Podcast Summary: "And, This Is How The World Looks At Us Under Trump W/ Ian Bremmer"

Podcast: This is Gavin Newsom
Host: Gavin Newsom
Guest: Ian Bremmer, President of Eurasia Group & GZERO Media
Date: November 21, 2025
Duration: ~1 hour, 20 minutes (content focus)

MAIN THEME

Governor Gavin Newsom sits down with geopolitical analyst Ian Bremmer to discuss how the world views the United States under Donald Trump’s presidency (“Trump 2.0”), exploring themes of global uncertainty, shifts in alliances, the rise of unpredictability and unreliability in U.S. foreign policy, and the broader consequences for global stability, trade, and core American values. Together, they assess the Trump administration’s foreign policy, its ripple effects on international relationships, and the future of U.S. leadership on everything from security to technology and AI. The conversation is candid, critical, and deeply analytical, with Newsom and Bremmer openly disagreeing and challenging each other on the most urgent issues of the day.

KEY DISCUSSION POINTS & INSIGHTS

1. America's Eroding Reliability and Its Global Impact

[05:05]

• Bremmer: The U.S. is now the greatest driver of global geopolitical uncertainty—more so than Russia or China. Former allies no longer see America as reliable:

  “It’s whiplash from one administration to the next … countries all over the world, especially our allies, saying we don’t believe that the United States is reliable going forward.”
  — Ian Bremmer [05:37]

• The unpredictability and unreliability are unprecedented, with even close partners questioning whether the U.S. stands for its post-WWII values.

2. Trump’s “Revolutionary” Moment and Political System Change

[06:18]

• Bremmer characterizes Trump’s return as a “political—not economic—revolution,” fundamentally undermining traditional checks and balances:

  “The fact that Trump wants to fundamentally change the US Political system so there are no longer checks and balances on his presidency … is not historically something that is compatible with the United States, but under political revolution, it might be.”
  — Ian Bremmer [08:17]

• Trump’s attempts at consolidating power (ref. media attacks, judiciary, administrative state) mark a significant break from American norms.

3. State Capitalism: U.S. vs China vs Europe

[09:42]

• Bremmer compares U.S. industrial policy under Trump to state capitalism:

  “In China, the state captures the corporations. In the United States, the corporations capture the state. … In Europe, the state stands outside—its superpower is regulatory, but without growth.”
  — Ian Bremmer [09:46]

• Newsom notes how U.S. economic policy has mirrored some Chinese practices (e.g., government stakes in major companies).

4. The Limitations of Trump’s Economic Nationalism

[11:02]

• “Reality has punched him [Trump] in the face.” — Ian Bremmer [11:09]

• Bremmer: Trump's trade war with China backfired; China’s rare earth strategy and counter-sanctions proved more effective than expected.

• American tariffs are now at their highest since the 1930s (between 13-17% tariffs):

  “That’s the single biggest thing he’s done on the global stage so far.”
  — Ian Bremmer [15:09]

• Trump’s “apex predator” approach (everyone must bend to his will) doesn’t work when international realities push back.

5. Middle East: Saudi Arabia, Abraham Accords, and New Realities

[16:46]

• Bremmer on Saudi social and economic transformation, led by Mohammed bin Salman—while also noting the West’s moral compromises post-Khashoggi.
• U.S.-Saudi relationship remains complex, transactional—Trump’s handling of Khashoggi and MBS (bin Salman) “whitewashes” American values.

  “It’s almost like he [Trump] takes pleasure in the opportunity to undermine the values that the United States has at least tried to stand for for much of its recent history.”
  — Ian Bremmer [18:57]

Abraham Accords and Israel-Saudi Peace

• Trump’s diplomatic pressure secured the release of Israeli hostages from Hamas—“got it done” through direct orchestration.
  — [20:52–22:07]

• Full normalization (Saudi Arabia joining Abraham Accords) remains unlikely due to lack of progress toward Palestinian statehood.

6. Lebanon, Gaza, and Iran: Ongoing Volatility

[23:49]

• Bremmer skeptical Lebanon will disarm Hezbollah; expects ongoing Israeli military strikes.
• Tony Blair’s Gaza role (U.S.-multilateral aid coordination) is significant but controversial.

Iran

• U.S.-enabled Israeli strikes delayed Iran’s nuclear capability, but without ground troops or direct confrontation [26:49].

7. U.S.–China: Escalating Decoupling and Strategic Calculations

[27:57]

• High tariffs on Chinese goods now affecting U.S. consumers (“this Christmas … 80% of our toys come from China.” — Newsom).

• Chinese confidence is rising as U.S. retrenches, especially in the Global South, technology, and education:

  “Xi Jinping … believes this is an opportunity. I would argue he is also overplaying his hand.”
  — Ian Bremmer [34:39]

• On critical materials, China’s aggressive moves have provoked U.S. allies to seek new supply chains. “Mutually assured economic destruction” is keeping peace over Taiwan for now.

• U.S. policy is long-term decoupling, not just de-risking, especially in AI and advanced tech:

  “That’s not de-risking. That’s decoupling. That’s where the Americans are going long term.”
  — Ian Bremmer [39:46]

8. U.S.–Canada & U.S.–Mexico: Fraying Ties, Shifting Power Dynamics

[40:00]

• U.S.-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA) was an early Trump success, but relations are now testier, with Trump inflicting “self-harm” (plummeting Canadian tourism, economic damage, [41:53]).
• Mexico’s President is managing Trump better than some leaders, sacrificing on border security and Chinese investment, but US “hardball” worries smaller neighbors.

9. Venezuela Crisis: Speculation About Military Strikes

[46:06]

• U.S. military build-up off Venezuela not just about narco-trafficking—represents ideological confrontation with regional leftist regimes (“chaos is a real option” akin to Libya/Iraq).

10. Russia–Ukraine: Failed Trump-Putin Engagement

[50:19]

• Trump’s belief in leveraging his personal relationship with Putin failed. He’s now had to take a tougher stance, authorizing more direct support and arms sales to Ukraine:

  “Putin was absolutely uninterested in moving an inch on a ceasefire and kind of humiliated Trump, honestly.”
  — Ian Bremmer [50:22]

• Ongoing war likely to escalate, with European frontline states deeply concerned about Russian asymmetric (hybrid) warfare.

NATO Implications

• [57:34] European allies now contribute more to NATO defense, but trust has eroded:

  “We’re clearly better off because the Europeans are spending more … but the damage that’s being done to a lot of the relationships is real and is gonna be persistent for a long, long time.”
  — Ian Bremmer [57:34]

11. Short-termism, Alliances, and American Decline

[59:58]

• America’s short-term focus and transactional posture are damaging the soft power and trust that have underpinned U.S. alliances and global leadership for decades.

  “It’s not death by a thousand cuts, but it’s a lot of injury by a thousand cuts.”
  — Ian Bremmer [62:17]

• As allied economies weaken, America’s path could be to strengthen, not undermine allies:

  “We want the EU to be stronger because a stronger EU is more capable of being a useful ally … That’s a long term perspective where short term Trump is like, of course I want, you know, sort of the AfD [German far right].”
  — Ian Bremmer [63:58]

12. Globalization and the Shifting US Role

[65:55]

• The U.S. is no longer the engine of globalization; there is active decoupling from China and pressure on third countries to “pick sides.”

• The American political system—the former global model—is now seen as dysfunctional, eroding soft power.

  “Nobody around the world looks at the US political system [and] says, I wish my political system ran like that, in 35 years.”
  — Ian Bremmer [67:26]

13. Cronyism, Crony Capitalism, and Loss of American Moral Authority

[68:38]

• The U.S. is now frequently seen as a country supporting cronyism and state corruption:

  “People looking at the US and saying this is a country that supports kleptocracy, … state corruption.”
  — Ian Bremmer [69:13]

• Newsom: “They're selling out what makes the United States so central and so important.”

14. On the Erosion of American Institutions and Global Trust

[71:01]

• U.S. withdrawal from supporting the U.N. signals discomfort with the values it once championed.

• U.S. reliability, foreign aid, and collective security guarantees are deteriorating.

  “They do need US-led multilateral trade, because otherwise … they don’t have the ability to operate in a global system that is a law of the jungle. They just don’t.”
  — Ian Bremmer [71:41]

15. AI: Global Race, American Anxiety

[73:26]

• Bremmer is bullish on AI’s potential for good (efficiency, poverty elimination), but governance and equitable access are key.
• Americans’ fear of AI is actually a fear of bad governance:

  “Americans should be the one that’s the most excited about the technology … And now we have the most transformative technology that humankind has ever come close to creating. And you’re telling me that Americans are scared of it? That is a governance issue.”
  — Ian Bremmer [75:41]

16. The Epstein Files and Erosion of American Trust

[76:40]

• Bremmer on public outrage:

  “What Epstein represents to Americans are these assholes can get away with anything.”
  — Ian Bremmer [77:25]

• The scandal symbolizes a broader loss of faith in elites, justice, and shared accountability.

17. Closing on Hope: Generational and Global Shifts

[79:55]

• Bremmer’s optimism comes from younger generations (“they’re more global; they care more about the climate; they’re skeptical in a healthy way”).

  “They’re not just going to sit [around] … they’re going to do something. And demographically, they’re going to be in charge.”
  — Ian Bremmer [81:32]

NOTABLE QUOTES & MEMORABLE MOMENTS

On American Instability

“It’s the question of what does the United States want? It’s whiplash from one administration to the next.”
— Ian Bremmer [05:37]

On Trump as Revolutionary

“He [Trump] wants to fundamentally change the US Political system so there are no longer checks and balances … from inside the administration, from the party or the administrative state, or from the judiciary. Or from the media.”
— Ian Bremmer [08:17]

On U.S.-China Economic Power

“In China, the state captures the corporations. In the United States, the corporations capture the state.”
— Ian Bremmer [09:46]

On Saudi Arabia

“If there were elections in Saudi Arabia, [MBS] would almost certainly win … Women were 11% of the workforce 10 years ago, now 36% in 10 years. It’s like a reverse Iranian revolution.”
— Ian Bremmer [16:56]

On Israel/Palestine Progress

“To go from a position where the United States had been almost isolated completely on the global stage in its support to Israel, to having the U.S. lead diplomacy with the Security Council voting in favor… that’s an extraordinary win.”
— Ian Bremmer [22:07]

On Global Perceptions of U.S.

“Nobody around the world looks at the US political system [and] says, I wish my political system ran like that, in 35 years.”
— Ian Bremmer [67:26]

On Cronyism and Corruption

“Increasingly people looking at the US and saying this is a country that supports kleptocracy, state corruption.”
— Ian Bremmer [69:13]

On Generational Hope

“They’re far more opportunities to connect with their fellow human beings. Why do [young people] care more about climate? Because they’re the ones inheriting the world.”
— Ian Bremmer [79:55]

TIMESTAMPS FOR KEY SEGMENTS

• Introduction to U.S. Instability: [05:05–06:18]
• Trump’s Political Revolution: [06:18–09:02]
• State Capitalism & U.S.-China Comparison: [09:02–10:30]
• Trade Wars/Tariffs/China Reality: [11:02–14:22]
• Saudi Arabia, Abraham Accords: [16:46–19:44]
• Middle East: Gaza, Lebanon, Iran: [23:49–27:57]
• China Strategy/Decoupling: [33:22–40:00]
• Canada/Mexico/USMCA: [40:00–45:17]
• Venezuela & Ideological Showdown: [46:03–49:46]
• Russia-Ukraine/NATO Consequences: [50:00–57:34]
• Short-termism & Long-term Damage: [59:58–63:58]
• Globalization’s Shift: [65:55–68:04]
• Cronyism & Institutional Decay: [68:38–71:41]
• AI & Future Leadership: [73:26–76:17]
• Epstein Files & Public Disgust: [76:40–79:26]
• A Note of Optimism: [79:55–81:33]

TONE & STYLE

• Analytical, direct, and adversarial at times—but always respectful, honest, and focused on solutions
• Rich with policy detail, geopolitical analysis, and clear-eyed realism, balanced by occasional humor (“Trump signature series knee pads” — Newsom [69:35])
• Newsom plays both interviewer and opponent, challenging and clarifying throughout

USEFUL FOR…

• Understanding how America’s changing posture under Trump is reshaping global alliances, trust, and values
• Assessing the limits of U.S. influence in a multipolar and cynical world
• Gaining nuanced insights into the intersection of foreign policy, economics, technology, and governance
• Appreciating contemporary generational divides and sources of hope for global cooperation