This Week in Global Development
Episode Summary: What do Trump's cabinet picks mean for U.S. foreign aid?
Date: December 6, 2024
Hosts: Raj Kumar, Adva Saldinger, Special Guest: Nasra Ismail

Episode Overview

This episode delves into the implications of the anticipated Trump administration’s cabinet appointments for U.S. foreign aid and global development. Raj Kumar (Devex President & Editor-in-Chief), senior reporter Adva Saldinger, and special guest Nasra Ismail (Executive Director, US Enterprise at Alite) analyze how shifting personnel could reshape policies and the development landscape. They discuss the potential for both reform and disruption at major aid agencies, the anxiety among career staff, lessons from Trump’s prior term, and the broader international context—including the World Bank’s IDA replenishment drive.

Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. Personnel is Policy: Why Appointments Matter ([02:16], [02:47])

The incoming Trump administration is rapidly announcing new appointees, with significant implications for development agencies like USAID, Health and Human Services (to be led by RFK Jr.), and State (to be led by Marco Rubio).
Adva Saldinger: "Personnel will be policy. Who is in place is going to matter a lot" [02:16].
- The choice of leadership could mean measured reforms, full-throated advocacy for development, or disruptive overhauls—including the potential dismantling of USAID.
- Under Trump, the guardrails are less clear, widening the spectrum from positive reforms (e.g., BUILD Act) to existential threats for aid agencies.

2. The Reform vs. Undermining Debate ([03:50], [05:31], [07:02])

Raj Kumar: Highlights that “the range of possibilities in a Trump administration are just a lot wider” than in a conventional administration [03:50].
Adva: Points out bipartisan acknowledgment of the need for aid system reforms, referencing Senator Coons’ bipartisan bill [04:56].
Nasra Ismail: Expresses anxiety over the reform narrative being used as a "stalking horse for something much more fundamental, which is just dramatically weakening... agencies" [07:02].
- She worries seasoned careerists may exit, losing vital institutional memory amid global crises.

"As a former bureaucrat... I think about my colleagues... Do they have ownership here in the stake? Do they have a say, or will we see ... people actually leave the federal government?" —Nasra Ismail [05:31]

3. The Notable Names and Political Dynamics ([09:20], [09:43], [11:06], [11:51])

The panel reviews Devex reporting on leading contenders for top development jobs, highlighting the Trump world’s preference for appointees who push for ideological balance.
- Max Permarak (Project 2025): Advocates infusing agencies with more conservative political appointees, given his view that the “entire aid industry is a one-party industry” [09:43].
- David Beasley: Former WFP head, seen as a stabilizing, experienced figure [11:06].
- Sean Cairncross: Former MCC CEO, rumored favorite for USAID, brings Hill experience and is seen as passionate but had a contentious earlier appointment [11:51].
- David Bohegian: Known for implementing the DFC's transition [11:51].
- Rep. Ted Yoho: Co-architect of the BUILD Act, shifted from skepticism to pragmatic reform, emphasizing ‘aid-to-trade’ transition [11:51], [13:43].

“When he came into Congress, he basically ran on a platform to euthanize foreign aid. And then … said, well, wait, let’s actually try and reform foreign aid because there’s actually a lot of benefit to it.” —Adva Saldinger [13:43]

4. The Fate of Career Staff and Institutional Knowledge ([08:13], [08:29])

Discusses the real risk that a politicized, antagonistic leadership may prompt an exodus of experienced career staff, undermining agencies’ abilities in complex contexts.
- Nasra: “We cannot lose [institutional knowledge] because the complexities on the ground are too much.” [08:29]

5. Media, Politics, and Agency Defense ([18:36], [20:52], [22:18], [25:13])

The ‘efficiency’ and anti-waste narratives (including by Elon Musk and conservative media) can cherry-pick “easy targets” for criticism, threatening funding in politically sensitive aid areas.
- Examples include sensational stories like the “Ethiopia Spice Girls” and accusations around program funding [18:36], [20:52].
- Agencies will need leaders able to deftly defend their work in the public arena—especially as attacks are amplified on social media.

“The aid world is a really easy world to go and cherry pick things that sound really negative... It led to [the UK] cutting the funding for the Ethiopia Spice Girls.” —Raj Kumar [18:36]

6. Congressional Appropriation and Constraints ([22:18])

Congress remains a potential check on extreme actions—both in budget allocations and program mandates.

“Congress appropriates money and they typically really want to see the money spent where they're saying it should be spent.” —Adva Saldinger [22:18]

7. World Bank IDA Replenishment and Multilateral Trends ([25:43], [28:23])

Coverage of the current World Bank IDA replenishment—critical funding for the poorest nations.
- Record donor pledges sought, but high uncertainty due to U.S., UK, French, and German political instability.
- Move toward more flexibility and fewer policy prescriptions at IDA, with debate over the risk of weaker gender targets.

“Her country would perish without IDA. So these are resources that to the poorest countries in the world are really fundamental in providing basic services.” —Adva Saldinger [25:43]

8. Geopolitical and Macro Trends ([29:29], [31:37])

As donor commitments wobble, emerging actors like South Korea and China may play larger IDA roles.
- Currency devaluation, “Trump effects” (e.g., strong US dollar), and political volatility complicate the replenishment landscape.

9. The World on Fire: Humanitarian Need and Mood ([31:59], [33:05])

Global humanitarian needs are at peak, with the Global Humanitarian Outlook opened by the phrase “the world is on fire.”
Despite the gravity, the panel emphasizes finding “hope and levity where you can.”

Notable Quotes & Moments

| Timestamp | Quote | Speaker | |------------|---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------|------------------| | 02:16 | “Personnel will be policy. Who is in place is going to matter a lot.” | Adva Saldinger | | 03:50 | “The range of possibilities in a Trump administration are just a lot wider...” | Raj Kumar | | 05:31 | “As a former bureaucrat... Do they have ownership here in the stake?” | Nasra Ismail | | 07:02 | “The idea of reform is being used as kind of a stalking horse...” | Raj Kumar | | 09:43 | “Max Permarak... thinks the entire aid industry is a one party industry.” | Adva Saldinger | | 11:06 | “To see David Beasley on that list was a sigh of relief for me...” | Nasra Ismail | | 13:43 | “He basically ran on a platform to euthanize foreign aid. And then… let’s reform...” | Adva Saldinger | | 18:36 | “The aid world is a really easy world to go and cherry pick things that sound negative.” | Raj Kumar | | 22:18 | “Congress appropriates money and they typically really want to see the money spent...” | Adva Saldinger | | 25:43 | “Her country would perish without IDA... really fundamental in providing basic services.” | Adva Saldinger | | 31:59 | “…opens up...2025 Global Humanitarian Outlook with: The world is on fire.” | Nasra Ismail | | 33:05 | “This new era... will not be boring. That's for sure.” | Raj Kumar |

Timestamps for Key Segments

[02:16] — Personnel is policy: why appointee choices are more consequential than ever
[03:50] — The wider range of possible outcomes under Trump
[05:31] — The anxiety for federal careerists
[09:43] — Spotlight on potential appointees and ideological rebalancing
[11:06] — Relief at names like David Beasley; discussion of other contenders
[13:43] — The Ted Yoho foreign aid pivot story
[18:36] — The political weaponization of aid scandals
[22:18] — Congressional constraints on agency reform
[25:43] — World Bank IDA replenishment stakes
[31:59] — “The world is on fire”—mood and gravitas

Tone & Final Thoughts

The episode maintains a frank, sometimes anxious but constructive tone—balancing concern for potential disruption with hope that expertise, bipartisan cooperation, and institutional memory will prevail. The overarching message: in an era of great political volatility, the development sector must remain vigilant, adaptive, and committed to truth-telling and partnership.

“We’re looking in a time where everybody’s going to have to find their inner Alphabet and lead and show up in a very different way. But… when the arc says, you know, the world is on fire, I think there’s a seriousness there. But at the same time, find hope and find levity where you can.” —Nasra Ismail [31:59]

End of Summary

Episode Overview

Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. Personnel is Policy: Why Appointments Matter ([02:16], [02:47])

The incoming Trump administration is rapidly announcing new appointees, with significant implications for development agencies like USAID, Health and Human Services (to be led by RFK Jr.), and State (to be led by Marco Rubio).
Adva Saldinger: "Personnel will be policy. Who is in place is going to matter a lot" [02:16].
- The choice of leadership could mean measured reforms, full-throated advocacy for development, or disruptive overhauls—including the potential dismantling of USAID.
- Under Trump, the guardrails are less clear, widening the spectrum from positive reforms (e.g., BUILD Act) to existential threats for aid agencies.

2. The Reform vs. Undermining Debate ([03:50], [05:31], [07:02])

Raj Kumar: Highlights that “the range of possibilities in a Trump administration are just a lot wider” than in a conventional administration [03:50].
Adva: Points out bipartisan acknowledgment of the need for aid system reforms, referencing Senator Coons’ bipartisan bill [04:56].
Nasra Ismail: Expresses anxiety over the reform narrative being used as a "stalking horse for something much more fundamental, which is just dramatically weakening... agencies" [07:02].
- She worries seasoned careerists may exit, losing vital institutional memory amid global crises.

"As a former bureaucrat... I think about my colleagues... Do they have ownership here in the stake? Do they have a say, or will we see ... people actually leave the federal government?" —Nasra Ismail [05:31]

3. The Notable Names and Political Dynamics ([09:20], [09:43], [11:06], [11:51])

The panel reviews Devex reporting on leading contenders for top development jobs, highlighting the Trump world’s preference for appointees who push for ideological balance.
- Max Permarak (Project 2025): Advocates infusing agencies with more conservative political appointees, given his view that the “entire aid industry is a one-party industry” [09:43].
- David Beasley: Former WFP head, seen as a stabilizing, experienced figure [11:06].
- Sean Cairncross: Former MCC CEO, rumored favorite for USAID, brings Hill experience and is seen as passionate but had a contentious earlier appointment [11:51].
- David Bohegian: Known for implementing the DFC's transition [11:51].
- Rep. Ted Yoho: Co-architect of the BUILD Act, shifted from skepticism to pragmatic reform, emphasizing ‘aid-to-trade’ transition [11:51], [13:43].

“When he came into Congress, he basically ran on a platform to euthanize foreign aid. And then … said, well, wait, let’s actually try and reform foreign aid because there’s actually a lot of benefit to it.” —Adva Saldinger [13:43]

4. The Fate of Career Staff and Institutional Knowledge ([08:13], [08:29])

Discusses the real risk that a politicized, antagonistic leadership may prompt an exodus of experienced career staff, undermining agencies’ abilities in complex contexts.
- Nasra: “We cannot lose [institutional knowledge] because the complexities on the ground are too much.” [08:29]

5. Media, Politics, and Agency Defense ([18:36], [20:52], [22:18], [25:13])

The ‘efficiency’ and anti-waste narratives (including by Elon Musk and conservative media) can cherry-pick “easy targets” for criticism, threatening funding in politically sensitive aid areas.
- Examples include sensational stories like the “Ethiopia Spice Girls” and accusations around program funding [18:36], [20:52].
- Agencies will need leaders able to deftly defend their work in the public arena—especially as attacks are amplified on social media.

“The aid world is a really easy world to go and cherry pick things that sound really negative... It led to [the UK] cutting the funding for the Ethiopia Spice Girls.” —Raj Kumar [18:36]

6. Congressional Appropriation and Constraints ([22:18])

Congress remains a potential check on extreme actions—both in budget allocations and program mandates.

“Congress appropriates money and they typically really want to see the money spent where they're saying it should be spent.” —Adva Saldinger [22:18]

7. World Bank IDA Replenishment and Multilateral Trends ([25:43], [28:23])

Coverage of the current World Bank IDA replenishment—critical funding for the poorest nations.
- Record donor pledges sought, but high uncertainty due to U.S., UK, French, and German political instability.
- Move toward more flexibility and fewer policy prescriptions at IDA, with debate over the risk of weaker gender targets.

“Her country would perish without IDA. So these are resources that to the poorest countries in the world are really fundamental in providing basic services.” —Adva Saldinger [25:43]

8. Geopolitical and Macro Trends ([29:29], [31:37])

As donor commitments wobble, emerging actors like South Korea and China may play larger IDA roles.
- Currency devaluation, “Trump effects” (e.g., strong US dollar), and political volatility complicate the replenishment landscape.

9. The World on Fire: Humanitarian Need and Mood ([31:59], [33:05])

Global humanitarian needs are at peak, with the Global Humanitarian Outlook opened by the phrase “the world is on fire.”
Despite the gravity, the panel emphasizes finding “hope and levity where you can.”

Notable Quotes & Moments

Timestamps for Key Segments

[02:16] — Personnel is policy: why appointee choices are more consequential than ever
[03:50] — The wider range of possible outcomes under Trump
[05:31] — The anxiety for federal careerists
[09:43] — Spotlight on potential appointees and ideological rebalancing
[11:06] — Relief at names like David Beasley; discussion of other contenders
[13:43] — The Ted Yoho foreign aid pivot story
[18:36] — The political weaponization of aid scandals
[22:18] — Congressional constraints on agency reform
[25:43] — World Bank IDA replenishment stakes
[31:59] — “The world is on fire”—mood and gravitas

Tone & Final Thoughts

“We’re looking in a time where everybody’s going to have to find their inner Alphabet and lead and show up in a very different way. But… when the arc says, you know, the world is on fire, I think there’s a seriousness there. But at the same time, find hope and find levity where you can.” —Nasra Ismail [31:59]

End of Summary

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Summary

Episode Overview

Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. Personnel is Policy: Why Appointments Matter ([02:16], [02:47])

2. The Reform vs. Undermining Debate ([03:50], [05:31], [07:02])

3. The Notable Names and Political Dynamics ([09:20], [09:43], [11:06], [11:51])

4. The Fate of Career Staff and Institutional Knowledge ([08:13], [08:29])

5. Media, Politics, and Agency Defense ([18:36], [20:52], [22:18], [25:13])

6. Congressional Appropriation and Constraints ([22:18])

7. World Bank IDA Replenishment and Multilateral Trends ([25:43], [28:23])

8. Geopolitical and Macro Trends ([29:29], [31:37])

9. The World on Fire: Humanitarian Need and Mood ([31:59], [33:05])

Notable Quotes & Moments

Timestamps for Key Segments

Tone & Final Thoughts

Summary

Episode Overview

Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. Personnel is Policy: Why Appointments Matter ([02:16], [02:47])

2. The Reform vs. Undermining Debate ([03:50], [05:31], [07:02])

3. The Notable Names and Political Dynamics ([09:20], [09:43], [11:06], [11:51])

4. The Fate of Career Staff and Institutional Knowledge ([08:13], [08:29])

5. Media, Politics, and Agency Defense ([18:36], [20:52], [22:18], [25:13])

6. Congressional Appropriation and Constraints ([22:18])

7. World Bank IDA Replenishment and Multilateral Trends ([25:43], [28:23])

8. Geopolitical and Macro Trends ([29:29], [31:37])

9. The World on Fire: Humanitarian Need and Mood ([31:59], [33:05])

Notable Quotes & Moments

Timestamps for Key Segments

Tone & Final Thoughts