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- [00:01]
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- [01:00]
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- [01:31]
Johan Berniel
My main takeaway and my concern is about uae on how vulnerable they start to look and what that may do with the intentions of the other teams. You know, we have seen and I've said, you know, Pogacia is probably strong enough to solve all these situations by himself or together with Del Toro. They can do it. But, you know, I just wanted to go back, Spencer, to stage three. If I remember correctly, I made an observation about UAE's tactics and I don't exactly remember what I said, but I do remember saying, Spencer, it adds up and I hope I don't have to tell you and stay in week three, I told you so. We are getting to that point that I'm going to say I told you so, Spencer. They were so strong and they didn't manage their energy well enough.
- [02:34]
Spencer Martin
Everybody, welcome back to the Move Plus I'm Spencer Martin. I'm here with Johan Berniel. We are breaking down stage 18 of the Tour de France won by Richard Carapaz with an incredible solo breakaway. Not solo breakaway. With an incredible solo move from a breakaway with Maro Schmid second. Second in the sprint yesterday, second. Today on the summit finish, Matteo Jorgensen third. Johan, you called this. You got the Caraz win correct. Nothing changed in the gc, which did not surprise me as everyone came in with two brutal days in the Alps remaining. And we'll also Preview tomorrow's stage 19. But Johan, what, what are your thoughts coming right out of the stage?
- [03:12]
Johan Berniel
Yeah, it was an interesting stage. Spencer, of course, you know, great win by Kapas. I mean he was the favorite and it was, you know, EF really worked hard for it. But my takeaway of the day is that UOE starts to look a little bit more fragile than they have looked so far today. It was not visible too much because they didn't have to do a lot of work. But what was it today? Stage 18. So we're, you know, with three stages to go, this is not the UAE we saw in week one who were so dominant. So going after everything. Yesterday we saw Adam Yates sick today looked a bit better, but still couldn't stay with the main group today. Brandon McNulty was dropped straight away, was a long time in front of the broomwagon and had to abandon. So also sick apparently. And then we saw Tim Wellens dropped early. Florian Vermeers dropped early. Where other teams have the majority of their team still, especially the GC teams. Red Bull was very well represented. Decathlon was very well represented. So that's a bit my part of the fact that it was an amazing stage, but my main takeaway and my concern is about UAE on how vulnerable they start to look and what that may do with the intentions of the other teams we have seen. And I've said Pogachev is probably strong enough to solve all these situations by himself or together with del Toro. They can do it. But I just wanted to go back, Spencer, to stage three. If I remember correctly, I made an observation about UAE's tactics and I don't exactly remember what I said, but I do remember saying, Spencer, it adds up. And I hope I don't have to tell you in week three, I told you so. We are getting to that point that I'm going to say I told you so, Spencer. They were so strong and they didn't manage their energy well enough. You know, there's a lot of theories out there that, yeah, you know, cycling has changed and they race every day like it's a one day race. Guess what? That's not true. Not in a Grand Tour and definitely not in a Tour de France. I think they will still be fine. But, you know, I know from experience that if you are the leading team and you have the big favorite, you have to be two times as strong as the next team to be able to be at peace and to be able to control everything well. And that's ultimately what you have to go for in your strategies. And I don't think that uae, of course, you know, listen, everybody can get sick, right? They have two guys sick.
- [06:20]
Spencer Martin
Well, we should also mention Brandon McNulty got hit with a road raid. Rogue raid, sorry, Road rage incident on stage 16.
- [06:27]
Johan Berniel
That's true. Yeah.
- [06:29]
Spencer Martin
Probably didn't help.
- [06:30]
Johan Berniel
Yeah, yeah, yeah, yeah, yeah, yeah. I haven't. I hadn't seen much reporting on that, but that's obviously also a factor. But, you know, you have to calculate those things in that something can happen with a teammate. You know, I remember last year, Almeida crashed out in stage four or five. I think I'm more thinking about, more judging on, you know, the state of freshness and fitness of my two Belgian fellows, Tim Valens and Florian Vermeers. Yeah, these guys should not be dropped on spots that they are getting dropped now. So, you know, whether it's an illness that's going on in the. In the team, I don't think. I think Wellands and Tim and Vermeers are tired, and rightfully so, but they could have been less tired if they would have done a little bit less in the first week. That's just my. My opinion.
- [07:22]
Spencer Martin
Why did they do so much in the first week? Were they chasing Team gc?
- [07:26]
Johan Berniel
Well, you know, we've heard about Team GC ambitions. I think that's not smart to go for that if you are in a position to defend the yellow jersey. I think Team GC is something, especially in the case of uae, they should not chase that. If they win it, it should be because it comes naturally to them, because you have the strongest three guys in the big mountain stages. But you know, the fact that yesterday, for example, Niels Pollit was in the breakaway, for me personally, that's not a smart move. That shows that they still have ambitions for the Team gc and they should not have these ambitions. They should not have these ambitions. You know why? Because if you let the Team GC go, that's just an other classification that in a case of a crisis, you can use to your advantage in case there's a breakaway and there's. If UAE is third or fourth in Team GC and they already know that, they're not interested, then the second team becomes a threat to Little Trek, for example, who want the team gc, right? They want it. And there can be breakaways. Like today, for example, where there's a team with two riders in the break and Little Trek only has one, and they can use it to their advantage in the peloton. I don't know if I'm explaining myself clear enough, but I think that's a mistake to go for team GC now, of course, I mean, it looks like they're not going to get a team gc, but still, you know, there's little cracks in uae and we are not the only ones who have seen that. Now, it depends on how good they can manage it. And, you know, I think ultimately Bogaccia are so strong that it probably won't matter that much because it's also, you know, you have to always take into account if UAE is weakened, it's not like there's another team who has a full team of fresh guys who can attack them. You know, they only. Only also only have two guys, right? Yeah, so. So it's not. It's basically comes down to a man against man, and that's. That's normally always going to be Poga who takes the upper hand. And then on top of that, you know, we have these other teams who are reading riding like we saw today for to protect the top 10 place, so they can use that in the next two stages also. But Grand Tours are three weeks man, and whatever you spent, you pay for at a certain moment. And that's. This is the proof.
- [09:57]
Spencer Martin
Here's the devil's advocate of that. So UAE knows Pigato is the strongest. Pigato does not fatigue like a normal rider. They fry their team early to wear out the rest of the peloton. Because, Johan, if I agree UAE is weak, UA is vulnerable. If you were going to attack on any day, it would be today. Stage 19's too hard. Stage 20 is too hard. When you have these big, big, big climbs, doesn't matter if Pigato is isolated. He's going to drop you on those climbs. Today was the fast day that you could get away and put them in trouble. And what did everyone do? They rode along with Bogachar. Q 36.5 came to the front. Total energies came to the front. He's got friends out there. Red Bull's pulling. Did they do this with the thinking? Well, once we get to the third week, everyone's going to be beaten into submission, essentially, or so so into their own top 10 positions. You don't even really need a team.
- [10:52]
Johan Berniel
No, you can't do. You can't do that with that intention, Spencer, because you don't know what's going to happen. And believe me, it always feels a lot better if you feel that the team needs to protect. The leader in the yellow jersey feels very solid. You know, they feel. Let me tell you, they. They feel vulnerable. They're not going to say it, but they are worried that something is. Something may. May happen.
- [11:16]
Spencer Martin
Why? Because I would have thought today it's like, you look at that profile, you're like, that's tough to. To control. If they're. They might be worried. It doesn't seem like anyone is interested in worrying them, though. I. There's no. There's no movement for these GC riders.
- [11:33]
Johan Berniel
There's also. In the last three days, it's whatever you have left. There's not so much left in terms of strength and energy. Everybody, you know, does whatever they can, and there's nobody. I mean, like, if you look, for example, a guy like Carapas is a lot stronger now than he was in week one. Right. But he's not a threat for gc. There are riders like this that come into, you know, Ben Healy looks like he's also improving. Mauro Schmidt. But, you know, those guys are not GC riders. And these guys are so strong in week three because they. In week one and two, they've saved energy and they have not cared too much about certain things. A GC rider has to be on top of their game during three weeks. So there's not going to be any GC rider who now all of a sudden is on the up, except maybe Remco a bit, you know, Remco. I think Remco looks better now than he was in week one, but it's also not that he looks so much stronger that he can worry Bogachar, in my opinion, at least I have not seen that so far.
- [12:36]
Spencer Martin
Well, and he's not really incentivized to, like, let's say Remco. Today would have been perfect. Can you imagine Remco having a pole trying to break away on today's stage? Like, that's where he's the most dangerous. But he's not going to risk a second place at the Tour. He's almost handcuffed by his second place. Like, he's not going to do anything crazy.
- [12:53]
Johan Berniel
The only thing Remco could have done today was test on the last climb. That's the only thing. But that's I've done.
- [12:59]
Spencer Martin
That's not where he's gonna drop Pagachar is the.
- [13:01]
Johan Berniel
No, not on climb like today. Exactly.
- [13:03]
Spencer Martin
Yeah, yeah. Like he's good at fast course, fast hilly course. He gets clear with 50k to go and no one can pull him back. Not a 7% climb, probably.
- [13:13]
Johan Berniel
Exactly, exactly.
- [13:15]
Spencer Martin
Yeah. UAE, they are falling apart. I mean, they have like stage 18 or today's stage. They have two guys in that final group, unless I'm missing someone. And then decathlons, three riders, you know.
- [13:26]
Johan Berniel
Yeah, but still, it's still not a problem. Spencer. There's no, as I said, there's no team with a full team that can actually do damage. Right. Because if you look. Okay, let's, let's take the case of decathlon. Okay? They have four riders. Okay, fine. But it's still going to be Paul's exas against Pugachar. And the other guys are there because they may be a bit stronger than the fourth or the fifth guy of uae, but they're not that much stronger. They're on the. I mean, their number one and their number two will be there, but the number three and their number four are there, but also hanging on for dear life to be there. So I always make a lot of reservations with, you know, especially commentaries that say, oh, you know, he's isolated and this team has numbers. Okay, they have numbers, but so What? You know, 60% of their numbers are hanging on there and they cannot do anything anyways. You know, you need, if you have numbers, you need these guys to be super strong and be able to do damage. I mean, if you look, for example, today. So it was, it was success and Prudhomme and Paret Pantra and Matthew Racitello, right?
- [14:33]
Spencer Martin
Yes.
- [14:34]
Johan Berniel
The four decathlon guys. Who of these three guys would have been able to force something that could potentially bring ue in trouble?
- [14:41]
Spencer Martin
Well, I think it's actually Perry Poncho was like seven minutes back, so it was just three of them.
- [14:46]
Johan Berniel
Okay.
- [14:47]
Spencer Martin
I mean, if we're talking about riders that can put Bagatra under trouble, then there's no list. So there's no point. Like, no team has anyone that can put him under pressure, because that doesn't exist.
- [14:58]
Johan Berniel
Exactly. Yeah. So, yeah, I would say worried, concerned, you know, you know, with reservations. You know, it's, it's, it's, it's. But as I say, you know, as the team of the leader, you need to be the dominant team. And they have been this dominant team, but for the moment they are, you know, they are missing people. You know, Wellens and Vermeers are not there when they have to be there. They're tired. But I heard these comments in week one, you know, yeah, we feel great. You know, we won a team gc. I don't know who it was. If it was Wellens over Mersch, who said, yeah, you know, I just went to the front and I had a good day, and I just did my own pace. And he kept the break at like one or two minutes. Why? It's not necessary. Yeah. I would say, if I can. If I can voice some criticism there, I would say that's a lack of direction from the car. If this guy feels great, the guy in the car needs to say, okay, great. Let's just make sure you feel great within next week also. So today you're not going as fast as you want. You're letting the brake go, and we save you. Those are things that need to be decided from the car. And don't let the riders decide on the moment because they don't have the ability to think two weeks ahead.
- [16:23]
Spencer Martin
Yeah, I mean, that's a very Tim Wellens thing to say, too. Like. Well, that actually doesn't make any sense. Yeah, you gotta have a director tell him not to do that because that is. That is some out there thinking, I just want to ride my own pace. Like, yeah, but that pace is way too hard. What are we doing, Tim? Slow down, Johan. But at any. Speaking of slowing down, was there at any point on the stage where you were worried about Richard Carapaz not winning?
- [16:48]
Johan Berniel
No, I was not. I think EF today did a great race. They. They had always people everywhere, and whenever there was a situation where there was groups away, they corrected and they chased. Even when there was a group gone, they started to make tempo in the peloton so Karapas could bridge up. He did bridge up in an amazing way. So I don't think he was ever in. They created the situation where he was in a position to win the stage no matter what was going on. There was chaos and was people attacking left, right and center. But they created the situation to put Carapas in with a potential victory.
- [17:35]
Spencer Martin
Yeah, it was super impressive. I mean, because he wasn't even in that move. And I mean, if they're a great example of no GC threat at this race, but getting behind one like a leader on their team that they know can deliver a stage and maybe the KOM jersey.
- [17:52]
Johan Berniel
Yeah.
- [17:52]
Spencer Martin
And they are all working in unison toward that. It was so impressive to.
- [17:56]
Johan Berniel
Well, he's missing close. He's been close a few times. No, Spencer already. It's like, you know, he's been. Remember that stage that Bogachar blew by him? He, you know, he was, he was on the way to winning a stage.
- [18:07]
Libsyn Ads Announcer
Yeah.
- [18:08]
Johan Berniel
Then, okay, then Pugach also won on the Markstein. Yeah, he went on the march and he was also in the break there. Last, last guy surviving, I think, you know, so, I mean, look at, I mean, if you look at these, I mean, so many attacks at the end a stage like this. On stage 18, you know, we've said it many times. You know, the two guys we picked yesterday were in the breakaway. So Karapas. And you picked Arensmann. I think initially you wanted to pick Paddy Panther. He was also in the breakaway. So, you know, if you look, Carapace Parepantre, Arensmann, Engelhardt, Jurgensen, Bernal, Gregoire, Torsten, Mauro, Schmidt, Johanneson, Castrillo, Garcia, Pierna. And then, you know what to say about Mats Peterson today. Spencer. What a ride and what a performance of this guy. This guy did not belong in this group. Yeah, he was there.
- [19:07]
Spencer Martin
Oh, it was start. The race started on a Cat 1 climb and he got away. What are we doing here, folks? I mean, now his lead is. What is it? 32 points?
- [19:17]
Johan Berniel
30. 30. 30 something points. So, you know, it's not safe yet, but it looks a lot better than yesterday. I mean, yesterday after the stage, you know, no matter how strong of a race Pedersen had done yesterday, that was a big defeat in terms of the green jersey yesterday, where he turned it around overnight.
- [19:37]
Spencer Martin
Yeah, yeah, he did it. He did it. Nothing. I mean, he'll probably get another one because if he gets another one on stage 19 or 20, then he's looking at a 50, like a 57 point lead. Then he still has to stay upright and present in Paris. But then he's essentially sealed it. There's almost no way he could lose that unless he really had an issue. I mean, we don't even know if Phillips is going to be able to contest the finish. He'll definitely contest the intermediate sprint in Paris though. But we don't know if he's going to be there for the. We don't know how hard it's going to be.
- [20:12]
Johan Berniel
You know, if Philipson wins, then Peterson's going to be second or third. So, you know, in, in that intermediate sprint, I mean.
- [20:19]
Spencer Martin
Yeah, unless there's an issue. Right. Ideally you would have enough of a lead that you could weather a mechanical where you just totally donut an intermediate sprint or a finish.
- [20:29]
Johan Berniel
But, but, but Peterson today, man, I mean, he must have woken up and said, okay, this is the day. You know, I saw a report somewhere, Spencer. This is a mountain stage. It was 4,000 meters of climbing. Mats Pedersen today was on a one by a single chainring and a 56 chainring in the front in a mountain stage. So he was. He said, okay, it's all or nothing. I need to be in that breakaway and then I need to have the gears to drive the brake, you know, And I mean, listen, the fact that he was there with all these climbers, that was impressive.
- [21:08]
Spencer Martin
Yeah. Also even more impressive if you're going to stand on a soapbox about your UAE call, I would say kids out there do not watch Little Trek for team tactics because there was points where Pedersen was in the move driving the pace, and the peloton was being led by his teammate, Quinn Simmons, reeling him in. What the heck's going on at Little Trek, Johan?
- [21:28]
Johan Berniel
I don't know. I don't know. I mean, I don't know if they even was really. I mean, I haven't really seen that. But they definitely had the intention of having multiple guys in the break because Wacky was in there. And Quinn Simmons, Right? Yeah. In that second group. I mean, at some point they were all together probably.
- [21:49]
Spencer Martin
What happens is the director says, we need someone, we need two guys in the front at all times. And then Quinn Simmons says, I'm not in the front, I gotta get up there. But the way he's executing it, he doesn't realize that he's pulling the peloton with him.
- [22:02]
Johan Berniel
Well, it was not the peloton. It was the second group, right? It was the second.
- [22:05]
Spencer Martin
Well, yeah, I mean, I don't know. It's all theoretical today that you never really knew what was going on.
- [22:12]
Johan Berniel
Another way you could look at it, Spencer, from a tactical point of view is okay at some point. So there's eight guys. There's eight guys right in front, or seven guys. And then there's a group with Quinn Simmons in there. And you could say, well, maybe the instructions are drive this group so that the peloton doesn't come back. So Philipson doesn't have the chance to take points in the intermediate sprint. It's maybe a bit far fetched, but
- [22:43]
Spencer Martin
maybe I would say at this tour, and I don't know if this is a decay of society thing. I've never seen so many riders like that example Quinn Simmons, it's like, but Quinn, you don't have to be on the front. You can let other people close gaps for you. Do you? Is that dying out? Like, why are we losing recipes here? What's going on? Like, why do riders never sit back? And what did they say in Belgium? Let someone else finish their plate before.
- [23:09]
Johan Berniel
Yeah, yeah.
- [23:10]
Spencer Martin
Like, what. What is happening? You don't have to be the one to close it down every time.
- [23:15]
Johan Berniel
I don't. Yeah, I don't know. Yeah, that was. That was a bit strange today. But still, I mean, Pedersen got what he wanted. Great day for him. You know, what a day. What a difference a day makes. Right. Compared to yesterday, where it didn't look so good. Today, Pedersen showed what a complete writer he is, because there's nobody of that kind of. I mean, there's nobody who can do this, except maybe van der Poel. And I would say. You know what? I would say Peterson, probably better.
- [23:45]
Spencer Martin
Stronger right now. He's stronger right now, that's for sure. I also love how his turnaround. I mean, yesterday was a bad day for him mathematically, but he beast the peloton and was one of the strongest riders in the world. And then today he just did the same thing. So it's like. It's not like he had two divergent performances. It was just mathematically, the days ended up differently. Someone did send in a question like, oh, why didn't Vanderpoel just out sprint? Why didn't he just get second in the sprint yesterday? It's like, well, yeah, he's not a machine. Can't just lead out Phillipson and then also sprint to second place to take more points. Like, I don't think he's sitting up because he wants to. He has to.
- [24:22]
Johan Berniel
You mean in the final? In the final. Final. Lead out. Yeah, yeah, yeah, yeah.
- [24:28]
Spencer Martin
That's not an option.
- [24:29]
Johan Berniel
It doesn't work like that. But today, for example, that shows you how strong Petersen was today. Petersen had been trying, and van der Poel has been following him four times. And the fifth time, Petersen got clear without van der Poel. That's how strong he is, you know, I mean, like. Like, they all feel the effort from yesterday, because yesterday was an incredible hard stage, especially for the guys who were in the front group.
- [24:54]
Spencer Martin
Someone. So, you know, we're watching the race with some beginners and in the studio, and one of them asked me, this is a person that wrote for your team, Johan, Why didn't Alpecin just send a couple riders up with Fedderson to beat him in the sprint for the intermediate sprint? What's wrong with them? Do you guys realize how hard that is?
- [25:12]
Johan Berniel
It's not PlayStation, guys.
- [25:14]
Spencer Martin
No, you know, so I always struggle
- [25:18]
Johan Berniel
with, you know, on the commenting also, you know. Yeah, why don't they send somebody in the break? I mean that, that's there, that's thing. Send somebody in the break. That term should not exist. You cannot send somebody in the break. The guy, the guy needs to have the legs to be able to make it. And on stages like today, if you look at the composition, Karapas, Parenter, Arensman, Jurgensen, Bernal, Schmidt, I mean, come on, man, you need to be unbelievably, unbelievably strong.
- [25:51]
Spencer Martin
And it's always the same guys,
- [25:54]
Johan Berniel
you know, how many guys has this, how many times has this guy been in the breakaway already in this Tour de France? This is a really strong guy who is really, really undervalued. Super strong rider. Yeah, he is from, he's from Madrid, by the way. Oh, he is son, son of ex professional writer Felix Garcia Casas and he has a brother, a brother, Raul Garcia Pierna, who's also a professional writer who writes for Burgos.
- [26:25]
Spencer Martin
And you know who else was strong today? Marsh Schmidt. How about that? Second yesterday. Second today. Holy smokes.
- [26:33]
Johan Berniel
Yeah, yeah.
- [26:34]
Spencer Martin
Somebody get back to that contract.
- [26:36]
Johan Berniel
Yeah, yeah. Well, he has stage wins. As far as I've been reading, he did sign a really, really good contract for I think three years. So I think, I think he's going to be fine.
- [26:49]
Spencer Martin
I mean what he's doing, it won't jump off. You know, a lot of people won't notice because he just won one stage. Just won one stage. But man, like that is. There's not many writers in the world that could do what he's doing. Super strong every day.
- [27:01]
Johan Berniel
Very strong.
- [27:02]
Spencer Martin
He's super strong. Anything that he could be doing to help him be so strong, Johan, especially fourth place. Perry Pontra
- [27:12]
Johan Berniel
parapantry parapetry. For sure. For sure. There was no Astanas in the break, right? Yeah, yeah, yeah, there is, there is, there's definitely. I want to talk about our new sponsor, Ketone 8. The ketones that are so well known and very popular in endurance sports. We see all the guys after the finish chuck down that little small bottle. Those are ketones. So we have ketone 8. New formats. I just got the new bottle. This is now called the ketone shot. So basically it's something. I mean the other one I showed was a multi dose. This is just one. Shot. Five grams of ketones. I'm going to be good the rest of the night.
- [27:55]
Spencer Martin
Spencer, you're never going to get to sleep.
- [27:58]
Johan Berniel
Yeah, Ketonate is a Company that was one of the first ones who came to the market with real ketone esters. You know, it's very well known by a lot of professionals. They are the official sponsor of Soudal Quickstep and team Astana, Team xds Astana in this Tour de France. But I do know that since it's pure ester, that there are a lot of professional individual riders in this Tour de France and actually teams who don't have a ketone sponsor who buy this product on their own. It's great to having finally as a, as a, as a, as a formal sponsor. But it's definitely a product I can recommend. You know, it's. So to be clear, it's ester. The ketone. Ester is the word. You know, there's a lot of different products out there. Some good ones, some less good ones. A lot of them are ketone salts or a diluted version called the ketone dial. They don't work as good. So Ketone eight. So just to make sure Ketone eight is aid it's not the number eight, it's ketone eight A I d dot com. So for the MOVE listeners, we have a special action during the Tour de France. Go to ketonaid.com or scan the flow code here on the screen and check out with the code the move for 15 off during the rest of the Tour de France. So we have three more days. Normally, ketone 8 never does discount, not even on Black Friday. So go to ketone8.com and use the code the move at checkout for 15% off.
- [29:42]
Spencer Martin
Check it out now. I mean, Johan, I'm going to ask you here because we're not allowed to talk about it on the main show. What happens in the KOM jersey? Pagatro's leading 70 points. Perry Pontra 69, Carapaz 63. Those are the three guys that could win it. What do you think happens from here on out?
- [30:00]
Johan Berniel
Well, obviously we saw today that Parapanter went full gas for it. I mean, he tries. He has tried everything he had. I think this. Did Karapas now pass him with one point? I guess.
- [30:14]
Spencer Martin
No, I think Perry Pontra's in second.
- [30:19]
Johan Berniel
Oh, still in second. Okay.
- [30:20]
Spencer Martin
Yeah. Carapaz is six points down on him.
- [30:25]
Johan Berniel
Okay. I mean, normally it's Pogacha who's going to win it by default, I think especially because we have these big climbs in the final of the race where there's a lot of points at stake. You know, Carapaso or Parapancho can only win it if Pogacha doesn't care about might be that he doesn't care. So in that case, I'm going to go for Carapace to win it ahead of Parepatre because Carapace looks fresher, he has a bigger engine. And I think today is not the last time we have seen Carapace in a breakaway. We're going to see him tomorrow and on Saturday. Also very active, I think, by the way, I think already now we should say that the, the, the, the price of the most combative rider should be Carapas, I think personally, or maybe Mats Pederson maybe is a close, a close second. But, but, I mean, normally it's, it's. Normally it's Pogachar who wins it. Spencer. Because tomorrow up the west, I don't think got a pass unless there's a breakaway that makes it to the finish. You know, we never know. So that's still, still very open. I do, I do know that Karapas made it a goal stage win and polka dot jersey, that's his goal. So let's go for Carapas to win the polka dot, everybody.
- [31:53]
Spencer Martin
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- [34:38]
Johan Berniel
Yeah. So I think Gross Hartner won't be able to do it on his own in the valley. So that could be something that we have to take into account that Bogachar potentially could say, you know what? I can't win the stage. I do, however think that since this is the Tour de France and the last week, there are sufficient other interests, somebody will show up and come to the rescue. I think whether that's decathlon, maybe. Maybe decathlon wants to see if success can do an amazing performance on up the west. Red Bull for sure. Red Bull for sure. They will want. I mean, although they may not be interested in keeping it together, but they will definitely put the pace at the beginning of the west for Remco because that's the way he wants to race. His own rhythm.
- [35:32]
Wayfair Advertiser
So,
- [35:35]
Johan Berniel
yeah, other than that, I don't know. I don't know who else can be interested. What about setting a pace? So depends also if there's somebody. If Carapas is in the break again, Pinarello will come and chase.
- [35:55]
Spencer Martin
Yeah, you're gonna have Pinarello and you're gonna have Pinarello and Total energies.
- [35:59]
Johan Berniel
Yeah.
- [36:00]
Spencer Martin
Who else.
- [36:04]
Johan Berniel
Was our.
- [36:05]
Spencer Martin
Yeah, probably Bahrain, too, for Lenny Martinez.
- [36:10]
Johan Berniel
Yeah, yeah.
- [36:10]
Spencer Martin
Because they're all right there. So that. That's the big. Here's the big question. So I think this is where you. Your UAE concern really becomes relevant, because I don't think Pagatra is going to lose the race. I think they could have a hard time contesting the stage tomorrow because of how weak they are right now. Couple questions. Does Niels Pollitt make it over? Because remember on the cold day LA bonette where he was just shredding the field? It was like stage 19 of the 2024 tour. Like, is he, like, does he emerge as someone that can get over that climb?
- [36:41]
Johan Berniel
I think, I mean, he's not gonna make it, but he could come back. I mean, he's in great shape, so he can come back. And then if that's the case, then, okay, then it's the polit show until the bottom of. Until the bottom of up the west that changes the whole dynamics of the race tomorrow.
- [36:57]
Spencer Martin
And. And then it's who is in the breakaway. Great question. Because. And you bring up a great point. It's going to be these same guys. There's. There's not anyone hiding in the wings to get in this breakaway tomorrow. And if it's Carapaz again, there's going to be a lot of concerned people about him getting time. Right?
- [37:17]
Johan Berniel
Yeah. Yeah.
- [37:18]
Spencer Martin
So, yeah.
- [37:19]
Johan Berniel
So, I mean, that case, if Carapaces in the break, I think it's great news for uae and that's most likely what's going to happen. It's not, you know, these kinds of. These kind of things. It's not a choice anymore. It just happens by, you know how strong you are. And there's. There's no way that if Karapas tomorrow is not going to be the break, if he decides to not be in the break, otherwise he's going to be in the breakaway and he should probably
- [37:48]
Spencer Martin
be in the breakaway. Right?
- [37:50]
Johan Berniel
Yeah. Try to get a stage one, the Kom also, he needs the points on the cat one time.
- [37:54]
Spencer Martin
True, true. I mean, he could actually, the next two stages, he could get a lot of KoM points, a lot of KoM points. I'm also a little worried about the guys because they are banking on blockbuster Alpe d', Huez, which used to happen maybe more back in the Lance era. But I went back and looked at this. So 2022, last time we were here, Tom Pickock wins breakaway break.
- [38:18]
Johan Berniel
Longer station. Longer. Longer station. Yeah.
- [38:21]
Spencer Martin
Went over the Galibia as well.
- [38:22]
Johan Berniel
Yeah.
- [38:23]
Spencer Martin
So 2018, Garrett Thomas wins from the GC group. Great win, great ride. 2015, Tebow Pinot wins kind of a GC day, but Thibaut Pinot was not a GC contender in that tour. 2013, Christophe Reblon wins from the breakaway. 2011, Pierre Roland wins kind of from a GC group, but he was not a GC rider at that point Tour. So the history is not, it's actually the recent history is not that this is a big marquee GC showdown.
- [38:55]
Johan Berniel
Yeah, I, I think however that Pogachar, I mean he should want to win on all the west and on that, on that part of the west, that traditional side, you know, and.
- [39:07]
Spencer Martin
And I can chance at the record, I assume too.
- [39:11]
Johan Berniel
Right. I think I. I think Bugacha is winning tomorrow anyways.
- [39:16]
Spencer Martin
Okay, so you're going Pagat. Do you want me to list the odds? So you're not the only person that thinks this because I use nextbets nxtbets.com betoutcomes to find the best price. It will tell you where you can bet and it will show you which book has the best price. So I went to draftkings click through tadipagacha minus 135. So the money thinks that UAE is going to hold this together. Carapaz plus 320. That would be from a breakaway. Sepkus plus 700 from a breakaway. Remco. Even a poll plus 1600. That would be a Garant Thomas esque sprint finish at the top. Garrett Thomas by the way did 1500 watts at the top of Alpe d' Huez to win that sprint finish. That's how. Cause it does flatten off slightly and it is a high speed sprint sometimes. Isaac Del Toro plus 2000 time and Orangeman plus 2200. That would be from the break. Davide Piganzoli 2500 from the break. Paul Sixas plus 2800. Tom Pidcock plus 3000. If Pidcock wins tomorrow, he's a legend. Double, double Opto as double Olympics. That would be impressive. But you're going with Piga Charles.
- [40:21]
Johan Berniel
I'm gonna go with Pugach. Yeah.
- [40:24]
Spencer Martin
You know someone from the Breakaway. This to be one of the trickiest stages we've had to predict because I could totally see it being a wet blanket. And it's a breakaway just gets too much time. And if a breakaway gets too much time, it's hard to pick. It's hard to look. Pat's past Richard Carapaz, is it not, Johan?
- [40:45]
Johan Berniel
Well, also, I mean, a guy I really like for tomorrow is Sepkus from the break.
- [40:51]
Spencer Martin
Is Sepku's climbing better than Carapaz at the moment?
- [40:54]
Johan Berniel
No.
- [40:55]
Autotrader Advertiser
No.
- [40:56]
Spencer Martin
So that's. That's where I have a hard time with it. I'm just. Yeah, you would. You would have noticed this person, the person that's gonna win tomorrow, you will have noticed at this tour.
- [41:07]
Johan Berniel
Yeah, yeah, for sure.
- [41:09]
Spencer Martin
I'm gonna go carapaz plus 320.
- [41:11]
Johan Berniel
Okay. Two in a row, huh?
- [41:13]
Libsyn Ads Announcer
Wow.
- [41:13]
Spencer Martin
Two in a row. But that's how he is in the third. He can get on these rolls. Remember at the. It was the Vuelta that Remco won. He was unbelievable in that third week. It was crazy. So didn't he win? He can do. Yeah. Yes. In the third week.
- [41:29]
Johan Berniel
Yeah, yeah, yeah, yeah, yeah.
- [41:31]
Spencer Martin
I mean, yeah, the guy. The guy's good. He could win tomorrow. It could happen. Do you think Pagachar, independent of if he wins the stage or not, does he break the record on Alpz? Marco Pintani's record? You don't think so? Wonder if you can bet on this?
- [41:50]
Johan Berniel
I mean. Yeah, I mean, he doesn't. He. He can definitely break it. I don't know. It depends. It depends what he. What? Depends what he. How long he wants to nurse Del Toro tomorrow
- [42:06]
Spencer Martin
again. I like Del Toro. I'm just race. Like, what are we doing here?
- [42:11]
Johan Berniel
To break the records. You cannot.
- [42:13]
Spencer Martin
Why are we nursing people? Yeah, I just want
- [42:19]
Johan Berniel
to looked. He looked good today, by the way. Yeah, he looked really good today.
- [42:24]
Spencer Martin
Like, Pagatra can do what Pagatra does. And it. As you said yesterday, I think that helps Del Toro, because if But Gotcha goes nuclear on Alpe d', Huez, people will ride conservatively behind. And that's good for Del Toro.
- [42:36]
Johan Berniel
Yeah.
- [42:37]
Spencer Martin
Also on Next bets, they have the mountains classification. So I think this is the most interesting bet left open. Carapaz plus 100. Pagatra plus 250. Perry Potra plus 250.
- [42:50]
Johan Berniel
Okay, I kind of makes sense.
- [42:51]
Spencer Martin
I kind of like Carapaz there, right?
- [42:53]
Johan Berniel
Yeah, yeah, yeah, yeah, yeah, yeah.
- [42:56]
Spencer Martin
All right. Well, thanks, Johan. Oh, we got to do Ventum trivia.
- [42:59]
Johan Berniel
Phantom trivia. Yeah.
- [43:01]
Spencer Martin
So if you want to play this, you go to ventumracing.com themove to enter your answer. You'll be entered to win $5,000 toward a new bike of your choice. Could be an NS1, the road bike, the GS1, the gravel bike, the ES1, the E bike. Whatever you want, you can use that $5,000. If you just want to buy a bike and you don't want to try to win the raffle that will be revealed on Sunday on the Move. Just use code. The move 10 for 10% off when you're@ventumracing.com the move. Yesterday's question was, when was the white jersey introduced into the Tour de France or the best young rider? The answer, 1975. That's when.
- [43:40]
Johan Berniel
1975. And. And I've looked it up and it. I think it was Francesco Moser who won the white jersey.
- [43:46]
Spencer Martin
Really? Wow.
- [43:48]
Johan Berniel
Yeah, quite.
- [43:49]
Spencer Martin
It served its purpose.
- [43:50]
Johan Berniel
Yeah, that's.
- [43:51]
Spencer Martin
That's a writer to watch in 1975. And today's question is today's finish. The summit finish we saw is legendary for 1971 stage where a Spaniard crushed Eddie Merckx, taking around eight minutes. Who was it? Johan revealed it in a past episode. So go listen to every episode of the Move plus that's ever been recorded to find that answer and enter it@ventumracing.com themove to be entered to win $5,000 toward a new bike. Anything else, Johan, before tomorrow?
- [44:25]
Johan Berniel
That's it.
- [44:25]
Spencer Martin
Spencer, do you think it's going to be an exciting stage or not?
- [44:29]
Johan Berniel
I think so. I think, you know, Abdoulaye is up the west. I mean, it's going to be crazy amount of spectators, especially with two days in a row. Yes. On up the west. So a lot more people will be there. They know two times the opportunity to see the riders.
- [44:44]
Spencer Martin
Yep.
- [44:47]
Johan Berniel
Yeah, I think. I think it's going to be an exciting day.
- [44:50]
Spencer Martin
I do, too. I think it's partly why today was so conservative from the GC group, because tomorrow is going to be. It starts to get serious and then Saturday is an insane stage.
- [44:59]
Johan Berniel
So two, really 400 meters of climbing Saturday.
- [45:03]
Spencer Martin
That's ridiculous. I. Yeah. I mean, they do a Gran Fondo where you ride that stage.
- [45:09]
Johan Berniel
Yeah, they did the ground a few
- [45:12]
Spencer Martin
days ago and just someone I follow on Instagram did it. And I was like, man, that's kind of a crazy ride to do. Like, I couldn't believe it. And I was like, oh, that's stage 20 of the race. It's not gonna be.
- [45:21]
Johan Berniel
It's called
- [45:24]
Spencer Martin
actually looked kind of cool. Not to give them free publicity, but it kind of looked like a cool event to do. If you guys want, if you'd love for us to plug it, invite us out, we'll do it. Because that looked really fun. Except for.
- [45:35]
Johan Berniel
Well, I mean, I. I'm gonna be. I'm gonna be banned. Spencer. They will.
- [45:38]
Spencer Martin
Does it extend to Gran Fondos?
- [45:41]
Johan Berniel
Spencer, you will not believe. Listen, I'm going to stop with this. Stop with this. You will not believe how people are. So I did a Gran Fondo a couple of weeks ago, La Perico Delgado, organized by Perico Delgado. It was 2,000 people at the start. A great event. I went with a friend, just wrote it. Can you believe that? There's a journalist who picked up on it because he saw a picture of me. He made a whole article about it. Because that is. It's not normal that I'm allowed to ride a Gran Fondo as a cyclotourist because I'm banned for life from cycling. What the actual.
- [46:21]
Spencer Martin
That's the angle of the story, right? That's not the actual fact, is it?
- [46:26]
Libsyn Ads Announcer
That.
- [46:26]
Johan Berniel
I mean, I participate. I participated. I mean, it's like, you know, listen, I'm. I'm there with a bunch of friends. I mean, who cares what I'm doing? You know, it's not a race or something. I'm not. I'm not taking away anything from anybody,
- [46:39]
Spencer Martin
you know, I mean, in theory, you could go do, like, unbound gravel, because it's not a UCI event. I would imagine different.
- [46:46]
Johan Berniel
Yeah, but this, This. I think this falls under the something because it falls under the Spanish Federation, which then depends on the. You know, on the UCI. I guess. So, you know, if. If my good friend David La Partialis is, maybe he's gonna make sure that next year I can't participate in it anymore. I will still be there, David. I will still be there.
- [47:11]
Spencer Martin
Get DQ'd from our ride retroactively in Benidorm. If they find out about that on Spanish soil. That is ridiculous. I can believe that from the journalist perspective because you're sitting around trying to cook something up.
- [47:25]
Johan Berniel
How bad of a platform do you have to have if you need to use that to create content? Like, how sad is it?
- [47:35]
Spencer Martin
I love that. That's a scandal. Johan's at a Gran Fondo.
- [47:39]
Johan Berniel
Yeah, it was a scandal. You know, he said, yeah, we put on Twitter. He said, we keep denouncing, you know, we keep denouncing the. The violations. You know, it's crazy. Anyways, whatever.
- [47:52]
Spencer Martin
We're boycotting LATAP to Loser. All right, well, we'll talk to you. We'll talk tomorrow. Hopefully we'll have a lot of exciting stuff to talk about. Maybe a record breaking performance. We will see. And have a good evening, Johan.
- [48:06]
Johan Berniel
Okay, thanks, Spencer.
- [48:07]
Spencer Martin
Okay, bye.
- [48:15]
Libsyn Ads Announcer
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