Podcast Summary: "This is Gavin Newsom"
Episode: "And, This is Richard Haass"
Release Date: June 26, 2025
Host: Gavin Newsom
Guest: Richard Haass
Knowledge Cutoff: October 2023

Introduction

In this compelling episode of "This is Gavin Newsom," Governor Gavin Newsom engages in a profound conversation with renowned foreign policy expert Richard Haass. The discussion delves into pressing global issues, including NATO dynamics, U.S. foreign policy under the Trump administration, nuclear proliferation concerns with Iran, and the evolving geopolitical landscape. The dialogue is structured to foster honest and respectful debate, aligning with the podcast's mission to bridge agreeable and dissenting viewpoints.

NATO Summit and European Defense Spending

Key Discussion Points:

• Trump's Push for NATO Contribution: Gavin initiates the conversation by referencing President Trump's long-standing effort to increase NATO members' defense spending from 2% to 5% of GDP. He inquires about Haass's takeaways from the recent NATO summit and whether Trump's actions warrant praise.

• European Defense Spending Efficiency: Richard Haass acknowledges Trump's role in encouraging European nations to elevate their defense expenditures. However, he emphasizes that "how you spend money is almost always more important than how much you spend" (05:10). Haass criticizes the lack of cohesive spending strategies among European countries, suggesting that individual national expenditures result in suboptimal collective defense capabilities.

• Germany's Strategic Shift: Haass highlights Germany's significant policy change, allowing it to raise substantial debt to boost both its economy and national security (05:52). He posits that under the new Chancellor Merz, Germany is poised to take a leadership role in Europe, especially as other nations like France and the UK remain domestically focused.

• Article 5 Concerns: The conversation shifts to the implications of Trump's ambiguous stance on Article 5 of the NATO treaty. Haass asserts that "President Trump has introduced a significant degree of uncertainty into that, which I think is counterproductive" (07:20). He underscores the importance of predictability and reliability in alliances to deter adversaries like Russia.

Notable Quotes:

• Haass: "In public policy, how you spend money is almost always more important than how much you spend." (00:55)

• Haass: "The non-Proliferation Treaty is only a small piece of the effort against non-proliferation... the biggest non-proliferation tool out there is not the treaty. It's called America's alliances." (13:11)

Iran's Nuclear Program and U.S. Foreign Policy

Key Discussion Points:

• Assessment of Recent U.S. Military Actions: Gavin questions the effectiveness of recent bombings targeting Iran's nuclear facilities, seeking Haass's view on whether these actions were a success.

• Survival of Iran's Nuclear Elements: Haass expresses skepticism about the complete eradication of Iran's nuclear program, noting, "I think what Israel and then the United States did was warranted... But I would think that a lot of Iranian leaders have said, 'This never would have happened had we had nuclear weapons.'" (09:06). He warns that such actions might "accelerate that program with the darkness, meaning without any international inspectors."

• Impact on the Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT): The discussion explores whether the U.S. actions jeopardize the integrity of the NPT. Haass contends that the treaty has inherent weaknesses and that "we shouldn't exaggerate its impact... Iran is going to do what it wants regardless of its obligations under this treaty." (11:53)

• Future of Iran's Nuclear Ambitions: Haass speculates that Iran's determination to develop nuclear weapons may intensify, especially if leaders believe nuclear arms would enhance their strategic deterrence against countries like Israel and the U.S.

Notable Quotes:

• Haass: "Probably the president doesn't know what amount of uranium or number of centrifuges and so forth are under some roof of some warehouse in some other part of Iran." (09:18)

• Haass: "It's not normal that problems get solved... Your friends know you'll be there for them, and just as important, your enemies know you'll be there for your friends." (08:35)

The Trump Doctrine and American Foreign Policy

Key Discussion Points:

• Defining the Trump Doctrine: Gavin probes into the nature of the Trump administration's foreign policy, questioning its alignment with established doctrines like the Monroe or Truman doctrines.

• America First Policy Characteristics: Haass describes the "Trumpian foreign policy" as "unilateral, almost amoral," focusing solely on American interests without the emphasis on spreading democracy or human rights abroad (27:28). He notes that this approach leads to "unpredictable outcomes," contrasting with traditional doctrines that aim for clearer, more predictable strategies.

• Impact on Alliances and Global Stability: The discussion touches upon how the America First stance disrupts longstanding alliances and creates uncertainties among U.S. partners. Haass warns that such unpredictability could embolden adversaries like Russia to "take risks."

• Potential for Regime Change: Haass expresses skepticism about the feasibility and wisdom of pursuing regime change in countries like Iran, labeling it more as a wish than a viable strategy. He argues that "no president can give the order to say... get me regime change in Iran." (15:33)

Notable Quotes:

• Haass: "This is just the opposite. This is a look the other way foreign policy. What you do inside your borders is your business." (28:52)

• Haass: "Doctrines have to explain and predict. So I'm not quite sure yet we have anything that quite rises to that level." (28:52)

Geopolitical Dynamics: Russia, China, and Taiwan

Key Discussion Points:

• Russia's Position Post-Siege Actions: Haass assesses Vladimir Putin's stance following recent military maneuvers in Ukraine, suggesting a mixed outcome. While Putin may feel bolstered by perceived U.S. distractions, Haass also points out uncertainties regarding Russia's long-term strategies (29:45).

• China's Nuclear Expansion and Taiwan Tensions: The conversation pivots to China's rapid nuclear arsenal growth and its implications for Taiwan. Haass posits that China is cautious about engaging in conflict over Taiwan until it can "offset or deter any American pressure because of our nuclear advantages." He forecasts that China is unlikely to challenge Taiwan imminently but is aggressively building its nuclear capabilities.

• Taiwan's Defensive Posture: Haass critiques Taiwan's current defense strategies, advocating for a shift towards deploying more "smaller, cheaper systems" rather than relying on a limited number of expensive military assets. He emphasizes the need for Taiwan to enhance its defense efforts to deter Chinese aggression effectively.

• Japan's Strategic Importance: Haass underscores Japan as a crucial ally in the Asia-Pacific region but expresses concern over recent deteriorations in U.S.-Japan relations. He warns that weakening alliances could embolden adversaries like China and undermine regional stability.

Notable Quotes:

• Haass: "They want to get... the world's fastest growing nuclear arsenal. They're adding hundreds and hundreds of nuclear weapons each year." (33:49)

• Haass: "The other country to really watch there is Japan. I actually think we're at a moment in history where Japan's our most important ally." (36:17)

Broader Foreign Policy Critique and Future Outlook

Key Discussion Points:

• Overemphasis on the Middle East: Haass criticizes the disproportionate focus of U.S. foreign policy on the Middle East, arguing that "the biggest problems there are internal, their governance... can the Mexican government meet the responsibilities and challenges of sovereignty within Mexico?" He advocates for shifting attention towards regions like Europe and the Asia-Pacific, where "Asia Pacific is where the people are, it's where the wealth is, it's where the militaries are going to be."

• Africa and Latin America's Strategic Importance: The conversation touches on the often-overlooked significance of Africa's demographics and Latin America's internal challenges. Haass highlights Africa's population growth and the critical need for economic and governance improvements, while also addressing issues like governance and crime in Latin America.

• Defining the Future National Doctrine: When questioned about the absence of a clear Trump Doctrine, Haass reflects on how current policies deviate from traditional doctrines, emphasizing an "amoral quality" and "look the other way" approach. He suggests that without coherent doctrine, U.S. foreign policy risks becoming unpredictable and less effective.

• Democracy and Domestic Challenges: The episode concludes with a discussion on the state of American democracy, the importance of civic education, and the need for active citizen participation to safeguard democratic institutions against emerging threats.

Notable Quotes:

• Haass: "The reality is, we have been for decades and decades and decades bogged down in the Middle East." (48:21)

• Haass: "The fact that we have to have this conversation tells you something. I'm uneasy." (64:46)

Conclusion

In this insightful episode, Gavin Newsom and Richard Haass navigate the complexities of contemporary international relations and U.S. foreign policy. Haass provides a critical lens on the Trump administration's approach, emphasizing the need for clear, strategic doctrines that prioritize global stability and effective alliances. The dialogue underscores the importance of addressing internal governance issues in key regions and reflects on the broader implications for democracy and global security.

Notable Timestamps and Quotes

• [00:55] Haass: "In public policy, how you spend money is almost always more important than how much you spend."

• [05:10] Haass: "The problem with European defense is not just that they spend too little, but each country pretty much determines how it spends its defense... So I would be pushing, if I were advising the president, I would say, yeah, push them to do more, but secondly, also push them to become more European rather than country by country."

• [07:20] Haass: "The non-Proliferation Treaty is only a small piece of the effort against non-proliferation... the biggest non-proliferation tool out there is not the treaty. It's called America's alliances."

• [09:06] Haass: "I think going forward, Devin, we have got to assume just the opposite, that the Iranian program was not obliterated, but elements of that program exist."

• [13:11] Haass: "We should find a way to help these countries meet their challenges because it's good for them, but it's also good for us."

• [27:28] Haass: "This is a look the other way foreign policy. What you do inside your borders is your business."

• [36:17] Haass: "Japan is our most important ally, still the world's third largest economy. And militarily it's central to any scenario involving Chinese pressure against Taiwan."

• [48:21] Haass: "The fact that we have to have this conversation tells you something. I'm uneasy."

• [64:46] Haass: "The other thing is defiance of decisions by the judiciary and again, some of the quasi defiance, not quite hearing what the courts were saying."

Note: This summary focuses exclusively on the substantive content of the conversation between Gavin Newsom and Richard Haass, omitting advertisements, promotions, and non-relevant sections to provide a clear and comprehensive overview of the episode's key discussions.