Why is Tadej Pogačar so Much Better Than Everyone Else? | Il Lombardia Preview | OŪTCOMES

Summary

THEMOVE Podcast Summary

Episode: Why is Tadej Pogačar So Much Better Than Everyone Else? | Il Lombardia Preview | OŪTCOMES
Date: October 10, 2025
Hosts: Spencer Martin, Johan Bruyneel

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Episode Overview

This episode delivers a comprehensive preview of the final monument of the cycling season, Il Lombardia, with a focused investigation into the continued dominance of Tadej Pogačar. Spencer Martin and Johan Bruyneel dissect why Pogačar is a step above the competition, analyze race tactics, discuss the form and threat posed by rising talents like Isaac Del Toro and Paul Seixas, debate statistical comparisons with legends like Eddy Merckx, and dive deep into the ongoing impact of team strategies. The episode also touches on key news, such as the SRAM vs. UCI gear dispute and the high-profile contract legal battle surrounding Derek Gee of Israel Premier Tech.

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Il Lombardia Preview & Pogačar’s Dominance

[01:28-06:31]

• The 241 km race is described as the "last significant major race" of the year, with a formidable 4,600 meters of climbing.

• The course starts in Como and finishes in Bergamo, following the slightly "easier" of its alternating routes.

• Favorites and Odds:

  • The bookmakers make Pogačar a -750 favorite, followed by Remco Evenepoel (+650), Isaac Del Toro (+1400), Tom Pidcock (+1600), Adam Yates (+2800), Paul Seixas (+2800), Primož Roglič (+3300), and Oscar Onley at a remarkable +30,000.
  • “I've never seen anything like this in a one day race... you might not find a book that’ll even take money on Pogačar right now!” – Spencer [03:05]

• Insider Prediction:

  • Both Spencer and Johan see no realistic outcome except Pogačar taking yet another victory unless he is sidelined by illness or a crash.
  • “He is going to win this. The way he’s been riding… no other scenario possible.” – Johan [03:56]

• Race Dynamics:

  • Pogačar is finding new ways to win, including attacks on descents (not just climbs) and even seemingly accidental accelerations that decide races.
  • At recent Tre Valli Varesine, he used teammate Isaac Del Toro to bridge to a move; then attacked on a descent and was never seen again.
    “He just kind of accelerated. Once he had a few meters, it’s done.” – Spencer [06:12]

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Rising Talents: Isaac Del Toro & Paul Seixas

[06:12–09:07]

• Isaac Del Toro (age 21):

  • Rapid emergence as a top-tier one-day rider, now UCI #2 behind Pogačar.
  • Noted for wins at Giro dell'Emilia and Gran Piemonte, with the ability to out-sprint top riders.
  • “Isaac Del Toro is better than Pogačar was at the same age… He seems to get better every race.” – Spencer [08:25]
  • Both hosts agree Del Toro is the second-strongest rider in the peloton right now.

• Paul Seixas (age 19):

  • “Best one-day racer at 19 I could ever find… seriously good.” – Spencer [08:25]
  • Johan expects him to podium.

• Spencer’s Podium Prediction: Pogačar, Del Toro, Evenepoel.

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Statistical Dominance: Pogačar vs. History

[09:48–14:49]

• Since 2019, Pogačar has 379 race days and 107 wins—a 28% win rate across all races.

• Win Rate by Year:

  • 2019: 12%
  • 2020–21: 21%
  • 2022: 29%
  • 2023: 34%
  • 2024: 43%
  • 2025 (YTD): 39%

• Comparison with Eddy Merckx:

  • Johan shares a stat comparing Merckx’s 20% all-time win rate with Pogačar’s possibly 39% if certain races are factored out.
  • "If he has another two years like this, he is definitely on the Merckx way." – Johan [12:05]

• Current Dominance:

  • Johan: “Since I’ve been in cycling… I cannot remember such dominance. There’s probably a 90% chance he wins if it’s his race.” [13:01]

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How Can Anyone Beat Pogačar?

[18:45–25:59]

• Both agree only a crash or illness could prevent Pogačar’s win.

• Possible Tactic:

  • If UAE sends Del Toro up the road, other favorites might have to work to bring him back.
  • But UAE’s strength makes all other tactics difficult; even Yates, Vine, Sivakov, Majka, and Novak could be leaders elsewhere.
    “The UAE team lineup… is twice as strong as the next strongest team.” – Johan [20:41]

• Gift Scenario:

  • Debate on whether Pogačar might gift a monument to a teammate—both skeptical, especially with history (e.g., Fausto Coppi’s record on the line).
  • “To give away a monument to a teammate? Too much.” – Johan [22:52]

• Attacking Too Early:

  • Dismissed as a threat—“He used to risk going too early and blowing up… not anymore.” [23:58]

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Why Can’t Teams Chase Him Down?

[26:32–34:29]

• Tactical Frustration:

  • Riders are often too exhausted to chase his attacks, especially as UAE makes races brutally hard.
  • “By the time the attack comes, they’re on their knees.” – Spencer [28:22]

• Critique of Belgium’s Euro Champs Tactics:

  • Johan cites Belgium’s error of “making the race hard,” resulting simply in a win for the strongest rider.
  • "If you make the race hard, who is it helping? The strongest rider.” – Spencer [33:11]

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Pogačar’s Physical & Tactical Evolution

[35:32–38:25]

• Physical Development:

  • Early Tour de France wins were achieved with less “optimized” training and nutrition.
  • Recent optimization has added to his margin:
    “He won the Tour twice not 100% professional…that’s actually scary.” – Johan [37:39]

• Efficiency:

  • Notable differences in caloric expenditure: Pogačar burns 600–1000 fewer calories than rivals in the same races (per Strava data), thanks to positioning and energy conservation.
  • “When everyone is close to their limit, he’s still cruising.” – Johan [44:01]

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SRAM vs. UCI Gear Dispute

[46:52–57:48]

• Background: UCI attempted to restrict gear ratios, in effect banning SRAM’s distinctive 10-tooth cog.

• SRAM’s Complaint:

  • Argues they were unfairly targeted, with competitive disadvantage and brand harm.
  • SRAM won their case with the Belgian Competition Authority, halting UCI’s “test” ruling.
  • "They cannot— they're the governing body of bike sport and depend on the industry… constantly going against these brands they need." – Johan [51:36]

• UCI Oversight:

  • Didn’t consult with SRAM; sponsors Shimano (unaffected by the rule proposal) still support UCI.
  • The test would have had little value (and been unfair) in a WorldTour backwater like Guangxi.

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Derek Gee vs. Israel-Premier Tech: Legal Drama

[57:48–71:52]

• Context:

  • Derek Gee announces his departure from Israel-Premier Tech, citing "irreparable relationship" with the team principal (Sylvan Adams) and "serious ethical concerns."
  • He reveals he's being sued for €30 million for breach of contract.

• Prediction:

  • Johan expects a drawn-out legal process, as happened with Wout van Aert, but notes the scale is higher due to the wealth and legal firepower involved.
  • “If you have a contract, but things happen in your working environment that make it impossible for you to carry on, you have legal ground to terminate.” – Johan [61:50]
  • Likely outcome: negotiated settlement; Gee probably joins Ineos, though official status is pending on legal clarity.

• Canadian/International Jurisdiction:

  • Confusion over where the suit will land, depending on residency and team registration.
  • Ultimately, the UCI may not approve a transfer without a three-party agreement unless overridden by a civil court.

• Motives:

  • Team seeks to maximize any buyout or damages, but €30M is seen as a negotiating tactic.
  • "The claim of losing €30M in sponsorship because Gee is leaving… that's complete nonsense.” – Johan [71:59]

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Memorable Quotes

• “He’s a killing machine… it’s crazy.” – Johan on Pogačar’s physical transformation [38:25]
• “How frustrating must it be for all these other riders and teams… nothing works.” – Johan [27:31]
• “The UAE lineup for Lombardy is twice as strong as the next strongest team.” – Johan [20:41]
• “When everyone is close to their limit, he’s still cruising.” – Johan [44:01]
• “I've never seen anything like this in a one day race...” – Spencer [03:05]
• "If someone wants to beat him, they might have to go with 100K to go." – Spencer [73:31]

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Important Timestamps

• [01:28] Race preview and odds breakdown
• [03:56] Predictions: “No other scenario than Pogačar”
• [06:12] How Pogačar wins differently
• [09:48] Win-rate stats and Merckx comparison
• [18:45] Scenarios where Pogačar could lose
• [20:41] UAE’s unmatched team strength
• [26:32] Why rivals fail to chase
• [35:32] Pogačar’s physical and tactical evolution
• [44:01] Energy use and peloton efficiency
• [51:36] SRAM-UCI controversy
• [57:48] Derek Gee's legal and ethical saga

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Final Thoughts

• Both hosts agree: barring catastrophe, Pogačar is set for a historic fifth consecutive Il Lombardia victory.
• Watch for Del Toro and Seixas as breakout performers.
• The peloton and cycling world are grappling with unprecedented domination—and with the institutional growing pains (rules, contracts, tech) coming along with it.
• The episode ends urging fans to tune in with 100km to go, since early action may be required by anyone hoping to unseat Pogačar.

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For those who missed the episode, this summary covers all the key themes, forecasts, and behind-the-scenes narratives driving the final monument—and cycling’s biggest ongoing stories.

Transcript

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[Spencer Martin]

Data 182025 Visit T mobile.com Paul Seychas is 19, Isaac Del Toro is 21. Isaac Del Toro is better than Pagachar was at the same age at one day racing and he seems to get better every race. If I I everyone should be freaked out about this guy. He is incredible. Paul Sechas, 19 years old. He is the best one day racer I could ever find at 19. And the quality of races he's doing, he's seriously good. Hi, I'm Spencer Martin along with Johan Berniel and this is Outcomes.

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Outcomes is for informational entertainment purposes only.

[Spencer Martin]

Nothing in this podcast should be considered financial advice. Please gamble responsib if you or someone you know has a gambling problem, seek help from a professional resource. Host and guests may have financial interests in the bets discussed. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Hey everybody. Welcome back to Outcomes. I'm Spencer Martin. I'm here with Johan Berniel. We are predicting Tomorrow's Il Lombardia one day race. 253 kilometers long. Sorry, 241 kilometers long. The last. It's not even the last. It's not the last World Tour race of the year. It's the last, let's call it significant major race of the year. It's the last time we'll see these big stars racing before 2026 and then after we do that we'll get into a little bit of news items kind of do A a miniature the move plus at the end. But Johan the the key stats for this race. 241km long. It's the only monument I believe that changes courses, it flip flops between Como, starting in Como and finishing in Bergamo every year. So some years it starts in Bergamo, finishes in Como, sometimes the other, other way around. I believe this, this is the year it starts in Como, finishes in Bergamot. Kind of the easier route even though it's not that easy. It's about 4,600 meters of climbing. The final climb, the final major climb crests about 31 km from the finish which is where Pagacha attacked the last time he won this two years ago. And there's a bump about a kilometer before the finish. The favorites are. This is ridiculous. I've never seen anything like this in a one day race. This is from Unibet in the uk. It actually might be hard to find a book that will take money on this race. And I actually wonder as a macro trend if it's becoming harder to find books to take money on races Pagat is doing because he's winning everything. But Pagat is The favorite at minus 750, meaning you have to bet $750 to win $100 of profit. Remco Evol second at plus 650. Isaac del Toro plus 1400. Tom Pickock plus 1600. Adam Yates plus 2800. Paul Seychas plus 2800. Primos Roglic plus 3300. Mateuszkomoza plus 4000. Oscar Onley. This one I circled plus 30,000. Keep an eye on him.

[Johan Berniel]

30,000 or 3000?

[Spencer Martin]

It's 30,000. I don't know if that's data entry error or what is going on there. But Johan, how do you think this is going to play out? I think we already know what you're going to say. And who do you think is going to win.

[Johan Berniel]

Is going to win? Spencer? I don't think there's any other scenario. The only thing that can happen is, well, first he gets sick overnight and doesn't start. It's always a possibility. Or he has a crash and crashes out, you know, mechanical I don't think will stop him. Especially I mean even in the final. I mean normally if he gets a mechanical in the final, he's going to be by himself or maybe with one or two other guys. The car is going to be there. So yeah, I'm afraid that Pugachar is gonna win this the way he's been riding, you know, Since. Since Montreal, you know, after the Tour. But he's a lot better now than when he was in Montreal. And it looks like, you know, I mean, he. He won the worlds, he won the European Championships, man. Impressively, you know, reappeared in Italy in. What was it, Trevali, Varinese. One there also. Plus, you know, with the team they're bringing, I don't think there's any other scenario possible than Bogachar wins this race.

[Spencer Martin]

Yeah, I'm gonna have to agree with you. Even at minus 750, I actually can't find a book in the US that will take this. I would bet on him. I think we'll. We'll circle back on key things from these races we didn't cover at the end of this. But European Championships, they ice Belgium, isolated Pagachar. I'm picking Pagacha, by the way. That's my official pick. They isolate Pagachar. It almost seemed to help him because they isolated him. They made the race hard, and then he said, thank you very much, and then attacked them. But that's. We already knew that, Johan. Right? We knew that he could win on a climb. Well, Trey Valet rolls around on Tuesday. He says, watch this. And he lets a move go up the road with Quinn Simmons. And then he says, oh, I got my. Got my boys back. I'm not on Slovene anymore. I have the strongest team in the world in uae. Hey, Isaac Del Toro, want to pull me up to those guys? He pulls them up. Del Toro gets to the front. I don't know why they let Pagatra go to the back unmarked. And on a descent, he just. He attacks. I don't even know if he really attacked. He just kind of accelerated.

[Johan Berniel]

Yeah.

[Spencer Martin]

Once he had a few meters, it's done. Because no one's going to help you pull him back. And he rode away on the downhill like he's finding new ways to win. To me, that was one of the most impressive wins of the season for him. And if that's not bad enough for everyone else at this race, Isaac del Toro, plus 1400. He would probably be my second pick.

[Johan Berniel]

But he is the second strongest guy for the moment. He's also by. By the way, since the last two races, is now also officially number two on the UCI ranking.

[Spencer Martin]

He.

[Johan Berniel]

I think he passed Aramco. He's the second best rider in the world right now, points wise, behind Pogacha, who has almost the double amount of points than the second.

[Spencer Martin]

Wow.

[Johan Berniel]

Yeah.

[Spencer Martin]

And so he wins the day before Euro Championships. He's not Eligible to race European Championships. Obviously wins at Giro del Amelia. Super impressive because Tom Pickock attacked at the bottom of that final climb. Looked like he had it and Del Toro wasn't he. I thought he was having a bad day, but it's because he wasn't even panicking. He just bridged up, smoked him in the sprint. Wins the Grand Piemonte yesterday. Looks like, as you say, the second best rider coming into this race. And here's the if you had to pick a rider, I almost think a wild card is almost a waste of time and money for this race. But if you had to pick the podium, Johan, who would you pick to finish behind Pagachar?

[Johan Berniel]

I'm going to say Del Toro and Bose Chess, even if he's 19. But yeah, he's, he's an incredible form. Did the great world Championships, Was third in the European Championships. Man, that guy's good. Plus, you know, I mean, Remco, I think Remco is going to be there, Pitka is going to be there, but they are going to be carrying the pursuit and Seychelles is going to be able to kind of look, look around a bit, do a bit of work, not too much. So I'm gonna pick him as, as number three. I think Del Toro gets second tomorrow.

[Spencer Martin]

I, I, I, so my podium, I have Teddy Begachar, Isaac Del Toro, I agree with you on that. And pulse shots is very good. I did a little deep dive on both these guys. Pulsi shots is 19. Isa Del Toro is 21. Isar Del Toro is better than Pagachar was at the same age at one day racing. And he seems to get better every race. If I, I, everyone should be freaked out about this guy. He is incredible. Paul Seychelles, 19 years old. He is the best one day racer I could ever find at 19. And the quality of races he's doing, he's seriously good. But I can't believe I'm doing this. I'm going to pick Remco Evanopole when you're not. I think Remco is on some of the best one day form I've ever seen from him.

[Johan Berniel]

Even though he's not definitely in great form.

[Spencer Martin]

Yeah, yeah. Finishing second, I think he's going to get third. But I think he's going to get a little bullied by Del Toro.

[Johan Berniel]

I think, I think the conclusion of Remco's two championships, right, so the Worlds and the European Championships is that he must be on incredible form because his base must be, you know, he gets, he gets knocked down like big time knocked down and he recovers and he keeps going. And his. He's still really solid and rides away from everybody else and there's no reason why he can't do that tomorrow in Lombardia.

[Spencer Martin]

So if someone wasn't going also, we were, we were. Crunchy numbers before he recorded. Pagachar has done a total of. This is just. I've counted by hand since 2019. 379 total race days, 107 wins. That's nearly one in three races he's winning. So 28 win rates. Maybe it doesn't sound impressive, but think of all the sprint stages at Grand Tour.

[Johan Berniel]

It is impressive, Spencer. It's. It's crazy impressive.

[Spencer Martin]

It's.

[Johan Berniel]

I've seen somewhere another stat. I can't find it anymore. So I don't know. I don't know how they accounted for the amount of races, but it was a comparison. You know, we always have this eternal debate, you know, Eddie Merckx versus Pogacha, who's the greatest? You know, I've always said that for the moment, Eddie Merckx is the greatest because also we look at his total career and Pogacha is. I mean, could we say he's in the middle of his career? I mean, probably age wise, yes, maybe mentally not, but it is no signs of slowing down. If he has another two years like this, he is definitely on the Merck's way. But this stat was actually impressive and it's. It's a pity I don't have the numbers, but it's something in the range of mercs as a professional cyclist. I mean, back then they graced a lot more, right. And there was less riders and there was more condensed. There was European sport, you know, it was Belgium, France, Italy, the Netherlands, Spain, bit of Germany. That's it. And now they're coming from all over the place and they raced less. But Merckx did about a thousand races, I think, and he had 200 and something wins. I think it was about 20% win rate as a pro. And the other stat I saw and was something. Pogacha did 200, 200 something races and he had won how many wins he has on 107.

[Spencer Martin]

107.

[Johan Berniel]

And it was, it that was. I mean, I've seen somewhere something like 39% winning. So maybe, maybe it's just that they take out the stages.

[Spencer Martin]

Sprints and stuff at break.

[Johan Berniel]

I don't know. I don't know. I mean, it's difficult, but yeah. And Spencer, you know, looking at Pogachiar's dominance. You know, I personally, I cannot remember, at least for as long as I've been actively involved in cycling. You know, I do remember mercs from my childhood, but I wasn't cycling yet, so I did pay obviously less attention. But since I've started racing and then became a professional, then was a team manager and team director, I cannot remember such a dominance. A rider like Pugachar, where basically every race this rider starts. Would it be fair to say that whenever it was his course, like taking out sprint stages, there's a probably like a 90 chance that that rider would win.

[Spencer Martin]

Yeah, I need to do a deep dive on this, actually. You're giving me a lot of good ideas for the office.

[Johan Berniel]

I mean, it's like a feeling. It's a feeling that I have, you know, I mean, it's not obviously, statistically it's not correct, but man.

[Spencer Martin]

You could though, filter out all the. Just like his target races. And I'm trying to think off the top of my head, how many in the last two years? Three races that he didn't win? Four.

[Johan Berniel]

And he was on the podium on those races.

[Spencer Martin]

Yes. Yeah. Yeah. It's crazy.

[Johan Berniel]

Yeah.

[Spencer Martin]

Well, you have this. I mean, there's a few stages of the Tour this year that like were bubble. You know, the guys broke away and they didn't quite catch them.

[Johan Berniel]

Yeah.

[Spencer Martin]

But if you really think about beaten, it would be. It would be Roubaix Sanremo, Tour de France, stage 11 last year.

[Johan Berniel]

Yep.

[Spencer Martin]

San Remo last year. And that's it.

[Johan Berniel]

I think so. The last two years. I think that's it.

[Spencer Martin]

Crazy. Crazy. Yeah. I mean even the shocking thing to me is how much better he is getting. So 2019, we talked about that win rate, career, almost 30%. 12% win rate in 2019. You're like, well, that's pretty good for first year pro. Wow. 20, 2021. That's already historically good. 2020, 2020 2021%. 2021, 2020 21%. Too many 21s. 2022, 29%. 2023, 34%. 2024, 43. This is all race starts, including nothing breakaway days and sprints days. 2025, 39%. So he's. He's at a dip.

[Johan Berniel]

He's.

[Spencer Martin]

He's in a slump season. He needs to win.

[Johan Berniel]

He needs to win tomorrow. He needs to win tomorrow. It's gonna bring him to 40, I guess.

[Spencer Martin]

Let me just pencil in a win there.

[Johan Berniel]

Yeah, yeah, yeah. And that is when I guess that's it. No, he's not racing anymore after that.

[Spencer Martin]

I would hope not.

[Johan Berniel]

I mean, at least not officially. We do know, we do know there's going to be one of those exhibition races in Andorra. Where is it? So it's Jonas Remco and who else?

[Spencer Martin]

It's Del Toro. Jonas from Kotade, I believe.

[Johan Berniel]

Yeah, those four, we'll have like a four man race and like, you know, like gonna be a time trial and it's gonna be different short events, but you know, those are. That's not a real race. Let's say it's more for the spectators and the entertainment.

[Spencer Martin]

So let's take a quick break and when we come back, I want to ask you, if he doesn't win this, how does that happen? And then we're going to get into a few other topics before we take off. Yeah. All right, we'll be right back, everybody. This episode is brought to you by Caldera Lab. Let's be honest, cycling is not great for your skin. That's where Caldera Lab comes in. They're com. They've completely redefined men's skin care by combining advanced science with clean, non toxic ingredients. So it's simple, effective and actually works. Their lineup is incredible. They have the good and award winning serum that delivers nearly 3.4 million antioxidant units per drop to help protect your skin and keep it looking smooth and hydrated. The eye serum tackles dark circles and puffiness. 75% of users said their eyes looked brighter. This is key if you're waking up early for podcast. Oof. You need that eye serum. And the base layer is a quick absorbing, nutrient rich moisturizer with clean matte finish. No greasy feel, no fuss. Great for both your face and your legs after you shave them. Since I started using it, my skin looks better and more importantly, I just feel better and more put together when I leave the house. Two minute routine done. Boom. I'm on my way. I feel fantastic. So whether you're starting fresh or upgrading your routine, Caldera Lab makes skin care simple and effective. Don't settle for drugstore junk or steal your partner's products. Elevate your routine with skincare made for you. Head to calderalab.com themove and and use code the move at checkout for 20% off your first order. That's caldera lab.com themove for 20% off. All right, back to the show, everybody. This episode is brought to you by hims. Cycling is all about confidence and in many ways so is life. So that means if your hair loss is messing with your confidence, you need to get hims because they make it easy to take control with simple personalized care that actually fits your life. HIMS gives you convenient access to prescription hair loss treatments that work, including chews, oral meds, serums, and sprays, all backed by clinically proven ingredients that can stop hair loss and even regrow hair in as little as three to six months. The best part? It's all online. You connect with a licensed medical provider, get a treatment plan personalized for you, and it ships right to your door. No waiting rooms, no awkward pharmacy lines, no surprises, just expert care on your schedule. For simple online access to personalized and affordable care for hair loss, ED, weight loss, and more, visit himss.com themove that's hims.com themove for your free online visit. Remember H I M S.com themove individual results may vary based on studies of topical and oral minoxidil and finasteride. Featured products include compounded drug products which the FDA does not approve or verify for safety, effectiveness or quality. Prescription required. See website for full details, restrictions, and important safety information. Okay, Johan, it's. It's Saturday tomorrow where we're sitting down to do the move, which we'll be doing right after the race with a special guest. Finally, we got someone to join us, and Tade has not won. How did this happen?

[Johan Berniel]

Crash.

[Spencer Martin]

Crash.

[Johan Berniel]

Can't think of anything else, you know, I mean, tactically. I mean, you could say tactically. How could they? How could they? I mean, it's potentially possible that Pogacha doesn't win and Del Toro wins. You know, if Del Toro goes early on those on, what is there? Paseo del crochetta or whatever? Paso de crochetta. After 165k, potentially he could go there and then basically that would be, you know, the right thing to do strategically as a team, you. You try to have the other teams work. So if you have your second best rider, who, by the way, is recently also the second best rider in the world, that's not a bad situation to play tactically. Del Toro Lee takes off and other teams start organizing and they can't catch him. Bogacha is not going to ride himself unless he's 100% sure he can get away by himself, which I think he's 100% sure he can do that. But then would he actually do that? Would he actually do that? And so I personally think it's probably safer for UAE to just do a traditional scenario. Just keep it together for as long as you can or at Least keep the breakaway within the limits. They have a very, very, very strong team by far, I would say uae. The UAE team lineup for Lombardy is twice as strong as the next strongest team, I think. So if you have that, it's, it's, you know, there's not much tactics involved. You just write. I mean, they did that already in the past. They, you know, and if they can keep Del Toro and who. They have Micah, they have Sivakov, they have Adam Yates, they have Jay vine, they have Domen Novak.

[Spencer Martin]

I mean, that's, you know, that is a ridiculous team. Those guys could all be leaders on other teams in this race except Novak.

[Johan Berniel]

But all the others can be.

[Spencer Martin]

I don't know. There might be a few teams that don't. Novak could be a leader, but, you.

[Johan Berniel]

Know, I mean, to play it safe, I would, I would, you know, use the traditional strategy, you know, cycling, cycling law 101, you know, just control. And then as long as Poacher has teammates, he just stays where he is. And when, you know, when his last teammate is done, he goes. And by then, I mean, if his last teammate would be Del Toro, who else will be there? It's going to be Remco and, and, And Pitcock and Seychas. That's it. I mean, there's not going to. Nobody else can be there.

[Spencer Martin]

The only thing I'm struggling with is so Paso Della Croquette. Croquette. They. If Del Toro attacks there, he's so good. It's hard for me to imagine that Rimco and Pidcock don't follow him.

[Johan Berniel]

Huh? They have to.

[Spencer Martin]

And, and then in that case, Bagatra has to follow them.

[Johan Berniel]

Yeah, yeah.

[Spencer Martin]

So then you're in a situation where forgot your is probably winning. And I, I do. I. I'm just trying to think of way C doesn't win. This I could imagine. I'm just trying to imagine myself in rage that he doesn't win. It would be something like that happens. Del Toro gets away. Pagacha Bridges up on the Ganda, lets Del Toro win. And you're saying no. What are you doing? I have money on this.

[Johan Berniel]

Not a monument. Not a monument.

[Spencer Martin]

I don't think that's going to happen. And not only just a monument, but Picachar is one win away from tying Fausto Copy for most wins at Lombardi in his career. He has four. Another win, we give him five. And not just five, but five in a row. He's won the last four editions of this, so. Which I don't believe Fausto Copy did as this.

[Johan Berniel]

Probably not.

[Spencer Martin]

So I think that's just too much to risk.

[Johan Berniel]

Yeah. Yeah. And then you have to ask yourself the question, do these guys actually pay attention to these stats? We are all over the. Do they actually care? Does it count for them? Yeah, I mean, but, you know, I mean, Lombardy is, It's, it's a monument. To give it away to a teammate, that's a bit too much. You know, I mean, I remember, I mean, this was in Belgium when, When Walt Van Aert gave Kent Wavelgam away, which is not a monument to Christophe Laporte. And it was. I mean, it was unbelievable in Belgium. Now, not that Pogacha cares about this, but that's also a way he, he doesn't win is that he gets away with a teammate and he gift, he gifts it to a teammate. I don't see it happening, but it's not impossible.

[Spencer Martin]

I don't. I would be, I would be beside myself. But I do think that that is the number one way he finishes this, this race uninjured and does not win is he gifts it to a teammate.

[Johan Berniel]

Yeah. If he, but if he's not gifting.

[Spencer Martin]

Trey Valet, like, he's not gifting this.

[Johan Berniel]

Another, Another. Another scenario could be. I mean, you know, I think until two years ago, probably people were still considering that as a potential scenario, is that he goes too early and he doesn't make it because he runs out of energy. That's not happening.

[Spencer Martin]

No, no. And I guess it did happen this year at Amstel, but the, these harder courses, it's. It's easier to stay away.

[Johan Berniel]

Yeah. I think Amstel was a special, special situation because he came off Flanders and Rube, which are hard races and are completely different way of cycling, you know, and he got into Amstel kind of, kind of a bit the same as when he came from Canada back to, to Gali and, you know, was caught in the time trial. Not, not exactly the same, but still, you know, I, I, yeah, I mean, he's not running out of energy.

[Spencer Martin]

I've forgotten the stat. People did not give him enough credit for that because almost no one ever wins Roubaix and Amstel in the same year in, in years that they abut each other. Because I think George talked about it when we did our post Amstel show. You're just beat up. You're physically beat up. It, It's. People made a lot about.

[Johan Berniel]

He was second to Dubai.

[Spencer Martin]

Second. I mean, I think, wow. Van Art's one of the only people to even finish Top five in both. And Pagachar was second in both of them. That's.

[Johan Berniel]

Yeah. And he.

[Spencer Martin]

Really impressive.

[Johan Berniel]

Yeah.

[Spencer Martin]

He won Flanders, second at Roubaix, second at Amstel, and then wins Liege, Flesh.

[Johan Berniel]

Flash, Balloon, and Liege.

[Spencer Martin]

Yeah. So he did end up recovering. But the thing is, you're gonna. Let's say that happens. You're gonna have Del Toro sitting. If. If Evanopole and Pidcock are chasing Del Toro sitting right with them. You probably don't want to do that.

[Johan Berniel]

Yeah. Yeah. I. I think. I think it's gonna mean, you know, it. There's no reason why there would not be a different scenario. You know, we saw in the world sun, the road racing, Kigali, it was him and then the rest. And Remco was the best of the rest. Euro championships, same thing. It's the same riders. It's the same course more. I mean, it's harder. You know, it's going to be the same situation. Spencer. I. I can't see that change in. In a couple of weeks.

[Spencer Martin]

And I'm just trying to anticipate questions people might have. So why don't. When Pagacha attacks, why don't people behind just chase hard? Johan, there's many of them. There's one of Pagacha. Why can't they catch him?

[Johan Berniel]

I mean, why can't they catch them? I think, first of all, first of all, I mean, the only one who is, you know, once Pugachar has the gap, not usually it's 40 minutes, 40 seconds to a minute. That's the time that these guys need to take their breath to recover and try to find their speed again. Mostly it's been Remco, right? So Remco got, you know, beaten down, and then he kind of recovers physically, but especially also mentally. And then he keeps going and it stays around a minute. But then Remco, who wants to ride with Remco, because everybody knows that on the next climb, Remco is going to.

[Spencer Martin]

Try to drop them, which he's done the last.

[Johan Berniel]

Which he has done and which he will try to do again.

[Spencer Martin]

So. Y.

[Johan Berniel]

So, yeah, I mean, it's. I mean, listen, it's. It's a dominant performance of. Of Pulachar race after year, race after race. But, man, how frustrating must it be? I mean, people say it's boring. I don't find it boring. I enjoy. I enjoy it. But how frustrating must it be for all these other riders and teams? Like, okay, what are we going to do today? What should we do to Try and have a win. Nothing works. Because if you look around, I mean, you look. Look after Pugacha, there's Del Toro, there's Jay vine, there's Adam Yates, there's, you know, all these other guys. Not much. Not much they can do.

[Spencer Martin]

No. And then you get. You get. You get people racing for second because you're so dominant.

[Johan Berniel]

Yeah.

[Spencer Martin]

So they're not going to pull. Also, I don't feel like this gets talked about enough that the race is so hard before his attack comes. Yeah, there's no one has anything left to chase with. Like, they're on their knees by the time the attack comes. On that topic, European Championships, any critiques for Belgium there? What did you think of those tactics?

[Johan Berniel]

I mean, yes, yes and no. I would say they were a bit overconfident. The only thing I could see they could have done differently was that they made the race hard until Pogaccia was isolated, which is, of course, you know, it's an objective. But then. Then, you know, you're spending so much of your guys to isolate him that it's basically against one or two or three other leaders from other countries or other teams. What does he do? He goes. And, you know, I think the mistake the Belgians have made, if I. You know, I mean, it's easy to say it afterwards, but once. Once there was this group and there was four Belgians, I think four Belgians, and Pogaccia was by himself, and there was still a few French guys. They. I mean, they kept pulling. They shouldn't have kept pulling. They should have tried to send somebody.

[Spencer Martin]

Yeah.

[Johan Berniel]

You know, like a French. And then would it have mattered? I don't think so. Spencer and Bogacha would have attacked anyway and dropped the guys who were up front, you know, but that's the only thing they could have tried differently. You know, it's. It's. There was not much they could do. You know, I saw when Remco got second, Seychelles got third, who was for Scaroni, fourth, you know, but. And I saw Remco. I mean, he was obviously. I mean, you know, Remco is. If he doesn't win, he's not happy, you know, and that's fair. I mean, he wants to win. But if you're second in both the World Championships and the European Championship behind Pugachar, you have to accept that. That's the situation, unfortunately. But Remco said, yeah, you know, there's progress, because it's the first time I can. I can follow his attack. I mean, yeah, okay. You did it for one minute. It was probably like a. It was a seven kilometer climb when, when today attacked, was maybe 5K to go. There was still at least 12 minutes to go in that effort. And you did it for one minute. So that's not really following an attack. I mean, he tried to follow, but he kind of blew up a bit. The proof is that Sechas came back to him and took a pull straight away. So. But on the other hand, also credits to Remco that he's able to recover from this and then keep going and then, you know, keep the distance. Because from the moment he had 40 seconds, it went to a minute and then it kind of was fluctuating. So I'm asking myself, okay, is.

[Spencer Martin]

Is it.

[Johan Berniel]

Is it because Remco is at a really high level and he probably is, but it's also probably because Pugach are now, by now has figured out exactly how he has to manage that minute gap, because it seems like once he has that minute, he is completely in control of his effort. And that's what, in my opinion, is so frustrating. Obviously the riders don't see that during the race, but they watch these images afterwards and they say, what is going? I mean, this guy is completely in control. He's not dying.

[Spencer Martin]

I'm glad we didn't do a show on Euro Champs, because I was losing my mind, because do you know how many times on the commentary I heard, isolate Piga, who gives a shit if he's isolated?

[Johan Berniel]

They've done this. They've tried to do the same thing in the Tour. I mean, have. Look, I mean, the Belgians did what they. And you know, you have to use your guys, what they're. What they're there for. Right? But Visma did the same thing in. In.

[Spencer Martin]

In the Tour, to great success. You know, I mean, I'm glad they're copying those tactics.

[Johan Berniel]

Okay. Hey, there's no UAE left. Okay, I'm going. And it was only Jonas who was there.

[Spencer Martin]

But let's say Pagachar was not isolated.

[Johan Berniel]

What was.

[Spencer Martin]

What would his teammates be doing? They would have been on the front doing exactly what Belgium was doing.

[Johan Berniel]

Exactly.

[Spencer Martin]

And Johan, dude. So to isolate him, this is what drives me the craziest. So how do you isolate someone? You make the race hard. If you make the race hard, who is that helping the strongest rider in the race. And you're hurting everybody else. That's like, yeah, I don't. I should. There should be a flowchart. Is Tad or his team on the front? If not, get off the front.

[Johan Berniel]

The thing is, the thing is also, Spencer, what else can they do? That's the question. What else can they do? Let UAE or. Or whatever, or UE or Slovenia in the championships do all the work. Then it's basically everybody's waiting for Pogac to attack and they're going to get dropped anyways. Or have a negative race and let a breakaway go and they can't catch them anymore. Also not likely to happen.

[Spencer Martin]

What you have. And I understand why this doesn't happen and I wouldn't do it either. But once he's isolated, if everyone gets off the front and they say, all right, Tata, you figured this out and people are attacking and the only person to ever respond is Tadeh Pagachar, you will beat him. That won't happen, obviously, because you'd have to sit back and allow other people to attack without responding yourself. Yeah, yeah, yeah, we. I guess we should. We'll probably be having the same conversation tomorrow. But that's. That's what's been so impressive about his dominance. Like, he's been part time in with Slovenia and you get to see him isolated. You're not going to see him isolated. Yeah, with uae, like it's. Yeah.

[Johan Berniel]

Well, I mean, and also, Spencer, you know, I mean, I've seen, you know, people start to say, okay, dominance obviously starts to annoy people and it's always the same thing. And I can understand on the one hand. And then, you know, there's also. There starts to be a certain, you know, doubts and questions. How can somebody be so much stronger than the rest? And I've said this already many times on several shows. You know, I mean, this guy, from the moment he was 17, was really a super talent. And I got information now, really reliable information that. And we have. I mean, it's easy to see also if you look at videos and pictures and the two first Tour de France, he won, let's say the first one was against Roglic in that time, in the last time trial, you could say, okay, you know, he. It was a bit of a surprise.

[Spencer Martin]

But he was there.

[Johan Berniel]

He was second. So for a reason. You know, it's not like they were just dragging him around.

[Spencer Martin]

And he lost time early in that race with the flat tire too.

[Johan Berniel]

Yeah. But he got it back. He got it back over the parachute because I, I think he dropped everybody. Seriously. But anyways, coming to my point, the first two times he won the Tour, if you look at the way he won and the way he was physically, and I now have the confirmation which we suspected already. This guy was not really optimized. He was not completely living a life of a top professional rider in the sense that you can see he was a few kilos heavier. Apparently his training structure was not super good. Nutrition was off and he won the Tour twice. And then he lost the third time to Jonas, in my opinion because of a mistake he made in that stage where they attacked him with Roglic and Jonas on the way to the Galibier. The fourth time he didn't win. Jonas was a lot better and also he came back from a wrist injury. Injury. But man, since then, this is different. I mean, the more I think, I mean it's been public, you know, that they changed trainers and. Or changed trainers and does a lot more nutrition wise and man, it's. He. He stepped up his level to his maximum potential now. But thinking that he won the Tour twice being. I'm not going to say semi professional but not 100 professional, that. That's actually scary to see that he was able to win the Tour twice under with that kind of efforts or that kind of dedication. I mean, it's.

[Spencer Martin]

It.

[Johan Berniel]

I'm going to try to find pictures and we can, we can insert them here. I have pictures of him when he was 19 years old and he did the Tour of Spain in his first year professional and he finished third in GC and won three stages. I have these pictures. We're going to publish them here and then we'll put a picture next to it from the way Pogacha is now and you will see the transformation physically. And it tends to happen right when, when a big young talent turns probably they're not completely formed, they're not completely defined. He was still young, he was 19, so. But now, man, this is just a killing machine. It's crazy.

[Spencer Martin]

Yeah, I know exactly what you mean about the Vuelta. I re watched that race recently and his physical differences do stand out a lot. And also it's impressive that a lot of people come along and have initial success like that. I'm thinking of a certain Frenchman who had a big Tour de France win when he was young and then just never take the step up, you know, it's just like, well, this is pretty sweet. I'm gonna be like this. Pagachar is what happens if someone keeps improving. What? Someone asked a question in the chat that's pretty good, Michael. And it's a sister question to the one I asked. So if Remco is better than Pigacha in the time trial, why Is it so challenging for Remco to catch Pagacha when Pagacha attacks solo in the road race?

[Johan Berniel]

Completely different effort. Completely different. Yeah. Time trial is very consistent, always the same. There's no ups and downs in your rhythm, in your power output. You're constant. And Remco is a master at that. In a race, in a normal road race, it's completely different. There's attacks, there's, you know, the slow down, then you go over your limit again. You have to follow the peloton. Right. I mean, you can't be in control of your effort. And, and on top of that.

[Spencer Martin]

I.

[Johan Berniel]

Think Remco, that's why he's such a great time trialist, is the master at the constant effort. But he tends to have a bit more problems with accelerations, which obviously Pogacha is completely the opposite. He can accelerate and he can maintain that acceleration and actually can also sprint. Remco has improved, but he's definitely not at the same level when there's changes in rhythm as Pogaccia. And also, you know, if there's a few of those already before the real effort, where basically the critical point, let's say this climb, everybody identifies, okay, this is where it's going to happen. And there's been a few times before already you've been in the red or close to the red. Some riders recover amazingly from that during the race and others don't.

[Spencer Martin]

Yeah, I think just a few points, I think that's all true. And what hanging out with Bradley Wiggins and Lance Armstrong taught me, I don't understand why it is. But time trialing standalone races is very different than like just being good time trialing in a Grand Tour. But we should note Remco is not on his time trial bike in a road race. And that man is very fast on a time trial bike. Freakishly fast. Also, by the time Pagat attacks Remco, I don't think people on TV recognize this, especially if you're just dropping into a race. They've been racing for four, four hours or more and there's that much more load in their legs. That's very different than a time trial where most of These efforts are 20 to 45 minutes versus a multi hour long effort on after writing for multiple hours at a very hard pace. So there are like factual differences between the two things.

[Johan Berniel]

Yeah. And then also, Spencer, I keep coming back to the same thing. You know, we've been talking about this already several times and I don't mean I just pulled up here. I Mean, because we've analyzed this, or basically, I'm going off Strava, but, you know, it looks like I'm blown away by the energy expenditure. I mean, basically, the calories that Pogachar burns through a race or a stage compared to many of his rivals. Whereas he's on the front, he does sometimes breakaways of 30, 40, 50 kilometers, and he still spends, on average 20 to 25% less than his closest rivals. So here, for example, I have. This is. What's the race he won? Trevali Varinese. Right. So he did 196km, 43 average, 3400 calories. Now, let's take a rider like, for example, there's a bunch of riders here. Just. I don't know if he finished. Ben Healy. Did Ben Healy finish?

[Spencer Martin]

Let's see.

[Johan Berniel]

Here we go. Ben Healy finished the race. So Pogacha had 3500, Ben Healy 4150.

[Spencer Martin]

Interesting.

[Johan Berniel]

600 calories more. And he's been in the wheels, man. Healy. And Pogacha was off the front. And it's with everybody the same, you know, and I often keep an eye on it. And I know it's not exactly scientific and it's not exact numbers, but, you know, if you go off Strava, it's an estimate. Right. Based on what you weigh, the power you put out, heart rate, maybe, and, you know, whatever other parameters. But the Strava formula is basically the same. So if you measure off the same. I think it's not precise, but it's a pretty good. I think there's another rider here. I think this guy was more or less in the front. Tobias Johanneson. He was, I think, here. So Pogacha. So Johanneson was, I think, fifth, sixth, seventh. So basically was in there, came back at the last moment, sprinted 1,000 calories more than Pogachar, 4,605 calories, which means that Pugachar, when everybody is close to their limit, still cruising.

[Spencer Martin]

And he's clear, very clearly has an efficient pedal stroke, like that's.

[Johan Berniel]

And also Spencer in Target Interrupt. I think he's also compared to these other. His direct rivals, with maybe the exclusion of Tom Pitcock. I think he's also the best in the bunch of.

[Spencer Martin]

Like, I was just gonna say that. Yeah.

[Johan Berniel]

You know, finding positions.

[Spencer Martin]

Notice it when you watch it.

[Johan Berniel]

You know, he does not. He does not spend any unnecessary energy, which obviously all adds up.

[Spencer Martin]

Yep. I mean, you just watch. You can just take screenshots of the peloton and you'll See, Remco is putting out a ton more power because he's just in a less advantageous position. We got a few juicy topics coming up, but before we do that, Trey Valet, you mentioned it. Why. Why are we doing this, Johan? So let's just. Let's role play. You're in the breakaway at that race. The best rider in the world comes up to the breakaway, is a very good racer. Where would you put yourself?

[Johan Berniel]

Obviously on his wheel, but you know, he had Del Toro pulling right because del Toro, I think del Toro went after. Was it Victor Lafay, I think from decathlon. There was another writer there. I don't remember who it was. And was Quinn Simmons, I think. Was it Quinn Simmons? Yeah.

[Spencer Martin]

Quinn Simmons was the strongest guy in that move.

[Johan Berniel]

Yeah, yeah. And so Pogacha comes and then. Yeah, I mean, you know, it's also. It was a bit. I think it was a bit coming together of circumstances, but he got away on the downhill and there was only one rider who could bring him back. It was Quinn Simmons, because he does have the power to match that effort on the flat or on the downhill. But then, you know, you have the hesitation behind. Of course, Del Toro is not going to fall. Not work. Going to work. Lafay was probably on the limit and Quinn Simmons, you know, at some point had to look back and say, hey, guys, I'm not going to do all the work. And, you know, he was gone.

[Spencer Martin]

Is no one radioing up? Quinn Tattoo is coming up. Get on his wheel. I just. I felt like Chris Horner. I was like, look at these knuckleheads. You could see it coming before it.

[Johan Berniel]

It happened, I think. I think, you know, Trevally Var was probably the more. The most tactical win of Pogachar rather than pure black strength Lex and just riding away from everybody. It was more savvy, I think.

[Spencer Martin]

Yeah. I. Yeah. And maybe they were distracted by Del Toro because the big narrative was, oh, we got you, is going to give this one to Del Toro. But still, man, get on his wheel, folks, if that is there. Get on his wheel. Remco is actually getting really good at this. It's.

[Johan Berniel]

He's.

[Spencer Martin]

He's improving quite a lot at just parking himself right on that wheel. So we're going to do Derek G Last because that's the most interesting one. Sram, we talked about this. I felt like for hours on end in June, but the UCI had some. We'll just try to sum this up. They banned certain gear ratios over a certain amount. Essentially the only way to Hit that ratio was to have a 10 tooth sprocket on the back. The only company that has a 10 tooth sprout, they did this to try to lower speeds on descent.

[Johan Berniel]

Yeah. So Spencer. So basically, I mean it was, it was not a rule yet, but so the UCI was trying to impose a restriction on the gears and they were going to run a test and what is Tour de Guangxi or something?

[Spencer Martin]

Yeah, which is the, which is the.

[Johan Berniel]

Race that they own or they organize. You know, it could have been a test. I don't think it would have been a real test because it's not dangerous there. They're racing on highways so nothing's gonna happen no matter how fast they go. Plus the peloton is already tired now. Nobody's fighting for position. It's, it's, it's.

[Spencer Martin]

Well now though, then it turned into a super important race after they made this decision to do this.

[Johan Berniel]

Yeah, yeah. I mean, because so, so the, the, the discussion was. So it was going to be 54, 11 is the maximum or that kind of distance. And so SRAM filed a complaint. Because SRAM now, since a few years already, they do not produce any more cassettes starting within 11. And to get to that ratio per. No. Meters per rpm, SRAM riders would have been at a disadvantage a few centimeters. But still, you know, at that level it's a disadvantage. Which personally, I think personally it's, it would not have made a difference in the results. But SRAM has used that as one of their arguments. But I think more, more than that, they've used the fact that the SRAM system, meaning you would have had to have, I think, was it 5010 or 5110, I don't remember, would be deemed illegal for the UCI and it had a negative impact on their brand and people were starting to say, okay, well these gears are UCI illegal. And it would, I mean if you've, if you listen to SRAM's explanation, it would have cost them at least two years to change their whole manufacturing process, which I can understand. It's a huge investment. So what did SRAM do? They filed a complaint with. I was surprised when I saw it, but it actually makes sense, especially if you want to speed up things. Apparently there's an organization, I never heard of it, but it's called the Belgian Competition Authority, which is an organization that oversees commercial competition law, which for example, if you make abuse of a dominant position in business, you can get called back and say, okay, you can't do this. So without going into Details. SRAM filed a complaint and that authority, which apparently has the same power as a normal court, has deemed this test illegal, at the disadvantage of sram. And SRAM won their complaints. Now, of course, the UCI, who would be surprised, has already said that they will appeal it. But personally I don't think, I don't think that, you know, working on safety, that's not where you have to look at it. There's a lot of other things that can be done, should be done before thinking about limiting, limiting the gears. Plus, I think that the UCI needs to realize, and everybody knows that I'm not neutral. And you know, the UCI is absolutely not one of my favorite organizations. Right, the opposite. But I think that they cannot. I mean, they are the governing body of the sport of cycling. The sport of cycling is on bicycles and is heavily depending on the bicycle industry. And they are constantly going against these brands and against these developments and against these manufacturers who they need, you know, and SRAM is now become one of the dominant players of components. So, you know, if I read the statement and the complaint of sram, they've reached out many times to the UCI. They've never gotten engaged in any conversation, never have been consulted. So, yeah, that's for the moment, that's it. On the gear restrictions, it's not going forward.

[Spencer Martin]

Why did this happen? Why did the UCI think that this was a good idea? Because I would tell you, a 15 minute consultation with an attorney would have told you you're absolutely going to get sued by SRAM and they're going to win because this is a ridiculous rule. You're not giving them time to modify their product.

[Johan Berniel]

Yeah, well, yes, Spencer, you're right, but the UCI and many or most or almost all of the sports organizations have been and are used to get away with whatever they want, meaning that normal civil law doesn't seem to concern them. Now this is one example. It's, it's a precedent of, in my opinion, many more issues that will come. Not just in terms of equipment, but, you know, I mean, the sports regulations and sports law is, I mean, these rules are written by these federations and are just accepted by everybody without being tested, without being accountable to any authority. And there's many laws. And personally, I mean, I won't go into detail, but I have had to deal with it in the U.S. postal case and concerning my ban. And whatever has happened is one thing, but if you look at it legally, it's a joke. It's a joke. They can do whatever they want with whoever they want. And they obtain whatever they want to obtain because it's the Court of Arbitration for Sports who has been deciding. So now maybe in the future that might change.

[Spencer Martin]

The fact that I found out that they hadn't talked to SRAM about this and hadn't worked with SRAM on. Does not reflect very well on the UCI's internal decision making.

[Johan Berniel]

Well, and then also Spencer, unless I'm mistaken. Sorry, unless I'm mistaken. But I would need to check. But I am pretty sure that, I mean, at least in the past, for a very long time, and I think it's still the case that one of the main sponsors of the UCI is Shimano.

[Spencer Martin]

Yes.

[Johan Berniel]

Who were, who was not affected by this new regulation.

[Spencer Martin]

No, but that almost. That's like a joke because that, but that makes it so clear to a court that this not okay. And of course they were always going to rule for Shram's insurance favor. And apparently the UCI does not care. But no, it shows you they're not thinking of.

[Johan Berniel]

They don't care.

[Spencer Martin]

They not think that this was going to happen or.

[Johan Berniel]

Well, I mean, they don't care that. I mean, the IOC doesn't care about being sued and because they usually get away with what they want and if, you know, if a certain rule is not accepted, then they change the rule until it's accepted. So, you know, but no, I think, I think I would, I think, be.

[Spencer Martin]

Pissing off SRAM if I was UCI.

[Johan Berniel]

Yeah, that's a big player. I personally think from, from a performance stand point of view, it wouldn't have really mattered whether you were on shimano or, or SRAM. It's 2, 3 cm difference. Doesn't really matter. I think in time trials it was, it was free anyway. You know, it was only for road racing. I mean, I think the key was to check if the speeds would go down. Especially, you know, when you're, when you, when you have false flat downhill, you know, 2, 3%, that's where the speeds are extremely high. And the bigger gear, I mean, if you have to stop pedaling because you run out of gears, the speeds go down. If you keep pedaling because you have a 58 chainring or a 60 chainring, obviously that makes things more dangerous. I do think, however, that whatever they wanted to test would have been useless. If you tested in the Tour of Guangxi in China, would have been, I mean, the results would have been, you know, not worth considering.

[Spencer Martin]

Can you imagine being a SRAM team rolling up to the Tour of Gwangju and then you're on significantly smaller gears and Shimano teams. What a joke.

[Johan Berniel]

Yeah. Well, I mean then also Spencer, you know, I think there's. Right now there's two teams who care about three teams who care about Tour. Guangji, it's Coffee this, you know, X and Total Energies. Nobody has Guang Chi is a race where basically, I mean, somebody else is going to win. Not maybe, okay, maybe Johanneson could win for, you know, X. I don't know, depending on the course. I haven't seen it. But it's a race that, you know, you have to go because it's a ucr. It's a World Tour race, which I don't understand why it's a World Tour race. I mean, but.

[Spencer Martin]

And then, you know, whose World Tour is it?

[Johan Berniel]

Yeah.

[Spencer Martin]

And it's their race.

[Johan Berniel]

It makes no sense. It makes no sense. But it's something that most of the riders have. I mean the guys who go there, you know, they have to go. They don't really want to go. If they have to go, okay, they're going to make the best out of it. But it's a relaxed atmosphere and then there's going to be five to seven riders who had, you know, maybe some injuries and that still are motivated and see the opportunity to do a great race and go for gc. That's it. There's nothing else to do. Nothing else to this race.

[Spencer Martin]

Speaking of the UCI, speaking of gc, Derek G. Pretty good GC writer revealed. So before we even get into that, Israel Premier Tech, if you've not, if you've noticed we've not mentioned them because they've not been at any of these races and they're not going to be at Lombardia. They were barred from Giro del Amelia. They dropped out of the remaining Italian races. Dropped out of Lombardia voluntarily. Yeah. No points. Implications, I would imagine the writers and the staff said this is not worth it, it's not safe and their safety cannot be guaranteed. On top of this, this got me a little bit by surprise. They're rebranding. Kind of like what we talked about during the vault, that they needed a rebrand. I believe they're changing their country of registration away from Israel likely to Canada. Let's just call the team factor Premier Tech. It will be something like that. The thing that really shocked me, Johan Sylvan Adams is stepping back from a public facing role. Presumably he'll still fund the team. I don't know how long he's going to keep doing that. If he's not really a Public face of the team. So that happened.

[Johan Berniel]

Well, I mean, I think, you know, okay. I mean it's obviously some, I think it's something that he kind of, I mean he doesn't have to. But you know, I think this guy really likes cycling. Right. So he, if he funds the team, he's going to officially step back. Whether that's in reality going to be obviously he's going to have less involvement but by the way, pretty good cyclists. Sylvan Adams, I saw he got second last week. He got second at the world championships Masters on the track and he's world champ. He's already world champion on the road a few times I think in his age category. So I mean he's, he's, I mean I think he's, I don't know if he's, Is he in mid-60s or something? Yeah.

[Spencer Martin]

So he's, he's very fit. I.

[Johan Berniel]

Pretty, very fit. It's pretty good cyclist.

[Spencer Martin]

Pretty good, pretty good rider. Almost as good as. Or Jonas is almost as good as him. But you see him at the Tour. I was going to bring this up. You see him at the Tour, he rides every day. He's. It looks cool, right? If you had all, if you had the money to do it, that's what you would do. You, you're riding every morning in a different place in France. You're in the middle of a team at the race. Do you think he's going to keep, what did you make from the statement? Is he going to be around doing that anymore? How's that going to work?

[Johan Berniel]

I personally think initially he's definitely going to fund the team and there's no other way now if this team wants to exist next year and the year after this. For the moment there's no time to find an extra sponsor and there's been multi year commitments already with certain, with certain writers. So he's gonna have to keep funding the team, in my opinion.

[Spencer Martin]

Well, they might.

[Johan Berniel]

But yeah, I mean Derek G. Yeah. Maybe you want to summarize. Derek G. Put out.

[Spencer Martin]

They might have 30 million extra euros.

[Johan Berniel]

To work with because Spencer. No.

[Spencer Martin]

So Derek G. Released a statement yesterday. Little bit, I would say passive. It was written in the passive voice. Little bit tough to parse. But the, the I guess overarching theme is he was saying I'm leaving the team because I, I, I couldn't get along with certain people at the team and because of ethical concerns, not because of money. Specifically said and then revealed that he's being sued for 30 million euros by Israel Premier Tech for breaking his contract. Why? Why is this happening? Johan? Hey, why are we hearing from Derek G and why is Israel Premier?

[Johan Berniel]

Yeah, I assume twofold, I think. Well, first of all, I had heard already that. I don't know if it's the team or if it's. Sylvan Adams personally is suing Derek G for 30 million. Not 13-3-030.

[Spencer Martin]

Yeah.

[Johan Berniel]

Because of, you know, commercial damages. Meaning that, you know, because. Because Derek G is leaving. He's losing a sponsor or something, or losing 10 million on sponsorship over three years. I don't know if that. If that was the case. Derrick G is not going to pay 30 million or nobody else is going to pay 30 million to Israel Premier Tech. There might be a little bit of negotiation going on, but I'm pretty sure that the legal people around Derek G have done their homework. And even if you have a contract, if there are certain things happening in the team, in your working environment, that makes it impossible for you to carry on your job, you have a legal ground to terminate your contract and even leave for zero euros, that's going to be a matter of lawyers and courts. And ultimately, will they go to court or not? That's not a question. I think it's not great for Derek G, because if you have to deal with all that stuff until it's resolved, it puts your career on hold. Because, you know, he's not going to have a peaceful off season. He's not going to have a peaceful preparation. And I think until there's some kind of decision, it's also impossible for Dek G to officially sign with the new team, although he might have done that already privately, and especially not announce it. I mean, we hear everywhere that Derek G was is going to ineos. Right. And I think that's probably. That probably makes sense for. For him and for Ineos. But it's going to come down to lawyers negotiating, in my opinion, and try to avoid a court case. Otherwise this may drag on and we may be at the start of the Giro next year. And Derek G has still not announced where he's going to race.

[Spencer Martin]

No. So here's his exact quote. In an irreparable relationship with the team principal, whom I would understand to police to be Sylvan Adams, as well as serious concerns related to racing for the team, both from a safety and personal belief standpoint, that weighed heavily on my conscience. If he was taking my advice, I would not have put that in. Because now, whichever team you sign for, are you saying you don't have Any ethical concerns about the team sponsor of that team? Because if it's ineos, that's not going to look great. But Johan, am I misremembering, but wasn't Wout Van Art being sued by his team for years and then raced for Visma in the meantime?

[Johan Berniel]

Yeah, and he lost and he had to pay a big, big amount of money.

[Spencer Martin]

Did G just continue to race while this suit is going on? Yeah.

[Johan Berniel]

Well, I mean, the thing with the difference here, I think what Derek G. Needs to consider is that Walt von Aert was getting sued by an ex professional cyclist who had a small professional team, was called Nick Nuggins, ex winner of Tour of Flanders.

[Spencer Martin]

Tour of Flanders winner. Yeah.

[Johan Berniel]

It's not the same if you're being sued by Sylvan Adams, who has a lot of money, a lot of time and a lot of. A lot of good lawyers. It's not the same thing.

[Spencer Martin]

Now, now more time on his hands too.

[Johan Berniel]

Yeah, yeah. So I think it's probably going to be negotiated. And on the other hand, then also what we need to. I mean, I'm just speaking hypothetically. Right. But if it's true that Derek G. Has made an agreement already without announcing it officially with ineos, these people also have really good people with a lot of money and a lot of time to countersue or to negotiate. So I think personally that that's going to be part of the deal already. Is that okay? You know, you terminate your contract because you personally have decided that there's no way you can stay on that team because certain things have happened. You sign with us and we'll take care of everything behind the scenes, that's probably what's going to happen.

[Spencer Martin]

You might be a better team manager than me because if I. If a guy I was pursuing was getting sued for over 30 million euros, I might say now. Now, who are you?

[Johan Berniel]

What.

[Spencer Martin]

What agreement did we have? I. Because G could get hung out to dry here if.

[Johan Berniel]

Yeah.

[Spencer Martin]

If he just has. Yes, it's a handshake agreement.

[Johan Berniel]

It's true. It's not a. It's not a handshake agreement, Spencer.

[Spencer Martin]

But is it, you know, these contracts that they sign that are agreements to sign a contract at a later date?

[Johan Berniel]

Yeah. Letter of intent. Is that.

[Spencer Martin]

Or is it a real contract?

[Johan Berniel]

Letter of intent. Yeah, but there are letters of intent that are binding agreements.

[Spencer Martin]

What? Tell that to Filippo. Ghana? No. Didn't he get rug pulled on that?

[Johan Berniel]

Yeah. And I just saw. Actually, you know what? Today I read about the same situation. We've talked about him already. So it's completely different. But the Belgian writer Edouard Plunkart, who was on Alpecin and had signed for Soudal to be lead out guy for Merlier.

[Spencer Martin]

Yeah.

[Johan Berniel]

Is apparently now going back to opposite. Interesting. Yeah. They negotiated an agreement. I think so. I mean it's, it's never set in.

[Spencer Martin]

Stone, you know, I mean we should say. I don't think, I don't think Israel Premier tech's getting 30 million euros out of Derek G. I don't think a court is going to be, I don't know, I just feel like courts and you're seeing over and over again in the EU that something I'm a little fuzzy on. I don't think this is in Israeli courts. I don't think it's in Canadian. What determines where this court case happens?

[Johan Berniel]

I mean in this case, I mean Derek G. Is a Canadian. Is the team Canadian right now?

[Spencer Martin]

No, I think it's Israeli at the moment.

[Johan Berniel]

Huh. Okay. You know, if, if it would be European writer, I would say it's the European Court of Human Rights that ultimately decides. But in this, for the moment, if you look at it and again this is again, one of the situations where I'm curious to see what the UCI will do here is that it's the UCI who has to approve the transfer of their G. And if you, if there's a transfer of a cyclist who has a running contract, there needs to be an agreement between the three parties, the rider, the old team and the new team, which is not the case, you know, then the question is, okay, how hard can you negotiate and force one of the parties to come to an agreement. But in theory, if the UCI follows their own self written rules, they cannot approve the transfer of Derek G. Unless Derek G. Obtains by a civil court which is ruling over labor law, which in theory supersedes the sports law.

[Spencer Martin]

But who is labor law?

[Johan Berniel]

Yeah, well, if you would be European, I would say it's any European court or ultimately the Supreme European Court in this case. I don't know, I mean I think it's Canadian.

[Spencer Martin]

But if I was a professional cyclist and I, I'm American but I'd be living in Girona or in France and I'm, let's say I'm Matthew Bricatello and I'm paying taxes in France. Is that actually where it's being?

[Johan Berniel]

We're just trying to guess here, Spencer. I am pretty sure when Derek G. And his agents and lawyers have sent this letter and terminate the contract, they have thought about all this. So they know what to do.

[Spencer Martin]

Yeah. I would not want to go to a US Court with a labor law situation. And I would guess this line, both from a safety and personal belief standpoint, is to try to get like a. If he can say, I just can't ride for this team because of what I believe, wherever this court case is happening, they must be hoping that's enough to get him out of his life.

[Johan Berniel]

Well, and then I read something that was very telling. I don't have it here now. Let me see if I can find it. But I think at the end, in the last sentence, he says he uses the word makeup to explain the change of identity and the change of leadership. And he uses the word makeup. Did you see that somewhere in the last sentence of a statement?

[Spencer Martin]

No cosmetic structures.

[Johan Berniel]

Yeah. Okay. Because. Yeah. Cosmetic shift. Yeah. So meaning it's just for the face, but in reality, internally, nothing will change. In my. That's how I read it. Yeah.

[Spencer Martin]

This is get. We're getting quickly. Not us, but this is quickly getting into dicey territory, though, because.

[Johan Berniel]

Yeah. What.

[Spencer Martin]

What does that mean? You don't want to ride for a team. You don't like where the money's coming from? Because then. Then stuff starts to get uncomfortable really fast because.

[Johan Berniel]

Yeah, well, he's. Listen, there's one thing we know for sure is that Derek G. Is not going to ride for Premier Israel, Premier Tech or whatever it's named next year. No. Now.

[Spencer Martin]

But that's the weirdest, weirdest part of this whole thing.

[Johan Berniel]

When will he race and for who will he race? That's the. That's the question.

[Spencer Martin]

But what's the end game for the team? That's what I don't fully understand. He's not coming back. You just need to get the biggest buyout possible from.

[Johan Berniel]

Well, I mean, you know, you can start high and try to get something out of it. And then also, to me, it's. I mean, listen, the fact this. This claim of. Yeah, we. We're missing 30 million euros or dollars in potential sponsorship because their G is leaving. That's complete. You know, I mean, Derek G. Is not going to bring a $30 million sponsor on board. He's a good writer, but he's not a superstar yet, at least. So to me, that kind of huge amount is to say, okay, you know what, if you want to play, we'll play this hard, and I will mess with you as long as I can. That's the message I'm getting out of that.

[Spencer Martin]

Yeah. I mean, I may or may not have Heard that that was said explicitly inside the team too.

[Johan Berniel]

Yeah, I didn't. But that's what. That's how. What I read between the lines.

[Spencer Martin]

Yeah. Well, thanks, Johan. This is officially the longest episode of Outcomes ever. But. And we'll be back tomorrow, so we're ready to go. Anything else before we take off?

[Johan Berniel]

No, let's. Yeah, make sure we're turning on our. Our live stream at least with, I would say, you know, to be safe. 100k to go.

[Spencer Martin]

100K? I think. Yeah.

[Johan Berniel]

Yeah, if we want to see some action. You never know with Pugacha. I don't think he's gonna go with 100k to go, but yeah, I'm gonna start watching with 100k to go.

[Spencer Martin]

Well, if someone wants to beat them, they might have to go with 100k to go, so there could be action whether Gotcha wants it to be or not. Okay, thanks and we'll talk tomorrow.

[Johan Berniel]

Okay.

[Spencer Martin]

All right, bye.

[Jeff Bridges]

Morning, Zoe. Got donuts.

[Dana]

Jeff Bridges, why are you still living above our garage?

[Jeff Bridges]

Well, I dig the mattress and I want to be in a team motor mobile commercial like you teach me. So.

[Johan Berniel]

Dana.

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[Spencer Martin]

Nice.

[Dana]

Jeffrey, you heard them.

[Jeff Bridges]

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[Johan Berniel]

To get the new iPhone 17 Pro on us with eligible traded in any condition.

[Jeff Bridges]

So what are we having for launch?

[Dana]

Dude, my work here is done.

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