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Who Will Win the Vuelta a España? | OŪTCOMES
00:37:45
Johan Bruyneel and Spencer Martin break down the course, contenders, and likely outcomes for both the overall classification of the Vuelta a España and its opening stage, which kicks off this Saturday. They discuss what to expect in the likely GC...
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- [00:00]
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- [00:29]
Johan Berniel
The thing that is super important in the Vuelta is, is freshness.
- [00:33]
Spencer Martin
Yeah.
- [00:34]
Johan Berniel
And you know, it's, it's, we never know how somebody's going to recover from the Tour. Between the Tour and the V, that is not that much time. It's, you know, physical recovery, mental recovery. Almeida was in great shape. He had the crash. You know, it depends how fast he could train again, but I suspect it was pretty, pretty early. He could train again and is mentally and physically fresh. That's a huge advantage.
- [01:03]
Spencer Martin
Hi, I'm Spencer Martin along with Johan Bruneil and this is Outcomes. Outcomes is for informational entertainment purposes only. Nothing in this podcast should be considered financial advice. Please gamble responsibly and if you or someone you know has a gambling problem, seek help from a professional resource. Hosts and guests may have financial interest in the bets discussed. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Everybody. Welcome back to Outcomes. I'm Spencer Martin. I'm here with Johan Berniel. We are predicting the 21 stage Vuelta Espana, which starts this Saturday in Torino, Italy, confusingly and runs through September 14th. Infinite will finish in Madrid. It's the third Grand Tour of the season. We will also predict the opening stage in Torino on Saturday and then after that we will switch to the Move plus and we we will have a daily stage breakdown show with our outcomes predictions at the end of that show every day. So if you you're listening, watching, just come back to this feed. You'll see us every day of this race. Johan I, I'll just give a quick overview of the course and then I'll list the odds about who the favorites are to win and then we win the overall and we'll predict it and then we'll go to stage one after that. But as we said 21 stages. The big highlights are this is extremely hard climb, heavy course. For example, there are 11 summit finishes, which is a lot like a lot there are two as I've no. There's 10 summit finishes, one like difficult uphill finish, one less difficult uphill finish on a hilly stage. Only three stages that I've classified as a sprint stage, two time trials, one 27 kilometer individual time trial, one 24 kilometer long team time trial. We're getting that back. 11 stages over 3,000 meters of climbing, three stages over 4,000 meters of climbing, six stages with climbs over 10k in length and nine summit finishes over eight kilometers in length and two stages over 200 kilometers. It stays after it leaves Piedmont in Italy, it goes into France and then they go into Spain for the first time trial on stage five. And then we're just hugging that northern coast. You know this. The most southern it gets is your hometown Madrid. But expect mountainous cool to chilly, perhaps even rainy weather along that entire northern coast. It's beautiful. Should be pretty exciting racing. I'll list off the favorites for the overall and then we'll guess who's going to win. But Jonas Fergard is the massive favorite. The Tour de France runner up at -250 jalameda + +550 juana uso, his teammate. Plus550 julio chacone. Plus2000 antonio tib + 2500 er bernal. Plus3300 ben o. Connor +4000 jai hindley +4000 felix g. Plus6600 mato jorgensen +6600. It goes on and on. And again we still have our partnership with NextBet. So if you want to get the best deal and the best signup bonus and know where you can bet wherever you live, go to nxtbets.com betoutcomes to find that out. But Johan, how. Who do you see winning this race? I mean, the obvious choice is Vindegaard. The market thinks that, but I'm not totally convinced. This is going to be a cakewalk.
- [04:13]
Johan Berniel
Yeah, it's difficult. I mean, let's start with the fact that it's the Vuelta Espana. So it's the third big stage race of the year when usually it's kind of the, the rematch or, you know, somebody who has not gotten what they got, what they thought they would get, then it's kind of the, the, the second opportunity. I mean, it's difficult to say that Vingegaard has failed, right? I mean, he was still second in the Tour. He was the second strongest rider. And yeah, I mean, I can't. He. He's the big favorite. He has to win this, especially, as you said, 11 uphill finishes mountain heavy. Plus, you know, he has a really strong team. Fisma obviously came here with a lot of ambition. They, they sent Sepkus and Jorgensen and Campenaerts and Kelderman and von Barlein and named them, you know, so yeah, I think Jonas means this. The only thing is I just read actually today a little interview I have. I only saw the title but it said somewhere that he had been in this week leading up to the Vuelta. Never a good sign. We don't know if it's a smoke screen or not, but normally quality wise he's the best rider. I mean he's the second best rider in the world in terms of stage races, especially on climbs. And this Vuelta is in the mountains almost every day. We also been in a situation like this two years ago, right, where Jonas was second strong. I mean actually had he won. He had, he had what? He won the Tour, I guess.
- [05:58]
Spencer Martin
Yeah. So he won the tour in 2023, went to the Vuelta.
- [06:01]
Johan Berniel
Yeah. And then Sepkus won, right? Sepkus won and difficult for me to see an identical scenario and I think Jonas wants to go for this. Sepkus I think is not in the same shape as, as back then, although he did a great Tour de France. But, but yeah, no Jonas finger guard, my favorite to win this.
- [06:28]
Spencer Martin
Yeah. I actually kind of wonder if he regrets giving because let's be honest, he could have, he was flying at that vault. He could have won that Vuelta. He gives away that win or he gives the win, doesn't contest the win against Yakuz and then that's the last major. I mean, I'm stretching the definition of the word major here, but the last Grand Tour, at least that he, he could have won. He has not won a Grand Tour since that year. He won Toreno, he's one Tour of Poland, he's won Algarve and O Grand Camino since then. But it kind of goes to show you, like why you should just take the opportunity when you get it because you don't know when it's going to come again. Because he's rolling up to this Vuelta now. And yes, Sepkus might not be on the form to challenge him, but that UAE team, I mean we should say Jonas's Visma team, incredibly strong, like Tour de France team, strong. Outside of him, they have Axel Zingle, Victor Campenaerts, Mateo Jorgensen, Wilco Ketterman, Supkus, Ben Dulet, Dylan Van Barle, like that's a very strong team. They are ready to go here. But UAE has Juana USO and Schwalameda to the two GC cadets. For them, Iuso didn't look great at San Sebastian, got dropped. I never like to see that at the beginning or a few weeks out of a Grand Tour target. But if there's pressure on Jonas, like, if Jonas has to win this, these guys also have a lot of pressure on them because they are on a team with Tate Pagachar and Isaac Del Toro, and they're fighting for a very limited number of GC leadership slots. And, like, this is kind of it. This is the time to prove that you can take one of those spots. You know, you could imagine losing to Vindegaard, and that's okay, but they almost can't afford to lose to each other, so they're going to be very motivated to do as good as I can. I think Vinegard at minus 250, like, well, he is the favorite. He's probably going to win, but coming out of that Tour, I don't know, I just. The longer I have to reflect on that. He had a decent third week. He matched Pagachar, but I don't know, like, was he stronger than he was the year before after he had the disrupted run in the. The failure to win that stage with Ornsman hanging out there? That still just, like, doesn't sit that right with me. And then I think about Almeida, like, eventually these guys, these younger guys will start to put pressure on the established stars. Jonas Finnegaard being one of them. I'm gonna pick this as well. Ometa's breakout race. I like him. At plus 550. I'm gonna go out on a limb and pick Joaola Mehta to win this race. I'm not gonna pick Juan you. So. Because we've not heard great things about his preparation, but he's another guy. Like, if he's as good as we hear he is, he should at least be in contention for winning this. I'm going to pick Almeida out of those two. I was super impressed with the season up to the Tour when he crashed out. I think he recovered from that pretty well. He went right into training for this race almost. So it's almost worked out as if he's targeting this race all along. I'm going to go, Joao Almeida.
- [09:26]
Johan Berniel
Yeah. I think in terms of quality and, you know, being the big engines we're looking for, I think Almeida is the guy who could eventually match Jonas. I don't see anybody else who can even come close.
- [09:40]
Spencer Martin
The horsepower. Right.
- [09:41]
Johan Berniel
It's a long time ago. It Seems a long time ago, but there is one rider who beat Jonas Vingegaard in two uphill finishes before the Tour. One in Algarve and one in Paris, and that's Joel Almeida. Yeah. Yeah. It's a long time ago, you could say, okay, it's irrelevant. But he did beat Jonas, and Jonas was going for it back then. It was the beginning of the season. So I think, you know, we said it all along. I mean, without. Without the crash in the Tour, that Almeida was the third strongest stage racer of this peloton, at least this season.
- [10:23]
Spencer Martin
Yeah.
- [10:25]
Johan Berniel
He already showed before the crash that he was going to be the key guy for. For that he finally, you know, that they didn't need him. But, you know, at least since his crash, he could focus on himself and his own ambitions, his own goals. And this is a great opportunity for. For Joe Almeida. Yeah, I like that pick, Spencer. It's not bad. Especially. What is it? Plus 550.
- [10:49]
Spencer Martin
Plus 550 he's won. That's good. 3 World Tour stage races this year. Like, Jonas Vinegaard hasn't won a World Tour stage race since 2024. So, you know, for just picking recent form, it's not crazy. And as you said, like, he was doing well, I also would love. I think I started the season by saying, yeah.
- [11:08]
Johan Berniel
And also, Spencer, you know, one of the things that is super important in the Vuelta is freshness.
- [11:13]
Spencer Martin
Yeah.
- [11:14]
Johan Berniel
And, you know, it's. It's. We never know how somebody's gonna recover from the Tour. Between the Tour and the Vuelta, there's not that much time. It's, you know, physical recovery, mental recovery. Almeida was in great shape. He had the crash. You know, it depends how. How fast he could train again, but I suspect it was pretty. Pretty early. He could train again, and he's mentally and physically fresh. That's a huge advantage.
- [11:44]
Spencer Martin
Yeah. I mean, think of that third week of the Tour, how waxed everybody looked like, even Pagachar looked miserable, and Almeida missed all of that. So, you know, we'll see. It's unclear to me if, like, completing a Tour that hard and then rolling up to the VTA is the best preparation you could do, or if specifically preparing for it is better. I'm just going to bet that preparing for it is better than the death march that was the Tour. I also would love Almeida to prove me wrong, because ever since I said he can't win, he's just been doing nothing but winning. So I want to see this streak continue to go in terms of who can challenge them. Who do you think could finish on the podium here behind them? Because someone will finish third?
- [12:27]
Johan Berniel
Yeah, of course. Yeah. I mean, you know, we have Ayuso, we have Jay Hindley, we have Ben o', Connor, Egon Bernal, Felix Gal, who just finished fifth in the Tour. You know, Pitcock. I don't think so. I mean, he's. Yeah, I think because goal is being a top 10 and stage wins, but, you know, we have never seen Pitcock compete at the podium level. It's. You know, I personally think that he has the potential to do it, but he hasn't prepared specifically his season for Grand Tour. For Grand Tour. So I'm going to go with. I mean, this. Okay. There's Ben o', Connor, who's been second at the Vuelta. There's Jay Hindley, who won Giro and was second Giro. I'm. I mean, it's. I. I don't know if I'm saying this because that's the way I think it will go, or it's just because I have always been a fan of him, and I would love to see him do well. I'm gonna go for Egon Bernal for the third spot.
- [13:32]
Spencer Martin
He's plus 800 for the podium.
- [13:34]
Johan Berniel
I think, you know, he's a solid rider. He's definitely not the Egon Bernal anymore that we. We saw coming onto the scene. I mean, maybe he is numbers wise, but he probably is better.
- [13:47]
Spencer Martin
He probably might be a little bit better, actually.
- [13:49]
Johan Berniel
No, but unfortunately, you know, he won the tour in 2019. Unfortunately, that if you produce those numbers, you're not. You're not there anymore. But, yeah, I'm gonna go egg Bernal for. For the podium.
- [14:04]
Spencer Martin
I. Well, okay, so I. I don't agree with you. I think Bernal. I worry because Bernal was losing time in the Giro on the climbs, and then this is like nothing but climbs. So that has me concerned. But we're going through the podium contenders here, and it gets dicier than you think, because, like, Iuso would be the obvious choice. But I don't. We. We've not. I don't know. I don't feel great about that situation. Like, we was potentially not at a team camp prior to this. I like to hear people are at home, actually.
- [14:37]
Johan Berniel
He actually said in an interview that this is the first time he does a Grand Tour without having specifically prepared for it, which, you know, sometimes may turn out to be the right way because you start without any big expectations. Not much pressure, but I think a rider like. Are you. So has the pressure on no matter what, he puts pressure on himself. Plus it's Tour of Spain. Every, all the, you know, the Spanish media expects him to do well. So I think we should take him to account for this for the podium. Although we haven't seen anything that could indicate that he's on that level right now. Yeah.
- [15:17]
Spencer Martin
And so if you assume he's not on the level, then it starts to get dicey fast because Julia Chacona is the next favorite. Looks enticing, right? He just won San Sebastian. Guy's flying. Guy looked great at this year. Here's the issue with Chicone. He's never topped 10 a grand tour. He's never finished on a, on a podium at the one of the top seven one week stage races. He's 30 years old, potentially. He's not a stage racer. We'll never know how he would have finished it this year. Zero. I think maybe he would have struggled on the, on the Finestra, but we don't know. So if you don't feel super confident that you go to Tibery. Well, is he a good enough climber? I don't know. And then you, Bernal? Well, he's a, he's pretty consistent actually. So maybe he's not a terrible pick. Ben o', Connor, how's he going to be? That's a lot of consistency needed. Jai Henley. We don't know how he is. I think this all takes me to Felix Gaul +800. He just finished fifth at the Tour, unless I'm mistaken.
- [16:09]
Johan Berniel
Yeah.
- [16:10]
Spencer Martin
And this race is much better for him than the Tour was. This is actually just Felix Gall's best terrain served up over and over again. So I'm gonna go golf for the podium at plus 800.
- [16:20]
Johan Berniel
Okay. Yeah, with the confidence. I mean, obviously the fifth place for him at the Tour was a huge result. And you know, he's shown in some of the mountain stages that he was able to be, you know, the best of the rest, you know, was able to attack a few times. So, you know, does he still have his form from the Tour de France? That's another question. But yeah, I mean you have to, we have to dig into account Felix Gal. He's one of the guys.
- [16:52]
Spencer Martin
Well, let's take a quick ad break and then I have two more GC questions for you and then we'll get into the stage. Everybody. This episode is brought to you by Hims. No one really plans for hair loss, but through Hims you can take the next step with confidence. Hims gives you 100% online access to personalized Prescription treatments designed to stop hair loss and rego hair in as little as three to six months. We're talking doctor trusted, clinically proven ingredients like finasteride and minoxidil. The real stuff that works. You don't need another hat. You need a plan. And with hims, that plan is simple, convenient, and tailored directly for you. No waiting rooms, no hoops, no hidden fees. Just expert care delivered right to your door. Whether it's choose choose oral meds, sprays or serums, HIMS has treatments that fit your lifestyle. And when you're watching this Walter, you're going to see mops on angelameda. Juana, you. So you're going to need a confidence boost, and nobody gives you that like hims. Think of hims as your digital front door to feeling like yourself again. Get started today, and by fall, you could be seeing a fuller head of hair. For simple online access to personalized and affordable care for hair loss, ED, weight loss and more, visit hims.com the Move. That's hims h I s.com the Move for your free online visit. Individual results may vary based on studies of topical and oral topical and oral minoxidine finasteride. Prescription required. See website for full details, restrictions and important safety information. All right, Johan, we're back. So my. My second. My first of my two GC questions. Young rider for classification. Also remember, if you're listening to this and you just want to bet, you can always wait on gc. Like, if none of this sounds convincing to you, you can just wait. Like, you know, if Almeida comes out and is, is what's going to happen is also Chicone is going to have the red jersey after stage two. He's going to win stage two. He's going to be in the race lead. Everyone's going to be, oh, Chicone. So the odds might even move in your favor. Like if you want to bet on Almeida, maybe Almeida doesn't look great, maybe Vinegar doesn't look great. You don't know. So you can always wait. Just keep your powder dry. But just for the sake of fun, Young rider for classification. Juana Uso is at +100TB. +300 Pelizarri. Julio Pelizar. +450 Matthew Riccatello +1200. Who do you think wins this young writer's classification?
- [19:09]
Johan Berniel
I think you have to go ISO. I mean, just something tells me, okay, he's been a bit off, you know, after his abandoning the Giro. But, you know, the Vuelta is one of those races where sometimes you see a Guy grow in the race. He's definitely going to be motivated. Yeah, I can't see any of those other young guys do better than I. Uso, actually. Unless Ayusho is all or nothing, you know, I mean, that's also a possibility. He just goes, you know, I mean, winning is difficult, but, you know, second or third, if he doesn't get that, then he may say, oh, you know what, I'm, you know, I'm giving up. Or, you know, I'm not motivated anymore and try to go for stage wins.
- [19:54]
Spencer Martin
But yeah, yeah, he's got to show something to the team, though, right?
- [19:57]
Johan Berniel
Yeah, yeah, yeah. I'm curious, actually, Spencer, to see how it's gonna be. We've seen it already many times, but, you know, UAE without Bogachar has been sometimes.
- [20:08]
Spencer Martin
I mean, so they could get lost.
- [20:13]
Johan Berniel
You know, what's going on here, you know, so, yeah, I mean, Almeida and Iuso, they're both ambitious. Personally, I have to say, though, you know, we always. I mean, we, as I say, you know, we, the media, I think we always make it bigger than it is. I don't. I don't. I don't really think there's a big issue, you know, with it internally. We like to see an issue, you know, we like to make it an issue. But is there really an issue? I'm not sure. It's usually the road that decides who's the strongest and especially the riders themselves. They know amongst each other who's the best, you know, And I saw, for example, I mean, not that it's, you know, very significant, but, you know, Ayusu has been criticized for being, you know, not a team player. I've seen him do some of those races in the Basque country, and of course, it's easier to do that when you're not in top shape. Right. But he's done the job for Del Toro. For example, there's one race that Del Toro wonder in the Basque Country. I forget now which one it was, but it was an unbelievable lead out on the climb of Juana. You show. First time I saw him do this, by the way, for someone else. But, you know, I think. I think we kind of exaggerate those situations a bit for the sake of sensationalism, you know.
- [21:34]
Spencer Martin
Oh, it's fun. Yeah, we need it. Yeah. I need to think that they're fighting constantly. And I mean, you do hint at, like, this race could get really weird really fast. Especially if you imagine Jorgensen's in a breakaway. I mean, same thing that happened in 2023 Sepkus gets up the road that everyone's staring at. Sudal quickstep. Quickstep says we're not going to pull. And everything falls apart really fast. Like, there is a danger that, like, Jai Hindley gets in a move and gets five minutes, six minutes. Exactly what we saw last year with Ben o'. Connor. So this will be a, I think, a difficult race to navigate. I'd assume with two riders like Ayuso and Almeida, that UAE will try to have a writer in a move like that. But I don't know. Jay vine, maybe. But actually, if Jay vines up the road with Mateo Jorgensen, who feels more confident in that? Visma or uae. So, and if. If Jai Henley's in there, maybe Red Bull feels the most confident. The funniest outcome would be Jai Henley winning this race and then adding to the drama at Red Bull next year, where they have a guy coming off of, well, toy.
- [22:40]
Johan Berniel
I mean, you know, it's been a while since we've seen something of Jay Hindley indicating that, you know, there might be a possibility. You know, this year, his best race was Tirino, I think, other than that, you know, two of the Alps, he was okay, not great. Then the Giro, he crashed out. You know, that's obviously not standard. And then, yeah, Burgos, he was not at the level we expected him to be. So it would be a surprise. But never count out. I mean, Jae Hind is obviously a quality rider. We can never discard a rider like that. But, you know, we haven't seen anything hopeful this year. For the moment. The world is special, though. You know, it's physical, but it's especially mental. You know, at the end of the season, there's many, many riders who don't want to be there, and they have to be there.
- [23:35]
Spencer Martin
What's kind of intriguing, so this young rider. I would also love to see Matthew Riccatello plus 1200 win the young rider classification. That would be amazing. But it's actually, it's kind of seen as like a fluky Grand Tour, but I went back and looked. It's actually more predictive of the following year than you think. Like 2011, Chris Froome's first, but not really. He finishes second. Bradley Wiggins finishes third. The next year at the Tour, it's Wiggins winning the Tour from second. And then Froome is dominant for the next, like, eight years of the Tour de France. 2019, Tadde Pagachar's third. I think he wins three stages.
- [24:12]
Johan Berniel
Yeah.
- [24:12]
Spencer Martin
And then he goes on to win the Tour the next Year and then has been dominant since then. So they're actually this. The young rider. For young rider classification at the Vuelta is actually quite important and can be very predictive of who's going to be a star in the future. So I am watching that closely. I think, yeah, you're right. Auso probably wins plus 100. If you want to put money on that now, that might be the best price. You get the second one. Matt's Petters. So points classification, Matt's Pedersen, who's on amazing form. Minus 182. Jasper Phillipson plus 350. Jonas Finnegaard plus 450. Axel Zingle plus 2200. Chiccone plus 3300. It's probably between Pederson and Phillipson. Even with the lack of sprint stages, there's only, really only three true sprint stages. Who do you think's gonna win this? Not sure.
- [24:58]
Johan Berniel
I mean, I would need the way the points are attributed. But it has happened in the Vuelta that, I mean, many times already that a classification rider won the win the points jersey. Many times it has happened. I would like to look into the details. I mean, I haven't studied the way that the points work, but I think Pedersen, you know, he's such. I mean, he's in great form. He's such a complete rider. There's many stages where he can score score points, where the sprinters won't score points. I mean, anybody who's seen him race, I mean, I was st. Of Denmark, of course, he was super motivated. The field was not super, super strong, but still there were some good riders. But the way he dominated there and, and, you know, he's been preparing for the VTA as being, you know, I mean, knowing that he wasn't selected for the Tour, he'll want to make a statement. He did win the points jersey in the, in the Giro, Right. So if Giro. Yeah, he did. You know, winning in the Giro and the Vuelta would definitely be a statement from, from him and I could see him do it.
- [26:13]
Spencer Martin
Well, in the last three Vueltas have been Kaden Groves. Kaden Groves. Mads Pedersen, winner of the points jersey. So that does tell you It's. It's quite possible. I'm trying to figure out. I'm looking at last year's race like, so summit finish.
- [26:29]
Johan Berniel
Yeah, it's been. It's similar, Spencer. It's, it's. It's quite similar.
- [26:34]
Spencer Martin
So it's like. Yeah, it's like 20 points for summit finish, 50 points for a sprint finish. Actually.
- [26:41]
Johan Berniel
Yeah.
- [26:41]
Spencer Martin
Pederson at minus 182 if he stays healthy. It's actually hard for me to see him losing this. Yeah, yeah, I would probably go for that team. I don't. I. 15 years into covering bike racing, I don't fully understand the team classification, but UAE Team Emirates is plus 130V's Melissa Bike plus 275. Probably one of those teams going to win the team classification, I would assume.
- [27:08]
Johan Berniel
Yeah, I mean, listen, I mean, it's always been. I mean, the last few years it's Fisma and uae. I also think that not a classification that these teams specifically go for and it just comes to them. Right. Whenever. If you have three guys always in the front. I mean, the team classification, the way it works is every, every stage is the top three riders of every team. And you know, it's, it's, it's, it's a, it's an addition. It's not like it's not. The classification is per day, everything. You start over, you start over. So, yeah, I mean, this is two strongest teams. It has to be one of those teams that wins it.
- [27:51]
Spencer Martin
Sometimes it can help you to have a dysfunctional team because you have two guys trying to beat each other. So they're. Their cumulative position is better than if they're actually working together.
- [28:01]
Johan Berniel
Back in the days, it was sometimes certain teams played with breakaways and you know, when a team got, let's say whatever, a breakaway that caught 10 minutes and they had three riders in it, that means that's 30 minutes that day you're getting. But those times are gone. You know, that's not happening anymore.
- [28:20]
Spencer Martin
Yeah, yeah.
- [28:21]
Johan Berniel
No, so, yeah, it needs to be one of those two team Spencer, UAE.
- [28:24]
Spencer Martin
Or Visma and then I guess mountains classification. This is real dangerous territory down in the vault. You're trying to predict the Vuelta mountains classification. Like I'd rather just not even touch that. It tends to be. Is it the writer that wins the overall often wins the mountains classification?
- [28:48]
Johan Berniel
11 uphill finishes. That's very likely.
- [28:50]
Spencer Martin
It would seem hard, yeah. To not win the mountains classification if you're in the overall. I did see last year Jay vine won instead of pretty much.
- [28:59]
Johan Berniel
Oh, yeah, he did. He did. He actually was, wasn't he? In sprinting with Walt Van Aert until Walt crashed because Walt was going.
- [29:07]
Spencer Martin
Oh, you're right, because wout was probably going to win.
- [29:09]
Johan Berniel
Walt was going to win mountains and points, I think, until he crashed out. And so basically then finally Jay vine got it, I think.
- [29:17]
Spencer Martin
Yeah, well, that's a stay away from. But let's take a quick break and then we will predict not tomorrow's Saturday's Stage one, everybody. This episode is brought to you by Mint Mobile. You know it doesn't belong in your epic summer plans getting burned by your old wireless bill. While you're planning beach trips, barbecues or long weekends for this upcoming holiday weekend, your wireless bills should be the last thing holding you back. That's why I've made the switch to Mint Mobile and you should too. With Mint, I get the same coverage and speed I'm used to, but for way less money. All their plans come with high speed data and unlimited talk and text on the nation's largest 5G network. This is especially important for me since I have a phone dedicated to streaming pro cycling wherever I am for my work on this podcast and my newsletter. And for that phone I use Mint due to the reliable service, high speeds and flexible plans even while abroad. While I was away this summer in the uk, in France, trying to stream as much as possible, Mint got it right to me so I could talk to you guys about it as quickly as possible. And so say bye bye to draw. Dropping monthly bills and unexpected overages. Right now, Mint Mobile is offering three months of unlimited premium wireless service for service for just 15 bucks a month. Seriously, I'm saving so much compared to my old provider and this service has been fantastic this year. Skip sweat, breaking a sweat and breaking the bank. Get this new customer offer in your three month unlimited wireless plan for just 15 bucks a month@mintmobile.com the move. That's mintmobile.com themove all right, back to the episode. Okay, Johan, so stage one of the Volta. It is a sprint stage, but this is, make no mistake, if you ever watch a Grand Tour and you're like, oh man, why is there so many sprint stages? This is the Grand Tour for you. Because there's not very many sprint stages. This is like basically one of three. It's in Torino. Italy must have a lot of money, I assume, because of what? This is the third Grand Tour and three years that's been to Torino. So Torino is. I actually wonder how the Giro feels about the Tour and the Vuelta. Like stepping on their turf a little bit. Because this is.
- [31:23]
Johan Berniel
Yeah. And then you have the Giro not starting in Italy. Yeah, yeah, yeah. This year in Albania.
- [31:30]
Spencer Martin
Right, Albania. And then I hear Bulgaria next year perhaps.
- [31:34]
Johan Berniel
And then a few years ago, started in Hungary.
- [31:38]
Spencer Martin
Hungary. And then. Yeah, yeah, yeah.
- [31:42]
Johan Berniel
They're famous for. I mean, I guess the Grand Tours just don't want to start in their own country, which is obviously because another country pays a lot of money to have the grander part of, you know, a Grand Tour.
- [31:55]
Spencer Martin
Yeah. And so it is kind of funny, though, because, like, so Torino's spending all this money for the Volta, but it's like, well, that's money that could have gone to the Giro. But I'm. I'm actually excited to see this region, so I'm glad we're back. I like it there. I like the racing there. But the favorite for the stage, Jasper Phillipson. Plus 110, Mads Pedersen. Plus 450, Casper van Uden. Plus 700, Ethan Verdon plus 900, Arie Arna Marit. Plus 16. 1600. It goes on and on, but we'll call them out when we need to. It's a pretty straightforward finish. It's flat and straight for the last. I say straight for the last 4K. There are multiple, what appears to be four or five roundabouts they have to go through, and then a slight bend to the right on the finish line. But I assume it's going to be bunch sprint. Johan, do you agree? And then who do you think is going to win?
- [32:47]
Johan Berniel
Yeah, yeah, I think it's bunch print, especially if there's almost no opportunities for the sprinters. And I'm going to pick Jasper Philipson, although, I mean, he's the heavy favorite. But I'm going to do that because if I look at the team, it's a team built around the sprinter. You know, they have the best lead out training. They have Philipson, they have Edward Plunkard, they have Jonas Rickard, they have Oscar Wiese. Big. You know, those guys are, like, made for that kind of job. Tobias Buyer, also fast guy. God, Levar. This is a team with one mission. It's, you know, the sprints for Philipson, same thing a little bit as. As Almeida. Right. He crashed out in stage three, I guess. Or two. No, two or three. It was stage two. He won stage one.
- [33:40]
Spencer Martin
No, no, wait. Yeah. Philipson, you're talking. Yeah, yeah, it must have been stage two, right? In the intermediate sprint.
- [33:48]
Johan Berniel
No.
- [33:48]
Spencer Martin
Is that right?
- [33:49]
Johan Berniel
Because if. No, if. It must have been stage three, because, you know, it was definitely stage three, because stage one, he was in yellow when he crashed. He was not in yellow, so it must have been stage. Yeah, yeah. Anyways, you know, crashed out early, broke his collarbone. I mean, I. I was with. I was with. I met him a few weeks ago in Spain. He told me he had surgery on the collarbone and he also had a few broken ribs. Was. It was really? He was. He was. He was banged up. I mean, that was a bad crash. Really looked bad. But, you know, he's back. You know, he's already raced in.
- [34:25]
Spencer Martin
Where did he race?
- [34:26]
Johan Berniel
And he did. He did Germany. Hamburg Classic, right?
- [34:29]
Spencer Martin
Yeah, he did Tour Denmark and then the Hamburg Classic.
- [34:33]
Johan Berniel
Oh, he did Tour of Denmark, Correct. Yeah, yeah, yeah, yeah.
- [34:37]
Spencer Martin
Cleaned up by Pedersen.
- [34:38]
Johan Berniel
Yeah, yeah, yeah, yeah, yeah, yeah. I mean, Patterson didn't allow almost any bunch prints. He was. He attacked every day. But, yeah, no Philipson. This is. For me, this is. This is the stage that these. This. This team will definitely work for it to be a bunch print. And I think they have faith in Philipson.
- [35:00]
Spencer Martin
Yeah, a little bit of a diversion. But that Hamburg Classic, did you see that finish with Rory Townsend winning? Pretty impressive, holding those guys off. I. Yeah. Phillipson's the favorite for a reason. I. I do agree with you. He probably wins, but I'm gonna pick Mads Pedersen plus 450 just because I don't. You know, I have some inside intel that maybe he was looking for a boat recently, maybe not so focused on his training. Just, you can kind of imagine, like, first day of a grand, stuff can go wrong, like we saw at the. We saw at the Tour of France. So we should spread our bets around so we're not leveraged on someone, you know, dropping a chain, 5k to go, and they're stuck on the side of the road. If Philipson has any problems, I think Pederson probably wins, so I'm going to go with him at +450.
- [35:49]
Johan Berniel
Yeah. Although Peterson is not a pure sprinter, but I think in this field, we have to consider Peterson one of the sprinters.
- [35:58]
Spencer Martin
Yeah. Do you have a wild card? I would almost have Pedersen as my favorite and wild card, I guess.
- [36:03]
Johan Berniel
Like, I mean, you know, you have a Casper von Uden who's a sprinter. He's not been doing great lately.
- [36:10]
Spencer Martin
No, that's a problem with a lot of these sprinters.
- [36:12]
Johan Berniel
Yeah. No, it's Phillipson and Pedersen, man, they kind of stick out.
- [36:17]
Spencer Martin
Only one that actually sticks out to me, but I wonder who he's working for is Jake Stewart. He's plus 20, 100 to win. I thought he should have been probably their sprinter at the Tour, but who is he working for here? Let me check really quick. Who's on this Israel team?
- [36:39]
Johan Berniel
Oh, I mean, Ethan Vernon.
- [36:41]
Spencer Martin
Ethan Vernon. Yeah. So I'll be working for Ethan Vernon. So don't pick Jake Stewart. All right. Yeah. So my favorite and wild card is Mads Pedersen. I think it's probably one of Phillipson or Pedersen that wins. Anything else, Johan, before we take off?
- [36:55]
Johan Berniel
No, that's it. We'll be back Saturday, I guess, you know, for our daily show. And I'm excited to watch these guys and yeah, especially on this course, man, it's, it's a hard world. It's, you know, mentally. This is hard, man. Like, you know, the last Grand Tour of the year. Hats off to Rionas Vingegaard. You know, like he, he focused everything on the Tour roll the great race, wasn't able to win. And, and now, now to be able to, you know, recharge the batteries and come back and, and go for it again, that's, that's quite something.
- [37:33]
Spencer Martin
Yeah, I mean, we, you and I have know someone who always talks about how he would never want to go to the Vuelta after the Tour. I think it's probably risen in prestige since then, but I actually can't imagine like getting second at that Tour and then it's like, all right, let's fire it back up.
- [37:49]
Johan Berniel
Yeah.
- [37:49]
Spencer Martin
Doing the vta, like, that's impressive.
- [37:51]
Johan Berniel
It is, it is.
- [37:53]
Spencer Martin
All right, well, thanks, Johan. And we will be back on Saturday after the stage to break it down.
- [37:58]
Johan Berniel
Okay, thanks, Spencer.
- [38:00]
Spencer Martin
All right, bye.
- [38:14]
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