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Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I'm Mike Wilson, Morgan Stanley CIO and chief U.S. equity strategist. Today in the podcast, I'll be discussing why earnings remain the most important variable for equity markets. It's Monday, May 4th at 2pm in New York, so let's get after it. The more I think about what's been driving this market and the more time I spend with the data, the more I keep coming back to the same conclusion. It's earnings, not the headlines, not even the Fed. Earnings are doing the heavy lifting right now. When I look at this reporting season, what stands out isn't just resilience. It's strength that's broader than most people appreciate. The typical company in The S&P 500 is growing earnings at about 16%, and the median earnings surprise is running around 6%. That's the strongest we've seen in four years. What's really interesting to me is that this strength is no longer confined to just the biggest tech names. Yeah, hyperscalers and semiconductors are still playing a leading role, but the story is expanding. We're seeing earnings revisions move higher across financials, industrials, and consumer cyclicals in particular. That kind of breath tells me this isn't just a narrow leadership story. It's something more sustainable. The at the same time, many investors are focused on the geopolitical backdrop, particularly the Iran conflict, and what it means for oil inflation and supply chains. To be fair, companies are feeling some of that pressure. When you listen to earnings calls, you hear about rising freight costs, tighter supply chains, and higher input prices across industries like chemicals and machinery. But here's the nuance. Those impacts are uneven. They're not hitting the entire market in the same way. In fact, at the index level, they're being offset. Energy has become a positive contributor to earnings growth, and the higher end consumer remains relatively strong. Even with higher fuel costs, we're not seeing a meaningful pullback in overall consumption, at least not yet. That tells me that we're not dealing with a classic demand shock. We're dealing with a redistribution of pressure, and companies are adapting. In many cases, they're passing through higher costs. Revenue surprises are running above historical norms, which suggests pricing power is improving. Now, of course, earnings aren't the only piece of the puzzle. Policy still matters, and the shift in rate expectations this year has been meaningful. The Fed has clearly become more concerned about inflation, and the market has repriced expectations to fewer cuts and maybe even a higher probability of hikes. That repricing is a big reason why valuations corrected so sharply over the past six months. It's notable that even with that headwind, equities have managed to stabilize thanks to earnings. When earnings are growing at an above trend pace, equities can deliver solid returns regardless of whether the Fed is cutting or not. That said, I do think that there's one area of risk that deserves further attention, and that's liquidity. We've seen periods of funding stress over the past six months, and those moments have coincided with pressure on valuation. The Fed and Treasury have stepped in at times to stabilize these conditions, helping to reduce bond volatility and support equity multiples. Bottom line We've already had a meaningful correction in valuations this year, with price earnings multiples falling 18% from their peak last fall. That adjustment occurred as the market digested the many risks that we've been highlighting. Meanwhile, earnings are not only holding up, they're accelerating and broadening across sectors. The risks that we've all focused on geopolitics, oil supply chains are real, but they're being absorbed at the company level. As a result, the price declines were much more modest than the compression in valuations. Meanwhile, monetary policy is providing some headwinds, but it's not overwhelming the Earnings Story Equity markets move on two things, earnings and liquidity. Right now, earnings are more than offsetting the lingering liquidity concerns. In short, earnings growth is greater than the valuation reset. This is a classic bull market behavior, and as long as that continues, I think the US Equity market will grind higher for the rest of the year with intermittent bouts of volatility. Thanks for tuning in. I hope you found it informative and useful. If you let us know what you think by leaving us a review, and if you find thoughts on the market worthwhile, tell a friend or colleague to try it out.
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