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- [00:00]
Charlie Sykes
Foreign. Welcome back to the to the Contrary podcast. I'm Charlie Sykes, joined by my good friend Adam Kinzinger. Adam, good to talk with you again.
- [00:19]
Adam Kinzinger
It's great to be with you. And I gotta tell you, about 30 minutes ago, I was pretty close to not being with you or with anybody because I was out doing sprints like I was 27 years old on, you know, the. We have a soccer field, and I'm like. You know, mentally, I'm running as hard as I can. I'm like, dude. And honestly, in my head, I'm like, I still got it. Like, I can still do this. And then felt the hammy almost go. And I. I arrested it just in time. And I learned a lesson, which is, at 47, you can still run like you were 27. You just shouldn't still run like you were 27.
- [00:53]
Charlie Sykes
Well, you. You ought to come out to Wisconsin and watch me walking my dog someday. It'll make you feel better about. I mean, just. Okay, so we have to talk about Donald Trump's threats to you and others with the pardon. We have to talk about his getting rolled by Vladimir Putin again yesterday. And I wanna talk about Chuck Schumer and the Democrats and the cr. But I wanna start off by just asking you and get into. It is like, you know, how are you doing? How are you feeling about this? And the reason I'm asking this is because I think we're all. Every day, we get up and we go, oh, my God. It feels like it's worse and crazier than it was the day before. And frankly, it is. It's not just your imagination that you feel that way. And I think part of it is just this. You know, look, you and I have been warning about this. We've been raving about all this, and yet the speed and the volume is overwhelming. So how are you doing? Well, look, I mean, really, how are you doing?
- [01:53]
Adam Kinzinger
It's. It's rough. I mean, I'll be honest with you. It's rough. And I think that the thing. And you struggle with this, I'm sure, too, is, you know, people look up to us for the tone of the day. Right? It's kind of like, okay, what's Charlie saying about this? How do I feel? Same with Adam. And so you have to put on a good front. And. But the reality of it is, I mean, I. You know, just today, I wake up and I'm looking through and I see that, you know, we basically deleted the entire database of 37 Ukrainian children that have been kidnapped by Russia, Yeah. You know, the US Institute of Peace is being taken over, even though DOGE has no right into the US Institute of Peace. And I know the USIP very well. I worked with them, and that stuff gets overwhelming. And so, on the one hand, it's like personal life pretty good, because, you know, it's nice, honestly. It's nice being out of Congress. I'm making more money than I did in Congress. We, you know, I have some more free time. That stuff's nice. In terms of the fact that I can't turn off my passion for my country, sometimes I wish I could. It's obviously a lot harder. And. But I think the important thing to remember here, and this is a very important point I think, for your audience, is like, look, guys, take the big burden that. That I carry, you know, take that burden you carry for your country off your shoulder, because none of us. Charlie's not going to change the world. I'm not going to change the world. You're not going to change the world. We all can together, but we're not going to do it individually. And when we get exhausted, we drop out of the team, basically quit. And that's the key, because I'm going to tell you, the Trumpers are really, every day of chaos. This fires them up. It's like taking a sniff of cocaine for us. It exhausts us. And this is the. This is where it's like an asymmetric fight.
- [03:38]
Charlie Sykes
No, I think that's exactly right. I mean, there's two things. You get exhausted, you get distracted, and then you get depressed, which is exactly what they would like you to do. And I think that, you know, your advice is right, is you need to take a deep breath and realize that, okay, you can control what you can control. And there's a lot you can't control. I mean, let's be honest about it, I have to say, you know, when I was on the radio in Milwaukee, back in the before times and in a distant galaxy, you know, I would think, boy, you know, if I don't do this, this won't get said, or people won't know this. And the reality is right now, you know what, whatever needs to be said will probably be said. Now, having said all that, I do think it's important, as you point out, to be the voice for people to realize that, okay, you know what? You're not in this alone. I think isolation is a real problem, and I know it's become a cliche. You know, we're not the crazy ones, but, I mean, There, there is that. That, that. That moment where you're just watching the insanity and going, wait, this doesn't make any sense. Why are they behaving this way? You know, why are people not responding this way? And the answer is, you're not alone. I mean, you may have these loud voices and they may be dominating social media, but. But trust me, and we have to stay in touch with one another, but these are tough times. And. And, you know, I. I think every one of us has that temptation to say, you know what? Let's devote ourselves to something other than politics. You know, I. You know, I find that constant temptation. I need to get off the daily hamster wheel. I need to, you know, get away from the crazy. And yet I'm haunted by what Charles Krauthammer once wrote. He said, you know, you have to get the politics right, because if you don't, nothing else will work. It's all downstream from that. I mean, I would like to think that politics. And it used to be that way, right? You could put it in a box over here and then live your life and do other things, but history tells us that if you get the politics wrong, then the effects on society will be devastating. And we're in that moment, so. Well, I'm glad you're new. Yeah, yeah.
- [05:50]
Adam Kinzinger
And I think that's an interesting point is like, you know, look, it's the fact. Anybody watching us right now, and then obviously, you and I, we're in the. Let's call it the 10 or 15% of Americans who actually pay attention to politics. Believe it or not, most Americans don't. And in a way, it's a privilege because it's like we are part of a class of people that can determine the future of this country the way it goes. And the thing I try to remember, and this has kind of been my message of late, because, you know, where it gets discouraging is seeing people like Elon Musk, who's literally. His is worth half a trillion dollars. He got his money from us in the federal government, and then he's telling totally. And telling us what we can and can't live without. But it's the remembrance that this still is not a country of billionaires and powerful people. It's a country that, you know, we can. It still is our country. And I think, you know, if we quit believing that, then it becomes, you know, Elon Musk's country. But it's not the. Like, yes, we have to wait till an election, but it still is our country. And I think. I think it's going to be a hero story is going to be written about what we do after the next couple of years, honestly.
- [06:58]
Charlie Sykes
Well, I keep waiting to read that. I mean, I keep waiting for all of that. I mean, it's a. Part of it is. I think there's also the. The level of. You were talking about it, you know, exhaustion and depression. There's also the frustration because, I mean, let's be honest about it, we've been doing this now for nine or ten years, some of us, you know, and there have been. There was all of that commentary. The walls are closing in, or this is, you know, going to change and everything, and then it doesn't happen. The movie we thought we were in was canceled, and we're in this dystopian movie. And. And there are those. And I think that was one of the reasons why people dropped out after the election. I think they. It was just too much. They, you know, there were. There was too much stress. There were too many threats. There was too much false hope. A lot doesn't make any sense. I mean, I think that's part of the problem is that things don't make sense. That, you know, and I keep, you know, we keep coming back to what we thought the world was going to look like on January 7th, what we know about that. And to think that the entire Republican Party basically decided to shrug its shoulders and say it's okay and that Trump would be back. If someone would have told us that on January 7, 2021, our heads would have exploded. It would have been utterly inconceivable.
- [08:06]
Adam Kinzinger
Did I ever tell you, by the way? And I've wanted to go back and find it, but I remember the Bulwark podcast you did the day after January 6th, and you had. I think you had some of the contributors on. It was just kind of like a panel. We're going to talk about what happened. And to the T, every one of you all. And I even thought it when I remember I'm running on the treadmill listening to it, and every one of you all, including me, thought, there's no way. This isn't the thing that changes the party. And I don't even think there was any contrarian voice on the podcast that day. Everybody's like, yeah, I mean, it may take. But like, there's no way. And we didn't wake up from it. But by the way, that's the other interesting thing, because you talk about how we woke up even after this election with a different, different reality than we were hoping for. This is why. This. Why substack has grown so much as an example. Yeah. Is because people. Now, it's one thing to get news fed to you, and I still think news plays an important role, but I think people are lacking community. And substack is like that. You know, if they put a comment under my article or under your podcast or article, and they. They read other people saying the same thing, it does give us a sense of community. And I think that's where. Why you've seen substat grow so much. And I think that's why. Because people are desperate to know there's other people like us out there. And by the way, folks, there are.
- [09:26]
Charlie Sykes
Okay, so this was one of my big surprises after the election when the cable TV ratings cratered. I thought, you know, that's it for substack. Who's going to want to read, you know, our commentary anymore? In fact, the absolute opposite happened, as far as I know, to pretty much everybody. And I think a couple of things happened was that people. We have an attention economy. We also have a trust economy. And people were looking for those kindred spirits, those voices that they could, in fact, trust. And I saw a chart the other day about what's happened to legacy media. I mean, I'm an old newspaper reporter. My father was a newspaper reporter. I think since 1990, there's been an 80% decline in employment in newspapers and print journalism. And maybe it's broader than that, but we've had this vast, historic collapse of traditional media, and that has huge consequences, and that has huge consequence. And then you have the corporate media, which has decided that, well, it can't decide what it wants to be. Right. Does it. Does it bow the knee? Does it give in? And so the. The market for independent journalism has never been greater. I think. I think that's true. And that's one thing that does keep us sane. And. And I. I have to say, one of the things I really love about the newsletters is looking at the comments section because you realize there are really, really thoughtful people who are looking to have serious dialogue and discussions about what's going on.
- [10:52]
Adam Kinzinger
Yep, yep. And I. And. And, well, I was gonna say, too, that, you know, one of the things I remember in 2010 or 2011, like, you know, when I was running for Congress, going to the blooming.
- [11:04]
Charlie Sykes
The ancient days. Yeah, yeah.
- [11:06]
Adam Kinzinger
Back in the ancient days, go into the Bloomington Pantograph for the editorial board, and it was an actual editorial board. And I go into this ginormous building that I grew up driving by and being like, holy cow, that's the newspaper. And it was filled with people. Now, I mean, just 10 or 12 years later, you go there and it's a skeleton of itself. It's totally shocking. And, and I think, you know, that's been a problem is, you know, who reports on, you know, what happens at the girls high school anymore? You know, no, Earnest at the girls high school. The girls high school baseball, you know, softball team or whatever. And you lose that connection to local government. But again, that's a role substat can play. And that's. That's frankly what people are begging for. And whatever people beg for, they will create in this economy and this environment.
- [11:50]
Charlie Sykes
Still, at least, at least temporarily. No, you know, I grew up around newspapers. I remember, you know, my dad bringing me to the newspaper. He worked at what used to be the old Milwaukee Sentinel. And my first job was at the Milwaukee Journal. And I always thought of the daily newspaper as this miracle that you would, you know, have all these people together and they would produce it. It would come out every single day. I mean, I was literally in, you know, how old I am. You know, you're talking about your hammy is that I was actually around the newspaper in 1963, and my dad ripped off all the teletype reports when John F. Kennedy was shot. And I have it in the book that I kept over here. But I have to say that just recently, I watched that documentary about Katherine Graham, you know, the publisher of the Washington Post, which was very inspirational but ultimately very, very depressing because you realize that whole era when newspapers had that kind of a role, but also when there were guardrails, when A, you know, led to B, that two plus two equaled four, not five, there were consequences. There was accountability. The system worked. And I'm watching that thinking that's that era is gone. That, that era that that once existed was gone. Okay, well, let's just. Let's just dive into this. I was listening to some of the commentary yesterday after the Trump Putin phone call, and it is amazing how some people are just willing to say, well, you know, the White House readout says that we've taken a step toward peace. I don't know, Adam, what your take was a complete bullshit. I mean, Vladimir Putin rolled Trump again. Vladimir Putin's big victory was getting Donald Trump on the phone, engaged in the negotiations. Because Donald Trump is a notoriously terrible negotiator. He's unprepared, he's easily distracted, he's easily sucked up to the flattery. And as a result, Vladimir Putin is just playing him. I mean, this former KGB agent plays him like putty. He, he enjoys humiliating Trump and Trump doesn't seem to understand that he's being humiliated or in some weird sick S and M thing, actually likes it has this endless capacity for appeasement. So your take on, on what happened, what happened yesterday, actually yesterday being Tuesday.
- [14:11]
Adam Kinzinger
And think of how it started. Like, he kept Trump waiting for an hour.
- [14:17]
Charlie Sykes
That's what I mean, the humiliation. Yeah.
- [14:19]
Adam Kinzinger
And like, and Trump then gets on there and it's, you know, what I would have done if I was president. He kept me waiting five minutes is hang up, he can reach out. Look, and let's keep in mind, let's set the table here. The Russian economy is on the verge of collapse and they have incredible inflation. They've sold their gold assets to try to fund this war. They've lost 800,000 men. So they're going to run out of offensive combat power this year, period. And, and so, you know, certainly the United States in the west is in the capper seat here, but Trump just simply, whether he's got a decent affection for Putin or he's playing the I'm a great negotiator game, Putin knows how to own him. And so they walk out of that. Keep in mind, you go back a week, Ukraine agreed to a one month ceasefire. Donald Trump said at that time, he goes, if they don't agree to the ceasefire, then we're going to put devastating sanctions on Russia. Right? That's what they said.
- [15:13]
Charlie Sykes
We already haven't we?
- [15:14]
Adam Kinzinger
Yeah, yeah, well, and he said, but we can put more on. We can, we can. Cause we can. And, and he didn't. He hasn't. So he meets with Putin and then what happens? Well, Putin says, okay, well, we'll, we'll cut the attacks on the, on the energy infrastructure.
- [15:30]
Charlie Sykes
Yeah.
- [15:31]
Adam Kinzinger
Okay, well, guess what? Shortly after that, Vladimir, five minutes later, five minutes later, attacks the energy infrastructure of Ukraine and Ukraine fires back. So, yeah, he's walking all over Trump. And I mean, if I was Trump, I'd be furious. But I think Trump's beyond the capacity of being furious. If it's somebody like Vladimir Putin, for whatever reason, he looks up to him and Kim Jong un.
- [15:56]
Charlie Sykes
Okay, well, for whatever reason. And I think the psychology of this is actually fascinating what's going on here, because again, the one consistent thing about Trump over the last 10 years is that he has never once criticized Vladimir Putin. He's never broken with him. I don't Know what? Did you catch the Laura Ingraham interview, which was actually rather extraordinary. You know, she's a Trump loyalist and at the same time he's talking about, we want more trade with Russia, we want to, you know, improve our relations with Russia. He's ripping on Canada. You know, the. Canada is the great enemy. What was interesting is that Laura Ingraham, I mean, it was one of those moments where even she's thinking, you know, you're not making any sense here. This sounds insane. She didn't even try to pretend that he was making any sense. But. No, but in a negotiation, if one of you plays the long game, which Vladimir Putin always does, and Donald Trump goes from moment to moment with the memory of a goldfish and just wants to, whatever you give him, whatever shit sandwich you give him, he'll say is a filet mignon that I created in the best ever. It's Trump's stake. The, the asymmetry is going to, is going to play out here. And Donald Trump makes one concession after another to Russia. Russia has made no concessions whatsoever. Russia is demanding a complete cutoff of all aid to Ukraine as a condition of, of this. Donald Trump is already signaling that, yes, we're going to recognize your control over Crimea. I mean, it's just, you know, does anyone think that this is going to result in peace? I mean, some of the media commentary just seemed so naive that these, you know, one small step toward peace. There's no step toward peace here. This is, this peace is not Vladimir Putin's goal.
- [17:51]
Adam Kinzinger
And let's think about all of our friends who always, you know, worship Ronald Reagan. Right, that don't have a right to worship Ronald Reagan. What is it Ronald Reagan always said or he said in the gold, the Goldwater speech? We can have peace and we can have it this next second. Surrender. Right? And that's exactly what Trump is saying is basically, if we give Russia everything they want, we can have peace. Well, trust me, we sure can. If we'd have given Hitler, you know, France and the UK we could have had peace with Germany. But at some point you take a stand and you say, it's not worth it. And I think the crazy thing is like, you know, Donald Trump has basically. Do you remember how when Barack Obama, you know, negotiated the deal with Iran, we said, gosh, he looks so desperate. Iran rolled him, they took him for a ride. And I still believe they did. But this is exactly what's happening to Donald Trump. He's made it very clear through the campaign and since the campaign that, come hell or high water, he's going to.
- [18:44]
Charlie Sykes
Get a deal a lot worse.
- [18:45]
Adam Kinzinger
And, yeah, way worse. And Russia can sniff this out. Russia knows Vladimir Putin knows his desperation. And so he's like, well, look, I can. I know I can sustain the war effort another six months. So let's just. Let's make Trump sweat and see how desperate he gets. And honestly, Charlie, we're going to see desperation. He is. I will not be surprised if ultimately he agrees that we'll stop aid and intel sharing with Ukraine for a ceasefire.
- [19:10]
Charlie Sykes
I have no doubt. Well, he's already done it. He's already cutting them off. After that tantrum in the White House, I don't think Russia needs to sniff it out, because Donald Trump's flop sweat is so obvious for anybody to see. I mean, Donald Trump believes that all he has to do is simply declare that he won something and that everyone's going to see it. It's like the wall, you know, the wall with Mexico that Mexico paid for. I don't know that that's going to be the case, particularly if, in fact, the headline is that you have Russian tanks rolling into Kyiv, which, you know, God forbid, will never happen. All right, so the other big story of the last couple of days has been Donald Trump's war against the. The judiciary. And I just want to start off with what might be an uncomfortable reality for some of our viewers and listeners is that Donald Trump is having the argument, the fight that he wants right now. He wants to fight over Venezuelan gang members. And if he's going to abuse his power and defy courts, this is the issue that he wants. He wants to have drug dealers, rapists, murderers, and say, I am keeping you safe. The judges are letting you go. And I don't think that it's hard to keep in your head two thoughts at the same time, that these thugs should be incarcerated, they should be deported. But we are a nation of laws, and we must have due process. I wonder how thin that principle is right now, because he has been remarkably successful in getting MAGA to line up with his attack on the rule of law. And he's been very successful in delegitimizing the criminal justice system. And you see this chorus out there and you listen to this, this. You see some of the same stuff that I see. So he's created of, you know, tens of millions of people who actually don't think that we need due process and don't think necessarily that we need to listen to the court.
- [21:07]
Adam Kinzinger
Yeah, it's very worrisome. And here's. And you talk about we've got to hold two thoughts in our head at the same time. Here's my concern and my friendly advice to the left. Okay. I think from this 2016 to the 2020 time frame, they fell into the trap of everything Trump is for, we're against. Right?
- [21:28]
Charlie Sykes
Yeah.
- [21:28]
Adam Kinzinger
That's why I think inherently they were against border security even when Biden was president, because Trump was for it. And you've got to be very careful to, to just knee jerk reaction, oppose everything Trump does. You can walk that important line. And so on the one hand saying, look, yes, Venezuelan drug dealers should not be allowed in the United States. And honestly, if you're here illegally, you know, you need to expect to be deported. Now, do I believe we should be driving the, the, you know, the police wagons around looking for anybody that's brown? No. But if you're here illegally, there is an expectation that if you do something, you get pulled over, whatever, you might get deported. Okay. That's like actually the law in the United States. But when you hear the, the stories about potentially, I think we don't fully know the story because this is just his side, but this guy who had gang tattoos, what they perceived as gang tattoos, that was Venezuelan, that actually was an artist.
- [22:29]
Charlie Sykes
Yeah.
- [22:29]
Adam Kinzinger
Came here filing for asylum and has disappeared into the El Salvador prison. Look, Charlie, my wife is Salvadorian and knows, you know, she knows all about Bukele in the Salvadorian prison. This is not compliant with any human rights. You basically never see the sun. You disappear into a black hole, a city of like 50,000 criminals. It probably makes the Gulags look like a five star resort. And, and we potentially sent somebody there that was completely innocent and that we can't even get a read on where he is now. And those are the kinds of things that I think we can focus on and be very clear about. Yes, we have no compassion for, for cartel members and drug dealers. No compassion. At the same time, we do have a rule of law. Because right now, if it's the drug dealers today, it's the, what, what is it? The communists tomorrow, the gays the next day and you the next day. Right, that's, that's like what you're running into.
- [23:26]
Charlie Sykes
No. And, and now let's talk about John Roberts, because the, this whole controversy really escalated when you had a federal judge who said, look, you cannot do this. And it looked like they were defying him. Although Donald Trump is now denying that. By the way, the expiration date on Donald Trump not defying Judges, I give it just a couple of days before he reverses himself on that. But you have Chief Justice Roberts doing something very unusual. He issues a rare statement, a rebuke of the President, saying, we do not impeach judges because we disagree with all of them. Now, I mean, look, understandably, there's a lot of people reacting with some degree of snark. I'm one of them, which is John Roberts in many ways contributed to this. He enabled Donald Trump, he immunized. Donald Trump might be having some buyer's regret, but I thought it was notable because the Chief justice is recognizing that this is dangerous, this is a dangerous moment, and that he has to push back on it. Elon Musk members, Republicans in Congress are buying into this notion that we're going to attack the judiciary. I mean, this would be like the last domino to fall in terms of the breakdown of the constitutional order. So your thoughts on John Roberts and the way MAGA is now lashing out at the Chief Justice? I think in their hearts, they think we're going to bully him and Amy Coney Barrett into getting back into line. I'm not sure it works that way with Supreme Court justices, but who knows?
- [24:59]
Adam Kinzinger
It doesn't work like that. And look, it didn't work with me like that. Like, let's just take my example. When I would go against Trump and, and they would unleash hell on me on the Internet, I was actually of the personality that it made. It pissed me off more. And I actually.
- [25:12]
Charlie Sykes
Yeah, that's the way I work. Yeah, yeah, right.
- [25:14]
Adam Kinzinger
And, and you can tell that there.
- [25:16]
Charlie Sykes
Are the Lindsey Grahams of the world, though. Yeah, there's the Lindsey Graham's, Ted Graham. I can think of Ted Cruz, Lindsay Graham, Marco Rubio.
- [25:25]
Adam Kinzinger
Oh, it's just like, what the hell happened to you guys? Like, for me, I'm like, you Seriously, it's like with the, with the, with the jail threats to us, I'm like, bring it. But anyway, yeah, so we'll get to that. I think, I think they're pushing too far by going after Roberts and by going after Amy Coney Barrett. These guys, I don't think they fear for their safety. You know, this idea, by the way, whenever you hear politicians say, gosh, I had to vote for something because I'm afraid I'm going to get assassinated. First off, I don't actually believe it. I think that's an excuse for the cowardice. And secondly, obviously, if you do have that fear, then get out and get another job. And I don't Think Supreme Court justices act in that. And I think this has the potential of pissing them off. And it actually can make somebody like John Roberts more aware of the fact that, look, they're serious about defying judicial order. This isn't just entertainment anymore.
- [26:17]
Charlie Sykes
They are very serious.
- [26:19]
Adam Kinzinger
They're very serious about it. And this is. Look, it literally is. I can honestly say, if we all of a sudden say that the Supreme Court has. Has no purpose and plays no role, I have a hard time seeing how we get the union back. So this really is the last firestop.
- [26:36]
Charlie Sykes
You know, I think that the cool kid approach is to say, oh, don't worry about it. You know, these. These. The warnings about authoritarianism or autocracy or the end of democracy, they're overblown. And I think that's the real danger. And it's very clear to me now that you have members of the judiciary and of, like, the Federalist Society community who are realizing, no, this is serious. This is really, really grave. I think you need to sort of connect the dots. The mass resignation of these attorneys, some of whom had clerked for Justice Scalia and Judge Justice Kavanaugh, who are saying that, no, this is just wrong. This is really an assault on the rule of law. And if you get members of the court thinking that way, I think that will be a positive development. And I don't know that you can intimidate them into going the other direction. So, yeah, Justice Roberts has a lot to answer for. I think that one of the things that has created the moment we're in right now was that immunity decision.
- [27:38]
Adam Kinzinger
Sure.
- [27:38]
Charlie Sykes
Because right now, you can tell that the Trump folks, the entire administration, is acting without any fear that they will ever be held accountable, that there is no law, no rule, no norm that they will break, for which they will be held accountable. And you and I could have predicted that would be very, very dangerous. But the reality of it is, and the fact that they are pushing the limits on a daily basis has to be alarming to anybody in the judiciary, whether you are appointed by Barack Obama or even Donald Trump.
- [28:12]
Adam Kinzinger
And this is a message. Here's a message on this, which is, look, Trump's asymmetric advantage, his superpower, is he will always forgive you and always take you back. Okay, Charlie Sykes, could. You could put out an article tomorrow saying you were wrong about Donald Trump and you love him, and you would be at the White House within a week. Okay, I could do the same thing. That is a superpower of a cult leader. He'll always take you Back, but you can never cross him again. But he'll show you mercy. So I say that to say to the, to, I don't even like saying the left, because it's not the left. It's the same right, the center and the left to those of us that are not Trumpers, is when somebody like John Roberts does a good thing, we can't necessarily sit here with the opinion of, well, he already discredited himself, so we're never going to talk to him again. Or when you see. Right, right member of the House, you know, you know how it is. Like, you see somebody that comes back and like, you know what? I was wrong about Trump. And people are like, well, guess what? You were wrong about Trump, so we're never going to talk to you again. Well, I'm sorry, you don't put a 51% coalition together that way. You have to welcome converts. Right? I, I grew up Baptist. We welcome converts from, even from the Catholic Church, like, whatever it is. Right. Like walking converts. Even Catholics.
- [29:29]
Charlie Sykes
Well, I mean, make you feel better, you know, I was always anti Trump, but I still get on a daily basis, you know, somebody on Blue sky saying, well, you built this. You know, you were a conservative, whatever. But you, you are right. Trump will bring in almost everybody back. So what about Nikki Haley and Ron DeSantis, though? They seem out there, I mean, that maybe sucking up.
- [29:53]
Adam Kinzinger
Yeah, I don't know.
- [29:54]
Charlie Sykes
But you got a theory on that?
- [29:56]
Adam Kinzinger
There's like a point at which I don't know. I mean, I guess if you cross. Well, let me say this. So maybe if you've crossed Trump in the past, you can, you, you don't necessarily expect to get a position in the administration, but I think if Nikki Haley made the decision, like, I'm going to go basically rub Trump's feet, he would probably bring her back to the White House. And, you know, DeSantis maybe just happened across him at a vulnerable time, and he won't forget that. But if he ever feels like he needs Ron DeSantis, he'll come back to him. But, yeah, there may be, like, a line you can cross. But I got to tell you, especially people like you and I who Trump never really had, he's obsessed with you and I. He knows your name, he knows my name. He's obsessed with us because he's never had us in the first place, did it?
- [30:44]
Charlie Sykes
They ever show you what he sent me, that. He actually sent me this, this, this newspaper? I don't know. I don't know if I don't I don't know that I do. Hold on, hold on a second.
- [30:53]
Adam Kinzinger
Did you say, like, very mean?
- [30:56]
Charlie Sykes
No, no, no, no. This is, this was from 2,016. Okay. So he sends me this actually, you know, in a FedEx envelope, this front page, the whole front section of the New York Times with. Can you say, Charlie, Charlie, I hope.
- [31:14]
Adam Kinzinger
You can change your mind.
- [31:17]
Charlie Sykes
That is, I will win. Yeah, that's right. So this is. I've, I have, I've, I've kept that. Yeah, that's. That is, that is.
- [31:25]
Adam Kinzinger
And you're probably like, haha, you're not gonna win.
- [31:28]
Charlie Sykes
Oh, no. I mean, look, I make no bones about it that I had no idea back in 2016. In fact, I do remember one time I did, you know, you do a lot of interviews and everything, and the one time I was on a show, I think, with like the BBC, and we were talking about what's going to happen after the election. And the host said, so, well, what happens if Trump wins in 2016? And I remember being absolutely speechless. Yeah, I had thought about that. There is no, There is no way. Although I am, I am, you know, feeling better about my Trump derangement syndrome. The Trump derangement syndrome turned out to be prophetic. Okay, so speaking of your personal situation, I know what your reaction was, but I want to talk about just a little bit. So Trump wakes up in the middle of the night and decides that all of the preemptive pardons are invalid because Biden used an auto pen or something. It's a completely bullshit argument, but, you know, clearly indicating that he wants to continue to go after you former members of the January 6th committee. You know, he gave that bellicose, angry, bitter, vengeful speech at the Department of Justice. So, you know, you're, you're in the. Bring it on, bro. But really, what do you think's going to happen? And why is he so obsessed with this?
- [32:57]
Adam Kinzinger
This could be along the lines of my prediction about his chances in 2016 as well. But I really have come to believe that this guy's superpower is an intimidation and not in doing. And the more you're intimidated by him, the more you're like, you know, I don't know if this is true, but I heard this once, so if it's not true, whatever, it's still a hell of an allegory. Which is a lion, actually. It's his roar that paralyzes his prey and then he pounces. And that the lion itself, obviously very strong, but not near as strong as the Paralyzation of the roar. And the roar is what really. And I kind of see that with Trump. Like, does he have power? Sure. Could he actually come after me if he wants to? Yeah. But it's his bark that's so much louder than his bite, is strong. And so I've learned. And this is, this is the honest truth about Trump. Like, he's been obsessed with me. And in a way, like, if you notice, he doesn't attack me all that much. It's very rare. And he really wants me to like him. And I'm going to say that from Oval Office meetings I've had with him and everything. And, and so my view is not to be intimidated. It's to be like, dude, bring it on. And honestly, Charlie, because I'm not going to sit here for, like, after the election, I said, okay, look, America doesn't care about January 6th. And I was ready to move on. Right. I did my. I did my role for history. America made a decision. It's in the books, but I'm moving on. He's the one that's obsessed with it. He refuses to move on. So, you know what I'm not going to do is sit here for four years with his little playing, you know, with the idea of it. No. Either bring it on or shut the hell up. You have one choice. But by the way, and I mean this in all seriousness, if you do bring it on and you try to put me in jail, you're going to have to manufacture charges, obviously, and I will waste you in the court of law, and I'll be 30 times more effective than I am today, and I will personally be the one that brings you down out of power. I really believe that. And so my view is, if he does decide to come after me, awesome. Now I know what I need to do for the next four years to take him down. If he doesn't, I'm calling his bluff. Shut up. Either do it or shut up. And I really mean that. And I think everybody in his crosshairs has to take that position. He doesn't have the authority. We think he does.
- [35:18]
Charlie Sykes
Well, and that's the thing about bullies also, is that if you, if you don't push back on the bullies, you just embolden them. We've seen this over and over and over again. Whereas if you push back on them, he'll move on to a different target. By the way, this is one of those stories that just reminds us that there's no real strategic plan here. There are the Trump splainers. Who try to make sense of this. Stories like this are just an indication of how he's the prisoner of his own impulses, anger and his id. Because none of this makes any sense for him to go off on these tangents. And it's his complete lack of discipline, by the way. I think that's one of the things that's rattling the markets right now. It sounds like I'm changing the subject, but you can see that the business community and the markets are now going, does this guy have a plan or is he going to wake up in the middle of the night and decide to go to war with some country that he's going to slap that I can't make a prediction? Businesses need to have some sort of certainty, some sort of predictability. And what Donald Trump reminds us on a daily basis is how mercurial he is. That's a very nice way of saying, you know, that he's batshit crazy on this stuff. And so he might go to war with EU and he might do something to Japan. We just don't know. And it's not clear that he'll listen to anybody if he's angry or he's pissed off.
- [36:38]
Adam Kinzinger
And this is why it's so important when we talk about, and this is an important point to go back to Ukraine for a second. Why security guarantees are so important for Ukraine is these companies, they need, they need to know that the next 10 or 20 year horizon is safe for investing. So if all of a sudden we're going to, we're going to level massive tariffs on Canada, an American corporation has to rethink these long term investments in Canada and vice versa, Canadian corporations in America and that creates angst. Right? Same with Ukraine. If we're going to have Ukraine be rebuilt by private capital, you have to give some assurance that Russia can't start that war again or it would be fiduciarily irresponsible for any corporation to invest in Ukraine if the war could start again in a year. And then obviously then you have a mass migration problem. You actually end up with probably some version of terrorism out of the poverty of Ukraine. So that is why it's so important to have security guarantees. And that's why it's not even tariffs that are so bad for the market, although they are. It's the threat of tariffs that are just as bad for the market because they don't know. How do you make a decision as a company?
- [37:45]
Charlie Sykes
Right? You can plan for something, you can work it in, but if it just drops at you in the middle of a quarter, what do you do about all that? Not to mention the fact that we live in a world of incredibly complicated and complex supply chains, which is something that conservative economics economists have been talking about for decades now. But all right, so let's talk about Chuck Schumer. Let's talk about where we're at now. Everything seems like it's a million years ago, but it looked like last week that we were on the brink of a government shutdown. Chuck Schumer certainly indicated that we were going, that the Republicans lacked the votes, and then very, very suddenly reversed course and announced he was going to vote to move ahead with this. We averted the government shutdown. Democrats are in full uproar about it now. I thought that the bill was terrible. I thought it was a poison pill wrapped in a shit sandwich. I did really worry about what Trump and Musk would do with a government shutdown. So I ultimately, very reluctantly, thought that Schumer made the right decision. I think he did it in the worst possible way. But I think you took a harsher view. So give me your sense of what the Democrats should have done.
- [39:08]
Adam Kinzinger
Yeah, I did take a harsher view because, look, when I was in Congress, I was always the guy saying, I'm not going to vote to shut the government down. But I was negotiating with a party that actually believed in democracy as well. They just had a different view on what some of the spending levels and stuff should be. First off, the second any Democrat said, I'm not a shutdown guy, I'm not going to vote to shut down the government. They should have been kicked out of the party. Because what you do is you're automatically taking ownership of the fact that it is your responsibility to keep the government open. You don't have any levers of power. It is 100% on the Republicans. And I get it, they need Democratic votes in the Senate, but that's exactly what the filibuster rule is. It's not your fault that they need 60 votes. So the Republicans have to come to you and give you something to get the 60 votes the second you give up that leverage. Basically, the Senate, I guess the House, by definition, Jared golden, who voted for it, but certainly the Senate. You gave up any leverage you have until October. And by the way, in October, they may fund the government through reconciliation. So let's think about this. If you're going to pass a law in Congress that, let's say it bans trans athletes, right? You say Congress shall not appropriate money for whatever Trans athletes, or let's say you want to protect trans athletes. Congress shall appropriate money to protect trans. Basically, all language in Congress is about shall and shall not in terms of appropriations of cash. That is the only power that has. They gave that away for nothing. And I've got to tell you, if a government shutdown would have happened, the idea that it would have been blamed on the Democrats is ludicrous. You would have to turn against every single time in history that a government is shut down under one party and looked at it and said that party always does take the blame. You would have to say that somehow that's not going to be the case. And I'll tell you what it wouldn't be the case, Charlie, is if the Democrats were too lazy to go out and message it, because the Republicans would have spent 90% of their effort trying to pin it on the Democrats. And honestly, that's what I think it comes down to. Chuck Schumer has a book tour, and if he would have shut the government down, yeah, cancel now anyway. But. But he would have had to force his members to go out. And it's hard work. I've been there, man. I don't like it either. To message that, look, hey, we're happy to help keep the government open, but you need 60 votes. Come get 60 votes. And you think about that basic message, Charlie, of like, look, we're all for keeping the government open, but you have to have 60 votes in the Senate. Come get 60 votes. Tell me that's not a winner with the American people. It is, because generally 80% of America thinks, like House and Republican, that Democrats, Republicans should work together. So that's my, that's my diatribe on that.
- [41:53]
Charlie Sykes
Okay, so I guess the counterargument was, and Schumer made this argument and I accepted some of it, which was that Donald Trump and Elon Musk want to shut down the government. They are dismantling the federal government. This would give them sweeping new opportunities to slash and cut programs, because it would be up to them unilaterally decide what's essential, what's not essential. So really, you still see tremendous power to destroy the government. To them. The other argument was that why change the subject in a moment when Donald Trump was digging himself a hole, why put the onus on Democrats? Now, that argument hasn't played out as well because clearly the discussions already switched to Democrats back in disarray, the circular firing squad of Democrats at a time of a constitutional crisis. But how do you answer that? By not going along with this that you actually would have empowered both Elon Musk and Donald Trump to do more destruction.
- [42:58]
Adam Kinzinger
Look, it's possible, right? It is possible. But let's say here, let's look at what the contrary is. What more destruction are they going to do that they're not already doing doing? And what's the only thing that's stopping them from doing more destruction is the courts. The courts will exist whether the government is shut down or not. Look, right, they would, they would have accept that. They know that the courts again, can step in and have a guardrail out there for what they can do. They've basically operated within what they think they can get away with. Again, shutting down the government. Yes, you get to label some people non essential. Can they do more damage? Maybe, maybe. But you still have the same guardrails of the courts. So whether or not you're in a lapse of appropriation and you fire people within the guardrails here during or not, or you go outside of the guardrails, you still have the same court protection. So I don't think, I mean, again, I recognize it is a risk. I, I'm, you know, not saying there isn't, but the question is, do we accept their hostage tactics and say, fine, you're willing to shoot a hostage, so we're going to just give you the million dollars, or do we call the bluff and say we're going to send a hostage rescue team in to try to do it the right way? And that's a look, it's a question every FBI agent in that situation has to make. I think the leader had to make that. I think he made the wrong one. But yes, there is risk. There's risk in everything. Otherwise, you know, it'd be easy decision.
- [44:24]
Charlie Sykes
So one of the side debates is, should Chuck Schumer stay as the Senate majority and Senate minority leader? And as somebody that thinks that he ultimately made the right decision but handled it as badly as he possibly could, I have to say that if Democrats are gonna figure out how to move through this period, they need new leadership. Yes, this Gerontocracy thing has been just a boat anchor. They're losing young voters. But also you just sense that we have an entire generation of leaders that just does not know how to meet this moment.
- [44:58]
Adam Kinzinger
Right.
- [44:58]
Charlie Sykes
Joe Biden did not know how to meet this moment. I don't think Chuck Schumer did. I mean, Chuck Schumer could not have handled the messaging on this any worse than he did. And in part, he was also caught flat footed because I think the reality is that what happened was that he just assumed that Mike Johnson was not gonna get the votes to get this through the House.
- [45:16]
Adam Kinzinger
Right.
- [45:16]
Charlie Sykes
He assumed that this was. So he had no plan B. How the fuck do you have no plan B? How do you not have some sort of messaging? How do you go from one day saying, you know, we're not going to go along with this too? Yes, I'm caving in. The lack of messaging, it honestly could not have looked worse from his point of view. And I think this is one of those moments where Democrats need to say, you know, whatever our loyalty is, we have got to move generationally. Now, I'm not suggesting AOC is the leader, but you need a new group of leaders that understand how to message the enormity of the threat that we face. I'm using that word wrong. I think maybe I'm not. The, the, the. The gravity of the fact that this is not normal, this is an existential threat, and if you believe that, you need to act like it. Chuck Schumer does not have the DNA to do this, and I don't know how many others, you know, do.
- [46:10]
Adam Kinzinger
Yeah, let me, let me add a layer on that. From November to January to the inauguration, we were out there saying, they're going to F up government. All of a sudden, Charlie Trump gets inaugurated. He throws musk in there, they start firing everybody, sending DOGE into these offices. And what are the Democrats do? Nothing. They're caught off guard. You and I have been saying they're gonna do Project 2025. They were caught up. They had it in the book. They had it in the book, the blueprints there. And on top of that, during all of that stuff, what was going on in the House, this is a. A strike against Hakeem Jeffries. But they were home on recess. If I was the leader of the Democrats, I'd have been like, look, we're on recess, but you all are getting your ass to Washington. And we're going to sit on the floor of the House, we're going to go to every single one of these agencies. We're doges. And every day we're going to demand entry in so that we can have oversight. And if they refuse like they did one time, we're not going to say thank you for your service and walk away like the Democrats did. We're going down the street to the D.C. district Court and getting a court order into the building that we have oversight over. That's how you fight that first. But they didn't do anything. They sat on their butt. They waited till they came back in session. And I'm sorry for, you know, Akeem Jeffries probably needs to stay for now. He's, he's decent enough. I mean, problem is, he's up against, you know, Pelosi, and that's hard to compare against. But Schumer's got to go. I mean, you saw that rally where they're like, we will win.
- [47:43]
Charlie Sykes
Oh, we won't. Yeah.
- [47:46]
Adam Kinzinger
Oh, and, and the guy, I'm sorry, maybe a nice guy. I don't know. He's too old. He's not right for this. And I want to echo just quickly what you said, Charlie. The answer is not further left, guys. The answer is not. We need somebody that, you know, joins Bernie Sanders, because I'm going to tell you, the identity politics is why you lost. It's why you lost. I'm sorry that you think you weren't far, that some people think that it's just the Democrats weren't far enough left and, and they didn't rally it. No. I'm going to tell you, I've talked to 100 people that would have happily voted for a centrist Democrat that voted for Trump because they were scared to death of a bunch of other stuff. You can win that way, but get somebody young. Chris Murphy's probably a little further to the left, but I think he's, he's a very moderate in his voice.
- [48:33]
Charlie Sykes
His name keeps coming up. Yeah, yeah, right.
- [48:35]
Adam Kinzinger
Yeah, I know. Well, also, he's, he's much more liberal than me, but I think he understands how to work together, and I think he's got a centrist mindset.
- [48:44]
Charlie Sykes
He also understands the moment, and he understands how you have to answer Trumpism, how you have to deal with it. That in fact, that this is not the world. You know, look, if you've been around politics as long as Chuck Schumer, you begin to think that, well, okay, I remember how we played this back in 1997 or back in 2005, we had this piece of legislation or we needed to have this tactic back in 2015, that world is gone. It is erased. And unless you understand that, unless you approach the new threats with new eyes and new tactics and new voices, you're going to continue to lose. And I agree with you. So I, even though I'm glad the government didn't shut down, I have much more feeling, much more mixed feelings about this. I was on a podcast with Josh Marshall, who's to the left of me, but he said, you know, What? In a certain sense that a shutdown wouldn't have been great, but it would have accelerated the debate over, you know, what do we want to do with government. It would have dramatized the cuts. It would have made the destruction of the government central in people's lives in a way that it will be at some point, but is not right now. I don't know. This is a tactical decision, but it really did expose, I think, the Democrats inability to be able to navigate this new world. So, anyway, well, we're all having trouble with that. So, Adam, keep the faith, keep fighting.
- [50:11]
Adam Kinzinger
You too, buddy.
- [50:13]
Charlie Sykes
Stretch out the hammy.
- [50:14]
Adam Kinzinger
Yeah, I need to. And I'll say this too. Let's a lesson to myself as well. Let's try to still have fun with this. I know the. The consequences are existential, which sucks, but this can be fun. Especially when we have a community. Your community, my community.
- [50:30]
Charlie Sykes
Right.
- [50:30]
Adam Kinzinger
And we share a lot of the same people, too. So we can have fun.
- [50:33]
Charlie Sykes
Simply because occasionally I will have a sense of humor does not mean I don't take it seriously. It means that I'm trying to stay sane. So thanks for being with me. I appreciate it. Thank you, Adam. And thank you all for listening to this episode of the to the Contrary podcast. I'm Charlay Sykes. You know why we're doing this? Because now more than ever, we need to remind ourselves that we are not the crazy ones. Thanks.