Can Government Action Tame Rising Energy Prices?

Summary

Podcast Summary: Thoughts on the Market

Episode: Can Government Action Tame Rising Energy Prices?
Date: March 25, 2026
Host: Ariana Salvatore, Head of Public Policy Research, Morgan Stanley

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Overview

In this episode, Ariana Salvatore unpacks the global economic fallout and policy responses to soaring energy prices amid the ongoing U.S.–Iran conflict. She navigates vital supply chain disruptions, the geopolitical landscape, and the effectiveness—and limits—of government action to mitigate the impact on oil markets and broader economies.

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Key Discussion Points and Insights

1. The Global Stakes and Supply Chain Disruptions

• The conflict has stretched into its fourth week, making markets nervous about escalation or potential resolution.
• The Middle East remains critical for global supply chains, not only for oil but for other energy-intensive industries like aluminum, petrochemicals, fertilizers, and crucial materials for semiconductors (sulfur, cobalt, helium).
  • "The global supply crunch is top of mind. But we're also watching for second order effects among a number of key supply chains..." (00:27–00:38)

2. Magnitude of the Oil Disruption

• The Strait of Hormuz, now a geopolitical flashpoint, "accounts for about 20% of global oil supply and about a third of seaborne oil." (00:51–00:56)
• Disruption estimates: about 20 million barrels daily at risk.

3. Policy Levers Under Consideration

Ariana details three main avenues policymakers are pursuing:

• Alternative Pipelines

  • Saudi Arabia’s east-west pipeline and UAE’s Abu Dhabi crude pipeline can reroute some, but not all, flows around Hormuz.

• Naval Escorts

  • The U.S. has proposed naval escorts for tankers, but "there are significant execution risks" (01:17–01:20) as well as logistical challenges.

• Strategic Oil Stock Releases

  • The International Energy Agency (IEA) may release up to 2 million barrels/day from strategic reserves, with timing bottlenecks due to geographic constraints.

• Collectively, these measures might offset 9 million barrels per day—leaving an "11 million barrels per day" shortfall, "more than three times the supply shock" seen during the Russia-Ukraine conflict (01:53–02:10).

4. Global Response and Demand-Side Measures

• Asia’s Response

  • Philippines: four-day workweek and government fuel/electricity usage cuts.
  • Myanmar: driving limits for fuel conservation.
  • Sri Lanka: gasoline rationing.
  • "We're starting to see countries...begin to implement rationing measures to conserve energy." (02:12–02:17)

• U.S. Policy Moves

  • Gasoline prices have surged by nearly $1 in a month, now nearing $4 per gallon.
  • Policy levers include:
    • Jones Act waiver (allows foreign vessels to transport fuel between U.S. ports)
    • Temporary pause on some Russian and Iranian oil sanctions
    • Drawing on the U.S. Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR)
      • 172 million barrels over 120 days = approx. 1.4 million barrels/day.
    • Key limitation: "the flow rate is going to be the key limit." (03:11–03:13)

5. What to Watch Next

Ariana highlights important indicators and potential moves:

• Tanker transits through vital chokepoints
• Signs of upstream production shutting in
• Storage constraints filling up
• Refinery production cuts
• Most crucial: whether policy around insurance and escorted convoys translates into real-world impact (03:26–03:37).

6. Market Outlook

• Morgan Stanley raises its near-term Brent crude oil forecast to $110 per barrel.
  • "For now, our oil strategists have raised their near term Brent forecast to $110 per barrel, which underscores our US economist’s outlook for weaker growth and stickier inflation." (03:40–03:50)
• Policy tools, while deployed, "seem to be unable to meaningfully offset that disruption." (03:54–03:57)

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Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• On supply chains and risk:
  "The global supply crunch is top of mind. But we're also watching for second order effects among a number of key supply chains, ranging from food to semiconductors." (00:27)
• On the scale of the shock:
  "The global economy will still have to contend with a loss of about 11 million barrels per day, more than three times the supply shock the market feared from the Russia Ukraine conflict back in 2022." (01:57)
• On limitations of release from reserves:
  "Similarly to the IEA stockpile, the flow rate is going to be the key limit. The authorization was for 172 million barrels over a 120 day period, which translates to just about 1.4 million barrels per day on average." (03:11)
• On market and economic outlook:
  "Our oil strategists have raised their near term Brent forecast to $110 per barrel, which underscores our US economist’s outlook for weaker growth and stickier inflation than previously expected." (03:40)

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Key Timestamps

• 00:00–00:51 – Introduction, conflict context & supply chain risks
• 00:51–01:53 – Numbers around the Strait of Hormuz and policy strategies
• 02:10–03:11 – International rationing, U.S. policy measures, limits of SPR and IEA releases
• 03:12–03:54 – Economic implications, monitoring guidance, forecast updates

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Conclusion

Ariana Salvatore delivers a sobering analysis: current government action may soften, but cannot eliminate, the shock of the ongoing supply crisis. With oil flows from the Middle East so critical and policy measures—alternative pipelines, naval escorts, and strategic reserve releases—all falling short of fully replacing lost supply, the scenario points to persistent upward pressure on prices, disruptions across industries, and a dampened economic outlook for months to come.

Transcript

[A]

Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I'm Ariana Salvatore, head of Public Policy Research. Today I'll be talking about the ongoing conflict in Iran and the policy options to offset a rise in oil prices. It's Wednesday, March 25th at 8pm in Tokyo. The U.S. iran conflict is stretching into its fourth week and markets are still trying to distill headlines for news of an off ramp or further escalation. Even here in Tokyo, the global supply crunch is top of mind. But we're also watching for second order effects among a number of key supply chains, ranging from food to semiconductors. As you've been hearing on the show, the Middle east is a critical supplier of aluminum, petrochemicals and fertilizers, all industries that are energy intensive and deeply embedded in global supply chains. There's also sulfur, which is needed to produce copper and cobalt, largely used for chip materials and components, and helium, which is a critical material for semiconductor manufacturing. So with all this supply chain disruption on the line, what are policymakers options to mitigate that loss? Let's start by putting some numbers around the disruption. The Strait of Hormuz accounts for about 20% of global oil supply and about a third of seaborne oil. Our strategists highlight three potential offsets. First, alternative pipelines. Saudi Arabia maintains an east west pipeline and and the UAE similarly has a smaller scale Abu Dhabi crude oil pipeline. Those together can allow for some crude to bypass Hormuz. Second, the US has publicly discussed potential naval escorts. We've written about the logistical difficulties with this plan, in addition to significant execution risks. Third, the IEA has coordinated a strategic stock release, which could translate to a sustained release, around 2 million barrels per day, depending on the duration of the conflict. There are also geographic considerations though, that can add a lag to those strategic releases on net. Putting it all together, our oil strategists think these policy levers can mitigate about 9 million barrels per day from the lost 20, meaning that the global economy will still have to contend with a loss of about 11 million barrels per day, more than three times the supply shock the market feared from the Russia Ukraine conflict back in 2022. So given those limitations, we're starting to see countries around the world, particularly in Asia, begin to implement rationing measures to conserve energy. The Philippines, for example, has implemented a four day workweek for government workers and mandated agencies to cut fuel and electricity use. Myanmar has imposed driving limits. And Sri Lanka has introduced gasoline rationing. But what about in the US We've seen domestic gasoline prices climb due to this conflict and the national average is now close to $4, almost a full dollar up from where we were about a month ago. The president has announced a number of policy efforts, including a Jones act waiver, which temporarily allows foreign vessels to transport fuel between US Ports, and a temporary pause on some Russian and Iranian oil sanctions. President Trump has also directed a release from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve. But similarly to the IEA stockpile, the flow rate is going to be the key limit. The authorization was for 172 million barrels over a 120 day period, which translates to just about 1.4 million barrels per day on average. So what should we be watching? Tanker transits, signs of upstream shut ins at storage fills, refinery run cuts, and most crucially, weather policy announcements on insurance and escorted convoys can actually translate into reality. These are all going to be critical elements going forward. For now, our oil strategists have raised their near term brent forecast to $110per barrel, which underscores our US economist's outlook for weaker growth and stickier inflation than previously expected. And for now, policy tools seem to be unable to meaningfully offset that disruption. Thanks for listening. As a reminder, if you enjoy thoughts on the market, please take a moment to rate and review us wherever you listen and share the podcast with a friend or colleague today.

[B]

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