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Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I'm Andrew Sheats, head of Corporate Credit Research at Morgan Stanley. Today we're going to discuss whether the worst is over for markets or whether it's just the eye of the storm. It's Friday, May 8th at 2pm in London. After extreme recent volatility, markets have bounced back, generally unwinding their losses since April 2nd. So was that it? The shock of tariff announcements and positioning adjustments may have now passed through, but the impact on the real economy is still to come. In meteorological terms, we think this may be just the eye of the storm. There are several specific bouts of potentially bad weather that we're looking at, driven by tariffs that may be about to pass through. First is the Federal Reserve. Our economists still see no cuts from the Fed this year as tariffs keep inflation elevated on our forecast. The markets, in contrast, are expecting more action. A scenario where credit markets face both weaker growth and a lack of central bank support remains one of our top concerns. Second is the data. So far in 2025, measures of consumer and company expectations have generally been weak, while readings of activity have tended to be stronger. Now we think there's a good historical case that it's the expectations that tend to leave and are thus concerned that that actual activity could start to soften as it starts to be measured in a post tariff period. To this end, we're keenly watching measures like shipping and trucking activity which could give us a better picture of the real impact. Again, a core driver of our concern, despite the economic data holding up so far, is that the impact of tariffs usually takes more time. As our economists note, tariffs historically have pushed up prices after a couple of months and push down growth after a couple of quarters. In short, the full storm of that impact may be yet to pass through. That thinking also lies behind our inflation views. Those more optimistic on inflation and thus expecting more interest rate cuts from the Fed note that the latest core inflation readings were generally fine. But in contrast, our economists remain more concerned that tariff price impacts simply haven't yet arrived in the official data, noting little change in the core inflation readings for things like goods that in theory should see the largest tariff impact. This, in our view, suggests that the impact on the underlying numbers that the Fed is looking at is still to come. The initial surprise of the US tariff announcements is behind us. Things feel calmer and the recent economic data has been relatively resilient. One scenario is this simply speaks to how resilient the US economy is. But another explanation is that there's a gap between the surprise of those tariffs and their ultimate economic impact. And our concern remains that those impacts are real, driving forecasts at Morgan Stanley for weaker growth, higher inflation and later interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve than the market consensus. With credit spreads below average, we'd recommend patience. Those forecasts at these spreads could still drive turbulence. Thank you as always for your time. If you find thoughts on the market useful, let us know by leaving a review wherever you listen and also tell a friend or colleague about us today.
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