Trump Signs GLOBAL Tariffs, Trade War Goes NUCLEAR As Market TANKS w/Mark Mitchell

Summary

Timcast IRL: Trump Signs GLOBAL Tariffs, Trade War Goes NUCLEAR As Market TANKS w/Mark Mitchell

Release Date: April 3, 2025
Host: Tim Pool
Guest: Mark Mitchell, Head Pollster of Rasmussen Reports

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Introduction

In this episode of Timcast IRL, host Tim Pool discusses the significant economic developments following President Donald Trump's recent signing of global tariffs. The episode features Mark Mitchell from Rasmussen Reports, along with contributions from White House correspondent Elad Eliyahu, heavy metal band leader Phil Labonte, and Ian Crossland. The conversation delves into the implications of Trump's tariff policies, market reactions, polling accuracy, and the broader political landscape affecting the upcoming midterms.

Trump's Global Tariffs and Economic Impact

Tim Pool kicks off the discussion by announcing Trump's enactment of reciprocal tariffs aimed at combating trade manipulation and barriers. He contrasts Trump's stance—branding the move as "liberation day"—with the Democrats' portrayal of it as leading to a potential recession:

• [00:03] Tim Pool: "Donald Trump has signed global tariffs... Trump's calling it liberation day. The Democrats are calling it recession day."

Mark Mitchell acknowledges Rasmussen Reports' reputation for accuracy despite perceptions of bias:

• [02:28] Mark Mitchell: "Yeah, we do pretty well."

The episode then features a clip of Donald Trump's address on the tariffs, where he emphasizes economic independence and the reclamation of American wealth:

• [03:30] Donald Trump: "April 2, 2025 will forever be remembered... a historic executive order instituting reciprocal tariffs on countries throughout the world."

Tim Pool analyzes the tariff specifics, noting skepticism about the accuracy of the tariff rates cited by critics:

• [05:59] Tim Pool: "The foreign countries are supposedly charging us are just made up numbers... extraordinary nonsense."

Elad Eliyahu offers a nuanced view, suggesting that Trump's tariffs may primarily serve as a negotiating tactic rather than a genuine effort to repatriate manufacturing:

• [12:48] Elad Eliyahu: "I think Trump's trying to do an art of the wind style reduction of tariff from other countries."

Phil Labonte discusses the potential long-term benefits of returning manufacturing to the U.S., highlighting national security imperatives:

• [08:33] Phil Labonte: "The goal is to return manufacturing... it's a national security imperative."

Polling Accuracy and Public Opinion

A significant portion of the episode focuses on polling accuracy and public perception. Mark Mitchell defends Rasmussen Reports' methodology, emphasizing the importance of frequent polling and representative sampling:

• [90:18] Mark Mitchell: "Scientifically, statistically Relevant. Yes, Relevant."

Tim Pool questions the representativeness of polling samples, to which Mark Mitchell explains the statistical foundations that validate a sample of 1,500 as adequately representative within a margin of error:

• [95:34] Mark Mitchell: "Statistically, scientifically Relevant."

The discussion highlights the challenges faced by pollsters in maintaining accuracy amidst evolving methodologies and potential biases:

• [84:40] Mark Mitchell: "People have cherry picked... they can do a push poll."

Political Division and Midterm Implications

The conversation shifts to the political ramifications of the tariffs and the current divisions within Congress. Mark Mitchell expresses concerns about Republican unity and the potential loss of congressional seats due to gerrymandering:

• [02:03] Tim Pool: "There’s a fear that the slim majority will be lost in 2027."

Elad Eliyahu warns that a recession could undermine Trump's policies:

• [34:45] Elad Eliyahu: "If a recession starts happening... it could get people to turn on Trump."

Phil Labonte emphasizes the disconnect between establishment Republicans and the MAGA movement, urging for greater alignment to harness Trump's popular support:

• [28:55] Phil Labonte: "There's a lot of Republican establishment that isn't aligning with the new MAGA ideology."

Judicial Overreach and Congressional Dysfunction

A segment of the episode critiques judicial overreach and the inefficacy of Congress. Tim Pool laments the obstruction faced by Republicans in passing Trump's agenda, citing recent legislative delays:

• [43:05] Elad Eliyahu: "It's unnecessary divisive at a time where Speaker Johnson only has a two-seat majority."

Mark Mitchell and Phil Labonte discuss the problematic dynamics within Congress, including instances where Republicans align with Democrats on issues detracting from the GOP's core agenda:

• [47:38] Phil Labonte: "Republicans like to promote special privileges... it's defamation of core GOP values."

Potential for Civil Strife and Secession Movements

The episode delves into broader societal tensions, with references to historical civil conflicts and modern secessionist sentiments:

• [57:55] Tim Pool: "Poll shows 43% believe in an imminent civil war."
• [60:16] Phil Labonte: "Minnesota has signs of growing secessionist movements."

Mark Mitchell connects these tensions to the "Fourth Turning" theory, suggesting that societal structures are on the brink of significant transformation:

• [73:36] Mark Mitchell: "We're in for maximum demand for order and zero supply."

Audience Engagement and Call to Action

Throughout the episode, Tim Pool encourages audience participation, promoting merchandise, Discord engagement, and social media interaction:

• [00:33] Tim Pool: "Join [e-mail] get in the Discord server... Smash that like button."

He also addresses listener queries and super chats, fostering a community-driven discussion atmosphere.

Conclusion

The episode concludes with lighter banter among the hosts and guests, celebrating personal milestones and teasing future content. Tim Pool reiterates the importance of sharing the show to amplify its reach and influence:

• [119:57] Tim Pool: "Smash that like button. Share the show with everyone you know."

Key Takeaways:

• Economic Policies: Trump's global tariffs are seen as a bold move to reclaim American economic independence, though opinions on their long-term efficacy remain divided.
• Polling Integrity: Rasmussen Reports defends its polling methodologies amidst broader skepticism about polling accuracy and media representation.
• Political Fragmentation: Internal divisions within the GOP and Congressional dysfunction pose challenges to advancing Trump's agenda and may influence midterm outcomes.
• Societal Tensions: Rising secessionist sentiments and potential for civil strife highlight deep-seated divisions within the U.S. population.
• Audience Engagement: Active listener participation is encouraged to bolster the show's impact and foster a like-minded community.

Notable Quotes:

• Tim Pool [00:03]: "Donald's calling it liberation day. The Democrats are calling it recession day."
• Donald Trump [03:30]: "This is one of the most important days, in my opinion, in American history."
• Mark Mitchell [02:33]: "They didn't actually calculate tariff rates plus non-tariff barriers."
• Phil Labonte [08:33]: "The goal is to return manufacturing... it's a national security imperative."
• Mark Mitchell [90:15]: "If you don’t personally think that that represents then you can prove us wrong in your own poll."

This episode of Timcast IRL provides a comprehensive analysis of Trump's tariff policies, their economic implications, and the intricate web of political and societal factors shaping the current American landscape. Through informed discussions and expert insights, listeners gain a deeper understanding of the challenges and potential outcomes facing the nation.

Transcript

[Tim Pool]

Donald Trump has signed global tariffs. And you know, Democrats and everybody, they're losing their minds. They're saying, we are now facing a new great depression. The market tanked rather dramatically and they're reporting that 401ks took a massive hit off of this. Now, Donald Trump says this is to combat tariffs, trade manipulation and trade barriers. So these are reciprocal tariffs targeting these other, other nations with trade deficits and tariffs on us. Either way, Trump's calling it liberation day. The Democrats are calling it recession day. And oh boy, if you didn't check your 401k or look at the market in the past hour or so, bless your heart, it's getting pretty brutal out there. But a lot of people are suggesting on the right that this is short term pain for long term gain. Either way, we'll see how this affects the midterm because we just had a big election in Florida and Wisconsin and the Democrats won the Supreme Court in Wisconsin. Many Republicans now fear they're going to gerrymander the states and take away two congressional seats from the Republicans. So we'll talk about that. But voter ID did win. The Republicans did win in Florida. We got a bunch of other stories, mind you, and we will get into all of those. Check out casprew.com we got delicious coffees available. Ian's graphene dream is back in stock, selling like hotcakes as it usually does. Appalachian nights, stand your grounds. Don't forget, you got, you got two weeks till Christmas. Starring Phil Labonte as Santa Claus. I know it's been several months since Christmas, but can you believe it's actually April already? That's crazy. And don't forget to join the discord [e-mail] be an active participant. Do not just be a passive observer. This is why we lose midterm elections and special elections. Because people come in in November, they vote and they say, I'm done. They watch the news, they know what's going on, but they're not actively participating. So whatever it is you got to do, one thing you can do is you can join [e-mail] get in the Discord server, hang out with like minded individuals, learn, build, share your ideas. That's one way to do it. Don't forget to also smash that like button, my friends. Share the show with everyone you know. Joining us tonight, talk about this and so much more is Mark Mitchell.

[Mark Mitchell]

Hey, good to be here.

[Tim Pool]

Who are you? What do you do?

[Mark Mitchell]

My name is Mark Mitchell. I'm the head pollster of the nationally renowned independent pollster Rasmussen reports.

[Tim Pool]

Right on. So this should be very interesting. Rasmussen has been. That's how you pronounce it, right? Rasmussen.

[Mark Mitchell]

Yeah, rhymes with Asmussen.

[Tim Pool]

Ah, okay. I always had Rasmussen.

[Mark Mitchell]

Yeah, I did too, until they hired me and now I might as well like change my last name.

[Tim Pool]

They're one of the most accurate pollsters over the past couple auction cycles. It's been pretty interesting.

[Mark Mitchell]

Yeah, we do pretty well.

[Tim Pool]

They've been called very biased for the right though. But they've been correct.

[Mark Mitchell]

Yeah, that happens.

[Tim Pool]

Should be interesting. Elad is joining us. White House correspondent.

[Elad Eliyahu]

Hey, good evening everybody. I am a lot Eliyahu, White House correspondent here at Tim cast. Happy to be covering the White House. Happy to be here tonight. Ian Mustache.

[Ian Crossland]

Looking fresh.

[Tim Pool]

Let me just say real quick, the, the anger from the left and the corporate press that a lot simply asked a couple of questions in the White House. I. It is, is, I don't know, delicious. Their tears sustain me.

[Ian Crossland]

It is a paradigm.

[Elad Eliyahu]

Hopefully more tears to come.

[Ian Crossland]

So, yeah, what a story, man. They're going to make movies and write books about this time in history. So do your best and be one of those great memorable heroic characters in the story of your life and ours. I'm Ian Crossland. Happy to be here. Phil labonte.

[Phil Labonte]

Hello everybody. My name is Phil Levante. I'm the lead singer of the heavy metal band all that Remains. I'm an anti communist and counter revolutionary. Let's get into it.

[Tim Pool]

Here we go. Ladies and gentlemen, from the post Millennial Liberation Day. Trump announces reciprocal tariffs on every nation. 25% tariffs on every foreign made auto. This is massive. Let's play this clip.

[Donald Trump]

April 2, 2025 will forever be remembered as the day American industry was reborn, the day America's destiny was reclaimed, and the day that we began to make America wealthy again. Going to make it wealthy, good and wealthy. For decades our country has been looted, pillaged, raped and plundered by nations near and far, both friend and foe alike. American steelworkers, auto workers, farmers and skilled craftsmen. We have a lot of them here with us today. They really suffered gravely. They watched in anguish as foreign leaders have stolen our jobs, foreign cheaters have ransacked our factories, and foreign, foreign scavengers have torn apart our once beautiful American dream. We had an American dream that you don't hear so much about. You did four years ago and you are now, but you don't too often and for many years and decades even you didn't hear too much about. Our country and its taxpayers have been ripped off for more than 50 years. But it is not going to happen anymore. It's not going to happen. In a few moments, I will sign a historic executive order instituting reciprocal tariffs on countries throughout the world. Reciprocal. That means they do it to us and we do it to them. Very simple. Can't get any simpler than that. This is one of the most important days, in my opinion, in American history. It's our declaration of economic independence. For years, hardworking American citizens were forced to sit on the sidelines as other nations got rich and powerful, much of it at our expense. But now it's our turn to prosper and in so doing, use trillions and trillions of dollars to reduce our taxes and pay down our national debt. And it will all happen very quickly. With today's action, we are finally going to be able to make America great again. Greater than ever before.

[Tim Pool]

So I'll show you some of those reciprocal tariffs that we have. I think we have it right here. And so this is what they've presented. You can see that they say tariffs charged to the US including currency manipulation and trade barriers. And they've listed it for each country. Madagascar 93%. The US will give a discounted reciprocal tariff of 47. Now, men on the left have started claiming things like this. James Si. I'm not sure if he's actually. I don't know who he is. What wisdom of the crowd says a fast company. Is that where he's at? Okay, so he's a leftist. Atlantic. It's important to understand the tariff rates the foreign countries are supposedly charging us are just made up numbers. South Korea, with which we have a trade agreement, is not charging a 50% tariff on US exports, nor is the EU charging a 39% tariff, which he then says he figured out where these fake tariff rates come from. They didn't actually calculate tariff rates plus non tariff barriers. They said that instead for every country, they just took our trade deficit with that country and divided by the country's export to us. So we have $17.9 billion trade deficit with Indonesia. Its exports to us are 28 billion. 17.9 28 equals 64%, which Trump claims is the tariff rate Indonesia is charging us. What extraordinary nonsense this is. I don't think you need to look too deeply into it. Trump is signing tariffs because there are trade manipulations. That's a simple way you can put it. We also have this banger of a clip from Donald Trump, but likewise an.

[Donald Trump]

Old fashioned term that we use, groceries. I use it on the Campaign. It's such an old fashioned term, but a beautiful term. Groceries.

[Tim Pool]

It.

[Donald Trump]

So it says a bag with different things in it. Groceries went through the roof and I campaigned on that. I talked about the word groceries for a lot.

[Tim Pool]

It's a bag with different things in it. I didn't realize that was an old, an old fashioned term. But all right.

[Mark Mitchell]

He may not have seen a bag of groceries for a long time. Who knows?

[Tim Pool]

I gotta be honest, that's probably it. Trump hasn't seen groceries. He thinks it's old fashioned because the last time we went to the store and actually filled the bag was when he was a little kid.

[Ian Crossland]

I just pictured a big brown paper bag filled up that rectangle with celery sticking out the top. You can tell.

[Tim Pool]

Or a baguette if you're in France. I'm down. I looked at my, my stock portfolio today and I started laughing. I'm, I'm, it's down. You know what I mean? It's been down, but I think, you know, I don't, I don't know how I feel about global tariffs to this degree. Tariffs on various products I think is, I think are generally good and I'm generally a fan of tariffs. So I say let's roll. I don't know.

[Phil Labonte]

What do you guys think as far, I mean, so if this is a successful policy, we're not going to know for a long time. The goal is to return manufacturing, a manufacturing base in the United States. I think that that is extremely important. The fact that we don't have specifically things like semiconductors, like chips that you need to make any kind of modern computers, which is, is, is, you know, ubiquitous in, in military hardware and stuff. That kind of stuff has to be made in the United States. We can't allow a, you know, our military to be shut down because, you know, if China decides to take Taiwan or whatever, these kind of things happen. Like that is, that is national security. It's a national security imperative. We make plenty of food here. So the idea that you have to make, you know, we have to do tariffs for, for agriculture or something like that, I don't think that that's necessary. But the goal is to have, return a manufacturing base to the United States. And people have been complaining forever that, oh, you know, they ship jobs over seas, they ship jobs overseas. The only way you can get companies to bring, if I understand correctly, the only way you can get companies to bring manufacturing back to the US Is to do things like tariffs or get rid of minimum wage, get rid of unions. Get rid of the things that essentially provide a certain, a particular standard that the American workers used to.

[Tim Pool]

So do, do Americans even know what tariffs are?

[Mark Mitchell]

No, not at all. We just pulled on it not that long ago and the numbers were just completely, it's like, should we charge tariffs or not? It was like 33% yes, 33% no. And then everybody else was just, I don't, doesn't make sense. Not sure. But his messaging was on point because he talked about grievances, he talked about jobs, and nobody's. Listen, if you've got a stock portfolio, you're very likely a Harris voter, and this is something that he's been prepping people for.

[Tim Pool]

Well, you're saying Trump voters don't have stock portfolios.

[Mark Mitchell]

I'm just saying, looking at the demographic signals, older, higher educated, higher income, overwhelmingly went Biden Harris.

[Tim Pool]

Yeah.

[Mark Mitchell]

And so, I mean, Trump, it very much was a working class thing. And this election was about the, basically the economy in a way that previous elections, like, weren't even. We got, we asked, are you better off than you were four years ago? The typical question, the answer was like, 35%. Will today's children be better off than their parents? 22%. So just absolutely off the chart. Horrible numbers. And so I think this is one of the things that they're going to trust Trump on. Like, this is why they put him into office. And nothing that's happened so far has affected his numbers. So everybody's happy.

[Tim Pool]

He's, he's, it's the best polling of his political career.

[Mark Mitchell]

Yeah, he came in strong and he's got 50, 51% approval rating right now. I think it's just going to stay there. People know who Trump is. They've thrown everything at him. And listen, if anything that we've seen in the last two months isn't going to do it, I don't think this will either.

[Elad Eliyahu]

So I'm usually a free trade guy, so I usually do have a little bit of beef with these tariffs. But I think what Trump's real move here isn't to ultimately try to bring back manufacturing, because I also don't think tariffs would ultimately do that. I think Trump's trying to do an art of the wind style reduction of tariff from other countries back onto this. I believe he did this in his first term, too. Obviously these tariffs from other countries onto our economy isn't a good thing, but I feel like for a long time we justified it because our economy was so powerful. And to these countries with nascent, you know, different markets developing and want to protect their, I don't know, date market. I'm just making something up. They put up a high tariff to try to not get dominated by our very powerful market. And we accepted that because we used to buy out a lot of countries for their essentially allyship with us and we'd actually sell them or sell them arms and kind of have a different trade. But what I think the ultimate goal here, and we'll learn very soon if it works or not, is if these other countries remove their tariffs. I don't think this at all is a play to bring back manufacturing. And if it is, then I think it's actually not going to work.

[Phil Labonte]

So why do you say, why do you say that? Because that's, that's essentially the line that the administration said.

[Elad Eliyahu]

I think it's a popular thing to tell people like, hey, we're going to bring back the jobs. But at the end of the day, like even a 25% tariff wouldn't make companies competitive in America. Still, for a majority of things, I know we'd love to onshore semiconductor manufacturing here, but when the Taiwan semiconductor company tried to do it here, they ended up essentially calling the Americans workers lazy and, and not being able to keep up with their operations over there. So some societies are specialized to do things and it's very, it takes a long time to develop, for example, like a car manufacturing plant. These are huge capital investments initially takes 10 years plus to actually develop the field. And I think again, this is really more just a negotiating tactic. And it sounds nice though. Hey, we're going to bring back your, your jobs to Pennsylvania and one in Pennsylvania. But it'll be hard to make good on that promise. The Teamsters love it, though.

[Tim Pool]

I think you're right. Yeah. The, the cattle ranchers, Trump they posted about. I think you're right, Elon. In order for this to be effective, Trump needs a third term.

[Mark Mitchell]

Well, half of Republicans are game. We asked that.

[Tim Pool]

I, I got to be honest. Aside from a constitutional amendment, what is the actual reason honest question why we limit presidents to only two terms? Fdr, the because ethical reason he was bad. They kept voting for him.

[Phil Labonte]

It was just because they, they people decided that they didn't like the fact that he had three or whatever terms.

[Elad Eliyahu]

They, they said it, it seemed too much like dictatorship if somebody were to get, keep getting reelected. And I guess the idea is the same thing with like congressional term limits. Once you become a president for three or four terms, I feel like you are so powerful and you're able to Already accomplish so much and, and benefit from your legacy. And yeah, I think the cap, the idea of the. It was unofficial for since George Washington. The two. And then FDR broke it during obviously very intense times. I don't know if Trump's serious or just trying to stoke media attention when he suggests that.

[Phil Labonte]

I personally think that he's only, he's only trying to stoke media attention and also gives the, the progressive that really hate him. It gives him something to hate on him for. And it. So if it takes the attention off of, say, you know, the stock market or, you know, it, it basically, you know, moves along the news.

[Elad Eliyahu]

Have you guys pull tested a third term?

[Mark Mitchell]

Yeah, absolutely. We just asked not that long ago, we said, would you favor repealing the 22nd amendment so people know what it is, what we said in the question so somebody can run for another term again? I think it was in the 30s, but 52% of Republicans said, hell yeah.

[Tim Pool]

Wow.

[Mark Mitchell]

Yeah.

[Ian Crossland]

I wonder if they would have said that before November 4th of last year when Biden was president, because it means.

[Tim Pool]

Trump ran against Obama, which is where we're going next. But, yeah, if Trump does run for a third term, Obama's coming back.

[Ian Crossland]

Yeah, exactly. If Trump sets a precedent that it's okay, the next guy might run for.

[Tim Pool]

Four terms and it'll be, that's the real conspiracy. Trump is working for Obama and is going to say, I'm going to run, I'm going to do it again. That way Obama wins his third term and says the tradition is broken. So I just, I looked it up and there was a tradition of no more than two terms. It was considered honorable. And then FDR was like, I'm going to keep going. And then people kept voting for him because I guess, all right, there was a fear that what would end up happening is a president who could run for unlimited terms could use the power of the executive branch to stop any legitimate competition. Strongman basically then says, this guy's actually polling against me. Arrest him, charge him with whatever crime, and make my opponent this, this puppet. And you get what we see in other countries.

[Ian Crossland]

We would have for sure saw Obama third term. Obama, if that was the case in 2016, he would have won for sure.

[Mark Mitchell]

He was so popular.

[Ian Crossland]

What's that?

[Mark Mitchell]

It's kind of what Biden was, I.

[Elad Eliyahu]

Think Putin's been democratically elected, allegedly in Russia a few times since 99.

[Tim Pool]

And this is allegedly. This is basically the argument if you can run indefinitely and you have no honor like fdr, you're just going to Keep running even though you're supposed to stop. You can just constantly be up against awful candidates that you prop up. Then you get the DNC and the RNC teaming up and they say, we all have a shared agenda. It'll be your guy this time and we're going to put up the worst candidate imaginable. So your guy wins as often as he wants to. What ended up happening, though? The two term 22nd amendment didn't actually stop. What happens, what ends up happening is the DNC and the RNC get together and then say, this time our guy, next time your guy. But we agree they'll do the exact same things. Yeah, Obama's going to claim to be anti war, but he's in a bunch of kids deal. That's how.

[Mark Mitchell]

And that's funny how it only applies to the executive branch and not the legislative branch. Oh, they can stay in. However, you know, they're not going to accumulate power. They're not going to accumulate corruption.

[Ian Crossland]

Yeah, the power. The accumulated power. Literally, like the connections, the people you know that will do things for you because of who you are, your position, and they know, if they know you're going to be there for a long time, it's like, dude, let's, let's make a deal, bro. You got me 10 years down the line. Let's go.

[Tim Pool]

I'd like to show you. We'll jump to this next story. The economic developments in the tariff war. The Wall Street Journal published this a month ago. Tariff war risks sinking world into new Great Depression. International Chamber of Commerce warns the world economy could face a crash similar to the Great depression of the 1930s, followed by. TRUMP says tariffs could have stopped the Great Depression. Trump has found a bonkers new defense for his extreme tariffs. Well, people like Trump and if a group a, an empanelled group of experts say, dare I say the tariffs are bad? And then Trump, Trump goes, you're wrong. Tariffs are good. People are going to be like Trump. You know, I'm sick of the credentialist class.

[Ian Crossland]

Oh, for sure. You got to follow the real information. That's the most important thing. Tiffany Cianci was on the show last week. If you haven't seen her work, she's here tomorrow. She'll be here tomorrow. She's great. And she was basically showing like, oh, expect another depression coming, like 2008. She believes there's about to be a collapse, economic collapse. They might use the tariffs as the scapegoat, but that people have been packaging. Gosh, I wish I could remember exactly how she's describing a packaging like mortgages. It might be another mortgage scandal. It's not a mortgage this time.

[Phil Labonte]

It's in. I don't remember the exact, the details but it wasn't mortgages. It was, it was retail. Look, there's a lot of retail.

[Ian Crossland]

Yeah, she'll be back to securities.

[Mark Mitchell]

Cmbs. Yeah. What are their commercial mortgage backed securities? I've heard that as well and I've also heard a lot about municipalities levering up and that stuff getting repackaged and things that get sold back to pensions.

[Phil Labonte]

Same principle as the mortgage backed security though. The problem is that it's bad debt that was repackaged as good debt and.

[Mark Mitchell]

Super high leverage in 08.

[Ian Crossland]

It was like yo, the economy is about to experience a great depression, you guys, we need to bail them out by printing a crapload trillions of dollars whatever to pay Fannie Mae, Freddie Ma Loan Agency Co. Pay them back.

[Phil Labonte]

Not only that, whatever they, they, they were, they were, they were doing quantitative, quantitative easing easing for a decade. They were. Interest rates were at zero for 10 years to prevent a recession from 2008 until essentially I think it was like, like when Donald Trump got into, it was like 2017 is when they actually started to, to raise interest rates a little bit and it would, and it was all because every time they tried to, tried to raise rates the stock market would tank.

[Mark Mitchell]

This is a, this is a direct line to what you just talked about and Trump, because that's essentially corp. Corporate welfare. I actually ran, I went to Fred and looked at some statistics and I looked at the median income of America like just the average person in the middle of America. And I put a ratio of their per capita total government debt over that and the number was like relatively flat at like 0.5 up until 2008, up until the bailout and quantitative easing. And so you have this situation where companies have been disconnected from financial, you know, downsides. Yeah, all these MBA class people are getting all these perks and free smoothies and stuff like that. And that number went from 0.5 to 2.5 just over the last 15 years. So your average American is 5 times less capable of paying down their per capita share of the debt. That's why Trump's in office.

[Phil Labonte]

And all that money that went into the economy, it was being loaned at 0% or whatever. Wealthy people were taking that money and they were, they were taking loans at super, super low interest rates and then buying stock with it. So that stock had a much higher return because the stock market, they didn't want to see the stock market tank. So they, so they kept pumping money in and people were borrowing money at super low rates and buying stock. So if you went and, and had, you had 10 years of, essentially if you had some money and you had good credit, and I'm, you know, I'm talking about, you know, a couple million dollars. You get, you know, a loan for, take a million dollars, dump it in the stock market. A couple years later, you have, you know, a million and a half, 2 million, or whatever.

[Tim Pool]

Rich people like when the market crashes for a variety of reasons, they're insulated from it. They're wealthy so they can buy what they need when they, when they, when they need it. The price of milk and eggs doesn't faze them. But here's the best part. If you take out $100,000 loan to buy a house, let's say it's 20 years ago and you make $100,000 a year, let's say you saved up 100% of your money. Let's just say, let's say you worked for one year and you saved 100 grand. But you finance the house. You say, I want a hundred thousand dollar loan. You put the hundred grand you saved actually into the stock market where its value goes up with inflation. As the market, depending on how the market operates, you can short, so they're insulated from this. But inflation in general, or a market crash can be manipulated so that the money they have through shorts or through just general stock and inflation goes up. The value of the house stays at a hundred thousand dollars or the debt, I'm sorry. And as the, the dollar inflates, the amount of money the average person has to get paid goes up. That means the, the amount of labor you owe to pay back the dead in the house goes down over time. The US does this with bonds. That's what quantitative easing basically does. Hey, take a loan from us, the US government says $1 billion, $1 billion can buy you 100, you know, widget factories. Then the quantitative fees inflate the currency. And now that billion dollars can only buy 50 widget factories. So the loan is bad, but the US still has the, still has them under their, under their financing. Right. So I'm, I'm butchering this. But the general idea is if you are wealthy when inflation occurs, the debt you have is the number looks the same to the average person, but to the wealthy person, they're not calculating dollars, they're calculating buying power. That's how it plays out. So for for the working class person, that house now is. And here's the best part too. That hundred thousand dollars you owe, the buying power is, is diminished. So that means if everything becomes more expensive, you can make that money. You can make more money than that easier because everybody else is. But now the value of the house has gone up to 300. And the working class person, they're looking at dollars, like dollars. They can't buy that house because it went from 100 to 300. There was a story I was reading on Reddit where a guy said he was saving up to buy something, a tablet or a computer. And then after he finally got two thirds of the way to the savings, and he was like, one more month, the price jumped on Amazon and he was like, I can't get it, I can't buy it. It's. It's nuts. That's what it's like for the working class when these things happen. But the rich, they don't care.

[Ian Crossland]

The rich, when they. The only time the rich suffer. Well, I know about the only time. But the big thing that will cause the rich to suffer in that scenario you're talking about is if they're borrowing and they're investing on margin, which is what you're talking about, Phil, where you take a loan out and then you invest with that loan, assuming that it's going to return. If that stock market crashes while your loan is in that, you lose it, and then you owe money back to the bank, you can't afford to pay back, and they start taking your stuff. And that's what happened in 1929. People were defaulting on their, on.

[Tim Pool]

They were, they were, they were investing on margin, though.

[Ian Crossland]

On their margins. Yeah, they're taking out loans to invest. And then when the market. So what happened in 08, they're like, crap. We need to make sure that that market does not collapse because everyone on margin right now will go under. So they just print a bunch of money, which they couldn't do in 29. They didn't really like. This is. I've heard that the Great Depression was that the federal reservists used that as an excuse to take like, you need us so that we make sure you'll never, your stock market will never crash again. You can't allow just the government and real money because it's too risky. That was their.

[Tim Pool]

You know what, you know what Trump's doing with this? I think all the stories are just R BS I think the Democrats are getting whipped into a frenzy by saying Trump's Policies are dumb. I think that the Republicans saying no tariffs, this, tariffs that are missing the big picture. Trump with this global tariff move is intending to stab the liberal economic order in the heart. One of the principal components of the liberal economic order was create a network of international trade agreements that make it very difficult to engage in international conflict. And for whatever reason you want to, you want, you want to subscribe to or prescribe. Donald Trump doing this is basically saying we will cut all of those ties if we must. Now maybe it's for the betterment of this country, whatever, whatever it is, but this is a nuclear bomb on what we would refer to as the liberal economic order, the deep state or whatever it is.

[Ian Crossland]

Exactly. Obama was going to sign this thing called the Trans Pacific Partnership, which you guys may have heard of. And there's this thing in it. What's that? The TPP 2012ish. There's a sector, there's a thing in it called the, the investor state dispute settlement clause. So if you had an investor in a country, the country being the state, it would give the power of the corporation to sue the country if their people were discriminating against their product. And it was in order to give, essentially to give Malaysian oil companies the power to sue the United States government if we wouldn't buy their oil or something. And then we as a taxpayer would have to pay this Malaysian oil company. Obama was signing that and, and Trump is eviscerating that monster for better or worse. Like you said, Tim, it could be, could have horrific, you know, geopolitical instability. Instability. But it's like they say, you're going to feel short term pain and well.

[Tim Pool]

I'll put it this way, if the liberal economic order was a bunch of well reasoned Captain Picards, I'd have no problem with it. But it's not. It's a bunch of crackpot DEI communists.

[Mark Mitchell]

And robber barons.

[Tim Pool]

And robber barons. So it's, it's not an issue of the method of trying to build a sustainable global network of trade that diminishes conflict. On the, on paper that seems nice. But then you realize a bunch of DEI race communists are trying to utilize this system. Maybe it's because the control went, got out of control or whatever, but I'm not so interested in living under the boot of a bunch of psychotic communists.

[Mark Mitchell]

I think this is about, he's signaling, it's about jobs. I think that's smart. I think there's going to be short term economic pain and he knows that and he's probably trying to get through it as fast as possible. But I came out of retail and I don't know if this stat is still accurate, but I heard as much as 95% of all SKUs on the non grocery part of your average Walmart or China. And we know what Amazon is doing with China. Essentially people list a new product and it's been accused that very rapidly they'll offshore, they'll create their own version, they'll undercut them. And so I think there's this aspect of wealth and power concentration and to make it even more perverse, like bringing it back to Bernanke, I worked in B.C. and a lot you'd see these massive venture capital overvaluations because assets were trying to seek a return. So it got very risky and I saw all these companies that had no value getting bid up into like multi unicorn status. And not, that's not just rich people's investment money coming out of their pockets. A lot of it's like pension funds and stuff like that. That money trickled into essentially Silicon Valley workers, H1BS MBAs, bank accounts in very massive amounts. So you have potentially the pension money for like public employees going to create. And then you get this aspect of. There was a lot of best practice sharing coming out of technology companies into the major corporates, a lot of cross pollinization of these ideas. And I think it's one of the engines that really built like woke into the entire Fortune 500 essentially because what Silicon Valley was doing was cool. Everybody had to become a tech company. And then it got this political aspect to it and it all stems back from central planning, a focus on maintaining economic stability. Meanwhile the middle class gets gutted and all their jobs get stolen.

[Tim Pool]

I just want to actually let's, let's do this first. I want to, I want to pull up this story from media. The Democrats response to Trump's tariffs. It's recession day. Hakeem Jeffries hammers Donald Trump's liberation Day warns economy about to crater really says we were told that grocery costs were going to be going down on day one of Trump's presidency. Costs aren't going down in America. They're going up essentially. Not true. A lot of things have gone down and the Trump tariffs are going to make things more costly in the United States. House Republicans, Senate Republicans and Donald Trump haven't done a thing to lower the cost of living in this country. Not a single bill, not a single executive order, blah, blah, blah. That's technically incorrect. But I just want to pull up because you know you mentioned Mark, Fred, here's the M1 money stock. Take a look at 2020. So this was during Trump's term. And then take a look at the money supply. So this was largely due this spike. When they basically said savings accounts are now checking accounts, the money supply exploded. Meanwhile, economic activity collapsed. So this is the COVID era. If you want to talk about what Democrats had been doing over the past four years, fine. But they've got no, no leg to stand on right now as Donald Trump is making moves only two months in and they had four years and only expanded and exacerbated the problem.

[Ian Crossland]

The Doge thing, I mean that's the Trump's big attempt at righting the American economy is Doge. And it's like if you don't want to see that, if you're not interested in believing that that's possible, that's a form of cognitive dissonance. It really is an attempt to stabilize our deficit to zero. Ideally maybe it's 2 trillion, it'll be 1 trillion next year and then maybe we can get it down that we're actually our death, our, that our debt is going down. That that might be possible. That's the, that's the biggest plan is that reduction in corruptive spending, other stuff. I don't know if Jeffries is pointing out he hasn't like made any big moves with, with you know, making car manufacturing cheaper or whatever. It's just a more holistic, I think approach he's taking right now.

[Tim Pool]

Let me, let me just say to the point, Democrats opened up the borders, the country was flooded with low skilled labor that not only was displacing people's jobs, they started using tax funds to supply these people with resources. Americans did not have this strained the economic system reduced the Americans buying power because I know most, the challenge with these issues is that, you know, as we already discussed, most Americans don't know what tariffs are. So most people don't understand that. If you have, let's say you have a small town with only $100, that's all there is, a hundred dollars. That means your economic activity and the value of those dollars is tied to that finite scarce number. If someone comes in and adds another hundred, you do not double your corn or your homes. You actually just increase the amount of trade units which makes the buying power of the other people cut in half when they start giving illegal immigrants free housing and government money. What happens to you at home is that your milk prices go up, your egg prices go up. Demand for these things go up, but the volume of them does not change. So the prices start rising. This is what Democrats did to you over the past four years. Trump's been in for two months, and they won't shut up. And they're acting like, you know what I love about Hakeem Jeffrey statement? He said prices were going up, and Trump did anything about it. It's like, oh, wow, geez. So the prices went up under your watch? Yeah, they're up because of you. And it's like, imagine a guy punches you in the face, and then when you call the cops and the cops are walking up the door is like, look, that cop hasn't done anything yet. How come. How come you're bleeding from the nose? And it's like, because you punched me, dude. That's Democrats.

[Phil Labonte]

Well, I mean, that's. That's typical politics. The left is always the Democrats. Well, the party out of power are always going to blame the party in power for whatever negative thing is happening, no matter how long it's been. Like, as soon as Trump, the day when Trump was saying, on day one, these things are going to happen, and on day two, they were like, look, Trump's a failure already. He said this was going to happen, etc. And you kind of expect that when it comes to, like, the political arena. But it doesn't change the fact that the Democrats have done nothing at all to provide for any of the things that Trump is trying to, you know, address here. And furthermore, they're the party that has forever said they are the party of the working class, they are the party of unions, they are the party of this, the party of that. The reason that unions got behind Trump is because these. They believe these things will be good for the working class in America.

[Elad Eliyahu]

So I really think there's only one thing that could slow down the President Trump administration, and that's if he hits on a recession. Obviously, allegedly, you're not even supposed to say the word because it'll encourage recession to happen. But there's a lot of mitigating circumstances right now that tariffs might add to a more turbulent situation. So, for example, in the Red Sea, Red World trade is being interrupted right now by the Houthis. We have our stock market that's extremely overvalued right now, particularly the Magnificent Seven, or what have you. Extremely overvalued. Now we're throwing the tariffs on top of this. When a time we're seeing political geopolitical conflicts around the world, I think if a recession starts happening is what could get people to turn on Trump and prevent him from accomplishing these other things. So I just really hope he knows what he's doing with these tariffs. And I hope to see these actually be rescinded in a few months. When these other countries take back their tariffs, I think that'll calm down the market a lot and we won't fall into something like that. But again, there's a lot of mitigating circumstances right now that could push us push our economy into the gutter, and that's never good for anybody in office.

[Mark Mitchell]

I think we're reaching the extent of the professional class's ability to define things the way they want them to be defined, because I can tell you he's been talking about tariffs for a long time. The stock market's been going up and down a long time. I think these numbers framed late last week. How do you rate President Trump on the issue of the economy? 30% excellent. 18% good. I think it was only 33% poor. So that's really great marks. That's higher.

[Elad Eliyahu]

I guess what scared me, you heard about the auto tariff tax. So I guess if you're going to be buying a car in the near future, you're going to be hit with what, a 10, 15% price?

[Mark Mitchell]

Well, I'm just saying it's not affecting his numbers. And I think what people have invested in is a major economic rebalancing that's going to break some eggs. Like if elon is cutting $1 trillion out of the deficit, that's like 3.6% of GDP. So you can't not have a recession if he's going to fulfill his mission. And then on top of that, I mean, listen, it's just the stock market doesn't define the economy anymore.

[Phil Labonte]

And the stock market really doesn't hit the middle class and, and working people because most people that have stocks are, you know, upper to.

[Elad Eliyahu]

I think most people don't actually. I forgot what the numbers were. Most people don't actually have much or if anything above like $10,000 in savings.

[Phil Labonte]

And then I think when the markets, you know, the trading at like 26 times earnings is what it's been trading at.

[Tim Pool]

There's.

[Phil Labonte]

It needs a correction. Yeah, this is something that actually a healthy market will do it. Normally historically it's something like 16 times earnings or something like bunch of companies.

[Mark Mitchell]

Need to go bankrupt. Needs to be more velocity there. Needs.

[Elad Eliyahu]

But that happening under the Trump administration.

[Phil Labonte]

Would be horrible for the Trump administration. For the.

[Elad Eliyahu]

We need would be very bad for.

[Tim Pool]

We need a grand scale universal Correction. No more. Here's what I want to stop. I want you all to hear me, please, because I know you agree. No longer do I want to hear stories about a BuzzFeed reporter getting $90,000 a year. No. No longer do I want to hear about unemployed, an NGO making million dollars a year doing legal work in Loudoun County, Virginia. I want to hear about pay raises for firefighters, pay raises for people who work manufacturing jobs. And so the funny thing is, as Mark, you mentioned that Harris voters tend to be, you know, higher income and things like that. The media industry is overwhelmingly liberal. Academia is overwhelmingly liberal. These people wouldn't know what a callous was if you showed them your own hands. They would just think you were deformed because certainly that's not a real thing that happens to people. I would like to see a grand correction where everything realigns back to those who do hard work are successful in this country. The man who is buying a nice filet mignon with herb butter is a guy who builds things for a living and works hard and earns that reward. Not some uppity liberal moron who's never worked a real job in their life and they're an aide in Congress or they work for a media publication where their job is to literally complain on camera to millions of people and they make exorbitant sums of money. Could you imagine someone like that? These kind of people, they're permanent children. They probably wear the same clothes every day. They wear beanies everywhere they go. They skateboard at 40 years old. The people who are making millions of dollars should be first responders, firefighters, police, servicemen and women. This is the kind. Now, that's a grandiose view, but I'll put it simply, and I know there was a joke in there. My point is, when I hear that you've got these liberal journalists at these publications making six figures and a guy who used to work at an assembly line for auto manufacturing lost his job because they sold. They sold the factories to Mexico. I'm like that guy. He's building cars that we need. He should be feeding his family. He should be having kids. He did everything right. Yet it is the uppity well to do liberal working for a company where they produce nothing of value who is reaping the wards of the system.

[Mark Mitchell]

I'll go one step further. It's not the liberal. It's the person with absolutely no moral rudder who's willing to suck up to a game and a system in order to get ahead without considering the moral ramifications here's this is what people signed up for with Trump. And I'll tell you just the mass deportation plan, massively deflationary, that's baked into, that's what he's going after. That's baked into his platform. And that's one of the best things that you can do to get those people increased wages. And guess what? It's not going to happen. So I'm calling on Congress today. Republicans like give us a vote on E Verify. Let's get E Verified. It's overwhelmingly popular. The numbers like 60 to 70% every time we ask. It could go a long way to self deportations. We don't have to have Tom Homan bust all these people's doors down. We can have these people leave immediately today. And what I heard from somebody I know, I trust within the beltway is that it will never happen because Republicans love their slave labor.

[Tim Pool]

Yep. Well, the, the maga party seems to be a bit different though. Maybe we'll see something change with Donald Trump.

[Elad Eliyahu]

Well, I think in Trump's speech, even today he was talking about more legal immigration. I don't know how that plays into this. So never mind on that.

[Mark Mitchell]

Actually increase immigration is also astoundingly unpopular. Like Even numbers below 30% of Democrats want an increased level of legal.

[Elad Eliyahu]

Even among Democrats.

[Mark Mitchell]

Yes. Really?

[Ian Crossland]

You mentioned that we're. And that this is a deflationary tactic to remove people, citizens, not citizens, people from the country. And I agree, we're defl. So the difference between deflation and recession, because I feel like we've been in a recession for since 2008, it's just on paper the number's going up. In reality the value is going down. So like it feels like our value has been receding. And what is it like now we're doing a controlled burn like this.

[Phil Labonte]

This deflation means deflation is not like, not the same thing as a recession.

[Ian Crossland]

Deflation literally means you're taking money out of the monetary supply. Like you're reducing the number of dollars zeros on the book. Basically, that's deflation.

[Phil Labonte]

I mean now the buying power goes.

[Ian Crossland]

Down in a recession that's more uncontrolled. That's like, yo, things are happening out of our control.

[Mark Mitchell]

Recession is very Specifically, I think two consecutive quarters of negative nominal GDP growth. And if you zap 3.6% of GDP, which is government spending, by removing 1 trillion, like you're getting a recession on paper.

[Ian Crossland]

And they'll also inflate the value of GDP by having one guy dig a hole and Then they'll pay another guy to fill it back up and they'll be like, look, gross domestic product. That's not real. What do you call the opposite of recession? That's not real. Like progress.

[Mark Mitchell]

No economic activity.

[Ian Crossland]

Yeah. It's not productivity. But even though they'll call it that, so obviously that's been inflated, too.

[Elad Eliyahu]

Yeah.

[Ian Crossland]

I think it's time to just accept that we've been in a, in a recession for a long time and now we're trying to stem the bleeding. Bleeding being inflicted, the inflation that's been going on.

[Tim Pool]

Let's jump to this next story from cnn. Ladies and gentlemen, I have good news. If you are concerned about Trump's agenda getting through, if you are worried that Democrats will obstruct him, fear not for the Republicans. Nine of them have joined with Democrats to make sure Trump never wins because they believe that they deserve special DEI privileges. That's right. Nine Republicans teamed up with Democrats so that new, new mothers in Congress will be allowed to work remotely and vote outside of Congress, which is unconstitutional, I believe is despicable, and it is the epitome of dei. They are quite literally saying, instead of just resigning from Congress to take care of your family, they, their voices are a requirement the diversity in, in Congress. And because of their different lived experiences as women, they require special rules that only apply to them. Speaker Johnson suffers defeat as GOP rebels tank effort to block remote voting for new parents. Johnson's pissed. He's saying instead of Congress trying to combat these judges and help Trump's agenda, they are now jammed up because Rep. Anna Paulina Luna believes she had, because she had a child, she should get special privileges in Congress. I'm extremely offended by this. I believe that if you want to be in Congress, either don't have kids for two years and if you want to have kids, simply resign. But here we are now jammed up, not working on getting through Trump's agenda after Republicans just lost the Supreme Court, Wisconsin. And there's a very real fear that the, the slim majority will be lost in 2027. This is what we get. Because 9 GOP decided they wanted to be Democrat Marxists people.

[Elad Eliyahu]

It's a privilege to be able to work in Congress. Therefore you should be there to fully do all of the parts of your job, and that includes voting in person. While some people can argue, oh, it's a person with a newborn, they just had a new family, let them be with their family, let them take maternity. And they also included paternity, by the way, leave in this as well. But let them take maternity leave, let them be with their child. The real issue here is that this also opens the door to have other people vote by proxy for whatever other reason. This is also so unnecessarily divisive at a time where Speaker Johnson only has something like what, a two seat majority right now, even with the two elections that just happened in Florida. Unnecessarily divisive. Trump's trying to pass this agenda, but now we're stuck going over stuff like this. The Democrats are taking advantage of Paulina Luna because I believe in the last Congress she had a child and it was annoying for her to bring her a child and come vote and she wanted to have the privilege of and the opportunity to vote by proxy. But between these nine Republicans and, and Massie last time voting against the cr, I don't understand why these Republicans cannot get on the same page to pass the Trump agenda. Please, guys.

[Phil Labonte]

Well, Massie's a different story. But when it comes to stuff like this, lining up with the Democrats to be like, you know, we need this specific, these carve outs for us for, because we have children. If you're going to become a public servant, you have to plan, you should have, you should expect to plan your life around that public service, whether it be Anna Paulina Luna having a baby or another congresswoman having a baby or, or when Pete Buddha Judge got, you know, became the Secretary of, of transportation and he decided to take what, a couple months off because he went out and he bought a baby.

[Mark Mitchell]

Right.

[Phil Labonte]

Like you can especially Buddha Judge, like, he could plan that far better than, than.

[Elad Eliyahu]

And neither parent actually had the baby.

[Phil Labonte]

Yeah, exactly. Like women, you know, maybe they can, they'll, they'll accidentally get pregnant or whatever. At least there's an excuse. Oh, well, we were, we weren't planning, but whatever. You should be responsible enough to be like, all right, I'm taking this time in my life to be a public servant, so I'm going to make sure that I don't get pregnant, that I don't have small children. It shouldn't be a big ask.

[Ian Crossland]

Or you let your constituents down and you don't show up for the vote. And they'll remember that when they vote against.

[Tim Pool]

Sorry, resign or resign.

[Ian Crossland]

If it was military command, which I kind of see Congress, I know they're civilians, but they're guiding the military economic force of the world. They should treat it like frontline military operations. They should be there like clockwork every day. They are needed on duty. They should be on duty. And I just, I mean I could maybe they could have a proxy come in and vote for them. No, like designate my assistant will be there on this day to vote for me in person. It's way better than doing it remote because you can.

[Elad Eliyahu]

I wonder what the real story here is because Representative Anna Paulina Luna usually hates the Democrats, I think former Freedom Caucus goers. So I think there might be something else here and or I think it's just interesting how Democrats are able to kind of pull on the heartstrings of some of these Republicans on issues that they have affinity with them on.

[Mark Mitchell]

Well, Democrats ubiquitously vote as a block and Republicans always seem like they can't ever do that. And I don't know all the details, I don't know the backstory. There might be something or might not. I don't really care that much about this issue but it's like why are we hearing about this and not a save act, not about doubtless bill to try and get rid of judicial overreach. I can tell you that voters, 65% of them love the idea of deporting violent gang bangers. They want this judge impeached by a 2 to 1 margin. And I'm not get the feel, getting the feeling from Congress that is def con one down there. So it's like if Republicans understand how existential this election was and the very beautiful gift that Donald Trump has given them which is a platform more popular than Republicans have ever been. If they can't get behind this and break a little sweat like that's what I'm concerned about. Hackers don't need much. Just one leaked password can potentially unlock a treasure trove of personal information leading to stress, pain and permanently wrecked credit. Don't be an easy target. Get protection by Aura Today Aura protects your identity, finances and family all in one powerful app. Get real time alerts, safeguard your accounts and block scams before they happen. If identity theft strikes, we help you recover. Stay [e-mail] Listen. That's a U R A.com Listen.

[Phil Labonte]

Yeah, indeed. It should be an easy, easy decision.

[Tim Pool]

Well, Democrats are communists and they're. I mean that in the sense of. Well, they're a culture. They abide by what the group tells them to abide by. Republicans do not. And so you end up with Democrats winning because all it takes is a couple of Republicans to pull stupid garbage stunts like this. And I'm going to say it again. The Republicans are supposed to be the party of family, recognizing the differences between men and women. And here we are now with nine Republicans being like, nah, women get special rules. This is. This is the. This is what happens to this country every single time. It comes down to the question of duty and responsibility. This country shifts towards giving privileges to special classes instead of equality. And this is what they're asking for right now. The Democrats and the GOP are trying to get special privileges based on. On class. Based on a class of identifiable persons. That's. That's illegal. You should. You should not be able to say because you're a woman, you get to vote remote or by proxy. I'm offended by this.

[Phil Labonte]

Yeah, it's dumb.

[Ian Crossland]

This is maybe even a tangent, but, like, it used to be. I've brought this up before the show. The founding fathers, the first people that served in Congress were all men. If there was kids being born, they were at home with the mom. Then at some point, women came in and you have to accommodate for they might have a baby. How are they gonna lead the military if they're the baby? They have the baby on their arm. And obviously Congress isn't directly leading the military. They're just funding it and deciding how it gets funded. And they're supposedly the ones that authorize war. Not.

[Mark Mitchell]

It's.

[Ian Crossland]

It's very important that they're there and available for duty. So.

[Phil Labonte]

Yeah, I mean, especially considering how infrequently they actually have to be there. What were you saying? There was 10 legislative days in.

[Mark Mitchell]

10 legislative days in April. We just lost three of them because they. I don't know why, but they kicked the next vote into next week. And I'll tell you again, I just don't know why it came up, because my understanding is that almost every vote, they know what day it's going to be. They can plan around it.

[Tim Pool]

They, you know, so hire a babysitter.

[Mark Mitchell]

Yeah, exactly.

[Ian Crossland]

Get a place in D.C. they all.

[Phil Labonte]

Have places in D.C. yeah, they just.

[Mark Mitchell]

Got to rotate our ship.

[Tim Pool]

It's because Congress is a bunch of lazy pieces of garbage. They are lazy people who don't want to do their jobs. The real job of a member of Congress is to fundraise. They get on the phone all day and they say, give me money, give me money, give me money. And then they never actually do their jobs. The only thing they do outside of give me money is they go into the. They go on the floor, they stand at their podium and say, rebel, rebel, Rebel, Rebel, rebel. Can you give me the clip so I can post it on social media so I can make money? That's Congress. None of Them do their jobs. It's like there's like five I get.

[Ian Crossland]

And maybe, yeah, I can see the value of agility of government. Like the sig, they were doing military strike on signal. It's easier than, hey, let's all report to the defense. Let's all go to the Pentagon at 4pm so we can sit down, talk about something for eight minutes and then get up and leave. And then we'll have our battle plans in order. They just do it on signal. They can do instant. So much quicker. Great for military, because you're remote. So there's a value to quickly being able to get a vote out. It's just. It just. I don't know, it doesn't seem like a secure tactic, but I'm open to, you know, the evolution of governance. It doesn't have to always be in person in the same building. It doesn't. You know, maybe if it's life and death and you have to do things quickly, maybe you have to go remote.

[Phil Labonte]

I like the idea of the representatives having to be there to cast the vote. And I think that they should be there to cast the vote. Like, I don't think that they should be allowed to remote vote. I don't think they should be allowed to have someone else vote for them. You have your job. Just like Tim said, the vast majority of their job is fundraising. Go to DC when there are votes because they're scheduled, you know when they are. You can make arrangements. Go to DC when the votes are, when you're supposed to be there to vote. That's not. That's the whole point of your job is you're supposed to be able to vote on bills, make sure that you're there. That's not too much of an ask.

[Mark Mitchell]

If this bill gonna be three of them this year.

[Phil Labonte]

Yeah, right.

[Tim Pool]

Maybe, maybe we should just get. Look, we've got Congress that won't do their jobs. We have judges that are acting like they have more power than the President. I think it's simple. We just simply abolish the Article 2 and 3 of the Constitution.

[Ian Crossland]

The United States as an organization, or.

[Tim Pool]

Actually, I think Articles one and three.

[Ian Crossland]

You know what? And it's a funny thing to hear somebody say in jest, but I bet there's people thinking that there are people that are so frustrated, they're like, all.

[Tim Pool]

Right, it's articles one and three. Silly me. Of course.

[Ian Crossland]

That's why it makes more sense.

[Phil Labonte]

Article one is Congress. Article three is the judiciary.

[Tim Pool]

Yep. Just gone. All. All powers vested in one man. The President, his family and his kids.

[Ian Crossland]

You know, and it used to be like that. A government would have, it's called the monarchy rules. It would get to a point where people couldn't take anymore and they just shred the whole thing and start a new one.

[Phil Labonte]

You've got them where you end up hanging the, the king too.

[Ian Crossland]

Yeah, but we've got a system where you can revolutionize the governance within the governance itself. You don't have to like tear it down to rebuild. Ideally, you know, you can break pieces and parts off with amendments and, you know, revocation of acts and things like that. So that's the, that's the.

[Mark Mitchell]

You guys talk orange lot. Monarchy.

[Tim Pool]

No, we're joking. Yeah, but we've got a rogue, We've got a dysfunctional Congress and a rogue judiciary.

[Mark Mitchell]

Yeah.

[Tim Pool]

So let's just, let's just, let's just zoom out. According to Democrats, the executive branch has gone rogue. According to literally everyone. Congress is dysfunctional. It doesn't work. And according to the right, the judiciary. No, just the one person. And then according to the right, the judiciary is whacked out of its mind. Well, actually the Democrats agree with the Supreme Court being whacked out of its mind.

[Mark Mitchell]

I'll add one more. We have 2 million unelected people that think they control the government and they're just leeching off of our economy and everybody else and they're.

[Tim Pool]

Who are those people?

[Mark Mitchell]

The fifth column, the deep state, the bureaucracy. That's really the problem. And so listen, my politics are. I'm a pollster, I believe in public opinion. I think democracy makes sense for that. But this, there's aspects of this that doesn't work and it needs to change. And I think society will correct the change. It's just a question of how. And so what I've been following is signs of potentially, I'm a believer of the fourth turning idea of how this is developing. And history tells you say, yeah, we pulled on it a lot. I'm worried about really. Yeah, we've pulled on civil War. But I think one of the big signs, I think that we're in this is the complete flip of 18 to 39 year olds who went from like 30 to 40 points. Harris just, you know, a decade ago or Hillary Clinton to now, Donald Trump actually had a 60% favorability rating with 18 to 39 year olds like a month ago. Like they are now the highest approving people of Trump. And they're also the most likely to say that the country's in the right direction. So the Problem is, is for forth turning. Right. After a crisis, you have a very high need for order and a high supply and demand of order because you just fixed a major problem like World War II over time because things are good. It's a golden age. The demand for order decreases, but you still have order.

[Tim Pool]

Yeah.

[Mark Mitchell]

Then it all comes falling apart. And so what we have now is maximum demand for order and zero supply.

[Tim Pool]

Let me jump to this tweet real quick so we can carry this conversation. We've got this tweet from Colin Rugg. He says, alec Baldwin declares the US Is in a pre Civil War culture. I'm going to pause right away. Alec Baldwin made a very calm statement on social media. Conservatives are insulting and deriding him. This is the stupidest thing I've ever heard. You can rag on the guy for his attitude, you can rag on him for being a hothead for his politics. But to say that he declares something, he says, I watched a show and they said that we were in pre Civil War culture. And I kind of think that's the case. And then you've got. The actor took a break from being bossed around by his wife. I get it, you don't like the guy. But we can. We can listen to what people we disagree with have to say. Here's what he said.

[Donald Trump]

Lent my hand to pick up the.

[Tim Pool]

Remote and turn on my television.

[Donald Trump]

Sorry.

[Tim Pool]

And watch Ken Burns famous, famous miniseries. And, boy, you can see now that we are in a pre Civil War culture.

[Phil Labonte]

Now.

[Elad Eliyahu]

They describe things back then. Politically, there are profound differences, of course.

[Tim Pool]

In terms of just history and age and, you know, what life was like.

[Donald Trump]

Back then, and cotton and slavery and.

[Tim Pool]

Lincoln and Robert E. Lee and so forth. There's just so many. This incredible story.

[Donald Trump]

Awful that this country had to go through that. Awful.

[Tim Pool]

But as a story, it's just overwhelmingly powerful and fascinating. But I look at the politics of it, of where people are in this.

[Elad Eliyahu]

Country today, in the division and how they're holding fast.

[Tim Pool]

And no one's going to falter.

[Mark Mitchell]

No one's going to break or compromise, and it's bad.

[Tim Pool]

He's not wrong. He said, I watched a series. I saw what it was like in the Civil War. We're in a pre Civil War culture. Both sides are dug in. Neither is going to back down. The fact that the response to him saying something that is just blank, a blanket statement about the current culture war is met with tribal derision, I think exemplifies exactly what he's saying. But what he's actually trying to say is we're in a period called civil strife, one that I did. I did not make this up, though I talk about it quite a bit. I'm curious, you mentioned that you've polled on this issue of civil war. What are you seeing?

[Mark Mitchell]

This is what separates us because we just don't do the election horse races. We're actually concerned about, like, the future of America and how people think, because the Overton window moves all over the place on all kinds of topics and it's been weaponized, especially with all these infowbeps. So the net effect of the Biden administration was to take the question, how likely is it that a civil war will see a civil war in the next few years, from low 30s up to. The highest number that we ever saw was 43%.

[Tim Pool]

So that's a pretty big number during the Biden years. Before Biden, it was the 30s.

[Mark Mitchell]

Yep.

[Tim Pool]

And after Biden, it was in the 40s.

[Mark Mitchell]

43%.

[Tim Pool]

43.

[Mark Mitchell]

I couldn't find the 43% number. This one was like from April of last year. 16%. Very likely. 25%. Somewhat. Only 20% say not at all likely. And I mean, the Republicans are a majority say, yeah, 54%. So, you know, there was a.

[Tim Pool]

There was this poll that was done for each region. There was the Northeastern region, the the south, the Southwest. There was the Midwest, and there was the Pacific Northwest. They polled each region and. And by. By political alignment whether they wanted their region to secede to form its own country. And it was hilarious. In the Northeast, Democrats overwhelmingly said we should secede. In the South, Republicans overwhelmingly said we should secede. In the West, Pacific Northwest and West, Democrats overwhelmingly said we should secede. The only place that was independent and wanted secession was the Midwest. But I actually, it's fascinating where we are with AI these days because what I did was I actually pulled all of the numbers for each region, then normalized for population and created a nationwide breakdown of should our region in general secede from the rest of the country? And the sentiment was something like 2 to 1.

[Mark Mitchell]

Yes.

[Tim Pool]

Most people in this country believe that their region should be independent from the rest of the country. You see things like that, which are not so much about civil war, but about self determination. You see efforts to secede in general or break away from their states. You see the ongoing conflict. And then it's fascinating to me that somebody would look at what Alec Baldwin is saying and call him a moron.

[Mark Mitchell]

They're literally bleeding Kansas right now in Tesla dealerships. They're bleeding Tesla, like, this is how the Confederacy behaved. And, well, it wasn't.

[Tim Pool]

It wasn't the Confederacy. The bleeding Kansas. John Brown was an abolitionist. He brought his children to Kansas to murder people. And he's a hero. Abraham Lincoln arrested the Maryland legislature that was sympathetic to the Confederacy, arrested journalists, threatened to arrest a sitting Supreme Court justice and create a suspension of habeas corpus between Pennsylvania and D.C. he's a hero.

[Phil Labonte]

You know, I was probably crazy.

[Mark Mitchell]

Who was?

[Phil Labonte]

John Brown was probably crazy.

[Tim Pool]

He was absolutely crazy.

[Ian Crossland]

He was a hero growing up, too.

[Tim Pool]

Listen, this guy was so dumb. Look, I can sympathize with abolitionism, but this guy took over the Harper's Ferry armory, and when a train pulled through, he was like, they can go. They're fine. And what happened? The train then went and said, help. Call the feds. They've taken over an armory.

[Ian Crossland]

Yeah.

[Tim Pool]

He would have succeeded in the seizure of the armory if he did not let the train leave.

[Ian Crossland]

That's what people sometimes don't understand about, like, modern war and how things can escalate. If you don't go all the way, you die. Here's a fun, modern war, and that is the horror of domestic violence.

[Tim Pool]

Here's a fun one. West Virginia should not exist. West Virginia was a part of Virginia when the Civil War happened. Virginia conscripted and called to combat. Young men, the voting age males, left the region that was now West Virginia to go fight. Once they were away, the remaining people who weren't fighting said, should we vote to secede and join the Union? Yeah, let's do it. So these people who were called to fight in a war, it's beautiful. And it's. And look, I think it's around 3 to 5% of the south were slave owners. So these are people who are just called up by their state for active duty. They came home to find they were no longer part of their home state anymore. It's absolutely wild, the things that went down in the Civil War.

[Phil Labonte]

Yeah.

[Tim Pool]

And the Supreme Court ultimately said to Virginia after the war, screw you, Virginia. West Virginia's gone.

[Mark Mitchell]

What's crazy is how much the calculus has just changed in a year. Right. Because you almost feel like if it had happened a few years ago, it would have been like a straw breaks the camel's back, MAGA flips out. There's some kind of violent protest, and then the police state cracked, cracks down on it, and. And then it pops off. But here it's, like, pretty easy to say that the military and police would side with Trump. Like, very easy to say and so it would not get very far.

[Tim Pool]

I agree. And when you look at the history of the Civil War in the United States, nobody thought the war could happen, largely because they were like. You mean all of these generals from each of these states that were all trained at West Point together and are friends with each other are going to fight? That's the stupidest thing I ever heard. And then what happened? Yep. And it was. I can't remember which general it was, but the Virginia general. Lee.

[Ian Crossland]

Robert E. Lee.

[Tim Pool]

Was. It was. It was. He was. He.

[Ian Crossland]

He's Virginia. Yeah, he was the Virginia guy, I believe.

[Tim Pool]

Well, I believe it might have been him or it might have been Stonewall.

[Ian Crossland]

Oh, Stonewall Jackson.

[Tim Pool]

Might have been guyless. But they basically wrote, I am now torn between standing with my friends as Robert Lee and my country, I believe.

[Ian Crossland]

Yeah.

[Tim Pool]

Or my home.

[Ian Crossland]

Yep.

[Tim Pool]

And I have no choice but to go to my home.

[Mark Mitchell]

I don't know.

[Tim Pool]

So you've got, you've got a cop in California, and he, he gets paid by the California government. Sure. Trump can say, we're going to seize your resources. California says, no, you're not. And this cop is being told by the man standing in front of him, I don't think people understand how this stuff happens. Let's, let's, let's just entertain this concept. Donald Trump's in D.C. you are in California. You're a cop in San Francisco. Trump announces on the tv, police must side with him. He's seizing control. Trump's not here. Your boss says, nah, we're not listening to that. We are not going to allow Trump or any of his people to come anywhere near the state. We are a sovereign state. We have a right to defend ourselves. They have no constitutional authority here. What is that cop going to do? He's going to say, look, when I watch police officers arrest innocent people, seize guns from innocent people, and they go, I'm just doing my job. And conservatives defend it. The idea that Donald Trump would decree and police inside with them is laughable to me.

[Mark Mitchell]

I think that's right. I think there. There's a lot of questions about whether the principle, and you'd never know until, you know, like, what kicks it off. But if there's a rebuttal to that, and I'm not saying it is, because I have no idea how this would play out, is that I think states matter less, people move more. People aren't landowners like they were back then. People change jobs all the time. And also in the polling, what I noticed is that your state doesn't really friggin matter that much except for just how left or right you are. Like if I polled Wisconsin this, this cycle, I was seeing almost as high levels of concern about the border as I was in like Arizona and Nevada.

[Phil Labonte]

Really.

[Mark Mitchell]

So it doesn't matter that much except for literally the sliding scale of Kamala Harris and Trump. Problem is all of those blue voters are in cities that need supply chain.

[Tim Pool]

So yeah, so let's imagine police in the big cities and surrounding suburbs and a conflict breaks out. Not a civil war, but there's a conflict. Maybe Texas, you know, when they were securing their border against Joe Biden. Maybe we see something like that. Maybe we see California completely opens up. They tear all the walling, all the wall down.

[Mark Mitchell]

Here's one. The feds go in to arrest Phil Murphy for harboring illegal alien.

[Tim Pool]

Indeed. And the police in New Jersey will not side with Trump.

[Mark Mitchell]

New Jersey is now a swing state.

[Tim Pool]

What happened? Because in South Jersey, maybe when the National Guard comes, when what would happen is the National Guard would show up and the police would likely say, you know, as a matter of law, the Insurrection act. We don't intervene in this regard in these matters. They won't work with Trump. Let's say, let's escalate this. Let's do the scenario of. That's an interesting one. I'm not entirely sure how it would play out. Trump going into a deep blue state next to New York, who would intervene on the behalf of Phil Murphy. Cuz he did mention that he had an illegal immigrant in his house. The example that I like to use is Colorado and Oklahoma using abortion as a, as a comparable pretext to war, like slavery was. We're dealing with a question of personhood. One Democrats once again are on the side against personhood. Republicans on the side of personhood. Colorado has completely unfettered abortion. Oklahoma has totally banned abortion. You enter a scenario where you get an underground railroad, the Democrats call it, of women escaping Oklahoma to get abortions. Oklahoma says this is a crime. I can't remember which state it was. We went over this when it happened. But the governor of a southern state, a woman, fled the state to get an abortion and he said that's a criminal conspiracy. So you fleeing a state with others and being aided to go do it is a criminal conspiracy. So let's say conflict breaks out at the border between Oklahoma and Colorado. There's a man who is with a woman, she's seven months pregnant, the baby is viable. She says one night, you know what? I've decided I Can't be with this man. It's a bad relationship. He's abusive, emotionally abusive or something. She gets up at 2am, packs her bags, and she flees. The guy wakes up a few hours later and he looks around, he's like, where's. You know, where's. Where's my girlfriend with my baby? Or is my wife? He finds out through a mutual friend, she's on her way to Colorado to abort your child at 7 months. This is at the point where he's already seen the ultrasound and he's freaking out. One of the leading reasons given by women for abortion is bad relationships. This is true. So this is a potential scenario. She gets to Colorado, he calls his friends, crying, please help me. She's going to kill my son. They drive to Colorado. Colorado police block them and say, you're not going anywhere near this woman. We know what your intentions are. Oklahoma's now at the border. The woman is right there, or she's rushing towards the border. It's a crazy scenario, but how does this play out? If a woman were to do this, if this does come to a point where there is a conflict and Oklahoma says she is breaking the law, kidnapping this child. Colorado says, no, she's not. It's an unborn fetus. It's not even alive. The police, 100% would be on the side of the woman. Oklahoma would 100% be on the side of the man. The federal government could try to intervene, and then Colorado's gonna claim that Trump is trying to overrule the state's sovereign laws, violating the 9th and 10th amendment. Yeah, I don't know how likely that is. I'm just saying, if you entertain a scenario where it comes down to a conflict between the federal government and the state, where they actively need to oppose each other, the state is going to side with the state and the federal government with the federal government. The simple reason is that a guy may be a conservative Trump supporter, MAGA cop, but when they say, you will defy Donald Trump and follow the orders of your department, he's going to look around at every house and say, it's 90% democrat. Either I flee the state with my family right now and I'm homeless and I beg Trump for help, or I just do as I'm told and do my job for my state.

[Mark Mitchell]

Well, what I can say is you should probably ask ChatGPT to make that into a movie script, because it would have been a better Civil War movie than the one that they put out, but.

[Tim Pool]

I know.

[Mark Mitchell]

Yeah, but I Don't I? You never know the context. Like what if it's exposure between the cops and the feds, like the FBI? I really don't know. Like we've had. There's probably people doing that right now. There's. There was that whole situation with the divorced father and the mother was trying to trans a kid. I don't know how that played out, but it's like a context of tension, a constitutional crisis or something that sparks it off and then it just comes down to the details and I don't know, but we're.

[Tim Pool]

I think that one of the mistakes we often make is that we compare now to the US Civil war, which was distinct. There was a strong moral issue and a question of personhood between sovereign, independent states under a weak government. People said the United States are, it was not a singular government. The federal government was very weak. Today we are dealing with something more akin to like the Bolsheviks or the Spanish Civil War, where you have ideological factions that are amassing in rural and urban centers.

[Ian Crossland]

Or even like the Chilean Civil war, would you call it that? With Salvador Allende, where they came in and they just in one afternoon flew bombers over the Capitol. They went in, they said, hey, he killed himself. The new ruler's in charge now. They put in Pinochet and civil war over. Happened in like seven hours.

[Tim Pool]

Well, that's called a revolution.

[Ian Crossland]

It was a revolution. And I think we're in the midst of a global revolution. It's technological, it's banking, and we're just, they're trying, they would love to see the US fall into civil war and destroy itself because we're the biggest bulwark against global totalitarian technocracy.

[Phil Labonte]

So I think that you're onto something there. There, there are elements of the left, the left, people on the left that have the ideology that any populist or any right leaning people can not be in, in positions of power. You're seeing it in France, Italy. Le Pen is get. They figured out a way to put Le Pen in jail for a couple years. There's a guy in Romania, I guess, that was a populist. There's a lot of right leaning populist type politicians that the left is just breaking the law and throwing them in jail. But what will happen is when the population realizes that they, that their democracy is a sham, they will side with the, with the autocrats. They will, they will side with the people that are the authoritarians if they can have a reliable system.

[Ian Crossland]

Yeah, this ties into what you're saying about the fourth Turning that after order decreases, people will just seek the strongman. You didn't say strongman. I'm saying that. But seek order. Yeah, in whatever form that may be at the moment. And if that's like harsh government overreach.

[Mark Mitchell]

I'll have to figure out a way to ask that question. I'm actually really interested in what the results would be. But it's like a vacuum of leadership that is filled by a new generation of leaders that have different value sets than the existing ones, and they reorganize society around a shared cultural vision. That's what the fourth turning tells us we're going to see in the next five or ten years. And it'll be a major change that puts 2,911 basically to shame because everybody, like, actually liked George W. Bush. That's a really big feat. It's like 80 approval ratings or whatever. And, you know, the whole thing with the freedom fries, like society was reorganized with a shared cultural vision. It didn't last because none of the, none of the values, none of the institutions, like, got changed. But that's theoretically what we're in for.

[Tim Pool]

Cultural cohesion does not break. Cultural cohesion doesn't typically lead to civil war. If every single person in this country was watching the same TV show, there'd be a little conflict. Their worldviews would be very. Would be similar. If every single person was influenced by only a couple of news channels and the news channels kept complaining about government spending, Doge would be a celebration. Yeah, but you have bifurcated culture in this country and there's two parent factions and then subsets within all of them. So you've got libertarians somewhat aligned with the conservatives and post liberals and whatever. And then on the left, you've got the progressives, the socialists, the communists, and the Democrats. Overwhelmingly. These are two distinct spheres of influence. Neither will back down. I think if you do a fair assessment, what you'd find is the Democrat side is authoritarian, cult based. Their worldview is adhere to the authority or else this makes society function. They're not wrong. They're just crazy. And their worldview is. Is nonsense. On the right, it's more meritocratic, decentralized. Do your thing with a faction that has a strongman. And the reason why the right is only just now turning things around is on the right, people have finally decided to wield power.

[Mark Mitchell]

Location?

[Ian Crossland]

The lab.

[Mark Mitchell]

Quentin only has 24 hours to sell his car. Is that even possible? He goes to Carvana.com. what is this, a movie trailer? He ignores the doubters.

[Tim Pool]

Enters his license plate.

[Mark Mitchell]

Wow, that's a great offer.

[Tim Pool]

The car is sold, but will Carvana.

[Ian Crossland]

Pick it up in time?

[Mark Mitchell]

They'll literally pick it up tomorrow morning. Done with the dramatics.

[Tim Pool]

Car selling in record time.

[Mark Mitchell]

Save your time. Go to Carvana.com and sell your car today.

[Tim Pool]

Pickup fees may apply. So, typically, what you ended up seeing with Trump's early coalition was people like me and Carl Benjamin who are classical liberals, who are like, no, no, no, we can't do those things. We must maintain order. And then after getting beaten in the face over and over again by people willing to break the law and violate the Constitution, we went, wow, you can't actually exist in a society where people don't follow the law and their law enforcement will not follow the law. A lot of people bring up, why is, how is it so easy to arrest Trump's lawyers yet Adam Schiff and, and the, and, and these, these FBI agents, these, these, these intelligent intel guys who lied. We can't get a single indictment of these people.

[Elad Eliyahu]

Yep.

[Tim Pool]

Because they are willing to violate the Constitution and the right to typically is not. Maybe Trump right now will realize his time is short and he's looking at being a lame duck president for two years of his term if the Democrats win in 2020, 20, 26. And maybe he just says, like he's already been doing, let's go nuclear, issue indictments, arrest these people. I'll tell you this, Trump's got to do it right now.

[Mark Mitchell]

Yeah. Clocks again.

[Tim Pool]

If Donald Trump waits a year to issue indictments, it will negatively impact him in the election. If he does it right now, this year will not even be. No one will remember it. There's going to be no. If Trump next month says criminal indictment for Adam Schiff, witness tampering, lying. There was something that came out with Ratcliffe today that I'm, I'm blanking on, but a specific reference about him being a fact witness to the case and there being some potential implications there. If he went after Liz Cheney for witness tampering or Anthony Fauci for lying to Congress, he has to do it now, because if he does it close to the midterms, there will be an endless campaign commercial of Trump retaliating as a fascist and arresting people to stop them from being influential or winning. If he does it now, next year, people are going to go, oh, yeah, when was that?

[Mark Mitchell]

No, you're right. He came in with shock and awe. The Days of thunder, whatever you want to call it. And it was effective. Now, I'll tell you I don't think it changes approval rating that much. Like, it was just flat at, like, 52. It went up to 56 once. But what it did do was completely take all the power away from the left. Like, they had no idea what to do. Chuck Schumer was out there. Virtue signaling. People tore his head off on Twitter. And so he has so much power right now. And I don't even mean to do anything autocratic, but he's sitting on a massive set of information that he knows about the stuff they uncovered in the government. Socialize it, put it on tv. Don't just do one press release. Make it part of the zeitgeist. And he could do that. You know, you don't have to throw garbage cases out there, like, string them out. But they have enough on somebody. And there are people, I'm sure, that have already flipped. Get it out there. Get the information out there.

[Tim Pool]

Just control Doge Transparency day. Once a week, they publish information on malfeasance.

[Mark Mitchell]

I want him to make the Doge Prentice. I want to have Doge featured on linear television. They should negotiate with CBS to take over 60 minutes slot. A highly produced show where Trump fires, you know, 10,000 people out of the, you know, whatever it is this week. But, like, something like that, because, like, people are following this. Doge was more popular than Trump was. It was plus 11 net. And we asked, how angry are you with the level of waste, fraud, and abuse in the government that they've seen so far? 70%.

[Elad Eliyahu]

Doge was more popular than Trump. That's interesting, because I thought Musk was polling so far underwater. So that's Moss crazy distinction.

[Mark Mitchell]

Well, first off, other people do okay with the elections, but I'm pretty sure you can only trust my favorability numbers. Everybody else has a sandbag Trump. So they'll show, like, a Trump 44% favorability rating and then put a poll out that he hasn't polling at 50. Doesn't make sense. But we had Trump when Trump was 53. Doge was 55, net 11. Trump was like net 10. Elon was net 9. But then Elon's dropping. He went from like, 52 down to, I think, 45 in the last poll. So that's the difference between Teflon Don is that, you know, stuff doesn't just slide right off Elon. It's starting to take a toll.

[Tim Pool]

Do you want to finish?

[Mark Mitchell]

No, go ahead. That's it.

[Tim Pool]

I want to. I want to ask you this question. So here we have Donald Trump's approval writing, which is the best average of his political career for. For the time it goes up and down a little bit, but. But it's currently in the spread on real clear politics. Minus 2.2. He had a honeymoon phase when he first got in. Now his disapproval seems to be going up a little bit. But it's fair to say that when you look at all the aggregate polling, Trump is polling his best. That being said, how are we dealing with, in the same time period, two polls, RMG and Marquette having inverted results. RMG says Trump plus seven or I'm sorry, RMG says plus seven and Marquette says minus eight. Mike, my issue now is I take a look at these polls in aggregate. In Trump's first term, they were all relatively close. They were all minus 1, minus 2, minus 3, minus 1. And so the averaged at 2 and you're like, makes sense. Trump's only minus 2 because Fox News has him at minus 2, but Gallup has him at minus 10. But RMG has them at plus 7. How could there be so wildly different polls for the same time periods?

[Mark Mitchell]

Yeah, it's especially on the non election stuff. Well, the election stuff, especially 2020 was all over the place. You have like net zero to all the way, like Biden plus 16. That was real horse race polling. And that's what everybody tunes their results to. The truth about polling right now is that nobody's taking an actual random sample. It's impossible. There's literally no way to reach millions and millions of Americans anymore. Even if you had all this money in the world to just spam everybody with SMS text messages. At the end of the day, what you're getting a sample of isn't the country, it's a sample of people who actually respond to spammers. So one of the reasons that we think we're more accurate and we do better, first we're the only one polling approval on a nightly basis. Nobody's doing it anymore. And then the other is we pioneered the use of landline ivr. We're one of the more prominent people that came out and did that in a time when most people had landlines. But we poll so often that I have 400,000 people that like to answer our phone and half the electorate is over 50. So it lines up really well. Almost everybody else has gone to online panels or have built their own panels. The industry is sort of consolidating into Ipsos and YouGov. So what Ipsos is, is just a panel of only 50,000, 60,000 people. People. It's managed by people with pronouns in their LinkedIn bios. It's like one set of people and they don't. They're not picking up those swing voters. They're not getting new voters entering. You know, they're trying to manage that. And what they're doing is they're creating basically an artificial America. And they and us and YouGov is another one of the panels. They and us will try and tune the results to the election. But I think I'm getting a politically sophisticated older group of people that are informed and are less normie. And because of that, not only did I have Trump approval higher than everybody else, I actually had for most of the time Biden approval higher than everybody else. Nobody, nobody wants to, you know, talk about that. Like Quinnipiac was out with 33 Biden approval. I had him at like 44.

[Elad Eliyahu]

So can I ask you a bigger, a bigger picture question about polling? So much of politics, media and narratives are driven by these polls. And we're seeing these polls with. So for example, like Fox News, CNN of oftentimes run with whatever polls on based on approval rating, how people are feeling with immigration and whatnot. And these really do drive narratives. Do you think the influence of polls is a little bit too stark here with how close politicians are paying an eye to this, how much the media is paying an eye to this, given how fickle they are with how big of a spread they are. You know, a lot of politicians and media people really look at polls like the gospel. I'm not exaggerating. They really. Politicians will look at polls and like change their behaviors based on a couple of points spread here. So yeah, is this driving our media conversations and politicians mindset too much? And you could tell me if you think I'm misunderstanding this, but the politicians I know are always paying attention to polls. Polls are always the justification behind media narratives and media stories. And look, there's gigantic spreads here. You might know better than me about how fickle these are. I'm not a statistics guy, but am I off the path here and my.

[Mark Mitchell]

Experience that it always leans one way. I'd love to know who those politicians are. I can't get anybody. I literally had to give our state polling away, almost essentially free to sponsors this time because nobody on the right actually believes or pays for polling. All the money on the right seems captive into this consulting class ouroboros of feeding itself. And so what I want is people to pay attention to these polls because it reflects public opinion. E verify, get it done. Everybody loves it. Photo IDs Everybody's like, oh, wow, look at that. In Wisconsin, the ID is passed, but the Republican didn't win. Yeah, it's because Democrats like photo ID for voting. It's very popular. And so there's. I could give them a list of 20 things that are bipartisan wins that they should do tomorrow, and they don't pay attention, I guess.

[Elad Eliyahu]

You don't think we're paying too much attention to polls? You think we should be doing more?

[Mark Mitchell]

Well, no, I think the problem is, is that polls have turned into. Everybody hates them because they're an information warfare weapon for the election. I don't like election matchups. I don't want to do that crap. I want to get policy in place. And they do. I did a whole hour and a half show on all the ways a pollster can lie to you. There are many, and the biggest one is cherry picking. Cherry picking is the biggest one, even if the pollster is not corrupt. You know, the Hill will take your context, your results out of context. They put a Harris plus 7 poll headline out in the middle of August when the point of the underlying poll was to prove that when primed with race and gender questions, people were more likely to pick Harris. So they literally had a Harris plus one poll. Then they said, oh, what about all this other stuff? Then they did it again and got Harris +7. The Hill put that as a headline. Harris +7.

[Tim Pool]

Here's what I love. Here's my question for you. Would you, Would you in your life, do you think it is right? I want to phrase, is it? Is it? Is it good for individuals to try and reduce their carbon footprint or their pollution to be good stewards of the earth?

[Mark Mitchell]

Yeah, we should be good stewards. I've got Boy Scout. I like Conservative.

[Tim Pool]

I can't believe it. I got a 90% support rate for the Green New Deal. You believe it?

[Ian Crossland]

Yeah, the way you asked the question.

[Tim Pool]

Here's another question for you. Do you believe that we should have racial segregation or special benefits for people based on race and universities?

[Mark Mitchell]

The missing component here is a principled leader. I don't know.

[Tim Pool]

I mean, do you believe that people should get special privileges in their and access to jobs based on their race?

[Mark Mitchell]

Oh, hell no.

[Tim Pool]

Okay, so he opposes the Green New Deal. Yeah, because people don't understand that the Green New Deal was nonsense. It included DE and I hiring initiatives for race based on race and the argument that minorities are affected by climate change more than white people. So you could actually ask that question, which is specific to one portion of the Green New Deal and then claim its support for the Green New Deal or opposition, you choose.

[Mark Mitchell]

Now, we were talking about tariffs. It's the same thing. People have no idea the details. You can ask it any way you want, get any result you want. And that's just one of the million ways they can lie. They can do a push poll. They can like, hey, Donald Trump was kicking kittens. Do you approve or disapprove? Then ask the election matchup. Or they can even, like, only release partial parts of the. They asked this big long question and then it's like, hey, do you approve or disapprove the Green New Deal? You don't know how they prime them. And so, yeah, it can be completely corrupt. So we put out. Ultimately, it comes down to ethics, you know what I mean? Like, I don't put out all of my data and give people access to the underlying information about the people that I've poll, but I put out the cross tabs. I put out every question I pull and they. And I list every sponsor that sponsors everything and how I weighted it. And you have to trust me. And the problem is, is that literally everything's been weaponized. That's why I call myself the Honest Pollster. I was trying to figure out why we weren't commoditized. And that's literally what it comes down to. There are a few other honest people, and I'm not calling all the other ones liars or like you, but you don't know because it's the way it's being used. And then they hide behind this veil of transparency or in an ivory tower or in this, like, artificial assertion that they're unbiased. Like, the first thing I posted on Twitter when I started, like, tweeting in. In August when I got. So I got so mad at all the scummy tactics. Like, they. After Kamala Harris got anointed, there were two weeks when nobody released a national poll. There was like three national polls that came out. And I was like, what is this? So I came out and like, what I said to the future roles that came after me when I first started is that people are biased, but polls shouldn't be. And then they shut up. So I don't get attacked by trolls anymore. Because, yeah, people are biased. So you're going to believe. You're going to pretend your pollster isn't biased. Right? Like, so anyways, I don't know. It's a mess. Do you?

[Tim Pool]

When this is. I was talking to Michael Mouse the other day and I was Saying that I no longer view myself as classical liberal, but more post liberal, which is a reference to recognizing the limitations of liberalism and requiring some kind of strong defense of your moral tradition. Michael was saying, well, but people usually associate post liberalism with fascism. And so I explained my position, and he says. He says, oh, so you're where I'm at. I'm at. Because he's an anarchist. And the gist of the conversation ultimately, is nobody, the majority of people are. Are dishonest, unfortunately. I mean, they're honest to certain degrees, but people will lie to get what they want. And so when it comes to polls, most of them, like you're pointing out, are not honorable. We have no more honor in the society. It is people saying, how can I get the result I'm looking for? So in media, you get journalists who will ask leading questions or who will take quotes out of context. The fact checkers will. Will add things to a claim to make it false. Did Ian eat ice cream on Saturday? False. It was Sunday. Then they can put a big false on it, and they can take down any post they want on Facebook. Facebook got rid of it, but that's what they were doing. And then you have pollsters that will ask questions or prime people in ways that they know will manipulate the results so they can make the claim so their ideology wins.

[Ian Crossland]

One issue I have had with polls we talk about on the show from time to time is when poll polling will go out for 3000 people. Like what we're just eyeballing here.

[Tim Pool]

3001 here. Rest must. 1500.

[Ian Crossland]

So 1500 people. But then a news company will make an article and it'll say, 43% of Americans believe. And it's like, bro, it's 1500 people. They're.

[Phil Labonte]

It's.

[Tim Pool]

Yeah.

[Elad Eliyahu]

Tell them about statistics, Mark.

[Ian Crossland]

Okay, I know it's a lot.

[Elad Eliyahu]

Tell them about the numbers.

[Mark Mitchell]

So you don't need to have that much statistics to pull. But there's this central limit theorem and blah, blah, blah. Basically, there's accuracy and there's precision. And so precision is like, I shoot the gun. The bullets all go the same place, but the target was over there. Accuracy is like I spray down there. All the bullets went on the target, but not in the center. And that's one of the tactics they use. A lot of people say, look at that morning consult poll side. It's like 10,000 results. It's got a 1% margin of error. It's like, yeah, but they're 11 points away from the target. And so what we'd like to do and there's diminishing returns. I would rather do 10 polls of a thousand people than one poll of 10,000 people. I learned a hell of a lot more. And that's what we do. We put out more polling than anybody else except morning consult this cycle. And I went back and counted of the 28 polls on nuclear politics starting Aug. 1 that showed Trump winning a little red circle. We were 50% of them.

[Tim Pool]

So let me ask to try and help Ian understand, you guys were one of the most accurate on the, like, every election over the past, like 10 years or whatever.

[Mark Mitchell]

We, we've done a good job.

[Tim Pool]

So you've been very close to the actual results.

[Mark Mitchell]

Yeah.

[Tim Pool]

Now, how is it possible that you very accurately reflected the results of the election, but if you only polled 1500 people? Right, Ian? That makes no sense.

[Mark Mitchell]

I pull out a quarter million of people a year. So like we ask all the time. I put out 42 different state polls spread across 14 states. So you get a really clear picture because I'm taking a sample every time. So it's like, hey, I took Pennsylvania and I got a plus one, a plus three, a plus two. I'm pretty sure what the results going to be, and I'm going to tune it to make sure that the results, like, aren't all over the place.

[Tim Pool]

But how is it, how is it that a poll of 1500 people could. Could be claimed to represent the country or the general approval of a President?

[Mark Mitchell]

Statistically, the 95% confidence interval, meaning 19 out of 20 times, if I run it again, the. The actual population mean will be within that interval. So it's a plus or minus 3%. Like there's different ways to represent accuracy. And that's just like a statistical proof, like of the, of the Central Limit Theorem.

[Tim Pool]

Simply put, in layman's terms, you do not need to ask every person in the country to have a general understanding of what the.

[Mark Mitchell]

Right. Exactly. As the sample size increases, you get diminishing returns.

[Tim Pool]

Right.

[Mark Mitchell]

And so I don't need a 1% margin of error. If I get a 3% margin variant, it's really going to be closer than that and I'm going to pull a few more times. And that's what I'm going to put out because I have a limited budget as well. And what also on these policy issues, the way I perceive polling is like, here's my results. Prove me wrong, Ian.

[Tim Pool]

Ian has struggled for years to understand.

[Ian Crossland]

They just don't understand.

[Elad Eliyahu]

I guess a thousand random people participating in this is surprisingly representative of what it would be if you were to poll 100,000 people. The accuracy might become marginally more accurate, but just a thousand people would still be surprisingly representative. More than I guess you would expect.

[Mark Mitchell]

Well, but they're not random. They have that much precision anyways. Because there's so other. There's so many other sources of potential error baked in. Like I could be polling. Like my sample method like techniques of getting to these people could have inherent biases built in. I could be picking the wrong party weightings and could be completely off there. So why would I do a poll and get like a 1% margin of error when I could have three points of baked in bias in my party weightings?

[Tim Pool]

And that's what the others are doing, Is that what you're saying?

[Mark Mitchell]

There's all kinds of different tricks. I'll tell you. Like 2018, we didn't do that. Great. And I think there's reasons why. But over time, one of the problems is they'll create artificial measuring sticks in order to slander people. So we were told that we are far, way far right in 2016 just because we showed Trump up a few times. But we had Hillary Clinton winning the national popular vote. We were within like a point or two. So we did great. In 2020, our final call was Biden plus one. But three weeks before that, we had Biden plus 12. And the average of all of our polling across September, October was Biden plus six. So we were actually two points to the left. And they call us a far right pollster. So we'll use underhanded tactics like that. And on the 2018 miss, I really, I'm very eager to see what happens. For instance, to Act Blue, I think that. Oh, yeah, we're going to find that fraud.

[Tim Pool]

Yeah, there's. The accusations are coming out. But, but Ian, explain what you meant to. Then if you say we don't understand.

[Ian Crossland]

Yeah, yeah. So it sounds like as a pollster, you're very ethical and diligent in the way you poll. So I think that I agree. Like, a poll comes out. Well, let me, let me finish. A poll comes out. Here's what the poll said. That's good. You did your job. Now the news media will pick it up and be like, okay, this poll says 47% of these 2,000 people believe. And then they'll run the headline, 40% of Americans believe. I find that to be unethical, an unethical distribution of your data.

[Mark Mitchell]

Do you agree people have unethically distributed our data, for sure. But we're kind of in the polling ghetto right now.

[Tim Pool]

Well, the question is, when you put out, when Rasmussen puts out a approval for the president, is the implication this is a national, this is a view of the national population.

[Mark Mitchell]

Yeah. It is a sample of US likely voters with a plus or minus 3 margin of error. And if you don't personally think that that represents then you can prove us wrong in your own poll or do.

[Elad Eliyahu]

A more expensive that everybody isn't being polled and it's being said that all the percent he's that you're using the.

[Mark Mitchell]

Poll America ever again.

[Tim Pool]

The poll, Ian's point is that A poll of 1500 people is not representative of this country no matter what. And when the media says it is, they're lying. And so the question for the pollsters is, can you poll 1500 people and are your results representative of America?

[Mark Mitchell]

Yes. Scientifically, statistically Relevant. Yes, Relevant.

[Ian Crossland]

I agree. Relevant.

[Elad Eliyahu]

Yeah.

[Ian Crossland]

But I don't think that it is a direct representation or a reflection of what 330 million people think.

[Mark Mitchell]

It's kind of semantics, you know what I mean?

[Ian Crossland]

Common sense.

[Elad Eliyahu]

No, but that's, look at the way.

[Ian Crossland]

These representatives in Congress.

[Elad Eliyahu]

That's how the statistics work.

[Ian Crossland]

700,000 people.

[Elad Eliyahu]

You might have to like get a lesson from a pollster. But like that's a.

[Ian Crossland]

Math is fair.

[Tim Pool]

I just want to.

[Ian Crossland]

Sorry, interrupt.

[Tim Pool]

Ian, you are talking to one of the leading pollsters in the world who is explaining to you how the math and science works. I don't know what you're arguing.

[Mark Mitchell]

Well, it's like if I come up with the results, 43% think the Civil War is happening in the next five years. Right. The headline should probably say poll colon Civil War. Like U.S. likely voters, Civil wars happening. And then but it's on our site RasmussenReports.com so people know, you know, it's just semantics. It is a statistical representation of what Americans think.

[Ian Crossland]

Well, it's like it's not just because if I said, you know, 80% of the people in this room think that, but I only pulled me and I guess let's see or let's just say 100 of us in here and I said 60% of the people in that room believe, but I only pulled five people and three of them thought it so and I told them what I'm going to do, that would be unethical and a lie of me to say that and presumptuous.

[Tim Pool]

So we're going to go to super chats because we're going in circles. Yeah, but Ian, I don't think so.

[Ian Crossland]

We're spiraling, that's for sure.

[Tim Pool]

This circling forward, this gentleman here, Ian's going to take on statistics, has explained that you are incorrect and you're missing.

[Ian Crossland]

No, he did not. As far as I know, you said you believed it was unethical for a news article to say 37%.

[Mark Mitchell]

I misunderstood your question. I like people. A poll is a poll and sometimes people load too much into what the results of a poll mean, but they are statistically relevant. It's an accepted form of journalism understanding what people think. And they're not the be all, end all. In fact, I would look at other data if I really wanted to know what was happening in election beyond polling, right?

[Tim Pool]

When a poll uses a representative sample and asks them their opinions and then publish that. When the media shorthands poll shows X percentage of Americans believe this, that is how we mathematically, scientifically assess popular public opinion. And as he's pointed out, the more people you ask, you get a diminishing return. It doesn't change the results. So there is a mathematical formula for the happy number of people. You need to ask in what in a representative distribution to figure out the likely within a margin of error of 3 points Opinion of this country. So the media is not wrong when they say poll shows.

[Ian Crossland]

Oh, but if a guy sees a poll of 1500 people and they're like, oh shit, it says exactly what we want the world to think. Everyone thinks. Let's make an article and say everyone thinks it's.

[Tim Pool]

That's an issue.

[Elad Eliyahu]

The same thing if they pulled 100,000 people is the point. It would show the same thing if you pulled 1500 or 15,000 people just.

[Phil Labonte]

Told you how they can take the information and twist it around to say whatever they want. Not whatever they want, but take the information and twist it to say things that are either not true or not the complete truth. So it's not about the polls, it's about the people that are taking, that are taking the data and the information.

[Ian Crossland]

Yes, I agree. It's not about the polls. The polls are done ethically.

[Mark Mitchell]

It started with a really great discussion that you had, I think, about the redefinition of politics and what the political spectrum is and what it's turned into. I kind of want to just respond like that's an important part of the discussion that I think is happening because the people trust me, because I talk to them and I show them what's going on and I try to answer their questions. But at the core of it is just my sincere representation of integrity. Like I'm trying to do a good job and I feel bad if I fail. And also our business would probably not exist if I failed. And so we need more of that. And that's, I don't know if you call that right or left politics anymore. But my take on what I think we're seeing is that where the right has gotten to and they weren't there eight years ago is that they're very careful about being intellectually honest and trying to get to an honest answer about things.

[Tim Pool]

Yes. And the left is fall in line or get out.

[Phil Labonte]

Yeah. I mean you can see that with not just the stuff that goes on on Capitol Hill in Congress, but even like in the Supreme Court. Everyone knows how the left leaning judges are going to rule you. You may be interested in hearing their, their, how their reasoning goes, but you know where they're going to come down on almost every issue. Very, very rarely do the left leaning justices surprise anyone. The, the, the, you know, the, the right leaning or centrist or, or conservative or however you want to, however you want to classify them, they're the ones that will actually surprise you. And you can't really be sure. You know, only the most. You know, you could probably come down, you can probably predict where like Clarence Thomas is going to come down and maybe predict where Alito comes down. But even, even Alito will surprise you sometimes. Whereas on the left leaning, they all fall in line.

[Tim Pool]

We're going to go to your chats my friends. So smash that like button. Share the show with everyone you know. If you're watching, take that URL, post it wherever you can. Sharing really does help. And tell your friends it's the. If everybody watching right now live shared this show with their friends, we would be the biggest new show in the world. That's, that's actually true. The reality is getting 70,000 people all at the same time to post on X is not possible. Because if all 70,000 people watching right now post it with 71,000 posted on X right now, we will be the number one global trend. So you know, if you want to support us, but we're going to grab your chats. We got the uncensored call in show coming up in about 20 minutes. You don't want to miss it at rumble.com/timcast IRL. That's where we're going to be live with the show. Don't miss it. Let's see what you got. 3D nerd armory says. Just found out my wife's Pregnant with our first possibly twins.

[Phil Labonte]

Congratulations.

[Tim Pool]

I just want to say, you know, when Alice and I were expecting, we were hoping for twins.

[Ian Crossland]

Really?

[Mark Mitchell]

Well, you know, I got twins.

[Tim Pool]

Yeah, we want, well, we want to have more kids. And we're like, hey, you know, two for the price of one right now. Considering how much work we realize it is for one kid, it's like, let's, let's take the time.

[Mark Mitchell]

No, it's totally different. Do twins your second time, the first time it's like, oh, everything has to be perfect. Oh, we have to take a picture of him with his little two month old sticker. Like, oh, when the twins come, it's.

[Tim Pool]

Like, oh, you're juggling them.

[Mark Mitchell]

Yeah, it's, it's a totally different thing. And you're like, oh, this is easier parenting than the, the prior structure.

[Ian Crossland]

Was it because it was two at once or because it came after?

[Mark Mitchell]

We just have twins in the family. Apparently we had our first kid and then like identical later. No, I mean, why was it easier?

[Ian Crossland]

Was it because they came after it? Was your second round around or was it because there was two at once?

[Mark Mitchell]

You can't manage it all, man. It's like. And we like my wife breastfed and all that stuff. It's like stuff goes out the window.

[Tim Pool]

You know, it's like I don't understand how that's possible. Like I, I have to imagine the guy double football. Geez. Wow. Also I'm imagining just, you know, being pregnant with twins. The amount of food that the mother would have to eat.

[Mark Mitchell]

My wife probably be laying down 95 to 135 pounds.

[Elad Eliyahu]

Wow.

[Mark Mitchell]

It was ridiculous looking, but I love her. I believe I just said that on the air.

[Ian Crossland]

I've heard that this is a kind of maybe wrong but that in times of when humans need to repopulate, they'll just start having more twins. That there's just more likelihood of it to happen.

[Tim Pool]

Makes sense.

[Mark Mitchell]

That's my head cannon now. That's cool.

[Tim Pool]

Right on.

[Mark Mitchell]

Heartwarming.

[Tim Pool]

Let's grab some more. What do we got? Amtra says over 1 trillion is being invested in the USA because of Donald Trump and the tariffs.

[Phil Labonte]

Fact, I think it's actually more than that. I've heard that there it's up to something like 5 trillion.

[Mark Mitchell]

Yeah.

[Tim Pool]

Wow.

[Phil Labonte]

So.

[Tim Pool]

Well, it's all good news, man. Jacob Paul says Wisconsin GOP is kicking out anyone who worked with TP usa. And Scott Pressler, Milwaukee gop, which is maga, is being defunded by the state GOP and they took Elon's money and used it to prop up new establishment county GOP wings. State GOP gave phone numbers of early voters.

[Mark Mitchell]

Yeah, that's par for the course. I've been railing on this. The number one enemy to American first movement is Republicans, establishment Republicans. For from so many MAGA candidates who are just like, well, you know, the state party rules everything. There's one or two influence influencers there. If you want to run, they're going to push you out. They're going to run a squishy moderate candidate because they think that that's who wins. And oh by the way, it's all about the consulting deals and then rnc, RGA and RCC like no nowhere to be found. And that all the things you see on Twitter, all these big names are just a drop in the bucket compared to what needs to be built or changed in order to make MAGA the predominant ideology in Republican Party.

[Phil Labonte]

It's, I'm surprised that there are still so many, so many of the, the, the old guard Republicans in positions of authority and positions, positions of influence. I, I wasn't surprised after Trump lost in or you know, the 2020 election, however you want to call it, where the Trump lost or Biden stole it. I don't care whatever you hear, whatever you want to say. But I wasn't surprised that there, that was like a last grasp for power now for after four years of seeing the way the Democrats behave and then and the clear victory that Trump had. It was because of Trump and the, and the, the kind of MAGA movement, the, the America first kind of people. It surprises me that there are still Republicans that aren't like doing their best to get on board the new Clarence.

[Tim Pool]

Says happy birthday, Ian. You are one of the three other people who I have found that share a birthday. Here's to another trip around the sun. By the way, look up skeleton graphene super caps.

[Ian Crossland]

I will. Thank you.

[Elad Eliyahu]

It's your birthday.

[Ian Crossland]

It is, yeah.

[Elad Eliyahu]

Happy birthday.

[Ian Crossland]

Second thank you very much.

[Phil Labonte]

Old are you?

[Tim Pool]

41.

[Ian Crossland]

46 today.

[Phil Labonte]

46.

[Elad Eliyahu]

Doesn't he look so good for his age? Your skin. Thank you.

[Mark Mitchell]

I think that's why everybody buys the coffee Roses annual.

[Ian Crossland]

Buy the coffee my man. 79 was harsh, baby.

[Tim Pool]

His secret is John Lemon died. Not only does Ian drink Ian's graphene dream coffee, he puts the grounds in his bread that he makes and does coffee enemas.

[Ian Crossland]

Oh, Tim, you're speaking my love language. Hey, what was that? What was that person? They said check out the graphene skeleton. I'm sorry, it was purely Brotherly love.

[Phil Labonte]

No.

[Tim Pool]

Graph skeleton. Graphene super caps.

[Ian Crossland]

Thank you very much. Super chatter. Who was that? Super chatter.

[Tim Pool]

That is the new Clarence.

[Ian Crossland]

Thank you. The new Clarence. Graphene super caps. Thank you.

[Tim Pool]

Let's see what do we got going on over here? Esme says. Tim, please read. Please start reporting on the Epic City. Certain local politicians want to bring Sharia law to Texas. They are trying to keep things quiet. AB is investigating more eyes on this. Yeah. Have you guys heard about Epic City in Texas?

[Phil Labonte]

Yeah, like 420 acres or something like that. They've got. They purchased now.

[Tim Pool]

And what is the plan? They want to do, like a Muslim city or something.

[Phil Labonte]

Yeah, I don't know. I don't know the details, but I do believe that it's essentially going to be a city full of religious Muslims and they will be attempting to be as autonomous as they can possibly be in Texas.

[Elad Eliyahu]

Is this any different than more power to be Amish? Yeah, like, I mean, as long as they're peaceful and within the bounds of the Constitution and keeping it kosher or.

[Phil Labonte]

Halal there.

[Elad Eliyahu]

You know, interesting choice, but, I mean, if they're doing things like Sharia law that are antithetical to our values, I think that's an issue.

[Phil Labonte]

Well, that's. That's. I think that that is why people are concerned. I don't know what their actual plan is, but the people that are upset or that are worried about it, they're probably worried about, you know, you have to wear burqa in the street or, you know, virtue police.

[Elad Eliyahu]

I think these no go zones zones, too, that, you know, that we saw in Europe, I don't think people want to see happening here. Amish places are never no go zones. But I think there might be a fear of these turning into something like that.

[Tim Pool]

Ray, JLB says baby crying Burn the Constitution. The meme is, oh, no, a child is crying. Quick, burn the Constitution.

[Phil Labonte]

Child crying.

[Tim Pool]

All right, what have we got going on? Kane, Abel says, phil, do not give Massey a cop out. He voted against Trump. He has major TDS. He blamed Trump for January 6th and several other things.

[Elad Eliyahu]

You and endorsed.

[Phil Labonte]

You are the one with tds.

[Tim Pool]

Thomas Massie derangement.

[Phil Labonte]

Well, Trump derangement. If you believe that Thomas Massie has tds, I think that you're the one with the skewed perspective. Thomas Massie votes no on everything because Thomas Massie is a principled libertarian in the same vein as Dr. Ron Paul was. Dr. Ron Paul's nickname was Dr. No because he voted no on everything as well. You don't have to like him. But his motivations are not, oh, I hate Trump.

[Elad Eliyahu]

He's voting no on the MAGA agenda. Why does he get the pass?

[Phil Labonte]

Because he's a prince. He's not a MAGA guy, he's a libertarian.

[Ian Crossland]

And also it's a continuing resolution. Which was the whole topic of debate was, let's not do another continuing resolution. Then Matt Gaetz left and like, where's that conversation? And Massey's still like, no, I'm not doing another continuing resolution. No slide crap in.

[Phil Labonte]

Thomas Massie gets a pass, in my opinion, because, because he's always making the same principled, libertarian, principled votes.

[Mark Mitchell]

Would he have put these, Pardon me, Would he have killed the vote?

[Phil Labonte]

I don't think, no. No, it would have passed without him.

[Mark Mitchell]

No.

[Elad Eliyahu]

But if it came down to it.

[Mark Mitchell]

If he was the deciding vote, I.

[Phil Labonte]

Think he probably would have. Yeah.

[Elad Eliyahu]

Okay, so it was all for self aggrandizement then. This was all for, I'm not going.

[Phil Labonte]

To argue, I'm not going to argue what he's thinking and I'm not going to argue with you about your personal opinion of Thomas Massey.

[Mark Mitchell]

No, I respect people who have, you know, consistent set of principles and they're trying to make decisions based on that.

[Elad Eliyahu]

I respect Donald Trump trying to primary him. Well, not him, but encouraging somebody else to.

[Mark Mitchell]

That's. I was not going to happen begging for the government to be shut down just because I wanted to prove. I've been saying like, people are begging for it. They want the government shut down and like, how stupid can you be to like, like doge would run rampant through all different branches and they never do it. It's like every time.

[Phil Labonte]

No, but yeah, it's, it's a good super chat. Thomas Massey. Thomas Massie's perspective is not because he has some kind of bone to pick with Donald Trump. It's because he has he. What he believes are principled opinions and he stands by them. It's not about, oh, I don't like Donald Trump. There are plenty of things where Thomas Massie has been like, no, I want to work with Donald Trump on this. I want to work with Donald Trump on that. And he's been, he's been complimentary.

[Elad Eliyahu]

These libertarians are so squishy. Rand Paul also was like anti deporting people or something earlier too. These libertarians don't want to put the.

[Phil Labonte]

Effort into understanding their principles. That's, that's on you.

[Tim Pool]

Travis Booth says it was cool seeing the Tim Cast truck on the right on the track at Martinsville last weekend. If you ever want to expand into different forms of motorsports, Tim Cast would look good on the hood of my drag car. Shout out to Cody Dennison, professional race car and truck driver, and he drives the Tim Cast machine. So I guess we're going to be in a video game, which is sick.

[Phil Labonte]

Oh, awesome.

[Tim Pool]

Yeah. You're going to be able to drive the Tim Cast car in a NASCAR game, I think it is. Or something like that. I don't know. I'm definitely getting it. I love racing games.

[Mark Mitchell]

Awesome.

[Tim Pool]

Super cool.

[Ian Crossland]

You should get one of those wheel, like the, the whole setup with pedals and like.

[Tim Pool]

Yeah, we can set it up in there and then we could have Cody come and we'll film him and be like, you better win. Actually have him drive his own car. Let's grab some more. Rootless redneck says military officers are college grads who largely side with Military Inc. The junior enlisted aren't going to disobey their officers for better or for. Or worse. Yep.

[Mark Mitchell]

Yeah, that's right. I was a military officer 0106 and everybody's like, I just want to go over there and kill some. I mean it was literally like, you know, the Team America meme came out and everybody was saying Dirk. Like it was. Yep, that's what the military was. The officers were very gung ho. And I think what the problem is.

[Tim Pool]

I am not a fan of that.

[Mark Mitchell]

Yeah, no, I hate it when people.

[Elad Eliyahu]

Infantilize the troops though.

[Ian Crossland]

So literally infantilization, that's what that's all about.

[Tim Pool]

You, you have like a 40 year old NCO and he's supposed to be taking orders from some like 23 year old college grad. Yeah, that is the stupidest thing I've ever heard.

[Phil Labonte]

Yeah, there's always a, there's always very different. There's. There's also a senior enlisted guy that shadows the young officer.

[Tim Pool]

Right, right, right.

[Elad Eliyahu]

So.

[Tim Pool]

Well, because.

[Phil Labonte]

No, well, I've had people, sensibly, I've.

[Tim Pool]

Had people explain to me that like these young guys out of college who are commissioned know not to disrespect the NCOs, but it is stupid. That's a ridiculous, ridiculous system.

[Mark Mitchell]

There's. I was on a nuclear sub. There are very big reasons why you need conformity and authority and following orders. And so besides the leadership aspect, which you can grow into as an officer, and some of them are very good and better than others, there's an aspect of that authority has to come from somewhere and it needs to be like sacrosanct. Now in an operational setting, but at the same time, like, they can bust you down. And on the submarine, there were very few lines between the officers and the enlisted.

[Tim Pool]

Is. Are there. Can. Can NCOs just go to school and get trained to become a commissioned officer?

[Mark Mitchell]

Yeah, absolutely.

[Tim Pool]

That. That. Right. That. That I can respect. But it is, it does. It does seem silly to me that through college training you're going to outrank somebody who's got two decades of service behind them there. I find there to be issues with that.

[Mark Mitchell]

The idea is you're getting also ostensibly indoctrinated into your responsibilities of leadership that include ethics and integrity. And so there it's this aspect of.

[Tim Pool]

And communism. Communists now these days, the comp.

[Mark Mitchell]

Oh, maybe. Yeah. I don't know. Like, there were civilian professors at the academy. I'm sure there are more now.

[Tim Pool]

Hegseth is fixing it also. I'm pretty. I'm pretty happy with what's going on.

[Mark Mitchell]

Yeah.

[Tim Pool]

I just thought, you know, I. The way it used to be was a commissioned officer. Was a commissioned officer. Now it's a college grad.

[Mark Mitchell]

Yeah.

[Phil Labonte]

Yeah.

[Tim Pool]

Is there. Are there circumstances where there's just like some guy who's a massive expert in his field? Let's say there's a guy who was a police officer. He enlisted, he did combat, he came back, joined a private military company, worked with that company on. On private missions, ended up becoming one of the top. PMC is running security operations for the government. Could they go to him, he's a high school dropout, and say, we're going to commission you to be an officer in the armed forces.

[Mark Mitchell]

They might have the capability. That's just not the way the military rolls. It's so different than corporate America, which I worked in. Corporate America, like, worships specialization now and they really want to hire, like, experts. But in the military, it's like, no, you're a generalist and a leader and that counts for a lot. So they will take you from one kind of boat, put you on another one. They'll put you in charge of a base, which you've never done before. They'll throw you into anything and you're expected to figure it out fricking quick and do it. And like, I've been thrown into some really interesting settings and it's like, oh, I see what's going on here. Yeah, generalist, unagreeable generalist leaders are what I think corporate America needs more of. And that's what the idea of being an officer like, cultivates a very strong mindset. Of making decisive, you know, like, decisions based on limited information, being able to balance right versus wrong.

[Tim Pool]

Isn't there a risk of demoralization when the guy who comes in, who's never been at this base before, starts doing things that the, the enlisted know is going to screw things up? I hear that a lot.

[Mark Mitchell]

Training leaders like you should be smart enough not to come in and just screw things up. And in practice, they generally do not. And it works really well. They haven't had a nuclear reactor accident like on a submarine. And you know, obviously they rickover put a lot of thought in it and they do it in other places in the military too. But if there's something that you have to be an expert on, they create a body of knowledge to feed you. There are procedures. This is how we train them. This is what they get trained on. And so if I go from one sub to another and it's different. I know that. Well, I don't know this like reactor, I've got to go read the procedure and, and stuff like that. And in corporate America, it's just a free for all. And like, yeah, they're the college people. Like, that is a problem. Like even back in, oh, five, you know, we weren't allowed to talk politics in the wardroom. Like, it was just. Weren't allowed to. But this one, one guy came in, he was from ocs, which means you just came out of college. You went to like, indoctrination for 12 weeks and then congratulations, you're an officer. And he. And in the middle of one of the meals, he's like, oh, yeah, I worked on the Kerry campaign. Everyone is like, what? It was the funniest thing. And then he had.

[Tim Pool]

I thought you weren't allowed to say you were gay.

[Mark Mitchell]

That was the equivalent in 2004. What?

[Phil Labonte]

In sailors.

[Ian Crossland]

One awesome thing you mentioned is how like, officers are basically growing people to become generalists, like epic generalists. And they actually call the role the gen general because that is the point is that you are a generalist, you know.

[Mark Mitchell]

Yeah. Use your people. Use your people. And that's what officers are trained to do. Yeah.

[Ian Crossland]

And just to tap it off, you tell better, better stories because you're an officer. Are you still considered an officer even though you retired?

[Mark Mitchell]

No, I'm not. No.

[Tim Pool]

Okay.

[Ian Crossland]

But in Vietnam, like, a young lieutenant comes in, yo, they're going to step back and let the NCO lead if they're in combat and otherwise they.

[Tim Pool]

Yeah, yeah, I know these are kind of like rudimentary questions, just general service stuff. But could you go back and resume your position?

[Mark Mitchell]

I could have up until I think the age of 31. I love being on submarines. I would have been a career. They do a lot of really, really, really stupid things.

[Phil Labonte]

You love being on a submarine, really?

[Mark Mitchell]

Oh, it's actually I was amazing approach an attack. Like I got to shoot two nuclear missiles. I got to literally.

[Phil Labonte]

Oh, really hug the, on a boomer then.

[Mark Mitchell]

Yeah.

[Tim Pool]

Okay.

[Mark Mitchell]

And you know, a lot for, for somebody that's on a boomer to say they love it, they love it. But man, I'll tell you, you know, about a third of officers at the time were coming out of the academy and what their beginning began a very like revolving door to corporate America. Like a, an industry of junior military officer recruiters feeding people into blue chips. And in O4, I think it was, they started this individual augmentation program because they didn't have enough officers over in Iraq. So Bush basically made it where you, if you're a Navy officer, your next shore duty, which is where you're supposed to like recharge your batteries, is going to be bomb disposal in Afghanistan or like Iraq in Baghdad. So and so my decisions were like, put my wife through my Middle east deployment or get out of the Navy. And guess who got out of the Navy? Almost all the Naval academy people who went right into blue chip companies. And yeah, it's wild.

[Tim Pool]

Do you ever hear really weird noises that freak you out?

[Mark Mitchell]

No, no.

[Tim Pool]

Just say yes anyway.

[Mark Mitchell]

No, it's just like the whales. They mix, you know.

[Tim Pool]

Oh, really? You could hear them?

[Mark Mitchell]

Yeah. Yeah.

[Tim Pool]

Oh, cool.

[Mark Mitchell]

Active sonar. Sounds ridiculous.

[Tim Pool]

I the closest I've ever come to being in a submarine is there was a docked submarine where they let people walk in and out of one. Yeah, I think it was fun. That too fun. It was very cramped.

[Mark Mitchell]

Oh, ours, ours was not crabbed.

[Tim Pool]

It was big.

[Mark Mitchell]

What is this, 25ft?

[Tim Pool]

This room is indeed 25 by 25 by like 23.

[Mark Mitchell]

I think we had a 40.

[Tim Pool]

Technically it's supposed to be 25 by 25.

[Mark Mitchell]

We had a 40 foot beam.

[Phil Labonte]

Oh, wow.

[Tim Pool]

Whoa. That's huge.

[Mark Mitchell]

Yeah. Four floors. Whoa. Five hundred and sixty feet. 18, 000 tons, dude.

[Tim Pool]

Like a gym in there.

[Phil Labonte]

You're playing basketball, gym equipment.

[Mark Mitchell]

Yeah.

[Phil Labonte]

What kind of submarine is it? Los Angeles class?

[Mark Mitchell]

No, I was on a Ohio class. The Nebraska? Yeah.

[Donald Trump]

Wow.

[Mark Mitchell]

My next duty would have been on an LA class. And those are way cooler. I didn't get to see any form.

[Phil Labonte]

Way cooler.

[Ian Crossland]

Are those the biggest ones, the LA class?

[Mark Mitchell]

No, they're the, they're the war fighters. So we trained, but our. Our entire mission was to hide.

[Tim Pool]

Cool.

[Mark Mitchell]

Wait for the red phone call.

[Tim Pool]

Oh. To launch the nukes. Crazy homie. Semper Ives says the expert type of commissioned officer is called a chief warrant officer. But they get their commission a little differently. Ah. How do they get those?

[Mark Mitchell]

There's so few of them. I don't. I don't think I've ever seen a warrant officer in my entire life. In all five times I was in.

[Phil Labonte]

The military, only time I ever saw any warrant officers is they were helicopter pilots in the Marine Corps.

[Mark Mitchell]

Okay. Yeah, makes sense.

[Tim Pool]

How do they get their commissions? Do you know?

[Phil Labonte]

I don't know.

[Tim Pool]

Interesting.

[Phil Labonte]

You have to be. You have to be some kind of officer to fly in anything. If you're a pilot, you're some kind of officer. You can be a warrant officer and be a pilot as well.

[Tim Pool]

Really? Have fun, my friends. Smash the like button. Share the show with everyone. You know we're going to that members only call in show [e-mail] Timcast IRL. You got to be a Rumble premium user, so use promo code TIM10. You'll get 10 bucks off your annual membership. Sign up now because we're gonna be taking your calls from the Tim Cast Discord. It'll be fun. You can follow me on X and Instagram at Timcast. Mark, do you want to shout anything out?

[Mark Mitchell]

Yeah, I. If you can tell from tonight, I. There's no filter. I tell you exactly everything I think. And that's important, I think, for a pollster because there's so much dishonesty in the industry and the way that polls are used in the industry. So if you like that, follow us at Rasmussen underscore poll at Honest Pollster on Twitter. We have YouTube channel and we stream Monday, Wednesday, Friday, 9:00 Eastern.

[Tim Pool]

Eastern.

[Elad Eliyahu]

Mark, it's been really fun talking to you. I think your pollster stuff, I mean, it was an interesting conversation. You do great work over at Ras Rasmussen. Did I say it right?

[Mark Mitchell]

Rasmussen.

[Elad Eliyahu]

Rasmussen. I'm a lot. Eliyahu. You could find me on Instagram and Twitter under that handle. I do White House reporting here at Tim Cast. Ian.

[Ian Crossland]

Yes. Got a super chat from Steph. Steve is Stephen Schofnoff Schonhoff. Thank you. General came from the title Captain General. Ian, Way too much to fit into a super chat. Got you.

[Mark Mitchell]

Yeah.

[Ian Crossland]

I don't know. I'm not saying that they generally are like, okay, this is the. Because it's. He's doing a lot of General labor. We'll call him the General, but I just noticed that correlation. Thank you for. Thank you for the super chat. I'm Ian Crossland. Happy to be here.

[Tim Pool]

Phil.

[Ian Crossland]

I love you, man.

[Phil Labonte]

I love you.

[Ian Crossland]

I like when you smile when I.

[Phil Labonte]

Talk, so you kill me, man. Brother, I enjoy. I enjoy hanging out with you. Tell the world I am Phil. It remains on Twix. I'm Filler remains official on Instagram. The band is all that remains. Our new record dropped on January 31st. It's called antifragile. You can stream it on the Internet. You know the places. Don't forget the left lane is for crime.

[Tim Pool]

Rumble.com Timcast, IRL for the uncensored call in show in about 30 seconds. We'll see you all there. SA.