← THEMOVE
THEMOVE
Will Tomorrow's Brutal Mountain Stage Decide La Vuelta? | Vuelta a España Stage 19 Analysis & Stage 20 Preview | THEMOVE+
00:26:58
Johan Bruyneel and Spencer Martin break down Jasper Philipsen's sprint to win Stage 19 of the Vuelta a España over Mads Pedersen in a tough uphill finish. They analyze Alpecin's unusual leadout strategy and how Jonas Vingegaard stole four seconds...
Loading summary
Transcript66 lines
- [00:00]
A
I mean, the lead out was amazing. Philipson, basically. And it was a slow sprint also, because until the last 200 meters it was slightly uphill and then it flattened out a little bit. So I would say impressive, impressive sprint from, from Philipson you can clearly see. And he also afterwards said in his interview that he's not in great shape during the half Vuelta already, but yet he wins three stages and maybe a fourth one in Madrid. So that's quite the comeback, I would say, you know, after his unfortunate crash in the Tour de France.
- [00:39]
B
Everybody, welcome back to the move. I'm Spencer Martin, I'm here with Johan Berniel. We are breaking down stage 19 of the Valta Espana before previewing tomorrow's incredibly critical mountain stage, the final GC stage, stage 20, which finishes atop the Bullo de Mundo, which is right outside Johan's back door. So he can give us some information on that. Just a quick rundown of today's stage 19. Pretty simple. One rider goes clear. Sleepy sprint stage. The the crosswinds did not really come to fruition with 60k to go, though there was a bonus sprint with time bonuses, or there's a sprint point with time bonuses, of course. The breakaway takes the six seconds for first. We're not quite sure what happened, but UAE seemed confused, didn't know it was there. Same thing with Tom Pitcock and Jonas Vinegar just goes to the front, rolls over, gets four point, he gets four seconds, he then eliminates. But think about that. That's like a 50% of the gap. That or 50% of the time that Joel Ometa took yesterday and probably spent six figures, hundreds of thousands of dollars refining that position, that time trial position, just to give half of it back up by not paying attention. 34k to go. There's some, a little bit of crosswind, some echelons. Jonas Finnegaard really attentive up front, like one of the first few riders in the first split. And Almeida's behind. Jay vine has to pay some back on. It was maybe not quite hard enough, even though it looked hard, was not quite hard enough because they go into the finish. And Jasper Phillips and Johan's pick for the stage just absolutely toasted. Everybody on the uphill sprint. Mads Patterson second, Ular third from Movistar. Movistar really putting a lot of power of energy into the lead out because they need a stage one at this Vuelta. They could not get close enough though. Johan as GC is unchanged. Johan, what was your takeaway of the day?
- [02:34]
A
Well, for me, obviously the event of the Day is the sprint with Philipson, but especially I would say the way Alpecin has orchestrated this approach. I don't know, I mean they, they obviously were the favorite, but it's. For me it's a bit unclear why these other teams were doing such a huge, huge lead out and Alpecin was just sitting back. I mean I, I rechecked the, the images and. And with 1.3km to go, there was not one single Alpecin rider in the top 40, which is crazy. And then they had. All of a sudden you could see there's four guys. I mean I know there's Richard and Eduard Plonkart and Philipson. I don't know who the other guy was but you know, they just come and Ricard just gets under the flag. He gets to first position or to almost to first position. And I mean the lead out was amazing. Philipson basically. And it was a slow sprint also because until the last 200 meters it was slightly uphill and then it flattened out a little bit. So I would say impressive, impressive sprint from Philipson you can clearly see. And he also afterwards said in his interview that he's not in great shape during the half Vuelta already, but yet he wins three stages and maybe a fourth one in Madrid. So that's quite the comeback I would say, you know, after his unfortunate crash in the Tour de France. But yeah, I mean, yeah, I don't know opposing they have this way of. They've really figured out how to get to the front at the last moment with four guys and I can't see any other team able to do that.
- [04:26]
B
You know, it's been like that all welter all season. Kind of like if you look at the sprints earlier this vta, they're nowhere to be seen in the last UK and then they just come up at the last second. I don't know if that's something we need to have. Maybe we need to have someone from the team on over the offseason. But they definitely seem to have popular popularized.
- [04:46]
A
You know, they're also. You have to be a bit lucky also. They were kind of lucky that. I mean first of all it was hard the approach to so that the speed was not super high. But you know, in which how many times will you have the situation that Ineos, for example is leading it out for Ben Turner, who's you know, not really one of the top favorites. Right. Even if he has won a stage already, but he's not one of the top sprinters. So the fact that Ghana was doing such a long pool was obviously great for them because it was a high speed and you know, it didn't really. And then when Ghana left, I don't know who was pulling then when Ghana left, when went off, was it. Was it Lotto who was up there? I think with Viviani. I don't, I don't remember who it was now, but. So all of a sudden it kind of gets together a bit and then you see they're coming on the left side and it was. I mean, it looks so easy if you see it from the helicopter. I'm pretty sure that, you know, it's easy to lose each other also, of course. But yeah, I mean, what a, What a, what a. What a difference. Also he won with, you know, against Peterson. This was an ideal sprint for Pedersen. I know, slower speed, but, you know, if you look at it, Philipson versus Pedersen, it's kind of logic has been respected. Right, that Phillipson wins.
- [06:17]
B
Yeah, I mean, he says he's not in shape. Pretty. Pretty tough sprint and he looks pretty dominant. So, I mean, yeah, he's probably going to win four. Four stages here. Not a bad comeback from a disappointing Tour de France where he only won one stage and had the leader's jersey before crashing out on stage three, I believe. Two stage.
- [06:37]
A
Yeah, three, three.
- [06:39]
B
But I mean, it's at this point there's no, there's no debate. Right. Jasper Phillipson is the best Grand Tour sprinter in the modern era or currently. I mean, the guy has 16 stage wins and Grand Tours never started this year to tell you. I believe behind only Pagachar and Roglich for active riders. Two ahead of W. Van Art and Chris Fr. So not. Not a bad Palmes.
- [07:04]
A
Yeah. Now listen, he's a great sprinter. He's, you know, with, with M. And with Milan and Philipson. I think those are the three. The three fastest sprinters. Right.
- [07:19]
B
Yeah. Merlier would be the only other one you'd say.
- [07:23]
A
But he just.
- [07:23]
B
The thing is he does not. He doesn't start Grand Tours at the same rate. He doesn't win at the same rate during Grand Tours. I mean, for Phillips and what. He's been in hibernation since stage eight of this race. Right. And that's not. A lot of sprinters can't do that, just go away. So suffer through the mountains, come back. Looks fantastic. Like he looked way better than I thought he would after suffering for 10 days.
- [07:46]
A
Yeah, yeah. But took a lot out of him. You could see he was really. I mean, he was on the Limit. And after the finish it took him quite a while to, to recover. But anyways, you know, who wouldn't be that exhausted, right? Stage 19 already in such a sprint.
- [08:04]
B
Yeah. What's going on with that team? Are they losing one of the title sponsors going in the next year?
- [08:10]
A
Well, they're losing the Koenink, so I, I don't know. I mean, they've lost quite a bit of riders also.
- [08:16]
B
You know, they, they lose.
- [08:17]
A
They're losing Edward Plunkard. They're using. They're losing Johnny Vermeers. They're using. They're losing Timo Killy. I just saw who switches to Visma. Good writer Sandra. Marissa goes to Q 36.5. So a lot of key domestics who are actually leaving because obviously they're getting great offers and Alpecin is not able to match them. I mean, they've invested a lot of their budget in Matthew Vanderpool in Philipson and Kaden Groves, which I think is the right thing to do. So. But anyways, I'm not too worried. I mean, they have, they have good young writers also who will step up. I think as far as I know for the moment, they have not found a replacement sponsor for the Koenig. So I don't know if Alpecin is going to step up, if Canyon maybe is going to step up a bit, you know, don't know.
- [09:14]
B
Yeah, it's kind of a weird situation because Canyon needs the team to survive, so Matthew Vanderpoel has somewhere to raise. I mean, obviously he goes somewhere else, but this is a good situation for him. So maybe they would step up. I, I mean, there's some, some changes going on at Canyon I don't know if you've been aware of, but they, their founder came back in, is now the CEO again. So some. I don't quite know what's going on there, but that could change the relationship with the team as well. When you have, I would imagine he's a more racing oriented guy because he's a racing background and that team is really where the. I feel like the brand went to the next level. But we can talk about that more over the off season. Some of those departures too, I, I think that's like the opposite way. Right? Someone gets older, more expensive and you're like, you know what? We're based in Belgium. We can. Where there's big strong guys who want to work all around us, let's get them for cheaper. Let the more expensive people go to other teams. Anything, Johan, anything else on this Day. I still can't get over this. Like, how does this happen?
- [10:15]
A
The other highlight is, of course, this bonus sprint, you know, with 58K to go. I mean, you see Jonas take four seconds, you know, Bitcock and Almeida, were they sleeping? I don't know. I mean, it's like you say Spencer, you know, he got. He got. He put so much effort. Yes. Almeida put so much effort yesterday in getting 10 seconds, and today for no effort at all, Jonas gets four seconds back. Ultimately, will it matter? We don't know. We will see that tomorrow. Right, but that's definitely. Yeah. I was surprised because you could clearly see when you saw the peloton getting close to that sprint, that Visma was up there drilling it. Jonas was up there. I mean, you knew that he was gonna try. And then it looked like UAE started to come to the front when they. Yeah. Were like 50 meters to go or something.
- [11:11]
B
I mean, it shows a huge, like, lack of organization and discipline, too. Like, were they not briefed on it? I was shocked watching it because, I.
- [11:20]
A
Mean, listen, there's not that much you have to remember, you know, and especially, especially on a stage like today is, you know, okay, there's a bonus sprint there. You have a lot of time to think because there's only one rider in front. You know, that's going to be four and two seconds. And if you see all those yellow guys with the red guy on the wheel up front, just be on the wheel, you know, because Almeida or Pitcock would have beaten you on us in the sprint.
- [11:45]
B
Yeah. I mean, think of Evo, Olivier. They have all these guys, uae, like, they could have easily have boxed vinegar out. It's shocking. I mean, maybe they thought the group would be bigger and they didn't even talk about it. But there's someone that I know that is like a strategy consultant for a team. And it's always a question. It's like, well, what do they do? It's like, well, that would actually be good. Good for someone to get on the phone right when that break goes and said, hey, remember, guys, 60k to go. There's some sprint point sprint seconds. Maybe we get up there and don't let Jonas get free time. I mean, we don't know, like, that could be the winning margin of the race.
- [12:22]
A
Imagine, Imagine. Imagine. That would be crazy.
- [12:26]
B
It's crazy.
- [12:26]
A
That would be crazy.
- [12:28]
B
I don't know if you're watching GP Quebec right now, but. No, Gotcha's back. He's. He's stomping all over this race right now. Not even the, the best one of the weekend for him. Um, we get, we'll talk about how that plays out maybe on Monday when we come back. But anything else, Johan, on the stage before we move on?
- [12:45]
A
Uh, I don't think there's anything else. You know, it was, yeah, one rider, breakaway. So from that moment on we knew, we all knew it was going to be a bunch sprint. The peloton knew also, I think one of the slowest stages of the whole, of the whole Vuelta. You know, I think, I mean, I saw somewhere after, I mean with like 50, 60k to go, they had like 39.8 average. You don't see that anymore. I mean still fast, but you don't see it anymore nowadays.
- [13:15]
B
You know that room I was, I went through last night because you were talking about how short these stages are. So today's was really slow, still sub four hours. Only a handful of stages of this race have been over four hours. It's like notable. It's almost a different sport than like the Tour where a lot of the stages could be four, five, six hours. So it is interesting how much shorter these races are. But then let's take a quick commercial break, quick ad break. We'll talk about stage 20. Things could, things could change tomorrow. Race gets serious tomorrow. We'll be right back, everybody. This episode is brought to you by Caldera Lab. Let's be real. Most skincare products are not made for men. And when they are, they're usually not that great. They're overly complicated, packed with questionable ingredients, or they just don't deliver the results. That's where Caldera Lab comes in. They've redefined men's skincare by combining advanced science with high quality non tox toxic ingredients to create a simple, effective routine that actually works. This is incre. This is incredibly important. If you're a cyclist, you're out there in all types of conditions. You know, you're in the sun, you're in the cold, you're in the wind. That is tough on your skin. And that's where Caldera Lab has products that can help you out. The most simple one, my favorite, the base layer, a nutrient rich moisturizer that absorbs quickly and provides a non greasy matte finish, is great for your face. After you shower, after you come back, you put that on, your skin's going to thank you. And it's good for your legs. After you shave your legs, just throw it on there, you'll have nice smooth legs. At least you'll look fast. People will be Intimidated Also have the EY eye serum designed to help reduce the appearance of tired eyes. Include like mine, including dark circles and puffiness. 75% of users reported diminished darkness under their eyes. So whether you're starting fresh or upgrading your routine, Caldera Lab makes skin care simple and effective. Don't settle for drugstore junk or steal your partner's products. I've gotten in trouble for that. Elevate your routine with skincare made for you. Head to calder lab.com the move and use code the move at checkout for 20% off your first order. Again, again. That's calderalab.com themove all right, back to the show. Okay, Johan. Twenty stage 20, 165 kilometers. But that doesn't really tell the whole story because there are 1, 2, 3, 4, 5 categorized climbs. With the Bolo da Mundo final climb, it is about 9% average gradient, 12.5 K long, but it's quite a bit steeper near the top, I believe. Not good pavement. You live close to this climb. What can you tell us about it?
- [15:56]
A
Yeah, I mean, it's not. So basically, Bola del Mundo is an extension of Nava Serrada. Right. So you get to Nava Serrada, you take a right and then it's 3km open. Really, really rough pavement. It's like concrete. It's. It's very rough. It's. It does. It's not smooth and it's 3 kilometers at 12.5% with. I mean, we can, we can put up the picture here. Gabri, put it up the. I mean, this. 18, 19, 20%. 19%. I mean, it's, it's. Yeah, it's, it's like, it's like Angli Rue, but. But worse pavement.
- [16:40]
B
Yeah.
- [16:40]
A
Super, super slow and could be also windy. So the last time they're going to go up is super, super hard. I expect it to be a GC day. I don't think. I mean, it's difficult for a breakaway to make it, you know, because. And also, if you think about it, Spencer, you know, for Almeida to have a chance, first of all, he's going to need great legs. That's number one. And they kind of need the stage win when the bonification.
- [17:15]
B
They might even need the bonification from. There's a. I think it's at the top of the second to last climb on this.
- [17:24]
A
Okay. That's also on Nava Serrada. So they come up Nava Serrada first from one side, which is the. From what's it called? La Granja de Sanzo. That's kind of this, the hardest one where there's, there's some turns, some switchbacks, they go over it, they go down and then they come back from where Guadarrama, which is the longer side, less steep. But anyways, when they get to the top, then they, they take a right and then it's Tabola del mundo. That's those 3km. You'll see it's gonna, it's gonna take very long to get to the top.
- [18:01]
B
And I went back and looked and they haven't done it a lot. But in the past, the time gaps have been significant. So for reasons that, I mean, I don't fully understand, but you know, with like the ang. The time gaps are never that big. And as we saw today, like Jonas and Almeida were kind of stuck together, but for whatever reason, maybe it's the bad pavement. You do get bigger, seem to get bigger time gaps on this. So there is a hope that could, there could be at least something between.
- [18:27]
A
And also Spencer, you know, I mean, if you look at Angli Ru stage, it's. I mean there's the Alto del Cordal before, which is hard but not so long. And so the accumulation of meters was what it was in Anglirum, about 3,000 meters. Tomorrow is 4,200 meters. It is the hardest stage of the whole Vuelta.
- [18:49]
B
So this is not a long stage.
- [18:51]
A
This is a real mountain stage. And also the climbs are high, you know, 2000, 2200 or 2300 almost. So this is real, real high altitude mountain stage. That's different than what we usually in the Vuelta where the climbs are not at high altitude.
- [19:13]
B
That's a good point. I mean, I didn't even know that there was. I guess Madrid's high. So if there's mountains outside of Madrid. Yeah, it stands to reason they would be high as well. But I had no idea these mountains were so tall right outside the city. What, what's this mountain range? It's like, what's it called?
- [19:29]
A
It's called the Sierra de Madrid. But this is, this is the. How would you say it's the mountains around Guadarrama. There's many, there's many, many, many. A lot of, a lot of clans there. Nava Serrada is actually Nava Serra. You have Nava Serrada and you have Kotos, which is next to it. It's more or less the same altitude. Those are actually ski stations.
- [19:54]
B
Okay.
- [19:54]
A
Yeah.
- [19:55]
B
Oh, yeah, yeah. I mean, I saw, when I was looking at the pictures today, it's. I didn't realize you could ski that close to Madrid either. I'm trying to remember the year. Was it 2015 where Dumalon had the lead? Looked a little dinged up going into stage 20, and I think it was a mountain stage around. Is that 2015 or was that 2014?
- [20:17]
A
I don't remember was. It was when Fabio Aru won the Vano.
- [20:20]
B
Yeah. So that was 2015.
- [20:23]
A
Yeah. It's in this. In the same area.
- [20:26]
B
Yeah. And it is a punish. I just vividly remember the stage. It's punishing, and then you can kind of get through the rest. But if there's any weaknesses, you can blow up. I mean, Dumalon exploded on this stage because it's unforgiving. I'll read. I'll list off the odds really quick. This is on FanDuel in the US and then we'll pick our winners. Jonas Finnegard plus 360. Joel Ometer plus 500. Jai Hindley plus 650. Tom Pitcock plus 750. Julio Pelizari plus 1000. Eddie Dunbar plus 1800. Jayvine plus 2500. Matthew Ricatella plus 2700. It goes on and on and on. We'll call them out when we need to. If you do want to bet, make sure you check out ne next bets nxtbets.com bet outcomes, and it will tell you exactly where you can bet, where you live, and the best signup bonuses on each book, which can be substantial. So, Johan, how do you think this plays out? GC or breakaway? And who do you think wins?
- [21:19]
A
No, I think it's dc. I think it's DC And I think actually tomorrow it's. In my opinion, it's. It's UAE that needs to control. It would be in the interest of visma that they're not racing for the stage win, because then the modifications are gone.
- [21:37]
B
Right.
- [21:38]
A
So I can't see them control. I mean, if they're smart, they're not controlling and they do everything that. It's not a GC day, and UAE needs to do the opposite. But I'm gonna. I'm gonna go for Jonas. Jonas Wingergaard to win. I think it's GC tomorrow, and. And Jonas finally. I mean, stays with Almeida and finally beats him on in the last kilometer. Plus 300. 360. And you.
- [22:04]
B
Plus 360. Yeah. Pretty good.
- [22:06]
A
Yeah.
- [22:06]
B
I mean, the best climber in the race will win this stage, most likely. So that's not. Not a bad pick. But I'm going to go. I think the best climber in this Jonas, I think, has looked a little vulnerable. And Joao Almeida, you know, also finished behind Jonas on the last summit finish we had. He looked pretty good in that time trial. I think this is a good climb for him. I'm going Jamalameda plus 500. And as you said, if he wants to win this vta, he needs the time bonuses. He has to win the stage and hope that vinegard. I mean, it could be a thrilling. We could have like a thrilling countback situation here where we're like watching the clock tick down. But I think Almeida wins.
- [22:45]
A
Okay. All right. My second choice is going to be who in my opinion was the best climber in the lot. The last time we we saw Alto Moreo Pitcock looks looked the strongest of all the favorites. I think he was. I mean, he was quite impressive there. Attacked himself, responded to all the attacks, and then dropped everybody in the last 200 meters. So he's going to be my second choice to win the stage tomorrow. Tom Pitcock.
- [23:13]
B
Yeah, Piccock. I thought about this. I thought he did look. He looks really good. Is there a chance, Johan, he has to fly. Does he take a private jet? Can he do the mountain Mike World Championships and then fly back for the final stage on Sunday? Because he looks that good. I'm going to go wild card. I'm going real goofy. Like nothing makes sense. I don't understand it. I'm going Jay vine plus 2,500 because I think he might be the strongest climber in this race. And I think he's going to be in the breakaway for KoM points. In theory, he should have to come back, but we've seen some really weird stuff from UAE this Vuelta. I'm going to go. I think if it is a breakaway, Jay vine wins from the breakaway. So I'm going him.
- [23:55]
A
Yeah. Okay, Okay. I mean, listen, if there's one guy who can do it, it's him. I just don't understand why they even give priority to the king of the mountains. I mean, few don't need this, you know, whether they win the KOM or not makes no difference.
- [24:11]
B
Can you imagine if Jayvine goes in the breakaway, wins the stage, gets KOM and then Almeida loses the overall by like 3 seconds. It could happen. It's unbelievable.
- [24:24]
A
Yeah, yeah, yeah.
- [24:26]
B
And that's why that's. I. I've not. This has not been my favorite Grand Tour for many reasons. The fact that that's a possibility means we've. We've had a pretty fun time.
- [24:36]
A
Because tomorrow, Tomorrow, I mean, let' hope. Fingers crossed. That the stage can go on until the finish, but there's not going to be any spectators in the last kilometer. Not because of the protest, but I mean because of another protest which happened before the Vuelta. It was the, the. I mean some kind of movement that said that, you know, they, they didn't want the Vuelta to go up there for the environment. And yeah, I think, yeah, the Vuelta made a compromise and they said so there's not going to be any spectators except accredited people from the organization in the last kilometer.
- [25:15]
B
I think we might be seeing Covid rules brought back in 2026, Johan. I think we might not. They might not allow spectators on these final climbs anymore because it's just too hard to control. But yeah, hopefully it happens. They could have blocked today. What is going on with these get these sprint stages.
- [25:32]
A
Unfortunately, I have to say, Spencer, I read some news and there is a big movement in Spain and they've been called to action to come as many possible people to tomorrow stage and the stage in Madrid. And apparently they have a plan to get to the top of the mountain, not by road but through the fields, which is how I've heard. So that's difficult to control.
- [26:02]
B
Yeah, that's discouraging to hear. I feel bad. I feel bad for the riders. That's just all I'll say about that. Anything else, Johan, before we take off?
- [26:13]
A
No, no, I mean just tomorrow we're going to be a bit later with the show. I have to travel to the south of Spain with. With my son for a two day race. So I'm going to have to do it after the team time trial tomorrow. There's a team time trial for the cadets that's fun in close to Merida in Extremadura. So we'll be nice long show will be a bit later than normal.
- [26:39]
B
Okay, yeah, and then we'll do that show tomorrow and then no show Sunday and then we'll do a recap on Monday. But thanks Johan and we will talk soon.
- [26:49]
A
Okay, thanks.
- [26:50]
B
All right, bye.