THEMOVE Podcast Summary

Episode: Why is Tadej Pogačar So Much Better Than Everyone Else? | Il Lombardia Preview | OŪTCOMES
Date: October 10, 2025
Hosts: Spencer Martin, Johan Bruyneel

Episode Overview

This episode delivers a comprehensive preview of the final monument of the cycling season, Il Lombardia, with a focused investigation into the continued dominance of Tadej Pogačar. Spencer Martin and Johan Bruyneel dissect why Pogačar is a step above the competition, analyze race tactics, discuss the form and threat posed by rising talents like Isaac Del Toro and Paul Seixas, debate statistical comparisons with legends like Eddy Merckx, and dive deep into the ongoing impact of team strategies. The episode also touches on key news, such as the SRAM vs. UCI gear dispute and the high-profile contract legal battle surrounding Derek Gee of Israel Premier Tech.

Il Lombardia Preview & Pogačar’s Dominance

[01:28-06:31]

• The 241 km race is described as the "last significant major race" of the year, with a formidable 4,600 meters of climbing.

• The course starts in Como and finishes in Bergamo, following the slightly "easier" of its alternating routes.

• Favorites and Odds:

  • The bookmakers make Pogačar a -750 favorite, followed by Remco Evenepoel (+650), Isaac Del Toro (+1400), Tom Pidcock (+1600), Adam Yates (+2800), Paul Seixas (+2800), Primož Roglič (+3300), and Oscar Onley at a remarkable +30,000.
  • “I've never seen anything like this in a one day race... you might not find a book that’ll even take money on Pogačar right now!” – Spencer [03:05]

• Insider Prediction:

  • Both Spencer and Johan see no realistic outcome except Pogačar taking yet another victory unless he is sidelined by illness or a crash.
  • “He is going to win this. The way he’s been riding… no other scenario possible.” – Johan [03:56]

• Race Dynamics:

  • Pogačar is finding new ways to win, including attacks on descents (not just climbs) and even seemingly accidental accelerations that decide races.
  • At recent Tre Valli Varesine, he used teammate Isaac Del Toro to bridge to a move; then attacked on a descent and was never seen again.
    “He just kind of accelerated. Once he had a few meters, it’s done.” – Spencer [06:12]

Rising Talents: Isaac Del Toro & Paul Seixas

[06:12–09:07]

• Isaac Del Toro (age 21):

  • Rapid emergence as a top-tier one-day rider, now UCI #2 behind Pogačar.
  • Noted for wins at Giro dell'Emilia and Gran Piemonte, with the ability to out-sprint top riders.
  • “Isaac Del Toro is better than Pogačar was at the same age… He seems to get better every race.” – Spencer [08:25]
  • Both hosts agree Del Toro is the second-strongest rider in the peloton right now.

• Paul Seixas (age 19):

  • “Best one-day racer at 19 I could ever find… seriously good.” – Spencer [08:25]
  • Johan expects him to podium.

• Spencer’s Podium Prediction: Pogačar, Del Toro, Evenepoel.

Statistical Dominance: Pogačar vs. History

[09:48–14:49]

• Since 2019, Pogačar has 379 race days and 107 wins—a 28% win rate across all races.

• Win Rate by Year:

  • 2019: 12%
  • 2020–21: 21%
  • 2022: 29%
  • 2023: 34%
  • 2024: 43%
  • 2025 (YTD): 39%

• Comparison with Eddy Merckx:

  • Johan shares a stat comparing Merckx’s 20% all-time win rate with Pogačar’s possibly 39% if certain races are factored out.
  • "If he has another two years like this, he is definitely on the Merckx way." – Johan [12:05]

• Current Dominance:

  • Johan: “Since I’ve been in cycling… I cannot remember such dominance. There’s probably a 90% chance he wins if it’s his race.” [13:01]

How Can Anyone Beat Pogačar?

[18:45–25:59]

• Both agree only a crash or illness could prevent Pogačar’s win.

• Possible Tactic:

  • If UAE sends Del Toro up the road, other favorites might have to work to bring him back.
  • But UAE’s strength makes all other tactics difficult; even Yates, Vine, Sivakov, Majka, and Novak could be leaders elsewhere.
    “The UAE team lineup… is twice as strong as the next strongest team.” – Johan [20:41]

• Gift Scenario:

  • Debate on whether Pogačar might gift a monument to a teammate—both skeptical, especially with history (e.g., Fausto Coppi’s record on the line).
  • “To give away a monument to a teammate? Too much.” – Johan [22:52]

• Attacking Too Early:

  • Dismissed as a threat—“He used to risk going too early and blowing up… not anymore.” [23:58]

Why Can’t Teams Chase Him Down?

[26:32–34:29]

• Tactical Frustration:

  • Riders are often too exhausted to chase his attacks, especially as UAE makes races brutally hard.
  • “By the time the attack comes, they’re on their knees.” – Spencer [28:22]

• Critique of Belgium’s Euro Champs Tactics:

  • Johan cites Belgium’s error of “making the race hard,” resulting simply in a win for the strongest rider.
  • "If you make the race hard, who is it helping? The strongest rider.” – Spencer [33:11]

Pogačar’s Physical & Tactical Evolution

[35:32–38:25]

• Physical Development:

  • Early Tour de France wins were achieved with less “optimized” training and nutrition.
  • Recent optimization has added to his margin:
    “He won the Tour twice not 100% professional…that’s actually scary.” – Johan [37:39]

• Efficiency:

  • Notable differences in caloric expenditure: Pogačar burns 600–1000 fewer calories than rivals in the same races (per Strava data), thanks to positioning and energy conservation.
  • “When everyone is close to their limit, he’s still cruising.” – Johan [44:01]

SRAM vs. UCI Gear Dispute

[46:52–57:48]

• Background: UCI attempted to restrict gear ratios, in effect banning SRAM’s distinctive 10-tooth cog.

• SRAM’s Complaint:

  • Argues they were unfairly targeted, with competitive disadvantage and brand harm.
  • SRAM won their case with the Belgian Competition Authority, halting UCI’s “test” ruling.
  • "They cannot— they're the governing body of bike sport and depend on the industry… constantly going against these brands they need." – Johan [51:36]

• UCI Oversight:

  • Didn’t consult with SRAM; sponsors Shimano (unaffected by the rule proposal) still support UCI.
  • The test would have had little value (and been unfair) in a WorldTour backwater like Guangxi.

Derek Gee vs. Israel-Premier Tech: Legal Drama

[57:48–71:52]

• Context:

  • Derek Gee announces his departure from Israel-Premier Tech, citing "irreparable relationship" with the team principal (Sylvan Adams) and "serious ethical concerns."
  • He reveals he's being sued for €30 million for breach of contract.

• Prediction:

  • Johan expects a drawn-out legal process, as happened with Wout van Aert, but notes the scale is higher due to the wealth and legal firepower involved.
  • “If you have a contract, but things happen in your working environment that make it impossible for you to carry on, you have legal ground to terminate.” – Johan [61:50]
  • Likely outcome: negotiated settlement; Gee probably joins Ineos, though official status is pending on legal clarity.

• Canadian/International Jurisdiction:

  • Confusion over where the suit will land, depending on residency and team registration.
  • Ultimately, the UCI may not approve a transfer without a three-party agreement unless overridden by a civil court.

• Motives:

  • Team seeks to maximize any buyout or damages, but €30M is seen as a negotiating tactic.
  • "The claim of losing €30M in sponsorship because Gee is leaving… that's complete nonsense.” – Johan [71:59]

Memorable Quotes

• “He’s a killing machine… it’s crazy.” – Johan on Pogačar’s physical transformation [38:25]
• “How frustrating must it be for all these other riders and teams… nothing works.” – Johan [27:31]
• “The UAE lineup for Lombardy is twice as strong as the next strongest team.” – Johan [20:41]
• “When everyone is close to their limit, he’s still cruising.” – Johan [44:01]
• “I've never seen anything like this in a one day race...” – Spencer [03:05]
• "If someone wants to beat him, they might have to go with 100K to go." – Spencer [73:31]

Important Timestamps

• [01:28] Race preview and odds breakdown
• [03:56] Predictions: “No other scenario than Pogačar”
• [06:12] How Pogačar wins differently
• [09:48] Win-rate stats and Merckx comparison
• [18:45] Scenarios where Pogačar could lose
• [20:41] UAE’s unmatched team strength
• [26:32] Why rivals fail to chase
• [35:32] Pogačar’s physical and tactical evolution
• [44:01] Energy use and peloton efficiency
• [51:36] SRAM-UCI controversy
• [57:48] Derek Gee's legal and ethical saga

Final Thoughts

• Both hosts agree: barring catastrophe, Pogačar is set for a historic fifth consecutive Il Lombardia victory.
• Watch for Del Toro and Seixas as breakout performers.
• The peloton and cycling world are grappling with unprecedented domination—and with the institutional growing pains (rules, contracts, tech) coming along with it.
• The episode ends urging fans to tune in with 100km to go, since early action may be required by anyone hoping to unseat Pogačar.

For those who missed the episode, this summary covers all the key themes, forecasts, and behind-the-scenes narratives driving the final monument—and cycling’s biggest ongoing stories.