This Week in Startups E2258
"Is Anthropic Making the Biggest Mistake in AI History?"
March 5, 2026
Host: Jason Calacanis
Guests: Logan Allen (Fin Capital), Eric Voorhees (Venice AI), David Kaufman (Sightline), George Pickett (OpenClaw Studio)
Main Theme:
The episode dives into the explosive growth and controversies around Anthropic and open-source AI, data privacy, investment trends, agentic AI, and the intersection of AI with crypto and enterprise. The bulk of the discussion centers on Anthropic’s Pentagon standoff, open-source AI’s ascendance (with OpenClaw), venture investment strategies in AI, and several new AI products.
1. Introduction & Setting the Stage
[00:45]
Jason: Recaps the meteoric rise of the OpenClaw open-source project, now the most "starred" repository ever, outperforming even React.
- "OpenClaw...number one open source project in history based on people following it, you know, stars like kind of situation."
- Highlights agenda: product demos, industry discourse, investment and efficiency opportunities.
2. Stablecoins, Crypto, and Investment Theses
[03:19]
Logan Allen (Fin Capital) discusses investing in Circle (the stablecoin company), emphasizing the importance of digital money and traditional finance (TradFi) embracing stablecoins.
- “Stablecoins are the way money will move digitally...banks and TradFi actually being able to adopt stables...We're gonna need to move money cheaper, faster, better.” [04:34]
- Notes large players attracted by more efficient settlements (credit cards, remittances) as a key adoption inflection point.
Jason’s ‘Criminal Adoption’ Thesis:
- Watch for criminal or gray-market adoption (e.g., stablecoins being used for discreet wagers) as leading indicators of when a technology is becoming mainstream.
- "My thesis...look to what the criminals are doing...Do they adopt the technology?..." [05:29]
3. Venice AI: Privacy, Tokens, and a Libertarian Approach
[07:01]
Guest: Eric Voorhees (Founder, Venice AI)
- Venice AI positioned as a private, uncensored alternative to ChatGPT. Inspired by crypto values: user sovereignty, privacy, free speech.
- "The right to privacy, free speech, lack of censorship — these were entirely absent in AI..." [08:49]
OpenClaw Early Adoption:
- Venice quickly integrated with OpenClaw as a private inference option, providing a non-OpenAI back end.
- "If you want your claw to run on private inference...then we were a good alternative." [09:26]
4. The Open-Source AI Surge: Investment Perspectives
[12:03]
Logan Allen:
- Fin Capital bet that open-source LLMs would rapidly close the gap with proprietary models on intelligence, speed, and price.
- Sees value in startups building AI-first products with domain differentiation and strong workflow/data integration.
- “You have to be AI-first...Otherwise you're very quickly going to get outcompeted.” [12:03]
[13:30]
Jason:
- Early signs of breakout tech:
- Tinkerers/hackers adopting
- Startups adopting
- When Jason himself starts tinkering
- Sees all three now aligning around OpenClaw.
5. Data Privacy & AI: The Surveillance Paradox
[14:22]
Eric Voorhees:
- Critiques mainstream AI companies for talking about "AI safety" but ignoring pervasive, dangerous data surveillance.
- "It's kind of ironic that many of these frontier labs say they care so much about AI safety...but the most near and present danger is the mass surveillance of all humanity." [14:22]
[15:59]
Logan Allen:
-
Privacy is hard to come by; most data is everywhere.
-
Enterprise adoption of AI will be driven predominantly by cybersecurity concerns.
-
"We're looking at companies that are helping encrypt manage pii, obviously manage users use of AI...The crossing the chasm moment for enterprise and adoption of AI actually is going to be driven predominantly by cybersec." [15:59]
-
Describes their portfolio company Witness AI, focused on employee use/bring-your-own AI.
6. Tokenomics and AI Access
[17:35]
Venice AI’s Token ($VVV and diem):
- Token enables free API access — holding the token gives inference credits (a unique pricing model).
- "If you're a human or an agent and you want marginally free inference...you can hold the token for that." [17:35]
- Recognizes volatility: “If I cared too much about the price movements, I probably would have had to shoot myself.” —Eric [18:22]
Not using Bittensor—Venice is a centralized company, not decentralized like some AI compute projects.
7. The Jevons Paradox of AI Agent Use
[23:07]
Jason:
- AI platform usage costs are surging as ease-of-use expands.
- Internal AI use (via OpenClaw) started matching (or exceeding) payroll.
- "It was trending to beating and being more than our payroll...I am living, Logan, in Jevons Paradox now." [23:54]
Logan:
- Predicts future of VC firms: a small number of senior partners + "hundreds of agents" (AIs) running research, deal monitoring, etc.
- Built own AI ‘Founder DNA’ model—uses 40+ criteria; repeat founders, CEO tenure, and any exit history are highly predictive of future founder success.
8. Anthropic’s Revenue Explosion & Pentagon Controversy
[28:41]
- Anthropic’s Estimated Run-Rate: $19B, nearly doubling in weeks.
- Driven by adoption of Claude code, big public-sector deals.
Pentagon Standoff:
- Anthropic required Pentagon not to use Claude for autonomous weapons or mass surveillance (4th Amendment protection).
- Eric: Applauds Dario for “brave” refusal to bend the knee to the government, but wonders if the stance is principled or would change under different politics.
- “Whenever anyone is willing to stand up to [the government], it’s inspiring, frankly.” [30:38]
- Logan: Critiques Dario’s approach as “short sighted,” says if you work with the military, “you probably have to accept that your product's going to be used to go kill bad guys” [33:25].
- Believes enterprise focus with usage-based pricing is fueling Anthropic’s revenue ramp.
- Eric: Pushes back; Anthropic only asked for basic, responsible safeguards.
- "Basically all they're saying is we want you to abide by the Fourth Amendment. That was not acceptable to the military...it's that latter part...that was quite gross." [34:54]
Jason: Sides with both, sees room for negotiation—government overplayed its hand by making the deal performative.
Memorable Exchange
- Logan: “If you're going to work with the military...you probably have to accept that your product's going to be used to go kill bad guys.”
- Eric: "That's a bit disingenuous...they did not want their technology used for autonomous weapons...or mass surveillance of Americans."
9. Demos: New Agentic AI Products
[42:46]
David Kaufman – Sightline
- Analytics for website agent activity (“Google Analytics for your agents”).
- Helps sites understand/search agent visits, agentic commerce.
- Early customers: technical SaaS companies.
- Investor Feedback: Both Logan and Eric see strong value as agents become a main traffic/customer source.
Discussion: Monetizing AI/Bot Crawling
- Cloudflare’s “pay-per-crawl” model—inevitable for public IP, but businesses often prefer more (not less) bot traffic for exposure.
- Jason: Proposes simple crawl access pricing as a new revenue stream for content creators.
[57:37]
George Pickett – OpenClaw Studio
- Open-source tool to make OpenClaw more user-friendly for non-coders (multi-agent dashboards, granular control, coming SaaS version).
- Logan: Advises: Know your audience, plan developer/enterprise side-entry, think about open source to freemium upgrades.
- Eric: Sees orchestration and ease of use as key—wants to see innovation for less-technical users.
10. Q&A Lightning Round
[68:10]
- Bitcoin in TradFi (Traditional Finance): Eric supports TradFi embracing Bitcoin, says it's inevitable for mainstream adoption, has concerns about trust in traditional firms [68:27].
- MicroStrategy: Logan (discloser: holder) enjoys high yield but says the model is risky, possibly pyramid-like: “You gotta be up and to the right for this thing to work, otherwise you’re in a lot of trouble.” [70:38]
- AI Tools Most Used:
- Logan: Claude – board material summaries, data room triage, and researching dinner party guests. “I put all your names in Claude before this...deeper, richer conversations.” [72:34]
- Eric: Venice AI – for document review (legal, medical): “Can save literally thousands of dollars and often will give you better answers than professionals will do.” [73:56]
- Jason: “Grok” button and personal OpenClaw AI do video curation, bookmarking, even acts as a chief of staff. [74:39]
11. Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments
- "It's kind of ironic that many of these frontier labs say they care so much about AI safety...but the most near and present danger is the mass surveillance of all humanity." — Eric Voorhees [14:22]
- "If you're going to work with the military...you have to accept that your product will be used to go kill bad guys." — Logan Allen [33:25]
- "As Palantir has demonstrated, the government could be their largest customer." — Logan Allen [38:53]
- "The whole point of Bitcoin was to take over the global financial system. You don't do that without the financial system merging with it..." — Eric Voorhees [68:27]
- "Jevons Paradox: I couldn't get anybody to use our enterprise ChatGPT...then I get OpenClaw...I can't get people to stop using it." — Jason [23:07]
12. Final Thoughts
- Eric: “Refreshing to see business leaders stand up to the federal government...the United States needs much more of that.” [39:52]
- Jason: Emphasizes need for good-faith, American-style debate, bemoans current political divisiveness.
- Logan & Eric: Risk in startup and investing goes beyond tech—it’s personal (funny, sobering tales about dangerous airports and ‘toxic wealth’).
- Strong optimism for the democratization of agentic AI, but recurring warnings about cost, privacy, and cultural/political obstacles.
Summary Table of Important Segments
| Timestamp | Segment | Key Topic/Quote | |------------|---------------------------------------------------------|--------------------------------------------------------------| | 00:45 | OpenClaw Ascendance | "Number one open source project..." | | 03:19 | Stablecoin Thesis | Logan: TradFi adoption, “money will move digitally” | | 07:01 | Venice AI Vision | Eric: Privacy & censorship absent in AI | | 14:22 | AI & Surveillance | Eric: "Mass surveillance of all humanity" | | 15:59 | Enterprise AI Adoption | Logan: "Driven by cybersec" | | 23:07 | Jevons Paradox | Jason: AI use > Payroll | | 28:41 | Anthropic Revenue & Pentagon Standoff | $19B run rate, gov't vs. CEO values | | 33:25 | Government Contracts | "Work with the military...product will be used to kill" | | 34:54 | Defense/Surveillance Morality | Eric: Explains Anthropic safeguards | | 42:46 | Sightline Demo | Bot analytics for agentic sites | | 57:37 | OpenClaw Studio Demo | UX for non-devs to use OpenClaw agents | | 68:10 | TradFi & Bitcoin | Eric: “You don't do that without the system merging with it” | | 72:34 | Most Indispensable AI Tools | Claude, Venice, Grok, OpenClaw agents |
Overall Tone
Lively, candid, and sometimes irreverent, with a heavy dose of insider humor and debate. The panelists challenge each other's assumptions (especially on ethics/government), offer frank advice to founders, and deliver concrete examples from their own workflows and investments.
For listeners who missed the episode:
You’ll get deep insight into the open-source AI revolution, why privacy and agentic AI are crucial, how investors are picking winners, what the Anthropic-Pentagon standoff reveals about tech ethics, and a first look at agentic AI tools for the next decade of startups.