THEMOVE: Who Will Win the Vuelta a España? | OŪTCOMES
Host: Lance Armstrong
Panelists: Spencer Martin, Johan Bruyneel
Date: August 21, 2025
Overview
In this episode, THEMOVE's OŪTCOMES panel (Spencer Martin and Johan Bruyneel) preview the 2025 Vuelta a España. The team delivers in-depth analysis of the course, the contenders, and the unique challenges of the season’s final Grand Tour. Offering sharp betting insights and nuanced takes, they dissect the terrain, team strategies, and rider form—debating if Jonas Vingegaard is unbeatable, who could surprise, and why the Vuelta is distinct from the Tour and Giro.
Key Discussion Points and Insights
Vuelta a España Course Analysis [03:08-04:10]
- Course Breakdown:
- Starts in Torino, Italy, finishes in Madrid.
- 21 stages: one of the toughest in years.
- Features:
- 10 summit finishes + 1 difficult uphill finish.
- Two time trials (27km ITT and 24km TTT).
- Only three sprint stages.
- 11 stages have over 3,000m of climbing—3 with over 4,000m.
- 6 stages have climbs over 10km; 9 summit finishes are over 8km.
- Route keeps to the mountainous, cooler, and possibly rainy northern coast—“mountain-heavy” and “extremely hard.”
- Implication:
- The route favors the best climbers and those with the deepest endurance late in the season.
“This is extremely hard climb, heavy course... 11 summit finishes, which is a lot—like, a lot.”
—Spencer Martin [03:31]
Who Is the Vuelta Favorite? And Why?
Odds and Betting Context:
- Top picks based on betting odds:
- Jonas Vingegaard (-250)
- Joao Almeida (+550)
- Juan Ayuso (+550)
- Other outside contenders: Ciccone, Tiberi, Bernal, Ben O’Connor, Jai Hindley, Felix Gall, Matteo Jorgenson.
Panel’s Take:
- Jonas Vingegaard
- Clear favorite given route and team (Visma-Lease a Bike).
- Questions around his pre-race illness and recovery from the Tour de France.
- Powerful support crew: “Tour de France team, strong.”
- Joao Almeida
- Strong season, recently recovered from a Tour crash.
- Mental and physical freshness is a potential advantage over rivals coming off the Tour.
- Identified as the only rider “who could eventually match Jonas.”
- Juan Ayuso
- Highly talented, but uncertain form and less-than-ideal preparation.
- Faces pressure to prove himself within UAE against Almeida.
- Wildcard Factors:
- History in the Vuelta of upsets and unpredictable outcomes, especially if breakaways succeed early (as with Sep Kuss in 2023).
“Let’s start with the fact that it’s the Vuelta Espana... the rematch or, you know, somebody who has not gotten what they thought they would get, then it’s kind of the second opportunity.”
—Johan Bruyneel [04:13]
Debate: Vingegaard vs. Almeida
-
Johan’s Pick: Jonas Vingegaard for the win.
- “Normally quality wise he’s the best rider. I mean, he’s the second best rider in the world in terms of stage races, especially on climbs.” [04:48]
- Notes Vingegaard’s illness rumors but says “he has to win this.”
-
Spencer’s Pick: Joao Almeida.
- “I’m gonna pick this as Almeida’s breakout race... I think he recovered from [his Tour crash] pretty well.” [08:10]
- Cites Almeida’s form, stage race wins, and fresh preparation as key.
- Observes that Almeida beat Jonas Vingegaard in summit finishes earlier in the year. [09:41]
-
Agreement: Almeida is “the guy who could eventually match Jonas,” but Vingegaard has the edge if he’s healthy.
“Eventually these younger guys will start to put pressure on the established stars; Jonas Vingegaard being one of them.”
—Spencer Martin [08:51]
“Without the crash in the Tour, Almeida was the third strongest stage racer of this peloton, at least this season.”
—Johan Bruyneel [09:58]
Freshness and Recovery: A Deciding Factor
Discussion highlights the short recovery window after the Tour and the mental and physical toll of Grand Tours.
- Almeida’s edge: Skipped the “death march” third week of the Tour, coming in fresher.
- Potential issues for Tour finishers: Riders might struggle with motivation and fatigue.
“One of the things that is super important in the Vuelta is freshness... You never know how somebody’s gonna recover from the Tour.”
—Johan Bruyneel [11:07, repeated for emphasis]
Who Rounds Out the Podium? [12:10]
- Contenders:
- Juan Ayuso: “Has the pressure on no matter what.”
- Egan Bernal: Johan’s pick for 3rd, “would love to see him do well,” but not the 2019 version anymore.
- Felix Gall: Spencer’s pick for the podium—fifth at this year’s Tour, best form for Vuelta’s climbing routes.
- Others considered: Ben O’Connor, Jay Hindley, Giulio Ciccone, Tiberi, Pitcock (but “never seen Pittcock at podium level” for a three-week race).
“I’m gonna go for Egan Bernal for the third spot.”
—Johan Bruyneel [13:21]
“I’m gonna go Gall for the podium at plus 800.”
—Spencer Martin [16:09]
Young Rider Competition (White Jersey) [19:00]
- Favorites:
- Juan Ayuso (+100): Panel’s consensus pick due to pure talent.
- Antonio Tiberi (+300): Second favorite.
- Outsider wish: Matthew Riccitello (+1200)—would be “amazing.”
- Patterns:
- Vuelta young rider winners often become Tour de France stars (Froome, Pogacar).
“The Vuelta is one of those races where sometimes you see a guy grow in the race. He’s definitely going to be motivated.”
—Johan Bruyneel [19:15]
“Young rider at the Vuelta is actually quite important and can be very predictive of who’s going to be a star in the future.”
—Spencer Martin [24:08]
Points (Green Jersey) and Other Classifications [24:40]
- Points Classification:
- Mads Pedersen (–182): Overwhelming favorite due to form and versatility.
- Jasper Philipsen (+350): Main rival.
- Note: Points system at the Vuelta may allow GC riders to compete but the emphasis is still on punchy, durable sprinters.
“Pedersen, you know, he’s such… a complete rider. There’s many stages where he can score points where the sprinters won’t score points.”
—Johan Bruyneel [25:02]
- Mountains (Polka Dot Jersey):
- “Stay away from.” The course may favor overall contenders for mountains points.
- Noted that “11 uphill finishes” could lead to the GC leader also winning mountains.
“It would seem hard, yeah, to not win the mountains classification if you’re in the overall.”
—Spencer Martin [28:50]
- Team Classification:
- Expected to be between UAE Team Emirates (+130) and Visma-Lease a Bike (+275). “Rest just comes down to having depth; teams don’t typically target this classification.”
- Dysfunctional teams (with multiple GC ambitions) might actually help in this ranking.
Stage 1 (Torino) Preview & Picks [32:44]
- Stage Type:
- Flat, straightforward finish with several roundabouts; pure sprinter’s stage. Only three realistic opportunities for sprinters in this entire Vuelta.
- Favorites:
- Jasper Philipsen (+110): Heavy favorite, backed by a full leadout train. Johan: “This is a team with one mission... the sprints for Philipsen.” [32:54]
- Mads Pedersen (+450): Alternative pick in case of chaos; in hot form but rumored to be distracted.
- Wildcards: Casper van Uden, Ethan Vernon—deemed long shots due to inconsistent form or unclear team roles.
- Strategy:
- Both panelists agree: “If Philipsen has any problems, I think Pedersen probably wins.” [35:22]
Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments
-
“It’s especially mental. At the end of the season, there’s many, many riders who don’t want to be there, and they have to be there.”
—Johan Bruyneel on the Vuelta’s challenge [22:51] -
“The longer I have to reflect on that Tour, [Vingegaard] had a decent third week. He matched Pogacar, but… was he stronger than the year before?”
—Spencer Martin, challenging the consensus [07:42] -
“Hats off to Jonas Vingegaard. He focused everything on the Tour, rode a great race, wasn’t able to win, and now to be able to recharge the batteries and come back... that’s quite something.”
—Johan Bruyneel [37:38] -
“We like to see an issue, you know, we like to make it an issue. But is there really an issue? I’m not sure. It’s usually the road that decides.”
—Johan on media creating drama between Almeida and Ayuso [20:07]
Timestamps for Key Segments
- Course breakdown & odds: 03:08–06:00
- Vingegaard & Almeida analysis: 06:25–11:44
- Podium and outsider picks: 12:27–16:20
- Young rider classification: 19:09–24:11
- Points & mountains jerseys/team classification: 24:58–29:17
- Stage 1 preview & tips: 32:44–36:55
- Closing reflections on the Vuelta: 37:33–37:53
Summary Table: Panel Picks
| Category | Johan's Pick | Spencer's Pick | |-------------------|---------------------|-----------------------| | Overall Winner | Jonas Vingegaard | Joao Almeida | | Podium | Egan Bernal | Felix Gall | | Young Rider | Juan Ayuso | Juan Ayuso | | Points | Mads Pedersen | Mads Pedersen | | Stage 1 Winner | Jasper Philipsen | Mads Pedersen |
Overall Tone & Style
The episode is packed with expertise, friendly debate, and dry humor—typical for THEMOVE. Both hosts balance rigorous statistical/betting analysis with “inside the peloton” perspective on rider psychology and the peculiar stresses of the Vuelta. Their dynamic rewards insiders but remains accessible for less-initiated fans.
For the daily stage breakdowns and more in-depth race action, catch the duo throughout the Vuelta a España on THEMOVE.