Throughline (NPR): "The Creeping Coup"

Release Date: November 13, 2025
Hosts: Rund Abdelfatah, Ramtin Arablouei
Guest Experts: Khouloud Khair (Confluence Advisory), Christopher Townsell (University of Washington), Ibrahim Al Badawi (Economic Research Forum, ex-Sudanese Finance Minister)

Overview

This powerful episode unravels the catastrophic war in Sudan—its deep historical roots, tragic present, and the international games being played for power, oil, gold, and influence. Through first-hand accounts, expert guest analysis, and vivid storytelling, the hosts trace Sudan’s endless cycle of coups, foreign meddling, and the dreams of ordinary Sudanese for peace and democracy—dreams threatened by what guests call “a creeping coup.”

Key Themes & Discussion Points

1. The Current Crisis: Escape and Humanitarian Catastrophe

[00:15–04:04]

• Rund explains the war in Sudan has intensified and "the conflict is once again in the news" with mass displacement, famine, and warnings of genocide.
• Khouloud Khair recounts her harrowing flight from Khartoum:

  "The last thing I saw of Sudan was the sea." (Khouloud Khair, [00:58])

• Over 4 million have fled since April 2023. 11 million are internally displaced; 40,000+ have died (WHO estimate).
• "Sudan is also home to the world's largest hunger crisis, with millions facing extreme hunger and millions more at risk." (Rund, [03:19])
• Khouloud: Without global attention, "the situation there will get infinitely worse." ([03:28])

2. Sudan’s Strategic Global Significance

[04:05–05:37]

• The Red Sea and Suez Canal make Sudan critical for world trade.
• “Any disruption to that trade route could… spell disaster for Europe’s energy grid. It could also mean further instability in the Middle East and Africa.” (Ramtin, [04:09])
• Deep, tangled international interests: "a story tied to the US war on terror, China's global rise, the UAE's economic and political pursuits, and Russia's war in Ukraine." (Rund, [05:21])

3. Deep Historical Roots: Empire and Identity

[07:30–18:15]

• The Mahdi Revolt and Colonialism:
  • In the late 1800s, the Mahdi led an anti-colonial uprising. The British crushed it, holding Sudan for decades.
  • Historian Christopher Townsell: "For a century… that name, Al Mahdi, was Sudanese political gold." ([11:57])
• Cycle of Coups and Marginalization:
  • After independence (1956): repeated coups—“on average, there was a coup attempt every five years.” (Rund, [13:14])
  • Power concentrated in the north—leaving southern and western regions marginalized, fueling ethnic, religious, and economic divides.
  • "Sudan's history is extremely cyclical. It's almost depressingly cyclical." (Khouloud Khair, [13:09])

4. Bashir’s Dictatorship and the Rise of Militias

[17:28–33:45]

• Islamist Takeover (1989):
  • Omar al-Bashir seized power, backed by Islamic ideologue Hassan al-Turabi, pursuing strict Sharia and Arab/Muslim dominance.
  • Bashir "coup-proofed" his regime through military purges and patronage—also hosting Osama bin Laden, triggering US sanctions.
• The Oil Boom and Corruption:
  • Oil discovered along the North-South border ("the oil era… changed the economy of Sudan very profoundly."—Ibrahim Al Badawi, [23:04])
  • Bashir used oil wealth to expand the security sector: "70 to 80% of state revenues going towards the security sector." (Khouloud Khair, [25:08])
  • Wealth hoarded by elites, corruption exploded, peripheries left behind.
• Darfur Genocide and Creation of Paramilitaries:
  • When unrest erupted in Darfur (early 2000s), Bashir used both the army (led by Burhan) and Arab militias, the Janjaweed (led by Hemetti).
  • "Devils on horseback… they killed 16 people and burned the village completely." (Darfur survivor, [28:17])
  • Bashir indicted by the ICC for genocide and crimes against humanity for atrocities in Darfur ([29:06]).
• Sudan’s Paramilitary Frankenstein:
  • As the south seceded (2011), taking much of the oil, Bashir empowered Hemetti and the Janjaweed ("my protection") by creating the Rapid Support Forces (RSF), giving them control over gold mines ([33:06–33:45]).

5. Revolution, Hope, and Betrayal

[36:12–43:53]

• 2018–19 Uprising:
  • Bread price hikes spark massive protests, leading to Bashir's ouster by Burhan and Hemetti:

    "He seized power in a military coup 30 years ago and today he was ousted by one." (Khouloud Khair, [38:30])

• Tragedy at the Moment of Hope:
  • The June 2019 Khartoum massacre: RSF kills, rapes, and detains protesters, military looks away.
  • International mediation (Ethiopia, AU) creates a civilian-military transition government, but Hemetti and Burhan remain central.
• "Creeping Coup”:
  • “They were probably waiting for the right time to renege on their commitment. Some Sudanese, they call it a creeping coup.” (Ibrahim Al Badawi, [42:53])
  • 2021: Military seizes power again, transition aborted.

6. The Road to War: Clashing Ambitions and Foreign Meddling

[43:07–45:49]

• Rapid Support Forces vs. Army:
  • Disputes over incorporating the RSF into the army spark brutal fighting in 2023 ([44:16–44:45]).
• **Both Hemetti and Burhan enrich themselves (gold, asset seizures), but eventually rivalry explodes into open war, plunging Sudan into chaos once more.

7. Layers of Conflict: Power, Wealth, and Geopolitics

[45:49–49:10]

• Who’s Arming Whom?
  • The UAE supplies weapons to the RSF in exchange for gold. Sudan accuses UAE of genocide at the ICJ (case dismissed), then cuts diplomatic ties ([47:25]).
  • Russia plays both sides. The Wagner Group helps smuggle gold to Russia—critical after ruble is tied to gold amidst Western sanctions ([48:05–48:57]).
  • Russia seeks Red Sea naval access, dealing with Burhan and the army ([49:03]).
• Victims: Hope and Civil Society:
  • Both warlords see ordinary Sudanese and the dream of democracy as the enemy:

    "It is a war against civilians. And so while they are fighting each other, they're also fighting the civilians of Sudan, who they recognize as the true change agents." (Khouloud Khair, [49:30])

• Manufactured Disaster:
  • "They have blocked points of exit for civilians...blocked points of entry for humanitarian aid. They are creating conditions where civilians will die." (Christopher Townsell, [50:12])

8. The Unextinguished Hope

[51:13–52:18]

• Khouloud Khair, reflecting on exile and the lost aroma of Sudan after rain:

  “And I really hope that we're able to retain...that thing that really binds us...I think it's the fact that we all, so many of us, have a hope that Sudan will be better. And that's something that's very difficult to extinguish in people.” ([51:13])

Notable Quotes with Timestamps & Speaker Attribution

• On personal loss and exile:

  "The last thing I saw of Sudan was the sea."
  – Khouloud Khair, [00:58]; repeated at [02:39]

• On the tragedy at Darfur:

  "We are charging Al Bashir with three counts of genocide, five crimes against humanity, and two of war crimes."
  – ICC statement, [28:58]

• On the cycle of coups:

  "Sudan's history is extremely cyclical. It's almost depressingly cyclical."
  – Khouloud Khair, [13:09]

• On warlords’ true opposition:

  "It is a war against civilians...while they are fighting each other, they're also fighting the civilians of Sudan, who they recognize as the true change agents.” – Khouloud Khair, [49:30]

• On hope and belonging:

  "I think it's the fact that we all...have a hope that Sudan will be better. And that's something that's very difficult to extinguish in people."
  – Khouloud Khair, [51:13]

Timestamps for Major Segments

• Sudan’s Humanitarian Crisis: 00:15–04:04
• Sudan’s Strategic Location and International Interests: 04:05–05:37
• Historical Background—Colonialism and the Mahdi: 07:30–13:14
• Post-independence Coups and Power Struggles: 13:14–17:28
• Bashir’s Regime and Paramilitary Power Structures: 17:28–33:45
• Darfur Genocide and Rise of Hemetti/RSF: 28:02–34:19
• 2018 Revolution and Aftermath: 36:12–43:53
• Military “Creeping Coup” and Descent into War: 43:07–45:49
• Foreign Intervention and Resource Struggles: 45:49–49:10
• Civilians’ Enduring Hope: 51:13–52:18

Memorable Moments

• Poignant opening and closure: Khouloud Khair’s story of fleeing Sudan, the “smell of rain,” and the bruising hope carried by the Sudanese diaspora ([00:58]; [51:13]).
• Bread riots led by children: “A bunch of school children who were protesting that their sandwiches at school were too expensive…” ([36:20])
• Khartoum massacre described in the voices of those present ([39:24–40:30]).
• Unraveling the geopolitical "gold game": Russia, Wagner, UAE, and gold-backed rubles ([47:25–49:10]).

Tone & Storytelling

The episode is deeply human and analytical, blending historical narration, personal testimony, expert discussion, and a sense of grief and hard-won hope. The language is evocative, urgent, and empathetic, reflecting both the devastation and the indomitability of Sudan’s people.

Summary Takeaways

• Sudan’s current war is the direct product of colonial legacies, cycles of elite power struggles, and the calculated intervention of foreign powers chasing profit and strategic advantage.
• The “creeping coup”—military actors subverting civilian democracy—has repeated for over half a century, with Bashir, Hemetti, and Burhan each playing the game in their own fashion.
• The biggest losers are always the ordinary Sudanese, whose hopes for democracy and dignity are persistently thwarted even as they continue to resist, and the international community looks away.
• "What happens in Sudan doesn't stay in Sudan," as its fate is bound up with the Red Sea, global trade, oil, gold, and shifting alliances.
• The episode closes on a bittersweet note, focusing on the stubborn hope of the Sudanese people in the face of immense loss—a hope "very difficult to extinguish in people."

For further reading/listening, visit NPR’s Throughline archives.