Watching the Canary in the Coalmine

Summary

Podcast Summary: Thoughts on the Market – "Watching the Canary in the Coalmine"

Release Date: June 27, 2025
Host: Andrew Sheats, Head of Corporate Credit Research at Morgan Stanley

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Introduction

In the June 27th episode of Thoughts on the Market, Andrew Sheats delves into the complexities of recent geopolitical events, particularly focusing on U.S. airstrikes against Iran and the ensuing conflict between Iran and Israel. Joined by his colleague Michael Wilson, Sheats seeks to unravel how such events influence financial markets, drawing on historical data and current economic indicators.

Geopolitical Events and Market Impact

Timestamp: [00:00 – 01:05]

Andrew Sheats opens the discussion by highlighting the immediate and multifaceted repercussions of geopolitical tensions. He underscores the volatility introduced by U.S. airstrikes against Iran and the ongoing Iran-Israel conflict, emphasizing that these situations are "complicated, uncertain and ever changing" ([00:00]).

Michael Wilson complements this by noting the dynamic nature of such events: “Conditions may very well have changed again” ([00:33]). Sheats acknowledges the significant human and social costs but points out that geopolitics do not always translate into predictable market movements. He references Michael Wilson’s analysis over the past 30 years, revealing that the S&P 500's reactions to key geopolitical events have often been "fleeting or somewhat non existent" ([00:36]).

Historical Market Response to Geopolitical Events

Timestamp: [00:48 – 02:22]

Delving deeper, Sheats discusses the historical influence of geopolitical events on the markets. He notes that while such events carry severe implications, their direct impact on financial markets is not consistently significant. “Other factors, in short, dominate markets,” he explains ([00:52]).

Michael Wilson raises the challenge of balancing the seriousness of current events with historical trends: “How to take current events seriously while respecting that historical precedent that they often can have more limited market impact?” ([01:05]).

Sheats proposes a strategic approach to navigating this uncertainty by focusing on oil prices. He posits, “The best way to simplify the market's response is to watch oil prices” ([01:07]). Wilson elaborates, emphasizing oil's critical role in the global economy and its immediate effect on businesses and consumers: “Oil remains an important input to the world economy, where changes in price are felt quickly by businesses and consumers” ([01:26]).

Sheats further highlights that substantial oil price increases—defined as a rise of 75% or more year-over-year—have historically been linked to market-moving geopolitical events. Such spikes heighten recession risks, impacting credit markets and beyond ([01:42]).

Current Market Conditions and Oil Prices

Timestamp: [02:04 – 03:19]

Shifting focus to the present, Wilson assesses the current oil market: “Oil prices are actually down about 20% relative to a year ago” ([02:04]). Sheats contrasts the current scenario with past events like the 1970s oil crisis and Russia's invasion of Ukraine, noting that "current conditions are in a very different category" ([02:15]).

She attributes the stability in oil prices to healthy supply levels, citing his colleague Martin Ratz’s earlier insights: “Oil markets do have very healthy levels of supply, which is helping to cushion these shocks” ([02:17]). Consequently, with oil prices subdued, Sheats anticipates that credit markets will pivot towards other positive factors.

Wilson identifies several favorable short-term conditions: a “good balance of supply and demand in the credit market,” “low realized volatility,” and “a historically good window in the very near term for performance” ([02:41]). Sheats reinforces this optimism by pointing out that, historically, July has been the best month of the year for returns in both investment-grade and high-yield credit across the US and Europe ([02:48]).

However, they caution about potential disruptors. A significant oil price surge could unsettle the market, but Sheats believes a more probable threat lies in shifting favorable conditions post-July. He notes that Morgan Stanley's economic forecasts anticipate “a worsening mix of growth and inflation in the US while seasonal return patterns flip from good to bad” ([03:13]).

Conclusion and Forward Look

Timestamp: [03:19 – End]

In wrapping up, Sheats emphasizes the importance of vigilance: “In the meantime, however, we will keep watching oil” ([03:19]). Both hosts encourage listeners to engage with the podcast by leaving reviews and sharing it with others, signaling their commitment to providing insightful market analysis.

Martin Ratz’s brief disclaimer underscores the informational nature of the content, ensuring listeners understand that the discussion is not tailored financial advice ([03:44]).

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Key Takeaways:

• Geopolitical Events: While significant in human and social terms, their direct impact on financial markets is often limited and fleeting.

• Oil Prices as a Market Indicator: Monitoring oil prices provides a tangible measure to gauge market responses to geopolitical tensions.

• Current Market Stability: With oil prices down 20% year-over-year and healthy supply levels, immediate market conditions remain favorable.

• Potential Risks: Future market disruptions could arise from shifts in economic growth and inflation patterns rather than oil price volatility.

• Historical Insights: July has historically been a strong month for credit market returns, bolstering short-term investor confidence.

Notable Quotes:

• Andrew Sheats: “The situation is complicated, uncertain and ever changing” ([00:00]).

• Michael Wilson: “Conditions may very well have changed again” ([00:33]).

• Michael Wilson: “How to take current events seriously while respecting that historical precedent that they often can have more limited market impact?” ([01:05]).

• Andrew Sheats: “The best way to simplify the market's response is to watch oil prices” ([01:07]).

• Andrew Sheats: “Oil has an important economic input in such a short period of time increases the risk of recession” ([01:45]).

• Michael Wilson: “Oil remains an important input to the world economy, where changes in price are felt quickly by businesses and consumers” ([01:28]).

• Michael Wilson: “A rise of 75% or more year” ([01:42]).

• Andrew Sheats: “Current conditions in a very different category” ([02:15]).

• Andrew Sheats: “In the meantime, however, we will keep watching oil” ([03:19]).

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This comprehensive summary captures the essence of the podcast episode, providing listeners with a clear understanding of the discussions surrounding geopolitical events, oil prices, and their implications for the financial markets.

Transcript

[Andrew Sheats]

Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I'm Andrew Sheats, head of Corporate Credit Research at Morgan Stanley. Today I'm going to talk about how we're trying to simplify the complicated questions of recent geopolitical events. It's Friday, June 27th at 2pm in London. Recent U.S. airstrikes against Iran and the ongoing conflict between Iran and Israel have dominated the headlines. The situation is complicated, uncertain and ever changing. From the time that this episode is recorded to when you listen to it.

[Michael Wilson]

Conditions may very well have changed again.

[Andrew Sheats]

Geopolitical events such as this one often have a serious human, social and financial cost, but they do not consistently have an impact on markets. As analysis by my colleague Michael Wilson.

[Michael Wilson]

And his team have shown over a number of key geopolitical events over the.

[Andrew Sheats]

Last 30 years, the impact on the S&P 500 has often been either fleeting or somewhat non existent. Other factors, in short, dominate markets. So how to deal with this conundrum?

[Michael Wilson]

How to take current events seriously while.

[Andrew Sheats]

Respecting that historical precedent that they often can have more limited market impact? How to make a forecast when, quite simply, few investors feel like they have an edge in predicting where these events will go next? In our view, the best way to simplify the market's response is to watch oil prices.

[Michael Wilson]

Oil remains an important input to the.

[Andrew Sheats]

World economy, where changes in price are felt quickly by businesses and consumers. So when we look back at past geopolitical events that did move markets in a more sustained way, a large increase in oil prices, by which we mean.

[Michael Wilson]

A rise of 75% or more year.

[Andrew Sheats]

Over year, was often part of the story.

[Michael Wilson]

Such a rise in such an important.

[Andrew Sheats]

Economic input in such a short period of time increases the risk of recession, something that credit markets and many other markets need to care about.

[Michael Wilson]

So how can we apply this today? Well, for all the seriousness and severity.

[Andrew Sheats]

Of the current conflict, oil prices are actually down about 20% relative to a year ago. This simply puts current conditions in a very different category than those other periods.

[Michael Wilson]

Be they the 1970s or more recently.

[Andrew Sheats]

Russia's invasion of Ukraine that genuine oil price shocks.

[Michael Wilson]

Why is oil down?

[Andrew Sheats]

Well, as my colleague Martin Ratz referred to on an earlier episode of this program, oil markets do have very healthy levels of supply, which is helping to cushion these shocks. With oil prices actually lower than a year ago, we think the credit will focus on other things to the positive.

[Michael Wilson]

We see an alignment of a few.

[Andrew Sheats]

Short term positive factors, specifically a pretty.

[Michael Wilson]

Good balance of supply and demand in.

[Andrew Sheats]

The credit market, low realized volatility, and.

[Michael Wilson]

A historically good window in the very near term for performance. Indeed, over the last 15 years, July has represented the best month of the.

[Andrew Sheats]

Year for returns in both investment grade and high yield credit in both the US and in Europe. And what could disrupt this? Well, a significant spike in oil prices could be one culprit, but we think.

[Michael Wilson]

A more likely catalyst is a shift of those favorable conditions which could happen from August and beyond.

[Andrew Sheats]

From here, Morgan Stanley economists forecasts see.

[Michael Wilson]

A worsening mix of growth and inflation in the US while seasonal return patterns.

[Andrew Sheats]

Flip from good to bad. In the meantime, however, we will keep watching oil thank you as always for your time. If you find thoughts the market useful.

[Michael Wilson]

Let us know by leaving a review.

[Andrew Sheats]

Wherever you listen and also tell a.

[Michael Wilson]

Friend or colleague about us today.

[Martin Ratz]

The proceeding content is informational only and based on information available when created. It is not an offer or solicitation, nor is it tax or legal advice. It does not consider your financial circumstances and objectives and may not be suitable for you.