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Betsy welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I'm Betsy Grasic, Morgan Stanley's global head of banks and diversified finance research. Today we are looking out to 2030 to estimate what we expect the impact of digital assets could be on global wholesale banking. It's Monday, May 18th at 3:30pm in New York. We live in a world where money can move instantly. A payment or transfer can happen in a matter of minutes if not seconds in real time. But much of the financial system runs on older networks for moving cash and securities. These networks are what the industry calls Rails. We expect clients will be looking for faster settlement across global banking services, driving the industry to adopt digital asset rails over the next decade. We see three key drivers pushing this today. Number one, market support is out there for fintechs which is increasing their competitiveness. Number two, global legislation and regulation is clarifying requirements for enabling digital asset services. Led by the US with the Genius act in 2025 and with the forward motion being made on the Clarity act in 2026. The third driver of digital asset transformation is that exchanges are extending hours and moving towards offering 24. 7 capabilities over the next several years. Now we expect digital assets will have two major impacts on global wholesale banks. First, as banks lean into servicing crypto assets, we see the potential for an additional 1.5 to $8 billion in revenues in 2030, which adds up to 1% to our global wholesale bank's revenue forecast of 770 billion in 2030. Second, impact on global wholesale banks is a risk. There is risk when money is in motion and money could be set in motion as clients migrate revenues from traditional asset rails to digital asset Rails. We anticipate this could impact $21 billion to $82 billion of revenues in 2030, primarily in cross border payments, liquidity management, collateral management businesses. Now while this transformation is likely to impact the industry over the next decade as more services go digital, we expect several catalysts in the second half will focus investor attention on these changes. Now what are those catalysts? Number one, Clarity act. The Clarity act passing Congress would open up the door for wholesale banks to service crypto asset class more holistically. Second catalyst, the dtcc, which is a major infrastructure player for securities markets in the US The DTCC will be adding tokenized products in the fall of 2026. And then lastly NASDAQ and NYSE are planning to extend trading hours on December 6, 2026 to 23 hours by five days a week. Now, what should investors make of all of this? Number one, critical to understand how the investments that you have today are positioned for this transformation? Are managements protecting their strengths by developing capabilities for an ecosystem increasingly run on digital rails? Thanks for listening. If you enjoy the show, please leave us a review wherever you listen and share thoughts on the market with a friend or colleague today.
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