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Avoiding your unfinished home projects because you're not sure where to start. Thumbtack knows home so you don't have to don't know the difference between matte, paint, finish and satin or what that clunking sound from your dryer is. With thumbtack, you don't have to be a home pro, you just have to hire one. You can hire hire top rated Pros see price estimates and read reviews all on the app Download today. I'm Charlie Sykes. Welcome back to the to the Contrary podcast. You know, the zone is flooded once again with the Epstein files. You knew that that was actually going to be coming. It does feel as if Donald Trump has done everything possible. I wrote this in my newsletter yesterday. He's tried all the distractions, he's tried the COVID ups. For whatever reason, this guy has bragged that he could shoot somebody in the middle of Fifth Avenue and not lose a vote. And of course he tried to. He orchestrated a coup and got reelected. He was a convicted felon and got another four years in office. Federal jury found that he was liable for sexually abusing a woman and it did not stop him. But there's something about these Epstein files that has him spooked and I think we're going to find out why. We had all those emails. We're not going to dive too much into that because I don't know that they are smoking guns. They certainly do not look good. But we do know that more is coming because we, you know, as, as the government reopens, we're going to have the new congresswoman from Arizona who's going to be sworn in 50 days after she won the special election. The House of Representatives has been in this sort of stupor for several months now. But now they're going to get back to. The first thing that's going to happen will be that she will become the 218th vote on the discharge petition, which will require a House floor vote, this floor vote that Mike Johnson and Donald Trump absolutely, positively do not want to have about releasing the Epstein file. So this story is not going away anytime soon. So joining me today is the author, editor, creator of the Talking Feds substack, Harry Lippman. Thanks for coming back on, Harry.
- [04:27]
A
Always a pleasure. Charlie and I want to talk about whatever you want to talk about, but let me comment quickly. I agree with everything you said, but the stupor here, I think we now need to realize, was a self induced stupor. They had delicate negotiations where they were holding the line. I agree with you lamentably that the Dems kind of caved. But on the shutdown we now know, I mean, that the Republicans knew this was coming. These three emails were coming out. And I want to point out this is just what they've gotten from the Epstein estate over a year ago. It's not at all the 300,000 page cash that the Department of Justice is still hiding and that the vote will be about. But had it, had it come out then I think we now have a better vantage point on why Johnson shut down the Congress. Because had it come out then who knows what impact it would have had and what kind of backpedaling and might have occasioned by the Republicans on the whole shutdown dynamic. And even these three, they are catnip. We can talk about them if you like. But I think the headline is from the, the most sort of elliptical email between G. Lane Maxwell and Epstein, which I think makes it pretty damn clear that Maxwell lied to Todd Blanche when she said and or what are very carefully tacked around knowled had of Trump by saying I didn't witness it. But she was perfectly unsurprised by his saying that he had spent hours in Epstein's house with I think a victim who's been identified, at least by the Republicans as Virginia G. Free. So I just want to say this is just a small part that doesn't have to do with the big mother load.
- [06:22]
B
No, it doesn't have to do with the big mother load. And look, look, there's, as you and I have discussed, there's a different level of proof and you know, beyond a reasonable doubt, the kind of evidence you could present him. But you know, it is the worst kept secret in American history that Donald Trump and Jeffrey Epstein hung out together. It is not a mystery that Donald Trump had a thing for young women like Jeffrey Epstein did. It is not a mystery that these guys, you know, had some kind of a weird relationship and that and that Ghislaine Maxwell knows it. I mean, none of this stuff really is a secret. I mean we shouldn't tie ourselves in pretzels like, wow, is there something there? Of course there's something there. The question is what is there that is so embarrassing and I feel like a broken record on all this. What is there that's so embarrassing that Donald Trump is willing to spend this much political capital that Mike Johnson was willing to shut down the House of Representatives of the United States not to have this particular vote, especially when they have. It is MAGA world who has been beating the drums on this for a very, very, very long time. And you know what? Some Democrats are going to go down. They're a lot of prominent people who are going to go down. But boy, it is extraordinary the degree to which Donald Trump does not want people to see what is in these, these, these emails. Now, by the time the people see this podcast, we will have gotten the reaction to the, this first tranche of embarrassing emails. The Republicans have now released a bunch of emails which also quite frankly, are kind of creepy. Don't make Donald Trump look that great. There's nothing in this story that's gonna make Donald Trump look like the law and order protector of Christendom and of children, let's put it that way. Right.
- [08:08]
A
That's for sure. But there, but we might have thought, I mean, your point is very well taken, Charlie, and you're very right to insist on this. Isn't prosecution beyond a reasonable doubt. It's where there's smoke, is there fire? But we, we have to put it in the context of all the things, starting from Access Hollywood that Trump has just managed to shrug off. And there's something here that every time it comes back around, they are, you know, scrambling and ducking big time. And that has had political purchase, including with the home team, which makes it so distinctive. So that's part of the, the sort of human reaction. It's the dynamic of every cover up. Right. Why are they fighting so hard? There must be something there. And you know, man, oh man, there's certainly a lot to learn. And I'll just again say this is old news. But, but remember Pam Bondi saying, oh, we're going to release everything and then, oops, never mind. So you're going to hear a lot about what are they sitting on that we haven't seen? The American.
- [09:13]
B
Yeah, I mean, there's some great montages of all the MAGA folks, whether it's Pam Bondi, whether it's Cash Patel, you, Dan Bongino. Whatever happened to Dan Bongino, by the way?
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A
Right.
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B
I haven't heard about him in a while.
- [09:24]
A
He apparently hates his job, but he's still there. And I don't know if you saw that great expose on Cash Patel and his whole stewardship in the Wall Street Journal, but man, both the FBI, which as you know, is technically part of the Department of Justice, the whole department is so completely dysfunctional and underwater and the FBI is part of it, 90%. The bureau, current and former, belongs to a union that just came out and really pilloried Cash Patel. That's a scandal, I think, that isn't going away. But as a picture of dysfunction in the FBI, it is in lockdown and a total mess except where it's pursuing John Brennan or, you know, doing the political.
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B
Which I want to get. Yeah. Want to get to. Okay, so let me tell you an anecdote that I heard from somebody. I'm trying, I won't try to identify them, but you Know, I mean, it used to be, as you probably know, that I.
- [10:25]
A
What are you hiding, Charlie?
- [10:27]
B
From the Republican world, who occasionally would go back and forth and, you know, there's a certain, you know, porousness at various times. And this one person was telling me that he was flying, had to fly in on an Air Force One and, or a helicopter, I can't remember which, with Donald Trump. And he was being briefed by my mutual friend, like, what to expect. You know, what is it going to be when you're sitting there across from Donald Trump? And the thing that struck everybody was that he was warned. Okay, now, just so you know, Trump is going to talk an awful lot about women's breasts. And it's just like, you're just going to have to go, don't, don't be shocked about it. He does it all the time. He's kind of obsessed. So you're going to have a lot of. And I'm not going to use the term that they use, but this is the kind. So, again, there is this understanding within the entire political universe. Of course, Donald Trump has been, you know, publicly a horn dog for decades. A guy bragged about walking in on teenage beauty contestants walking into their locker rooms saying that the only thing that matters is if you have a nice, you know, piece of ass on your arm. And I'm sorry to use that term, but Donald Trump has been talking about this for years now. Again, it's not.
- [11:41]
A
He was convicted in New York of a scheme that involved, you know, sex with a porn star. Right. You know, so what is it about convicted. I saw, you know, Stormy testify. Right.
- [11:53]
B
It's. Yeah, yeah, it's actually, it's actually out there. So I want to talk about some of the things that happened this week because you had a really, really good piece about Trump's ongoing attempt to whitewash history. And I have to admit, and I have to confess once again, and this is happening almost on a weekly basis where I'll see something, and I think, oh, that has to be AI or that has to be a spoof, or that has to be something old. And on the front page of your article, which I'm holding up here talking Feds Podcast, you have a picture of January 6th. This is a story about all of the pardons, what, 77 pardons of various big Lie actors. You know, whether you're talking about, I mean, everybody, you know, Mark Meadows, Boris Epstein, Rudy Giuliani, John Eastman, Kenneth Cheesborough, Sidney Powell, all of those people, you know, Christina, Bob, I mean, people's names you've even forgotten. But what you had here was with a, A tweet and. Or a post, whatever it is, from Ed Martin, Eagle. Ed Martin, who is the head of the pardon office of the Justice Department. Right.
- [12:55]
A
And the having been rejected to be the U.S. attorney in D.C. right.
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B
Yeah. Because he's too fucking nuts.
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A
Posted and partisan. Yeah.
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B
And no MAGA left behind. This is an official of the Justice Department. The day of these pardons of all of the big liars. No MAGA left behind. I thought, okay, is it something left over from, you know, 2021? Is it something old? No, he actually posted this, which is again, a reminder that they are openly basically saying, for my friends, everything for my enemies, the law. But let's talk about this because you put this in a very interesting context. You called these massive mass pardons. And by the way, just so everybody understands, these are only pardons for federal law. Many of them are preemptive. They are, you know, perhaps largely symbolic because they are still subject to state law. But you call it a sinister attempt to whitewash history. And I think that's the larger picture that Donald Trump is aggressively trying to. To completely retcon our memory and understanding of the January 6 attack on the.
- [14:09]
A
Capitol, which happened in front of our eyes. Right. And there. And there. Yeah. So there's so many aspects of this you can. You're right. In a sense, these people wouldn't be likely to be tried while he's president and while the statute limitations.
- [14:28]
B
Right.
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A
But two very concrete and very, I would say, damaging aspects of it. First, it's a pretty good wink and a nod to anyone who he will petition to help him again in 2026 if it comes to don't worry, I got your back. If I would do something so brazen here, why wouldn't I do it there? And then second, and this really. Did Charlie have smoke coming out of my ears? You know, we see as you just it in the preface, this cascade of events. They go by and they go by and, and sometimes if they feel like they're all sort of, I don't know, DEFCOM 2. This to me was DEFCOM 9. Because think of every. This happened in front of our eyes, right. And think of every big condign event in American history starting, you know, the Kennedy assassination, 9, 11. Even if the people escape justice, it's so vital to a democracy to understand what happened. And that doesn't occur because people, you know, come forward and give oral histories. It occurs because government investigates with subpoena Power people who are subject to Jeopardy. And these just start with these big six. They're unindicted coconspirators listed in the actual indictment of Trump. Why aren't they named? Because they wanted to move quickly on Trump and not gum up the works. But these guys, no. And Mark Meadows, who isn't an unindicted co conspirator because he was cooperating a little. All that is dead and buried now. I thought of the last scene in Raiders of the Lost Ark, where the ark is pushed to the warehouse and put in the back and no one will see it again. How there are so many even knowing the basics, which exactly as you say, they're trying to change the facts in front of our eyes. So Orwellian, you know, was that, oh, it was all love in, and I did nothing wrong. But even besides that, what was going on on January 6th? What was Meadows talking with so many members of Congress about, and were they involved? How jubilant was. There's really quite a bit to put together, and, man, oh, man, I'm not sure we ever will. That bastard has kind of, you know, kept totally hobbled any future, even undertaking, just to find the facts. That, for democracy, I think, is really grievous.
- [17:02]
B
Well, let me just read you what you wrote here. You know, Trump, but talk about the way that Trump went about doing this. Trump's statement announcing the pardons was nothing less than infuriating. He referred to the 77 as victims of political persecution. This is an official document who are targeted.
- [17:16]
A
It's a presidential proclamation.
- [17:18]
B
The Constitution. Yeah. Targeted for defense. Defending the Constitution. Trump's proclamation declared that the pardons basically correct a grave national injustice perpetrated upon the American people following the 2020 presidential election and continue the process of national reconciliation. As you point out, the grave national injustice was the conspiracy to overthrow an election. The national reconciliation is a demand for collective amnesia. And this is what I come back to. And last week on the podcast, actually, I talked with Adam Kinzinger. There's a new movie. I don't know if you've seen it. It's a documentary. It's really, really good. Called, you know, the Last Republican. And I have to say that it makes for tough watching because you go back to what happened on January 6, what we all saw with our own eyes, what we all experienced, all of the evidence that came out, how, you know, and just the. How egregious the entire thing was. And it's all been well documented. And yet, as you point out, it's all being wiped away. It is the collective amnesia. No, you did not see what you thought. You see, you know, there was a time when, when, when Kevin McCarthy stood on the floor of the House and pointed the finger at Donald Trump, when Mitch McConnell said he was morally responsible. And now it's like, you know, it's like this mind thing, you know. No, you didn't see it. And he's wiping it out. But I want to go back to that.
- [18:45]
A
And at a minimum, Charlie, there are children and grandchildren to come for whom, yeah, they heard about it and they'll hear about. He's not going to succeed in completely bleaching it from history, but it's going to be, you know, as you say, it's a presidential proclamation and, you know, it will always be. So who's left, sort of historians to deal with now, you know, what a huge bounty it is for Donald Trump, the most perfidious criminal, to occupy the White House. If future people say, well, on the one hand. On the other hand, There is no goddamn other hand. But now he has tried to embed it in history and really cripple our opportunity to fully develop the facts. The facts in the time you're standing.
- [19:34]
B
And he's doing it in a completely nakedly partisan way, which is why that Ed Martin tweet that I mentioned, no MAGA left behind. It would be as if, as if President Obama issued support and says, no progressive Democrat left behind. You know. No, I mean, what.
- [19:53]
A
And by the way, let me tell you what Martin is. Can I make a little left behind, right? A little legal nerdy point that I think Martin's referring to. He not only names and lists 77 people, but he says basically anybody who had anything to do with these events, including people not named, would be the intent. Like Steve Bannon. Now, you would think, Give me a break. There's gotta be a limit. You can't just not name people and have them get pardons. But I'll tell you what, this has never happened before in this brazen and I think, you know, high crime and misdemeanor way. But remember Jimmy Carter and Amnesty's. There is precedent in this country for just naming a situation. You're gonna have people like Steve Bannon come forward, if they're ever challenged, and say, well, look, this covers me. Just as unknown draft dodgers were covered by Jimmy Carter. And because no president has ever tried it, it's not clear what the right result there is. Just total, total lunacy.
- [21:00]
B
Yeah. And let me just read you one quote from Former Justice Department Inspector General Michael Bromwich, who said the pardon process is a method for granting executive grace for deserving criminal defendants, has now been replaced by a pay to play system that is a thinly disguised form of bribery. And he's also obviously referring to the crypto billionaire who was done. And again, this is, you know, it does feel like the Mafia presidency. Right. It's like, you know, that if you are. If you are with me, I'm going to protect you. If you have criticized me, I'm coming after you. And by the way, you made a point that is really crucial. I think the largest point here is not just the. I mean, obviously the whitewashing history is huge, but also it is prospective, as you point out. It is this signal to 2026, but also to 2028, that if you decide to have fake electors or if you decide that you are going to try to overturn the election and you violate the law, don't worry, I have your back. I will have your back up until the last day that I am in office. So that none of them.
- [22:03]
A
And why wouldn't he, with all he's done already? Like, it would add to the outrage as he's leaving.
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B
Yeah, yeah. You know, so what I was reminded was watching this Kissinger movie was, you know, that was at various points you had all the.
- [22:14]
A
Kinsinger. Kinzinger, yeah.
- [22:16]
B
What did I say?
- [22:18]
A
I thought you said Kissinger. I don't know.
- [22:20]
B
Oh, no, no, no. Kinzinger, yeah. No, please edit that out. The Kinzinger movie is a reminder that, you know, there were meetings with all the top officials of the Justice Department under Donald Trump, and all of the grownups in the room basically said, no, you can't do this, violate the law. You had people within the White House, including the White House counsel, who said, you know, if we do X, Y or Z, we will be charged with all of these crimes, all of these things that will happen. What Donald Trump has basically done is, number one, none of those people are going to be in the room with him ever again. Right. He has made sure that they are all loyalists. And number two, they don't have to worry anymore about, you know, committing any crime to overturn the election, because, again, no MAGA Left behind is not just saying, no MAGA who has been treated unjustly or unfairly left behind. If you are maga, you now can commit any act under the wings of Donald Trump's pardon. It is really a breathtaking moment. And unfortunately, they kind of, as you point out, get lost in the, you know, lost. Yeah, yeah.
- [23:24]
A
And I just want to go back to what Bromwich said because, I mean, what partially plays into this is the Supreme Court immunity opinion. It's clear. Charles. Charlie, you can use the pardon power in a way that is criminal. You could bribe, you could obstruct justice, though you'll never be brought to justice after the Supreme Court. But what are pardons about? They are part and parcel of the overall justice system. And we have, have always had in the Department of Justice these criteria that you have to fulfill. What are they? You would. You're contrite, you admit your guilt. It's been more than five years, you're rehabilitated and you're on the. That's the whole idea. It's consistent with guilt and rehabilitation. These are exactly the people who, following the brassy example of Donald Trump, are saying, yeah, it was right. We are patriots. The people who dare to object to this are the somehow the traitors to the American cause. It is as Orwellian and ass backwards as could be. And just, you know, as a practical matter, and maybe he gets, he'll. And as a historical matter, he at least somewhat gets away with it. And that he gets away with it, even a scintilla, is a deep, deep stain on really the country.
- [24:44]
B
Okay, let's, let's have a mood shift here and look on a more positive basis because do you have any good.
- [24:50]
A
Music to put on?
- [24:52]
B
Actually Happy. I have, I have a piece by Harry Litman with the title.
- [24:58]
A
There you go. Okay.
- [25:00]
B
Raise of hope. I'm holding this up because, I mean, things move so quickly, it's sort of easy to forget. And I do think that it's important. So, I mean, a week ago you could sit down and go, you know, the rule of law has actually had its best 10 days since Trump returned to office.
- [25:14]
A
Yeah.
- [25:16]
B
And I do think that we ought to, you know, acknowledge that. So, so just give me your sense of what that was about. I mean, in no particular order here, the Comey and the James and the Letitia James prosecutions really appear to be falling apart. What's the update, the status there? Because this is at the heart of the Trump administration is the, is the campaign of retribution, the turning the Department of Justice into a praetorian guard of revenge. Not going so well though, is isn't.
- [25:44]
A
And you know, look, the question maybe you and I feel above all others is, is there a way out of this, this terrible jungle? And so the rays of hope here suggests that there is. It doesn't mean that he's not, you know, acting outrageously. It doesn't mean that there won't be a herculean task of trying to clean up after. But yeah, as you say, the forces that could get us out of this mess are first, you know, the ones who have been responding district court, state AGs and, and the Comey and James prosecutions. I actually hope to go to Alexandria next week to see that hearing are pushbacks against this completely corrupt agenda. But you also have. I, I'd say it's sort of continued this week. A federal judge of 40 years stepped off the bench because he couldn't handle being muzzled. Because what's happening is that was amazing crisis. Yeah. You have, you know, but, but more than that, the sandwich guy acquitted Mom. So what. What you're seeing is both, both the kind of holding the line of the people and forces who have already done it added to. And this was the raise of hope point, the glimmer. And more than a glimmer, the kind of, you know, half glass, half empty, half full from the U.S. supreme Court that we've always seen is abetting him at every important turn. There are a couple cases where they've indicated they won't go his way. And if that happens, that's huge. And you also have what is the final, final card that I think we're all relying on? It's the Lincoln quote of, you know, with public sentiment, there's nothing you can't do and without it, there's nothing you can do. We really have people who by and large have been, you know, autocracies are a little boring. Right. You're still getting up, driving to work. But, but when you've lost the demarc, we've all loss maga and everyone would have will lose something so dear. And you have a growing popular sentiment prompted by all the, you know, the terrible un American brutal way they're dealing with, you know, people whose immigration is not in order. You know, you have a growth of public sentiment that I think will only increase. So those. And I was able, when, you know, I, when I started writing it, Charlie, I thought there'd be three or four good things have happened. I got up to 10 of things that like really portend the American peoples and maybe even the US Supreme Court not, not tolerating the ultimate demolition of the, of the democratic experiment. Yeah.
- [28:38]
B
I mean, obviously the, the big moment was that Supreme Court hearing about the tariff power, which I was going to say it took people by surprise. I don't think it actually took Donald Trump by surprise. Just bear with me here. He was, he was worried about that, he was afraid about that. He's been obsessed about it. He understands how important it is. But also he, he, for some reason he was worried that, that his conservative appointees, the conservative members of that court, might actually act as conservatives when it comes to this, this executive overreach. Right. And so he is clearly trying to work the refs. Right. He is trying to intimidate the judges, he's trying to put pressure on them.
- [29:16]
A
You're gonna bring the world economy down. Right, right, right.
- [29:20]
B
So that was the also you wrote again, going back to your piece. The Supreme Court issues a heartening order in Trump versus Illinois. And I have to admit that I had not paid this much attention. This is again one of these cases where Trump filed, you know, an emergency application in the case involving the National Guard. And the court, as you point out, implicitly rejects the administration's claim that determinations that there's a rebellion going on are unreviewable and appears skeptical of its reading of the statute. So this is, there's a follow up there.
- [29:53]
A
May I give it to you?
- [29:54]
B
Yeah. Yep.
- [29:55]
A
Because that order said come a very unusual order. Normally they would wrestle with it internally, but obviously the court is very divided over the this point. If there's not. There are three ways to he, that he could look to. One, forget about it, one rebellion. But the one they're focusing on is can you, can the executive do the job with the regular forces? And this is kind of a, you know, little engine that could sort of side story in the Supreme Court. But a single amicus by a single con law professor said, guess what? Regular forces encompassing the military and which we wouldn't have thought. And if that's right, obviously his effort is a non starter because he hasn't tried to use the military. The Supreme Court has taken this mighty seriously and they asked for briefs yesterday or Monday night. The briefs came in, predictably enough, Illinois and this kind of heroic little engine that could con law professor Marty Lederman, by the way, we've done a long interview with him that will publish, published tomorrow just about this. But said regular forces, that means military. Trump's out of luck. And they came in and said, well, come on, that doesn't really make sense. But as you say, the conservative position there is not doesn't make sense or not. It's what do they say? And we've talking about dictionaries and all the things that the conservatives have used to construe it. So now it comes up and this case could actually go against Trump on this construction of this, of part three. Do regular forces mean military? And just a final point here is if that's what they're doing, the Supreme Court just doing a normal judicial review of a statutory term to defeat a claim of emergency powers where he wants to say, you can't even think about it. I said it. You must defer. That would be big news in and of itself because the number one legal development I'm worried about and trying to watch like a hawk is they're green lighting some assertion of emergency powers with deference that would then let him go to town on the elections, do all kinds of mischief.
- [32:16]
B
Right.
- [32:16]
A
So that says the terror as a. Yeah, yeah, as a sort and the nerdy part of this, you know, commentator world, you know, as a, as a former Supreme Court clerk type, that's, that's what I'm so focused on. And this was really a hardening order for that reason could still go awry. Of course, they've, they've pulled the rug out twice from us just since then. But this is, I wrote then when it came out, this is the big one, the test for the Supreme Court. And maybe that's how they see it too.
- [32:49]
B
So let's, let's, let's go back to your Lincoln quote about public opinion because you know, that was the big development of the last week. And of course, you know, it's one of the cliches about the court that the justices, you know, sometimes follow the ballot box, they pay attention, they see what's going on. So it felt like the election last week was kind of a reality check because up until last week, it felt as if there were no checks, there were no balances. There was nothing that was stopping Donald Trump. He clearly thought he had the wind at his back, that all of the institutions of society were bending to his will. And then we have these, these off year election Democrats were expected to do well. I don't think anybody expected they were going to do that well. And you look at the numbers and it gets better. From the Democratic point of view, really scary. From the Republican point of view, the more you look at the demographic numbers, Abigail Spanberger wins in Virginia by a margin that has not been seen in recent history. New Jersey was supposed to be a toss up. Mikey Sheryl wins by powerful.
- [33:50]
A
The same amount.
- [33:51]
B
Yeah, yeah, the, which again, nobody really saw that coming. In California, you know, Gavin Newsom went all in on this redistricting referendum, which again is kind of questionable because you Know, the good government types could say, you know, should we do that? That thing passed overwhelmingly with more than 60% of the vote. More interesting to me, I think, is the breakdown that every demographic group has broken away from the gop. The GOP has been building sort of this giddy confidence that young voters, young male voters are moving our way, Hispanic voters are moving our way, working class, black voters are moving our way. Way. In every case, not only did they shift away from the Republicans, but there was a real hemorrhaging. And so the question is, what does Donald Trump do? And we were talking a little bit before about.
- [34:40]
A
And what did the Republicans do who have been enthralled at him? Right.
- [34:43]
B
Well, they're, well, they're still enthralled. They're still enthralled with it. Look, he's not going to back off on the ICE raids, right, because that's central. You know, Stephen Miller is going to continue to do that even though obviously those videos are killing them. He's flailing around on the affordability issue. I mean, did you see the fact that among things that are surprising, he had a contentious interview on Fox News. Seriously, folks, this really happened. Laura Ingram, Laura Ingraham, who pressured him on affordability. And he seemed clueless. He seemed to be in complete denial. He seemed to be doing that. I say the economy is great. Nobody can, you know, challenge you. He comes up with this idea for 50 year mortgages, which you know, is not even barely half baked. You saw that story. Guy comes in.
- [35:29]
A
Yes.
- [35:29]
B
Shows him a postcard with, you know, 30 year mortgage, 50 year mortgage. FDR did it. Trump can do it. Ten minutes later, Trump is endorsed. Get it? He has no idea what it means. So I wonder, I don't really, I think it's premature to use this phrase, but I'm watching some of the fallout from all of this, this and kind of wondering whether there's a little bit of lame duckism setting in, that there's a willingness to express skepticism about Trump even within his base. I'm not predicting, by the way, Republicans are going to show any independence or break with him. But there does seem to be a willingness to ask some questions that you might do with a lame duck that you wouldn't do if somebody had you by the throat. You know what I'm getting at here?
- [36:19]
A
I really think so, Charlie. And you're the, you're the expert here. But let me just say a few things first. I think you're right that it doesn't mean we'll see them Desert him in droves. But he still, even as things have left, he's never had great power in the general election. His power has been at the primary level and I think he retains that among Republicans is one, but two, I think there's reason to think that that whole, you know, this was Trump's victory in 2024, only the second time since 2000 Republicans have won the popular vote. It was on the backs of some of these surprise voters as you point out. And there's reason to think that whole cohort is now back in the D ledger. And I just want to add, you know, gubernatorial races, even Prop 50 in California you can always analyze as sui generis or talk about Mikey Sherrill, Pennsylvania Supreme Court and even more Georgia, the ultimate toss up purple. You know I just need 11,700 state. They at low level elections went more again as with Cheryl went stronger for Dems than we thought. So I think the overwhelming data suggest this wasn't something you can analyze in one offs but rather as overall move now it's still true. Of course this has the dynamic of a midterm and sort of a mid midterm and that tends to, to go to the party out of power. But yeah, I gotta agree, no good news for the the R's last Tuesday night.
- [38:04]
B
Well and also, you know, one of the cliches of politics is that, you know, all politics is local. I just don't think that's true anymore. I think all politics is national right now. I mean really all politics is Trump.
- [38:14]
A
Really? No, I think so.
- [38:16]
B
Yeah. Yeah, yeah, right, exactly. So I mean there might be the usual sort of muscle memory of saying well you need to understand the dynamics of you know, this state or that state. No, this was a pre referendum on Donald Trump. We're going to see the other obviously a much more consequential one a year from now. Now the other development and I had.
- [38:36]
A
One quick other point to add. I'm sorry but they also have from voters discontent with the very signature initiative that you say he will stay with not just the economy but immigration. They are against him. So I agree he must stay the course there. But that's, that's at best and it's going to get worse for him.
- [38:55]
B
Okay, no, no, okay, let me pick up. This is going to get worse because of course they're hiring, you know, thousands and thousands of new ICE agents. The evidence would suggest that they're not being trained, they're being recruited using lots of sort of anti immigration white nationalist memes.
- [39:11]
A
Totally.
- [39:11]
B
Who do you think is coming into these brute squads? It's going to be massively funded. It's going to be larger than the Marine Corps. So over the next 12 months, are you going to see more mass thuggery or less mass thuggery? And it's a pretty safe prediction that it's going to be more, it's going to be escalated. And if that's already pushing people away and again, what do they think was going to happen with Latino vote? I mean, I wrote about this the other day. If you are an Hispanic American, if you're in a US Citizen citizen, you have to live in fear of going to a ethnic themed event. You have to be in fear of leaving the house, walking down the street. If you are not carrying your papers, we are literally in. Even if you are paper right, you could be at the wrong place at the wrong time. You know, the, you know, a, an ICE agent could, you know, throw you to the ground, handcuff you, separate you from your kids, throw pepper balls, you know, into, into your car, all of it. Or somebody could would, you know, erroneously or maliciously accuse you of being illegal immigrant. So even Hispanics who were sympathetic to Trump's crackdown on the border are going, oh my God, this is out of hand. Because I'm guessing that there is literally no one who does not know someone in their family, in their community, in their church, in their employment who is not affected in some way. So that is going to get a lot worse. So here's the, one of the more surprising developments. And again, I approach this with caution because we live in an era of a lot of wish fulfillment on social media. But when I hear this from people like Dave Wasserman, I take it very seriously. It certainly looks as if there's a possibility that the Republican redistricting gamuts are going to be ineffective, number one, because Democrats have actually, actually done a pretty good job of evening out. But also a lot of those redistricting, the new lines were drawn with the assumption that the demographic patterns of 2024 would hold in Texas. If you draw more Hispanic districts, thinking that, well, you know what, we're winning these districts, let's have more of those. If in fact you see 20, 30 point shifts against you, that could backfire on them badly. So that changes, I think, the dynamic of the midterm in a pretty fundamental way.
- [41:36]
A
I totally agree. And again, you know, it's just we, it's certain we're gonna see. We've had such cowboy conduct, Charlie. We've had People, you know, put, you know, point guns at and say, you liberal, I, I can shoot you. That's, that's from ICE agents. And as you say, everyone knows someone. And that includes, remember how this was sold, including to the law abiding Hispanic community who, as you say, would be for policing our borders. But these were the murderers, the marauders, the eaters of pets in Springfield. And really they're just trying to round up anyone whose papers are flawed, including people who've been in this country productively, 30, 40 years and are known within their community, including to the citizens now and are not, I think the people whom Hispanic Americans will celebrate then that will be sure. And they'll also be more for certain of this excessive force stuff that has caused the judge in Chicago to enter an order. Now, because you're right, who's coming in are really, you know, untrained and, and folks who are kind of want a chance to kind of bang heads. It's, it's really a recipe for, you know, PR disaster. It's got to happen, happen.
- [42:54]
B
So are you referring to Judge Sarah Ellis? Yeah, the judges who slammed the government's use of tear gas, pepper balls and flashbangs on peaceful protesters, journalists and clergy. She called it outrageous and shocking to the conscience, issued a preliminary injunction banning those abusive practices when mandating that they have to wear body cameras. And she called out senior officials, including Greg Bovino, who is the guy, the coast playing guy who dresses up like a stormtrooper. I mean, again, you think he's in a Halloween costume, basically saying, you've been misleading the court, you've been lying to us. So courts, look, as you point out, you're seeing this trend more and more courts fed up with the administration's lies and squirreliness, refusing to credit the good faith of administration lawyers. So all of that is, is, is, is happening. And I don't think that it's going to get, I don't think it's going to get better. And so, and if Donald Trump, you know, continues to say, you know, affordability is nothing but a Democratic, you know, scam, it creates a really ugly dynamic for, for them. And I, and I, again, I'm not trying to, you know, engage in hopium here, but yeah, it's, we're just calling it straight.
- [44:11]
A
Yeah. Can I make one point as a former doj, because that little comment, it's really true. I mean, credibility built up over decades of DOJ lawyers knowing they have to go and give it straight has just been, it's so poignant and heartbreaking to me as a former DOJ type that they have completely squandered it all by getting up around the country and being either squirrely or sometimes just flat out lying. And you know, the DOJ has so, you know, become a kind of politicized agency. And the courts know it, at least some jury pools know it. And you know, on the one hand you'll see that pushback. On the other, man, oh man, our Department of Justice has been so hollowed out and ransomed act.
- [45:08]
B
So two things that I'm keeping an eye on. And again, I may be completely wrong, but I, I, I'm constantly trying to think that like, don't be the general who fights the last war. What is, you know, the effect. I mean, obviously I don't think we are prepared for AI the way AI is going to be distorting things in, in the, in the future. But I think that we're already seeing, you know, the, the viral videos, what they have done and how they are moving votes in a very, very big way. I don't, this is not in the same category, but in terms of the backlash against the cruelty and the overreach of the administration and particularly as it plays in the Hispanic community, the aggressiveness of the Catholic Church, I think is an undercovered story. You know, Pope Leo has made it absolutely clear as an American with real clarity because he speaks English that Chicago.
- [45:56]
A
Right. He's talking about his hometown down.
- [45:58]
B
Yeah. He wants the church to take a very aggressive stand, you know, in, you know, protecting, protecting of the migrants. They just elected the bishops, just elected a conservative archbishop to be the president of the association. Who, who however, has been very, very outspoken about the Trump administration. So you kind, I do kind of wonder because I think back and something historical analogies could be flawed. The rule that the church played during the civil rights movement in the 1960s was considerable. It is the Reverend Martin Luther King Jr. We ought to remember that, that you are going to see a much higher profile challenge to this administration from the Catholic Church and maybe from other Christian churches as well, which goes right to the heart of, you know, Trump and J.D. vance's claim that somehow they are the champions of Christophe. And when you have the Pope, the American Pope standing up and saying, J.D. you're full of shit, that's powerful. That is a pushback on that. And I'm gonna keep an eye on it. I'm not gonna make any predictions, but I think this could be one of the things that if we look back on like, wow, what happened to the Hispanic vote. What happened to the conservative Christian vote on some of these issues? You know, this may be one of the effects. This is a challenge that Donald Trump has not faced. In fact, few US Presidents have faced this kind of a challenge.
- [47:24]
A
It's so true. And it's been a continual kind of puzzle why he has at least evangelical Protestants so strongly with him, given he is a poster child for immorality. But the Catholic continues still very strong in this country. And so many things that people on the left are saying, they dismiss Ms. To the right as sheer politics or just, you know, whatever they what, however they disparage it, this the Pope speaks for to all people with more. With a moral authority. Right. And so this will be making and part in saying, but in part it's saying, guys, where did you forget your morality here? Why have you given him a pass? And obviously.
- [48:11]
B
Yeah, exactly.
- [48:12]
A
Perfect. Yeah.
- [48:13]
B
See this, this is what I think is the turnaround because I have a lot of, you know, former friends who will push back and say, look, look, we, you know, we despise Donald Trump of what he's doing, but we are pro life. And, you know, when it comes down to a binary choice and, and I do understand where they're coming from on all of that, that they prioritize that issue. But then you have the Pope and the Catholic hierarchy basically saying, we need to rethink what we mean by pro life. You cannot be pro life life if you are only against abortion, but you are in favor of these other policies that are brutal and cruel and that cost human life. And when that comes from the church itself saying, okay, the position we are taking is a pro life position, and we are taking it because we are pro life and don't come back to us and defend what Trump and Vance are doing on a pro life basis if you're not prepared. That, by the way, is a new. It feels like a ideological jiu jitsu that I'm going to be very interesting to see how that plays out. Harry Lippman, thank you so much for joining me and being so generous.
- [49:16]
A
Such a pleasure. Charlie, I feel like we. It's a graduate seminar when I'm with you. I really enjoy it. Look forward to the next one.
- [49:23]
B
And thank you all for listening to this episode to the Contrary podcast. I'm Charlie Sykes. Do you know why we do this? Do I need to tell you? You need to be reminded that we are not the crazy ones. Remember that.
- [49:47]
C
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B
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B
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