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- [00:00]
Adam Kinzinger
Did I talk too much? Can I just let it go? I wish I would stop thinking so much.
- [00:06]
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- [01:41]
Charlie Sykes
I'm Charlie Sykes. Welcome back to to the Contrary podcast, joined by. He needs no introduction. Adam Kinzinger. Adam, welcome back. Appreciate it.
- [01:49]
Adam Kinzinger
Good to see you, my friend. How are you?
- [01:51]
Charlie Sykes
So I heard you the other day describing how, you know, you travel a lot, you go all around the country and, you know, people come up to you at the airport and they say stuff, but you said that nobody's ever come up and gotten in your face. You've never had anybody who, like. Yeah, I mean, you know, given the tone of everything. So what do you make of that? Like, people, I mean, on social media, people are going to take a shot at anything, right? But. But they do not come up and confront you. I noticed as well, by the way.
- [02:21]
Adam Kinzinger
Yeah, it's weird. And I don't, you know, look, I'm not encouraging people to come up and confront me, so it's not like I'm like begging for it. But, but look, it's. I, I think it's, it's combination of things. Number one, it's, you know, if you see, it's not that I, you know, I'm certainly smart enough to know that there are people that see me, that hate me, and they probably. Maybe there's a little intimidation. You see somebody on TV and then you see them in real life. Maybe it's, you know, people may be a little more decent in, you know, face to face than they are on the Internet, when you can kind of hide behind that layer of interaction. But, yeah, it's true. I mean, the closest I've ever gotten, two things. So, towards my last year in Congress, I remember I was standing in line at a convenience store in my district, and a guy turned around and told me that I should be more supportive of Donald Trump. And I basically told him because I wasn't running again. I'm like, dude, I really don't care what you think. You're not going to have a chance to vote for me again. And then I was at a airport in Salt Lake City, and some guy sat down and he goes, hey, you know, I see you on the January six committee. I'm like, yeah. He goes, you don't really believe that stuff you're saying, right? And then I just shut him down. But that was it, man. Nobody's come up and yelled crazy.
- [03:25]
Charlie Sykes
That pretty much is the kind of the end of the conversation. No, see, I have the same experience, but I usually attribute that to just, you know, Midwestern nice that nobody does anything. You know, every once in a while, you'll. You'll catch sight of somebody who's, like, looking and like, you know, like, you know, doing something, but they. They don't want to do it. I also think that maybe, you know, because you're on TV and a congressman and stuff, people are thinking that he's got to be traveling with security. There's, like, a guy. That's true. Who's nearby. Because I remember, I won't mention who it was. I was at an airport, and I did see somebody who's relatively prominent, and I tried to go up and say hi to them, and I was cut off, like, right away. It was like I was not going to get to that person. Fine.
- [04:07]
Adam Kinzinger
Anyway, so that is funny, because I get that. That actually happens to me. Like, people kind of look around and then come over and talk to me.
- [04:13]
Charlie Sykes
Yeah, that's right. Where's the guy with the. With the thing with the thing in his ear? Okay, we have so much to talk about. We had the big election from last week, which was, you know, I mean, Democrats kind of run the table. What does that actually mean? In and off here? We had that kind of remarkable argument in front of The Supreme Court, where conservative justices actually were acting like they were conservative justices on the tariff thing. And it was. It was kind of a wow. And of course, the passing of Dick Cheney. But before we get into any of that stuff, so tell me about your movie, because the movie came out and I have to confess, I have not yet seen it. So make me want to watch a movie about you.
- [04:54]
Adam Kinzinger
Yeah, listen, this is. And I want everybody to know I have no financial interest in this. I don't make a dime. I'm just the subject. But it's called the Last Republican. And they followed me basically, kind of that last, you know, basically from January six to, like, you know, about a year out of Congress. And. And it's the thing that's amazing about it. So I had, like, probably 100 people that wanted to do a documentary, and all of them wanted to do like, the horse race. Are you going to run again? Can you win? And I'm like, I have no interest in that. They were interested in the human element. And so the director, who actually plays a character really in this. In this film, his name, Steve Pink, he did Hot Tub Time Machine. Hilarious movie. And also, gross, point blank, high fidelity. And anyway, he's huge lefty. I mean, big time lefty. We. And we always joke with each other. And that actually makes it in the movie a lot where, you know, he calls me till of the hunt. I call him, you know, basically a communist. But what this does, so it documents, you know, throughout the whole January 6th stuff, you have cinematic films from the floor of the hearing, which exists nowhere else. And then it has the human layer of, like, him and I and our interaction and how somebody from the left and the right can actually get along and grow to respect each other. And then you see the human toll of what it. I mean, really, I'm still coming to grips with the. To the psychological toll that all this has taken on me and my family. I mean, I got married a week before the COVID lockdowns. We go through Covid, January 6th. You know, that stuff, losing friends, all this, having a kid. And you see all of that, and it's just a good human story. And look, of all the reviews, it's gotten blown away. Great reviews. So I would encourage people to take a look. You, Charlie, you can. We're going to find it on demand. So it's on Apple TV. You can find it Google, YouTube and YouTube TV. I mean, and then Amazon. So it's on all the.
- [06:48]
Charlie Sykes
So what do they call you? The Last Republican?
- [06:51]
Adam Kinzinger
Well, I didn't come up with a name, but I think, you know, as I kind of see it, it's like the party moved for me. Right, you feel the same way. I mean, your views haven't changed besides what I would consider like maybe maturing and kind of like looking at things. You know, having the ability to look at things from outside the party can cause you to change a little bit. But the party moved for me. And so in reality, when you see this under the understanding of like, I'm kind of the last real Republican, it makes sense. Now, obviously there are other real Republicans, but I think it's a strong, makes strong point also. I will tell you, Charlie, I had a situation in 06 in Milwaukee where a guy was murdering his girlfriend and I intervened on that and you actually see the, the footage of it. So that's an interesting part of that.
- [07:35]
Charlie Sykes
So it must be a surreal experience to watch this. You know, those, those hearings were just a couple of years ago, actually. We've just hit the one year anniversary of Donald Trump's reelection and it feels like a lifetime. Like we've been through some sort of historical epoch, and yet it's only a couple of years ago. So is it kind of surreal just to watch that? You were there on the January 6th Committee, you were a Republican in good standing. Five minutes before that, you became MAGA enemy number one or number two. And now you're out here and the world looks totally different.
- [08:15]
Adam Kinzinger
Look, it's weird because so we screen this at the film festivals, like Toronto, you know, all the film festivals. And that was before the election last year. So you were, I was watching it with like a sense of optimism, like this is what happened, elections coming up. Certainly we're not going to repeat that mistake. It's a very emotional film for me to watch because I can.
- [08:34]
Charlie Sykes
Yeah.
- [08:35]
Adam Kinzinger
In my face. I know exactly what I was thinking. It's, it's interesting to be in a film because you know, you know what you were thinking at every moment. I get choked up a lot watching it because it's just very, very personal. But then when it came out, you know, On Demand and I saw it again after the film festivals and now there's a different feeling. Donald Trump won again. Right. It's, it's a, it's a sour note. And so it's very hard from that perspective to watch it. But I also think it's important because there's a lot of lessons for the future in it, which is like, look, this is a lost battle. The whole January 6th thing certainly was a lost battle. It's not a lost war. And I. And I do think someday, and this will be part of that, actually, people are going to look back on January 6th with the disdain that it deserves. And the people that were involved with the disdain that they deserve. Kevin McCarthy, for God's sakes, I make the point all over the film. He is the guy, the man responsible for where we are today. And so, yeah, it's hard to watch it from that perspective, but I think also very important because of that.
- [09:36]
Charlie Sykes
Yeah. So tell me about Kevin McCarthy, because I heard you say that in another video. What was the role that Kevin McCarthy played? I think I know what you're referring to, but why do you hold him so responsible for all the shitstorm that hit us?
- [09:51]
Adam Kinzinger
I hold him in deep contempt, actually. So January 1st, I'm on a call with him and all The Republican congressmen.
- [09:59]
Charlie Sykes
January 1, 2021.
- [10:02]
Adam Kinzinger
Yes. Right. So five days before the 6th. Yeah. And. And I say to him, I'm the first kind of guy in the queue to talk. And I say to him, because that's the moment he announces he's actually going to vote against certification, which shocked everybody, because typically leaders will take the hard vote. And unfortunately, the hard vote was voting to certify the election. So he gets on and says, I'm not going to vote to certify. You know, Cheney is like, basically, f you. And then I go, I'm speaking. And I go, kevin, dude, you have convinced half of the country or at least half of the Republican Party that the election was stolen. I'm like, our country was founded on violent rebellion against this idea of no representation. And when you say an election was stolen, you're saying, you have no representation, you have no voice. And I go, there's going to be violence on the 6th. There's going to be violence. And he just said to me, okay, next caller. That was the response. Next fellow operator. And so the six comes around, you know, the whole history of that. And then so basically, from the 7th until a certain day, I'll mention there was dead silence. I mean, I remember listening to the bulwark to you on the 7th. It's like, this is. This is. This is the moment we turn away. That was the conversation everywhere. And. And it was like crickets in the GOP caucus. Now I have deep regrets. And I talk about this in the. In the film, because I was trying to get the other nine impeachers to basically take over the party, try to remove McCarthy. We would become a clearinghouse for who packs can give to and not. And I think we had a fighting chance to win that fight. And unfortunately, honest with you, nine other impeachers went silent. They thought we could heal the party. And I never thought we could, but.
- [11:39]
Charlie Sykes
A lot of people did.
- [11:41]
Adam Kinzinger
Yeah. Yeah. And so it's crickets until one moment. And I think the date was the 29th of January around there. And that is Kevin McCarthy goes to Mar A Lago. And that was a moment. And I can feel it, I can see it, I can crystal clear remember it when I saw that picture, all of a sudden it's like we made our decision. And Kevin made his decision because for three weeks he's sitting around thinking, can I beat Mag and still become speaker? And he came to the decision that he couldn't. And so what do you do? You embrace maga? Listen, Charlie, Donald Trump had nobody at Andrews when he left. He, he leaves Andrews and nobody's there. His kids, that's it. It's barely covered in the media. He puts out no message, he's embarrassed, he's in a fight with his daughter. He's Persona non grata. And then Kevin McCarthy shows up. And when he showed up, he put. It's like, it's like the ambulance showing up to cardiac arrest and taking those paddles and bringing somebody back to life. And that's what he frickin did. That's what he owns.
- [12:47]
Charlie Sykes
That is exactly correct. You know, and you know, you want to talk about the hinges of faith, the hinges of history, know that period from January 6th to that moment, you know, the. You could feel all of the different possible timelines, all the different choices that could be made. Because on January 7, I remember talking about it, I mean, it felt of all, you know, complete vindication for those of us who had opposed Trump. And everybody in the Republican Party had just moved on. Everybody had decided to. Members of his cabinet had quit. There was just no question about it. He had disgraced himself and he was done. So January 20th comes along and he gets on that helicopter and he leaves. And it felt like the end of an era. And Republicans could have gone a different direction. That's why those hinges of fate, you know, rest on, on such small decisions by very, very small men. And there are a few smaller than Kevin McCarthy. And you're right, that was the moment when I saw that picture of him down at Mar A Lago, I said, wow, they're going to resurrect this guy. They're going to make him acceptable again.
- [13:50]
Adam Kinzinger
Yeah. And listen, Charlie, here's You make the point about small decisions. And I, you know, I have no idea if what I did will play a role in history or have an effect. I don't know. But I do know this Kevin McCarthy, you know, a small man who took his. His personal desire to be speaker, and congrats, Kevin, you were the shortest speaker in modern history. Awesome. And. And you got kicked out. Okay? So great. Good job. And also, you got your butt kicked at Prop 50. Secondly, you look at people like Mitch McConnell, who is now trying to resurrect himself by being this truth teller who could have said, could have. I'm voting to sustain the impeachment of Trump. And he would have gotten the other Republicans with him, a significant amount of them, and Trump wouldn't have been able to run again. And you think about all those little decisions, all. And, and they are, yes, they're powerful people that make them, but in their minds, they're regular people. Everybody has an opportunity to make a decision. And they cowarded out, they chickened out because they couldn't see themselves, you know, turning against the tribe, I guess, you know, and they have to live with that.
- [14:57]
Charlie Sykes
Well, and they also just maybe figured that things would take care of themselves without them falling on their own swords, you know, that after the election of the people who said, okay, what's the downside of humoring Donald Trump if he actually thought he won? What could possibly happen? Because surely, you know, this will work itself out. A lot of other people figured, okay, I'm going to. I am not going to take agency for a leadership role because somebody else will do it for me.
- [15:25]
Adam Kinzinger
Right.
- [15:25]
Charlie Sykes
And I think that that's one of those big dividing lines, and we have a. Of those things that led us to where we're at. No, I was thinking about you and other Republicans with the passing of Dick Cheney and of course, the role that his daughter played and what an extraordinary final chapter he had. And, you know, unfortunately, we have this horseshoe politics now where people on the left and on the right, if you're a maga, right, you hate the Cheneys. If you're on the left, you still hate the Cheneys. And so kind of a reminder that, you know what? People can change and people can make fundamental moral decisions. You can, you can. And the thing about legacies is they're complicated. All of us in our lives, we make bad choices, we make bad mistakes. If you get hung up like, well, 20 years ago, Adam Kinzinger said to Charlie Sykes, X, Y and Z, okay, well, that happened. But are we going to give credit to, to the choices that people made when it really counted. And a lot of these, the people on the left who will say that, you know, this fight for democracy is the existential fight of our lifetime and yet, you know, are reluctant to give credit to Republicans like you or conservatives like me, who in fact said, no, we're not going to be part of all of that. And you've talked about this. The superpower that Donald Trump has, Donald Trump's going to forgive everybody. Maga's going to accept everybody. And this is kind of a lesson, isn't?
- [16:55]
Adam Kinzinger
Is, look, I mean, literally, if you, if you put out a show that said I decided I'm I love Donald Trump, you'd be at the White House the next day. I mean, that's the thing. You couldn't do it twice, but you could do it that once. And yeah, I mean, this is the thing that bothers me, Charlie, a lot is, you know, people tell me, and I think, by the way, I want to be clear, the vast majority of what I will say, I guess just generic Democrats, I think, do understand this point, but the loud side doesn't, which is if you really, really believe what you're saying, if you really believe democracy is at stake and that is a threat, if you really believe that, right. There is no difference than what is. I mean, there's a difference in how it's enacted. But like, if you think about Ukraine being invaded by Russia, all of a sudden you look in the trench and there's a guy that played the piano, a guy that, you know, was a machinist and probably a college professor. All of them have nothing in common. They probably all voted differently, but they are in the trench together, putting their life on the line to fight the Russian hordes. This is politically that moment we're at. If you truly, truly believe democracy is at stake, there is nothing else that can come in the way between alliances. Because your different view on whatever it is, guns or taxation or whatever, doesn't matter if you don't have a democracy. And so Dick Cheney, I get it, you don't like that we went into Iraq. I will actually probably guess, though, that you probably supported Iraq when it happened like everybody else did. And, but I get it, you know, you can be upset about that, but he came around and did something amazing, which is one of the few former elected republic. I mean, George Bush didn't speak out nearly like Dick Cheney did. And, and, you know, and I think we have to honor that. I honor his service all around. I think he was a man that meant well. They made a mistake. We make, like you mentioned, we make mistakes every day, but we're not making decisions about whether to go to war in Iraq or not. Those are big, consequential decisions, but his honor cannot be questioned. And I think we have to get to a point where we, we can have differences, but the real difference should be is somebody trying to act honorably or not. And that should be the divide.
- [19:06]
Charlie Sykes
I think so. Well, I think so. And because before we move on, because I want to talk about the election and some of the other things, move on from Kevin McCarthy. Kevin McCarthy played a rather significant role in the California referendum, didn't he? He went, he went all in on trying to defeat Gavin Newsom's referendum that will allow California to do two redistrict. I mean, that, you know, as part of the Democratic sweep of last week. I mean, I expected it was going to pass, but I don't think anybody expected it was going to win by that huge margin. So Kevin McCarthy, swing and miss again.
- [19:39]
Adam Kinzinger
Yeah. And he's, look, I kind of ruefully, I don't know if that's the right word rooted for him when he was trying to go against like Matt Gaetz, you know, but he failed. He's failing at. He's trying to do politically now. And that's what's crazy is this is the dude. This goes to show how fortunes can change or how honor matters is like on his third term, he was the third most powerful Republican. I mean, that is, that's a political feat that is almost impossible to match. He's a great, was a fantastic politician, I'll give him that. Right. He remembers, he would always text me and talk about. He was friends with my mom and everybody's mom. Right. But now he's failing. And he put in, he brought a lot of big donors. I think Charlie Munger was one of them. A lot of big donors to try to beat Prop 50. And not only didn't they beat it, it got, I mean, I don't, I think it probably got more yeses than Kamala Harris got votes in California. But, I mean, Democrats were fired up. And, and the point is, look, I, I think you and I, and probably almost everybody in California likes the idea of fair maps, and we want fair maps and independent redistricting. But the second Texas made a decision to kind of violate the norms, Democrats had to fight back, and they made it a referendum on Trump. And it's pretty clear what California as a whole thinks of Trump.
- [20:55]
Charlie Sykes
I think you know, you mentioned Texas, and I heard you make this point. And, you know, there are other larger points, but one of the things that we saw in the election last week was that it turns out that Republicans might have been renting Hispanic votes rather than buying them. One of the theories behind what they're doing, what Republicans are doing in Texas, is they're kind of drawing districts with the assumption that Hispanics will continue their drift to the right. This may turn out to be kind of a delusion. Right. Because yes, you did have Hispanic voters that were willing to vote for Donald Trump and were willing to vote for Republicans. But you look at the exit polls in Virginia and in New Jersey, and it would certainly suggest that they are disillusioned whether they're coming home or not. So what do you think? I mean, that may. I mean, in terms of just the raw numbers, this Texas thing may not play out the way Republicans think.
- [21:57]
Adam Kinzinger
Yeah. By the way, as a side note, I'm going to be interested in the black male vote as well, because that was swinging wildly Republican. Look, I. And this is a question. I mean, you know, my wife's Hispanic, and she makes the point all the time. She's like, hispanics are not a monolith. Right. She's Salvadorian. There's Cubans, there's you, Argentinians, you know, Mexicans.
- [22:17]
Charlie Sykes
And.
- [22:17]
Adam Kinzinger
And they all have different interests. It's like you and I voting as Germans. Right. Like, we.
- [22:22]
Charlie Sykes
Right.
- [22:22]
Adam Kinzinger
We don't. I mean, we have cultural Germanics, but, you know, but I think what's clear is Hispanics gave Donald Trump the vote because they felt economic insecurity. They actually are kind of hawkish on immigration. This is a big mistake Democrats have made is assuming that Hispanics just want to open the door. They don't. But they also see people that look like them being harassed and being carted basically, you know, based on the fact that they're brown. You and I don't have to worry about getting pulled over by CBP and questioned. They do, you know. Yeah. And I think every one of them. And by the way, the Supreme Court has said that they could do that. Like, you can. You can pull somebody over on the basis of their race. Yeah. And so anyway, so I think you saw a massive, like, kind of, whoa, that's not what we voted for. Now, here's the danger for the Democrats is this is not a message that they want open borders. They still want border control. Because every Hispanic that is voting came here the right way because contrary to Donald Trump's Comments Illegals can't vote. So all those that came here legally, they did it the right way and they want everybody else to have to do it the same way because they did it the hard way. And so. But they want compassion and humanity. And I think what you see right now, if I had to guess in kind of the monolithic Hispanic vote, is they still have economic insecurity and they are not wed really well to either party. And they're probably wildly swinging back and forth collectively trying to figure out where they belong party wise. And it's up for grabs. And hopefully the Democrats can, can get this because, you know, that's, that's obviously the largest growing minority.
- [24:09]
Charlie Sykes
Well, and obviously we'll determine, you know, which way a lot of these key states go in 2026 and 2028. Let me throw an idea out at you because I know there was a lot of, you know, you know, punditry after the election. Donald Trump blamed it on the shutdown. I'm a little skeptical about that. Obviously the economy, you know, cutting against Trump. Trump is clearly losing his edge on the economy. But one of the factors that seems to have played an outsized, you know, impact on the election, particularly among young voters, were the videos, the ICE videos, those pictures which have gone viral. Everybody has them on their phone, everybody is seeing them. You're on TikTok, you're on YouTube, you're seeing these, you know, mass, you know, brute squad, you know, ICE agents, you know, throwing grandmas to the ground, breaking windows, you know, helicoptering into apartment buildings. And I wondered early on, you know, when those pictures, you know, what impact those pictures would have. Because it's one thing to say I want secure border, I want illegal, you know, deported. It's quite something different when you're seeing the human face. So I think the videos played a big role and that's something that I don't see Trump pivoting on. I don't see MAGA moving away from that at all.
- [25:25]
Adam Kinzinger
I don't either. And here's the interesting thing is like, I think a lot of it is, you know, when we have a government for the first time that exists entirely in the online sphere, right. I mean, they watch Newsmax and they look at X and they make decisions on the basis of that and what you, what's cool to do on X. And I get into, I do this sometimes too much is like to troll people. Right, right. And so they took trolling on X to a new level and now they do it from government accounts. Think of the Department of Labor posters, they put out with the, you know, the good looking, strong white guy. And it's always about like, you know, America for Americans. Clearly trying to troll and also send a message. Well, look, if I'm a Hispanic person, I'm gonna look at that and go like, is that saying. Or from a woman even, is that saying, that's not for me, that this place isn't for me? And then, yes, the videos. And the videos are not just, you know, throwing grandmas to the ground or pulling people out of school lines. It's American citizens being arrested, harassed, knocked down, shot in the. With pepper balls. And then a guy with an SS jacket. Sure, yeah, it's a cavalry jacket. But walking around Chicago without a horse and having a. Yeah, having a jacket with a hat and a freaking thing. And then when people made fun of him, they put out basically a troll you Nazi video. Like, yeah, yeah, it turns out we don't want to be Nazis in this country. And, and, and look, I, I would encourage. I'm kind of mixed on this because, like, there's my, there's my regular side that really wants good governance, and then there's my side that's like, yeah, Republicans, keep doing it. Keep doing it and see where it leads. Right. See what the American people think. But I also don't really want them to because I don't want us to become numb to that.
- [27:07]
Charlie Sykes
Yeah. I mean, that is the danger. And of course, there's something about that whole ethos that is so exciting. You know, there's so many things that come to mind about this. I'm trying to think since the last time you and I talked, so Donald Trump was floating. The idea of a third term appears to have backed off. I think people are free to take him at his word. I still don't take him at his word. Nothing is settled with Donald Trump. It's government. It's economy by whim. Where do you come down on this? What do you think about Trump? Third, because I just, I have a hard time imagining him declaring himself, yes, I am a lame duck. You know. Yeah, yeah, let's talk about J.D. vance and Marco Rubio, not me.
- [27:53]
Adam Kinzinger
Yeah, I think he's going to try to keep this alive to an extent, but I don't think he's. I, I'm not worried about it. I do think we need to kind of be on our guard about it. I just think the, the Constitution is so blatantly clear about this. I even, I reread it. 22nd Amendment, I think. I guess I reread it and it's like, it even has a caveat in there. Like, if you were vice president when you became president, that counts as a term. And so, you know, he's kind of floated, well, I can run as vice president and the president can resign. I just don't think there's any wiggle room for it. But also, if I was Donald Trump and my goal, which he doesn't care about the party, I think people need to understand that, like, he doesn't care about the party. And so. But my goal would be to try to keep down competitors. And as long as Donald Trump is keeping alive the possibility that he can run again, your Marco Rubio's, your JD Vance's are going to kind of be quiet and kind of stay underground. The second it becomes obvious he's not running again, there will be a civil war in the gop. You're seeing it already. It's like, right? It is. They are trying to keep the lid on the steam, but it's going to, it's going to blow.
- [29:04]
Charlie Sykes
And can we be Nazis? Can we not be Nazis? Okay, so let's talk about this because. So we had two major things happen in the last week that go to the question of does this actually affect Donald Trump's power? Now, with all the caveats that off year elections are sometimes shaky predictors, they don't actually affect his actual power. It was a shellacking from coast to coast, obviously sending a very clear message about Donald Trump's popularity. And then you had that moment in the US Supreme Court where I think that Donald Trump has been really, really nervous about this case involving the tariffs. But he's also been, I think, counting on the Supreme Court continuing to give him the green lights to do whatever he wants, including maybe a third term. And what happened was that literally the day after he suffers these massive electoral losses, you have three conservative justices, his appointees, expressing a great deal of skepticism about whether or not his tariffs are unconstitutional. Now, so give me your sense of how this affects Trump's power, because, you know, a lot of that power has been the perception of power. Right?
- [30:20]
Adam Kinzinger
Right.
- [30:21]
Charlie Sykes
You cannot resist it. No one's gonna check him. No one's gonna stop him. Election obviously emboldens the opposition, and then suddenly these conservative Supreme Court justices remember that they're actually conservatives. What do you, what do you think?
- [30:37]
Adam Kinzinger
So, and the other interesting point about it is our perception that Donald Trump is unstoppable with his power. The source of that was the Supreme Court.
- [30:46]
Charlie Sykes
Yes.
- [30:47]
Adam Kinzinger
When they declared that Donald Trump is exempt from any criminal prosecution for anything, which is why the corruption has been astounding, by the way. Almost too much to even talk about. That's the problem. And so when the source, whether we consciously realize it or not, when the source of that feeling of unstoppability turns the tap off, which is what potentially could happen now. Also, I never expected the Supreme Court would give Donald Trump full immunity. So that's the caveat.
- [31:15]
Charlie Sykes
Yeah, I did not either. Yeah, yeah.
- [31:18]
Adam Kinzinger
So they may say he's got the right to the tariffs, but what I was hearing in the questions sounded like justices that were not willing to give him that power, including. I forget which one it was. That was like, so you're telling me if we give him this power, basically Congress can never pull it back? Yeah, yeah. And I, I'm listening to those questions going that. Those don't sound like people that are trying to get to. Yes. You know, and I do, honestly, a little bit, Charlie, worry about, you know, what happens with the tariffs that have been collected. Do we. You know, I hope there is a caveat that we don't reimburse them, because, I mean, I think that's a serious financial hit to have to do that. I don't know. But, like, yeah, this is. And I think once they make that decision now, the, the downside is, you know, is that it could bail out Donald Trump's economy. Right. And so politically, that's just something to be aware of. But I think it will absolutely stunt his growth, if you will. I think this election last week, plus this tariff thing will. Will probably put him at about half power, and it's going to energize Democrats.
- [32:22]
Charlie Sykes
See, I think that's right. And I have to say that I was very surprised by the arguments because I had just assumed that the court was not ever going to challenge him on something as fundamental as the tariff because of the economic impact. You know, if you have to give back billions of dollars in refunds, you know, that's the kind of thing that a John Roberts court just wouldn't do. However, this is kind of interesting because remember what really triggered Donald Trump about that Canadian ad, the Ontario government provincial ad featuring Ronald Reagan making the conservative case against tariffs. He thought that it was a way of influencing the conservative justices on the court. He has been really worried about this case, and he's been really worried about the Conservatives. And then these Conservatives come out and you have Gorsuch worrying about, you know, out of control. Executive Justice Roberts describing tariffs as taxes on the American people, Amy Cooney Barrett, asking some really, really tough questions about, well, you know, is there any limit to the government's, you know, the president's power? Is it really a matter of national security that we slap tariffs on Spain and France? I mean, are all of these about national security? There's also the major questions doctrine that supreme that the conservatives have used to strike down lots of stuff that Biden did, which is basically that if something's a major question, then Congress needs to give the president very, very explicit. You can't just assume it. And they're pointing out that in the Constitution, the power to tax Americans is specifically reserved to Congress, not the president. This law that he's saying, this emergency law does not even mention tariffs. So suddenly you got a picture that this is a court that might actually draw a red line for Donald Trump. And I kind of wonder what that does to that sort of impression of Donald Trump as being with the wind at his back, no guardrails, no check. Those two developments you think might take him down to half, half speed, which is. So this, this could actually be, have been a pivotal week, Adam. Could be.
- [34:33]
Adam Kinzinger
It could be. Yeah. And let's keep, I want to go back to the tax thing because remember, I think it was Justice Roberts that made the case that the individual mandate was a tax. Right?
- [34:42]
Charlie Sykes
Yeah, right.
- [34:43]
Adam Kinzinger
One of them, you know, with Obamacare. So throughout the individual mandate based on that now it takes about two steps to get to Obamacare. Individual mandate is a tax. You have to kind of like go through two iterations to get to tariffs as a tax, you probably have to go through just one iteration which is like the American people have to pay more and Congress had nothing to do with it. And it's a government action. And so, yeah, and you make the point about which I hadn't thought really too much about, which is how much Trump is panicked about this. He just a few days ago went off on a diet tribe. I don't know if it was, I don't remember if I read it or if I saw it where he was saying how big of a deal this is and how this could be game changing or whatever. And that is contrary to typical because typically Donald Trump declares victory no matter what. Like he sets himself up, you know, like I would have expected he would have said, well, if they throw out the terrorists, well, that's on them. I tried. Right. No, he's, he's really upset about this. And yeah, I mean, this could be a, another political mortal wound that just basically hastens the Day where he's a lame duck. I think, I think that kind of started today a little bit, or, I mean, a week ago a little bit. But, like, now you're starting to see, like, just, you know, more and more paper cuts lead to a guy that, you know, has swollen ankles and can't move around as much.
- [36:01]
Charlie Sykes
Well, I mean, I was struck by how worried he was about this case and how often he has written about it. It is as if somebody has talked to him and said, you know, these justices who are, you've been pretty confident on, you know, might actually surprise you on all of this because. And during the argument, Neil Katyal was, you know, arguing the case, and he even reminded, you know, Sam Alito, you know, that, you know, about, you know, his originalist positions on other issues. Now, Sam Alito is nothing but a hack, but obviously someone has warned him about it. That's why there is this discussion of is there, is there a plan B? But I think the larger question is if that impression that the Supreme Court does not always have his back, that rattles him. And I think that will change, I think at least, at least the perception of his power. Okay, so let's talk.
- [36:54]
Adam Kinzinger
I just want to add real quick, think about the fact, too, that every time Donald Trump gets angry and does something, you know, whether it's to a country or whatever, it always involves tariff. So you're taking away 75% or whatever of his tools that he can use or he is using to fight back and look powerful.
- [37:13]
Charlie Sykes
No, you're exact. You're exactly right. And again, look, I mean, justices read the newspaper. They follow election returns. They have seen the consequences, you hope, of the immunity decision. They see the aggregation of executive power. This will be their opportunity to do it. Now, look, they have other cases in front of them that, that may allow him, may allow Trump to more easily fire members of independent boards and bodies and things like that. But this was extraordinary. So in my newsletter the day after the election, I quoted you extensively about Mikey Sherrill, who you serve with in Congress, you know, in terms of the Democrats, you know, who is the face of the Democrats right now. And I don't really want to go down this rabbit hole, but, but, you know, there are a lot of bright and shiny objects out there that we see Democrats find. But, you know, they have two genuine stars right now, Abigail Spanberger, who won overwhelmingly, I mean, double digits in Virginia. This was a state that Glenn Youngkin won by like 8 to 10 points, you know, four years ago. And then you have Mikey Sherrill, who was supposed to be in this squeaker race in New Jersey, and she just blew the Republicans away. And the thing about them is these are really impressive candidates. You know, their backgrounds. Spamberger is a former CIA agent, as you wrote. Mikey Sherrill's a former pilot, and you described her as like, almost like the perfect central casting candidate. And if Democrats are looking for strong women, centrist candidates who can win in swing states, they have them right there, don't they?
- [38:57]
Adam Kinzinger
Totally, totally. And that's the thing is, you know, there's a lot of, like, excitement about Mondame and. And great, you know, be excited about him. But could he have won in Virginia? Maybe, but not by this kind of a margin. Same with New Jersey. And what you see in both these candidates is they weren't necessarily on the campaign trail lighting fires everywhere, like, you know, lighting people on fire with impressiveness, but they were disciplined, they stuck to it. And here's the thing. They were taking the lane that Republicans have grabbed for themselves unrightfully, which is the lane of patriotism, the lane of, like, defense and service. So you have a military pilot, you have a intelligence officer. Now, if I would have told you 10 years ago, a military pilot, an intelligence officer is running for Congress. What are they? You'd be like, oh, those are Republicans. Republicans, right.
- [39:49]
Charlie Sykes
Yeah.
- [39:50]
Adam Kinzinger
Typically in the past, that's their brain. Republicans. Yeah, that was the brand. Now, this is a great brand for Democrats because, believe it or not, Americans, actually, we may be a little disappointed now, but we still have pride in our country. We still believe that service to the country is important. And this is a great model. Now, it doesn't mean that Spanberger is basically a Republican and Democratic clothing. She's not. I mean, she's made it clear she's going to aggressively go after, like, the redistricting issues and stuff like this, this and probably will. Will, you know, govern as a typical Democrat. But that is the kind of way. Those are the kind of candidates, Charlie, that Democrats have got to win, gotta run in certain areas, especially if they want to win back. For instance, the union vote that they're losing. They're losing the union, which I never would have thought possible. And so, yeah, I think great model doesn't mean, look, if you're in the, you know, and the. The heart of la, you don't necessarily have to run a moderate. I personally wish you would, but I get it right?
- [40:47]
Charlie Sykes
Be.
- [40:48]
Adam Kinzinger
Be clear to the district. But on those swing areas, I think it's. I think it's Essential. And I think Democrats actually are way better at playing that game than Republicans are, because Republicans are just going to go with the most MAGA ever. I think Democrats are better at kind of understanding who can win and who can't.
- [41:04]
Charlie Sykes
Okay, so this is really an interesting point because. And I think it was Jonathan Martin who made the point that one of the Democrats, you know, poll cards here is that Republicans are wedded to Donald Trump. They do not dare criticize Donald Trump. They do not dare break with maga, whereas Democrats now have some flexibility. There is a little more give. But I hope they follow the model. I mean, they studied the model that you laid out for Mikey Sherrill, which is she went hard on Donald Trump, went hard against maga, but then, you know, got into the nitty gritty of growth, more affordable housing, you know, doing something about electric, the cost of electricity, doing things about property taxes, that nitty gritty affordability thing. So you're attacking Donald Trump, but you don't make it esoteric. You make it very, very, very, very tangible for voters. And that formula was incredibly successful in Virginia and New Jersey, more so than anybody saw. So, I mean, that. That there's a model there.
- [42:03]
Adam Kinzinger
Think I.
- [42:04]
Charlie Sykes
And frankly, I could see that model playing virtually in every state in the country.
- [42:08]
Adam Kinzinger
Yeah. Look, as much as I would love to see campaigns run on solely how bad Donald Trump is. Right. And run on the issue of democracy, like, because I firmly believe in that. Those aren't polling, you know, like the democracy thing. Polls. But it's like, number eight. So find the issues people care about and don't. And don't, like, take a position on the issue simply because of what the polls are saying. Be genuine. Because I think there's another lesson here. Here.
- [42:32]
Charlie Sykes
Yeah.
- [42:33]
Adam Kinzinger
Which is the. Because of how much we have let. Yeah. How much we have let people into our lives as politicians and political folks. They know they. I think people demand genuineness, and I think they can sniff out disingenuous. And so as Democrats, like, find those issues, go after Trump, don't make it all about Trump. Talk about what people care about and be genuine about it. And. Yeah. And that's it. I think that's. That's the formula.
- [43:01]
Charlie Sykes
I think the most deadly pejorative that you see is somebody is a slick politician or a slick typical politician. The moment they sniff that out, you are done. Adam Kinzinger. I gotta go see the movie On Demand, the last Republican. You know, I got it queued up. That's what I'm gonna be doing tonight.
- [43:19]
Adam Kinzinger
Let me know what you think.
- [43:21]
Charlie Sykes
I will.
- [43:22]
Adam Kinzinger
I will.
- [43:22]
Charlie Sykes
We'll talk about it maybe on the next time you show up on the podcast. Hey thank you all for listening to this episode of to the Contrary Podcast. I'm Charlie Sykes. You know why we do this? You know why Adam and keep doing this. And we'll keep doing this because we need to keep reminding you folks out there you're not alone. You are not crazy ones.
- [43:42]
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- [44:25]
Adam Kinzinger
Did I talk too much? Can I just let it go? Wish I would stop I was thinking.
- [44:29]
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