THEMOVE Podcast Summary

Episode: Tour Down Under: Is Jay Vine a Future GC Star at UAE? | THEMOVE+
Date: January 23, 2026
Host: Spencer Martin (filling in for Lance Armstrong)
Guest: Johan Bruyneel

Episode Overview

This episode dives deep into the 2026 WorldTour season’s kickoff at the Tour Down Under. The discussion centers on Jay Vine's dominance with UAE Team Emirates, evaluating his Grand Tour (GC) potential, analysis of team tactics, the evolving nature of early-season form, shifts among WorldTour teams, and broader cycling tech and logistics. The tone is analytical, insider-y, and occasionally irreverent, with stories and strong opinions from both longtime cycling insiders.

Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. Tour Down Under Recap and Jay Vine’s Performance

• Stage and Prologue Wins: Recap of Sam Watson’s prologue win for INEOS and Tobias Lund Andersen’s surprise sprint win for Decathlon.

• UAE’s Dominance:

  • UAE Team Emirates showcased enormous control, particularly on Stage 2’s Corkscrew climb.
  • Jay Vine and Jonathan Narváez broke away decisively, putting nearly a minute into the field. Adam Yates set the pace to launch Vine.
  • B: “These two UAE guys were above everybody else. I did watch the climb and it was impressive that first of all they took control of the whole stage... Adam Yates set a pace with Jay Vine on the wheel and everybody else was on the limit. The only guy who could bridge up was Narváez, who is super explosive... but was on the limit until the last few kilometers, couldn't take a single pull.” [06:00]

• Exclamation Point on Vine’s Level:

  • Jay Vine also won the Australian TT Championships—a tough and highly competitive event—pointing to his complete skill set.
  • He “is probably the highest quality rider in this field or at least of all the top GC contenders, the best prepared.” [07:57]

• Impact of Stage Modifications:

  • Wilunga Hill, the iconic decisive climb, was canceled due to extreme weather and fire risk. This all but locked in the GC unless something unusual happens.
  • Vine’s dominance is underlined by large time gaps back to third place (Mar Schmid, over a minute behind).

2. Jay Vine’s Watts, Numbers & What Sets Him Apart

• Power Numbers: Jay Vine’s Corkscrew Climb:

  • ~7.3 w/kg for 12 minutes (entire climb)

  • 7.8 w/kg for the steepest 6 minutes (~530 watts)

  • “That’s not easy to follow.” – A (Spencer), [10:00]

  • Harry Sweeney quote (via Johan):
    “The moment Jay Vine accelerated, he was doing 600 watts. What else do you want to do?... He thought his power meter was broken.” [11:16]

• Insight: There’s very little anyone can do when UAE rides this way—they have the best prep, resources, and tactical acumen.

  • “It is the number one team in the world. They hire the best riders. They train like crazy all year.” – B [11:49]

3. Changing Norms: Peaking Early and Its Modern Meaning

• Past vs. Present:
  • Decade ago, being this strong at Tour Down Under was considered peaking too soon; now, it’s a strong indicator for a great year ahead.
  • “Cycling has changed so much – the way they train in the offseason now… [the] only real risk is you get sick.” – B [13:29]
  • Teams train as hard or harder in camps than in these early races. Massive rides at race-like intensity—almost eliminating the need to race into form.

4. Jay Vine’s GC Ceiling and Future Role

• GC Star or Elite Domestique?

  • Spencer: Vine’s Grand Tour future is complicated by the fact UAE has established GC candidates (Pogačar, Almeida, Yates), and Vine is 30 years old, has not podiumed in a GT nor finished top five.

  • Johan: “He will always have a leader (at UAE) he has to be at the service of—and then can win stages… It’s a great situation for him.” [20:49]

  • Vine is unlikely to be granted full GC leadership at UAE, but might get more chances elsewhere—if he wants them.

  • Should he leave? Consensus is he’s valued, but his “project” status (development potential) is limited by age and existing palmarès. Also, unknown if he even wants the #1 GC role and the pressure that comes with it.

  • B: “Is Jay Vine a personality who can deal with the pressure of the leadership?” [22:40]

• Hypotheticals About His Value:

  • Market value likely north of €2 million/year if he sought to lead at Jayco or other teams.
  • Teams were “tripping over themselves to pay millions of dollars and transfer millions of euros for Derek Gee,” which gives context to Vine’s value. [25:43]

• Physical/Tactical Limitation:

  • Vine is exceptional at time trials and climbing, but perhaps lacks some tactical nous, and has a history of crashes and struggles with positioning.

  • “People say he’s not able to ride in the peloton… He did come relatively late to the European peloton. I think he struggles still with positioning… If at 30 years old you haven’t learned it, you're probably never going to learn it.” [29:07]

  • Jay Vine is not just “a Zwift rider”—he had an actual Australian road racing career pre-European pro.

• Memorable Moment:

  • Johan: “I was surprised to see… he’s not very aero on the bike, sits up really high. If he goes a little more aero, he’d go even faster.” [27:38]
  • Spencer’s son, age 5, notices the same thing: “Why is that guy so un-aero?” [28:02]

5. Parallels & What-Ifs

• Roglič Comparison:
  • Roglič only won his first Grand Tour at age 30 – suggesting maybe Vine could ‘break out’ late, but countered by Roglič’s earlier top-4 results.
  • “They kind of remind me of each other a little bit.” – A

6. Tech Talk: Equipment, Bikes, and UCI Rules

• Bike Advances:

  • Team-bike partnerships dramatically increase brand know-how; team requests are driving aerodynamics and frame evolution.
  • Stock race bikes are often already near the 6.8kg UCI limit. Increasingly, all teams can hit that threshold, but the wealthiest squads can afford customizations for riders’ preferences.
  • Johan: “Any bike brand could probably make a 6 kilo bike if they really want to.” [52:09]
  • UCI weight limit hasn’t shifted in decades—discussion if it should now be reduced, or tied to a rider-plus-bike formula (like Formula 1).

• Aero vs. Weight:

  • “If the weight limit wasn’t there, there would be no aero bikes… they can make these so light now.” [48:56]

7. WorldTour Team Shifts

• INEOS Grenadiers:

  • Early season shows a more aggressive, front-foot racing approach but lacks true top GC-quality riders (so far).
  • “They are proactive… but for the moment, not going to rival UAE… maybe not even Visma.” – B [37:48]
  • Oscar Onley’s signing is big, but it’s about building up—not immediate transformation.

• Kit Talk:

  • Difficulties in distinguishing teams on TV because of similar kit colors (multiple blue kits, etc.).
  • Joking proposal: winner of UCI team ranking gets to draft primary color for the next year.
  • Praise for standout kits: “NSN might be my favorite jersey. It’s unique, it stands out and looks great in the peloton.” [41:53]

• Astana's Good Start:

  • Scaroni’s early win suggests they’ll avoid a relegation struggle.
  • Compliments for new XDS bikes, rumored to be the lightest on market.

8. Logistics & Broadcasting

• Where to Watch Cycling in 2026 (esp. US):
  • Peacock: ASO races (Tour de France, Vuelta, Paris-Nice, etc.)
  • FloBikes: Flanders Classics, Romandie, World Championships, and more via Canadian feed + VPN workaround
  • HBO Max: Used to have RCS (Giro, Strade Bianche), but unclear for 2026
  • Very complex and ever-changing (especially in US and UK); link to chart provided on the podcast website.

9. Listener Q&A

• Team Tactics – Why Put a Rider in a Breakaway When Your GC Leader is in the Peloton?

  • Many advantages: No need to chase, option to drop back and support leader, tactical pressure on rivals, psychological edge, and can neutralize opposing breakaways.
  • Memorable example: Wout van Aert in the Giro, Sep Kuss winning the Vuelta from a break.
  • “Whatever happens, you can always call that guy back… The guys who go in breaks are the guys that would normally get dropped when the big battle is going on.” – B [60:16]
  • Adds further strategic depth by breaking the will of a breakaway group.

• Director Sportif Life:

  • In the 1990s, Postal had just two directors for the whole year; now teams employ many, so directors specialize by block of races/riders.
  • Most directors are based in Europe and their schedules are now manageable, except for major strains caused by multiple altitude camps.
  • “Nowadays, the way the sport is organized, it’s not that big a deal… But logistically, training camps are another Grand Tour.” – B [70:41]

• Deepest Sufferers: Who Could Go Deepest in the Pain Cave?

  • Johan: Alex Zülle, twice Vuelta winner, was legendary: “I have never seen anybody who could suffer more than that guy… he would just fall off his bike after the finish, he went so deep.” [65:25]

Notable Quotes & Moments (with Timestamps)

• On Jay Vine’s dominance:

  • “These two UAE guys were above everybody else… Adam Yates set a pace with Jay Vine on the wheel and everybody else was on the limit.” – Johan [06:00]

• On modern early-season form:

  • “If you look at the last few years…this is not, how do you explain that? Why did it used to be bad to be so strong at the Tour Down Under and now it feels like it’s indicative of someone that’s about to have a good year?” – Spencer [12:52]
  • “The training is just off-the-charts now. The only thing that’s a risk is getting sick.” – Johan [13:29]

• On Jay Vine’s ‘ceiling’:

  • “He will always have a leader… he has to be at the service of, and then has the opportunity to win stages.” – Johan [20:49]
  • “Is Jay Vine a personality who can deal with the pressure of leadership?” – Johan [22:40]

• On insider family life:

  • “My 5-year-old son noticed it too—‘Why is that guy so un-aero?’” – Spencer [28:02]

• On suffering:

  • “[Alex Zülle] could just ride until he literally… fell off his bike after the finish. Never seen anybody who could go deeper.” – Johan [65:25]

Important Timestamps

• UAE’s control and Vine’s performance: [06:00–09:00]
• Jay Vine’s power numbers: [09:25–11:40]
• Modern early peaks and training: [12:52–15:34]
• GC discussion: Is Vine a leader or super domestique? [19:09–24:22]
• Peloton positioning & Jay Vine’s late arrival to Europe: [29:07]
• Breakaway tactics explained: [59:54–63:46]
• Director Sportif logistics & workload: [68:17–71:39]
• On suffering: Alex Zülle story: [65:03–67:47]

Tone and Style

The show blends deep insider knowledge, technical breakdowns, and honest, direct opinions. The hosts riff with humor and candor, not shying from critical or provocative takes—while tailor-making insights for die-hard fans eager to understand the “why” behind the race.

For Listeners Who Missed the Episode

This episode is an essential listen for fans who want a detailed, warts-and-all debrief of both the race and the state of pro cycling. If you’re interested in Jay Vine’s talent ceiling, evolution in team tactics and tech, or how to actually watch WorldTour cycling in 2026, this is your ultimate behind-the-scenes primer.