Have Markets Hit Peak Optimism?

Summary

Summary of "Have Markets Hit Peak Optimism?" – Morgan Stanley's Thoughts on the Market

Podcast Information:

• Title: Thoughts on the Market
• Host/Author: Morgan Stanley
• Episode Title: Have Markets Hit Peak Optimism?
• Release Date: January 24, 2025
• Description: Short, thoughtful, and regular takes on recent events in the markets from a variety of perspectives and voices within Morgan Stanley.

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Introduction

In the episode titled "Have Markets Hit Peak Optimism?", Morgan Stanley’s Andrew Sheats, Head of Corporate Credit Research, delves into the current sentiment within the financial markets. Released on January 24, 2025, this episode explores whether the prevailing optimism in the markets has reached its zenith and examines the indicators that might suggest a shift is imminent.

Understanding Market Optimism

Andrew Sheats begins by defining market optimism and its significance in the investment landscape. He emphasizes that a fundamental principle in investing, particularly in credit markets, is to monitor and identify excessive optimism.

"A central tenet of investing, including credit investing, is to be on the lookout for excessive optimism."
(00:45)

Sheats explains that the apex of market optimism is typically reflected in the highest market prices, driven by investors’ strong belief in sustained positive performance. Conversely, market bottoms occur when investor sentiment is at its lowest, presenting buying opportunities.

Challenges in Measuring Optimism

Sheats highlights the complexities involved in gauging peak optimism in real-time:

"Identifying peak optimism in real time is tricky. It's tricky because there's no generally agreed definition. And it's tricky because sometimes things just are good."
(01:15)

He notes that while investor enthusiasm can sometimes be supported by genuine growth, distinguishing between justified optimism and an overinflated market sentiment remains a significant challenge.

Current Market Indicators

The discussion shifts to various indicators that signal elevated market optimism:

1. US Equity Market Performance:

   • The US equity market has surged by over 50% in the past two years.
   • Equity valuations are currently high, both in absolute terms and relative to bond markets.

2. Credit Risk Premiums:

   • Credit risk premiums are near their lowest levels in two decades.

3. Speculative Investor Activity:

   • There is a noticeable increase in speculative trading, suggesting heightened risk-taking.

Sheats poses a critical question:

"Have we finally hit peak optimism, a level from which we can go no further?"
(02:10)

Investor vs. Corporate Optimism

Addressing the central question, Sheats distinguishes between investor and corporate optimism:

"While we think investor optimism is elevated, corporate optimism is not."
(02:35)

He argues that, despite the high levels of investor enthusiasm, corporations themselves do not exhibit the same level of confidence. This is significant because corporate behavior, particularly in terms of investment and acquisitions, plays a vital role in sustaining economic growth.

Corporate Confidence Indicators

Sheats introduces two key metrics to assess corporate confidence:

1. Merger and Acquisition (M&A) Activity:

   • M&A activity serves as a proxy for corporate confidence; acquiring another company is inherently risky and reflects management's positive outlook.
   • Although M&A volumes increased by approximately 25% last year, they remain below historical averages.
   • Sheats notes, "It would be really unusual for a major market cycle to end without this sort of activity being above trend."
     (03:05)

2. Riskiness of New Borrowing:

   • Corporate borrowing patterns indicate confidence levels. Traditionally, businesses take on more debt when they are optimistic about future prospects.
   • Over the past three years, the issuance of low-rated debt in the US has been declining.
   • Similarly, the issuance of high-risk corporate debt has significantly decreased from the 2017-2022 averages.
   • Sheats points out, "These are not the type of trends you'd expect with excessive corporate optimism."
     (03:40)

Factors Influencing Corporate Confidence

Sheats acknowledges uncertainties that may be dampening corporate optimism:

• Tariffs and Policy Changes:

  • Tariffs and policies introduced by the new US Administration could be restraining corporate confidence.

• Regulatory Environment:

  • Despite these uncertainties, the low baseline of corporate confidence combined with potential deregulatory measures suggests room for improvement.

Outlook for 2025

Looking ahead, Sheats remains optimistic about the trajectory of corporate confidence:

"We think corporate confidence will pick up, it is going to take some time."
(04:10)

He anticipates an increase in both M&A activity and corporate borrowing as indicators of rising confidence. This anticipated uptrend is expected to continue throughout 2025.

Risks and Cautions

While an increase in corporate activity typically signals positive growth, Sheats also warns of potential risks:

"Such an increase usually does present greater risks down the line, but for now we think it's too early to position for these more negative consequences of increasing corporate aggression."
(04:45)

He advises caution, suggesting that although current indicators are positive, the full impact of heightened corporate activity may manifest later, warranting careful monitoring.

Conclusion

Andrew Sheats concludes that, contrary to fears of having reached peak market optimism, corporate confidence remains subdued. The divergence between investor and corporate sentiment suggests that excessive optimism has not yet been realized. With corporate indicators poised for improvement, there remains room for continued positive momentum in the markets. However, investors should remain vigilant of the underlying risks that accompany increasing corporate aggressiveness.

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Notable Quotes:

• "A central tenet of investing, including credit investing, is to be on the lookout for excessive optimism."
  (00:45)

• "Identifying peak optimism in real time is tricky. It's tricky because there's no generally agreed definition. And it's tricky because sometimes things just are good."
  (01:15)

• "Have we finally hit peak optimism, a level from which we can go no further?"
  (02:10)

• "While we think investor optimism is elevated, corporate optimism is not."
  (02:35)

• "It would be really unusual for a major market cycle to end without this sort of activity being above trend."
  (03:05)

• "These are not the type of trends you'd expect with excessive corporate optimism."
  (03:40)

• "We think corporate confidence will pick up, it is going to take some time."
  (04:10)

• "Such an increase usually does present greater risks down the line, but for now we think it's too early to position for these more negative consequences of increasing corporate aggression."
  (04:45)

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This detailed summary encapsulates the key discussions and insights presented by Andrew Sheats in the episode, providing listeners and non-listeners alike with a comprehensive understanding of the current state of market optimism and the underlying factors influencing it.

Transcript

[A]

Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I'm Andrew Sheats, head of corporate credit research at Morgan Stanley. Today I'm going to talk about optimism, how we measure it, whether it's overly excessive and what lies ahead. It's Friday, January 24th at 2pm in London. A central tenet of investing, including credit investing, is to be on the lookout for excessive optimism. By definition, the highest prices in a market cycle will happen when people are the most convinced that only great things lie ahead. The lowest prices, when you love to buy, happen when investors have given up all hope. But identifying peak optimism in real time is tricky. It's tricky because there's no generally agreed definition. And it's tricky because sometimes things just are good. Investors have been excited about the US Technology sector for more than a decade now, and yet this sector has managed to deliver extraordinary profit growth over this time and extraordinarily good returns. Yet this debate does feel relevant. The US equity market has soared over 50% in the last two years. Equity valuations are historically high, both outright and relative to bonds. Credit risk Premiums are near 20 year lows. Speculative investor activity is increasing. And so have we finally hit peak optimism, a level from which we can go no further? Our answer, for better or worse, is no. While we think investor optimism is elevated, corporate optimism is not. And corporations are really important in this debate, enjoying enormous financial resources that can invest in the economy or other companies. While we do think corporate confidence will pick up, it is going to take some time. One of our favorite measures of corporate confidence is merger and acquisition activity. But buying another company is one of the riskiest things that management can do, making it a great proxy for underlying corporate confidence. Volumes of this type of activity rose about 25% last year, but they're still well below historical averages and it would be really unusual for a major market cycle to end without this sort of activity being above trend. Another metric is the riskiness of new borrowing. Taking on new debt is another measure of corporate confidence, as you generally do something like this when you feel good about the future and your ability to pay that debt debt off. But for the last three years, the volume of low rated debt in the US market has actually been shrinking, while the issuance of the riskiest grades of corporate borrowing is also down significantly from the 2017-2022 average. Again, these are not the type of trends you'd expect with excessive corporate optimism. Uncertainty is around. Tariffs or the policies from the new US Administration could still hold corporate confidence back, but the low starting point for corporate confidence combined with what we expect to be a deregulatory push mean we think it's more likely that corporate activity and aggressiveness have room to rise, and that this continues throughout 2025. Such an increase usually does present greater risks down the line, but for now we think it's too early to position for these more negative consequences of increasing corporate aggression. Thanks for listening. If you enjoyed the show. Thanks. Leave us a review wherever you listen and share thoughts on the market with a friend or colleague today.

[B]

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