This Week in Startups – Episode E2213

Title: Jason predicts a “major M&A moment” in the next six months!
Date: November 22, 2025
Host: Jason Calacanis
Guest/Co-host: Alex Wilhelm

Episode Overview

In this episode, Jason Calacanis and Alex Wilhelm cover the latest in startups, tech, AI, and markets—zeroing in on AI’s explosive growth, Nvidia’s latest earnings, contentious debates over hardware depreciation, and emerging M&A trends. Jason also shares startup expansion news, discusses the global restaurant industry as an IP ecosystem, and predicts a dramatic rise in major tech mergers and acquisitions within the next year.

Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. Las Vegas Tech & Hospitality Crossroads

• Jason describes his Vegas trip, highlighting how casinos compete by curating globally renowned restaurants, emphasizing the power of product IP and cross-market expansion.
  • Quote: “It really just goes to show you the value of IP… If you can make a great product, it can make it to those different cities, whether it’s Uber, Airbnb or Carbone or Mott32.” (05:02)

2. Founder University Expands Globally

• Jason announces that Founder University is launching in Tokyo in January 2026, after successful U.S. and Riyadh cohorts.
• The program is tailored to Japanese founders or companies targeting the Japanese/US markets, featuring in-person and virtual components.
  • Quote: “We’re really seeing this globalization… there is a very large group of Americans who are based there now.” (08:33)
• Jason highlights the emerging trend: investors and founders are now highly global, adapting products for local cultures (e.g., mocktails in Saudi Arabia).

3. AI Industry & Nvidia Earnings

• Alex and Jason break down Nvidia’s blowout quarter; Jason notes “AI buildout is going spectacularly,” but warns of froth and “round-tripping” deals.
• They analyze Nvidia's (tentative) multibillion investments in OpenAI and Anthropic, pointing out the lack of binding commitments.
  • Quote (on MOU vs. hard deals): “We call it a letter of nothing in the startup community… it’s all optional.” (14:34)
• Group chats are buzzing about AI deal structures, fears of bubbles, and potential unintended consequences.
  • Jensen Huang’s quote via BI: “If we delivered a bad quarter, it’s evidence that there is an AI bubble. If we delivered a great quarter, we’re fueling the AI bubble.” (11:41)

4. AI Consumer Adoption: Google Surprises

• Alex shares new usage stats: Gemini’s AI Search reportedly reaches 2 billion MAUs (monthly active users), Gemini App claims 650M MAUs, while ChatGPT is at 800M/week (~900M/month).
  • Quote: “If this information is correct, Gemini now has 20% more users every month than ChatGPT… Gemini is beating ChatGPT in consumer adoption of AI.” – Jason (22:28-23:01)
• The hosts discuss how bundling (like Google’s integration or Microsoft Teams) drives adoption numbers, but true engagement vs. default usage remains murky.

5. Comparative Analysis: AI Image Generation Models

• Jason reacts to a test of Gemini 3 Pro’s infographic generator vs. OpenAI’s GPT-5 Vision, using Austin BBQ spots as a prompt.
  • Gemini’s “Nano Banana Pro” produced a highly accurate, polished result. OpenAI’s version was riddled with errors.
  • Quote: “If you’re a graphic designer, you need to know how to use these tools and know how to edit from third base, essentially.” (40:13)
• This demonstration drives home how AI will disrupt creative industries—“If you had three designers… you would just get rid of the illustrator.”

6. Hardware Depreciation Debate: Nvidia, Michael Burry, and Accounting Drama (27:47 onwards)

• The hosts unpack Michael Burry’s claims that big tech is inflating earnings by stretching GPU depreciation schedules.
• Jason contends this analogy is flawed: hardware isn’t just “retired”—it may have post-cycle utility like old cars or airplanes during peak season.
  • Quote: “That would be like saying I had a Corvette C7 and the C8, 8th generation came out. So I took the C7 and I parked it in the garage… That car’s going to be driven for another 10 years.” (28:13, 33:28)

7. M&A Predictions and Market Cycles

• Jason predicts a dramatic M&A (“major M&A moment”) wave within the next 6–12 months, with mid-cap tech companies ($25–250B) being acquired or merged.
  • “We’re going to see a company on the scale of an Airbnb, an Uber, a Coinbase… we’re going to see one of these pop in the next year.” (50:53)
• He cites regulatory leniency (Meta, Google “nothingburger” oversights), incoming rate cuts, and capital flows as tailwinds.
• Speculations on which M&As could materialize: Amazon buying DoorDash, Uber merging with Waymo, Apple acquiring Figma or Adobe.

8. Advice for Software Engineers in the Age of AI

• Jason urges engineers to focus on building agentic workflows: automation agents for routine organizational chores (e.g., daily news digests, internal reporting).
  • Quote: “If you can study chores that people do… and build an agent that allows this to occur… I would look at agentic workflows.” (52:26)

Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• On Startup Internationalization (Jason, 05:02):
  “If you can perfect something in one market, the markets are now becoming very similar. We have a global culture now.”
• On “Round-Tripping” and AI Investment Announcements (Jason, 14:34):
  “We call it a letter of nothing in the startup community… it’s all optional.”
• On Google AI’s User Numbers (Jason, 22:28):
  “Let me just state this clearly. If this information is correct, Gemini now has 20% more users every month than ChatGPT… Gemini is beating ChatGPT in consumer adoption of AI.”
• On AI’s Impact on Creative Work (Jason, 40:13):
  “If you’re a graphic designer, you need to know how to use these tools and know how to edit from third base, essentially.”
• On Hardware Lifespan & Depreciation (Jason, 33:28):
  “That would be like saying I had a Corvette C7 and the C8… So I took the C7 and I parked it in the garage… That car’s going to be driven for another 10 years. What are we talking about here?”
• On Upcoming Tech M&A (Jason, 50:53):
  “We’re going to see a company on the scale of an Airbnb, an Uber, a Coinbase… we’re going to see one of these pop in the next year.”
• Advice for Engineers (Jason, 52:26):
  “I would look at agentic workflows, whether it’s in the accounting department, the HR department, whatever it is. Because people want to be more fit in their companies. They want to be lean, mean, fighting machines.”

Timestamps for Major Segments

| Timestamp | Segment or Topic | |-----------|--------------------------------------------------------| | 00:00 | Jason’s Vegas trip, global restaurant competition | | 05:00 | Restaurant IP, Carbone in global markets | | 07:45 | Founder University Tokyo expansion | | 11:41 | Nvidia earnings, AI buildout & AI investment structure | | 12:22 | Nvidia/OpenAI/Anthropic what’s actually committed? | | 17:21 | OpenAI’s deals & Sam Altman’s style | | 19:42 | Gemini vs. ChatGPT: Consumer AI usage numbers | | 27:47 | Nvidia hardware depreciation, Michael Burry's critique | | 37:49 | Gemini 3 Pro vs. GPT-5 Vision: AI graphic showdown | | 43:44 | AI model comparison week in review | | 44:02 | M&A predictions, market outlook | | 52:26 | What engineers should focus on in the AI era |

Episode Takeaways

• The AI arms race is being led, unexpectedly, by Google in consumer reach. OpenAI is struggling to maintain dominance as rivals catch up on capabilities and distribution.
• Big Tech’s accounting games over AI hardware depreciation are under scrutiny, but might be less scandalous than some critics claim.
• Founders and engineers should focus on agentic workflows: using AI to automate and optimize routine organizational tasks.
• M&A is coming: The next year will likely see at least one blockbuster acquisition, driven by excess capital, regulatory clearance, and a search for growth among established tech giants.
• Globalization’s impact: Whether it’s restaurants or accelerators, scalable IP and the rise of multinational entrepreneurship are reshaping markets everywhere.

This episode is essential listening for anyone watching the tectonic shifts between AI competitors, the ripple effects of new models and platforms, and those seeking practical advice on thriving in the rapidly evolving startup and tech landscape.