Chinese Airlines Breaking Through Turbulence

Summary

Podcast Summary: "Chinese Airlines Breaking Through Turbulence"

Podcast Information:

• Title: Thoughts on the Market
• Host/Author: Morgan Stanley
• Episode: Chinese Airlines Breaking Through Turbulence
• Release Date: February 6, 2025
• Description: Short, thoughtful, and regular takes on recent events in the markets from a variety of perspectives and voices within Morgan Stanley.

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Introduction

In the episode titled "Chinese Airlines Breaking Through Turbulence," Morgan Stanley's Chen Leifan, the Hong Kong China Transportation Analyst, delves into the current state and future prospects of Chinese airlines. Released on February 6, 2025, this episode provides a comprehensive analysis of the revival of China's aviation sector after a prolonged period of underperformance.

Current State of Chinese Airlines

Chen Leifan sets the stage by highlighting the significant resurgence of Chinese airlines:

"[...] Chinese airlines are at a once in a decade inflection point and today I'll break down the elements of this turnaround story." [00:00]

He recounts his personal experience during the Lunar New Year, noting:

"Last week, hundreds of millions of people across Asia gathered to celebrate the Lunar New Year with their families. I was one of them and took a flight back to my hometown Nanjing. Airports were jam packed for days with air travel expected to exceed 19 million trips." [00:30]

This surge in air travel signifies a robust comeback after seven years of challenges, positioning Chinese airlines as potential leaders in emerging from China's deflationary pressures.

Factors Driving the Turnaround

An unnamed analyst provides deeper insights into the recovery dynamics:

"Since 2018, Chinese airlines have experienced demand hits from the trade tension, currency depreciation, COVID-19, and the post-COVID macro headwinds." [01:04]

With the lifting of border restrictions two years prior, there's been a strong rebound in air travel demand. Key factors contributing to this turnaround include:

• Excess Capacity Reduction: The industry has managed to absorb excess capacity, leading to tighter supply conditions.
• Aircraft Deliveries: Slower deliveries of new aircraft have limited supply, enhancing airlines' ability to operate near full capacity.
• Passenger Load Factors: Projected to strengthen further, increasing airlines' pricing power within the next 6 to 12 months.

The analyst emphasizes the scale of the recovery:

"In a global context, Chinese airlines industry handled around 700 million passengers in 2024, 8% of global air passengers. But that 700 million passengers only account for half of China's population." [01:45]

Comparison with Global Peers

Despite handling a substantial number of passengers, Chinese airlines have historically lagged behind their global counterparts in terms of earnings and valuations. However, a positive shift is underway:

"Chinese airlines have just reached breakeven in the past year. While many of their global peers have already generated robust profits." [02:10]

The analyst draws parallels with the US airline industry's recovery:

"The August 2024 turnaround in US airlines offers several key takeaways for China... share prices moved up quickly once the turning point was reached and the valuation expanded ahead of earnings recovery." [03:00]

Key insights include:

• Profitability Milestones: The major Chinese airlines reached breakeven in 2024, with profits expected to double by 2026.
• Growth Potential: Peak cycle earnings could double again by 2027-2028, suggesting substantial share price appreciation.

Future Outlook

The episode underscores a promising trajectory for Chinese airlines:

"We think Chinese airlines have a longer runway for stronger earnings growth and share price performance than global peers." [03:30]

With strengthened passenger load factors and a positive demand outlook, the industry is poised for significant earnings growth. The analyst projects:

"Chinese big three airlines reached breakeven in 2024, making a small profit in 2025 and that profit will double in 2026." [03:45]

This optimistic forecast positions Chinese airlines as a prime investment opportunity.

Key Takeaways

• Rebound Momentum: Chinese airlines are experiencing a robust recovery post-pandemic, supported by increased demand and reduced excess capacity.
• Global Comparison: Unlike their global peers who have already achieved strong profitability, Chinese airlines are on the cusp of significant earnings growth.
• Investment Opportunity: The expected doubling of profits and share prices presents a once-in-a-decade investment opportunity.
• Sales and Capacity Dynamics: Limited aircraft deliveries and high passenger load factors enhance pricing power and profitability.

Conclusion

Chen Leifan wraps up the episode by reiterating the transformative phase Chinese airlines are undergoing:

"With strengthened passenger load factors and a positive demand outlook coupled with significant potential for earnings growth, this industry looks ready for takeoff." [04:08]

This episode of "Thoughts on the Market" offers valuable insights into the resurgence of Chinese airlines, highlighting their potential to outperform global peers and serve as a lucrative investment avenue amidst China's broader economic recovery.

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Note: This summary excludes non-content sections such as advertisements, intros, outros, and legal disclaimers to focus solely on the substantive discussions and analyses presented in the episode.

Transcript

[Chen Leifan]

Welcome to Swords on the Market. I'm Chen Leifan, Morgan Stanley's Hong Kong China Transportation Analyst. Chinese airlines are at a once in a decade inflection point and today I'll break down the elements of this turnaround story. It's Thursday, February 6th at 10am in Hong Kong. Last week, hundreds of millions of people across Asia gathered to celebrate the Lunar New Year with their families. I was one of them and took a flight back to my hometown Nanjing. Airports were jam packed for days with air travel expected to exceed 19 million trips. It's all indicative of Chinese airlines making a comeback after a seven year run of underperformance. In fact, we believe airlines will be one of the first industries to emerge from China's deflationary pressure this year, and this has implications for the country's broader economy.

[Unnamed Analyst]

Although Covid impacted airlines globally, other regions have since recovered. In China, the earnings recovery is just beginning. Since 2018, Chinese airlines have experienced demand hits from the trade tension, currency depreciation, COVID 19 and the post Covid macro headwinds. It's been two years since Chinese borders lifted restrictions and air travelers are returning in force. Excess capacity has now been digested, slower deliveries of aircrafts continue to limit supply and it is more difficult for airlines to get new aircraft and increase their available seats. Passenger load factors will continue to strengthen this year, which means the airlines are running close to full capacity. This will increase airlines pricing power within the next six to 12 months. Feeding through to earnings if we put that in a global context, Chinese airlines industry handled around 700 million passengers in 2024, 8% of global air passengers. But that 700 million passengers only account for half of China's population. In the US Air passenger numbers can be three times its population. Chinese airlines have just reached breakeven in the past year. While many of their global peers have already generated robust profits. Chinese airlines earnings and valuation have lacked global peers in both absolute and relative terms. But now with a turnaround coming into view, Chinese airlines have a longer Runway for stronger earnings growth and share price performance than global peers. What's more, the August 2024 turnaround in US airlines offers several key takeaways for China. US airlines share prices recovered last year following a long period of underperformance Post Covid. The wait before the inflection was long, but share prices moved up quickly once the turning point was reached and the valuation expanded ahead of earnings recovery. Big US Airlines outperformed smaller players during the most recent rally. We think all these are relevant to the Chinese airlines story if we look at earnings, Chinese big three airlines reached breakeven in 2024, making a small profit in 2025 and that profit will double in 2026. But that's not yet the peak of the cycle. Peak cycle earnings could again double the 2026 level probably in 2027-2028. That's the reason why we think Chinese airlines are on the path to doubling share prices. To sum up, Chinese airlines represent a once in a decade opportunity for investors. With strengthened passenger load factors and a positive demand outlook coupled with significant potential for earnings growth, this industry looks ready for takeoff.

[Chen Leifan]

Thanks for listening. If you enjoyed the show, please leave us a review wherever you listen and share swords on the market with a friend or colleague today. For those who celebrate.

[Legal Disclaimer Speaker]

The preceding content is informational only and based on information available when created. It is not an offer or solicitation, nor is it tax or legal advice. It does not consider your financial circumstances and objectives and may not be suitable for.