milan's Uphill Power:
  “Milan produces so much power for so long. Can be hard to come around him on those uphill finishes.” (05:38)

• Johan Berniel on Binyamin Girmay:
  “The Tour transforms Binyamin Girmay. He's now on a really good level.” (00:00)

• Discussion on Head-to-Head Matchups:
  “Jonas. Jake Stewart minus 116. Stein Friedheim minus 116. This is one of the most interesting ones to me.” (10:20)

Conclusion

The episode wraps up with a summary of predictions and a teaser for future discussions on top ten and general classification bets as the Tour progresses. Spencer and Johan encourage listeners to stay tuned for ongoing analysis and updates, highlighting the dynamic nature of the race and the evolving strategies of the contenders.

“We'll talk tomorrow. Thanks, Johan.” (12:47)

Final Thoughts

This comprehensive preview of Stage 8 offers listeners valuable insights into the potential outcomes and strategic betting opportunities. Spencer Martin and Johan Berniel provide a balanced analysis, considering both established favorites and emerging dark horses, ensuring that fans and bettors alike are well-informed as the Tour de France continues to unfold.

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Transcript

[Johan Berniel]

But the Tour transforms Binyamin Guelmaj. He's now on a really good level. He's very ambitious also for the green Jersey and he's plus 900. Slightly uphill sprint is also good for Binyang.

[Spencer Martin]

Hi, I'm Spencer Martin along with Johan Berniel, and this is Outcomes.

[Podcast Disclaimer]

Outcomes is for informational entertainment purposes only. Nothing in this podcast should be considered financial advice. Please gamble responsibly and if you or someone you know has a gambling problem, seek help from a professional resource. Hosts and guests may have financial interests in the bets discussed. Past performance, not guaranteed future results.

[Spencer Martin]

Everybody. Welcome back to Outcomes. I'm Spencer Martin and I'm here with Johan Berniele and we are predicting stage eight of the Tour de France 171km, likely sprint stage with a tricky little uphill last kilometer. But I'll list off the odds and then Johan will tell us who he thinks is going to win and how it's going to play out. I'll also pick a winner as well. Jonathan Milan is the favorite at plus 137. Timberlier at plus 200. Binyam Garma at plus 1000. Kane Groves plus 1600. Jordy Mayos plus 1800. W Art plus 2000. Phil Bous plus 3100. Danny Ben Popel plus 3300. It goes on and on. We'll call them out when we need to. If those numbers are nonsense to you, if you don't know how to bet, you think it sounds fun, but it's overwhelming, don't worry, we have a partner with Next. We have a partner Next Bets. But you go to nxt bets.com bet outcomes and there's a link in the show notes as well. It will show you exactly where you can bet in the state where you live and the books that have the best signup bonuses. I highly recommend, recommend doing this. I use it myself to find signup bonuses. But Johan, how do you think this is going to play out? I assume you think sprint stage and who do you think is going to win?

[Johan Berniel]

Yeah, Spencer, I think it's for sure sprint stage, I mean, tomorrow and the day after. It's, it's, you know, it's been a few days now since the sprinters didn't have the opportunity and some teams are here purely with the sprinter and amongst them mainly little track. They're here for basically for Jonathan Milan. He's now in the green jersey. Or is he? No, is in the green jersey. He's wearing the green jersey on behalf of that.

[Spencer Martin]

So.

[Johan Berniel]

Yes, but, but you know, I think first objective is to win a stage and for sure he has ambition for, for the green jersey. So I think it's going to be a bunch print. Milan has the best lead out train but I am going to pick Timberlir doing the stage. He's plus 175. Doesn't necessarily have the best lead out train if any. He just has Bert van der Ber here. But Nalir has shown that he knows how to navigate his way through the peloton in the final of a race and he just needs to focus on Milan. That Milan and his teammates are going to be the lead out train for Tim Merlier in my opinion. And on stage on a, on a finish like this, slightly uphill to 3% if you can, if you can believe the profile. I think for Merlier that's also a great finish. It is for Milan too. But since we both have the big one, I'm going to go with Tim Merlier.

[Spencer Martin]

Yeah, it's, it's good pick. Probably the odds are flipped. Like I don't quite understand why Merlier is not the favorite here because he's. I, I see him at +200 on FanDuel right now. I was a little worried about like well does he really win multiple stages in a Grand Tour? But I went back to the 2024 Tour and he won three 2024 0. Sorry. He won three stages against Jonathan Milan, Benny and Grimai and Kaden Grove. So the, the, the four top sprinters at this race. He's probably the fastest sprinter at this race but I'm going to pick just because of that uphill finish and also he's not going to sprint at the intermediate sprint while Milan is. So there's a good case for Tim earlier. I'm going to pick Jonathan Milan. I see him at +150 right in front of my face on Fanduel. I'm going to pick him at that just because of the uphill kick. I guess that that's why Milan is probably the favorite because he tend. It's funny because he's so big you'd think he wouldn't be as good on uphill finishes but he just produces so much power for so long. Can be hard to come around him on those uphill finishes. Also at the Tour we used to see riders spread winds around amongst themselves with, with Jasper Phillips and that hasn't really been the case. But I'm going to go Milan because Andy's looked really good in these intermediate sprints. Maybe he can, he can give some of that juice in the, in the, for the sprint finish. Hopefully he's not too gassed, but I'm going to go, Milan. I think that this could be the stage that he wins at this race.

[Johan Berniel]

Yeah, for sure. I mean, it's, it's, he's, he's one of the, of the main guys. Let's not forget, you know, Jonathan Milan is not just a sprinter, he's a very, very good bike rider.

[Spencer Martin]

Yeah.

[Johan Berniel]

You know anybody who, I mean, let's not forget this is the world records holder over 4 kilometer pursuit on the velodrome. There's not many sprinters. I don't know any sprinter who can do that. So he's much more than a sprinter, which is also.

[Spencer Martin]

Yeah, he's potentially Unaero. We were noticing that in the studio the other day and the fast finish, he's very like upright, probably eats a lot of wind. So an uphill finish I guess is better for him because the speeds are lower. He's not, it's not as punishing for him.

[Johan Berniel]

Yeah, yeah, big power. Big power.

[Spencer Martin]

Yeah, big, yeah. How many sprinter, how many big sprinters have been 4k pursuit champions? Have you ever seen that before? I'm not sure I have.

[Johan Berniel]

No.

[Spencer Martin]

Maybe Marcel Kittle, was he like a.

[Johan Berniel]

Well, Kittle has been. Kittel had been world champion time trial juniors.

[Spencer Martin]

Okay.

[Johan Berniel]

But you know, that's still when they are kind of discovering, I mean, I don't know what the distance was in the time trial in the juniors, but 200 meters, he would never win a time trial in professionals, at least not, you know, any. No time trial over 10km. Sprinters, sometimes they can do good in prologues, you know, like, yeah, short prologues, we have them less and less, but yeah, 3, 4 kilometer, 5 kilometer prologue. Sometimes the sprinter could do really well, but, but yeah, Milan, I mean, 4 kilometer, the 4 kilometer individual effort on the track, that's like, that's in you, that's an endurance event. That's not a, that's not a sprint event.

[Spencer Martin]

And it, and it shows. That's why he's such a good climber. Like a lot of people compare him to Marcel Kittle. I'm like, Marcel Kittle couldn't climb his way out of a paper bag. And like, Jonathan Milan is a really good climber, which you have to, you, you have to have really good sustained power to be a 4k pursuit or. That makes sense if one of these two does not win. Johan, do you have a wild card pick?

[Johan Berniel]

Yeah, I think I'm gonna go With Binyamin Girmai. If you would have asked me, you know, for stage one and two, I would have said no, you know, because we haven't seen anything from Gurmail yet this season before the Tour de France. But the Tour transforms Binyomin Girmay. He's now on a, on a really good level. He's very ambitious also for the green Jersey and he's plus 900. Slightly uphill sprint is also good for Binyamin Girmay. I'm gonna pick him to win the stage at 900, but I'm also gonna put some money on him for the podium. 150. I think that's probably one of the best bets of this show. Podium for Binyam Girmai. 150.

[Spencer Martin]

Yeah, yeah. Isn't that amazing? Because yeah, there's three of, three of those spots are available and it's the same odds as Jonathan Milan. Winning the ST&1000 is pretty good. Like if Gai wins a stage, it's going to be a stage just like this. The +150 for the podium I think is really good. But I'm going to go. Guy has been quiet, but he's got to step up. There's been changes in the team. Kaden Groves, plus 1600 for the win, plus 225 for the podium. I'm going, I'm, I'm doing both of those because he's a really just fit, he's a good all around rider. A very fit guy for a sprinter. Tends to do well when other people are tired. I'd imagine there's going to be a lot of tired legs in that sprint tomorrow. So I'm going to go Groves for my wild card and my podium.

[Johan Berniel]

Okay. Yeah, I, I support that.

[Spencer Martin]

And I assume he'll have Matthew Vanderpoel on lead out duty. I don't think the green jersey is a. I just don't really see how Vanderpoel could win the green jersey at this point. No, he's not going for a bunch.

[Johan Berniel]

No, I think, I think at this point van der Poel is going to give up on the green jersey. Yeah, I think that's probably something you play with during a few days, see how it goes. But no, after today, no, it's, it's either going to be Milan or Kubacha who is the green jersey. I, I think, I think we can say this already now.

[Spencer Martin]

Yeah, like if Milan crashes out, it's actually hard to imagine how well, well.

[Johan Berniel]

Not even, not even crashing out. I mean, Pogacha is going to score a lot of points still.

[Spencer Martin]

That would be. Yeah, man. We'll see after this next two days. That. That would be unbelievable.

[Johan Berniel]

Look at it this way, we're seven stages in. We didn't have any mountain stage yet. Who's leading in the green jersey competition?

[Spencer Martin]

Well, on, on, on that note, I just need to share this fact with you because no one on set cared about it. We haven't had a mountain yet, Johan. And we had a time trial where Pagatra lost time and he's almost a minute in the lead in the gc. That's unbelievable. Yeah, those are big gaps for basically just a few time bonuses and a time trial where he didn't even win. He wasn't even top amongst the GC contenders. That was the worst stage for GC that he's going to face at this tour and he's almost a minute in front of everybody. And yeah, he might win the green jersey. It's pretty incredible. But let's take a quick break and then we'll get back to your head to heads, which you're doing pretty well on the last few days, so you're going to want to stick around for that. All right, first head to head. This is on Fanduel in the US Tada Pagachar minus 144 versus Jonas Vinnegaard plus 106.

[Johan Berniel]

Jonas.

[Spencer Martin]

Jonas. Jake Stewart minus 116. Stein Friedheim minus 116. This is one of the most interesting ones to me. Wow.

[Johan Berniel]

Steward is the guy on Israel, right?

[Spencer Martin]

Yeah. Not clear to me that he's even gonna. At some point do they switch to him for the sprinter?

[Johan Berniel]

Yeah. Well, I guess the thinking behind this is that Stewart is going to lead out for Ackerman and the other. The Norwegian guy is going to lead out for Wearenskild. And it depends how much they slow down each of them. That's a difficult one. Jake Stewart.

[Spencer Martin]

Yeah. I mean just to go back to stage three. Jake Stewart's 14th. Stein is 29th, so that's pretty high up. Jake Stewart in 14th. I. I also would not rule out Jake Stewart eventually sprinting for that team. Then the guy win us. Do you want to stage at the Dofine Sprints?

[Johan Berniel]

Yeah, yeah, yeah. Not the same thing though. Not the same race.

[Spencer Martin]

But it's like what, you know, if you're running away from a lion, you don't have to be faster than the lion. You have to be faster than the other person. With you it's like he doesn't have to be faster than Merlier. He just has to be faster than Pascal Ackerman to be sprinting. So Benny M. Grimai, minus 164 versus Kaden Groves, plus 118. This is the wild card ship.

[Johan Berniel]

Yeah, I'm gonna.

[Spencer Martin]

Okay.

[Johan Berniel]

Yeah.

[Spencer Martin]

I mean, yeah, if you think about it. It's the defending green jersey winner against the lead. A guy who came in to lead up.

[Johan Berniel]

Seems like he's getting into the rhythm. I have the feeling like you can also hear in his, you know, in his interviews, he's getting the confidence compared to the first few stages.

[Spencer Martin]

I mean, he. He's. He has an incredible ability to be good at the Tour for reasons I don't fully understand after being quiet all year. So I don't think we've seen the last of Gai at this Tour. Well, anything else, Johan, before we take off?

[Johan Berniel]

No, that's it for me.

[Spencer Martin]

All right. And then we'll. We'll. We will check in on, like, there's actually some interesting, like, top tens and GC bets you can place, but we're going to wait a few days, and then maybe we'll jump in on that on Monday after that stuff stage.

[Johan Berniel]

Okay, well, thanks, Spencer.

[Spencer Martin]

We'll talk tomorrow. Thanks, Johan.

[Johan Berniel]

Bye.