What is Juan Ayuso's Future at UAE? | Vuelta a España Stage 6 Analysis & Stage 7 Preview | THEMOVE+

Summary

THEMOVE Podcast Summary

Episode: What is Juan Ayuso's Future at UAE? | Vuelta a España Stage 6 Analysis & Stage 7 Preview

Date: August 28, 2025
Hosts: Spencer Martin & Johan Bruyneel

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Episode Overview

In this episode of THEMOVE, hosts Spencer Martin and Johan Bruyneel deliver a detailed breakdown of Stage 6 of the 2025 Vuelta a España, won by Jay Vine. The main narrative centers around Juan Ayuso's surprising loss of time and his uncertain future role at UAE Team Emirates. The hosts question Ayuso’s current form, his mentality, and speculate on his trajectory with UAE amidst internal competition and transfer rumors. The discussion then pivots to a preview of Stage 7, analyzing likely outcomes and strategy considerations for both breakaway specialists and GC contenders.

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Key Discussion Points and Insights

1. Stage 6 Breakdown: Old-School Mountain Stage & Jay Vine’s Dominance

• The Race Dynamic:

  • The stage followed a classic formula: an early breakaway that was permitted to go up the road by the peloton, specifically due to Visma-Lease a Bike showing little interest in chasing (00:45).
  • Jay Vine was identified as the strongest in the break:

    “It was obvious Jay Vine was going to win the stage from like 10 minutes into the breakaway. Like he was just so much stronger.” – Spencer Martin (01:02)

  • Trek controlled the peloton into the final two climbs, but Ayuso “gets dropped—kind of an odd sight, like not suffering, but not staying with the group up front” (01:14).
  • Almeida steadied himself, caught back to the GC group, then attacked. He “leads the group in in 10th place…” (01:55).

• General Classification (GC) Takeaways:

  • Main implications were time losses for Ben O’Connor, Santiago Buitrago, and a significant loss for Juan Ayuso—essentially ending his GC hopes (01:58).
  • Torstein Træen (Bahrain Victorious) takes the red jersey, “54 seconds back…Great reward for him—a recovering testicular cancer patient,” as Johan highlights (05:44).

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2. Jay Vine’s Vuelta Prowess & Tactics

• Purposeful time losses in early stages allowed Vine to target breakaways:

  “There was obviously a reason why he lost already so much time…probably on purpose…definitely the plan for him to go in breaks. The Vuelta is his race, man.” – Johan Bruyneel (03:04)

  • His third Vuelta stage win (03:19).

• Vine’s Stage Approach:

  • Attack timing debated:

    “Jay Vine probably attacked too early because Torstein [Træen] and Bruno Armirail were just going for the lead, not really the stage.” – Spencer Martin (06:15)

  • His freedom for stage wins comes from racing in a strong, deep team like UAE (20:31).

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3. Juan Ayuso’s Crisis: Form, Attitude, and Future at UAE

• Ayuso’s Preparation and Mindset:

  • Late addition to Vuelta after an injury-affected Giro (07:02).
  • Did not participate in team altitude training camp in Andorra:

    “One rider who was not there was Juan Ayuso. He was training at home…” – Johan Bruyneel (08:13)

  • Entered Vuelta with low preparation and “wait and see” attitude (08:53).

• Riding Style and Mentality:

  • Recurrent focus on himself in interviews:

    “I rarely hear him talk about teammates or about the team. It's always about what he did…if he felt great or didn’t feel great.” – Johan Bruyneel (00:00 & 13:14)

  • Example of Ayuso, post-stage:

    “The Spanish press gets on him…they’re asking, ‘It’s a great day for the team.’ And he says, ‘Oh, well, I don’t know what happened, who won.’” – Johan Bruyneel (13:14)

  • Speculation whether he’d work for the team now that his GC is over (17:06).

• Speculation About Transfer and Team Role:

  • Rumors driven by Ayuso changing his social media profile picture stirred speculation about a transfer to Movistar or Lidl-Trek (10:35).
  • Contract likely has a prohibitive buyout clause (15:00). Johan doubts he’ll switch teams.
  • UAE has a deep roster: Del Toro, Pogacar, Almeida all ahead in the pecking order for Grand Tour leadership (10:14).

• Development Potential and Next Steps:

  • Johan advocates a focus on one-week stage races “which he’s great at” and not Grand Tour leadership (11:22).
  • Doubts if Ayuso mentally accepts this advice, given his champion’s mindset:

    “Before he turned pro, Ayuso had the mind of a champion…winner…It’s about him.” (12:29)

  • Both hosts question if he’ll work as a domestique or seek stage wins, referencing his lack of Grand Tour finishes since 2023 (18:22).

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4. Comparative Rider Analysis

• Ayuso, Remco, and Climbing vs. TT Form:

  • Some riders (ex: Ayuso, Remco Evenepoel) appear to hit top climbing form only when they are at peak condition, unlike Pogacar for whom climbing seems more ‘natural’ (09:23).

• Almeida’s Impressive Climb:

  • “He looked good…today was a test for Almeida” (24:39).
  • Both praise Almeida for a comeback after being “undercooked,” now showing as a real contender (24:32).

• Visma’s Race Tactics:

  • The team rode conservatively, letting others do the work, never showing signs of stress (04:34, 23:09).
  • Hosts debate if Visma should be more aggressive to gap Almeida before the decisive time trial (24:03).

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5. Team Dynamics and Breakaways

• Team Tactics:
  • UAE’s scatter-shot tactics discussed: Jay Vine up the road, Almeida by himself, Ayuso dropped, Soler dropped:

    “They [UAE] win the stage…first out of the GC group… it just feels like…they’re really spread all over the road...” – Spencer Martin (27:24)

  • Is it better to chase stages or always ride for GC? Johan notes times have changed; nowadays, stage wins build morale and unlock flexibility from key riders (30:21).

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Notable Quotes and Memorable Moments

• “I rarely hear [Ayuso] talk about teammates or about the team. It's always about what he did…if he felt great or didn’t feel great.” – Johan Bruyneel (00:00, reiterated later at 13:14)
• “He [Ayuso] found out today that he’s not in the shape that he has to be to be a contender.” – Johan Bruyneel (08:53)
• “You have to humble oneself in front of the altar of teamwork before you can be a true champion.” – Spencer Martin (20:00)
• “If he wants to go for KOM, [Jay Vine] has to go in the break tomorrow also.” – Johan Bruyneel (37:00)
• “We dissect everything that happens…these guys are kind of on the limit.” – Spencer Martin (26:18)
• “Great reward for [Træen], a recovering testicular cancer patient…to see him now in the lead of a Grand Tour is just, just amazing.” – Johan Bruyneel (05:44)

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Important Segment Timestamps

• 00:00 – Johan on Ayuso’s self-focus (“always about what he did”)
• 00:45–02:22 – Stage 6 summary, break dynamic, Jay Vine’s win
• 03:30 – Visma’s dominance in the group
• 05:44 – Træen’s story: from cancer survivor to race leader
• 07:02 – Ayuso’s Giro exit and preparation issues
• 10:14 – Discussion of UAE’s Grand Tour leadership hierarchy
• 13:14 – Ayuso’s attitude in interviews and lack of team awareness
• 17:06 – Whether Ayuso will work for others or focus on stages
• 18:22 – Ayuso’s lack of Grand Tour finishes since 2023
• 20:00 – “Humble oneself in front of the altar of teamwork” (Spencer on leadership and teamwork)
• 20:31 – Jay Vine’s ideal role and how team situation shapes his freedom
• 23:09 – Visma’s conservative strategy explanation
• 24:03 – Debating the Peril of Small Time Gaps to Almeida
• 27:24–29:43 – UAE’s scattered tactics & breakaway vs GC debate
• 30:21 – Morale boost from early stage wins (“You can ask him anything now…”)
• 33:46–37:19 – Stage 7 betting, route preview, breakaway chances

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Stage 7 Preview & Predictions

• Route overview: Four categorized climbs, finishes on a 12km, 6% climb; potential for inclement weather in the Pyrenees.
• Favorites:
  • Jonas Vingegaard – Bruyneel’s pick as “the best rider in this race, best climber.” (34:45)
  • João Almeida – Spencer’s pick: “He tends to win in sprints out of small groups on summit finishes” (35:21)
  • Giulio Ciccone and Jay Vine named as outside picks.
• Tactics: Both see potential for a breakaway win given the long, gradual climbs and the interest Bahrain might have in controlling the gap to defend the red jersey (33:46).
• Strategic Insights:
  • Jay Vine likely targeting breakaways for KOM as well as stages.
  • For overall contenders, time gains will have to be actively sought on harder summit finishes still remaining in the Vuelta.

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Summary Takeaways

This THEMOVE episode offers an in-depth analysis of Stage 6, including the psychological and tactical aspects influencing Juan Ayuso’s apparent downturn, and situates him within UAE Team Emirates’ crowded roster. The show leverages first-hand athlete and director experience, unfiltered opinions, and a keen eye for the interpersonal and psychological factors at play in professional cycling. The preview for Stage 7 blends race analysis with sportbook odds, underscoring the unpredictability of modern Grand Tour stages. Listeners come away with a granular understanding of team strategies, rider psychology, and what to watch for as the Vuelta unfolds.

Transcript

[Johan Berniel]

What I do see of Juana Jusso is that he always has the mind of a leader. It's about him. I rarely hear him talk about teammates or about the team. It's always about what he did, what he did or what he didn't do. And if he felt great or if he didn't feel great. Still, I don't see him change teams.

[Spencer Martin]

Everybody, welcome back to the move. I'm Spencer Martin. I'm here with Johan Berniel. We are breaking down Stage six of the Valta Espana won by Jay vine from the breakaway, with most of the GC contenders coming in, led by Joa Almeida, with Jonas Finard behind. The big story of the pretty formulaic old school mountain stage. I would say Johan breakaway gets away early. The Visma shows as soon as they turn the TV images on, I know we were wrong because Visma shows no interest in pulling this thing back. The breaks at like 4 minutes with 80k to go. They just keep pulling out time. Visma's not committed. They get into the final two climbs. Ja Vine. I heard someone in the breakaway say, like, yeah, it was obvious Jayvine was going to win the stage from like 10 minutes into the breakaway. Like he was just so much stronger. And he just pretty impressively, formulaically, just drops. Everybody rides away in classic J. Vine style behind. Little Trek takes up the pace. When they get to the final climb, it's like a sprint. Lead out almost into these final two climbs. Little Check takes it up. They're not pacing too hard, but Juana USO gets dropped. Kind of an odd sight, like not suffering, but not staying with the group up front. Julia Ciccone attacks. He's followed by Jonas Finnegaard. There is some scrambling behind. Zwalame is in the third group, looks to be out of it, but in true Almeida fashion, just paces himself back up, then attacks again. Not quite sure I. I agree with that decision, but it worked out and he leads the group in in 10th place. But Johan so really the. The G. The only GC implications were Ben Okana loses a little bit of time. Santa Santiago Petrago loses a little bit of time, couldn't hold pace. And Juan you so lose is a lot of time. Is out of the GC. Also, Torsten Train finishes second on Bahrain, victorious 54 seconds back, goes into the red jersey. Technically that's a GC development. Probably not long term, but what was your takeaway of the day?

[Johan Berniel]

Yeah, takeaway of the day. Spencer, as you said, we were wrong. The break made it. It's true. As soon as you see the live images and you see 10 guys and you see the composition of the breakaway, we knew that there was almost everybody of the breakaway stayed away, by the way, but at least a few guys would stay away. So, yeah, great. Great win by Jay Vine. There was obviously a reason why he lost already so much time in the first few stages. I would say probably on purpose, because he was. Was he 20 minutes down in GC?

[Spencer Martin]

He was very. Yeah. 20 minutes down. Yeah, like aggressively far.

[Johan Berniel]

Yeah. So that was definitely the plan for him to go in breaks worked out well. I mean, the Vuelta is his race, man. I mean, this is where he wins stages and this is a Grand Tour when he wins stages, right? Yeah, he won. He won a few already.

[Spencer Martin]

Third career one was that it's his third career about to win.

[Johan Berniel]

Oh, it's okay.

[Spencer Martin]

Yeah, I think two back to back in 2022, if I'm remembering that. Right.

[Johan Berniel]

Yeah.

[Spencer Martin]

No, there were two and three stages in 2022.

[Johan Berniel]

Yeah. And then he crashed out afterwards. Yes, but. But then, yeah, I mean, with. With the GC guys, Spencer Visma, in my opinion, looked really strong. The strongest team by far. You know, they had. They had Jonas and they had Sepkus, they had Mateo Jorgensen. Ben Tulet was still there for a very long time, so. So, yeah, that was definitely something. And then Jonas looked, I would say, amazing. Never, never under pressure, looked comfortable. I just have one question. Did he really try hard or was he really being conservative? Knowing that the Vuelta is very long, Obviously they knew the last climb. I mean, I think I read a stat somewhere, Spencer, that of this Vuelta peloton, 25% of the peloton actually lives in Andorra. One quarter.

[Spencer Martin]

Wow.

[Johan Berniel]

Wow.

[Spencer Martin]

And that's just in this race.

[Johan Berniel]

Yeah. So they. They know this climb and. Yeah, I mean, I would say for the moment, we don't know much more. We know that Juana Yousso won't win the Vuelta. He. He already hinted at the start or before the start that this was. He needed to wait and see. He didn't have any real reference points. He. He knew he didn't prepare for this Grand Tour like he had prepared for other Grand Tours. He decided late at the request of his team, and today was clear that he doesn't have the form to be in the front of. Of the Vuelta. The question is now, what's going to happen, you know, if he's going to go for stage wins, is he going to go. Is he going to put himself at the service of the team? That would be great to See that of Juana you saw and yeah, I mean, that's about it. And then of course, Thorsten Train taking the lead. Great, great, great reward for him. You know, I mean, we, we've read, I think last year I heard for the first time when he won a stage in the Tour of Switzerland, that he's actually a recovering testicular cancer patient. And so, yeah, to see him now in the lead of a Grand Tour is just, Just amazing.

[Spencer Martin]

Yeah, yeah, it is, it is amazing. And he won, you know, he was like, I guess like a young star on Udox. Went away for a little while, I guess, because he was recovering from cancer. And he wins a stage that I think the Queen stage, the Tour of Switzerland. Last year, kind of quietly racking up these results. And then today actually Jayvine probably attacked too early because Torsten. It was a weird stage where Bruno Amaril and Torsten Train were just going for the lead. Like they probably were not really going for the stage. Jayvon attacks him anyway, rides away. But it's like you probably could have stayed with them and they would have pulled almost all the way up that final climb and then you could have dropped them later. But Jayvine probably doesn't need any notes on, on how to win vault the stages. The only thing about I used to, I found kind of strange. Johan is. So he said I wasn't really prepared, but he leaves the Giro. What, what was the other option for the end of the year? Like, was he just not going to do another Grand Tour? And.

[Johan Berniel]

Yeah, no, I think, I think I, I remember when he abandoned the, the Giro. You know, let's not forget he was the co leader of UAE in the Giro. He crashed on the gravel stage, damaged his knee pretty badly. Could hang in there for a while. And then finally he got dropped. And then after that he got stung by a bee, I seem to remember. And then he abandoned. Right?

[Spencer Martin]

Yeah.

[Johan Berniel]

So things didn't go his way because of certain circumstances. I do remember UAE saying that he was not going to do another Grand Tour, that that's their policy to not have these young riders do two Grand Tours. So I don't know. And I think actually that's the truth because I did find out that the team that was preparing for the Vuelta, plus the young riders who were preparing for the Tour de la Verniere, which is going on right now, they were all on a training camp in Andorra on the top. I think it's Puerto Den Valera. It's like 2,300, 2,400 meters altitude. They were there. And there was one rider who was not there, was Juana Yuso. He was training at home in on the Costa Blanca. So he did. He hasn't joined the training camp of the team, so I think it was kind of a wait and see how I feel. He was not part of the plan. And so it was a late decision. He did say at the beginning of the Vuelta, okay, I don't know. I don't know how I am. But then yesterday after the team time trial, he looked pretty upbeat yesterday. I mean, I think in the team time trial, he felt great. You know, he was probably the strongest guy of the team in the final. And so, yeah, I think it's really true that he didn't know what to expect. Hasn't done any, you know, of course he done. He's done training in the mountains, but not proper altitude training, as everybody does right now. So. And then after the stage, he said, yeah, you know, I mean, you guys have been talking it up, but I've said from the beginning that I didn't know how he was. And he found out today that he's not in the shape that he has to be to be a contender.

[Spencer Martin]

Yeah, he is kind of. I think Rimco Evanopole is like this, and I don't fully understand why, but he's a rider where time trialing comes first, comes before his climbing fitness. Like, remember two of Roman D 2023 wins the TT, he's first overall GC, they go to tie in 2000 the next day, and he's like off the back, you know, and you'd think, like, well, how could you be that good in the TT and not in climbing? But it feels like for him and Remco, like, they have to be a top, top, top, top fitness to be climbing with the best. And like, someone like Pagacha. Pagacha had a really off summer. There's no way he's. He still shows up to this volta and he's climbing with the best, you know, like, just feels like for some riders, climbing comes easier and for some time, trialing comes easier, even if they're roughly the same size.

[Johan Berniel]

Yeah, that's possible.

[Spencer Martin]

And what's, what's his future here? I kind of worry about him at UAE because. So going forward, it seems like Del Toro is going to need to lead at least one Grand Tour a year. Gotcha is going to lead at least one Grand Tour a year. And Joel Made is probably going to lead one Grand Tour year. So where does that leave Juana? You so at uae.

[Johan Berniel]

I think it leaves him at uae. You know, there's, there's a lot of speculation, especially in Spain, you know, and now I've seen on social media some really, you know, high speculation because first, I don't know, apparently he has changed his profile picture on his social media. So, you know, he's, he was in UAE kit and now he's in the Spanish selection kit. That's his profile picture. So certain people take away that, okay, he wants to leave uae. And you know, there's rumors that, you know, Movistar would be interested. There's, I've seen rumors that little track would make a bid for him. I think he's going to stay at.

[Spencer Martin]

UE and he's going to be like a dumb Asti there.

[Johan Berniel]

Well, no, no, no. I mean this, this, there's a lot of races. There's a lot of races. I think right now should focus on one week tours, which he's great at. I think that right now that's, that needs to be his focus and then he can be co leader at one. You know, I mean he should not be at this moment the leader of UAE in any of the Grand Tours. I think that's just, you know, I do, and I do acknowledge that, you know, as a 19 year old he came into the Vuelta and finished third, you know, but, but that was like, okay, what's happening here? It has not, not been confirmed since and he has shown that he has amazing qualities in one week state races. Tour of Switzerland, Tour of Romandy, Tirreno, Basque Country. I think that should be his focus and it's, it's a great team to be on UAE to be, to be going for those races?

[Spencer Martin]

Yeah. Do you think a guy like that, that gets third in a Grand Tour as a teenager is ever going to be able to say like, I'm, I'm focusing on one week races or he can do it?

[Johan Berniel]

I mean, no, I, I, I'm just saying what I think he should do. I'm not saying, yeah, I'm not saying that. That's in probably in his mind, you know, and even before he turned pro, Juana Juso has the mind of a champion, of a winner. You can actually also see it in his interviews, even today, for example, you know, I was surprised to see that after the finish, of course, the Spanish press gets on him and he's there, calm. You know, he puts his jacket on and he says, yeah, you know, and I told you guys that I didn't know if I was ready or not. But then he, they were asking, well, you know, it's a great day for the team. And he says, oh, well, I don't know what happened, who won.

[Spencer Martin]

Yeah.

[Johan Berniel]

So it's clear that this guy, once he's out, he just, for sure, he took his earpiece out and, you know, didn't really care what was going on. I mean, before he got dropped, he knew that there was 10 riders away and that Jay vine was in there, and that Jay vine was a serious candidate to win the stage. So I would think any rider on a team would be, Even if you dropped, you would be interested, you know, to know, okay, let me at least, okay, this is over for me, the gc, but let me at least be up to date of what's happening and let's see if my teammate wins. The guy just was not interested.

[Spencer Martin]

Yeah.

[Johan Berniel]

You know, so, I mean, okay, that's just me thinking you could also think, I mean, and it in. Do his. To his, in his favor. I would say maybe, you know, you're, you're disappointed you're dropped. You just want to make it to the top. And you don't want to hear, you know, car number two yelling all the time because, you know, car number two is behind. And if it's in mountain stages, the distance is not that far. So you keep, you can hear. Right. If it's 8 minutes, 10 minutes in a short line, the distance is not that big. So maybe he just didn't want to hear all the noise. That's also possible. But yeah, I mean, what I do see of Juana Youso is that he always has the mind of a leader. It's about him. I rarely hear him talk about teammates or about the team. It's always about what he did, what he did or what he didn't do, and if he felt great or if he didn't feel great. Still, I, I don't, I don't see him change teams. I, I think that first of all, UAE wouldn't let him go. And, and, and secondly, I mean, apparently there's a huge buyout clause in, in the contracts of these, of all these big talents, ridiculous money. Now, I think if you, if you look at it legally in, in Europe, I, I would have my doubts if those, if those clauses are actually legal, if you would test it in a court of law. But then, you know, we can also ask ourselves the questions right now about Juana Youso. He is this super talent. He came to the forefront when as a 19 year old was, you know, spectacular. He's won A few really nice races. But he abandoned the Tour last year. He landed the Giro this year, and now in the Tour of Spain, he's definitely not going to be on the podium. So I would say his popularity, his is, you know, his trendiness is getting lower. You know, the momentum right now is not inside.

[Spencer Martin]

He's a fourth year professional.

[Johan Berniel]

Yeah. And so that's. I can only see one team. I can only one. Seeing one team really going after him, and that's Movistar because they love. They need him, they need a Spanish star. The other teams, not so sure. I'm not so sure.

[Spencer Martin]

So there's a guy on his team who's probably the best of all time. What do you think that guy would ask when he crossed the line? I think he would ask, how did Jay do? Right. That's concerning to me.

[Johan Berniel]

Yeah. No, listen, the interviews are. The interviews are not great. They're not great for. For him and his popularity. But I actually don't think. I think he doesn't care. I think he doesn't care. Definitely doesn't realize he's just. You focused on. On his. Himself and his career.

[Spencer Martin]

Yeah. Do you think he'll finish this race?

[Johan Berniel]

I think it's. Listen, he has a great opportunity now to, to. Well, first of all, what I know for sure is his first thought will be, okay, GC is gone. What can I now do to win a stage? That's his first goal. In his mind, the team will probably ask something different from him. The team will probably ask, okay, hey, now you're, you know, a domestique. You're great in the mountains, so we need you. Right. He has the opportunity now to show that he can be a great teammate because he's not sick, as far as I know. He's not injured and he showed great form yesterday in the team time trial. So, you know, and I use. So who's at 80% can still be very valuable for UE.

[Spencer Martin]

Yes, I do think it's very important. I. I'd be very excited to see him working for the team. I'm not convinced it's going to happen. Do you know how many, how long it's been since he's finished a Grand Tour?

[Johan Berniel]

Since his second year pro, he finished.

[Spencer Martin]

Fourth, I think two years.

[Johan Berniel]

Yeah.

[Spencer Martin]

Fourth at the V. Yeah. So he hasn't finished a grand tour since 2023, in my opinion. He cannot drop out of this thing because you can't have as a rider at that level. You cannot have years between Tour finishes.

[Johan Berniel]

He doesn't care.

[Spencer Martin]

He's he might not care, but at some point. I mean, at some point, his uae, like, so he's not going to work for people. He's not going to contest the win. I mean, they love him there, so I guess they don't care. But he's making a lot of money. But. But I guess I have question on the stage win. So he gets dropped from a group that's tapping out of pace. So can he win a stage or was he sitting? Like, what happened there? Did he sit up? Because he's like, oh, I don't feel great.

[Johan Berniel]

Well, he didn't look great. He didn't look comfortable. You know, he looked off still, you know, he's. He's a highly talented rider. Yes. He can win a stage, I would say. Yes.

[Spencer Martin]

So from a breakaway.

[Johan Berniel]

From a breakaway, yeah.

[Spencer Martin]

Yeah. I don't know if he can beat Jay vine is the problem. His own team.

[Johan Berniel]

Break.

[Spencer Martin]

That guy's flying.

[Johan Berniel]

Yeah. You know, riding from a breakaway is different. You know, I mean, you don't have the, The. The all of a sudden increase of pace, the lead out of the team of the leader, who then, you know, basically launches their leader. That doesn't happen in breakaways. Yeah.

[Spencer Martin]

I mean, we saw Rimco do this in 2023 at the vault, right?

[Johan Berniel]

Yeah.

[Spencer Martin]

Gets dropped and then he. He's ripping up the breakaways.

[Johan Berniel]

Yeah. I would prefer him to see him in a. In a. In a domestique role, working for the team, actually. That would be great for him and. And for his own development.

[Spencer Martin]

Yep. Yeah, I agree. I agree. I think it's, like, important. I don't know if he thinks it's important. We'll see, though. That's what's going to be interesting is, you know, you have to learn. You have to, like, humble oneself in front of the altar of teamwork before you can be a true champion. And we'll see. We'll see what happens. I. I kind of. This takes me to Jay Vine. Kind of an interesting case here. Like, this guy is so good in breakaways.

[Johan Berniel]

Do you think today, man, he's so strong. Yeah.

[Spencer Martin]

And he's really benefited from staying at UAE because he just gets to focus on stage wins.

[Johan Berniel]

Yeah.

[Spencer Martin]

Do you think if he was on another team, the pressure would be on him to be a leader?

[Johan Berniel]

Yeah, yeah, yeah. I mean, he's a great climber. He's a great climber. He's a good time crawlist. They would definitely demand from him to go for gc. And I'm not saying he can't do it, but you know, Jay vine seems to be one of those riders who really, you know, blossoms in a different kind of pressure. Yeah, it's. It's not easy to, you know, to have the pressure to be the leader for the. Of the gc, to be the leader of the team and having to be. Having to deliver every time they expect you to deliver. There's not many riders who can do that.

[Spencer Martin]

No. And, And I. Yeah, you're right. He's a great time Travis. Great climber on a normal team. On Movie Star, they'd say, all right, you're the leader. I know. And maybe he would do great. Maybe he would win Grand Tours. I agree with you. I think, though, that this is like the perfect role for him and he's benefited being on a stacked team where he doesn't get those opportunities. It's super interesting to see for sure.

[Johan Berniel]

Not great win for him. Great win. And, and then, yeah, I mean, the, the Norwegian guy, Torstens train, he did a great climb at the end. You know, he, he kept.

[Spencer Martin]

He, He.

[Johan Berniel]

I mean, he took a bit of time back on. On Jay Vine. It's normal, but he, he kind of, you know, they, The, the, the peloton with the leaders, they didn't take that much time back, you know.

[Spencer Martin]

Well, yeah, so he's two and two and a half minutes in front of Vindegaard. I'm a bit of a worry wart, but it's basically all climbs left in this race. Are they sure they're going to get this back from them? They must be.

[Johan Berniel]

Oh, Spencer. 1,000%. 1,000%. 10,000%.

[Spencer Martin]

Actually, I would have. It obviously makes no sense, but if j. I would love for Jay vine to have Torsten's lead and then get to see Vindergaard try to take two and a half minutes on Jay Vine. That'd be kind of fun to watch, but that was one question.

[Johan Berniel]

That would also happen 1,000%, by the way.

[Spencer Martin]

Well, I mean, you start to see the love. This is very unscientific, but you, you would. In that case, like we like with Primos last year chasing down Ben o', Connor, you just start to see a class difference between, like, the winners and the rest. Even though they're quite talented.

[Johan Berniel]

Yeah, for sure.

[Spencer Martin]

So Visma's been super aggressive through the first part of the race. I would say overly aggressive to the point of reckless. They get to the first summit finish and they're really conservative. Like, why, what happened there?

[Johan Berniel]

I mean, conservative. I mean, they, They. I think they just set a pace. They knew Perfectly what was going to happen. They, they, they kind of, they could, everybody could feel that little track was leading it out and the Chicono would attack. So why would you, you know, not take advantage of that? I mean, basically little track was doing the job for, for Visma. And then, you know, once, once Chicone attacked the, the groups blew up and then the strongest guys were there and Jonas still had two riders there. So I think, I think they, Visma wrote perfectly. They didn't have to do anything else.

[Spencer Martin]

Well, they do. Yeah. Well, they do have to start taking time on Jamal made at a certain point. So.

[Johan Berniel]

But they're in front right now.

[Spencer Martin]

Well, they're in front, but they're going in. Would you feel comfortable with an eight second lead on Alameda going into a time trial at the end of the race?

[Johan Berniel]

Yeah.

[Spencer Martin]

So in theory they do need to take time.

[Johan Berniel]

Yeah, they do need to take time. But, but they're gonna, I mean today was not, not, it was a hard stage, but there's, there's finished, you know, mountain finishes that are extremely hard. I mean, Angliru.

[Spencer Martin]

So is the narrative that Almeida's undercooked dead? Because if that was actually true and they've tried to press their advantage today.

[Johan Berniel]

I still think that Almeida would improve. And, and let's also. Today was a great climb for Almeida. It was tempo.

[Spencer Martin]

It was, yeah.

[Johan Berniel]

Hard, but not super steep. You know, it was an Almeida climb. But he looked good. He looked good. I have to say. He looked, I think today was a test for Almeida. You know, he could have been found out if he, if he wasn't really in, in great shape. But he wrote great. I, I mean Almeida looks strong today.

[Spencer Martin]

Yeah, I am maybe overly since. I just think if you think you have an advantage on someone like Joel Meta, you have to press it. Because if you wait and he gets better, like remember 2020 tour, it was like same thing. It's like really conservative, really conservative. Oh, Pagacha is riding off the front. He's getting 40 seconds. That doesn't matter. And then it's like, well, actually matter quite a lot. Maybe we should have pressed it when we had the chance. Also after the stage final climb, people are saying, oh, easy climb, easy climb. 10, 10K long.

[Johan Berniel]

Not an easy 7%. I told you yesterday of, and, and, and you know, I did some, we did, I did some research on this climb and you know, I, I, I remember it myself. It's 32 years ago, but I remember it as I was, it's, it's not an easy climb and yeah, there was no big differences. But yeah. Let's ask the riders in the V if it was an easy climb. You're not going to find many who say, ah, it was easy.

[Spencer Martin]

No, it's like I would invite people to go ride that. That type of climb. After listening to this. I mean, I did. I did that right after the stage at. I try to keep the heart rate high, like 160 and it can.

[Johan Berniel]

What did you do? What kind of climb?

[Spencer Martin]

It was like 8k long at 7% about.

[Johan Berniel]

That's pretty hard.

[Spencer Martin]

You can start to see how bad decisions get made and everything looks like it makes sense on camera. And then you're like, I'm hurting quite a bit here. And like, I'm just doing what I can. So we dissect everything that happens. Yeah, like, well, these guys are kind of on the limit. We should just say Ciccone looked really good. The attack was interesting. I mean, I guess I like to see it from him. He's being aggressive.

[Johan Berniel]

Right.

[Spencer Martin]

That's what we didn't like at the Tour, that.

[Johan Berniel]

No, he looks good. You know, if you see him climb like today, the attack only Jonas could follow. Then they get caught back, stays in there without any problem. Finishes. I think third. No. Of the group was Almeida and. And Jonas and then Chone.

[Spencer Martin]

Yes. So who look like the three strongest GC riders right now.

[Johan Berniel]

Yeah. Yeah.

[Spencer Martin]

And we should say too, Visma's conservativeness. I was going to defend them for a second after watching that finish. Not clear to me that if they pull that back, they win that stage because that was a fast finish. Almade is a fast guy. Chacon is a fast guy.

[Johan Berniel]

Yeah, it's the, the, the, the work that they had to put in is too much compared to the risk. And, and they're not here to win stages. They're here to win the overall. Of course, if they can win a stage along the way, they will do it, but it was not worth the effort.

[Spencer Martin]

Yeah, it's a very good chance. You just pull a rival into a stage. Time bonuses, which isn't a good idea. Yeah. Little check, Chicone. I'm interested to see where that goes. Chicane has never finished top 10 in a grand Tour. Today he looked. If you just watched today, you didn't know anything about the guy. You'd say he's one of the strongest people in the race. He's really good. Before we move on to the preview, one question I have for you. So UAE's up the road with Jayvine. They have a maid in the group. Ayuso's dropped Mark Solaire gets kind of dropped. Almeida's by himself, chasing Vindegaard and Chacone. Is that it? Just to me, I mean, they win the stage. They. They. They first out of the GC group, so all's fine in the end. It just feels like, well, they're really spread all over the road. Here was a thought I had at the time. And like, is that a consideration when you're thinking about going for stage wins versus keeping people back in the. In the GC group?

[Johan Berniel]

No, I think, you know, I mean, more or less everybody was on their own except. Except Jonas.

[Spencer Martin]

Two teammates right next to him.

[Johan Berniel]

Yeah, yeah. You know, Chicono was on his own. Egg on. Bernal was on his own. I guess.

[Spencer Martin]

I guess Chicone was only on his own because he had his team wind up the pace and then attacked them.

[Johan Berniel]

And then Jay Henley was on his own for a while, then got. Then had. What's his name, the. The Italian kid come back. Yeah. At that point, it's. It's really a, A fight amongst. Amongst the favorites. It. Of course it would. It would be. But even if. Even for example, even if. Okay, normally, if Ayuso is in great shape, he would have been there also. Right then the question. The question would have been if, if he's needed, will he do the job for. He did the job for Almeida. But a guy like Mark Solaire, for example, who was on equal time before the start of, you know, he, He. If he would be there, he would be hanging on for dear life. Wouldn't be able to do anything anyway.

[Spencer Martin]

Yeah.

[Johan Berniel]

So now I didn't really read too much into that, to be honest.

[Spencer Martin]

If you were directing, when you were directing Postal or Discovery, did you. Would you have sent a writer up to get a stage win on a stage like today?

[Johan Berniel]

You can't compare, Spencer, these times. You can't compare these times. We. We were very. We were very famous for, you know, not going in breakaways and the whole team around the leader. That was our. Our formula that worked the best. Um, but that, you know, times have changed. You can't compare.

[Spencer Martin]

Well, in the.

[Johan Berniel]

I don't know if I, if today I would be directing. I would probably try to get stage wins too, because let's not forget, you know, like now Jay vine has his stage win. You can ask him anything now in the rest.

[Spencer Martin]

For the rest.

[Johan Berniel]

For the rest of this Vuelta.

[Spencer Martin]

That's a good point. I mean, think about B. Smith at Tour. They go for that stage win early, ended up being Quite important. I mean they get the one at the end, I guess, which is amazing. But yeah, it just gives you a little bit of insurance and you say yeah, then you can ask anything of that person. And Jay vine will be without Meta.

[Johan Berniel]

So. Yeah, that's why you make. UAE has two stagements now already with the team time trial. So you know, the atmosphere must be amazing.

[Spencer Martin]

Yeah, yeah. That is kind of the funny thing about this Valta is UAE has won back to back stages. One of their leaders is out of the GC and everyone is thinking that they're the underdogs and they're working and.

[Johan Berniel]

And they have the king of the mountains.

[Spencer Martin]

Yeah. Who's with the guy who's won that before at this point.

[Johan Berniel]

Yeah.

[Spencer Martin]

Kind of interesting. But anything else on the stage before we move on?

[Johan Berniel]

No, I think that's, that's about it. I think we covered everything, you know, I mean as you said, o' Connor dropped a bit. I don't see him really as. As, you know, it's hard to. Hard to imagine he's going to repeat his performance of last year and then Butrago lost a bit. But I think we can't put B in the same league as for example Vingegaard, Almeida, Chicone, Gal Bernal and those.

[Spencer Martin]

The interesting thing about that Bugo is he was the one like doing a lot of the chasing of Vinegard and Chicone and then pays for it which I guess they still have TB up there. So if you're, if you're really focused on the Bob Rain victorious GC situation, they're.

[Johan Berniel]

They've.

[Spencer Martin]

They're in a great spot. They got trained in the leaders jersey, they got tibery. Not losing time but let's take a quick break and then predict tomorrow's stage. All right, Johan, Stage seven. We leave Andorra. We're. I don't think we've mentioned that yet. We finished in Andorra, your former home. No, we did say that earlier. Now we start in Andorra. Andorra city. We leave, go further into the Pyrenees. There are 1, 2, 3, 4 categorized climbs. Finishes on a first Cat 12K long 6% average climb. There's bonus seconds on the second at the top of the second to last climb. I'll list off the favorites and then we will discuss it. Also we should say it was quite rainy early. It was bad weather and rainy early in the stage today. I've not checked the forecast for tomorrow, but these part of the Pyrenees it can be quite stormy so I wouldn't be shocked if it's stormy. Again, but the favorite, heavy Favorite, Jonas Finnegard. Plus 135. Giulio Ciccone. Plus 10 plus 1000. Joel. I made a plus 1000. J Vine plus 1400. Egan Bernal. Plus 2500. Mark Solaire. Plus 2500. Chris Harper. Plus 3300. It goes on and on and on. We'll call him out when we need to. One quick note. I. So we didn't think it was going to be breakaway. I wake up this morning and say, oh, this is going to be breakaway. I bet on J vine live on BetMGM. This is something you can explore. Like if a stage like this, you think, oh, it's too risky. You can always wait and try to bet on it live. And also if you do want to bet, make sure you go to nxt bets.com bet outcomes because you'll get the best price and you'll see where you can do it where you live. But Johan, who do you think is going to win the stage? And do you think it's breakaway or peloton?

[Johan Berniel]

It's difficult, it's difficult to predict the rider from a breakaway. Spencer. I actually think there is a decent chance for a breakaway, especially because of this climb. Porto Canto. I still remember that climb myself. I didn't like it at all. It's. It's 25 kilometer climb, four and a half percent only, average. But it's ideal for big groups to go away. It's going to be mayhem on that climb. It always is. The thing tomorrow is that if Train wants to keep the leaders jersey, which I think he wants to, then Bahrain cannot let a group go too far away, at least you know, with guys that are still in contention. So I'm just gonna play it safe and, and go for Jonas Swinger to win tomorrow. He's the heavy favorite in my opinion. He is the best rider in this race. He is the best climber in this race. So I'm gonna go for him at 125.

[Spencer Martin]

All right. Yeah, we'll see if Visma is the appetite. I'm gonna go discount Jonas. I mean, I kind of, I just agree with your premise. I'm gonna go someone at a better price. Joel made a plus 1000. It's funny to me that now every, it's like the market is just like, well, Jonas is a, he's a summit finish monster. This guy out sprints. Everybody's on, on summit finishes. That's not really his profile as a writer. Like he tends to drop people and that's how he wins. I don't think tomorrow is a drop people climb. I think people are going to have to sprint out of a small group. So I'm going to go with, I think Almeida looks pretty quick to me at the moment.

[Johan Berniel]

Yeah, well, it's, it's finished on Sarlair. It's not a super difficult climb, but there is, I remember a part of about 2 kilometers, which, with steeper gradients, I would say between 8, 9, 10%. So he could get away there. If he's gonna be able to drop Almeida. That's, that's, I mean, I'm talking about Jonas, right? Yeah, that's a question. My second choice is going to be the same kind of style rider that you just chose. So Spencer Julu Chicone plus 1000. I think he looked great today. He can definitely win in a sprint and he's not going to be easy to be, to be dropped. So he's my second choice at plus 1,000.

[Spencer Martin]

I, I don't, I don't hate that. I, I like that. I'm gonna go. This is very, very unoriginal. I'm gonna go Jay Vine. Because today, from the break, look, from the break, plus 1400.

[Johan Berniel]

God.

[Spencer Martin]

Even if Jay Vines in the GC group, if you look at the profile of his climb, there is a point that it's like 10%, then a descent, then a climb back up to the finish. Like you could imagine, remember, like time and Ironsman, something like that at the Tour where you have these guys attacking out of the GC group and they're kind of let go. But man, if Fine gets in the breakaway, it is actually hard to see anyone beating him at the moment because he's just so much better than any of the breakaway riders on these climbs.

[Johan Berniel]

Now today he was outstanding compared to everybody else in that breakaway.

[Spencer Martin]

And he's still the beauty of vine's strategy. He's 18 minutes back, 19 minutes back, essentially, which tells you he's probably pre planned this and that's why he lost an aggressive amount of time.

[Johan Berniel]

Spencer, I think, you know, if he wants personally to make it a serious goal, personal goal to win the kom, he kind of has to go in the break tomorrow also.

[Spencer Martin]

Yeah, four points. And so I think, I think he's thought about this. It's why he's lost so much time, more than other stage hunters. I'm going to go vine at plus 1400.

[Johan Berniel]

Okay, good.

[Spencer Martin]

All right, well, well, we'll see how it is. It's heating up. It's slowly heating up. Johan, it's not so. So boring or slow boil would be the diplomatic way of saying that. But I'm excited to see how this plays out.

[Johan Berniel]

Okay, Spencer, speak tomorrow.

[Spencer Martin]

All right, we'll talk tomorrow.

[Johan Berniel]

Bye.