Podcast Summary: This Week in Global Development

Episode: A Look Ahead to the High-Level Meetings of the 80th United Nations General Assembly

Date: September 19, 2025
Hosts: David Ainsworth, Adva Saldinger, Rumbi Chakamba
Guests: Colum Lynch (senior global reporter, UN specialist), Alison Lombardo (resident fellow at CSIS, former Deputy Assistant Secretary at the State Department for International Organizations)

Episode Overview

This special episode previews the major themes and high-stakes issues heading into the 80th United Nations General Assembly (UNGA) session. Hosts and expert guests examine the weakening ties between the US and the UN, the impact of US funding cuts, the unresolved situation in Gaza, challenges to multilateralism, China’s growing influence, and the likely dynamics playing out in high-level meetings.

Key Discussion Points and Insights

1. The US-UN Relationship in Crisis

• Dominant Theme: The direction of US-UN relations is the central, looming issue overshadowing the Assembly.
• Uncertainty Drives Diplomacy: World leaders are eager to assess the US position, especially anticipating President Trump's statements.

  "The three key topics are Donald Trump, Donald Trump, and Donald Trump. Right. ...everybody is waiting to get clarity on where the United States is in terms of its relationship with the United Nations."
  — Colum Lynch [01:12]

1.1 US Financial Cuts to the UN

• Major reductions in contribution: The White House budget for 2026 proposes near-total elimination of US funding for the UN, including peacekeeping (despite active US diplomacy on related missions) and humanitarian agencies like WFP and UNHCR.

• Disconnect between Policy and Diplomacy:

  "The White House is sending a pretty clear message... they want to cut out most funding to the UN... Strange thing is, while they're taking this position, their diplomats in New York are actually supporting peacekeeping."
  — Colum Lynch [02:04]

• Immediate Impact: US will pay only half of its dues for last year, indicating the financial pain starts now.

  "The United States is only paying half of what it owes the UN for last year. So, the pain is immediate."
  — Alison Lombardo [06:13]

1.2 What Funds Are at Risk?

• Mandatory assessed contributions (general membership dues)

• Peacekeeping assessments

• Voluntary contributions to programs and agencies

  "The current proposal from the executive branch here is to not pay membership dues. That's in the House bill right now."
  — Alison Lombardo [13:17]

• Consequences: If dues go unpaid for two years, the US could lose its General Assembly vote (though Security Council seat is unaffected).

  "...if you owe more than you have to pay over the course of two years, you lose your vote in the General Assembly."
  — Alison Lombardo [13:45]

• Broader Ecosystem Impact: US funding cuts hit international NGOs, cluster systems, and many aid organizations, dramatically shrinking the humanitarian ecosystem.

  "Even if you see a few hundred million trickling out to WFP and other places... all of the organizations will be... dramatically reduced in funding, really putting pressure on the UN to figure out what the new ecosystem looks like."
  — Alison Lombardo [07:41]

1.3 Political and Decision-Making Confusion

• Trump Administration Approach: Highly transactional (selectively supporting organizations that directly serve American economic or security interests), increasingly ideological (focus on anti-DEI and culture war issues at the UN, such as objecting to the word "gender" in UN texts).

  "The best we will get is a transactional approach... At best, and ideological at worst."
  — Alison Lombardo [11:30]

• Leadership Vacuum:

  "It's hard to see where the decision making is happening... There isn't going to be foreign service personnel at the senior levels... So you don't have kind of traditional diplomatic figure in play."
  — Colum Lynch [09:23]

2. The Shifting Multilateral Landscape

2.1 China’s Growing Role

• China steps up—in some ways: China is asking for a bigger share of UN jobs and more influence, highlighting how close it now comes to matching the US in financial contributions.

  "Our share of the UN budget is now approaching the Americans."
  — Colum Lynch quoting Chinese arguments [16:09]

• But with limits: China also pushes for budget restraint in the same areas as the US, mostly on security and expensive core functions.

  "When you get into these closed door budget negotiations, they sound a lot like the Americans, right? They want cuts in peacekeeping."
  — Colum Lynch [21:30]

• Strategic Gaps: China is not eager to take up full leadership of the international system, but is building influence, especially with the Global South and within groups like the G77.

  "At the same time, though, the Chinese don't seem like they're keen to replace the Americans as the leader of the international system."
  — Colum Lynch [20:42]

2.2 Erosion of American Influence

• Policy choices open the door for others: US withdrawals from institutions (e.g., Human Rights Council, UNESCO) and rejection of the Sustainable Development Goals let China position itself as a leader with developing countries.
• Global Initiatives Moving Ahead Without US: Recent agreements and reforms (e.g., pandemic agreement, financing for development) have happened despite an absent or disengaged US.

3. What to Expect at the 80th UN General Assembly (UNGA)

3.1 Main Issues Likely to Dominate

• Palestinian Statehood: General Assembly debate on recognizing Palestine as a state will be central, with major powers considering recognition, US and Israeli resistance, and possible repercussions.

  "The big thing is going to be Palestinian statehood, right? ...That is going to really come to a boil next week."
  — Colum Lynch [22:44]

• Gaza Crisis will take much of the focus, pushing other crises (e.g., Sudan, Ukraine) to the margins.

• Future of Multilateralism: Many expect speeches and private meetings about whether the international system can be saved or if it is breaking down.

  "A series of speeches... on the importance of saving the multilateral system... are we kind of at a tipping point where the system is kind of breaking down?"
  — Colum Lynch [24:44]

3.2 Lower Priority for Key Development Issues

• Humanitarian aid, debt, and governance reforms: Previously high-profile topics (from “pact of the future” discussions, financial architecture reform) will get little or no attention this year.

  "All of that has pretty much, you know, kind of coming apart at the seams."
  — Colum Lynch [27:18]

• Aid funding expected to decline: Humanitarian sector anticipated to shrink by a third, with donor funding increasingly redirected (e.g., European official development aid towards defense).

3.3 Humanitarian and Aid Model Shifts

• Humanitarian funding is in crisis: WFP’s US funding down 90%. Uncertainty about whether alternative aid channels or small amounts of new US funding can patch the gap.

  "WFP, 90% down in US contribution. One billion that should have been with or could have been with UNICEF this year is now not."
  — Alison Lombardo [31:30]

• Emergence of alternatives: New, privatized aid efforts (like the Gaza Humanitarian Foundation) raise concerns about principles and alignment with humanitarian values.

3.4 Notable Side Stories

• Potential Trump-Lula Drama: The “waiting room moment” where Donald Trump and Brazil’s President Lula might meet before their speeches could be a source of diplomatic tension and drama.

  "It’ll be really interesting to see if Trump turns around and if they exchange some pleasantries or they take a couple of swings at one another. But I would love to be hanging out there."
  — Colum Lynch [25:32]

4. The Geopolitical Power Vacuum and Lack of Alternatives

• No Clear Mechanism to Hold US Accountable: The UN and its members have no real plan or power to deal with a near-total US disengagement, and most countries are constrained by other interests (e.g., trade tariffs).

  "There don't seem to be any mechanisms for kind of causing that to happen."
  — David Ainsworth [33:04]

• Europe is Paralyzed: Preoccupied with domestic issues, unable or unwilling to forge a unified approach towards the US.

  "There’s complete paralysis in European capitals because they’re dealing with so many serious problems of their own."
  — David Ainsworth [32:37]

• Money still talks: The US, by withdrawing funding, creates a power vacuum but remains too important to be displaced. Efforts to build alternatives (e.g., BRICS) are not yet ready.

  "This shows the power of money and the degree to which the entire international system was propped up by American taxpayer funding...there’s a vacuum, but there’s no one to fill it."
  — Colum Lynch [33:55]

Highlighted Quotes and Memorable Moments

• On the pervasiveness of the Trump question:
  "The three key topics are Donald Trump, Donald Trump, and Donald Trump."
  — Colum Lynch [01:12]

• On the confusion in US foreign policy:
  "The right budget hand doesn't really know what the political hand is doing."
  — Alison Lombardo [05:04]

• On losing Global South influence:
  "Coming out and saying we're against this long agreed... focus of developing countries doesn't make a ton of sense politically and certainly allows the Chinese to say, 'well, we're the captain of the G77.'"
  — Alison Lombardo [18:22]

• On the Humanitarian funding crisis:
  "We had an interview with Tom Fletcher...he was saying that they anticipate that the humanitarian sector is going to shrink by about a third."
  — Colum Lynch [27:32]

• On the system’s fragility:
  "Maybe this is the beginning... for blocs like the BRICS to try and develop ways to insulate themselves from American financial pressure. But we're not there yet."
  — Colum Lynch [34:45]

Important Timestamps

• [00:00] – Episode and guest introductions; episode overview
• [01:00–04:54] – Key issues preview: US policy confusion, UN funding crisis, Gaza and security concerns
• [05:02–14:48] – Deep-dive: Where the US-UN relationship stands, practical and political mechanics of US disengagement
• [15:24–21:47] – Global power shift: China’s position and reactions by other states; consequences of US withdrawal
• [22:42–25:32] – UNGA agenda: Palestinian statehood, Ukraine, Sudan, prospects for diplomacy
• [26:20–27:11] – What’s missing from the agenda: Aid, debt, decision-making reform
• [29:44–35:06] – Broader impact discussion: Shrinking humanitarian space, European paralysis, BRICS/alternatives
• [25:32] – Memorable “Trump and Lula waiting room” moment

Tone and Style of Discussion

• The tone is candid, at times bluntly pessimistic about the state of global multilateralism and American engagement.
• The speakers blend policy expertise with on-the-ground insights, resulting in clear, insightful commentary peppered with behind-the-scenes anecdotes.

Takeaway

This episode paints a vivid, sobering portrait of a development system at a crossroads, with US disengagement threatening to unravel established structures and leave a vacuum no other actor seems ready—or willing—to fill. As global crises mount, the stakes at the 80th UN General Assembly couldn’t be higher, but hope for transformative progress is dim. The conversation closes with a sense of uncertainty and a warning: the future of global development governance hangs in the balance.