
A tale of two continents is unfolding in the global development landscape as Latin America embraces a surge of private investment while Africa grapples with severe economic aftershocks from geopolitical conflict in the Middle East. At the recent...
Loading summary
Dr. Jonathan Moyer
Foreign.
David Ainsworth
My name is David Ainsworth and you're listening to this Week in Global Development hosted by myself, Ramitu Kamba and Adva Saldingh. Hi and welcome to this Week in Global Development. I'm your host, David Ainsworth. I'm the business editor here at delex and I'm joined by two of my colleagues, Jesse Chase Lubitz and Ayan apn, who are here bringing us this week a picture of two different continents facing very different development challenges. So Jesse, we're going to start with you. Let's start off by talking. You were at the IDB meetings all last week and there was some really interesting stuff about what's going on in Latin America. And we'll come to iron at in a minute. We're going to talk about the impact on Africa, all the kind of recent geopolitical kind of global changes. But Jess, we'll, we'll, we'll begin with you. So yeah, idp, tell us all the kind of cool stuff, interesting stuff that happened there. There were a lot of, lot of interesting developments.
Jesse Chase Lubitz
Yeah, absolutely. Great to be here. So, yes, I was in Asuncion, Paraguay last week, which was a really cool place for these Inter American Development bank meetings to be held because it's very much a developing country in that it's like in the process of developing. You could see kind of as I was flying in, I could see these almost like mansion looking things that were right next to dirt roads. You could see a massive, incredible new looking bridge right next to kind of improvised housing. And so it was just a really, it was really cool reporting on this to actually see what that looks like. And overall the conference felt very, very positive. It was a really interesting contrast to what we've been looking at over the last year. People. Everybody I talk to is very complimentary of the bank, even down to civil society who feel like their voices are really being heard by the bank. Also very different from what we typically hear. And I think part of this is that Latin America is just in a really interesting spot. It's not in severe debt distress. It's rich in natural resources like copper and lithium. It has this increasing adoption of clean energy. Hydropower makes up 41% of the continent's energy and I think about 63% is renewables overall, which is pretty incredible. Overall. The strong theme was about private capital and how to attract private capital. The president, Ilan Goldfan, multiple times, I think every time I heard him talk, talked about how there's 1,600 private sector reps there and 300 CEOs. He was really proud of that. And it is a huge amount of people from the private sector. There's this emphasis on really crowding in private investment. The IDB Invest, which is the private sector arm of the bank, also had a capital increase that was announced two years ago, but finalized at these meetings. And the US actually signed on to that capital increase too. So overall we were just like, okay, everything's kind of working here. And yeah, I would say there were two kind of like big announcements that were made there. One is on regional integration. So there's something called South Connection that's just focused on how do we get all these countries working together, how do we improve trade routes in particular, the continent really lacks kind of efficient trade routes. And then there was also kind of an emphasis on other types of logistics infrastructure programs for regional integration. But one of the coolest projects is this 2,300mile by oceanic corridor. So it runs from the Atlantic to the Pacific just straight through the continent. Some people called it the kind of Panama Canal, but on the ground. And it's meant to reduce the amount of time you can get goods to Asia by 17 days. So it's just kind of cutting through. I think it's Brazil, Paraguay, Argentina and Chile I believe. Huge logistics investment. And IDB is backing this. So that's something to watch. They're building it now. It's just a huge highway. But there's of course kind of concerns about deforestation and impacts on indigenous communities. But I did a story on that that's on the website and I think it's just a fascinating kind of example of how the region is develop and the direction that it's going in, which is to kind of work how these governments work together. And it's in a. It's in a really ideal position because you've got a bunch of countries who are very welcoming to business investments and private investments and trying to improve efficiency. So it feels like it has some real kind of long term stamina. And then finally they're also investing more in critical minerals and critical mineral how these countries can work together when it comes to critical minerals. So they launched this critical minerals initiative called LAC Minerals. And it's trying to kind of move, we've heard this a lot in Africa as well, move beyond extraction, focus on value addition and processing and kind of respond to the increasing demand from the us, Europe and Asia. So they're working on policy reforms de risking private investment and infrastructure development on that. Okay, I'll leave it there for now. But those are sort of the big kind of headline themes that I noticed.
David Ainsworth
Yeah, it's unusual to see such a positive response. I was really struck by this afterward. We've had pretty much wall to wall doom and gloom in the development sector for 18 months. And then reading your coverage and listening to the kind of tone of the meetings, it seemed everything was completely different. In general, IDB has been quite a strong performer for a while. Golfind's had, he's had a lot of ideas, he's pushed through a lot of innovations. He's given the impression of being really high energy and kind of leading the MDB movement. But it's interesting to see that everybody there is so confident that they're going to succeed at development. You talked a little bit about kind of why that is, but I wondered like, do you, to what extent do you kind of agree with that? Do you, do you think they've got the tools to actually kind of move forward and grow?
Jesse Chase Lubitz
I think, I mean I, I think Latin America is really at this, at the kind of right place, right time in a way because it, it has the critical minerals. It is looking into AI investment. It already has proven that it can integrate renewable energy really successfully. And so I think the continent as a whole, I mean it faces a lot of challenges, we know that, and a lot of political volatility. And I think like one of my main questions to IDB was if you're investing in these really long term projects, like building a highway through the continent, how can you be sure that, you know, a change of government isn't going to derail this entire investment? And I mean, you know, of course they're not going to give you like a super specific answer, but they just kept saying, we've been talking to these countries for many years. There's a lot of, there's a lot of interest and there's a lot of understanding that this is going to help everyone. And so I think, you know, they have the confidence that the direction of these governments, the interested parties here, is friendly to this type of investment. But of course, I mean, there are big downsides. Like I mentioned, deforestation is going to be an issue. The impact on uncontacted indigenous communities, for which there are very few now, the uncontacted indigenous communities, that's going to be a big shift. And the area of Paraguay that this highway is going to run through, for example, is, is increased, is, is very underpopulated. And I talked to, I think it was UNDP who were like, you know, we don't really know what this is going to mean for this community. We don't know how they're going to react. We don't know what kind of could evolve just out of the fact that there's suddenly, you know, gas stations and, and a huge amount of transportation. And, you know, that could be great and it can create a lot of jobs, but it could also increase things like women and children trafficking. Like there are always going to be concerns that we need to look out for. And it seems like a lot of, a lot of groups are looking out for it. But, you know, it's not all like rainbows and sunshine. There's going to be some downsides here. Yeah. And I will say too, like when it comes to the broader geopolitics, United States and China, who are both shareholders, were relatively quiet at the bank, but you could sense that they're still kind of there in the background in an influential way. I noticed much less of a visible climate focus and gender focus. There were no panels on climate or gender, even though of course that's a fundamental topic to infrastructure development in forested regions. No one really talked about climate change.
Kate Warren
And
Jesse Chase Lubitz
I actually did speak to someone about this. They said that they're still having those conversations. Someone from the Red Cross, actually, they said we're still behind closed doors. No one's against talking about these things, but publicly it's much quieter. And then also I wanted to mention that when I looked at the list of attendees, there were a bunch of people from Arab countries and Qatar Fund for Development in particular was meant to be there. And so it shows that the bank and the region is trying to really kind of make new friends and see who else could be interested. But of course they couldn't come because of the flight restrictions due to the war. So yeah, just wanted to add that.
Kate Warren
Hi, I'm Kate Warren with devex and today I'm sharing a short spotlight conversation in partnership with the University of Denver's Joseph Corbell School of Global and Public Affairs. I recently spoke with Dr. Jonathan Moyer, who leads the Frederick S. Pardee Institute for International Futures, where his team builds one of the world's leading long term forecasting platforms. In our conversation, we discuss how forecasting models help policymakers and development leaders explore how today's decisions could shape development outcomes decades from now. Really pressure test major goals and examine the big what if questions shaping the future of development. Here's our conversation. So to start, I want to understand how your forecasting tools help leaders essentially pressure test big development goals before they Commit to them. So, for example, you worked with the African Union to help shape their 10 year implementation plan. How did this model help?
Dr. Jonathan Moyer
Sure. The International Futures Model, OR IS, as we call it for short, is a very broad representation of development within and across issue areas. So we forecast things like agriculture, energy, poverty, the economy, demography, gender conflict. Right. We're trying to simulate global development. If you are paying a slight amount of attention to the news, you'll notice that there's a lot of things that are happening these days and things that seem incredibly disruptive. The reality though is that there are some trends that are durable and can take longer time horizons and will weather through the chaos. And then there are other things that are going to be more affected by short term decisions. So we're trying to help leaders get out of this bias towards the short term and think more about the long term. So we work with leaders to say this is the path that we seem to be on. These are the development trajectories over the long term, like 2050, 2060, and then here are how policy choices or big uncertainties will affect development outcomes. So the African Union has a very ambitious agenda called Agenda 2063 and they break the implementation down into 10 year chunks. The the 10 year period that they're in now. We supported some of that, we played a small technical supporting role in helping with the implementation of the IFS model and thinking about targets related to poverty levels of GDP per capita, malnutrition, access to water, sanitation, those kinds of development oriented outcomes. And so by setting reasonable targets, we can help guide expectations about what the future should look like in spite of all the short term noise that surrounds us every day.
Kate Warren
And so a major goal now in this implementation plan is really cascading these targets down to the national level. So what does that look like in practice?
Dr. Jonathan Moyer
So I don't represent the African Union at all. And I would really encourage people to look at Agenda 2063 and the second 10 year implementation plan, the goal of cascading targets. So the plan is at the continental level. And so at the continental level you have targets for things I mentioned like poverty and malnutrition and access to water and sanitation, among a whole range of things. And so the continental level plan has to be taken down to the national level so that national development plans and policies really where the policy making happens, they can be implemented so that you can move in a direction that supports the continental achievement. So what share of poverty reduction should be shouldered by country A, B or C? And then how do we Think about domesticating those policies. We don't do any of the policy making space. We're just providing a technical resource that allows people to think about development as a deeply integrated system. So how do investments in education affect things like labor markets and health and governance and conflict? And so that kind of integrated open source framework, which is what the IFS tool is, allows people to interrogate their own kinds of futures. So instead of us saying this is what you should or shouldn't do, we can say, what if, what if these choices are taken? What if these conflicts or geopolitical tensions translate into X, y or z outcome? Then we can begin to think about the long term implications.
Kate Warren
So the institute is part of the University of Denver, and you involve students directly in this modeling work. How are they contributing and how do you see this influencing their future careers and helping to shape the next development leaders?
Dr. Jonathan Moyer
Yeah, I think we hire a lot of students. So annually over the past 15 years or so, we've hired about 80 students on average in every given year. And they have different kinds of roles within the institute. A large number of people build data, so we're building data by hand. Other students are getting more into the model side of things. The way I think about student work in a place like Pardee is it's a great opportunity to learn about what the research space looks like in order to understand kind of where you want to fit with your career as you go forward. The opportunity for students in a space like this is to really get their feet wet learning about how a research space actually works and then providing them with both skills that they can then use in their future job, but also opportunities. Opportunities to kind of make more refined decisions about the career choices and paths that they want to take.
Kate Warren
Well, John, thank you and the University of Denver's Joseph Corbell School of Global and Public affairs for your time.
Dr. Jonathan Moyer
Thank you, Kate.
David Ainsworth
Okay, well, that's an excellent segue into the other topic that we want to talk about, really, which is the impact of the war and all the kind of development impacts that that's had. Obviously it's had massive impacts on all sorts of different groups of people. It's had. The ripple effect has gone right the way across the world. No doubt. There's a lot of readers who are filling up their cars and trying to renegotiate their mortgages who are not happy with the ripple effects right now. But specifically in that you've been charting how this has affected the development community, both the kind of low and middle income countries that are close to the conflict and the organizations that are working within those countries. Do you want to tell us a little bit about kind of the key things that you're finding?
Ayan Apn
Yeah, absolutely. It's having a massive impact, of course. I mean, first, you know, the countries that are directly affected. It's a huge displacement crisis. In Lebanon, one in five people are displaced now. So really, really stretching thin. Organizations that are trying to help displace people, trying to feed them. We're seeing organizations pivot. I just had a conversation earlier today with Mercy Corps, or I guess almost Prosper Global, I guess they're now called, but saying that they were having, they were having to pivot some of their work from, you know, maybe more resilience type work to emergency work because, you know, one in five people are displaced there. And we also have a huge displacement crisis within Iran. We have around 3.2 million people displaced there, including many Afghans. Around a quarter of a million people of Afghans were actually living in Iran. Refugees and probably way more that are undocumented. So a lot of them are going back to Afghanistan now. And Afghanistan itself stretched very thin. It's been in a humanitarian crisis ever since the US cut funding and malnutrition rates are soaring. And it's really, there's aid agencies really do not have the capacity to handle an influx of more people into Afghanistan. So that's a huge problem within the direct region. And of course, you know, the fact that we have the choke point in the Strait of Hormuz means that fuel prices, as everybody knows, are extremely high. And it's around a hundred dollars a barrel. And we're already seeing the impact. Africa, for example, in, in Baidoa, a city in Somalia, which is like a big place for displaced people, the cost of fuel has already increased by 75% since the start of the war. And in Mogadishu, it's up by 130%. So these are people, like people cannot afford to get around. I was also talking to someone who said, you know, people would pay for tuk tuk, like a little bajaj, to try and find informal work, and they would pay the tuk tuk. It would make economic sense to like, you know, make a couple of dollars and if you only have to pay a couple of cents per transport. But that math is changing. Like, if it doesn't really make sense to go and do that informal work, which is like deepening poverty in all these really complex ways, that's a big, big problem. And of course, when food, sorry, when fuel prices increase, Food prices increase, too. And we're having an increase in food prices also in Somalia, which is a country that's been grappling with drought over the past year, like pasta, which is actually a really big staple food, that prices of those have increased by 25% in Mogadishu since the start of the war. So people just can't afford the increase because it's not like, oh, you know, I could pay an extra couple of cents already. People in many parts of Africa spent a huge share of their income on food. So even a marginal increase has pretty devastating impacts on a lot of people. There's also major impacts to, to fertilizers, you know, around, like in certain countries like Sudan, like, very dependent on fertilizers that come from the Gulf. Gulf countries are some of the biggest producers of fertilizers in the world. So what does that mean for planting season? Everyone is trying to figure out, do we have enough fertilizers in place, do we need to import more, can we afford to import more, et cetera. And yeah, in terms of, like, what I've been hearing, I had a really interesting, also troubling conversation with WFP about how much harder their work has become since the start of the conflict. And, you know, they, they told me straight up that it's already affecting their operations. So the cost, like, there's a additional insurance that you have to get on containers, so that is slapping on an extra two to $4,000 per container of food that they're trying to move around. And they used to have really straightforward routes, like move grain from India to Sudan, like, which, which is not very far away, if you look at a map. But they cannot go that route anymore. So instead of taking a very direct route to somewhere like Sudan, they're literally going around the whole continent, which adds a huge number of days and also more costs. You know, obviously when you're operating these, these ships for longer, it takes a. It's, it's a lot more expensive to operate. And on top of that, you know, there are these delays. And because of the fact that there have been aid cuts, you know, for the past year, that means that there's actually lower levels of stockpiles of food in place in many places. So that's like another double whammy. People can't afford to have, like, you know, the desirable stock levels of food that we'd like to have in good times. So that means that we're just that much more fragile to these potential swings and potential delays. These are the biggest Things that I'm seeing. And also on top of that, I'm talking to people about what does this mean for potential conflict here, which obviously has humanitarian ramifications. So the countries that are supposed to be brokering a peace deal in Sudan include uae, the us, Saudi. They are very much not interested in Sudan right now, or not interested in trying to broker peace. They're very distracted at home. And so what does that mean for the humanitarians operations on the ground? Are the needs going to increase? Are fighters, militants going to take advantage of a potential lull in interest and attention? Those are all the big questions. So it's having huge ripple effects just in my region. I mean, I'm in Kenya right now, but just kind of in every country around me. It's already having really major effects.
Kate Warren
Hi, I'm Kate Warren, Executive Vice President and Executive Editor at devex. At devex, we don't just cover the biggest moments in global development. We create space to understand who and what are driving the headlines. Alongside gatherings like the World bank and IMF Spring and annual meetings, the World Health assembly, the UN General assembly and beyond, we host Devex Impact House, where our journalism comes off the page and onto the stage. We bring together a curated group of leaders for live interviews, intimate roundtables, hands on workshops, and candid conversations you won't hear in the official meeting meetings. That's where tough questions get asked, the spin gets stripped away and meaningful connections happen. If you'd like to join us or stay in the loop on all of our events online and in person, please visit devex.com events and I hope to see you at a future Devex Impact House.
David Ainsworth
Yeah, I hadn't had some of those effects, to be honest. The things that I think people are maybe not thinking about, thinking about the insurance costs and stuff like that was not something that was really on my radar, for example. And you just made me think about how after the Ukraine war, we saw so many secondary conflicts springing up caused by the after effects of the inflation, interest rate rises, food price rises, that sort of thing. And we saw this belt of coups right the way across Africa, kind of not purely driven by the Ukraine conflict, but very much in the wake of it, where we're seeing one country after another that fell into political instability due to the financial instability. And Sudan obviously still deep in instability, as is Yemen within the Gulf. So presumably those countries are only going to see the situation getting significantly worse in coming weeks.
Ayan Apn
Yeah, absolutely. It's just been really hard to get anyone to pay attention to Sudan. I mean, obviously we all try to, and you know, the humanitarian community tries to as well, but, you know, there's just, it's just been a really hard conflict, despite the fact that it's the biggest humanitarian catastrophe that the world has right now. And I, I just fear that this is going to even make it even more on the back burner. Right. And the needs are only increasing. And also, you know, I mentioned fleetingly earlier that Sudan relies on imports from, from the Gulf for, for fertilizer. Right. And the planting season starts in June. So there are farmers in the east of Sudan, like along the border of Ethiopia, that are still farming. They're still like, trying to feed their country even as parts of the west descend into famine. So. But what does that mean if they can't have access to fertilizer anymore? If they have reduced, if they have reduced access to fertilizer, the yields will obviously go down, their food production will go down as well. So that has a real potential to exacerbate the hunger situation in Sudan, which is already really alarming.
David Ainsworth
You've been looking as well, I don't know how much you can tell us about this yet, but the impact on emerging market debt of all of this kind of crisis and how that a lot of money was being lent into Africa by countries that are directly affected by this situation and interest rates, obviously inflation, are going to be pushed up. Presumably that's going to have an impact on debt and that's going to have a secondary impact on the amount of money that can be spent on tackling development issues.
Ayan Apn
Yeah. So I'm sure, as many of our listeners know, the Gulf has just become a huge investor into the continent in recent years. We have uae, we have Saudi, we have Qatar. There's a ton of Gulf money floating around into different institutions, into different countries. Some of the deals are more opaque than others, but we don't know exactly what they're going into. But they're very involved in many parts of many parts of the continent. And so there's this concern about what happens. Now, I know the FT reported a few days ago or about a week ago or something that, citing their own exclusive sources, that they. There were reports that there were some Gulf countries seeking to declare force majeure on some investments abroad. Now, we have no idea which investments abroad those mean. Right. And you know, they have huge, the Gulf countries invest everywhere in the world and, you know, and scale much higher in developed countries probably than, than, than in Africa. But what that, that announcement, that story is sending alarm Bells ringing throughout the continent, though. You know, people are wondering, does that mean, is that my investment? What happens to my money? So I think there's a lot of. A lot of concern about what that could mean and whether the Gulf countries, you know, of course they're, they're occupied at home, so what does that mean for their interest abroad? That's going to be a really big question that, that I'm going to look at in the, in the coming weeks.
David Ainsworth
Yeah. So this really paints a picture of two parts of the world. I think what we're really seeing at the moment more broadly is a real sort of realignment of opportunity and allegiance among different kind of spheres of the world. You're painting a picture, Jesse, of South America, Latin America really growing, taking advantage of opportunities. And you're painting a much more kind of difficult picture of a new set of challenges that have kind of been foisted onto African nations really very much not of their own doing at all. So I wonder kind of what this shows us about the different challenges that are going to face different parts of the global south kind of going forward. It seems as if, I think we're seeing an interesting picture in Latin America. And correct me if I'm wrong, Zaci, because you've been paying much closer attention to this recently of a kind of increased unity of purpose among Latin American nations, negotiating a little bit more as a block and working together towards some common goals. And it does seem as if kind of the kind of great power politics that we're seeing at the moment is forcing us a little bit into kind of block politics all over the world. And similarly, interestingly in Africa, I think we've seen some Euro, the African Union earlier this year, Ayanath, and we saw African countries similarly talking to each other and saying, we're going to have to negotiate much more as a single group. Yeah. I wonder if you had any reflections on this. Kind of the fact that we're seeing two different parts of the world facing very different challenges and very different sets of opportunities.
Jesse Chase Lubitz
I think that's really interesting. I feel like the block politics idea is something to revisit. One of the questions that I tried to keep asking people at IDB was on the critical minerals front. Are you like, is there going to be an OPEC of critical minerals kind of. And everyone says, like, no, no, that's not what we're doing. Or I mean, at the idb, that's not what we're doing. But I don't know, I could kind of see that making a Lot of sense we saw in, I'd reported on critical minerals in a bunch of African countries, a lot of them have been increasing their regulations for exports over the last really just like year or two. They're realizing, you know, we have this, a really valuable substance and we're not just going to give it away. And we're gonna like, if you have three countries that all border each other, that all have lithium, you know, all three countries have to have that rule or the, the export that the importing country will just go next door and, and get it from the other country. So there's real need for, for block politics to strengthen, especially when we're talking about resources. I think that we're not seeing the same thing in Latin America where countries are limiting their exports to the same extent yet, but I do think we will. And as far as kind of the Gulf over the last year before this war broke out, you know, when, when, when kind of the big power turnover happened in Syria, there was, we were definitely looking at, you know, like, what's, what's the development goals of the Gulf. So if, if they're the ones with all the money now, you know, as ODA goes down, the Gulf has a huge amount of money. Where are they going to, what, what kind of projects are they going to be putting it in? What are they going to care about in Syria, for example? And I think that's something that's kind of gonna then go up and down for a while, especially with conflict and everything. But I do feel like we've got two continents that both have money right now and resources and in a different way and a different amount and everything. But as the amount of development money coming from Europe and the US decreases, there's something to be said about like, let's follow where the money's going now. And I think the Gulf is one huge place and maybe Latin America will be too.
David Ainsworth
Yeah, where the money's going and also where it's coming from, right?
Jesse Chase Lubitz
Yeah.
Ayan Apn
And I will jump in just to say that I think it was last week, definitely in March, Ramaphosa was actually on a state visit to Brazil and they announced a bunch of new investments, even defense cooperation. So I was just looking at that news and I remember reporting, I think right around right before cop, about how Brazil was really expanding its footprint in Africa, opening new embassies, increasing its investments as well. So I think that this is a really interesting and exciting moment for all the south to south kind of cooperation. One thing that I'm thinking about is like, wow, I really wonder what the tone of something like the BRIC summit will be in a few months and whether a conference like that takes on new, I mean, even higher importance in this current climate when it's just, you know, the, the importance of south south cooperation is like more evident than ever.
David Ainsworth
Yeah, we saw some really interesting stuff at the last G20 summit about all of this. So so much kind of flexing of muscles from the brics and other similar powers about kind of setting out the development needs of the Global South. Now, of course, we're going off to the United States this year, so I suspect there will be a slightly different tone among the leaders of that summit than there has been in the preceding three years. But it does look like an increasingly interesting kind of issue to address.
Jesse Chase Lubitz
It is just to jump in really quickly. It is interesting. Cop is in Turkey, G20s, in the US last year we had a lot of these huge summits all in the Global South. And I feel like we're still kind of reeling from that and feeling the effects of that. But I wonder how they'll kind of keep that south south connection, those goals strong as some of the biggest summits of the world kind of move northward a little bit.
David Ainsworth
Okay, well, I think both of these are trends that we're going to keep keeping an eye on. I think. I know, Ayanna, you're writing more about what's happening as a result of the Iran war. The development implications, the kind of, the secondary kind of echoes of this seem to be likely to continue to be a major problem for the development community. And I think we're not sure how it'll play out over the coming weeks. Maybe it won't be to quite the same magnitude as the war in Ukraine, but we saw that the kind of development, aftershocks of that kept on going for an incredibly long time. So we're likely to see something similar here. And I think similarly, I think we're going to continue hearing from IDB and the other kind of development powers of South America and are going to continue to provide leadership and kind of new initiatives which we're going to be tracking. Right. I think we'll wrap it up there, call it a show. Thank you very much to both of you for joining us. To all our readers and listeners, please be aware that Jesse came back from holiday especially to take part in this, share her wisdom with us. Much appreciated. And it just remains for me to say thank you very much for everyone watching and listening.
Dr. Jonathan Moyer
Sa.
This Week in Global Development
Hosts: David Ainsworth, Jesse Chase Lubitz, Ayan Apn
Date: March 20, 2026
In this episode, the hosts delve into how global shocks—particularly recent geopolitical crises and wars—are producing sharply divergent economic and development outcomes for Latin America and Africa. Reporting from key development bank meetings and speaking with sector experts, they explore why Latin America is currently attracting optimism and investment, while Africa faces escalating humanitarian and economic strain. The episode also features a spotlight interview with Dr. Jonathan Moyer on long-term development forecasting and the challenges of setting and achieving realistic goals in turbulent times.
IDB Meetings in Paraguay (01:00–05:40)
Key Drivers of Optimism
Concerns Amid Optimism
Displacement Crisis: Lebanon has 1 in 5 people displaced; huge influxes in Iran and Afghanistan as refugees return amid funding cuts and crisis (16:46).
Effects of Regional War: The war has upended fuel supply routes, driving up costs via the Strait of Hormuz—fuel prices up 75% in Baidoa (Somalia), 130% in Mogadishu (18:10).
Food & Fertilizer Price Shock:
Operational Difficulties for Aid Organizations:
| Segment | Timestamps | |------------------------------------------------|--------------| | Latin America – IDB Meetings & Tone Shift | 01:00–09:28 | | African Development Forecasting – Dr. Moyer | 10:10–15:59 | | Africa’s Humanitarian & Economic Crisis | 16:00–24:17 | | Financial Aftershocks & Debt Concerns | 25:27–27:21 | | Bloc Politics, South-South Cooperation | 27:21–33:19 | | Closing Reflections & Future Trends | 33:19–33:48 |
This episode powerfully illustrated the divergent fortunes of Latin America and Africa amid ongoing global shocks: one region leveraging resources and integration to power optimism and investment, the other buffeted by conflict-fueled crises exposing acute vulnerabilities. At the same time, broader block realignment and South-South cooperation are likely to shape both regions’ future paths. The hosts and guests deliver candid, on-the-ground insights into the real human and system-level impacts shaping development—underscoring the need for adaptive, forward-looking strategies as the world faces an era of protracted uncertainty.