How Your Body Data Could Reshape Sectors - Thoughts on the Market

Summary4 min read

Podcast Summary: Thoughts on the Market

Episode: How Your Body Data Could Reshape Sectors

Host: Erin Wright, US Healthcare Services Analyst, Morgan Stanley
Release Date: May 12, 2026

Episode Overview

This episode explores the transformative rise of self-directed health monitoring—where individuals leverage direct-access lab tests and wearables to detect health risks earlier and make proactive changes. Erin Wright discusses how this shift could reshape not just healthcare, but a broad swath of consumer sectors, all while examining investment implications, potential cost savings, and future challenges.

Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. From Reactive to Proactive Healthcare

Main Theme (00:10):
- Healthcare is shifting towards prevention, with diagnostics and daily monitoring moving outside clinical settings.
- Consumers increasingly access lab tests and use wearables to manage health risks before symptoms arise.
“A blood test ordered from your phone. A wearable that tracks your sleep or nudges you to move, recover, hydrate or rethink last night’s dinner. Preventative health is moving out of the clinic and into everyday life, and that shift is becoming an investable theme.”
— Erin Wright (00:13)

2. Economic & Market Impact

Chronic Disease Spending (00:48):
- The US spends roughly $3.4 trillion annually on chronic disease, with $1.4 trillion in 2024 tied to preventable diseases.
- Earlier detection and behavior change could help control these escalating costs.
Potential Savings (01:15):
- Preventative testing could help avoid $200–800 billion in US healthcare spending by 2050, assuming 10–30% reduction in preventable disease-related costs.

3. Growth of Direct-to-Consumer Lab Testing

Market Expansion (01:35):
- The direct-to-consumer (DTC) lab testing market has surpassed $4 billion, more than doubling since 2021.
- “Our alphawise survey found that about 34% of respondents completed a voluntary wellness lab test in the past three years...The most common test was a general health profile used by about 45% of recent testers.” (01:55)

4. Surge in Wearable Adoption & Behavior Change

Adoption Rates (02:14):
- 41% of survey participants use wearables/fitness devices; 22% are interested in obtaining one.
Behavioral Impact (02:23):
- 34% of current wearable users regularly change behaviors/decisions based on data from their devices; 52% do so at least sometimes.
“That creates a feedback loop. A wearable might flag poor sleep. A lab test might show elevated glucose. A digital health tool might suggest changes to diet or exercise or follow up care. Over time, prevention starts to feel less like an annual event and more like a daily habit.”
— Erin Wright (02:35)

5. Sector-Wide Implications

For Healthcare (03:00):
- Initial increase in utilization due to more testing/follow-up, but over time leads to better chronic disease management and lower costs.
- Aligns with value-based care—providers and payers rewarded for improved outcomes and lower costs rather than more services.
For Consumer Markets (03:20):
- Health tracking can influence consumer choices, e.g., shift toward lower-sugar, high-protein, and functional food products.
- Fitness sector evolving from pure workouts to offering wellness coaching, recovery, and preventative services.
For Imaging & Diagnostics (03:40):
- Screening is moving toward earlier, more proactive detection, not just diagnostics after symptoms appear.

6. Potential Risks & Challenges Identified

Despite momentum, questions remain about the durability and inclusivity of this trend:
- Out-of-pocket costs
- Privacy concerns
- Inconsistent interpretation of results
- Limits of repeat testing
“Of course, there is some risk that these health tracking and consumer driven diagnostic trends could still prove to be a wellness craze rather than the new normal... but consumers are clearly taking more control of their health and increasingly asking, ‘What can I learn before I get sick?’”
— Erin Wright (04:08)

Notable Quotes & Moments

On Market Growth:

“We see this as a roughly 4 billion US market, which has more than doubled since 2021, and it’s no longer niche.”
— Erin Wright (01:40)
On Consumer Change:

“Prevention starts to feel less like an annual event and more like a daily habit.”
— Erin Wright (02:43)
On Potential Impact:

“Earlier detection could obviously support lower cost of care and better chronic disease management. That also aligns with value-based care where providers and payers are rewarded for better outcomes and lower total costs, not just simply more services.”
— Erin Wright (03:05)

Timestamps for Important Segments

Opening/Main Theme: 00:10–00:48
Economic Impact & Cost Curve: 00:48–01:15
Direct-to-Consumer Testing Data & Market Size: 01:35–02:10
Wearables Adoption & Consumer Behavior: 02:14–02:43
Sector Implications (Healthcare, Consumer, Imaging): 03:00–03:50
Risks and Headwinds: 04:00–04:30
Summary/Closing Reflection: 04:30–04:52

Summary

This episode underscores a profound shift toward consumer-driven, proactive healthcare, empowered by rapidly growing access to both DTC lab testing and wearable technology. As more consumers use personal health data to guide daily decisions, entire industries—from healthcare systems to food and fitness—stand to be reshaped. While challenges remain, the trend now shows real momentum, with significant investment and cost-saving implications for the decades ahead.

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Transcript2 lines

[00:01]
A
Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I'm Erin Wright, Morgan Stanley's US Healthcare Services Analyst. Today, the emergence of the self directed patient and its implications. It's Tuesday, May 12th at 10:00am in New York. A blood test ordered from your phone. A wearable that tracks your sleep or nudges you to move, recover, hydrate or rethink last night's dinner. Preventative health is moving out of the clinic and into everyday life, and that shift is becoming an investable theme. In essence, healthcare is moving from reactive to proactive. Instead of waiting for symptoms, more consumers are using lab tests, wearables, imaging and digital tools to spot some of these risks earlier. And this shift reaches well beyond healthcare. On our estimates, the US spends about 3.4 trillion annually on chronic disease, including lost economic productivity. About 1.4 trillion of 2024 spend was tied to preventable diseases. So the big investment question is can earlier detection and behavior change bend the cost curve? We think expanded preventative testing, screening and monitoring can help avoid roughly 200 billion to 800 billion of US healthcare spend by 2050. That assumes preventative testing reduces preventable disease costs by about 10 to 30%. Based on our analysis, Direct to Consumer lab testing lets people order lab tests directly, often online, without starting with a traditional doctor visit. We see this as a roughly 4 billion US market, which has more than doubled since 2021, and it's no longer niche. Our alphawise survey found that about 34% of respondents completed a voluntary wellness lab test in the past three years. Among users, the average was 3.2 tests, suggesting this is not just a one time behavior. The most common test was a general health profile used by about 45% of recent testers. Wearables are the other part of the story. Our survey found that 41% of respondents currently use a wearable or fitness device, while another 22% are interested in getting one. More importantly, people are acting on the data. 34% of wearable users today regularly change behaviors or decisions based on their device, and 52% even sometimes do so based on our survey. That creates a feedback loop. A wearable might flag poor sleep. A lab test might show elevated glucose. A digital health tool might suggest changes to diet or exercise or follow up care. Over time, prevention starts to feel less like an annual event and more like a daily habit. The sector implications are broad. In healthcare, more testing may initially actually increase utilization as people follow up on results. But over time, earlier detection could obviously support lower cost of care and better chronic disease management. That also aligns with value based care where providers and payers are rewarded for better outcomes and lower total costs, not just simply more services. In consumer sectors, better health tracking could shape food choices, reduce demand for some indulgent categories and support products tied to hydration, lower sugar, protein and functional benefits. Fitness may also benefit as gyms evolve from just workout destinations into broader wellness platforms with recovery and coaching and preventative health services layered in. Imaging is another emerging area as screening shifts from reactive diagnostics towards earlier disease detection. Of course, there is some risk that these health tracking and consumer driven diagnostic trends could still prove to be a wellness craze rather than the new normal out of pocket costs. Privacy concerns, inconsistent interpretations and limited repeat testing are all real issues, but consumers are clearly taking more control of their health and increasingly asking, what can I learn before I get sick? Thanks for listening. If you enjoy the show, please leave us a review wherever you listen and share thoughts on the market with a friend or colleague today.
[04:53]
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