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Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I'm Andrew Sheetz, head of corporate credit research at Morgan Stanley. Today I'll be discussing realistic scenarios where things are worse than we expect. Next week, I'll cover what could be better. It's Wednesday, December 11, at 2pm in London. Morgan Stanley strategists and economists recently completed our forecasting process for the year ahead, and regular listeners will have now heard our expectations across a wide range of economies and markets. But I'd stress that these forecasts are a central case. The world is uncertain, with a probability distribution around all forecasts. So in the case of credit, what could go wrong? As a quick reminder, our baseline for credit is reasonably constructive. We think that low credit spreads can remain low, especially in the first half of next year, as policy changes slow to come through, economic data holds up. The Fed and the European Central bank ease rates more than expected, and still high yields on corporate bonds attract buyers. So how does all of that go wrong? Well, there are a few specific realistic factors that could lead us to something worse. That is our bear case. Let me start with US Policy. Morgan Stanley's Public Policies team's view is that the incoming US Administration will see fast announcement but slow implementation on key issues like tariffs, fiscal policy, and immigration, and that that slower implementation of any of these policies will mean that change comes less quickly to the economy. But that change could happen faster, which would mean weaker growth and higher prices if, for example, tariffs were to hit earlier or in larger size. In the case of immigration, we're actually still forecasting positive net immigration over the next several years. But a larger change in policy would raise the odds of a more severe labor shortage, even outside any specific change from the new US Administration. There's also a risk that the US Economy simply runs out of gas. The recovery since COVID has been extraordinary, one of the fastest on record, especially in the labor market. The risk is that companies have now done all the hiring they need to do, meaning a slower job market going forward. Even in their base case, Morgan Stanley's economists see job market growth slowing, adding just 28,000 jobs a month in 2026. And to give you a sense of how low that number is, the average over the last 12 months was 190,000. And so the bear case is that the labor market slows even more, more quickly, raising the risk of recession and dramatically lowering bond yields, both of which would reduce investor demand for corporate bonds. At the other extreme, credit could be challenged if conditions are too hot because current levels of corporate aggression are still quite low. We think they could rise in 2025 without creating a major problem. But if those corporate animal spirits arrive more rapidly, it could could be a negative. Outside the US we think the growth in Europe holds up as the European Central bank cuts rates and Europeans end up saving at a slightly less elevated rate and that that can keep growth near this year's levels around 1%. But you don't need me to tell you that Europe is riddled with challenges, from the political in France to major structural questions around Germany's economy. Meanwhile, China, the world's second largest economy, continues to struggle with too little inflation. We think that growth in China muddles through, but a larger trade escalation could drive downside risk One reason why we prefer ex China credit within Asia, of course, maybe the most obvious risk to credit is simply valuation. Credit spreads in the US are near 20 year lows, while the US price to earnings multiple for the equity market is near 20 year highs. In our view, valuation is a much better guide to returns over the next six years rather than say, the next six months. And that's one reason we're currently looking through this. But those valuations do leave a lot less margin for error. Thanks for listening. If you enjoy the show, leave us a review wherever you listen and share thoughts on the market with a friend or colleague today.
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