Podcast Episode Summary

This Week in Global Development

Episode: After 2025’s ‘seismic’ shock, what’s next for development and aid?
Date: November 7, 2025
Hosts: Adva Saldinger, David Ainsworth, Rumbi Chakamba (feat. Raj Kumar, Robin Pomeroy)
Guests:

• Carla Haddad Martini (Director of Private Fundraising and Partnerships, UNICEF)
• Julianne (“Julian”) Euler (Co-founder & CEO, Inkomoko)

Main Theme & Purpose

This special episode, in partnership with Radio Davos, tackles the dramatic upheaval in global development and aid funding following a “seismic” financial shock in 2025. Hosts and guests break down the scale and implications of once-unthinkable cuts in official development assistance—triggered by a cascade of political decisions in major donor governments—and discuss how the sector must adapt, spotlighting new models for leveraging private capital, business engagement, and innovative finance to mitigate humanitarian setbacks and sustain progress.

Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. The 2025 Aid Sector Upheaval: A Turning Point

• Nature of the Crisis: The aid and development sector is experiencing unprecedented disruption, compared to the 2008 financial crisis, due to sudden, severe funding cuts from traditional donors (principal among them: the US and UK).
  • “I think we can compare what is happening to our sector across humanitarian and development as to what happened to the financial sector in 2008.” – Carla Haddad Martini (03:07)
• Cascade Effects: The withdrawal of funding initiated a global domino effect, triggering immediate and painful “funding cliffs” across many countries and agencies.

2. Shifting Roles: Private Sector and New Operating Models

• Pivot to Private Capital: Organizations are urgently exploring alternative funding, especially from the private sector, foundations, and affluent individuals.
  • “What we're talking about now is a business model change.” – Raj Kumar (10:40)
• Business as a Lifeline: In contexts like refugee communities, small businesses are stepping in to provide services previously covered by aid organizations, demonstrating the growing importance of market-based solutions.
  • “Businesses are now the lifeline for essential services that were once…funded by NGOs, donors, big UN agencies.” – Julianne Euler (04:39)

3. On the Ground: Realities and Human Impact

• UNICEF's Experience
  • UNICEF's diversified funding (20% private, 80% public) has cushioned some impact, but a 20% funding contraction is still “disheartening.”
  • Real-world effects: In Cox’s Bazar (the world's largest Rohingya refugee camp), education for girls is immediately put at risk by funding cuts, with ripple effects on early marriage and protection risks.
    • “The girls before I left were begging for UNICEF not to close the classroom because what it meant for them if they're not schooled, it's early marriage.” – Carla (07:38)
• Impossible Choices: Agencies must make “impossible decisions” on which services to cut, with development reversals happening in real time.

4. Private Sector: Challenges & Opportunities

• Investor Reluctance & Risk Perceptions: Private investors are still wary due to perceived high risk in funding humanitarian and refugee-hosting markets.
  • “Private sector talks about risk, especially in Africa…there's a risk premium.” – Julianne (15:45)
• Market Reality:
  • Refugee and displaced populations in Africa represent a market of 50 million people with an estimated $82 billion in purchasing power.
  • Inkomoko, as Africa’s largest lender to refugee entrepreneurs, shows a 97% repayment rate, challenging stereotypes of instability and non-viability.
    • “Our refugee clients are better at repaying than the local markets…they don't default because they don't have other options.” – Julianne (19:17)

5. Blended & Innovative Finance

• Blended Finance as a Solution: Merging risk appetites and various types of capital (public, private, philanthropic) to grow funding pools and reduce perceived risk for mainstream investors.
  • “There is actually an answer to that problem… it’s something they call blended finance.” – Raj Kumar (20:09)
• Portfolio & System Approaches: UNICEF’s Child Nutrition Fund uses matched funds (e.g., $500M gift from Jackie Bezos) to catalyze more investment and drive systemic rather than piecemeal project change:
  • “The future is system strengthening so that we have social services that are protected and can deliver for the populations regardless of the situation.” – Carla (24:28)

6. Mindset Shift & Community-Led Response

• Accelerating Local Responsibility: Rapid aid withdrawal means local actors (companies, organizations, communities) must “do whatever it takes,” from providing health insurance for staff to ensuring business continuity despite higher costs.
  • “The risk of not doing business is far greater. We now need to do whatever it takes.” – Julianne (30:33)
• Global South Rising:
  • Growing drive for the Global South itself to step up in funding, partnership, and leadership, moving away from over-reliance on the Global North.
  • “We should not forget the Global south is stepping up too…There is an opportunity now to also get the Global south to react.” – Carla (31:06)

7. Looking Forward: Next Steps and Hopes

• Permanent Shift:
  • There is no going back to pre-2025 aid world; the crisis revealed both underlying weaknesses and opportunities for renewal.
    • “We’re moving from more of an aid model to an investment model. And…it could be a bigger space…though from here to there is going to be a very messy picture.” – Raj Kumar (32:48)
• Advocacy and Accountability:
  • At future high-level meetings (like Davos), participants urge not to let donor governments off the hook for their international commitments and the normative agenda (rights of children, humanitarian law, etc.).
    • “For governments who are in Davos…you have a responsibility…we can't just relieve them of that responsibility.” – Carla (35:22)
• Changing the Narrative:
  • Propose that powerful actors and systems adapt to realities on the ground, not force the world’s vulnerable to fit legacy systems.
    • “Why can't we have the world's most powerful adapt their systems to fit with the needs of the world's most vulnerable?” – Julianne (36:45)
• Future Conversations:
  • Hope for more nuanced debate on security (beyond just military), global architecture, and how to make aid and investment systems fit for contemporary and future challenges.

Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• “It’s a massive disruption. Not that we didn’t see it coming…” – Carla Haddad Martini (03:07)
• “It’s a story about money, right? There’s less money, everybody has to tighten their belts. But it’s much more complex…because the needs have been growing.” – Raj Kumar (10:40)
• “There is no going back. The politics…of saying we got to focus on domestic needs…These are not a one or two year issue.” – Raj Kumar (11:49)
• “We’re overwhelmed with demand. We cannot do all of the investment that these communities need…We need to make the business case for other private sector companies to come in.” – Julianne (15:32)
• “Our refugee clients are better at repaying than the local markets…They don’t default because they don’t have other options.” – Julianne (19:17)
• “What we want is to bring [impact] to the core business of the company…so they bring their core assets to bear to solve global problems.” – Carla (21:28)
• “We shouldn’t sugarcoat how significant the shock to the system really is…there is now more impetus than ever…How do we roll up our sleeves and fix this?” – Raj Kumar (26:35)
• “We need to shift from the mentality of doing what we can to…doing whatever it takes.” – Julianne (28:23)
• “You need to plant a humanitarian mindset on the development side because…the funding cuts are so massive that we will see development reversals.” – Carla (31:06)
• “Ultimately, a decade from now [the funding pie] might be much bigger…though from here to there is going to be a very messy picture.” – Raj Kumar (32:48)
• “Why can’t we have the world’s most powerful adapt their systems to fit with the needs of the world’s most vulnerable?” – Julianne (36:45)
• “My message would be you have a responsibility. Because they are signatories of so many conventions…we can’t just relieve them of that responsibility.” – Carla (35:22)

Timestamps for Key Segments

• Background / Setting the Scene – 00:04–02:27
• The ‘Seismic’ Shock and Funding Crisis Explained – 03:06–05:32
• Private Sector as Lifeline; Inkomoko Model – 04:03–05:32 & 13:45–20:09
• UNICEF's Response, Real Impact on the Ground – 05:32–09:49
• Nature and Implications of Funding Cuts – 09:57–12:58
• Challenges of Scaling Private Investment – 13:09–20:09
• Blended Finance and Systemic Approaches – 20:09–25:25
• Honest Appraisal of Sector's State – 26:35–28:06
• Mindset Shift: ‘Doing whatever it takes’ – 28:06–31:06
• Rise of the Global South and New Partnerships – 31:06–32:48
• From Aid to Investment: The New Model – 32:48–33:38
• Messages and Hopes for Davos & 2026 – 34:24–38:11

Conclusion

This episode offers a candid and timely reflection on a historic shift in the global development and aid landscape. With government funding in retreat and urgent needs rising, the sector is forced to move from traditional aid to investment-based models, blend public and private capital, and empower local actors. The conversation is clear-eyed about the pain and dislocation caused by this shock, but ultimately sees opportunity in crisis—a chance to rebuild stronger, more responsive, and more inclusive systems for the decade ahead.

Recommended for listeners seeking a thorough, accessible breakdown of how global aid is being transformed, the realities on the ground, and the strategies and mindsets shaping the post-2025 future.