This Week in Tech (TWiT) Ep. 1026: I Know of BigBalls - TWIST Takeover

Date: April 7, 2025
Host: Leo Laporte
Guests: Jason Calacanis, Alex Wilhelm

Episode Overview

This special edition of TWiT features a "This Week in Startups (TWIST) Takeover," with Leo Laporte joined by Jason Calacanis (All In, This Week in Startups) and Alex Wilhelm (Cautious Optimism newsletter). The lively roundtable dives deep into the week’s most pivotal tech news, focusing on US political shifts, the shockwaves of new tariffs, the evolving AI and robotics landscape, and how all these changes impact Silicon Valley, the global economy, and entrepreneurship. Packed with real talk, sharp analysis, and signature humor, the conversation examines the intersection of politics, technology, and business.

Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. The Politics of Tech: Silicon Valley, Tariffs, and Trump’s Second Term

• Silicon Valley’s Reaction to Trump’s Presidency

  • Initial tech expectations: many in tech supported Trump for his perceived support of accelerationist policies, crypto, and AI, but are now grappling with unexpected deceleration due to sweeping tariffs and economic uncertainty.
    • “Big tech backed Trump for acceleration. They got a decel president instead.” (Leo, 08:40)

• Tariffs, Uncertainty, and Market Reaction

  • Trump’s broad new tariffs, intended as a negotiation tactic, caused massive market volatility, prompting concern among tech giants (e.g., Apple facing steep tariffs even after shifting production to Vietnam and India).
    • “Trump has been in favor of tariffs for decades... He said, these countries are ripping us off for 30 years. So he’s done what he always wanted to do.” (Alex, 19:15)
  • Jason’s “72-hour Trump rule”: wait three days to see what remains after the bluster. He predicts Trump will rapidly back off if the market tanks.
    • (Jason, 16:12-18:02)

• US-China Tech Tensions & Soft Power Concerns

  • Tariffs risk driving allies and trade partners towards China and Russia, potentially weakening US global influence.
    • “We’re going to drive people—democracies and our partners—to partner with [autocrats]. It’s really about soft power.” (Jason, 31:03)
  • Economic interconnectedness as a peacekeeping tool: “...even if a mortal enemy is a big trade partner... I think they’re less likely to attack us.” (Leo, 29:29)

2. Crypto, AI Policy, and the Political Chessboard

• Crypto’s Regulatory Relief under Trump

  • Trump seen as crypto-friendly: deregulating, pardoning, and firing regulators—delighting VCs and major funds but raising questions about broader trade-offs.
    • “If you were hoping for someone to take the heat off of crypto, I don’t think you could [do better].” (Alex, 13:23)
  • Big players like Andreessen Horowitz are embedded in policy and pleased with the new environment.

• The Realpolitik of Negotiation

  • Tariffs, TikTok, and major deals (Vietnam, China) entwined as bargaining chips in Trump’s hands, using uncertainty to force concessions.
    • “He wants everybody on edge. He wants to be the main character.” (Jason, 16:12)
    • Likely to “relent” if markets crash, restoring tech and economic stability before midterms.

3. National Security & the ‘Technological Republic’

• Palantir’s Karp & the Case for Tech-Defense Alignment

  • Discussion of Alex Karp’s “The Technological Republic”: calls for American technologists to re-engage with government and defense, focusing on software and AI as the backbone of modern power.
    • “...it’s time for us to really sit back and think... Silicon Valley needs to readjust its values and start... it’s okay to say we want to protect America.” (Leo, 46:06)

• Military Innovation and the New Arms Race

  • AI-driven defense technology (drones, robots, cyber warfare) is now central; US needs robust public-private collaboration to stay ahead.
    • “We really need to upgrade our capabilities in that regard… drones and information satellites, Starlink—all these things are playing a very prominent role…” (Jason, 46:43)

4. Industrial Capacity, Manufacturing, and the Price of Reshoring

• Can the US Replace Foreign Factories?

  • Apple and chipmakers struggle to recreate Asian manufacturing prowess domestically—citing workforce cost and regulatory barriers.
    • “The long-term point is… it’s difficult for us to duplicate these manufacturing capabilities in the United States.” (Leo, 55:32)
  • US strengths: entrepreneurial spirit, regulatory competition among states, and tech innovation.

• Labor, Automation & “Jobs Americans Don’t Want”

  • Tariff and reshoring efforts clash with labor realities: many manufacturing/entry-level jobs go unfilled by Americans, often done by immigrants or, soon, by robots.

5. Robots, AI, and the Next Big Wave

• 2025: Year of the General-Purpose Robot

  • China and US companies racing to bring humanoid robots out of the factory and into homes—seen as crucial for next-gen AI development.
    • “The robots need to get out into the world—experience, physics, embodiment—that’s critical for their intelligence...” (Leo, 119:37)
  • US startups and Tesla (with “Optimus”) are in the game, but China’s speed and focus on mass deployment is raising the bar.

• AI, AGI, and Automation of Everything

  • Debate over AI’s impact on employment: will AI replace programmers, researchers, “baby lawyers,” and consultants, or just supercharge their productivity?
    • “There will always be a section of development for humans, but quite a lot that’s done today simply doesn’t need to be done by humans.” (Alex, 137:57)
  • AGI vs. Superintelligence: Timeframes debated (AGI within a decade, superintelligence likely farther out).
    • “If we have an AI that’s smarter than every living human being, then I think we’ve hit AGI.” (Jason, 156:46)

6. TikTok, Law, and Algorithmic Power Plays

• TikTok’s Fate: The US-China Data Bargain

  • TikTok’s US ban in limbo as deal negotiations continue—Trump leveraging extension for concessions on tariffs and potentially Taiwan.
    • “If China lets us buy TikTok, then I’m considering lowering tariffs… the silliest thing I have ever…” (Leo, 84:13)
  • Who will buy TikTok? Jason’s prediction: “80% chance Amazon wins it.”
    • “Trump likes to have deep relationships with successful people and… Bezos has been making some donations, getting involved in politics…” (Jason, 89:00)

• Algorithm export: Non-negotiable?

  • Chinese government unwilling to sell TikTok’s secret sauce; buyers may only acquire users, not the tech.
    • (Jason, 91:07)

7. Entrepreneurship, Media, and the Future of Tech Startups

• The New Geography of Startups: Welcome to Austin

  • Austin is becoming “the new startup capital”—offering affordable living, no state income tax, and a healthy culture for founders escaping Silicon Valley’s sky-high prices and regulations.

• Aging Media, Newsletters, & the Rise of the New Independent

  • TechCrunch’s decline and the soul-draining effect of private equity on media—calls to action for entrepreneurial stewardship of media brands in the TikTok/short video era.
    • “Media needs impresarios who care... private equity just wrings the soul out.” (Jason, 191:23)

8. Memorable Moments & Quotes

On Tech & Politics:

• “Whoever wins, support the president as best you can... call out the terrible things, the mistakes... calling balls and strikes.” (Jason, 07:07)
• “We survived Trump one, we’ll survive Trump two.” (Jason, 100:35)

On Economic Impact:

• “If you can’t plan for the future and you have uncertainty, what businesses do is they pause... that’s what’s going to happen.” (Jason, 63:27)
• “Boeing has squandered decades of public and private largess with incompetence and mismanagement.” (Alex, 176:20)

On Robots & AI:

• “AI has consumed everything it can on the Internet… what’s missing is an understanding of physics, a sensorium… and that might be critical in advancing AI.” (Leo, 119:37)
• “This is like a 10-year arc to a Toyota Prius Model 3 moment where we’ll be sitting here 10 years from now on TWiT and there’ll be one of them walking behind you.” (Jason, 121:42)

Noteworthy Timestamps

• Tariffs and the Tech Industry: 12:00–19:30
• Trump’s Negotiation Tactics & the “72-Hour Rule”: 16:00–18:00
• Crypto Policy Shift, Andreessen, and Pardons: 13:00–14:00
• Karp’s “Technological Republic” and Military AI: 43:55–53:00
• TikTok Negotiations & the Looming Sale: 81:00–93:00
• Robots, Embodied AI, & 2025’s Next Wave: 119:37–123:32
• AGI, AI in Coding & the Future of Work: 135:10–142:21
• Legacy Media, PE Buyouts, and Soul of Tech Journalism: 191:23–192:09

Special “TWIST Takeover” Flavor

• Jason’s signature salesmanship and off-the-cuff commentary enliven the discussion (e.g., ads, startup plugs, and Leo banter).
• Heartfelt exchanges about old times, podcasting’s origins, and how serendipity binds the SF tech scene together.

TL;DR

This episode delivers a lively, irreverent, but deeply informed debate on how tech is colliding with politics, economic policy, and global competition in 2025. Tariffs are shaking Silicon Valley, TikTok’s fate hangs in the balance, AI and robots are reshaping what work means, and the old world of tech media faces extinction-by-private-equity. Through it all, Leo, Jason, and Alex balance cautious optimism with hard-headed realism—reminding us that in tech, survival always depends on adaptation and a strong dose of self-awareness.

For New Listeners:

This summary provides a full roadmap of the episode’s high points, arguments, and critical info—don’t miss the witty asides, insight-laden rants, and the convivial (sometimes noir) camaraderie of three tech world heavyweights.