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- [00:01]
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Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I'm Ron camden, head of US REITs and commercial real Estate Research.
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And I'm Hank Dulisandre, Managing Director on Morgan Stanley's real estate investing team and Vice Chairman of Private Credit.
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Today, a part of real estate that's changing fast and drawing fresh attention from investors. Net Lease Investing It's Friday, May 8th at 10am in New York. You might not think you invest in net leases, but there's a good chance you do, especially if you have money in a pension fund or another income generating vehicle. Net leases are the kinds of long term lease assets that can help generate steady, predictable income. They are no longer a sleepy corner of the real estate market. In fact, they're changing in some really interesting ways. So Hank, for listeners who know the term but may not know the structure, what exactly is net lease investing and why does it tend to come up more often when markets get more uncertain?
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At a high level, net lease investing is typically associated with long term leases that can offer durable income streams, typically growing streams, which is why it's often seen as a more defensive part of real estate investing. We see that when investors are thinking more carefully about about geopolitical risks, market volatility or say portfolio resilience. This durable cash flow derived from mission critical assets and long lease durations with fixed annual rent bumps can become especially attractive to investors. Also, with higher inflation likely, net leases are generally insulated from increases in expenses given these are the responsibility of tenants. But what's important today is the net lease is broader than many people realize, both in terms of the property types involved and the range of investors participating in the space.
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Let's stay on that idea of a broader market for a moment because one of the biggest shifts has been the growing role of private capital in the space. What are you seeing there and why does it matter?
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Well, listen Ron, there's no question the role of private capital has grown substantially, including through joint ventures and public real estate vehicles. That matters because it tells you that the sector is attracting a wider range of investors than it has in the past, such as pension funds, insurance companies, sovereign wealth funds and retail. Investors are increasingly investing either through traditional locked up funds or through through semi liquid funds. But it can also change the competitive landscape and can influence how capital gets allocated across the opportunity set. Thus, one's approach going forward from an analysis perspective will need to evolve more broadly. It's a sign that net lease is being viewed as highly relevant in today's market, not just as a legacy category within real estate and that's an important
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distinction that you make right there because not all investors are approaching these assets the same way. So when private capital comes into the space, what separates their underwriting approach from another? And we hear all the time about private credit, how does that play into this?
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Well, Ron, you know, as we discussed previously, the competitive landscape is changing and therefore underwriting is absolutely critical in this part of the cycle. And so we believe underwriting both tenant credit, of course, is very important. But we equally analyze the real estate underwriting because we believe that real estate can be a real differentiator over time, both in terms of returns and risk profile. We think that strong real estate underwriting with strong tenant credit underwriting both enhances returns over time and reduces risk. So therefore, that matters a lot. We also believe that by focusing equally on the real estate underwriting, you get a fuller picture of the risk and value, especially as Net Lease expands into newer property types. It's an easy nuance to miss, but we believe this distinction is becoming much more important differentiator in how investors assess opportunities in the sector today. And I believe that the most successful managers will do a good job underwriting both tenant credit and real estate. So, Ron, for a long time, many investors thought of Net Lease primarily as a retail story. How much has that changed?
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Well, that's changed quite a bit. If I take you back 20 to 30 years ago, when you thought of Net Lease, you thought of a convenience store that's 5 to 10,000 square feet. But today that opportunity has expanded well beyond retail. And there's much more attention now on industrial assets and even increasing discussions around areas like data centers. I'll give you an example. Realty Income made its entry into the data center vertical in November 2023 with a $200 million bill to suit JV. That shift matters because it shows Net Lease evolving alongside where demand and capital are moving. It also means the sector is becoming more connected to larger structural trends in the economy rather than being viewed through one traditional lens. At the same time, as the mix broadens, investors have to be selective because not every new category will have the same long term profile that we're used to. So as investors look at some of these newer areas, where do you see the best opportunities, Hank? And where would you be more cautious?
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So, first opportunities. The industrial segment is clearly become a major area of focus. This sector benefits from growing E commerce penetration fueled by AI reshoring of manufacturing and increased defense spending. The ability to acquire mission critical distribution centers in top tier logistics markets or advanced manufacturing assets in innovation clusters is particularly appealing in today's macro backdrop. Another area that we find very compelling is medical outpatient buildings where the aging demographics can support long term demand. So we have great conviction on both of those. Now turning to area where we're more cautious, there's been a lot of attention on data centers as you've previously mentioned, but that's an area where investors really need to think carefully about long term durability. Questions around obsolescence, technological change, and whether certain assets fit a true buy and hold strategy are very relevant and need to be considered carefully by investors. So maybe to sum up, the opportunity set is definitely broadening, but selectivity in terms of location, asset type and asset specifications remain essential. So Ron, the idea of linking property types back to long term trends feels especially important right now. How do you connect this conversation to the key secular themes Morgan Stanley Research is tracking this year? AI and tech diffusion, the future of energy, the multipolar world, and societal impacts. And can you offer a few examples?
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There's a couple ways that netlease connects to these broader themes. The first, which is probably the most obvious, is technology diffusion in the future of Energy comes through in areas such as data centers, and that's been a key focus for public investors. When you think about societal change, that's relevant for sectors tied to demographics like medical outpatient buildings, where people go get different services. Multipolar world theme matters because de globalization and geopolitical fragmentation are influencing how investors think about resilience, location and portfolio construction, which is driving incremental demand for industrial real estate linked to supply chain shifts and defense spending. So this is no longer just a sector evolving on its own, it's becoming more closely tied to these macro issues shaping investment decisions more broadly. And once you widen the lens to that macro backdrop, the conversation naturally becomes more global. In fact, we saw Realty income now generates 19% of rents across non European countries with more than $15 billion invested since 2019. Given this, Hank, how should investors think about net lease and adjacent opportunities outside
- [08:51]
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of the US the global angle is clearly becoming more relevant. There's growing interest in Europe and the UK and and one area that comes to mind in this context is retail parks, where rents have reset, yields are wider, and tenant resilience has improved. Thinking more broadly, international markets can give investors a wider set of ways to think about real estate opportunities tied to these same themes that we've discussed and add to diversification as macro drivers continue to diverge and geopolitical risks remain elevated even when structures or sector exposures differ from the us which undoubtedly they will. The bigger point is that investors are increasingly evaluating opportunities through a global lens.
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So if we pull all this together, what may look like a simple income oriented category is actually becoming much more nuanced as we wrap up. Hank, what's the main message you want investors to take away about Net Lease today?
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I believe the main takeaway is that Net Lease remains relevant because of its defensive qualities and predictable contractual cash flows derived from long term leases. But the story is becoming more nuanced, requiring a granular focus on the credit and importantly the underlying real estate. With real estate values down 20 to 25% from peak levels, replacement costs elevated, which is keeping supply muted and Net lease cap rates wide relative to the last 10 years, this is a very attractive entry point for investors. Private capital is playing a bigger role. No question the asset mix is shifting beyond retail towards areas like industrial. Investors are actively debating the long term role of newer categories such as advanced manufacturing and data centers. There are selective opportunities to think more globally, which is exciting.
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Great, that's very helpful. Hank, thanks for taking the time to talk.
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Great speaking with you Ron, and thanks for listening.
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