Podcast Summary:

This is Gavin Newsom — The Briefing: "Get Me Regime Change In Iran"
Host: Gavin Newsom
Guest: Richard Haass
Date: April 10, 2026
Podcast Network: iHeartPodcasts

Episode Overview

In this episode, Governor Gavin Newsom interviews Richard Haass, former President of the Council on Foreign Relations, on urgent global issues unfolding in the Middle East, particularly the recent U.S. and Israeli military action against Iran and the international response. The discussion also explores shifting leadership within NATO, the future of non-proliferation, the limitations of regime change, and the challenge of maintaining global alliances.

Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. **NATO, European Defense Spending, and Trump’s Role

(Timestamps: 02:30–08:08)**

• NATO Summit and Trump’s Influence:

  • Newsom opens with reflections on the NATO summit, where President Trump successfully pushed NATO nations to consider raising their defense spending targets from 2% to 5%.
  • Haass acknowledges Trump’s pressure was effective:

    “President Trump deserves credit for spurring the Europeans to do what they ought to have done years before. … But each country determines how it spends its defense euros. The whole ends up being less than the sum of its parts.” ([03:09], Richard Haass)

  • Discussion highlights the critical point: Rather than just the quantity, how defense funds are spent is more important.

• German Leadership in Europe:

  • Germany’s change in financial policy allows it to raise significant debt—implying a potential shift in European leadership:

    “The most interesting figure in Europe right now is the new chancellor of Germany... I actually think that Chancellor Mertz is in a position to, in some ways, have Germany stake out the leadership position in Europe…” ([05:26], Richard Haass)

• Reliability of Article 5 (Collective Defense):

  • Newsom pushes on the anxiety President Trump causes regarding Article 5.
  • Haass warns unpredictability is harmful to alliances:

    “Alliances depend upon predictability and reliability and dependability, and I would argue that President Trump has introduced a significant degree of uncertainty… The best way to deter is through certainty.” ([06:54], Richard Haass)

2. **U.S. and Israeli Strikes on Iran's Nuclear Program

(Timestamps: 08:08–11:27)**

• Assessment of the Bombings:

  • Newsom and Haass consider the effectiveness of recent military actions against Iranian nuclear facilities.
  • Haass’s grave assessment:

    “For years, we've been playing this game with the Iranians ... We also understood we couldn't allow Iran to get on the threshold, much less have nuclear weapons... I think what Israel and then the United States did was warranted ... the Iranian program was not obliterated.” ([08:40], Richard Haass)

• Risk of Iran Accelerating Its Nuclear Program:

  • Haass worries the strikes might encourage Iran to pursue nuclear weapons more aggressively for deterrence purposes:

    “A lot of Iranian leaders have said, hey, this never would have happened had we had nuclear weapons. ... their determination to develop nuclear weapons, that might, if anything, be even greater.” ([08:40], Richard Haass)

3. **Non-Proliferation Treaty and Its Weaknesses

(Timestamps: 11:27–12:45)**

• Faith in the Treaty:
  • Newsom raises concerns that bombing a signatory nation (Iran) might undermine the Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT).
  • Haass is skeptical of the treaty’s actual power:

    “The Non Proliferation Treaty is only a small piece of the effort against non proliferation. … the entire treaty in that sense is based upon a degree of faith that I tend not to have.” ([11:27], Richard Haass)

  • He asserts alliances—not treaties—are the real bulwark:

    “Turns out the most important non-proliferation tool out there is not the treaty. It’s called America’s alliances.” ([12:45], Richard Haass)

4. **Prospects for Regime Change & Limits of Military Solutions

(Timestamps: 12:45–15:46)**

• Regime Change as a “Wish, Not a Strategy”:

  • Newsom asks whether the idea of regime change in Iran is a serious policy option.
  • Haass offers a sobering reality check:

    "People say, what's left? Well, let's get a benign government ... The problem is it's easier to talk about it than bring it about ... It's a wish more than a strategy." ([13:27], Richard Haass)

  • He asserts U.S. presidents can't “order regime change”:

    "No president can give the order to say Secretary of Defense or State and say, get me regime change in Iran. They wouldn't have then the tools to necessarily carry it out." ([13:27], Richard Haass)

• Solutions vs. Management:

  • Haass reflects on the limits of foreign policy 'solutions’:

    “It’s not normal that problems get solved. ... I used to discourage the fellows from using the word solve or solution because that’s just the way history works.” ([13:27], Richard Haass)

5. **Iran’s Nuclear Capabilities and Israeli Policy

(Timestamps: 15:07–18:19)**

• Is Iran Really Close to a Nuclear Weapon?:

  • Newsom voices skepticism over endless warnings from Israel about Iran being “months away.”
  • Haass confirms this time is different:

    “This was a gathering threat. … they had done most of the enrichment work they need to do to get it uranium enriched, plus or minus 60%. That’s not just 60% of the effort. That’s actually closer to 90% ...” ([15:46], Richard Haass)

• Political Impact for Netanyahu:

  • Newsom wonders if recent events bolster Netanyahu’s political standing.
  • Haass notes Israel’s political unity on Iran:

    “They are not divided on Iran, left and right, hawk and dove. … Bibi Netanyahu in the last, what, 18 months has dramatically reduced the external threat to Israel.” ([17:20], Richard Haass)

Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• On Trump’s NATO Policy:

  “How you spend money is almost always more important than how much you spend.” ([03:09], Richard Haass)

• On Deterioration of Alliances:

  “The best way to deter is through certainty.” ([06:54], Richard Haass)

• On Iran’s Likely Nuclear Pursuit:

  “A lot of Iranian leaders have said, hey, this never would have happened had we had nuclear weapons.” ([08:40], Richard Haass)

• On Regime Change:

  “It’s a wish more than a strategy.” ([13:27], Richard Haass)

• On Historical Solutions:

  “It’s not normal that problems get solved. … that’s just the way history works.” ([13:27], Richard Haass)

• On Israeli Political Unity:

  “They are not divided on Iran, left and right, hawk and dove.” ([17:20], Richard Haass)

Timestamps for Important Segments

| Timestamp | Topic/Segment | |-----------|----------------------------------| | 02:30 | Opening, NATO defense spending | | 05:26 | German leadership in Europe | | 06:54 | Article 5 and alliance reliability| | 08:08 | U.S./Israel bombing Iran | | 11:27 | Non-Proliferation Treaty critique| | 12:45 | Regime change in Iran | | 15:46 | Iranian nuclear threat specifics | | 17:20 | Israeli politics, Netanyahu |

Summary Tone

The conversation is frank, analytic, and non-partisan. Newsom and Haass avoid sensationalism and focus on the pragmatic limits of foreign policy levers—calling out both successes and risks, and often deconstructing popular political talking points with sober skepticism.

This episode provides a deeply informed look at America’s strategic challenges in the Middle East and Europe, while emphasizing the dangers of overconfidence in military solutions and treaty-based assurances. It’s a valuable listen (or read) for anyone seeking to understand the real limits and realities of U.S. foreign policy today.