Garry Kasparov: Putin, Poland, and the Peril of American Democracy

Summary

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Podcast Summary: "Garry Kasparov: Putin, Poland, and the Peril of American Democracy"

Podcast: To The Contrary with Charlie Sykes
Host: Charlie Sykes
Guest: Garry Kasparov
Date: September 14, 2025
Main Theme: The growing threats to democracy from Vladimir Putin’s aggression, the West’s response (or lack thereof), and the precarious state of American democracy in the Trump era.

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Episode Overview

In this urgent and wide-ranging conversation, Charlie Sykes welcomes Garry Kasparov—chess grandmaster, outspoken critic of autocracy, and co-host of The Atlantic’s podcast on Autocracy—to discuss the convergence of escalating global and domestic threats to democracy. The discussion addresses Russia’s incursion into Poland, the Western world's faltering response, the repercussions of the assassination of Charlie Kirk, and what the current moment means for the future of American democracy.

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Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. The Escalation: Russia Attacks Poland

• Kasparov draws a direct line between the assassination of US figure Charlie Kirk and Russia’s drone strike inside Poland, calling both predictable outcomes of a climate that fosters and tolerates escalating violence and authoritarian boldness.
  • “If you promote violence for a long time, things that... terrible things happen.” (03:18, Kasparov)
• He asserts that Putin’s attack was intentional, a purposeful test of NATO’s resolve.
  • “Not with 19 drones, especially a few of them flying a couple hundred miles deep into Polish territory. So it was a deliberate attack, okay.” (05:08, Kasparov)
• Kasparov frames Putin’s motives as consistent with the behavior of all autocrats needing external enemies to legitimize their rule.
  • “Putin had to look elsewhere, outside of the country, for enemies… escalation became the only way for Putin to keep this war going. And Putin is war.” (04:39, Kasparov)

2. Western Reaction and Failures

• Kasparov heavily criticizes Europe’s timidity and the West’s repeated failures to confront Putin, both militarily and politically.
  • “The new world order that China is trying to build has two cornerstones: American corruption and European impotence. What we saw now is another illustration of European impotence.” (09:26, Kasparov)
  • “Article 4 is basically nothing. Why not Article 5?” (09:21, Kasparov)
• The discussion notes that despite Europe’s resources, what is missing is “political will and the general mood of the nation.”
  • “Ukrainians proved they are willing to die for their country... But the rest of Europe... only 16% of Germans according to the latest poll were willing to fight for their country.” (10:39-11:17, Kasparov)

3. The Trump Factor: Undermining the West from Within

• Trump’s response to Russia’s aggression is framed as accommodating and transactional, with Kasparov expressing zero surprise at this behavior.
  • “Every decision made by Donald Trump has two criteria and both: personal monetization and glorification. That’s it.” (12:54, Kasparov)
• Kasparov criticizes the lack of substantive US leadership and describes Trump as sympathetic to Putin, even subordinate.
  • “Putin is now acting like a satellite of Xi, and Trump is subordinate to Putin.” (13:40, Kasparov)
• Direct critique of the Trump administration’s willingness to lift sanctions rather than punish Russian aggression.

4. Systemic Failures: A History of Appeasement and Complacency

• Kasparov provides a historical context for the West’s failures, especially after 1991, when the US “failed to come up with a new vision” after the Cold War.
  • “When Clinton left the office, Al Qaeda was ready to strike and Vladimir Putin was in the office. That tells you that the '90s… were not good because the momentum to rebuild the world… was missed.” (16:26, Kasparov)
• He attributes the corrosion of Western institutions to engagement with corrupt regimes.
  • “Doing business with Putin… never made roots in Russia. But the corruption became widespread everywhere, from Berlin to Washington.” (19:35, Kasparov)

5. The “Putinization” of America: Autocracy Comes Home

• Sykes and Kasparov link the exploitation of Charlie Kirk’s assassination to the classical authoritarian playbook: seizing crisis as pretext for consolidating power and suppressing dissent.
  • “There’s always that pretext, that emergency… this is what I’m going to do. How dangerous is that moment for us now?” (23:22, Sykes)
  • “This moment was dangerous even before this fateful shot in Utah… I have deep, grave… concerns about the outcome of 2026 elections. Not because I expect the country would rally Donald Trump. It’s the opposite... If, and I emphasize, we have free and fair elections. It will be free, but I don’t think it will be fair.” (22:04, Kasparov)

6. Trump’s Authoritarian Playbook and Democratic Fragility

• Kasparov describes Trump as openly aspiring to “one-party rule,” enabled by a GOP now fully controlled by the MAGA base.
  • “Donald Trump never delivered presidential speeches… he was a party president, actually, not a party president, a MAGA president… In his mind, he is already running one-party dictatorship.” (25:12, Kasparov)
• Both discuss the erosion of legal norms, Congressional opposition, and the courts:
  • “I wouldn’t bet my bottom dollar on Supreme Court being the last line of defense for American Constitution.” (30:30, Kasparov)
  • “You don’t win the war against rising authoritarianism by not taking risk, you cannot play safe.” (33:18, Kasparov)
  • “Democracy is always one generation away from extinction.” (44:06, Kasparov quoting Reagan)

7. What Should the Opposition Do?

• Kasparov urges the Democratic opposition to “fight fire with fire,” arguing that only by taking real risks—like shutting down the government—can they hope to counter Trump’s overreach.
  • “Create problems. They, strategically, always benefit the weaker side.” (34:53, Kasparov)
  • “Pretending that you can win the game that is not played by the rules by following the rules… that’s wishful thinking.” (36:52, Kasparov)
• Sykes notes the disconnect between establishment Democrats' playbook and the current existential moment.
  • “There is no way through this without taking risks… right, without being aggressive.” (35:42, Sykes)

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Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• On Putin’s strategy:
  “Dictators do not stop until they’re stopped. They never ask why, but why not?” (03:18, Kasparov)

• On the Western response:
  “The new world order that China is trying to build has two cornerstones: American corruption and European impotence.” (09:26, Kasparov)

• On Trump’s motivations:
  “Every decision made by Donald Trump has two criteria and both: personal monetization and glorification.” (12:54, Kasparov)

• On the state of American democracy:
  “I have deep, grave… concerns about the outcome of 2026 elections. Not because I expect… the country would rally Donald Trump. It’s the opposite… If, and I emphasize, we have free and fair elections. It will be free, but I don’t think it will be fair.” (22:04, Kasparov)

• On the hollowness of democratic guardrails:
  “Many of the elements of American democracy… have not been codified, but rather been adopted as norms… I predicted Donald Trump would go after these norms, challenging them, because at the end of the day. So what is this? It's a piece of paper. It's the Constitution.” (37:57, Kasparov)

• On the fragility of democracy:
  “Democracy is always one generation away from extinction.” (44:06, Kasparov quoting Reagan)

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Chronological Breakdown of Important Segments

• Opening & Setting the Stage:
  [01:29] Host introduction, Kasparov returns
  [02:01] “We live in terrible times” – framing contemporary threats

• Russian Attack on Poland:
  [03:18] Kasparov: connection between the attack and domestic assassinations
  [05:08] Deliberateness of Poland attack

• Testing NATO and Western Resolve:
  [06:26] Putin’s broader goals—war with NATO/liberal order
  [09:26] European impotence, failure to act
  [11:17] Public will to fight in Europe is weak

• Trump’s Response & Western Failure:
  [12:54] Trump’s self-interest and alignment with Putin
  [15:34] Western appeasement over decades

• Authoritarian Crisis in America:
  [22:04] The use of crisis (Charlie Kirk assassination) as pretext for authoritarian measures
  [25:12] Trump as one-party ruler, GOP as tool for power

• Systemic Weaknesses & the 2026 Election:
  [30:30] Weak opposition, uncertain judiciary
  [33:18] Kasparov advocates for risk and strategic disruption

• Destruction of Democratic Norms:
  [37:57] The danger of relying on norms and unwritten rules
  [44:06] The need for constant defense of democracy

• Conclusion:
  [45:25–45:56] Mutual gratitude, hope for future renewal
  [46:29+] (End credits/ads)

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Final Thoughts

Garry Kasparov and Charlie Sykes, in urgent and frank terms, dissect the dangers facing both global and American democracy, arguing that passivity, nostalgia, and conventional politics are insufficient for the moment. Instead, they urge opposition leaders and citizens to recognize the historic stakes and act with the necessary urgency and creativity. Kasparov's outsider perspective, deep historical knowledge, and forceful analogies make for a bracing warning: democracy cannot defend itself on autopilot, and every generation must be willing to take risks to preserve it.

“Democracy is always one generation away from extinction.” (44:06, Kasparov quoting Reagan)

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For listeners seeking clarity on the convergence of foreign and domestic threats to democracy—and an unvarnished call to action—this episode is essential.

Transcript

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[Charlie Sykes]

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[Charlie Sykes]

Welcome back to the to the Contrary podcast. I'm Charlie Sykes. We are joined once again by Gary Kasparov, former World Chess champion and the author of the Substack newsletter, the Next Move. Also the co host of the Atlantic's podcast on Autocracy. Welcome back to the podcast, Gary. I appreciate it very, very much.

[Gary Kasparov]

Thanks for having me again.

[Charlie Sykes]

So I right before we started, I said, boy, this has just been a terrible week. And you pointed out it's not just the weak, is it? We live in terrible times.

[Gary Kasparov]

I wish it would be just a week, but we live in terrible times and it's unpredictable. But the only thing we can predict is things could get only worse, no?

[Charlie Sykes]

And that seems like a safe bet. So we were talking about. We'll get to this a little while. The assassination of Charlie Kirk, the arrest of the assassin, and the way that that whole murder is being weaponized by the right in the way that Donald Trump is talking about it and the threats that he's making. But let's start with the other biggest story of the week, the Russian, however you want to call it, incursion into Poland. I mean, this was a major escalation. You had Russian drones clearly targeted at a NATO ally. So let's talk about why you think this happened. Europe's reaction and America's reaction. So let's just start with the, you know, the, the, the fact that. How many weeks now are we after the, the big peace summit in Alaska and tro. And, and, and Putin's reaction has been to launch hundreds of drones against Ukraine and now attacking a NATO ally.

[Gary Kasparov]

You know, what brings together in my mind these assassination of Charlie Cork and Russian attack on Poland. It was predictable. Both were predictable because it's, it's psychological continuation of the, of the following events. And it's, it's, I say predictable because the climate, the whole climate, you know, it indicates that one or another it would happen. If you promote violence for a long time, you know, it's things that, terrible things happen. And as for Putin's attack on Poland, I have been saying it for ages. Dictators do not stop until they stopped. They never ask why, but why not? And escalation became the only way for Putin to keep this war going. And Putin is war. There's no other way he can stay in power. Because after 25 years, every dictator needs some kind of justification. You know, it's kind of a legacy why I'm there. And Putin already exhausted all his, you know, this domestic tools. It's Russian economy doesn't work. It's the people just, you know, they, they can no longer be told lies about, about Putin's, Putin the Great because their living standards just suck.

[Charlie Sykes]

Yeah.

[Gary Kasparov]

So as every dictator before him, so Putin had to look at elsewhere outside of the country for enemies. You always have to explain why the situation in the country is not good and why he must stay on top to lead the nation to defend itself.

[Charlie Sykes]

Is there any doubt in your mind that the attack on Poland was intentional as opposed to just somebody got the coordinates wrong. Was it an intentional attack on a NATO ally?

[Gary Kasparov]

Absolutely. Look, there were 19 wrongs, right? There were many cases where you could argue that it was not intentional. There were a couple of drones that actually landed in Poland before. There were probably two or three in Romania. I think there were a few cases in Finland. One was in Lithuania. I'm not sure that it was unintentional. I still think it was just, you know, just. It's the first, you know, like snippets of just checking, you know, whether this is the reaction. But you could always say, oh, one drone, two drones, Ukrainian anti drone. You know, technology basically forced them to change course, but not with a 19, especially few of them flying, you know, a couple hundred miles deep. Into Polish territory. So it was a liberal attack. Okay.

[Charlie Sykes]

But I understand that he wants to keep the war going, but was he testing. Let's assume that it was. That it was intentional attacking Poland potentially is a major escalation. And bringing together. Is Vladimir Putin now testing the resolve of NATO of the west and how has NATO responded? What did you think about the response of the Europeans to the attack on Poland?

[Gary Kasparov]

Absolutely, he has been testing the resolve of Europeans because let's not forget the war Putin has been conducting is not just a war against Ukraine. And here I'm not speculating, I'm not just telling you just my theories. I simply follow the Russian propaganda lines and what Putin had been saying over years. It's a war against NATO. Actually it's larger a war to reorganize the liberal world order. Vladimir Putin has been very steady in his belief that now we are in the midst of the World War four because World War three in his mind was the Cold War that Soviet Union, the Russian Empire lost. This is the war to take revenge. And he knew that Russia was not strong enough to take on America and NATO. But he was good at covert operations. It's more like, you know, just making clandestine moves. He's a KGB guy and Russia has been engaged in his hybrid war against Europe for years. And Putin's goal was, as he said back in 2005 addressing the joint session of Russian Parliament and Russian Senate, that the collapse of the Soviet Union was the greatest geopolitical catastrophe of 20th century.

[Charlie Sykes]

Yes.

[Gary Kasparov]

And in 2007 he bluntly told leaders of the free world, including Bush 43 at Munich Security Conference, Nathan must go back to 1997 borders. That's the goal. Basically, NATO is viewed as the, as an enemy not of Russia today, but enemy of the ideal, Putin's idealistic view of Russian empire. So NATO has been taking, you know, or just pieces of Russian old greatness. So in Vladimir Putin's mind, Poland as Ukraine as Baltic state as Finland, they all belong to the so called Russian sphere of influence. And that's why he was quite consistent. You, you can blame him, and rightly so, in many crimes he committed. But he was very consistent in his program to expand Russian influence and he was very skillful. Give him credit for weakening, weakening us the free wealth from within. If you look at European politics, every country has a major political force, mostly on the right, but some on the left that are openly supporting Vladimir Putin. And of course here in, in the United States we have many of Putin's sympathizers know as high as an Oval Office.

[Charlie Sykes]

Well, and of course, you know, his return on investment in messing with our elections is pretty dramatically high given what's happened. So what did you think about of the European reaction? Poland invoked Article 4 of the NATO treaty which requires consultation. Were you satisfied that Europe understands the threat or were we just getting more harshly worded letters and hand waves Understand.

[Gary Kasparov]

The threat, but understanding the threat and acting, it's still. There's a distance.

[Charlie Sykes]

Yeah.

[Gary Kasparov]

And I tweeted after these, the, the big summit in China that crowned Xi Jinping as the leader of the Dictators Incorporated, where Vladimir Putin basically, you know, sworn as a vassal to, to, to, to. To see that the new world order that China is trying to build has two cornerstones, American corruption and European impotence. What we saw now, it's another illustration of European impotence. Big talks, it was an attack. Article four is basically nothing. Why not article five? So Putin wanted to achieve few goals. One is to test NATO air defense system. It's a joke. I mean you don't want to use 2.5 million dollar missile to hit $10,000 drone. So Europeans are praying that things may somehow be resolved because Ukraine is resilient. Ukrainians could stop Putin's armies and maybe at one point Trump could change his mind and America would force Russia to the negotiating table. They have no real plan of fighting back yet. Europe has resources. They don't have the same armies, but they have money. They have more people than America. It's from 450 million people. So they have industries, but it's not about even weapons. It's about political will and the general mood of the nation. Ukrainians prove they are willing to die for their country. Baltic nations, they know they have no choice. Finns will fight, Poles will also fight. But the rest of Europe, we already, we look, you look at Germany where only 16% of Germans according to latest poll were willing to fight for their country.

[Charlie Sykes]

Really?

[Gary Kasparov]

Yeah. So now imagine, you know, what, what, what, what would happen if Putin attack decides one day to attack Baltic nations. So Europe, let's be honest. And it's the. I don't often agree with Donald Trump, actually I almost never agree with him. But, but he was right. Europe was spoiled by not, it's not just about spending money, but also by men, by mentality. Decades of, of this complacency because America was there to defend Europe. And all of a sudden Europeans have discovered their unpleasant truth. So they have to defend themselves against the real threat, not an imaginary threat against the real threat against the real army and a guy who is willing to break all the rules and has no allergy for blood and no inclination to withdraw from the most barbaric ways of conducting war.

[Charlie Sykes]

So let's talk about the way Donald Trump has responded. He indicates he was unhappy about it, but I mean the two week deadlines on imposing sanctions come and go and come and go and he's endured several humiliations. I mean the humiliation of the summit in China that you talked about that he wasn't invited to. And rather than impose more sanctions on Russia, he's lifting sanctions. Right. On Russian allies. I saw that you had posted about that. So he's actually going backwards. You know, rather than sanctioning Russia, he in fact is once again rewarding Vladimir Putin for his aggression.

[Gary Kasparov]

Are you surprised? Again, it's. In this unpredictable world, there are few things we can predict. Every decision made by Donald Trump has two criteria and both personal monetization and glorification. That's it. He doesn't care about Ukraine, he doesn't care about Russia, he doesn't care about America. It's all about Donald Trump. So I just this, this morning actually I, I saw that this is there was a recording of Donald Trump's first response to 911 back in 2001. Yes. I mean he bragged that after the Walter was destroyed, his building was the tallest in in the city.

[Charlie Sykes]

It just very much on brand of this person. Yeah.

[Gary Kasparov]

So now he has all the power. He doesn't have to bother about, you know, any response to his actions. And I mean it's almost unlimited opportunities to enrich himself and also just to add glory. So that's why it's, he grabs every opportunity and Putin, it's someone he envies. I'm not here to speculate whether there's something else which I think most likely there was something there that Putin knew about Trump and this is old Trump KGB connections. But just looking at Trump's character. So Putin is a partner and it's not a junior partner, which is quite amazing because Putin is now acting like a satellite of sea and Trump is subordinate to Putin. That gives you an idea where Trump is versus Xi Jinping and China. So Trump was looking for opportunities to actually to advance his cause. Not American, not European, not free will. And of course Putin is there to make offers. I always pointed out that the whole negotiations with Putin has not been conducted by the State Department. Just typically you need State Department or National Security Advisor. There's no one now there but still, you know, it was a Rubio's job. Instead, it was a Trump's business partner who was there. And I can bet you my bottom dollar he didn't talk about American strategic interest. It's all about, you know, what's, what's for me, what's actually what's for my boss. And I just had word from my European friends a couple of days ago that Secretary Bessant told Europeans bluntly that at the end of the hostilities, they would have to return $190 billion of Russian assets frozen Europe to Russia. I wonder if that's true. I wonder, you know, what is what, what is the, what is the Vidkovs that Trump commissions out of the deal.

[Charlie Sykes]

So let's go back before Trump because you wrote a very, I think it was a disturbing and provocative piece earlier this week talking about all of the failures of the West. We didn't just get here in the last week, last month, even the last 10 years. This has been a long, long road of the west being the United States and Europe failing to confront Vladimir Putin and his rise to power and everything that he's done. So talk to me a little bit about what you wrote about the way Vladimir Putin handled the aftermath to 9 11, because we mentioned 911 a little bit earlier and you pointed out the way that Vladimir Putin played the United States, President Bush after that attack on the United States.

[Gary Kasparov]

I think the road to 911 actually began 10 years early in 1991 when the Cold War was won. The Soviet Union has gone and just became history. And that's where America failed. Being totally, just totally in charge is all powerful, failed to come up with a new vision because you always have to write a new chapter to start a new chapter of history. And that was America's responsibility. And if in 1992 when Bill Clinton was elected, so America could basically move the mountains and change the landscape, when Clinton left the office, Al Qaeda was ready to strike and Vladimir Putin was in the office. That tells you that the 90s, they were not good because the momentum to rebuild the world and to, to codify the changes, the triumph of the liberal world order, this momentum was missed. And Vladimir Putin came to power. I don't think he had yet big ambitions at the time, but he had KGB instincts. And his work with Bush 43 began even before 911 when they met in Slovenia in June 1991. And Vladimir Putin, I mean, reading Bush bio and knowing his religious beliefs, he sold him this fake story about a cross, you know, the, you know, the gift from my grandmother that I carried, you know, Just under my, under my shirt. I mean, come on. This is, it's. This. It's a joke. I mean, it's a KGB cross. I mean, it's. But it did work. So Putin already had an experience. He already had a good read of Bush 43. So that's why. First thing he did in 9 11. Hello, I'm here. First one, he jumped it. First one, it's absolutely. He jumped and said, oh, what you. Oh, of course we offer you support. So he really recognized that America would be too busy with the world terror. Again, I, I don't want to speculate that Russia had anything to do with 9 11. No, no, it's. Putin creates opportunities, but much more often he uses them. He's a great opportunist. So this is. He hasn't created this as the, The. The ideological divide, but he saw this. The vogue, you know, versus MAGA. That's opportunity. Same in 91, in 2001, he knew that was his moment. So just basically to neutralize America, and he offered full cooperation. It didn't. It. Russia has never stopped. Never stopped, you know, trading heroin with Afghan warlords. But, you know, he got, you know, Bush, you know, as his friend, and that's why he. He bought time to destroy the very feeble Russian democracy. And that's why by 2005, his second term, he was already willing to make the big statement. And in 2007, he was emboldened enough to look straight into the Bush ice and say, you know what, guys? 1997 Borders, please. Just, you know, I'm here, you know, just ready to dictate the terms. So. And then in 2008, they attacked the Republic of Georgia. And as every time, you know, just as he moved forward, you know, he. He never made moves that could be now just so brazen. He has not attacked Ukraine, whole Ukraine, just. He tried Crimea, then East Ukraine. So he was always, you know, incremental, just, you know, testing the water. But I have to say that it's not just Bush's fault is the west became complacent. It's. This is. Nobody wanted confrontations. And Putin had a good read of the general mood of the Western politicians. It's not about confrontation. It's about doing business. And Putin was very good doing business. Yes, absolutely. Let's do business. Yes. Because contrary to the expectations that doing business with Putin, Russia would liberalize Russia, Russian economy and Russian political life. It was the opposite. It corrupted the Western political life. Its liberalization, you know, never made roots in Russia. But the corruption became widespread everywhere, you know, from Berlin to Washington.

[Charlie Sykes]

No, this is a long and, I think, embarrassing tradition that we've seen of giving in to Vladimir Putin. But I want to kind of connect the dots between. Because you've watched for many, many years, you watched Vladimir Putin's rise to power. You are a student of autocracy, of authoritarianism in other countries. And, and I want to link this to the moment we're in right now, because, and I want to be very, very clear, you know, about the, the tragedy of the murder of Charlie Kirk without any justification whatsoever. I am appalled and disgusted by the people who are celebrating all of this. But I think it's also very obvious that Trump and his allies are weaponizing the assassination of Charlie Kirk and they are talking about retaliation, using the power of the government to go after organizations, entities, speech that they now want to suppress. So does any of this, I mean, give me your sense of the, as we've talked before about the danger of authoritarianism, the use of fear, but there's also, in every story, there's that pretext, there's that moment in which someone says, this embodies the crisis, this embodies the emergency, and this is what I'm going to do. How dangerous is that moment for us now?

[Gary Kasparov]

This moment was dangerous even before this fateful shot in Utah. It just adds to the list of our concerns, grave concerns about the future of American democracy. You mentioned the podcast that I'm doing now. It's the three more episodes to go called Autocracy in Americ, the second season. And also I wrote two articles for the Atlantic called the Putinization of America. And the third one is on the way, actually. It's being submitted, should be published soon. And it's called the Race to Save American Democracy. And I'm truly, you know, it's worried. It's more than worried. I have deep, grave, you name concerns about the outcome of 2026 elections. Not because I expect that the country would rally Donald Trump. It's the opposite. I think the Republicans are just are heading for major defeat in 2026. If, and I emphasize this word, we have free and fair elections. It will be free, but I don't think it will be fair. And I think, I think we're reaching a point where Donald Trump may have enough of critical mass in his administration and the respective agencies that will be willing to cross the ultimate red line and to follow the boss rather than defending the Constitution.

[Charlie Sykes]

Well, you heard his speech the other night in the Oval Office where interesting that the I Don't recall a presidential speech after the murder of the legislators in Minnesota or other crimes. But he specifically made it clear that he was going to target far, far left radicals, their speech, and they're going to go after organizations that might have engaged it. And if you look at the rhetoric that you see on the right right now talking about how it's war and we need vengeance, we are in a. I mean, just talk very specifically about, I want you to talk specifically about the aftermath of Charlie Kirk, this act of, of violence. You know, we've been on, it's all predictable. We've been on this path for some time. Are there those moments that are those pivotal moments? And I'm, I'm struggling not to use the term Reichstag fire, but there is always that pretext, that excuse for, for authoritarians to enhance their power and attack their enemies. So what are you hearing when Donald Trump talks about that? We're going to go after the rhetoric, the far left rhetoric. Does that mean that anyone that calls Trump, compares him, uses the word fascism or talks about authoritarianism or talks about racism, that anyone who does that somehow is now complicit in an act of violence and there's going to be retaliation?

[Gary Kasparov]

Look, Donald Trump never delivered presidential speeches. He was not making a secret that he was not running the country on behalf of all Americans. He was a party president, actually, not a party president, a MAGA president. So he proudly said and repeated many times that he represented his base, not even the whole gop. The GOP has been subdued by the base. So Donald Trump knows that this is the base that must stay loyal. And, and he plays, you know, just the tune that they love. And it did work. So that's why it's every time that, you know, he thought, you know, he could, you know, just, it was on bumpy road and if something didn't go right, so he doubled down. So now it's an ideal opportunity to push his agenda, which has been properly described in, for instance, his State of the Union. So he, he's looking for, for, for presidential rule being, you know, just supported only by one party. In his mind, he is already running one party dictatorship. So that's why I'm saying that 2026 midterm is so important. It's probably one of the most, I don't like to say most, but one of the most faithful elections in American history because he cannot afford losing the House. I'm not even talking about the Senate. He cannot lose the House because then the whole construction falls apart. It's like a domino effect. So that's why he will use every opportunity. And unfortunately that too many of them. When you look at your cash, Patel or many others there, do you have confidence that if Donald Trump tells them to cross this, this bridge and to violate constitutional order, they would say no? I doubt very much. And of course, the tragedy as one that happened in Utah offers unlimited opportunities to push the agenda. Again, it's not that. It's, we're not speculating. It's amazing that when dictators always lie about what they've done, but they always tell you what they're planning to do. Donald Trump's plans to establish one party rule where he stays there on top as a king. It's not a secret he has been saying that and many people around him, without probably being so blunt, but they also supported this vision. So when you hear the Carolyn Levitt or just others saying, oh, these activist judges standing on the way of presidential agenda, they have been openly questioning the core element of American democracy, the constitutional idea of separation of powers, of this, of the balance. And while Congress is paralyzed, so this is, the judge is also being under attack. So that's why I think that we are now entering this new phase where they will do whatever they can legally and beyond that to secure the elections in 2026, because he cannot, cannot afford to lose the very thin, razor thin majority in the House.

[Charlie Sykes]

You know, I'm coming around to this point of view because you look at Donald Trump and you realize that he's not the first, he's not the first leader who is riding the tiger and realizes he can't get off because right now he cannot afford to give up that power. It is simply too dangerous for him to do it. And the rhetoric that you're seeing now is not the rhetoric of democratic debate, give and take, where, you know, the other party is the enemy. You look at the MAGA rhetoric that we are at war. You know, one side must win, one side must lose. You are evil, you are dangerous, you are a terrorist. You don't compromise with people that you regard as your enemy in warfare. And so Trump has almost moved past the democratic norms so many times. But it is important to understand what the implications of that are. The other big question, okay, I just want, you know, parenthetically, when you talk about one party rule, every once in a while I'll get asked about, well, there's a public opinion poll showing he's, you know, 57%, you know, underwater. The only numbers that I think Donald Trump really genuinely cares about at this point are, is he holding his Republican base together? Because as long as he's got 90% support of the Republican base in a gerrymandered country, he still can control power. It doesn't matter. He doesn't have to convince you or me or anybody from Vermont or California or, you know, Dane county in Wisconsin. As long as he has that power, he's going to be satisfied. And he has it. And the other big question that you raised there, that you referred to, and I think this is one of the reasons why there's so much anxiety is I don't think that there's a, you know, I get your take on, on this. How confident are we that the judiciary would stand against this momentum? Because I agree with you that they will try to stay in power. But what is your level of confidence in the US Supreme Court saying, okay, we've gone along with a lot, but we're going to draw a red line here.

[Gary Kasparov]

I wouldn't bet my bottom dollar on Supreme Court being the last line of defense for American Constitution. No, they kept, they keep saying that they would not, you know, let Constitution to be abandoned. But there are so many ways to go around. So for instance, I think on tariffs, they would probably rule against Trump. I think so. Again, not sure.

[Charlie Sykes]

Yeah.

[Gary Kasparov]

But as for the troops in the cities, I'm not so sure. So, and by the way, that's more important. It's the, it's, I would not count on Supreme Court offering the ironclad defense against Donald Trump open intentions to extend his rule at the expense of other branches. Now, the Article 1 is not judges, it's Congress. So that's the key. So that's why looking at what's happening in the Congress is the most important thing. And I think that the problem is not Donald Trump's aggressive policies and him pushing his agenda even with this very, very small racist in majority. I think the problem is that the opposition, I mean, you have now 213 votes in the House and they are very, I would say they're very quiet. You should give hell to Speaker Johnson every day. You know, you have to do whatever you can, you know, just to create this tension. All you need is four Republicans to shift sides. You have to put pressure. I don't see the pressure. I think that's, this is, it's not just Donald Trump, you know, having the juggernaut now that is just, is moving just towards, you know, the, what is left of the fortified American Constitution. You don't have the real opposition on the Other side, they're still contemplating whether that's the right move, whether this one they parties badly divided. And it's, again, it's, it's, this is our fundamental challenge. So this is, you can't win against, against the bully with the army behind him. Even this army, as you said, it's, It's a base 25% of the country. But you don't have the coalition that could be powerful enough to confront them because that's the way to send a message to the hesitant Republicans from purple states that there is something that they have to count. But not only being just, you know, being terrified by Donald Trump's unlimited powers.

[Charlie Sykes]

Well, Democrats have to decide in the next couple of weeks whether they're going to go, go along keeping the government open or whether they're going to shut down the government. My sense is the political momentum is very much against Democrats caving in. Again, what do you think? Do you have some thoughts about all of this? Because again, they're playing out the multiple moves. You know, if we, if the government shuts down, you know, will Trump then blame it on us? You know, what is our exit strategy? What do you think? What should the Democrats do?

[Gary Kasparov]

Look, it's not, it's not an easy decision, but as, as, as in a previous moment, you know, just few months ago, I have the same opinion. They have to shut down the government. It's, Trump is in power because it's the. Yeah, I know it may have dramatic consequence. It's a risky move, but you don't win the war against, you know, it's a rising authoritarianism by not taking risk, you cannot play safe. Yeah, it's, yeah, you're moving in untested waters. But this state is no longer your friend. This state is not serving American people. So fight. Yes, it's a fight. It's a real fight. It is a problem, but it's a Trump's problem. Yes, he may start expanding his powers. He does it anyway. But it's this. At the end of the day, the American voter looks at who is in the Oval Office. He's there. And I think this, Ian, his approval rating is not that high. So to basically blame Democrats. So yes, maybe MAGA will stay behind him. But as for independence and others. So create, create uncertainty helps the underdog. That's, that's a rule of any fight. And Democrats that are underdogs now, so you need uncertainty because uncertainty will create more hesitations, doubts among Republicans. Don't forget you need four, just four. So they have some of Them are retiring, you don't know. So this is. Create problems, I think, of that type. They, they, strategically, as a professional player, I can tell you they always benefit the weaker side.

[Charlie Sykes]

Really. See, I think that Edward Klein really put his finger on it when he said, look, let's stop pretending that this is normal, that the normal rules of politics apply. You have these guys that have been sitting in the Senate, Chuck Schumer, for decades now, and he's got a certain playbook. And at some point you go, no, this government is not like any other government that you have dealt with. The playing field is completely different. And unless you adjust to these new, new rules, you will get swept away. So I think for a lot of these folks, they fear the uncertainty, they fear the risk. And yet, given this moment, there is no way through this without taking risks. Right. Without being aggressive. Absolutely.

[Gary Kasparov]

We see it already too much territory. And we just have to say we have to put the flag somewhere. So that's the line. And stand by this line. Is it risky? Absolutely. But you have to take risk. And you pointed out that they've been around for too long. They want to play the same game, but this is not the same game. You just look at Trump's appointees. So this is the people that have been approved by the Senate. So when was the last time that the Secretary of Defense, oh, now Secretary of War, should I say I'm not been. Has been approved by the Senate by the, by the, by the casting vote of Vice President. Typically, positions of that type is, it's, you need bipartisan support. So you had Hexag, you had Tulsi Gilbert, you had Cash Patel, you had Kennedy Jr. So they all, you know, just, you know, it's approved by the party lines, even losing few Republican votes. So, so it's, it's, this is abnormal. This is absolutely abnormal. And pretending that you can, you can win the game, that is not played by the rules. Following the rules. I mean, sorry, that's the wishful thing.

[Charlie Sykes]

Well, I mean, you know, and again, part of it is this moment we're in, where you can imagine, and this is not, I don't think, speculation that they sit around the Oval Office and somebody might, I think it's unlikely tell the president, you can't do this because it's illegal. It would violate the law. And my guess is that the consensus then is suddenly, well, who cares? We are above the law. You have a president who's immune from personal accountability, who has unlimited pardon power. And in case after you hear something, you know, you hear a story saying, well, this action violates the law, but who's going to enforce it? You know, we just blew up a boat in the Caribbean with 11 people in it that may violate international law. What are the consequences? Who's gonna hold anybody accountable for it? So this big, so what, this is part of the new reality that you have a president who feels that he has unlimited power and that the laws that normally constrain elected officials don't apply to him or his gang.

[Gary Kasparov]

Back in 2016 and 17, I wrote few articles pointing out to the American public that many of the, many of the elements of American democracy, this is, of this constitutional order have not been codified, but rather been adopted as the, as a norm. Yeah, nobody did it before. Aha. Thank you very much. Nobody did before is not an argument. So. And I predicted Donald Trump would go after these norms, challenging them, because at the end of the day. So what is this? It's a piece of paper. It's the Constitution. And I actually write about, about it in my next article. It's my conversation with Barara on his podcast. When I asked him about. It was back, you know, in late November after Trump's elections last year, whether the Constitution would prevent Trump running for the third time. And he said, oh, it's ironclad. I said, are you sure? So this is, again, it's ironclad as long as people are willing to fight and even die for it. So it's the, the whole idea, not just of America, built on the law, you know, starting from Mayflower comeback is based on the idea that it's, it's more dangerous not to follow the law than just, than to stick within the boundaries of the law because it's more profitable. So standards can change. I mean, today nobody would even notice. Watergate. We have Watergate every hour.

[Charlie Sykes]

No.

[Gary Kasparov]

So this. And again, it's just 50 plus years ago we had a president. It is, it's resigning because of this moral, I mean, it's kind of violation of moral norms. So. That's right. It's not even, it wasn't even codified, but that's, you know, that's what made the country, you know, just put a. Put country ablaze. So now I think that we are reaching a point where many people around Trump who are not protected by the immunity clause, Trump is, but they're not.

[Charlie Sykes]

Yeah.

[Gary Kasparov]

So they will have to make a choice whether it is to follow Trump or a Constitution. And I think some of them, and God forbid, if it's a critical mass, may decide that it's more dangerous to follow the norm because if they lose power, it could be consequences. So, for instance.

[Charlie Sykes]

I don't know. Yeah, I don't know whether those people are around anymore.

[Gary Kasparov]

No, but it's, yeah, this is, yeah, but you, you have, you know, people that's, let's say the military. So this is the, it's the, we need this ongoing purge of top military, of top military brass now. So are you sure that, you know, they would be, they would have enough, you know, spine to tell Trump that they would not go to blue cities, New York, Chicago or Baltimore. So if the order is being given with all the constitutional uncertainties, because they, the oath is to the Constitution, not to Trump, not to the president. But it's the, Again, it's, it's a very, it's, it's not a clear. So, yeah, it's, it's. I, I think that it's, it's. Unless we fight now, because that's why I say this is, use every opportunity to fight, you know, even if it's shut down of the country, force crisis now, because playing, you know, by the book, it's you, you are going to lose, and we are going to lose. I'm not telling you that playing, you know, just a, playing aggressively, we're going to win, but statistically, it's, it's our best chance to start pushing back. You have to fight fire with fire.

[Charlie Sykes]

Well, you know, you were talking about the fragility of the norms. And I remember thinking during Trump's first term that when I was on these programs with people who were talking about all the norms that protected the Department of Justice, and if you listen closely and if you realize, as you point out, that it's not actually in the law, it's not codified, it was basically by an honor system. And, and that the system is really designed with the assumption that you will have honorable men and women in office or surrounded by other honorable men and women who would hold them accountable. And so all of that was this informal belief that human beings would do the right thing, that there would be a moral accountability. If you take that away, and this is what Donald Trump, he's looking around and going, none of that's worth anything. If I just simply defy it. Who's gonna do anything about it? So if you fight by the old rules that assume that there is this culture of shame or there are these guardrails and bulwarks of accountability, you're going to lose. You are absolutely right. So we're Gonna find out very, very soon whether or not Democrats understand that. I think, and my, and my, and my guess is their base is going to demand that they, that they not cave in. It's like you, you cannot, on the one hand, say this is an existential threat and then behave like it's business as usual. You can't do that.

[Gary Kasparov]

Look, you see. No, I understand the temptation because they still look at, oh, health care. Health care is a big issue and we have to negotiate. We have to find a way. So. But it's not about health care. It's about the future of the Republic. This is the biggest price and none of them ever fought for this. So as somebody was born and raised in the Soviet Union and saw the rise, very short rise of democracy in Russia at feeble democracy and it's collapsed. And also having many friends from the countries that also had this very short and unhappy experience with democracy that followed by another rise of totalitarian rule. So I could see all the signs. And, and it's, it's, it doesn't, you know, democracy doesn't, you know, survive on its own. This is not magic. So it's, this is, it's, it's, it's a prophecy, you know, just coming from Ronald Reagan, you know, this. Democracy never. It's, it's, it's. Oh, this is the one generation away.

[Charlie Sykes]

Right?

[Gary Kasparov]

Democracy is always one generation away from extinction.

[Charlie Sykes]

Yeah.

[Gary Kasparov]

So this is. Yeah, that's exactly. Every generation has to fight. And now we have the biggest threat. So. Which means you have to fight. So it's the, and, and it's, it's, again, it's. We're not fighting these. It's not just Republican Party because when you look at the current policies, so it's, I have no doubt that Reagan and Goldwater will be expelled from the party just, you know, for not, you know, following, following the line imposed by Donald Trump. Because it's, this is with, with a ruler like Trump. You know, it's not, you know, the, the, the, the truth is not what Deal leader says, but what Deal says now because tomorrow Trump can compliment himself. And I'm truly, I'm shocked that so many Republican senators and members of the House, you know, people that I just, you know, I used to look at and just, you know, was not with an of. But there's just certain respect. They just follow these lines and they willing to, not just to lie, but basically to, to refute themselves. So this is, it's amazing. So you just said something yesterday and now this is. You try to find a way just to escape from your own statements that were absolutely perfect, impeccable from moral point of view, but because Trump changed his mind. So they also. They're running for cover. Shame.

[Charlie Sykes]

Well, they're running for cover and they apparently have decided that being a senator is more important than standing up for even what they believed yesterday, which is, again, it is shocking. It is amazing. Gary Kasparov, it is always an honor to talk with you. I appreciate it very, very much. Thank you.

[Gary Kasparov]

Thank you very much for having me. And I guess I hope that one day we can talk about, you know, this is the true rise of America. So just, you know, returning to greatness, not to these terrible times that we live in.

[Charlie Sykes]

Yeah, let me put that in the calendar for future conversations. I really, really want. I really want to have. And thank you all. Thank you all for listening to this episode of to the Contrary podcast. I'm Charlie Psych. You know why we do this, why we're going to continue to do this, despite everything that's going on? Because we need to continually remind ourselves that we are not the crazy ones.

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