Podcast Summary

Podcast: This is Gavin Newsom
Episode: And, This Is How Trump Loses His Base with Tim Miller of The Bulwark
Date: December 12, 2025
Host: Gavin Newsom
Guest: Tim Miller (Writer, Political Commentator, The Bulwark)
Main Theme:
A fearless, candid conversation between Democrat Gavin Newsom and ex-Republican operative Tim Miller, exploring how Donald Trump gained and could lose his base, the shifts in American political culture, how the Democratic Party misunderstands Red America and young men, and what both parties need to do to remain relevant.

Overview & Main Purpose

Governor Gavin Newsom hosts Tim Miller for an unvarnished discussion about the “Trump coalition,” the failures and weaknesses of both parties, and the cultural dynamics shaping the electorate. The conversation is self-critical, focused on honest reflection, and aims to unpack how Trump’s appeal was forged, where it is faltering, and what Democrats too often miss.

Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. Media, Content, and Staying Relevant

• Tim Miller’s Daily Routine:

  • Miller describes the content “grind” of contemporary commentary, toggling between podcasting, parenting, and keeping up with all media—from Axios and Politico newsletters to MAGA podcasts.
  • Quote:

    “I'm like just, just either consuming other people's stuff or taping stuff in the evening... I’m deep in the Magaverse.” — Tim Miller [05:07]

• On Fox News Consumption:

  • Miller prefers not to expose his family to Fox but binges it on planes/hotels “to see what those guys are talking about.”
  • Quote:

    “People sitting next to me on the plane... might think I'm a MAGA because that's when I get my Fox fix.” — Tim Miller [06:33]

2. Origins & Growth of The Bulwark / The “Never Trump” Movement

• The Bulwark was created as a home for “Never Trump” conservatives after the Weekly Standard was shut down for its anti-Trump stance.
  • Initial aim: Provide blunt honesty without job-seeking ulterior motives.
  • Quote:

    “I think it was... mostly that it just felt like we weren't bullshitting them... The fact that we were former Republicans and... without a home gave us a freedom.” — Tim Miller [08:29]

3. Tim Miller’s Break with the GOP & Trump

• Miller recalls having genuine hope in Republican ideals (American exceptionalism, free markets, “shining city on a hill”).
• Trump, he says, was always anathema—long before the famous escalator.
  • Quote:

    “I didn’t like Trump from the second... I didn’t like him back in 2012... I just found him totally repulsive on every level from the second I saw him.” — Tim Miller [14:24]

• Miller admits underestimating Trump’s ability to mobilize working-class whites, and later, minority communities.
  • Quote:

    “Trump got a working-class white vote that was just off the charts—and then, by ‘24, better with working-class black and brown voters too.” — Tim Miller [16:25]

4. Forensics: Why Did So Many in the GOP Establishment “Bend the Knee” to Trump?

• Driven by status, relevance, and belonging in the “mix” in DC, plus fear of losing power or meaning.
• Political class struggles to admit “your side is the bad side.”
  • Notable Quote:

    “You get into a club in DC and you don't want to have to admit your side is the bad side. You want to feel like you matter, even if that means going along with something you know is wrong.” — Tim Miller [19:35]

• Newsom and Miller liken the urgency for meaning to the “lights turning off” after political office.
  • Quote:

    “Chris Christie... said... you leave the governor’s office and the lights turn off and nobody’s calling you anymore.” — Tim Miller [22:30]

  • Newsom shares personal anecdotes of the abrupt end to power as mayor and the humility it instills. [24:10]

5. Trump’s Secret Sauce: The Anti-Politician Persona

• Trump’s appeal is tied to the notion that he’s “not a conventional politician,” self-funding, and doing it “for you.”

  • Quote:

    “He exudes it... people feel let down by regular politics... and Trump just does not seem like he’s a normal politician.” — Tim Miller [27:48]

• Democrats often mis-read what is actually resonating with voters.

6. Democratic Party’s Disconnect with Red America & Young (Especially Male) Voters

• Miller criticizes Democrats for failing to compete in Red States and losing cultural connection.
  • Quote:

    “Democrats understand the importance of representation—except for conservative Americans or men and young men... You’ve got to show up.” — Tim Miller [33:33]

• Advocates for greater ideological diversity, including heterodox positions and embracing populist or moderate stances on selected issues—“let a thousand flowers bloom.”
  • Quote:

    “Trump moderated on some things... He ran against the establishment of the party from the left and the right.” — Tim Miller [34:54]

7. Asymmetry in Communications & Culture

• Miller notes that “right-leaning cultural stuff” now dominates podcasts and online personalities—even more than traditional partisan propaganda.
  • List: Joe Rogan, Theo Von, Sean Ryan (etc.)
• Cultural authority has shifted:
  • “The Democrats were the cool ones; now they’re the suits, the scolds, the establishment. Republicans became the ones who are like, go out... party... make out with whoever you want...” — Tim Miller [45:00]
• The impact of COVID-19, “anti-woke” backlash, and comedians’ “cancel culture” anxieties shifted the cultural current rightward.

8. Young Men, Alienation, and Turning Point USA

• Miller shares first-hand observations of Turning Point USA events, noting the shift from traditional “policy nerd” conservatism to youthful, party-like, anti-elite gatherings.
  • New priorities among young conservatives: anti-war, anti-woke, anti-immigrant—less focus on tax cuts, strong military.
  • Newsom emphasizes this as “Code Red.”
    • “If this was any other [group], Democrats would be in crisis mode. But for whatever reason, young men — we feel like that’s verboten.” — Gavin Newsom [57:00]
• Both speakers stress the importance of consciously reaching out to young men, especially those feeling adrift or economically insecure, lest they gravitate to alt-right figures or toxic influencers like Andrew Tate.

9. How Trump Starts to Lose His Base (And How Dems Should Respond)

• Trump’s current vulnerabilities:
  • Out-of-touch foreign policy moves (“bombing boats in the Caribbean,” “Peace Prize” obsession)
  • Economic mismanagement (tariffs hitting prices for everyday Americans)
  • Distracted focus, few trips to Red America, less cultural connectivity
  • Quote:

    “Trump’s about to make it easy. He’s making normal politician mistakes... getting out of touch with what his voters want.” — Tim Miller [64:28]

• Opportunity:
  • Democrats should double down on listening to disaffected Trump voters, not condescend or gloat, but show genuine responsiveness—particularly on economic and cultural anxiety.

Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• On status and political meaning:

  “You realize your status today... it’s the desk, it’s the phone. It ain’t about you, brother.” — Gavin Newsom [24:10]

• On Democratic messaging:

  “Just use the same lessons you get from reaching out to any other group. Showing up matters, representation matters. Just do... same for these guys.” — Tim Miller [62:15]

• On the alienation of young men:

  “If you go to a morgue, five bodies, four of them are men from suicide... I don’t think our party, my party, is doing enough to address.” — Gavin Newsom [63:06]

• On Trump’s appeal and current failures:

  “He’s losing people that were in his coalition on economic stuff and also on immigration.” — Tim Miller [67:03]

Key Timestamps

| Timestamp | Segment/Topic | |-----------|----------------------------------------------------------------------------| | 03:42 | Tim Miller’s content grind & day-to-day as a political commentator | | 07:18 | Birth of The Bulwark; Never Trump movement | | 11:06 | Miller’s earnest entry into GOP; why Trump always repelled him | | 18:51 | Why the GOP Establishment caved to Trump—D.C. status & self-preservation | | 22:30 | Life after office: Christie & Newsom mourn and reflect on loss of power | | 25:27 | Newsom on what should count in politics (meaning, accountability, risk) | | 26:10 | The Trump “anti-politician” persona and its effectiveness | | 33:33 | Democrats’ failure to connect in Red States/with young men | | 34:54 | The value of ideological heterodoxy and running “against the establishment”| | 41:05 | Asymmetry in communications & cultural authority shifting right | | 51:14 | Turning Point USA: firsthand from Miller, and cultural strategies | | 57:00 | “Code Red”—both stress urgency of addressing young male alienation | | 64:28 | How Trump is now losing his touch with his base; Dems' opportunity | | 68:52 | House & Senate outlook, reflecting on Democratic complacency |

Flow & Tone

• Candid, self-aware, witty, and at times self-deprecating.
• Both Newsom and Miller model honest, good-faith disagreement and critique—without dehumanizing the other.
• Miller is blunt and funny; Newsom is reflective and always brings the conversation back to practical political implications.

Conclusion

This episode is a masterclass in candid political discussion across the aisle, offering deep insight into how Trump’s coalition was formed and now frays, as well as the ways Democrats miss—culturally, geographically, and generationally. Both Newsom and Miller focus on practical lessons for politicians who hope to actually connect, rather than perform. Listeners walk away with a nuanced understanding of the changing American political/cultural terrain, urgent challenges for reaching young men, and why Democrats can’t afford complacency—Trump’s own missteps have opened a door, but it’s only open if the Democrats truly step through it.