Podcast Episode Summary: Tour de France Stage 8 Preview | OŪTCOMES

Release Date: July 11, 2025
Hosts: Spencer Martin and Johan Berniel
Podcast: OŪTCOMES

Introduction

In this episode of OŪTCOMES, hosts Spencer Martin and Johan Berniel delve into the intricacies of Stage 8 of the Tour de France, analyzing the race's dynamics, predicting potential winners, and discussing the best betting odds. This 171km stage is characterized as a sprint stage with a challenging slightly uphill finish in the last kilometer, making it a pivotal point for sprinters and general classification (GC) contenders alike.

Betting Odds and Predictions

Spencer's Overview of Betting Odds:

Spencer Martin begins the discussion by outlining the current betting odds for Stage 8, providing listeners with a clear picture of the favorites and longshots:

• Jonathan Milan: +137
• Tim Merlier: +200
• Binyamin Girmay: +1000
• Kaden Groves: +1600
• Jordy Mayos: +1800
• W Art: +2000
• Phil Bous: +3100
• Danny Ben Popel: +3300

He emphasizes the partnership with Next Bets, guiding listeners to visit nxtbets.com/betoutcomes for more information on placing bets and taking advantage of signup bonuses.

In-Depth Analysis and Predictions

Jonathan Milan vs. Tim Merlier:

Johan Berniel concurs with Spencer's assessment that Stage 8 is poised to end in a bunch sprint, largely dominated by Jonathan Milan, who currently dons the green jersey. However, Johan introduces an alternative pick:

“I’m going to pick Tim Merlier doing the stage. He's plus 175. He just has Bert van der Ber here. Merlier has shown that he knows how to navigate his way through the peloton in the final of a race” (02:12).

Spencer, on the other hand, opts for Jonathan Milan, citing his exceptional power output on uphill finishes:

“Milan produces so much power for so long. Can be hard to come around him on those uphill finishes” (05:38).

Binyamin Girmay as a Wild Card:

Johan highlights Binyamin Girmay as a wild card pick with some transformative performance throughout the Tour:

“The Tour transforms Binyamin Girmay. He's now on a really good level. He's very ambitious also for the green Jersey” (00:00).

He suggests betting on Girmay to win the stage at +900 odds and also placing a bet on him for a podium finish at +150.

Kaden Groves for Both Stage Win and Podium:

Spencer introduces Kaden Groves as another wild card, valuing his all-around fitness and strategic advantage in a fatigued peloton:

“He's a really good all around rider. A very fit guy for a sprinter. Tends to do well when other people are tired” (07:34).

He proposes betting on Groves for both the stage win and a podium finish, given his potential to capitalize on other riders' exhaustion.

Green Jersey Competition

The discussion shifts to the ongoing battle for the green jersey, with both hosts emphasizing the likelihood of either Jonathan Milan or Podachi securing it:

“After today, it's either going to be Milan or Kubacha who is the green jersey” (08:24).

They acknowledge Matthew van der Poel's diminished chances in contention, concluding that his focus will likely shift away from the green jersey.

Head-to-Head Matchups

Spencer and Johan explore specific head-to-head betting scenarios, evaluating riders' performances and their potential impact on Stage 8:

• Tadav Pagachar (-144) vs. Jonas Vinnegaard (+106): Johan predicts Jonas Vinnegaard as the winner.

• Jake Stewart (-116) vs. Stein Friedheim (-116): Both riders are assessed based on their team roles and sprinting capabilities, with potential for either to spearhead their team’s efforts in the stage’s final sprint.

• Binyamin Girmay (-164) vs. Kaden Groves (+118): A crucial matchup where Groves is favored due to his strategic positioning and fitness, despite Girmay’s strong transformation throughout the Tour.

Notable Quotes

• Johan Berniel on Milan's Versatility:
  “Jonathan Milan is not just a sprinter, he's a very, very good bike rider.” (04:54)

• Spencer Martin on Milan's Uphill Power:
  “Milan produces so much power for so long. Can be hard to come around him on those uphill finishes.” (05:38)

• Johan Berniel on Binyamin Girmay:
  “The Tour transforms Binyamin Girmay. He's now on a really good level.” (00:00)

• Discussion on Head-to-Head Matchups:
  “Jonas. Jake Stewart minus 116. Stein Friedheim minus 116. This is one of the most interesting ones to me.” (10:20)

Conclusion

The episode wraps up with a summary of predictions and a teaser for future discussions on top ten and general classification bets as the Tour progresses. Spencer and Johan encourage listeners to stay tuned for ongoing analysis and updates, highlighting the dynamic nature of the race and the evolving strategies of the contenders.

“We'll talk tomorrow. Thanks, Johan.” (12:47)

Final Thoughts

This comprehensive preview of Stage 8 offers listeners valuable insights into the potential outcomes and strategic betting opportunities. Spencer Martin and Johan Berniel provide a balanced analysis, considering both established favorites and emerging dark horses, ensuring that fans and bettors alike are well-informed as the Tour de France continues to unfold.