This Week in Startups – Episode E2219 Summary
Date: December 6, 2025
Host: Jason Calacanis
Guests: Alex Wilhelm, Lon Harris
Episode Overview
This episode dives into the seismic news of Netflix acquiring Warner Brothers’ film and TV assets, making industry predictions around streaming, the fate of movie theaters, and regulatory challenges. Jason also outlines his vision for revitalizing Disney and theatrical experiences. In the back half, the panel discusses prediction markets, insider trading scandals, legal battles involving AI platforms, and promising startups from the latest Y Combinator cohort.
Main Discussion Topics & Insights
1. Netflix Acquires Warner Brothers – Industry Impact
[00:00–08:42]
- Deal Details: Netflix wins the bidding war for Warner Brothers’ film and TV assets, including Harry Potter, HBO shows, DC Comics, and Barbie IP. The $72 billion deal ($82.7B enterprise value) excludes CNN and cable networks, which will spin out independently.
- Regulatory Concerns: Intense scrutiny expected, especially in international (EMEA) markets where Netflix + HBO Max will dominate.
- Market Growth: Netflix revenues in EMEA nearly match U.S./Canada; APAC is their highest-growth region.
- Deal Size: The deal represents about 17% of Netflix’s $423B market cap.
Quote:
"Netflix plus HBO Max is going to be a dominant player in a lot of international markets. Netflix already has been really tough for a lot of international marketplaces. Combine that with the power of HBO Max, and I feel like Europe is going to be a really hard nut to crack." – Lon Harris [02:25]
2. The Future of Theatrical Releases
[05:35–08:42]
- Theatrical Collapse Concerns: If Netflix pulls Warner Bros. releases from theaters or shortens theatrical windows, "the theatrical business would collapse."
- Netflix’s Intentions: Ted Sarandos reportedly plans to keep WB movies in theaters but with much shorter exclusivity windows.
- Strategic Play: Speculation that Netflix could intentionally “strangle” theaters to push at-home viewing.
Quote:
"The very dark, cynical take on this would be, that is why Netflix wants Warner Brothers so bad, because it could slowly strangle the remaining life out of their major competitor for your entertainment dollar." – Lon Harris [06:47]
3. Jason Calacanis’ Disney Takeover Plan & Theaters Revamp
[09:53–16:41]
- Jason’s Vision: Proposes that Disney should buy out major theater chains, offering perks to Disney+ members (e.g., $1 movie tickets, theater rentals, exclusive previews).
- Artist-First Approach: Promises theatrical freedom and dedicated screens to big directors (e.g., Tarantino, Spielberg, Nolan) to keep them loyal to Disney.
- Innovation: Envisions a hybrid experience where theaters become community hubs for watching both new releases and curated classic films or podcast events.
Memorable Pitch:
"Disney should buy the movie theaters. Anybody who owns Disney should be able to go for $1 per seat to any Disney film and for $100 per theater... You get to watch the new Ashoka there." – Jason Calacanis [11:00, paraphrased]
4. Revival & ‘Microtheater’ Movement
[17:02–19:37]
- Microtheaters: Advocates for minimum viable product by owning/building a single, small high-end theater in cities like Austin to showcase curated content and live podcast debuts.
- Changing Habits: Predicts a renaissance for revival houses, anime, and special-interest screenings as mainstream theatrical declines.
5. Broader Consumer Shifts & the Return of ‘Real’ Experiences
[20:41–23:15]
- Gen Z Nostalgia: Observes a trend toward unplugging from digital ‘junk food’ (short-form, vapid content) in favor of enriching, in-person experiences—even predicting a return of manual stick-shift cars as a symbol.
- Cultural Cycle: Philosophizes that every digital trend will have an analog backlash.
Quote:
"At some point there is going to be a movement where people say, I don’t want self driving anymore. I want a stick shift." – Jason Calacanis [21:52]
6. Prediction Markets & Insider Bets Controversy
[26:02–34:53]
- Polymarket Scandal: A user named “Alpha Raccoon” (now 0axfeed) made ~$1M on inside bets about Google’s Gemini AI release and search trends, raising questions about insider trading in prediction markets.
- Regulation Nuances: While the SEC doesn’t regulate this space, CFTC bans market manipulation but not insider information—highlighting an evolving legal gray area.
- Corporate Policy Response: Expect companies to explicitly ban employees from betting on work-related markets.
Quote:
"In prediction markets there is insider trading....once someone finds out an insider from Google is making a bet..., they could take that information as a third party and trade on it themselves." – Alex Wilhelm [30:26]
7. Startup Accelerators & the 2025 YC Batch
[36:09–44:17]
- Trends: Most YC startups remain U.S./Canada based; strong focus on B2B, fewer consumer companies.
- Top Picks:
- Lightberry: “Social brain for robots”—no-code, voice-programming for robotics.
- Dome: Unified API for prediction markets data.
- Zephyr Fusion: Fusion power for space (future market bet).
- Icarus: High-flying, solar planes for persistent defense surveillance.
- Play Health: Perimenopause care.
- Sunflower: App for breaking addiction habits.
- Advice: Feel-good (e.g. health, sobriety, climate) startups face a much higher bar with VCs, who want proven business models and clear returns.
Quote:
"Don’t give yourself credit for that [press/features]. Give yourself credit for a customer being addicted to your product and being willing to pay for it and having a high gross margin." – Jason Calacanis [47:48]
8. AI Copyright Wars: Perplexity vs. Publishers
[53:00–58:34]
- Context: Perplexity (an AI-powered search/chat tool) is being sued by the NY Times and other outlets for allegedly scraping and summarizing content.
- Industry Precedent: Recalls Rupert Murdoch’s early warnings about Google as a “parasite.”
- Solution: Predicts that deals will formalize soon (e.g., paying $/story, licensing percentages); cites Meta, Microsoft already paying for news content.
- User Fair Use: Draws distinction between individual user rights to remix content versus companies training LLMs on third-party content en masse.
9. Rise of Expert-Driven AI Trainers
[59:09–62:20]
- Company Spotlight: Micro One – connects domain experts with AI shops to help train and refine models, now at $100M+ ARR.
- Jason’s Take: Predicts the “future of AI is expert training, not scraping,” and expects the sector to balloon.
Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments
- “Everything's a war. Business is a war. Especially in a complex space like this.” – Jason Calacanis [09:53]
- “If they strangle the theaters, then they increase the habit of people watching at home on 83 inch, $400 television.” – Jason Calacanis [07:47]
- “If you are a founder...the game on the field is, don't give yourself credit for any kind of high fives or getting included in the list here... Give yourself credit for a customer being addicted to your product...” – Jason Calacanis [47:48]
- "The whales are doomed." – Alex Wilhelm, on optimism about “feel-good” startups [49:57]
- “You should just have an authentication process and if people have a subscription, you can then access New York Times data and have it represented there in a very proper way.” – Jason Calacanis [57:25]
- “The future of AI is not scraping data anymore... It’s not synthetic data... What you need is to have experts...” – Jason Calacanis [60:14]
Key Timestamps
- 00:00–04:49 – Breaking down the Netflix-WB deal, global implications
- 05:35–08:42 – The ripple effect on theaters and the film industry
- 09:53–16:41 – Jason’s Disney/Revival theater vision & industry pitch
- 17:02–19:37 – Microtheater concept and evolving movie-going habits
- 26:02–34:53 – Prediction markets, Polymarket insider trading saga
- 36:09–44:17 – YC 2025 batch trends and candid startup/VC advice
- 53:00–58:34 – Perplexity/AI copyright clash, licensing solutions
- 59:09–62:20 – Rise of expert-trained AI and promising SaaS businesses
Summary
This charged TWIST episode covers a new era in streaming as Netflix nabs Warner Bros., shaking global entertainment. Jason, in vintage form, reimagines the future of theaters and proposes bold moves for Disney. The conversation expands to legal gray zones in prediction markets, the startup accelerator ecosystem, and copyright battles reshaping AI. This episode is a must-listen primer on how media, technology, and venture capital’s cutting edge are converging in 2025—and who the likely winners will be.