Transcript
A (0:00)
Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I'm Michael Zezas, global head of Fixed Income Research and Public Policy Strategy.
B (0:06)
And I'm Ariana Salvatore, U.S. public policy strategist.
A (0:09)
Today we're talking about the outlook for U.S. trade policy. It's Wednesday, July 2, at 10am in New York. We have a big week ahead as next Wednesday marks the expiration of the 90 day pause on reciprocal tariffs. Arianna, what's the setup?
B (0:26)
So this is a really key inflection point. That pause that you mentioned was initiated back on April 9, and unless it's extended, we could see a reimposition of tariffs on several of our major trading partners. Our base case is that the administration, broadly speaking, tries to kick the can down the road, meaning that it extends the pause for most countries. Though the reality might be closer to a few countries seeing their rates go up while others announce bilateral framework deals between now and next week. But before we get into the key assumptions underlying our base case, let's talk about the bigger picture. Michael, what do we think the administration is actually trying to accomplish here?
A (1:03)
So when it comes to defining their objectives, we think multiple things can be true at the same time. So the administration's talked about the virtue of tariffs as a negotiating tactic. They've also floated the idea of a tiered framework for global trading partners. Think of it as a ranking system based on trade deficits, non tariff barriers, VAT levels, and any other characteristics that they think are important for the bilateral trade relationship. A lot of this is similar to the rhetoric we saw ahead of the April 2nd Liberation Day tariffs.
B (1:34)
Right. And around that time we started hearing about the potential, at least for bilateral trade deals. But have we seen any real progress in that area?
A (1:42)
Not much, at least not publicly, aside from the UK Framework Agreement. And here's an important detail. 3. Three of our four largest trading partners aren't even scoped for higher rates next week. Mexico and Canada were never subject to the reciprocal tariffs. And China's on a separate track with this Geneva framework that doesn't expire until August 12th. So we're not expecting a sweeping overhaul by Wednesday.
B (2:06)
Got it. So what are the scenarios that we're watching?
A (2:09)
So there's roughly three that we're looking at and let me break them down here. So our base case is that the administration extends the current pause, citing progress in bilateral talks. And maybe there's a few exceptions along the way in either direction, some higher and some lower. This broadly resets the countdown clock, but keeps the current tariff structure intact. 10% baseline for most trading partners, though some potentially higher if negotiations don't progress in the next week. That outcome would be most in line, we think, with the current messaging coming out of the administration. There's also a more aggressive path if there's no visible progress. For example, the administration could reimpose tariffs with staggered implementation dates. The EU might face a tougher stance due to the complexity of that relationship, and Vietnam could see delayed threats as a negotiating tactic, a strong macro backdrop, resilient data for markets that could all give the administration cover to go this route. But there's also a more constructive outcome. The administration can announce regional or bilateral frameworks, not necessarily full trade deals, but enough to remove the near term threat of higher tariffs, reducing uncertainty, though maybe not to pre2024 levels.