Loading summary
Transcript130 lines
- [00:00]
Brandon
Did I talk too much? Can I just let it go? I wish I would stop thinking so much.
- [00:06]
BetterHelp Announcer
Take a breath. You're not alone. Counseling helps you sort through the noise with qualified professionals. Get matched with a therapist online based on your unique needs. And get help with everyday struggles like anxiety or managing tough emotions. Visit betterhelp.com randompodcast for 10% off your first month of online therapy and let life feel better.
- [00:28]
Brandon
We quilt this city. We quilt this city with a comfy.
- [00:34]
Charlie Sykes
Roll with Quilted Northern, to be specific.
- [00:39]
Brandon
So cushy and so plushy. Just give it a try. Feeling is believing.
- [00:47]
Charlie Sykes
Quilted with three cushy layers for your comfort.
- [00:50]
Brandon
The quilted comfort of Quilted Northern. We know what's comfy, and now you do too. Keep it quilted with Quilted Northern.
- [00:59]
Stem Regen Advertiser
I finally committed to getting back in shape. Hit the gym, ate clean, did everything right. But after two days, I felt drained. My body just couldn't keep up. That's when I found Stem Regen. It supports the release of my own stem cells to repair, recover, and actually rebuild from the inside out. Now I'm not just working out, I'm bouncing back. I feel stronger, more energized, and more like myself every single day. Stem Regen didn't just change my routine, it changed my recovery. Empower your body to recover from within. Whether you are focused on recovery, longevity, or just overall wellness, Stem Regen helps your body feel the best it can, release the best version of you. Try Stem Regen today at STEMREGEN CO. Use code POD25 for 25% off your first order. Again, that's STEMREGEN code POD25.
- [02:01]
Charlie Sykes
Welcome back to this episode of to the Contrary podcast. I'm Charlie Sykes, and I am joined today by the hardest working man on Substack, Chris Cilliza. Chris, how you doing?
- [02:10]
Brandon
I'm good. I'm gonna put that on. Do people still do business cards anymore? I was gonna say I'm gonna put that on my business card, but I haven't seen a business card in about 25 years.
- [02:18]
Charlie Sykes
So, you know, I've never had a business card. And yet every time you go to a conference or something, people are asking, do you have a card? And I go, no, I don't have a card.
- [02:25]
Brandon
I say the same thing. I'm like, you can text me.
- [02:28]
Charlie Sykes
Yeah, no, it's. It's not that hard. Okay, so there's so much I want to talk to you about. I want to talk to you about Elon Musk flip flopping on the third party which is interesting. Why you think the Epstein file story is not going away. I want to bounce off some, some thoughts about Gavin Newsom and whether you think that he is a bright, shiny object or the real thing. But I actually want to start with something you wrote the other day.
- [02:54]
Brandon
Okay.
- [02:55]
Charlie Sykes
About your rubber band theory of democracy. And I brought along a prop, just.
- [02:59]
Brandon
So you know, I love it in the finest tradition of TV talkers everywhere. A prop.
- [03:06]
Charlie Sykes
Right. Well, now, you see, I'm, this is one of those cases where I'm not sure that we agree, but I hope you are right. Okay. So could you lay out your theory about how democracy is like a rubber band and then I will give you the counter narrative.
- [03:22]
Brandon
Yes.
- [03:23]
Charlie Sykes
Which I think is wrong.
- [03:24]
Brandon
No, no, no. And I always say people like, look, I don't, I don't know that this is right. This is my, this is my working theory. So one of the questions I get the most from people who subscribe and from people who don't subscribe but, you know, have thoughts is why, why are you so naive about Donald Trump destroying democracy? The evidence is all around you. And I've, I've kind of responded, you know, in comment sections and like one offs, but I've never really liked, put together like a, my, all of my thoughts in one place. And I wanted to do that so that when people ask in the future, I can say, look, I've actually written about this. Here's, here it is. So the rubber band thing. So if you think of American democracy as a rubber band. Yes, thank you. Every president has stretched it in different ways, mostly, I would say in the expansion of executive power. You know, they, they all stretch it in different ways now. Most of them stretch it moderately and not for that long, even if it's four or eight years, you know, they stretch. I mean, look, I, I, I am old enough to remember how George W. Bush was in liberal's mind, you know, a dictator. And you know what I mean? Like, he did stretch it in certain ways. Right. I remember the firing of the, of the U.S. attorneys. I mean, it was like a gigantic thing.
- [04:48]
Charlie Sykes
And that was stretching it in retrospect.
- [04:51]
Brandon
I know, exactly. I still remember you. Still, I still remember this. The, the Cindy Sheehan camping out at the Crawford ranch to protest Trump and how she became, in that summer, like this giant figure guy. Now it's like good old George W. Bush.
- [05:06]
Charlie Sykes
Yeah, I know.
- [05:07]
Brandon
He's just painting at his home in Dallas. Okay. So every president stretches it in some ways. What we have seen broadly across decades and even Centuries. Is that the rubber band? Mostly because it's rubber, it mostly returns to its original shape. It's hard to. Yes, it is resilient, like democracy. Okay, I feel like, I feel like Shrek explaining how ogres are like onions in those movies. Okay, so there is, there, there is no question, I think, among any thinking person that Donald Trump, both in his first term and in the first six and a half, seven months of his second term, is stretching the rubber band more aggressively and in directions that we have never seen it stretched before. So there are three basic conclusions if you agree to that central premise. One, the rubber band is resilient and it will return to its normal form afterward. Doesn't matter. Two, the rubber band is go, which is democracy, just to remind people, is going to snap. And if and when it snaps into. Everybody knows this. If you break a rubber band, you can't just put it back. You can glue it, but you can't put it back together. It is fundamentally broken. Or three, he will stretch the rubber band so hard in so long that the rubber band will not break, but the rubber band will not return to its original form. It will be misshapen in ways that we may not be totally able to predict, but we can predict its misshapen ness. And we kind of have to figure out, okay, what does it look like? Is it an egg? Does it look like a rectangle? Whatever. It doesn't look like a circle anymore. Basically. I am a believer in option three. I don't think it's going to return to its original form. I think that's very unlikely given what he's done and given what we know about politicians. I don't think the next president is going to give back the executive power Donald Trump has asserted. I don't think, and I think this is where we disagree. I don't think he is likely to break the rubber band, not because he is opposed to breaking the rubber band or even considers breaking the rubber band, but because there's enough strength in our institutions, which I admit have not decorated themselves in glory, but there's enough strength in our institutions, and his term is not long enough that he can break it. And so therefore, I'm going with three. It will be misshapen, it will not return to its normal form, normal quotes, but it will not break. That's the, that's the shortish version of what I wrote. If people want the whole thing, I, I, I recommend you read it. It's not super long, but tell me why I'm wrong.
- [07:59]
Charlie Sykes
Here's my concern. Well, and I listen, I hope, I'm hoping and I kind of expect that you, you are right. However, I'm most concerned about option number four, which is that Donald Trump will stretch it. But, oh, now people who are not watching on YouTube this metaphor, the scissors, is of course, don Donald Trump. And then it's like the, the rubber band is gone. And in part because, okay, so the institutions have been resilient. And I do wonder whether, in fact we have lacked imagination or been naive about the resilience of our institutions, because there's a lot of evidence that they are not that resilient, that they, that all of the guardrails that we counted on have, have fallen. And they've fallen because they were, they were weak and they were hollow. I mean, you know, part of this is Donald Trump aggressively, you know, asserting the powers of the imperial presidency. But the flip side of this is finding out hollow many of those norms, institutions and guardrails are.
- [09:03]
Brandon
I totally agree.
- [09:04]
Charlie Sykes
We're using the term democracy, and I think, let's just stipulate that that's just kind of shorthand for a lot of other things, including, you know, the rule of law, the Constitution, basic norms about truth and equality before the law, all of those things that we're sort of putting in this. Because the reality is that democracy can be quite illiberal. I mean, democracy itself, I think we use the term, but it feels as if our political culture has been changed almost beyond recognition. And in terms of the information flow, what is acceptable, what is not acceptable, and the aggressiveness of our politics. My fear is that everything keeps escalating and escalating and escalating and that the argument that we must destroy the village to save the village will become dominant in America.
- [10:00]
Brandon
Totally. We have to burn Gotham down to return Gotham to its roots. Totally.
- [10:05]
Charlie Sykes
Exactly. I, we don't know.
- [10:09]
Brandon
No, we don't. And the one thing that, and this is why I, I think although we don't agree on everything, we find common purpose, at least on my end towards you is the one thing that I do struggle with is I do think there that is grown up around telling you we absolutely know how this all ends. And it's bad and it's fascism and it's like, I'm not, I just, how would someone know that? Like, I, I, I, I, I, I wonder. History.
- [10:50]
Charlie Sykes
The directional arrow of events.
- [10:52]
Brandon
The directional arrow, the parallels, the echoes. True, true. I just, I guess I, I think you are 100% one. What I was thinking about when you were talking is one of the things I think is hilarious to me. Let's assume that Donald Trump is not on the ballot in 2028. Let's just, I mean, I know we can have a whole episode on that, but let's assume he's not. I always think it's hilarious when people say to me, like, and I know Trump talks him up, but when people are like, oh, you know, Marco Rubio or Josh Hawley, I'm like, none of those people are going to be the nominee unless that politics is going to, that is, people who say that believe that the rubber band is going to revert back to its original form. I don't. I think that Tucker Carlson has a better chance of being the Republican nominee than Marco Rubio does. I mean, like, no, no, I think.
- [11:44]
Charlie Sykes
It'S, I think it's. So I assume that, yeah, the rubber band doesn't return. We're not going to have a Republican convention at which Mitt Romney and Paul Ryan are welcomed back with open arms. This is not going to happen.
- [11:55]
Brandon
People are like, what about Nikki Haley? I'm like, what, what, what? That you' last decade would make you think that, Nikki? That in 2028, Republican voters, after electing Donald Trump twice, are going to say, yeah, that's definitely what we want. Like, I see. So I agree with you on that. Like, I do think we are, we are through the looking glass there. Another thing I would say about the whole, the, the, the rubber band thing is I don't think we're, I don't think that option one. I think that's the least likely of those options that we go back to some semblance of like, normal, where like Mitch McConnell, Paul Ryan and Mitt Romney are the face of the Republican Party or their, you know, their modern day equivalent happens. That's. So, I think it's. I would say option three, stretched out but not broken. Then option two, then option one. Now your option four. You've really thrown me for a loop. My mind, the American mind cannot.
- [12:52]
Charlie Sykes
People who are just listening, I had the scissors, I cut it. I just so cut it.
- [12:58]
Brandon
I don't know, Charlie. I vacillate between people who say, your naivete is massive. And I don't think Donald Trump is good for democracy. I think he's demonstrably bad for democracy. I think he is fundamentally amoral. And I think that's a giant problem in any leader. I guess I still put enough faith in independent media in, you know, in the. Well, I was going to say Congress, although they have done Nothing. The Supreme Court. Yeah, I don't think the Supreme Court. Our friend Steve Vladic, who's at Georgetown now, who was at UT Austin, he writes a great substack that lots and lots of people follow. He has said, like, the idea that the Supreme Court has caved and is proven, that it's at Trump's beck and call is overstated. He is a. Now, he is not saying that the Supreme Court.
- [13:50]
Charlie Sykes
I agree with this, by the way.
- [13:52]
Brandon
Okay. Like, I just think this idea that, like, well, they'll just do whatever he says. Like, I don't see. I'm not saying they haven't done things that he wants, but I also don't think there's proof that, like Amy Coney Barrett in particular in John Roberts are just going to do whatever if Donald Trump says, well, I'm going to run again in 2028, that they'll be like, okay, Constitution.
- [14:11]
Charlie Sykes
Well, that'll be a tax. I mean, that'll, that'll be a red line, won't it? I mean, if he, if, if he wants to run these labs, push to it. So Jack Goldsmith, who teaches at Harvard, is former head of the Office of Legal Counsel, was at a forum over the weekend and he made the same point. He said, we don't know what the Supreme Court is gonna do yet. A lot of these things are overstated. So I don't wanna go too deep into the rabbit hole of history and philosophy here, but I will say I understand what you're talking about. The industry of people running around with their hair on fire. On the other hand, I do think that it is legitimate to make the warnings because quite frankly, Donald Trump almost on a daily basis does something that if you or I would've predicted it last August, we would have been accused of absolutely out of control Trump derangement syndrome. And there are models of authoritarianism, there are authoritarian playbooks, and some of the things come right out of it. And, you know, I have to say that I spent a lot of time, I don't know about you, but I spent a lot of time reading history these days. And one of the reasons I was thinking what it is about reading history, and I think it's partially because that I'm searching for eras and people who were more fucked up than we are and yet somehow came out of it.
- [15:20]
Brandon
Find it reassuring.
- [15:22]
Charlie Sykes
Yeah, find it reassuring. But also, I think to your question about predicting, I mean, I think it's legitimate to say this is authoritarian, this is fascist, like, but to predict what's going to happen, nobody actually knows. So the question what will happen? Is the wrong question. The right question is, what will we do? What is our role now? I cannot control the future. I cannot predict the future.
- [15:46]
Brandon
That's right.
- [15:46]
Charlie Sykes
All I can do is say, how do I react to these things? Do I just shrug my shoulders, roll my eyes, or do I say, no, this is, this is a grave threat to American, you know, the constitutional republic that, you know, that, that we have taken for granted for so, for so long. So, again, we.
- [16:05]
Brandon
I think that's very fair, you know.
- [16:08]
Charlie Sykes
And I hope that people do understand that at some point. I also think that it's important, and I know that you struggle with this as well. One of the things that I worry about is the cycle of people retreating into bubbles that are becoming more and more, you know, becoming these, these hermetically sealed alternative reality silos. And I know that there are listeners of this who are gonna hate it when I say that both sides are doing this and that one of the most dangerous things right now, if you actually believe that democracy at risk, is to retreat into one of these hermetically sealed silos, because then you will tell yourself stories or you will cut yourself off from the kind of critique that you need if you're ever going to counter it. And so I do worry that, you know, on, on, on the left, I wrote my, my, my substack newsletter to the contrary about, you know, the Democrats and their bright shiny objects going off and saying, oh, look at this person, you know, Well, I read it. Many of those bright and shiny objects would not be electable in any swing district in America. They are not the majority makers.
- [17:16]
Brandon
And I love the point that you made. I say this. Any, any smart Democratic strategist who I've talked to in the last six months all say the same thing. The most important thing, if, if you, if you believe democracy is in peril, if you believe Donald Trump has, and it seems to me he does have authoritarian leanings.
- [17:36]
Charlie Sykes
Right?
- [17:37]
Brandon
The most important thing is, is not anything other than you have to win back control of either the House or Senate in 2026. That there's just no. And you make that point high up in that, like, yes, you can't. You. And the way that you win elections is not. But I always say you have. It's real politic. You have to deal not with what you think people should care about, but what people do care about. Right? Like, yes, this was the mistake I always thought Biden was making, and I thought he would have. I think you and I have talked about this, but I always thought he was going to lose anyway before the debate because Joe Biden believed, and I think there's plenty of evidence to back this up, January 6th being a primary one, that Donald Trump's interest in that Donald Trump is not fundamentally interested in sort of the project of American democracy. Donald Trump is interested in what's good for Donald Trump, and that therefore democracy was on the ballot. And that was the most important thing. Now, again, I think that that's really important, and I don't think we should memory hold January 6th. The problem is, you know, who didn't really care? Independent and swing voters. So it's like, do you want to win and be able to, in this case, put some hurdles in Donald Trump's way, do some level of oversight that you could do if you control the House, or do you want to win the, quote, unquote, moral argument and not have any control? And I think a lot of times there are too many Democrats who want to feel good that they are doing the, quote, unquote, right thing or on the right side of history, but don't have any control. And politics is about power. If you're in the minority, as Democrats are across Washington, in governorships across the country, in state legislatures across the country, we're seeing this with re redistricting, you don't get to make the rules. So until you have some power, that, to me is the fundamental thing. And I love that you, you put that, you forefronted that. Because I think a lot of people lose that.
- [19:40]
Charlie Sykes
Right, Right. Because it's supposed to blow back. Well, and also part of it is, I mean, I understand the attraction of people like AOC and Jasmine Crockett, but the Democrats do have a pretty good bench of smart Democrats who win elections, who win elections. Absolutely. Deep red states. So I guess the question would be, why is Andy Bashir, who is in Kentucky and is the governor and has a 65% approval rating, why is Abigail Spanberger, who's about to become the governor of Virginia, why is Alyssa Slotkin, who won Michigan when Trump was winning? Why are these not the rock stars? Why are we not seeing them on the COVID of Time magazine? And why are the Atlantic not running articles saying a Democrat for the era of Trump? These are the people who actually can make majorities, who will actually win elections. And yet the bright, shiny object is somebody who is in a gerrymandered 85%.
- [20:34]
Brandon
Democratic district, could never win on TikTok.
- [20:37]
Charlie Sykes
Who could not win in any swing district in America. And, you know, cancel Me, if you don't like that. But you do have, you know.
- [20:46]
Brandon
Well, if you think that aoc, if you think that Zoran Mamdani's messaging would work in Kentucky, I mean, it just wouldn't. We could argue whether, whether it should be or those people are voting against their economic interest. We could have a whole, like, philosophy, political philosophy class on it, but it wouldn't. I have said that if Democrats are interested in winning, that they should do everything that they can. You can't make him the nominee, but do everything they can to listen to Andy Beshear as much as possible. And they're, you know, they're not really. And, and I do think it's like, you know, why I think I, I thought about this, Charlie. I wonder what you think about this. It's like, I actually think I have. I wrote this down. I don't know if you can see this. I wrote, I've got, I write my ideas down on, on like note cards. And so I have the same thing. Gavin Newsom, good 2025. Now, I swear to you, I wrote this before the last 48 hours where everyone is saying, Gavin Newsom's having such a great 2025. And I, of course, haven't written it yet. So there's that.
- [21:50]
Charlie Sykes
All right. Well, yeah, go on.
- [21:53]
Brandon
No, I was going to say, like, I get, I think it's a head versus heart thing. I get why I laugh at Gavin Newsom's trolling of Trump on Twitter. It's funny. I mean, I laugh at Donald Trump's tweets where he's like, your favorite president. Me. Thank you for your attention to this matter. Like, it's, it's funny. It's good because it makes you think, like, oh, my gosh, like, Trump. Just so ridiculous. I get all of that stuff. And yet, like, it is hard for me to believe that another San Francisco Democrat. And I think Gavin Newsom is super talented, actually. And I think he has done a lot of good things this, this year in terms of 2028. But it's hard for me to believe that that is the solution to what ails Democrats.
- [22:42]
Charlie Sykes
Okay, so Brand, you. You've gone where I wanted to go as a segue because, you know, when I'm talking about bright, shiny objects, I punted on this. I'm actually way behind the curve because I said so. The big question is, is Gavin Newsom just a bright, shiny object, you know, scratching the Democrats aid, or is he the real thing? Because right now, he is about the, I mean, the only Guy who is in, at a, at the level, I won't say at the level of Trump because of course, that, that's, that's hard impossible to, to, you know, be giving the Democrats what they want. This is the guy who's fighting, he's funny, he's entertaining. And I'll tell you, I was asked about this on a Canadian SiriusXM radio show this morning. And I also headed. And I said, you know, get back to me after November if, you know, if he's, he has this referendum on the ballot to, you know, re gerrymander California if he loses that referendum.
- [23:36]
Brandon
Well, I think it's Puff the Gigantic bet he's making gigantic. I, I am sort of intrigued that he did. I, I actually, from just a purely political standpoint, I actually admire the balls to try it.
- [23:56]
Charlie Sykes
Yeah.
- [23:56]
Brandon
Because there is at least the possibility he loses and if he loses the shine. No, it doesn't mean he can't run for president. But my gosh, the shine would be off that star.
- [24:06]
Charlie Sykes
Right. Big time.
- [24:07]
Brandon
So he has to, at some level have calculated that, that, like, okay, if we win, I look like the guy who countered Trump and it's good for Democrats and I get momentum, but if I lose, so I kind of admire because I think so many politicians, Kamala Harris clearly fell into this. This category too.
- [24:27]
Charlie Sykes
Safe.
- [24:28]
Brandon
They're safe. There' risk averse. You gotta take some swings. My God, Donald Trump took a thousand swings that I would have said are inadvisable. And I think if you're the Democratic Party, you have to take a few swings. Like, you gotta try some stuff other people aren't trying. The Newsome thing is odd because I feel like there's been two stages of Gavin Newsom 2028 already this year.
- [24:54]
Charlie Sykes
Right.
- [24:54]
Brandon
Stage one, you know, I, we shouldn't have trans girls in, in, in girl sports. Also. Stage one, hey, look at me. I started a podcast where I'm interviewing Charlie Kirk and Steve Bannon. Well, you don't hear a lot about that podcast anymore, do you? Stage 2 Newsome LA ICE protests. Donald Trump is, you know, martial law, calling up the National Guard. He's the foil and the guy willing to fight Donald Trump. The Twitter stuff, you know, it's like all of a sudden, the Gavin Newsom moving to the middle is kind out the window. And the Gavin Newsom I will fight like hell and stick it to Trump in ways that you will like is here. So we've already had like two. I'm like, well, what iteration of Gavin Newsom is it? Because it's only, it's August and we've already had two. He's clearly, he's clearly trying things out for 2028. And, and he's have. I think this has been the more successful version.
- [25:53]
Charlie Sykes
This, this more recent, rather dramatically more successful.
- [25:56]
Brandon
But is.
- [25:56]
Charlie Sykes
Yeah. No.
- [25:57]
Brandon
Is it more successful in winning him a nomination, though, Charlie, or in winning the presidency?
- [26:04]
Charlie Sykes
Winning a nomination is one thing, two different things. Yes, exactly, exactly. And, and, and actually I was talking to somebody, pretty smart guy the other day who, because I was, I was saying, you know, that I, you know, how much success Newsom was having, getting attention and, you know, being able to fight back. He's the first Democrat that's kind of figured out that formula. And he said, Devin Newsom would be a terrible. This is what he said. Gavin Newsom would be a terrible candidate for some of the reasons that you sort of hinted at. You know, another, you know, California Democrat, you know, somebody from, you know, that background. This is exactly what Republicans want to run against. So, again, I am, I am agnostic on this. I am, I've said before, I'm a Gavin Newsom skeptic, but we'll have to see.
- [26:45]
Brandon
Okay, so I just, Can I say one quick other thing about Newsom is on the San Francisco, California point. I will admit that during the 2024 campaign, I kind of rolled my eyes when Trump would. I shouldn't have because he's been right a lot with this stuff. But I would roll my eyes when at these rallies, he'd be like, comrade Kamala. I'd be like, this is so stupid. Like, she's clearly not a communist. I mean, you know, like, you could, you can think that she's like, too liberal or whatever. Like, and yet I really do think I, I was, I've read a bunch of after action reports and focus groups and the fact that she was from California really and from San Francisco, had, you know, political base in San Francisco, really did for a lot of people in the country. That was like a sellable thing that she was a con. I mean, she's from California. She must be a Communist. And so it's like, I don't think that about people from California, but I'm also not the person who decides elections. Right. And so I do think, like, I think Newsom has to figure out a way Our, our kind of built in biases are very hard to disrupt. And I think there is a bias in the middle of the country about California.
- [28:00]
Charlie Sykes
Well, let's be honest about it, since we're Going there. I mean, there's a built in bias. She was a black woman from California, right?
- [28:07]
Brandon
Now he's a white guy.
- [28:09]
Charlie Sykes
Right. But I mean, there are people, the.
- [28:12]
Brandon
Guy who was marrying gay people before anybody, I mean, he, you know, he was literally doing the gay marriage ceremonies. If you don't think that will come up, I know that people will say, oh, no one cares about that. There are people who still don't want that and you know, who are culturally conservative. And I just, I just wonder, I just wonder with that resume whether it works.
- [28:35]
Charlie Sykes
Yeah, And I, I think it's a legitimate question. I, you know, there are people who want to make it either or, you know, that Kamala Harris went down because she was a woman. Kamala Harris went down because she was a black woman. Or because all of these are factors. And part of it, it codes. How does it code? It reads. All of that they were able to project often with, let's just say with bad faith. So speaking of things that we haven't talked about and speaking of like people, I actually remember when you mentioned Comrade Kamala, I remember this one Twitter meme that Elon Musk was putting out, actually showing her dressed up as Stalin, which I thought was absurd, but going in. So Elon Musk, we haven't heard from Elon Musk lately. But you had an interesting piece today about his flip flop. I had actually missed that story. Story that Elon Musk is now basically saying, never mind on the third party.
- [29:28]
Brandon
That I will say, and I know people on the left hate Rupert Murdoch and he's too involved and blah, blah. I will say, I don't pay for a huge number of legacy media subscriptions. I pay for a Wall Street Journal subscription because I think they, they have done a lot of really good work. You know, they Trump and Epstein on Biden and questions about him. I just, so anyway, yes. There's a piece in the Wall Street Journal today that basically says Eli Elon Musk, a month after too much ado and hype, announcing that he was starting the America party and how the two parties were broken and, and, and well, now he's focused on his business and he doesn't want to get crosswise with J.D. vance and he actually might give money to J.D. vance. I mean, it's just so it's both utterly predictable and appalling at the same time. Like, of course, because you know what? Elon Musk is a rich guy who wants to get richer and he's not going. The Democratic Party is lost to him now. Because of what he did in 2024. And then with Doe. The Republican Party. Yeah, I know he fought with Trump, but, like, there's still a potential home for him there. He's not going to nix the one avenue. He will have to have a direct line to the White House. There's no way. Why the hell would he do it? Because the America Party is not electing the president in 2028, no matter how much money he puts into it. So it's like, it's so predictable. The idea that we fell for a third. We broadly fell for a third party. It really is Charlie Brown, Lucy and the football all over again. Every time somebody tells me, like, hey, we're forming this group, but this time it's going to really work. It's a third party. Have you seen the number of people Independent is the fastest growing. Yeah, I know all those things. And it's not going to work. Elon just says stuff. He and Trump have that in common. They pop off on social media and then they don't back it up. This is that.
- [31:20]
Charlie Sykes
All right. However, so since we talked about Elon Musk popping off on social media, the one thing that he did do successfully, I mean, Doge was kind of a fraud. This was kind of a, you know, clusterfuck. But the one thing that he. The one fuse that he lit was the Epstein. Epstein files, wasn't it?
- [31:37]
Brandon
I know he did.
- [31:38]
Charlie Sykes
Where he. That now deleted.
- [31:40]
Brandon
Now deleted Twitter.
- [31:41]
Charlie Sykes
Yes, but that was his bomb. Now dropped the big bomb that Trump is in the Epstein files. And everything that's happened since then involving that seems to have flowed from all of that. So you want to talk about one pivotal moment. Now, you and I have had this. We've been talking for about 30 minutes now. We have not mentioned the Epstein files. The Epstein files, not on the news. We have a lot of Ukraine stories. We have a lot of D.C. occupation stories. We may go to war with Venezuela by the time this. This podcast airs, who knows?
- [32:11]
Brandon
We need to retake the Panama Canal. Don't forget that, Charlie.
- [32:14]
Charlie Sykes
Well, there's Greenland. Greenland is still out there, right?
- [32:17]
Brandon
They are. Greenland is baiting us constantly. They're asking for it in a lot of ways.
- [32:22]
Charlie Sykes
Well, you could. You could certainly imagine Donald Trump being up there. So, okay, so they bought Alaska, and everybody thinks that this was a good idea. We bought Alaska from Russia. Why can't I be the guy that buys Greenland? But let's talk about the Epstein files. Because it is still August. Nothing's actually happening. You know, is that story going Away. You've argued it is not.
- [32:45]
Brandon
Tell me about that. So, yeah, I don't think so. And, and the reason why is because there's still things that I think are almost certain to happen in the future that will provide it more fuel. I mean, like, look, you always think of this just like a, a fire. Like that's how these things work. You know, without, without tinder and oxygen, it goes away eventually. The problem for Trump is. So when I say there are things out there that I think will provide an oxygen, number one, Jim Comer, the chair of the House Oversight Committee, against his will because in a subcommittee vote, some renegade Republicans joined with Democrats that forced Colmer to subpoena these files from the Department of Justice. DOJ is now saying that they will begin transferring at least some of the Epstein files to the House Oversight Committee starting Friday. Okay, so we don't know what that is. One, we don't know what it is, but that is one big piece of oxygen. What is it? If they're giving it to the House Oversight Committee, why aren't they releasing it publicly? Right. That whole thing. And I just don't think that wraps up neatly. The other thing. Well, two other things. One other is that I do think this discharge petition, basically this end run to get a vote on the floor on releasing the Epstein files by Tom Massey, Republic of Kentucky and Ro Khanna, Democrat of California, is going to succeed. I think it is going to get 218 votes. I don't think, I don't think Tom Massie gives a shit about sort of, you know, the House leadership frowning on this, you know what I mean? I think he's already done enough to get himself crossways with this. So I think there will be a vote. Now, just because Congress votes and says they should release the Epstein files doesn't mean they're going to release the Epstein's files. But my point is it's like it will fuel the story and then the last thing. And I think this kind of got overlooked. It happened right as they were trying to get out of town. But the. What? This is not the only poll that showed this, but the Washington Post released a poll that showed that 67 of people strongly support the release of the episode and another 19 somewhat supported. So now you have, it's 75, 80% of people. And if you look at it, it's the weirdest thing that you never see anymore. Breakdown by party, Republican, Democrat, Independent, 80% across all of those support the release of the Epstein files. It's hard when 80% of the public wants something. I don't think they're ever gonna release all the Epstein files, but you gotta. They gotta give them something. Is it Pam Bondi resigning? Is it Cash Patel resigning? Is it Pam Bondi and Cash Patel doing a dual press conference where they try to answer all the questions? Is it them releasing some stuff. Is it a Ghislaine Maxwell pardon where she says Donald Trump was involved? My point is there are ways that this could end, not horribly for Donald Trump, but I just don't think it's going to end without these oxygen feeders giving that fire more oxygen. And that's why I think it sticks around. I don't think we come back from the congressional recess and it disappears. Do you.
- [35:49]
Charlie Sykes
I agree. Do you have a different you completely. No, I do not have it. I do not have a different take. And also because of the numbers you just cited, this, this is, this is a different kind of issue. I mean, I'm old enough to remember trying explain the Whitewater scandal to people in the middle of the 19th. Complicated.
- [36:04]
Brandon
Oh, it's a real estate transaction.
- [36:07]
Charlie Sykes
No, no. Okay, so, so fast forward to this, people. Get this. People understand this. There are still, there are still victims. There are still survivors. They are speaking out. There are platforms. You cannot, you can't just simply say it's a hoax. When you have these criminal cases, when you have hundreds if not thousands of victims here, the Ghislaine Maxwell, you know, possibility of a pardon, I think was an indication of. It feels almost a little bit like flop sweat on his part.
- [36:37]
Brandon
You know, I mean, I think politically it's. Politically, it's idiotic. I mean, which doesn't mean he can't do it. I mean, tariffs are idiotic politically, and he continues to push on that front. But, like, it doesn't mean he won't do it. But it's beyond stupid. I mean, it couldn't make you look more guilty. I don't know if he's guilty of anything or not, but I mean, doing that, that suggests to me that, like, okay, we told her what we want her to say, she's agreed to it, we're going to partner and she's going to come out and say, Donald Trump never did anything. Donald Trump is a saint.
- [37:08]
Charlie Sykes
Ugly, ugly, ugly. Okay, so here's something else that did not happen, though. My understanding was that the Republican plan was to spend the summer going back home and selling all the great things in the big beautiful bill, telling people all the goodies. I cannot remember the last time anybody even mentioned it so you know, the distractions to the distractions to the distractions basically completely muted any selling of the big beautiful bill which remains underwater.
- [37:42]
Brandon
This may be a semi controversial take because I know the Epstein thing drives base energy on the Democratic side and splits the base on the Republican side. So I understand why Democrats think it's a good issue and I'm not saying it's a bad issue. In my mind, if I were Democrats and we come back, you know, in, in after Labor Day, man, I would spend every day beating the shit out of the big beautiful bill and the Medicaid stuff that's in there and the tax stuff that's in there. Because I think while people look, I think people are like, like Epstein is a shitbag. He clearly hung out with at a minimum. So a lot of high profile people, including Bill Clinton and Donald Trump, they were clearly friendly. Now that doesn't implicate them. But while I think people all agree on that and they want to know more about it, to me I still return to the Carville. It's the economy, stupid thing. Like this bill, to your point is not popular. It is vast. There is stuff in there that members of Congress who, I mean they've been no idea as much don't know what was in there. I think you pick that thing apart if you're a Democrat and you say, look, this isn't about Donald Trump. I don't care if you like Donald Trump, you hate him. I don't care if you think Donald Trump is Hitler, if you think he's, you know, the greatest president since Abe Lincoln, this is his signature legislation that a Republican controlled House and Senate rubber stamped effectively. Yeah, let's look at what's in it and you peel out the things that are in it. And again to your point, and I think this is critically important because every political fight, it matters the ground on which you're fighting and where you start from the bill is unpopular. It's really hard to make something that is gigantic and unpopular with the public popular. Ask Barack Obama in the 2010 election about Obamacare. Like I would focus much more of my time and money ad wise and rhetoric wise on what's wrong with the one big beautiful bill as opposed to Epstein. To me, Epstein is cherry on top stuff. Not the Sunday that you build a campaign on.
- [39:59]
Charlie Sykes
Well, I agree with that completely. But also I think Epstein will have a life of its own. So in terms of like, what do you need to promote? Epstein's going to be circling out there. You don't need to do. Now the other thing is, and I, and I really am always skeptical when I hear other people do this anecdotal thing. You know, it's the. Because it's so limited. But it is interesting how often in private conversations I have heard people talk about, have you noticed the price of groceries lately? Have you seen what's been happening? This was going back to our discussion of bubbles and hermetically sealed. One of the biggest mistakes that Democrats and some never Trumpers made was when they tried to pretend that inflation was not a real issue, that they were ignoring the lived experience because he's destroying democracy. Yeah, whatever. But it is interesting to me that the inflation issue is percolating out there. There's indication that it is getting worse. We have not had the full impact of the tariffs yet. And you want to talk about one of the great ironies of population.
- [40:56]
Brandon
Yeah, go ahead. He ran expressly on this. If you look, I always remind people this. Go and look at the 2024 exit poll. In the 2024 exit poll, voters who rank the economy as the most important issue, which is about a third of all voters, they give them four options. Typically, Donald Trump won. Those voters who said the state of the economy was the most important thing in deciding their vote, 81% to 18% over Kamala Harris.
- [41:26]
Charlie Sykes
Really?
- [41:27]
Brandon
That's. Yes. And that's stunning.
- [41:29]
Charlie Sykes
That is.
- [41:30]
Brandon
I went and checked it. 81:18. He wins the election because of that. His promise was Biden doesn't know what the hell he's doing. Kamala Harrison, what the hell they're doing. I'm a business guy. I fixed and made the greatest economy ever once. I'll do it again. Okay, well, if he doesn't do that by 2026, it seems to me a slam dunk to just be like, what the guy said. You voted for him for this reason. And at best, he's fought it to basically a draw. At best. And let's see what 22.6holds. Because I'm with you. I mean, I just think the terrorists are just colossally stupid politically. Like.
- [42:12]
Charlie Sykes
Right.
- [42:12]
Brandon
But I think that's the ground you fight on. And, and, and, and I think it's, you know, Democrats often, again, this goes back to the like, what. What do you think voters should care about versus meeting voters where they are and what they do care.
- [42:29]
Charlie Sykes
Yeah, No, I mean, and you're exactly right. And I'm trying to remember this thing from the. Was the Progressive Policy Institute. I think I quoted into my newsletter after their After Action report that when they asked voters, what do you think Democrats care about the most? They didn't think they cared about the economy. They did, but they were saying the number one issue for Democrats will be progressive social issues like trans rights and everything.
- [42:57]
Brandon
Trans stuff.
- [42:58]
Charlie Sykes
Yeah, exactly. So this was one of those, those key moments where Democrats have to convince people that they respect them, that they're listening to them, and that they care about the same things that they care about as opposed to what they think tank elites might be talking about. No, I agree completely. And by the way, you know, one of the things I really like about your Substack newsletter is when you break down various things that Donald Trump says, just briefly, you do, like, a forensic analysis of what Donald Trump says as opposed to just letting it flow over our heads.
- [43:39]
Brandon
I think it is remarkable because one of the things about him is he does talk more publicly than any modern president, like, much more than Biden, obviously. And we can debate about the quality of what he says and does he actually answer questions? But I'm just saying, saying from just a pure words point of view, he's constantly, like, calling into Fox News. He's doing, he's doing Mark Levin's podcast. He's, he's talking for 35 minutes in the Oval Office at something that's like, ostensibly like a gold star signing ceremony or something like. And I just think, like, a fair amount of it is repetitive. He does say a lot of the same stuff. But I also think, like, I mean, I'll give you one example, Charlie. I thought this was totally fascinating. So he calls into Fox and Friends on Tuesday morning. Totally friendly environment, right? I mean, it's like Charlie Kirk and Ainsley Earhart. I mean, these are not people who are. This is not even Brett Baer who will, like, ask him, like, actual real questions. And so he's going and he's talking. He's talking and they're asking him about how, what a. Oh, you've done such a great job, you know, settling all these wars and why do you want to end the war between Ukraine and Russia us so much. And he says, I'm paraphrasing. But he, but he basically says, like, well, I, you know, I want to get into heaven and I, I don't think I'm doing a great job there. Now, now, I, as I noted, bottom of the totem pole. Now, as I noted, anyone who knows anything about the Bible, which Donald Trump doesn't, but anyone knows anything about the Bible, knows that, you know, it's faith, not works. I mean, that's elucidated any number of times doesn't mean you can be a terrible person. But ultimately, I think faith is what gets you there. So the works, ideas, whatever, we can debate that. But the fact that he, like, out of the blue, he talks about, like, heaven and he wants to get. He keeps on about it, and they're clearly like, what the hell is going on? So it's like, yes, there's a lot of repetition in there, but. But. But there is also. That was amazing, where you're like, wait, why is this not getting more coverage? Like, I thought he was in the Ukraine, Russia thing because he wants to win the Nobel Peace Prize, which I think is part of it. But also he's now equating it to, like, the saving of his immortal soul. Like, that's interesting to me. And so I'm. Yeah, go ahead.
- [46:03]
Charlie Sykes
I have mixed feelings about this. I actually think that it's. On one level, it is. It's good that Donald Trump is thinking about his immortal soul, that he's actually thinking about himself as a person. Is he good? Is God happy with him? That's the good part. The less good part is that perhaps Donald Trump's view of God and what it takes to get into heaven is different than the rest of us, as we've seen in the past.
- [46:29]
Brandon
Totally. But my point, though, Charlie, is like, I think the Times wrote about it, but it largely kind of went into the ether, and nobody was like, wait, what? And I just think that happens a lot with him. He says stuff. Because he says so much stuff. And, yes, part of this is strategic on his part. We know that.
- [46:54]
Charlie Sykes
Right.
- [46:54]
Brandon
It's the Steve Bannon theory. But, like, because he says and does so much stuff, sometimes we. I like to think we separate the wheat from the chaff, but I don't know that we're doing the best job of separating the wheat from. I mean, we collectively, as kind of a country and as a media. Because I think sometimes he says stuff where you're like, whoa, let's put a pin in that. Like, rather than getting super exercised over the fact that for the billionth time. And he did this in the Fox and Friends interview, he says they were sending people from prisons, and he said the worst insane asylums. I don't even know what the hell that means. But we fixate on that. And yes, that is. There's no evidence that they were doing that, that any country was sending us their. Exactly. I get that we fixate on that at the. This is your shiny objects thing. Right. It's like, I get that we fixate on that. At the same time, he is saying other stuff is super interesting that we're probably missing because there's just so much of it. But might be.
- [47:54]
Charlie Sykes
That is the problem. We just get numbed. Yeah, we just get numb. But on the other hand, I agree with you. I think that if Donald Trump wants to have a national conversation begin about whether or not Donald Trump is going to heaven or hell, I am here for it. I really am.
- [48:08]
Brandon
Totally.
- [48:09]
Charlie Sykes
And I think we could have that. We could have that conversation.
- [48:12]
Brandon
It's a hell of a lot more interesting. Like for me, it's a hell of a lot more interesting than me going through his speeches, which I do several times a week, and linking to another PolitiFact thing that says absolutely false about him saying that other countries are sending us their worst criminals.
- [48:29]
Charlie Sykes
Yeah, exactly. Well, Chris, Eliza, it has been great talking with you. We'll have to do this again soon. I really appreciate all your time.
- [48:36]
Brandon
I love doing it and I'm a giant Charlie Sykes fan, I think, as you know. But I will say it publicly. I appreciate your work and I appreciate your willingness to entertain. And I think we all need to do this more. Entertain beliefs that are not totally aligned with yours and give them some level of intellectual rigor and thought. I just think you can't criticize people who do that and say we need to do it and then not do it. You know, it's exactly what you've been talking about.
- [49:07]
Charlie Sykes
Well, thank you. And thank you for giving me the opportunity to actually use a prop here on YouTube. So again, thank you.
- [49:12]
Brandon
I love that.
- [49:13]
Stem Regen Advertiser
And thank you all.
- [49:14]
Charlie Sykes
And thank you all for listening to this episode of to the Contrary podcast. You know why we do this, why we're going to continue to do this? Because now more than ever, it is critical, crucial and absolutely necessary to keep reminding ourselves that we are not the crazy ones.
- [49:42]
Brandon
Did I talk too much? Can't I just let it go?
- [49:51]
BetterHelp Announcer
Take a breath. You're not alone. Let's talk about what's going on. Counseling helps you sort through the noise with qualified professionals and online therapy makes it convenient. See if it's for you, visit betterhelp.com randompodcast for 10% off your first month of online therapy and let life feel better.
- [50:13]
Brandon
Botox cosmetic adobotulinum toxinae. FDA approved for over 20 years. So talk to your specialist to see if Botox Cosmetic is right for you.
- [50:22]
Stem Regen Advertiser
For full prescribing information, including boxed warning, visit botoxcosmetic.com or call 877-351-0300.
- [50:32]
Brandon
Remember to ask for Botox Cosmetic by name.
- [50:35]
Charlie Sykes
To see for yourself and learn more.
- [50:37]
Brandon
Visit botoxcosmetic.com that's botoxcosmetic.com now you can fly anywhere in the world and pay discount prices on your airline tickets. Book a flight today to London, Paris, Madrid or anywhere else you want to go and pay a lot less guaranteed. Call the international travel department right now at Low Cost Airlines, 8002-1551-4180-0215-5141. That's 800-215-5141.
- [51:21]
Charlie Sykes
Acast powers the world's best Podcasts Here's.
- [51:25]
Brandon
A show that we recommend.
- [51:29]
Farnoosh Torabi
With so much uncertainty in the economy, we need to rely on experts we can trust. So money, hosted by me, Farnoosh Tarabi, is a Webby Award winning podcast now in its 10th year. The new York Times calls it one of the most respected personal finance shows out there. As a financial journalist for more than 20 years and best selling author, let me tell you it is a privilege to produce this show and whether you want to save more, invest or negotiate a better salary, I've got you covered with fresh episodes three times a week. And here's something extra. I'm giving away a free money call to one lucky listener every week. A chance for you and I to talk one on one and create a personal plan for your goals. Listen and subscribe to SEW Money wherever you get your podcasts.
- [52:13]
Charlie Sykes
ACAST helps creators launch, grow and monetize their podcasts everywhere.
- [52:18]
Brandon
Acast.com.