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Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I'm Mike Wilson, Morgan Stanley CIO and chief U.S. equity strategist. Today on the podcast I'll be discussing ongoing transition in the economic recovery from early to mid cycle. It's Monday, August 3rd at 11:30am in New York, so let's get after it. Following on from my podcast the past few weeks, I want to reiterate our key call that the economy and the market are moving from early to mid cycle. That may sound like strategist jargon, but it has very real implications for leadership, positioning and how one should think about the next phase of this bull market. For much of the past year, the market was rewarding early cycle characteristics and behavior. Lower quality, higher beta stocks, and the most explosive earnings revision stories led the way. That made sense. We were coming out of a rolling recession, operating leverage was improving rapidly and and earnings revisions were accelerating off at depressed levels. But as a business cycle matures, the market typically becomes more discerning. It starts to ask a harder question not just who can grow, but who can sustain that growth with stable earnings, strong margins and free cash flow generation? In other words, quality starts to matter again. That's exactly where we are now. The rotation towards quality has begun and I don't view that as a bearish development for the broader market, even if it's bad for some of the former leaders. The S&P 500 is a very high quality large cap index. So while the market may continue to consolidate in the near term, the quality rotation should ultimately support index resilience and help the S&P 500 work its way toward our 8,000 year end target. The big market event last week was the capitulation in the historic momentum unwind. Momentum sold off hard and semiconductors were at the center of it. That shouldn't surprise anyone who has followed our work over the past several months. We've been using the silver stock analog to think about semis and remarkably, the semi index bottomed almost exactly where that analog suggested. That argues for a tradable bounce in semiconductors over the next few weeks. However, the more important point is that semis may struggle to reclaim leadership for the rest of the year. Semis are a classic early cycle group and this is increasingly becoming a mid cycle quality led market. The silver stock analog would support the same conclusion. The provocative way to say it is the AI cycle is not over, but the easy money in the most crowded AI beneficiaries may be. The AI investment cycle still has plenty of Runway, but the market is no longer rewarding capex blindly. It's asking for evidence of return on invested capital, adoption, monetization and operational discipline. Last week's performance gap between Microsoft and Meta was a perfect example. It wasn't random, it was about capex discipline. The market is rewarding more prudent spending and that could translate into a real overhang for the CapEx beneficiaries. And in line with my views from the past several months, this is why I still prefer hyperscalers over semis. With one important caveat. Dispersion within the hyperscalers is rising. The group has already outperformed semis by 30% over the past four weeks and I think it can continue over the next several months. Hyperscalers have resilient core businesses, exposure to the AI application layer, and an underappreciated ability to use AI to reduce operating expenses if needed. They're both enablers and adopters, but the market will no longer treat them all the same. The winners will be the companies that can show return on investment, communicate capex discipline, and preserve earnings quality. This is also why AI adoption is becoming so important. The next leg of the story is not just about who builds the infrastructure, it's about who can use it more effectively. Our work shows that companies where AI is material to the investment thesis and pricing power is neutral to strong are already seeing margin expectations improve. Relative net margins for that group have expanded by 50 basis points in just three months and they now sit 400 basis points above the broader market. That's not hype, that's operating leverage with a new engine. The Fed is the other major piece of the puzzle. Chair Warsh stayed on hold last week, but he remains tight lipped about his reaction function. Markets are still adjusting to a Fed that wants to rely less on forward guidance and more on unfiltered market signals. I think that's a healthy development over the longer term, but but transitions are rarely smooth. The biggest risk to this consolidation turning into a correction is that the 10 year yield rises above 5%. Such a rise could weigh on equity multiples and force the Fed to either change back to its old ways of guiding the markets or provide more liquidity to calm rate markets. Bottom line, the bull market is not over, but it is changing as we move from early to mid cycle. In this recovery, the equity market wants higher quality. Semis may bounce, but they are unlikely to be the leader again. Meanwhile, hyperscalers will likely continue to trade better with the best ones exhibiting more capital discipline. More importantly, AI adoption is moving from promise to measurable margin benefit. This is what mid cycle looks like. Less forgiving, more discerning, but still constructive for investors who follow the rotation rather than fight it. Thanks for tuning in. I hope you found it informative and useful. Let us know what you think by leaving us a review, and if you find thoughts on the market worthwhile, tell a friend or colleague to try it out.
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