Podcast Summary: This Week in Startups – "Waymo Madness in SF! Why Robotaxis Clogged the Streets" (E2227)

Date: December 23, 2025
Host: Jason Calacanis
Guest/Co-host: Alex Wilhelm

Main Theme & Purpose

This episode dives deep into the recent chaos in San Francisco when a major power outage disrupted Waymo robotaxis, leading to blocked intersections and a city-wide debate about the future of autonomous vehicles and the infrastructure needed to support them. Jason Calacanis and Alex Wilhelm break down the technical hiccups, competitive landscape, industry implications, AI advances, and more. The episode finishes with a live Gamma pitch from an emerging startup, Lumix Ads.

Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. Waymo Robotaxi Meltdown During SF Power Outage

• Incident Recap

  • Massive power outage in San Francisco (130,000 customers affected).
  • Multiple Waymo self-driving cars stalled at intersections, blocking traffic, unable to handle the “edge case” of dead traffic lights and connectivity loss.

• Analysis of the Failure

  • Jason: “This is, I don’t think, exactly what Waymo was promising the world.” (00:00)
  • Alex describes streets “just stopped in intersections... blocking traffic.” (00:11)
  • Jason observes real-time responses from Uber drivers and speculates on Waymo’s technical dependence on both internet connectivity and working street infrastructure.
    • “The parking lane on the right, the middle lane and the left lane ... these are the edge cases that will be quickly solved.” (00:54)
  • Suggests Waymo lacked fallback programming for intersection failures; expects this problem won't recur as companies learn from it.

• Competitor Performance

  • Tesla robotaxis reportedly unaffected—owner of a competing service brags, “Tesla Robo taxis were unaffected by the SF power outage.” (06:18)
  • Debate over software approaches: Waymo uses map-based & heuristic models (more brittle in unknown scenarios); Tesla pushes end-to-end machine learning, potentially more resilient.

2. Technical Infrastructure and the Future of Connectivity

• Tesla’s Satellite Connectivity Vision

  • Jason recalls predicting years ago that every Tesla would ship with Starlink satellite connectivity:
    • “I predict that every Tesla produced will have a satellite dish on it... just like satellite radio was in every car.” (08:15)
  • Discusses benefits of a mesh network of cars and possible cross-brand licensing deals, creating a “giant mesh type network” for robust, vehicle-to-vehicle and vehicle-to-cloud communications.

• Industry Implications

  • The hosts agree ubiquitous, reliable car connectivity is the next leap but note that “5G is expensive and ‘the annoyance of it’—nobody wants yet another subscription.” (10:20)
  • Starlink could be the tipping point for affordable, always-on global car communication.

3. Tesla’s Robotics Program and Consumer Receptivity

• Jason’s Visit to Tesla

  • Jason gets a behind-the-scenes look at Optimus 3, Tesla’s humanoid robot:
    • “If [Elon] can accomplish 10% of what he said publicly right now, these robots are going to change the world in a way that I don’t think people are understanding.” (11:52)
  • Fine motor control, AI, and hardware integration point to robots capable of advanced tasks (“...build a Swiss watch to perfection ... a 20-course Michelin dinner”).

• Societal Paradigms: Adoption Curves

  • Younger generations likely to quickly accept self-driving cars; home robotics may face slower adoption due to privacy and safety concerns:
    • “I can see [my spouse] getting in a self-driving car in two or three years, but I think this might take a little longer.” (14:05)

• Privacy and Surveillance

  • Jason predicts an era of “opt-in Truman Show” living where AI, wearables, and robots monitor daily life for safety and utility, with old privacy objections declining:
    • “I do think privacy as a blocker is going to end.” (15:57)

4. Self-Driving, Regulation, and Market Transformations

• Global Rollout of Robo Taxis

  • Baidu’s Apollo Go teams up with Lyft & Uber to bring Chinese robo taxis to London.
    • Alex: “If regulators give it the nod we will see Chinese robo taxis under two American brands operating in London ... quite a big deal.” (18:53)
  • Jason highlights regulatory fragmentation: you’ll need approval from every municipality to operate, making scaling operationally difficult outside China.

• Upcoming Investment Boom

  • Jason forecasts exponential market growth:
    • “I think we're going to have 50% of rides be done by ride-sharing ... going to need about 500 million of these robo taxis on the road... It’s going to be one of the greatest categories of AI wealth creation ever.” (24:35)

• Competition and Price Dynamics

  • Ride price per mile expected to drop from $2-3 to ~$0.50-$1, driving up usage and causing traditional car ownership rates to plummet.

5. Big Tech M&A and Strategy

• Google’s Mega-Deal on Intersect

  • Google acquires Intersect (data center + power infra company) for $4.75B: signals ongoing AI compute race, not compute overbuilding; “...the AI bubble, concerns about compute overbuild do not hold water, at least in the case of Google.” (27:10)
  • Jason foresees more mega M&A:
    • “I think Google is going to buy Uber ... the only way for Waymo to compete with Tesla...” (28:11)

• The Emerging Tech “Stack Wars”

  • Amazon: Project Leo (satellites) + Zoox (robotaxis) + AWS
  • Tesla: xAI, RoboTaxi, Starlink
  • Google: (If Uber/Waymo merges) – would have mapping, ride-sharing, self-driving, but not satellite comms.

• Physical Manufacturing Remains a Moat

  • Jason: “The massive competitive advantage of Tesla is they can pump out 3 million cars a year ... he’s in a unique position.” (31:23)

6. Advances in AI Models & Benchmarks

• Breakneck Progress

  • Alex shares that AI models’ ‘intelligence’ scores have doubled or tripled in a year:
    • “Everything’s gotten two and a half times better ... if you were to keep pushing that out, what’s left to do is the question.” (41:51)
  • Benchmark scores from OpenAI, Anthropic, Google, and Chinese labs all converge near the top—prompting the question of what the next meaningful AI challenge will be.

• Next Frontier: Autonomous Agency

  • Jason: “We do need to have like some agent type testing ... can it independently solve problems that are novel?” (43:29)

7. Gamma Pitch: Lumix Ads Presentation (47:09–58:21)

Jonathan Sherman, founder of Lumix Ads, pitches:

• Lumix's platform leverages delivery bikers’ vehicles with LED mobile billboards, combining real-world impressions with advanced digital retargeting.

• Case study: A Miami preschool used Lumix’s solution, “amassed 98 leads... generating 3.4 times her money... enough to fully enroll her program and stabilize her business.” (50:00)

• Monetization: “Each biker generates 200,000 views per month, netting Lumix $2,000 per month per bike display ... we’ve now surpassed $55,000 in MRR and as of this month are profitable.” (50:45)

• Technology: Captures mobile ad IDs of nearby devices through apps already sharing location, then retargets across platforms like Meta, TikTok.

  • “The average lag between having a Lumix campaign out on the streets ... is 24 hours.” (55:36)

• 85% gross margins; $700 hardware per bike; ongoing costs ~$300/month; scaling plans outlined.

Notable VC Praise

• Jason: “You put all these things together, feels like the right team at the right time with the right technology tailwinds behind them. What an amazing opportunity.” (53:34)

Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

| Timestamp | Speaker | Quote | |---|---|---| | 00:00 | Alex | “This is, I don’t think, exactly what Waymo was promising the world.” | | 04:14 | Jason | “These are the edge cases that will be quickly solved. You can be sure that there's an emergency meeting going on of what do we do when power goes out.” | | 06:18 | Alex | “Tesla Robo taxis were unaffected by the SF power outage.” | | 08:15 | Jason | “I predict that every Tesla produced will have a satellite dish on it... just like satellite radio was in every car.” | | 11:52 | Jason | “If he can accomplish 10% of what he said publicly right now, these robots are going to change the world in a way that I don’t think people are understanding.” | | 15:57 | Jason | “I do think privacy as a blocker is going to end. And the fear of giving up control of things that don't feel safe is ended already.” | | 24:35 | Jason | “It’s going to be one of the greatest categories of AI wealth creation ever.” | | 28:11 | Jason | “I think Google is going to buy Uber ... the only way for Waymo to compete with Tesla...” | | 41:51 | Jason | “Everything’s gotten two and a half times better. If you keep pushing that out, what’s left to do is the question.” | | 53:34 | Jason | “Feels like the right team at the right time with the right technology tailwinds behind them. What an amazing opportunity.” |

Highlighted Timestamps

• Main SF Outage/Waymo Segment: 00:00–07:00
• Tesla Connectivity/Satellites: 07:00–11:00
• Optimus/Robotics Future: 11:40–15:55
• Global Robo Taxi Rollout: 18:53–24:00
• Future Market/AI Wealth Creation: 24:00–26:30
• Google/Intersect Deal & M&A: 26:29–30:00
• AI Model Benchmark Progress: 39:47–44:31
• Lumix Ads Pitch: 47:09–58:21

Tone & Style

The episode maintains a fast-paced, pragmatic, and future-focused tone. Jason Calacanis combines investor-savvy analysis with entrepreneur optimism, while Alex Wilhelm adds journalistic skepticism and technical depth. The duo riff on edge-case incidents not as catastrophic failures but as critical learning opportunities propelling technology forward.

For Listeners Who Missed the Episode

This discussion is a must-listen for anyone interested in autonomous vehicles, AI, hardware startups, and the competitive landscape of big tech transportation/compute plays. The Waymo incident sparks wide-ranging debate about machine learning, operational risks, infrastructure, market consolidation, regulation, and what it’ll truly take for new technological paradigms (robotaxis, home robots, ubiquitous AI) to cross the chasm into daily life. The Lumix Ads pitch is a masterclass in hardware-enabled SaaS and real-world network effects for the SMB market.

End of Summary