Is Trump Creating the Pretext for Another Coup?

Summary

Podcast Summary

Podcast: To The Contrary with Charlie Sykes
Episode: Is Trump Creating the Pretext for Another Coup?
Date: July 16, 2026
Host: Charlie Sykes
Guest: Former Congressman Adam Kinzinger

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Overview

This episode confronts mounting anxieties about the state of American democracy, centering on whether Donald Trump and his allies are preparing the groundwork for an electoral power grab—or even another coup—should the 2026 elections not go their way. Host Charlie Sykes and former Congressman Adam Kinzinger scrutinize recent political events, the alarming normalization of rule-bending rhetoric among Republicans, the controversial nomination of Todd Blanche for Attorney General, and the threats posed to American electoral integrity and democratic norms.

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Key Topics and Discussion Points

1. Lindsey Graham, Trump, and Relevance

Timestamps: 02:33–07:48

• Lindsey Graham’s Legacy:
  Kinzinger reflects on his friendship with Graham, emphasizing how Graham’s support for Trump has overshadowed his prior reputation as a "hawk" and independent leader.

  • “The overall tragedy of Lindsey is that he probably thought he would outlast Trump and then would have time to fix his legacy… it’s a reminder that you don’t necessarily have a tomorrow to fix what you may have messed up today.” – Adam Kinzinger (03:34)

• Selling Out for Relevance:
  Graham’s calculated embrace of Trump is critiqued; both Sykes and Kinzinger are skeptical that staying in Trump’s orbit translated into real policy wins or a positive legacy.

  • “He sold so much of his soul in order to be in the room, but what did he actually accomplish?” – Charlie Sykes (05:25)
  • “When Donald Trump did big, nasty things, Lindsey always came out and supported him.” – Adam Kinzinger (06:15)

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2. Trump’s Reactionary ICE Policy & Political Brutality

Timestamps: 07:48–13:33

• ICE and Traffic Stops:
  Trump countermanded ICE’s suspension of controversial traffic stops following killings of innocent people.

  • “The brutality is the point.” – Charlie Sykes (08:59)
  • Kinzinger argues Trump and his circle are in an information “bubble,” doubling down on policies just to antagonize perceived “enemies,” even if politically self-defeating.

• Political Decision-making:
  The hosts discuss how policy has become subjugated to “owning the libs,” regardless of real-world harm.

  • “[Trump] is all about doubling down, showing that he's fighting. And that's honestly what his side demands…It is all about does this piss off the left. And if it does, we're going to do it.” – Adam Kinzinger (09:54)

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3. The Todd Blanche Nomination and DOJ Takeover

Timestamps: 14:36–22:59

• Blanche Nomination’s Stakes:
  Trump’s push to make loyalist Todd Blanche Attorney General is cast as a move to consolidate a “campaign of retribution” and politicize the DOJ.

  • “Trump is asking the Senate to endorse all of his most egregious campaign of retribution and his inshitification of the Justice Department.” – Charlie Sykes (15:16)
  • Kinzinger: Blanche is a Trump loyalist with a problematic history (Epstein investigation, Ghislaine Maxwell, “slush fund” IRS deal).

• Senate Republicans on the Spot:
  The discussion points to a “super bowl” moment for Senators like Tillis, Cassidy, Collins, and Sullivan: will they show real courage or enable Trump yet again?

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4. Election Security, Pretext for a Coup, and “Unknown Unknowns”

Timestamps: 22:59–33:18

• Pretext for Overturning Elections:
  The worry is Blanche, as AG, will be the “tip of the spear” for Trump’s attempts to contest or overturn election results under the pretense of foreign interference or fraud.

  • “Their whole point here is going to be to create enough doubt in the election system that close races can be challenged…Instead of Barr…the new AG will say, ‘Yes sir, whatever you want to do.’” – Adam Kinzinger (21:39)

• Suppression and Congressional Maneuvering:
  Kinzinger outlines both “extreme” and incremental suppression tactics: armed officers at minority polling stations, refusing to seat legitimately-elected Democrats, exploiting ambiguity about electoral rules.

  • “It is yet another election in a decade where you’ve convinced a significant amount of the country their vote doesn’t count or has been stolen.” – Adam Kinzinger (24:37)

• Normalization of the Unthinkable:
  Both speakers reflect on the “Overton window” shift—what once sounded like lunacy around coups, election denial, or refusing to seat Democrats is now plausible.

  • “It’s naive not to think that Donald Trump, who’s already tried one coup, will try some other batshit crazy thing.” – Charlie Sykes (29:10)

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5. Undermining Democratic Norms: The Rulebook Analogy

Timestamps: 33:18–35:05

• Baseball vs. Democracy:
  Kinzinger uses a baseball analogy to explain why adhering to agreed-upon rules is essential to the survival of democracy, warning that bending or ignoring those rules destroys the game for everyone.
  • “The second we start breaking those rules and creating that lack of faith in the basic gameplay, you can never get the game of...democracy back.” – Adam Kinzinger (34:42)

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6. The Supreme Court, Congressional Responsibility, and the Gerontocracy

Timestamps: 35:05–41:54

• Supreme Court Accountability:
  Discussion on the Court seeking security resources while resisting Congressional oversight on ethics or term limits.

  • “There has to be real Supreme Court reform. For me, I lean towards an ethics code, towards term limits…” – Adam Kinzinger (38:03)

• Congressional Transparency:
  Critique of lawmakers (Mitch McConnell, Tom Keene) disappearing for medical or other reasons with no disclosure or accountability to constituents.

  • “You don’t get to…declare that you don’t have to be accountable to the 700,000 people you represent because you have a medical issue.” – Adam Kinzinger (39:27)

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7. Iran War: Policy Whiplash and Risks

Timestamps: 43:26–50:47

• Trump’s Handling of the Iran Conflict:
  Kinzinger—normally hawkish on Iran—details why this war is different: lack of preparation, contradictory public stances by Trump, and the dangerous unpredictability of war in the Middle East.

  • “Trump should have laid off of, you know, public statements because he was negotiating with himself in public… Any time you relieve pressure on them, you’re resetting the clock in terms of that pain.” – Adam Kinzinger (44:36)

• Era of Drones and Asymmetric Threats:
  Kinzinger warns this will likely be the last war of its kind, given drone technology and the lessons from Ukraine, and questions U.S. preparedness for new, asymmetric warfare.

  • “The future of war is not million dollar missiles and stealth fighter jets...It is who can produce the most drones the fastest.” – Adam Kinzinger (48:46)

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8. The Senate Test: Blanche Confirmation and the Future of Institutional Courage

Timestamps: 50:47–52:07

• The Ultimate Test:
  Sykes frames the coming Senate vote on Todd Blanche as a defining test of whether the Senate is capable of acting as a constitutional check, or if institutional rot is total.
  • “This is the big one. This kind of the super bowl of—is the Senate still a deliberative body that takes its responsibilities of advice and consent seriously or not?” – Charlie Sykes (51:38)

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Notable Quotes

• “Even death could not make Trump curious about another human being. A question about Graham's final hours became an accusation about ballots. A tribute to a loyal friend became another airing of grievances.”
  — Charlie Sykes (02:41)

• “As long as Donald Trump gives them [his base] something that they can say, they can hold onto, that's all they need. As ridiculous as it is, that's what I worry about.”
  — Adam Kinzinger (24:38)

• “This is about Donald Trump's obsession with relitigating the Russia hoax, his defeat in 2020. But the real danger is undermining Americans' confidence in future elections.”
  — Charlie Sykes (32:40)

• “If you're in government and you put out a concerned tweet, you have to then vote in accordance with that concerned tweet.”
  — Adam Kinzinger (33:18)

• “We will keep doing this as long as we all need to keep reminding ourselves that we are not the crazy ones.”
  — Charlie Sykes (52:31)

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Conclusion

Sykes and Kinzinger deliver a stark, unvarnished warning: The anti-democratic impulses unleashed since 2020 are not abating—they are systematizing. From Congress’s faltering courage to the normalization of extreme legal and electoral maneuvers, listeners are urged not to question their sanity, but rather to recognize how much remains at stake in the coming months, especially as the Trump movement lays narrative—and possibly legal—pretexts for a new wave of election subversion.

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For Further Listening

• Deep dives into the Senate’s response to Trump’s nominees
• Analysis of the DOJ’s transformation under political pressure
• Ongoing coverage of election integrity challenges

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(End of summary)

Transcript

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[Charlie Sykes]

And joining us on the podcast today, our good friend, former Congressman Adam Kinzinger. Good to have you back, Adam.

[Adam Kinzinger]

Good to be with you. Thanks.

[Charlie Sykes]

Let me just start with this because you wrote a really interesting piece about Lindsey Graham because you knew him, you guys were friends and, and you made the point why we should never ask Donald Trump to deliver your eulogy. Pointing out that. Hold on here. Pointing out that, you know, when he went on the air, Donald Trump managed to basically make it all about himself. Even death could not make Trump curious about Another human being. A question about Graham's final hours became an accusation about ballots. A tribute to a loyal friend became another airing of grievances. So let's just talk a little bit about Lindsey Graham, because you knew him before and you knew him after, and you were, I thought, very thoughtful and charitable in your reaction to his sudden death.

[Adam Kinzinger]

Yeah, you know, look, I think the overall tragedy of Lindsey is that he probably thought he would outlast Trump and then would have time to fix his legacy. And, I mean, you know, had he outlasted Trump, he probably could have. Right. And, you know, it's a reminder, and it's something that, I guess, kind of maybe 24 hours after his death, it hit me, which it's a reminder that you don't necessarily have a tomorrow to fix, you know, what you may have messed up today. And so I have, like, such split feelings about him because I was friends with him prior to Donald Trump. I traveled with him. You know, he and I were kind of the hawks in Congress, if you will. And we, you know, we went to a lot of places, Syrian refugee camps with him, places like Egypt. And. And when Donald Trump came along, I mean, actually, it's interesting. Trump gets elected. Lindsey Graham still comes to my district and does a fundraiser in Rockford, Illinois, where he's, you know, talking about how stupid Donald Trump is. And then it, like, changed on a dime. And so the morning is like. And I was honest about it, which is, look, I haven't talked to Lindsey in 10 years. He and I have no desire to talk to each other. But I look, and I'm going to choose to remember the Lindsey that, you know, I remembered before Trump. But it is such a tragic thing. He sold out everything that he was and believed for some Donald Trump accolades to stay in power, to stay in the conversation. And yet Donald Trump goes and gives his eulogy, sort of, you know, in his. In his speaking, and it is all about Donald Trump. You know, he talks about Lindsey ran against me, Lindsey said some mean things about me. Lindsey was kind of a war hawk. You know, you just don't win with Trump. I mean, and maybe that's a lesson to somebody. Probably not, but, you know, hopefully it is.

[Charlie Sykes]

Well, this goes back to the question of relevance. You know, there have been a lot of, you know, analyses, you know, and some of them are rather friendly to him, saying that, well, he just made the calculation that he needed to stay relevant, he needed to stay in the room. And I actually had a podcast yesterday with somebody said, well, you know, you could make the case that, you know, at least he was there pushing his agenda, unlike, say, Liz Cheney and Adam Kinzinger. Now, I said that I thought that was bullshit. But is that question of relevance? That's what people tell themselves. Right? But I wonder how relevant, in the end, Lindsey Graham was. He sold so much of his soul in order to be in the room, but what did he actually accomplish? The abandonment of Ukraine, continued. The alienation of our allies, you know, continued. So how relevant was he in the end?

[Adam Kinzinger]

Yeah, I mean, that's a good question, because I don't, you know, look. I guess I could look and say maybe there were some policies behind the scene that Trump wanted to put in that, you know, Lindsey kind of talked him out of. And I hope so. And I hope for Lindsey's sake that's the case. But do you remember when. When. When Zelensky was in the Oval Office and Trump, you know, chewed him out? You don't have the card. Lindsay came out and supported Donald Trump, saying that Lindsey was also the one that said, yeah, you're right. NATO needs to pay up. NATO's becoming useless if they're not gonna help us in Ukraine. And so we have this. Like, when we look back at Lindsey Graham under Donald Trump, there's this kind of revisionist history that took a whole day to create, which is like he was there as a bulwark against what Donald Trump was doing. The truth is, when Donald Trump did big, nasty things, Lindsey always came out and supported him. So, yeah, I mean, I would have much rather had Lindsey in the room than say, you know, Tucker Carlson. Okay, but I mean, if the bottom line is just, can you go in there and instead of being a real, you know, discipline disciple of Mao, you're a pretend disciple of Mao, does that make you any less of a Communist? You know, I don't know, but I. I know this. I know that this is not probably how Lindsey Graham wanted to be remembered. And I know that had he known that a couple days ago was the actual day of his death, he probably would have done things differently.

[Charlie Sykes]

No, I thought your point about the reminder of mortality. We all think we have more time. We all think we'll be able to fix something at some other time, but we don't know. We're not actually promised tomorrow. I thought that was a really, really good point. Well, I want to talk about Todd Blanche in a moment, but let's talk about what Donald Trump did yesterday. Countermanding. Countermanding the order from ice. And first of all, it was kind of surprising that ICE in the first place said, okay, maybe we ought to suspend these traffic stops after, you know, all of the killings. We had another killing in Houston, wrong man. Killing in Maine, wrong man. And so ICE said maybe we shouldn't be chasing cars, shooting into cars, which seemed actually reasonable for a moment. And it made Susan Collins look like she was actually doing something. Donald Trump comes out Wednesday morning and he countermands and says, no, we absolutely need to do this. You know your thoughts about that? I mean, what I wrote in my newsletter was, you know, just a reminder that the brutality is the point. But I almost feel naive to say I was kind of surprised that he took that step. What did you think?

[Adam Kinzinger]

I guess in a way I was surprised, but I'm also not surprised because Donald Trump instead of, you know, in the first term, he would be on Twitter and he would kind of see all sides of an argument and that influenced him. He lives on Truth Social now and on Truth Social, I mean, I don't look at it, but I assume they were all on there being upset because anytime you back away, anytime you, you know, do something reasonable, it's seen as woke and liberal. And so yeah, it's not surprising at all. And this is the thing is like, you know, how stupid does Susan Collins have to feel? I mean, I don't know if she's capable of feeling stupid, but she should because she acted like she was the biggest proponent of stopping these and then all of a sudden she made this happen and now it's not happening. I mean, look, part of the problem with what happened in the last couple days is they were not white right when it was Alex Preddy or Renee Good when they were white citizens. For some reason it strikes America differently than if they are darker color and even if they're here legally, not native born citizens. But I, I, I think this is just, it's a disgusting situation and, and Trump is all about doubling down, showing that he's fighting. And that's honestly Charlie what his side demands, I've come to believe. And it's really a sad state of affairs that like this is no more about what is good policy, what is the right thing to do. It is all about does this piss off the left. And if it does, we're going to do it. And of course traffic stops do actually it pisses off all of us because it ends up, you end up shooting a lot of people that are all the wrong targets evidently. And most of the cases here completely legally and doing it the right way.

[Charlie Sykes]

What's extraordinary about this is that this is clearly a political loser for Donald Trump, not just for Susan Collins. But, you know, once again, you and I have talked about this. You know, had they really gone after the worst of the worst, you know, rapists and murderers, I don't think it would be controversial very clearly. In the last two shooting cases, you have a man who'd been here for 35 years, a good family man, was, you know, you know, on his way to work, shot and killed by ICE agents. The shooting in Maine, same thing. Not the right guy. Did not appear to have any criminal record whatsoever. So this is the kind of thing that if you want to go into the midterms and mitigate a negative, the suspension of traffic stops seemed like a pretty prudent thing to do. But Trump is doubling down on this. And I think. I think your point is that he's. That he's in a bubble, you know, completely in a bubble by. By him. I want to talk to you about the US Deal with Iran and the coverage of that story. Look, obviously everyone, including me, has lots of opinions about this deal, but if you also want to get down to the facts of the story rather than getting lost in the hype of the headlines, there's an app and a website that can help you do that. It's called Ground News, and they have great tools to help you avoid getting caught in a bias bubble and avoid blind spots. For each story, they'll show you how the left, right, and the center covered it. The Nobel Peace center even called Ground News an excellent way to stay informed, avoid echo chambers, and expand your worldview. Take, for example, this story, a judge denied Joe Biden's bid to block release of transcripts linked to a special counsel inquiry. On the left, you'll see headlines like, US Judge Rejects Joe Biden's lawsuit Asking to withhold memoir recordings. And on the right, you'll see headlines like what is the former President trying to hide? But then you can go to each source and see who's funding them and their factuality rating that shows how subjective or objective the source is. Ground News also has a blind spot feed that shows stories disproportionately covered by either side of the media. So if you want access to stories you may otherwise never see and the necessary context to make up your own mind, visit groundnews.com tc to get 40% off their unlimited access. That's groundnews.com tc so they know that I sent you. I believe that if you like this podcast and what we do here. You'll like their mission. Visit groundnews.com tc today

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[Charlie Sykes]

So, okay, so speaking of that, I am really struck by the fact that he's pushing ahead with Todd Blanche at this particular moment. You know, he's always said, well, where is my Roy Cohn? Where's my fighter? Where is my legal thug? And so here you have Todd Blanche going in front of the Senate at the moment when he's still trailing the clouds of the controversy about the slush fund deal, the IRS deal. A judge last week just hammered the Department of Justice. They've had one issue after other, the Epstein coverup. So just give me your thoughts on Todd Blanche going in front of the Senate and how Senate Republicans are going to react to him. What do you think is going to happen? Without necessarily. I'm not trying to hold your feet to the fire on a prediction, but he's really isn't Trump. Ask. Trump is asking the Senate to endorse all of his most egregious campaign of retribution and his inshitification of the Justice Department. And it's right there. And it's an up or down vote for the Senate, isn't.

[Adam Kinzinger]

Is. And I mean, look, it's. So first off, the question of why would he actually follow through on Todd Blanche right now? I think this kind of builds into what we were talking about, which is, look, Donald Trump is now surrounded by nobody that gives him advice. Right. The only advice he gets is, yes, that is a great idea. So he can sit around and say, maybe I'm yeah, you know what? Todd Blanche has worked hard for me. He's going after all my enemies. I'm gonna, I'm gonna nominate him.

[Charlie Sykes]

Him.

[Adam Kinzinger]

And so he can mention that to people around him in the Oval Office. And nobody is going to say, well, Mr. President, let's. I don't know if that's the best idea because let's keep in mind Todd Blanche, you know, went and visited Ghislaine Maxwell and gave her a really cush thanks. He was overseeing the Epstein files. You know, let's talk about the 8647 Seashell indictment and how ridiculous that is. Let's talk about the other failed indictment going on. Maybe it's better if you bring somebody else in with a friend. But nobody can do that with Donald Trump. They could have the first term and they can't now. So in his mind, he's sitting around going, okay, this makes sense. I'm rewarding somebody. So now what are the Republicans doing? This is going to be the big question because you have all these new heroic Republicans, Charlie, that just found their heroism between, you know, Thom Tillis, Bill Cassidy, those are two right there. Susan Collins, who's up for reelection, you know, Dan Sullivan, who's got a tight reelection in Alaska, they have a opportunity to do the craziest thing right here, which is to actually, you know, stand up to Donald Trump, and that'll be the question. And I think the Democrats better have a good amount of questions together to coordinate to show just how bad Todd Blanche really is. So this is going to be a big question. And honestly, I'm a little worried, and I don't even know if worried's the case. It's kind of a fait accompli that, you know, people like Collins and Tillis just find their way to. Yes. And they promised me and I had a conversation, all this kind of stuff.

[Charlie Sykes]

Well, you know, I mean, there's two big issues. I mean, I mean, three big issues. Number one, the one you raised about whether or not they are going to follow through on their newfound courage. You know, there is the argument that says that the President deserves to have his own pick for attorney general. Right. I mean, you can concede that John F. Kennedy appointed his brother Robert F. Kennedy to be Attorney general. And then of course, there is the other argument, which is, look, if it's not Blanche, it's going to be somebody even worse, right? Isn't that the logic? Look, you could get Matt Gaetz, you could get that guy Whitlock back, you could get Jeanine Pirro. So you might as well swallow hard, eat the shit sandwich of Todd Blanche, because Trump's gonna put somebody awful in.

[Adam Kinzinger]

Yeah, I mean, look, you, you can I don't know if it gets much worse than Todd Blanche. And I mean, looking back on who he is, I mean, sure, you know, if you look at, I mean, if on paper you could say, look, he used to be a Democrat, he used to, whatever, great. But this is the guy that ran the Epstein investigation. This is the guy that went, had a private conversation with Ghislaine Maxwell, then put her in a nice Kush facility. This is the guy that has made it clear that he wants to turn the DOJ into Donald Trump's own personal prosecution service. And look, I'd almost rather put Matt Gaetz in there because at least then we know what this is and we're not pretending like the Department of Justice is something other than Donald Trump's own personal, you know, attack dog. That's what it's become.

[Charlie Sykes]

No, it is. And of course, the New York Times had that big deep dive earlier this week where they said Blanche's cooperation in Trump's retribution campaign, both as Deputy Attorney General and acting Attorney General, since the ouster in April of his predecessor, Pam Bondi, is his defining characteristic. It is that. And they said the multifaceted portrait of Mr. Blanche that emerges from a 352 page report by American Oversight is of a Trump loyalist who is committed to executing the president's agenda and including, you know, apparently letting Donald Trump write some of these legal, legal filings, which are insults to the judges, ignoring court orders and indicting James Comey for the seashells. And so, you know, if you're a senator, if you're Thom Tillis or you're Susan Collins, and you vote to confirm him, you're voting to endorse all of that, you own all of that. Also, Todd Blanche is going to play a considerable role in whatever happens to the elections. Right. Donald Trump's interference with the elections. He's bought into the big lie. So, you know, just let's talk about that. I mean, you have an attorney general who has his fingerprints all over the pardon of the January 6th rioters and has been willing to cast out on past elections and perhaps future elections. So, again, you know, that's what those senators are going to have to decide whether they want to swallow, right?

[Adam Kinzinger]

Yeah, yeah. And, and also, keep in mind, by the way, and I'll get to the election, but I think one of the things that I don't think he mentioned that I forgot to, is this whole deal with the $1.7 billion slush fund was Todd Blanche started out as Donald Trump's kind of lawyer against the Department of Justice or against the IRS for releasing his tax return and is on the other side of making a deal. And just yesterday or the day before, a judge excoriated the Department of Justice and the treasury or IRS or whatever for basically not being proper litigants, basically having co having colluded behind the scenes and, and went so far as to recommend disbanding for some of these, some of these players. But the election is a big deal. And, you know, as of the time we're talking, we don't exactly know what Donald Trump is going to say about this supposed, you know, intelligence found about a stolen election. The reality is we know every election that, you know, foreign governments try to influence them, and that's why we have to have defenses against them. But their whole point here is going to be to create enough doubt in the election system that close races can be challenged. And this time, instead of Barr, you know, saying to Donald Trump, no, we're not going to go seize voting machines. No, the election was fine. You're going to have Todd Blanche say, yes, sir, whatever you want to do. And they will push the limit because here's the other thing. Who's to stop them? So if the Department of Justice or the FBI or whatever goes and seizes voting machines, even if that is totally illegal, there is no police force that can come and enforce that law against the FBI. They are the enforcers, and that's the big concern. So I've gotten increasingly concerned, and I'm not losing sleep on this yet, but I've gotten increasingly concerned about what they're going to do in November. Initially, I thought, you know, as long as we kick the Republicans butts, they don't have many options. They're showing certainly an absolute unwillingness to allow this to go through as a election normally should, I think.

[Charlie Sykes]

So tell me what you're worried about. What could they possibly do? What are they, you know, going. The most extreme step would be to send, you know, armed troops into seized ballot boxes. But there's a lot of other things incrementally they can do. So what's on your agenda for I

[Adam Kinzinger]

think, you know, and what did they say back in Iraq? It was Rumsfeld. It's the unknown unknown. So, so for me, you know, when it's the idea of, like, okay, oh, what are they doing here? That's not something I thought about. That's what concerns me because the things I see that I think concern me can easily be pushed back on. So putting, you know, National Guard or federal agents near ballot boxes in minority districts, what does that do? Well, you look at, let's say there's a race In Georgia that's 50, 50. All of a sudden, you put federal agents in a minority area, may suppress minority turnout just enough to move that election, that's a concern. But again, if you're like Peter Magyar in Hungary, if it's a blowout against Viktor Orban, there's really not much they can do around the edges. It's the unknown unknowns I'm worried about. So when they say Donald Trump is going to talk about foreign interference in the election and there's discussion about maybe they've cut a deal with Maduro to say that he and Chavez, you know, broke into the ballot boxes or whatever. And here's the thing, Charlie. 70% of America won't believe any of that. But that doesn't matter. The only audience Donald Trump has is maga. And as long as you have Maga and they don't even actually believe it, by the way, it's just a tribal tattoo.

[Charlie Sykes]

It's a pretext.

[Adam Kinzinger]

As long as Donald Trump. That's it. As long as Donald Trump gives them something that they can say they can hold on to, that's all they need. As ridiculous as it is, that's what I worry about. And I worry that this is yet another election. So I don't necessarily foresee that there's going to be a day in November where everything explodes. But it is yet another election in a decade where you've convinced a significant amount of the country their vote doesn't count or has been stolen. And I'm telling you, democracies cannot stole survive that because we are built on the idea of every person who is eligible to vote gets to vote. You win or lose, you move on with your life. And this is very dangerous.

[Charlie Sykes]

It is very dangerous. And I think that we're also seeing is sort of the ends justify the means that they're preparing the base for, thinking that the Democrats are so corrupt, they hate America, they hate God, they are all communist, and therefore whatever it takes to stop them from taking power. So there's a lot of things that could be done. In fact, I mean, I share your concern. I mean, I think that we ought to look at this as a possibility of another rather slow motion coup, you know, as possible. Is it possible that Mike Johnson will refuse to seat Democratic, you know, legitimately elected Democrats? I mean, we've seen him play games before with, you know, delaying the swearing in. I mean, could it be election denial afterwards that would result in Congress refusing to seat Democrats who won the election. I mean, is that possible? I mean, that seems very extreme. But then you and I have lived through the last 10 years where things that seemed unthinkable and extreme suddenly happen, become mainstream thought among Republicans.

[Adam Kinzinger]

Yeah, I think it's completely possible because what happens is. So if you put, you know, Mike Johnson on CIA Truth Juice and said, would you ever do this? And he would say no and probably would pass the lie detector test. But now, but the reality is what we saw like on January 6th is the public pressure in, you know, in the Fox News in the true social ecosphere gets so tough. Some guy comes up with some dumb ass idea that we could do this and then that growth, right? And then these conservative politicians, quote, unquote conservative. There are no conservatives left anymore, Charlie. I want to be very clear when I say that. But these so called conservative politicians start running with it and it becomes a religious thing. Okay? Now you have to not seat the next Congress. So what I don't know is because there is a date in which the current Congress is dissolved by the Constitution and then you have this kind of interim period where there's, you know, like some of the staff take over the House in order to run elections for Speaker. What I don't know is what can a prior Congress do to either extend their current kind of congressional mandate to get through that situation. What happens if there are elections that are still out in the open? And yeah, that's a big concern of mine. And this is again my message to my Democratic friends. This is why winning the middle and winning in a big way is so important. Because if, if, you know, if we're more than 10 or 20 seats in the majority, they can't, there's probably not much of a way to just simply refuse to seat that many. If it's four. Yeah, if it's four seats where there's a, you know, and this happens every election cycle, one or 200 vote difference, that absolutely can do that.

[Charlie Sykes]

Well, as an indication of how extreme the ideas are floating out there. And by the way, I'm flashing back to, and I'm sure you are too, to, you know, post 20. I remember the first time I heard, I think it was like Paul Gosar was raising the issue of, you know, using January 6th to not seat, I mean, to not certify the election. I thought, you know, that's just crazy. We're at, you know, that Mike Pence might actually not count those votes and like we're all looking at each other and rolling our eyes and, you know, what could go wrong? And then finding out that, wait, no, seriously, those threats, you know, are, were very, very real. And so you're starting to see some of these. Weir idea. So, for example, President and his misfit toys are addressing the nation Thursday night. We don't know what he's going to say. There were initial reports that were unconfirmed that one of the things he was going to say was that the two Democratic senators from Georgia, John Ossoff and Raphael Warnock, were illegitimate because there was fraud in the Georgia election. You tweeted that? I tweeted it out as well. I bleeded it out with it. This is insane. This is absolutely crazy. But it's like if those ideas are floating in the ecosystem again, a reminder, it's naive not to think that Donald Trump, who's already tried one coup, will try some other batshit crazy thing, including basically saying that elections that took place years ago are illegitimate. Now, I don't think that's necessarily going to happen, but what do you expect Donald Trump to do Thursday night when he's got Bill Pulte, who is still Director of National Intelligence despite no qualifications, the Director of the CIA and who's the third guy? I mean, just one of his chosen. What do you expect him to say?

[Adam Kinzinger]

He's from your neck of the woods, too, Charlie. So we blame you. The. Listen, I think here's what's going to happen is, I mean, let me give you a couple scenarios. So I think the most likely is it is kind of recycled intelligence, kind of packaged as new intelligence. So do you remember, like, when they.

[Charlie Sykes]

And cherry. And cherry picked.

[Adam Kinzinger]

Yeah, and cherry picked. You remember when the initial Epstein files came out and they had all those dumbass influencers in D.C. and it was basically the same stuff that had already been released. So what I think is most likely is they come out and say, look, we know, and here's proof, and it's probably real, that Venezuela or Russia or China or all of them were trying to interfere in the, the 2020 election. Well, we knew that. I mean, actually, that's exactly what, you know, the, the, the Homeland Security, you know, cyber defense people were saying is, like, this is going to be an unprecedented attack on our democracy, although we were able to defend against it. And so I think the most likely is they come out and say, look, here's unclassified intelligence that says foreign interference in our 2020 election was attempted. And the point is, we all know that but they can use that as fresh new evidence for the right to say this is stolen. Now, what I worry about on the extreme is that they have, look, they've cut a deal with Maduro and said, if you admit this, yeah, if you admit this, then, you know, we'll let you go home or we'll give you a lighter sentence. And then that's the kind of thing I worry about on that end.

[Charlie Sykes]

Well, yeah, that would be one of the worst case scenarios. But this is really important point that I think you just made is, is first of all, the, the attempted foreign interference is a matter of public record. Those things have already been declassified. There have been reports, there have been bipartisan reports documenting those attempts. And yet Trump and his crew will probably try to present some of that in a cherry picked fashion as if it is new, as if it is a blockbuster. And of course, in that echo chamber, you're going to see it, you know, amplified. The Scott Jennings of the world will go along and try to give it some sort of credibility. But again and again, this may not need to be said, but everything does need to be said at some point. This is about Donald Trump's obsession with relitigating the Russia hoax of 2016, his defeat in 2020. But the real danger is undermining Americans confidence in future elections. Right. He's laying the groundwork for saying this was bogus, this was corrupt, this was rigged, which may give him the pretext since we're talking about worst case scenarios, declaring a national emergency, which would give him vast powers over the electoral system. None of that is beyond his capability, which again, doubling back to where we're at with Todd Blanche. If senators are worried about this sort of thing, they need to take that into consideration when they vote up or down on Todd Blanche, don't they? Because he will be the tip of the spear in any of this election interference, won't he?

[Adam Kinzinger]

Yeah. There needs to be no more concerned tweets from people. I think if you're in government and you put out a concerned tweet, you have to then vote in accordance with that concerned tweet. I think we should now ban politicians putting out concern tweets and then voting against that. So here's the broader point. Let me use an example. So I assume you're a Brewers fan. I like the Milwaukee Brewers. I lived in Milwaukee. Milwaukee. And you know, they gave us free tickets as veterans and, and, but I'm a bigger Cubs fan. So let's do a Brewers Cubs game. Let's say we're playing at Miller park, and the Cubs are there playing the Brewers. Cubs get up to bat first. They swing, they go to first, they make. The guy makes it to second. Three outs, it's over, no score. Right now, the brewers get up, take swing, and instead of running to first, the leadoff hitter runs to third and then runs home. And the guy in the outfield puts, you know, working the board puts the one up. Okay, now, what would happen? Well, obviously, the Cubs manager would come out and scream and say he didn't go to first and second and third. He just went to third and home. And the umpire can go, well, look, we're here in Milwaukee. They have a rule that says their team gets to go to third and home. And I can't go up there and physically remove that one from the scoreboard. No one. What happens if that happens, Charlie? The game of baseball breaks down. Because the only thing you need for the game of baseball to work is that you have to agree on the rules. Everything else, two teams can hate each other, literally want to go to fisticuffs. But if you agree on the rules, that's the situation with democracy. The second we start breaking those rules and creating that lack of faith in the basic gameplay, you can never get the game of. Of baseball or the game of democracy back.

[Charlie Sykes]

Unfortunately, in your scenario, you had the brewers cheating, but we'll just. I'm gonna let that slide for a moment. Okay. So speaking of the rules and the umpires we count on in our system, or I think the founding Fathers, you know, counted on Congress being a check on all of this. We've seen how that's worked out. And the Supreme Court. You had a very provocative piece out yesterday about the Supreme Court making a point that had not occurred to me. You had just. Justices of the Supreme Court testify in front of Congress about the threats they were facing, which are very, very real. It's a very dangerous moment to be a federal judge or to be a Supreme Court justice. So, I mean, and some of the stories were quite compelling. But you made the point that there was a little bit of hypocrisy there, because every once in a while, the justices will treat Congress as if it is a co. Equal branch of government. And, you know, when they don't need their help, they basically, what, ignore it. Give me your. What was. What was your case about? The hypocrisy of the justices on Capitol Hill yesterday?

[Adam Kinzinger]

Yeah, it's. The irony of it is like, you know, you had Amy Coney Barrett, and I think it Was Kagan in front of Congress talking about their threats they've gotten? And look, I want to be very clear. Congress should give the Supreme Court whatever money they need to defend themselves. I mean, it's ridiculous. Ridiculous that violence and threats is a guy that's lived it, but Supreme Court justices, even more so, it's ridiculous they should give it to him. But it's like they're there kind of hat in hand, humbly asking the Congress for its blessing in money. But yet when they would be asked about ethics, what are you guys going to do? Guys have ethics rules. Should you put in place a limit to the amount of money you can make in a state speech or how big of a trip you can accept from a donor? All of a sudden now Congress is now getting all up in the Supreme Court's business and they push back and it's like, look, Congress has an important role. The Court has an extremely important role. But Congress is going to fund all these branches, but also has a right to say, listen, we're concerned because Justice Thomas has taken a trip worth $100,000 every year with a big oil magnate in Dallas. That's kind of a problem given that there's oil issues that come in front of Thomas. And that's the irony of it is all of a sudden Congress is overstepping. You know, we need their help with security, but they're overstepping when it comes to ethics. And I'll just say one more thing which is, you know, there has to be real Supreme Court reform. And I think I, you know, for me, I lean towards an ethics code, towards term limits. I don't think there's anything anti constitutional about term limits. I do worry about expanding the court because then everybody expands the court and you end up with another legislative branch. But something's got to be done. I think.

[Charlie Sykes]

No, I think something does have to be. I tend to agree with you. I think the ethics code is de minimis. I mean, that's, that should be like the, the, you know, easiest thing. Term limits, I think makes increasing sense, especially as we come to grips with the gerontocracy. The fact that, you know, that we have, you know, people who are serving into their 80 and by the way. Okay, so speaking of the gerontocracy, any thoughts on Mitch McConnell? And I guess I'm going to repeat what I've said before. Look, if we're going to have a gerontocracy, the minimum we ought to have is some transparency here. I mean, it is very weird that Right now, the balance of power in the United States Senate may be determined by. Is the guy alive? Is he Campos Mentis? Can he actually talk? And are we ever gonna know this? And it feels like we have been in this cycle for now, two presidencies, Supreme Court, you know, cycles, as well as the U.S. senate. So thoughts on Mitch McConnell?

[Adam Kinzinger]

Yeah. And nothing against my baby boomer friends, but, like, maybe it's time, right? Maybe it's time to pass it on. I'm a Gen X Xer, and there have never, there's never been a Gen X president, by the way, which is insane, because now the millennials are about to become president. So, anyway, yeah, I, I, I think it's crazy, like Mitch McConnell, here's the thing, and I want to bring in the case of Tom Keene. The mysterious case of Tom Keene in New Jersey.

[Charlie Sykes]

Disappears from New Jersey.

[Adam Kinzinger]

Yeah, disappears for four months. Nobody knows where he is, office doesn't say anything. Leadership doesn't say anything. He comes out and says he was confronting depression. Now, listen, I want to be very clear. I believe depression is a real medical problem, and I'm glad he got help. But here's the thing. You don't get to, as a U.S. congressman, you know, declare that you don't have to be accountable to the 700,000 people you represent because you have a medical issue. You know, same with if you're battling alcoholism and end up, you know, in rehab. Everybody deserves to know that. Now, if you work at IBM, maybe that can be private information, but when you represent 700,000 people.

[Charlie Sykes]

Yes.

[Adam Kinzinger]

By you staying quiet and not saying anything, you're in essence saying, nobody else in my district, the 699,000 other people, do not have the ability to do what I do. I'm special. Allow me to get better so then I can come back and be special for you. It's BS and, and listen, Charlie, I was scared to deploy for a month with the military because I'm like, I don't want to be out of, you know, the ability to vote for my district for a month. Now you have people just going away and not saying anything. It's ridiculous.

[Charlie Sykes]

Well, I was trying, I was actually trying to look up just a second ago, trying to look up that the other congresswoman, an older woman who had disappeared, disappeared in the last cycle and just vanished, and nobody noticed she was gone until basically she turned up at a treatment center for Alzheimer's and was like, well, wait, is there some code of silence that nobody would say that? Yeah, this congresswoman has just completely ghosted us. How often is this happening?

[Adam Kinzinger]

Look, there was a US senator back in the 40s, I think, that basically didn't show up in for four years. And the react. Look, the reality is constitutionally there's no requirement to show up, but of course the House and the Senate can discipline its own members. And look, again, a legitimate illness is one thing. Depression is one thing too. But you've got to at least be accountable to your district. And I think if you're really going to fight with something for five months, a quarter of your mandated term is you owe it to your district to resign. Allow somebody else to come in and then when you're better, you can run again if you want. But that's just, that's just me as a, you know, that's just my opinion.

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[Charlie Sykes]

yeah, all right, so we've gone this long into the indoor conversation without talking about the fact that America is at war again with Iran. We are, you know, five or six days where so much for the ceasefire exchanging fire. We're all over the place. Donald Trump announces that he's reimposing the blockade on Iran and then that he was going to charge tolls in the straits. By the way, it's something he's been Talking about since 1987, it looks like, and I'm not actually exaggerating about that. He's been talking about that. That, of course, would end the war, does not achieve our goals, and really threatens the global oil supply again. So give me your thoughts on this. We'd gone from a war that lasted for a few days, then one ceasefire after another, and then Donald Trump announces peace in our time. That memorandum understanding that looked like a surrender. And now we're back to, you know, fire and fury. What's going on? Listen, what's happening?

[Adam Kinzinger]

Yeah, listen, I, I've always been hawkish on Iran and I opposed this war from January on because, mainly because the President did not prepare the American people for it. And I think if you're going to go to war at all, Charlie, if you're going to go to war at all, you can't limit yourself to what you're willing to do with the exception of nuclear weapons. You can say we're not going to use nuclear weapons, but when you start saying we're only going to use air power, we're never going to put in ground troops, what you're saying is the war is worth it up until a certain cost for us, and then we're not willing to bear that. And I would argue if there's a cost you're not willing to pay, then the war isn't worth it, because a war should be a very last kind of last ditch approach. And so let's move on from whether we should have launched the war. And I'll say now, assume I quantum leap back, the war is going to happen. What do I think the mistakes were made along the way? Number one, Trump should have laid off of, you know, public statements because he was negotiating with himself in public. And he made it very clear to the Iranian regime that he wanted out and they knew that and they all of a sudden realized like, oh, we can outweigh him. Secondly, when he went into the actual first kind of ceasefire negotiation without an agreement, we never should have stopped bombing as long as the Iranians were still closing the strait. Right. Anytime you relieve pressure on them, you're resetting the clock in terms of that pain. So where do I think we need to do now? Look, I mean, there is no good option here. And I mean, I've heard you have people on and you've talked about this. Yeah, the, the one option is simply to absolutely vacate the Middle east and leave. And I think we will destroy our reputation on the globe. I think we'll turn over the strait to Iran. And I think it'll do extremely economic damage. And I think my son, who's 4, would very likely have to go back and Confront Iran in 20 years. The other option is we have to just keep inflicting as much pain on the regime as we can and try to compel a solution. That's probably, if I had no control over what happened in the past, that is probably what I would do today, given all these bad options. But honestly, I don't see really a solid way out of this besides some kind of a negotiated solution. And the only way we get there, evidently it's because it's not through not bombing Iran anymore, because Iran, when we have a ceasefire, they close the strait anyway.

[Charlie Sykes]

Yeah. And as long as, as the strait is closed. And it was Donald Trump himself, by the way, speaking of negotiating against himself, when he started comparing himself to Herbert Hoover and saying this would lead to global economic catastrophe, he flips back and forth, we don't need them, we don't need any of that oil. We are completely self sufficient. Not our problem to Herbert Hoover. And the Iranians listen to that. The problem, of course, with Iran right now. And again, you know, we don't know a lot, but it certainly does seem as if, to the extent there was any regime change at all, the regime has become younger, more radical, more militant. And there's no indication whatsoever that the Iranian people are going to overthrow it. If anything, they appear to be more entrenched, more emboldened and willing to take some of this. Now, again, we don't know all the targets. They are obviously suffering. They, they are going to suffer, you know, significant damage. But, you know, this is a high risk proposition for the United States because we're only one drone, one missile away from something really bad happening that could kind of be, I won't say, you know, ending, ending a regime, but, you know, we had one suicide bomber in Afghanistan who I think changed the trajectory of the Biden administration permanently. And one missile, one ship, one bomb in Iran could also have catastrophic implications. And by the way, I'm not trying to say there's just some political terms obviously in human life, because every single day we are putting the lives of men and women at risk throughout the Middle east in our armed forces.

[Adam Kinzinger]

Yeah. Let me say two things. So first off, Trump also failed on this war. There's diplomatic, let's go back to college classes, 101 on diplomacy. There's diplomatic information, military and economic. Those are the four pillars of foreign policy. He screwed up the diplomatic when we didn't ask our allies for help. We probably could have gotten their help, actually, or at least we could have gotten them to acquiesce information. You know, Iran puts out these Lego videos and what does the White House do? They don't fight back with funny memes on Twitter, which, unfortunately, that is the information war today. Instead, they attack Democrats economically. You know, he had lifted the blockade, so he messed that whole thing up. Right. So that's, that's the other. That's one thing, and that's why you put professionals in the presidency. The other point I want to make, though, is this is the last war of this kind that I think you and I will ever see. The war in Ukraine has driven home the fact that the future of war is not million dollar missiles and stealth fighter jets. And as a pilot, it kills me to say that I'm going to write an article on this. It is who can produce, produce the most drones the fastest and take them where they need to go. And that will determine who rules the future. And unfortunately, we're kind of behind on that. You know, we've been throwing Ukraine under the bus, and Ukraine should be teaching us the 21st century warfare. But our pride, the pride of Trump, is not allowing that to happen. And literally, I cannot see a place. Milwaukee, Wisconsin. There's nine tanker aircraft, one I used to fly sitting outside General Mitchell International Airport. What is to stop the Iranians from a first person view drone attack on that National Guard base? And by the way, there's 30 of them around the country. The answer is nothing. Why aren't we preparing for that? And I don't know.

[Charlie Sykes]

No, I mean, and that talk about asymmetric warfare. I mean, the Ukrainians have shown what they could do. Remember when they, when they sent a truck full of drones deep into the heartland of Russia and just opened the truck and all the drones came out and was like, okay, this is a brave new world of terrifying warfare. I think there is a certain naivete about all of that. Adam Kinzinger, thanks so much. There is so much going on. We're gonna continue monitoring what's going on with the Blanche nomination. I think this is really, I won't say it's the ultimate test, but I mean, you know, this is the one really defining vote for all of those senators. I'm gonna be very interested to know what with Senator Cassidy, Senator Cornyn, Senator Murkowski. Senator, who am I leaving? Senator Tillis. And by the way, you know, Tillis can't get him. You know, do over on Pete. Hegseth but for all those folks that are going, you know, maybe it wasn't the smartest thing in the world to vote for Cash Patel and Tulsi Gabbard and Pete, all of. All of those folks, well, you have a chance right now. And because this is the big one. This is the. This feels like the. This kind of the super bowl. Of. Is the Senate still a deliberative body that takes its responsibilities of advice and consent seriously or not? I mean, do you agree with that analysis?

[Adam Kinzinger]

That I agree.

[Charlie Sykes]

And of course the president tries to, you know, advance more, you know, batshit level crazy conspiracy theories Thursday night and we will see what he does and the damage he is willing to do and how MAGA responds, responds and how the Democrats respond anyway. So, Adam, it is great talking with you again. Thank you so much.

[Adam Kinzinger]

You bet. Yep.

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Great.

[Charlie Sykes]

And thank you all for listening to this episode of to the Contrary podcast. I'm Charlie Sykes. We will keep doing this as long as we all need to keep reminding ourselves that we are not the crazy ones. Thank you.

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[Adam Kinzinger]

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[Adam Kinzinger]

I can't believe they're having a gender

[Charlie Sykes]

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[Charlie Sykes]

So, yeah, they're finding out the breed of the puppy they're rescuing.

[Adam Kinzinger]

So they could just be spending all their money on, like, pet insurance.

[Charlie Sykes]

Instead, we got lemonade for Roscoe. And it covered vaccines, microchipping. We saved 90% on vet bills.

[Adam Kinzinger]

Oh, here we go. What do you think beige confetti means? I don't know.

[Charlie Sykes]

That we'll never get this Saturday back. Get a quote for any [e-mail]. peter.