Tariff Fallout: Where Do Markets Go From Here?

Summary

Podcast Summary: "Tariff Fallout: Where Do Markets Go From Here?"

Podcast Information:

• Title: Thoughts on the Market
• Host: Michael Zesas, Morgan Stanley's Global Head of Fixed Income Research and Public Policy Strategy
• Episode Title: Tariff Fallout: Where Do Markets Go From Here?
• Release Date: April 4, 2025

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Introduction

In the April 4, 2025 episode of Thoughts on the Market, host Michael Zesas delves into the significant ramifications of the recent tariff increases announced by President Trump. Zesas provides a comprehensive analysis of how these tariffs are reshaping the economic landscape, impacting various market sectors, and influencing investor strategies.

Recent Tariff Increases: Context and Anticipation

Michael Zesas begins by contextualizing the recent tariff hikes, highlighting them as a continuation of the Trump administration's long-anticipated policy shift aimed at reducing the U.S. goods trade deficit.

Zesas (00:00): "We've long anticipated that higher tariffs on a broad range of imports would be a fixture of US policy and the second Trump term."

Zesas emphasizes that while the objectives of these tariffs have been debated, their economic costs were expected to necessitate a strategic pivot in investment preferences, particularly favoring fixed income over equities sensitive to economic fluctuations.

Immediate Market Reactions

The host addresses the immediate economic impact of the tariff increases, noting that the implementation has been more rapid and severe than initially projected by Morgan Stanley's research team.

Zesas (00:35): "Tariffs on imports from China are approaching 60%, a level we didn't anticipate would be reached until 2026."

This surge brings the U.S. effective tariff rate from 3% at the start of the year to approximately 22%, significantly higher than expected. Zesas underscores that the breadth of these tariffs extends beyond specific products to a wide range of imports, exacerbating the economic strain.

Future Outlook and Negotiations

Looking ahead, Zesas discusses the potential for negotiations to mitigate some of the tariff burdens, particularly with traditional U.S. allies such as Japan and European nations.

Zesas (01:15): "We do think there's a possibility that negotiation will lower some of these tariffs, particularly for traditional US Allies like Japan and Europe, giving some relief to markets and the economic outlook."

However, he cautions that the timeline for such negotiations remains uncertain, as it is unclear what concessions the U.S. will accept from its trading partners. Even with successful negotiations, tariff levels are likely to remain higher than initially forecasted.

Impact on Equities and Fixed Income

Zesas elaborates on how these tariff changes influence investment strategies, particularly the preference for fixed income over stocks vulnerable to economic downturns.

Zesas (02:00): "For investors, we think that means there's more room to go for markets to price in a weaker U.S. growth outlook in U.S. equities."

He suggests that while the immediate impacts of higher tariffs might be reflected in the markets, the secondary effects—such as diminished consumer and corporate confidence—could exert further downward pressure on indices like the S&P 500, potentially pushing it below 5,000.

Sector-Specific Impacts

Delving into sector-specific repercussions, Zesas identifies the consumer retail sector as particularly vulnerable due to its reliance on imported goods.

Zesas (02:40): "Weakness has been and may continue to be more acute in key sectors where tariff costs are substantial and may not be able to be passed on in price, such as the consumer retail sector."

These companies are facing increased costs from overseas imports, which may not be transferable to consumers through price hikes, thereby squeezing profit margins and affecting stock performance.

Potential Positive Catalysts

Despite the challenges, Zesas identifies potential positive developments that could serve as market catalysts. These include signs that a recession may be priced into the market and favorable US policy responses.

Zesas (02:55): "If we get to a point where a recession is more clearly in the price, then US Policy catalysts might help the stock market."

Potential catalysts include negotiations leading to smaller tariff increases and fiscal policy measures such as unexpected tax cuts, which could bolster investor confidence and stabilize markets.

Conclusion

Michael Zesas concludes the episode by highlighting the importance of monitoring market valuations and policy developments. The interplay between ongoing tariff negotiations and potential fiscal interventions will be crucial in determining the future trajectory of the markets amidst the tariff fallout.

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This episode of Thoughts on the Market provides a nuanced exploration of the economic implications stemming from the Trump administration's tariff policies. Michael Zesas offers valuable insights into how these tariffs are reshaping investment landscapes, affecting various market sectors, and influencing future economic outlooks. Investors and market enthusiasts are encouraged to consider these dynamics when evaluating their strategies in the current economic climate.

Transcript

[A]

Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I'm Michael Zesas, Morgan Stanley's global head of fixed income research and public policy strategy. Today we'll be talking about the market impacts of the recently announced tariff increases. It's Friday, April 4th at 1pm in New York. This week, as planned, President Trump unveiled tariff increases. These reciprocal tariffs were hiked with the stated goal of reducing the U.S. s goods trade deficit with other countries. We've long anticipated that higher tariffs on a broad range of imports would be a fixture of US Policy and the second Trump term, and that whatever you thought of the goals tariffs were driving towards, their enactment would come at an economic cost along the way. That cost is what helped drive our team's preference for fixed income over more economically sensitive equities. But this week's announcement underscored that we actually underestimated the speed and severity of implementation. Following this week's reciprocal tariff announcement, tariffs on imports from China are approaching 60%, a level we didn't anticipate would be reached until 2026. And while we expected a number of product specific tariffs would be levied, we didn't anticipate the broad based import tariffs announced this week. All totaled, the US effective tariff rate is now around 22%, having started the year at 3%. So what's next? Our colleagues across Morgan Stanley research have detailed their expected impacts across equity sectors and asset classes, and here are some key takeaways to keep in mind. First, we do think there's a possibility that negotiation will lower some of these tariffs, particularly for traditional US Allies like Japan and Europe, giving some relief to markets and the economic outlook. However, successful negotiation may not arrive quickly, as it's not yet clear what the US Would deem sufficient concessions from its trading partners. Lower tariff levels and higher asset purchases might be part of the mix, but we're still in discovery mode on this. And even if tariff reductions succeed, it's still likely that tariff levels would be meaningfully higher than previously anticipated. So for investors, we think that means there's more room to go for markets to price in a weaker U.S. growth outlook in U.S. equities. For example, our strategists argue that first order impacts of higher tariffs may be mostly priced in at this point, but second order effects, such as knock on effects of further hits to consumer and corporate confidence, could push the S&P 500 below the 5,000 level in credit markets. Weakness has been and may continue to be more acute in key sectors where tariff costs are substantial and may not be able to be passed on in price, such as the consumer retail sector. These are companies whose costs are being driven by overseas imports. So what happens from here? Are there positive catalysts to watch for? It's going to depend on market valuations. If we get to a point where a recession is more clearly in the price, then US Policy catalysts might help the stock market. That could include negotiations that result in smaller tariff increases than those just announced, or a fiscal policy response such as bigger than anticipated tax cuts. Thanks for listening. If you enjoy the show, please leave us a review wherever you listen and share thoughts on the market with a friend or colleague today.

[B]

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