Timcast IRL: LEAKED Memo Says NO BACK PAY For Federal Workers Amid Government Shutdown w/ Matt Gaetz, Dave DeCamp, Curtis Mills

Date: October 8, 2025
Host: Timcast Media
Guest Host: Matt Gaetz
Panelists: Dave DeCamp (Antiwar.com), Kurt Mills (American Conservative), Lot Eliyahu (Timcast White House correspondent), Phil Labonte (All That Remains)

Episode Overview

In this episode, guest host Matt Gaetz leads a freewheeling, often combative roundtable on the current federal government shutdown, the leaked memo on no back pay for workers, and the broader implications for US politics, foreign policy, and political factions. The panel delves into shutdown theater, winners and losers, the Democratic-Republican messaging war, foreign entanglements (especially regarding Israel, Iran, and Venezuela), intra-GOP divides (with a focus on libertarians vs. MAGA), the polarization around US-Israel relations (triggered by the Charlie Kirk text message leak), and the realignments happening on the American right—all presented with the show’s signature irreverence and argument.

Key Discussion Points

1. Current Government Shutdown: Impact, Causes & Blame

• Shutdown as Political Theater:

  • Phil Labonte: “If the government’s shut down, that doesn’t mean the military’s not doing stuff … it’s theater. The American people that rely on the government for stuff kind of are the losers.” [05:00]
  • Matt Gaetz: “It has a sort of Festivus energy to it. People are mad about the deport, people are mad about the tariffs, people are mad about executive power.” [06:10]

• Blame Game & Messaging:

  • Matt Gaetz: Expresses confusion that Republicans are getting blamed for a shutdown “objectively caused by the Democrats over external policy demands.” [06:10]
  • Kurt Mills: Argues that “there’s an impression of Republican power right now because the Democrats are invisible … Trump is blamed for something going on in Washington, D.C.” [06:56]

• When Does the Pain Set In?

  • Panel agrees public outrage will rise after a couple missed federal paychecks.
  • “You miss two paychecks, a family is in crisis.” – Gaetz [13:59]

• Who Really Feels It?

  • Matt Gaetz: “The elites have insulated themselves from the pain of shutdowns.” [16:54]
  • Phil Labonte: “Money gives you options. The people that have a million tucked away … don’t worry about this.” [17:22]

2. Shutdown as Political Tool & Intra-GOP Tensions

• Trump’s Base & the ‘System’

  • Discussion of whether shutdown energizes Trump’s younger supporters. Gaetz relays a pollster theory that "Trump needs the shutdown to reconstitute his base of the under-39 crowd—who want to see violence done to the ‘system’.” [18:14]

• House Leadership Critique

  • Gaetz calls Speaker Mike Johnson a “rubber stamp on the MAGA agenda” and decries the House as fractured.
  • Gaetz: “We have no unifying principle … there were seven different political parties in the room.” [25:13]
  • Kurt Mills: “Weakest Congress has been in American history. It’s astonishing.” [26:04]

• Libertarians vs. MAGA

  • Heated debate over Thomas Massie’s place in the party.
  • “He’s essentially a Trojan horse for the left in our party.” – Lot Eliyahu [30:08]
  • “Massey should be the heart of what the party is.” – Kurt Mills [29:12]

3. US-Israel Relationship & the Charlie Kirk Leaks

• Turning Point USA/Charlie Kirk Texts

  • Candace Owens’ release of Kirk’s texts exposes pressure from Jewish donors over pro/anti-Israel stances, refusal to “cancel Tucker” [40:33], and increasing intra-movement fissures.
  • Andrew Colvitt (Kirk’s close associate) confirms texts’ authenticity and frames them as showing “dual pressure” and that “no stone was unturned” in investigating Kirk’s murder. [42:06]

• Is the Right Divorcing Pro-Israel Factions?

  • Kurt Mills: “I want a movement on the right that can exist with people who want to listen to Mark Levin … and also those who don’t want to go to war over the Middle East anymore.” [45:00]
  • Debate: Can the pro-Israel right and the “question the depth of the relationship” right coexist? [46:36]

• Panel on US Policy Toward Israel

  • Gaetz describes pressure on new right figures to never question Israeli policy: “If you asked any questions about any decision of the Israeli government … you had deviated from the script.” [70:29]
  • Panel notes growing anti-Israel sentiment among young people, more so than left/right divides.
  • Dave DeCamp: “What we’ve seen is a mass murder livestreamed. At the end of the day, it’s a foreign country. It’s not in our interest to support this in America.” [81:28]

• Israel’s Influence Ops in the US

  • Dave DeCamp details Israeli foreign ministry’s $4.1 million geofencing campaign targeting American Christians with pro-Israel ads. [90:28]
  • Skepticism over expected impact; noted as a sign of Israel’s anxiety about shifting US Christian support.

4. Iran Policy & Nonproliferation Debates

• Realities of Negotiation with Iran

  • Extensive debate over nuclear deals, role of proxies, and US credibility.
  • Kurt Mills: “We have made every policy choice to make nuclear proliferation more likely. It’s the hawks … who are agnostic about whether or not they [Iran] get the bomb.” [51:37]
  • Matt Gaetz: “I think the era of proliferation in the Middle East is upon us … You’re not gonna be able to keep that amount of money away from that amount of desire to have the deterrent that a nuclear weapon affords.” [59:53]

• Proxies vs. Nuclear Issue

  • Lot Eliyahu: Higher priority is not just Iran’s nuclear capability but also “Iranian proxies have the death of more American service members on their hands.” [56:45]

5. Foreign Policy Faultlines—Venezuela, Mexico, China

• US-Venezuela Hostilities

  • Kurt Mills: “They are moving towards soft regime change. Secretary Rubio has long wanted … pretty extreme hawkishness on Venezuela.” [101:50]
  • Gaetz disputes Rubio’s hawkishness, says in his experience Rubio argued against military intervention in Venezuela [102:42]; panel agrees Florida’s politics play a big role (e.g. embargo policy driven by Miami Cuban/Venezuelan expats).

• Bombing Cartels in Mexico and Venezuela

  • Gaetz, with some panel support, floats the idea: “I think we should bomb the meth labs in Mexico.” [111:09]
  • Dave DeCamp counters: “You can’t just bomb drug traffickers. The issue is there’s a big market for drugs in the US. That’s not something we can just bomb away.” [113:31]

6. Emerging American Realignment & Working with Political Opponents

• Coalitions of Convenience

  • Debating antiwar left-right collaboration, with Lot Eliyahu warning against any “common cause with communists.”
  • Phil Labonte: “If you don’t agree with me about this particular topic then you’re just against the entire agenda? I totally reject that.” [83:21]

• Trump as a ‘Pragmatist, Not Ideologue’

  • Phil Labonte: “There is nothing Trump wants more than to go down in history as a positive, good president. And you don’t do that by making the American people miserable. He’s not an ideological guy.” [88:48]
  • Matt Gaetz: “Trump saw the Republican Party as just an acquisition target … I can improve its value. Very, very business approach.” [89:43]

Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• “You miss two paychecks, a family is in crisis.”
  —Matt Gaetz [13:59]

• “I think there’s more of a libertarian streak in MAGA. At least there was at the beginning, because we were like outcasts.”
  —Matt Gaetz [38:55]

• “Democrats are blaming congressional Republicans for a cliff in credits they set up... And yet I do not see a single poll that suggests the American people are not blaming the Republicans.”
  —Matt Gaetz [06:10]

• “We have no unifying principle. There were like seven different political parties in the room.”
  —Matt Gaetz [25:13]

• “If you supported Trump over candidacies like Rubio or Jeb, there was something a little off about you.”
  —Matt Gaetz [39:09]

• “Kurt said on my program he wants a divorce from the Israel first crowd on the right ... I actually want a movement ... that can exist with people who want to listen to Mark Levin, and also those who don’t want to go to war over the Middle East anymore.”
  —Matt Gaetz [45:00]

• “The panel notes growing anti-Israel sentiment among young people, more so than left/right divides.”
  —Summary [73:46]

• “US policy toward Israel: there’s a growing anti-Israel segment on the right, and a bigger concern for Israelis should be the growing dissent within the Democratic party and far left.”
  —Lot Eliyahu [79:46]

• “Let Israel take care of Israel.”
  —Phil Labonte [132:57]

Timestamps for Key Segments

• Opening/Introductions: 03:55–04:49
• Shutdown Blame Game: 05:00–11:40
• Who Gets Hurt By Shutdown: 13:00–17:20
• Younger Voters & Shutdown: 18:14–21:04
• Congressional Leadership & Fractures: 25:13–26:17
• Debate Over Libertarians/Massie & Party Purity: 28:15–34:02
• US-Israel Tensions & Charlie Kirk Leak: 40:01–46:16
• Nuclear Deal & Iran Policy: 50:37–64:23
• Venezuela, Mexico, Bombing Cartels: 100:32–115:32
• China, Taiwan, Global Priorities: 115:43–117:47
• American Political Realignment: 128:36–133:46

Tone and Style

• The conversation is uncensored, feisty, and often joking—typical of Timcast IRL roundtable panels.
• Participants frequently engage in friendly but heated argument, especially Lot Eliyahu (more uncompromising MAGA) vs. other panelists (Libertarian/right-leaning non-interventionists).
• Matt Gaetz both moderates and injects personal anecdotes and sharp critiques of DC politics.
• The analysis is insider-y but meant for an audience that wants in-the-weeds details and frank commentary.

Conclusion

This episode delivers an in-depth and sometimes contentious discussion of the ongoing government shutdown and its ripple effects across US politics and foreign policy. The panel exposes fissures within the American right, especially on Israel and foreign wars, while highlighting broader realignment trends. Through the lens of breaking news (the leaked memo, Charlie Kirk texts), the hosts illuminate the shifting ground beneath American partisanship—with plenty of wit, skepticism, and candor.