To The Contrary with Charlie Sykes

Episode: Nicholas Grossman: No, The Dems Did Not Win The Shutdown
Date: November 11, 2025
Guest: Professor Nicholas Grossman

Episode Overview

In this episode, Charlie Sykes and Professor Nicholas Grossman dissect the recent government shutdown showdown, examining why key Senate Democrats folded after seemingly having the upper hand following a successful election. The conversation critically explores the Democrats' strategy, the impact of the cave-in on the party base, and the broader erosions in American democratic norms. The discussion also ranges into the Trump administration’s actions and rhetoric—including the latest on January 6th pardons, the direction of the Heritage Foundation, and the political fallout from the ICE raids targeting immigrant communities.

Key Discussion Points and Insights

1. The Democrats’ Shutdown Surrender

(05:55 - 13:50)

• Frustration with Democratic Leadership:
  Both Sykes and Grossman express exasperation at eight Senate Democrats breaking ranks to end the shutdown, especially right after a strong electoral showing. Sykes highlights his attempts to rationalize their decision but ultimately finds no reasonable defense.

• Normal Democracy Mindset:
  Grossman argues Democrats are stuck in a "normal democracy mindset," behaving as if political dynamics and institutional norms haven’t been upended by Trumpism.

  "That's a good example of the normal democracy mindset, as if this is... 2014 or 2006 or something. And that's not the situation at all." — Grossman (07:57)

• Three Possible Paths for Democrats:
  Grossman outlines the routes Democrats could have taken for leverage:

  • Trump making credible concessions (unlikely due to lack of trust).
  • Congressional Republicans offering policy concessions.
  • Republicans eliminating Senate filibuster rules to force the issue (possible, and Democrats seemed unusually fearful of this).

• The Filibuster Fear:
  Sykes and Grossman suggest that key institutionalists may have feared filibuster abolition more than a protracted shutdown, prompting a hasty cave-in.

“Yes, hostage taking works. The hostage taker was rewarded here.” — Sykes (12:39)

2. Blowback and Fallout Within the Democratic Party

(15:16 - 21:29)

• Base Anger and Calls for Leadership Change:
  Sykes highlights visible outrage from the Democratic base and prominent governors. Grossman argues that leaders like Schumer and Durbin are out of step with current political realities and should consider stepping down.

• Outmoded Strategies:
  Grossman ridicules Schumer’s tendency to “govern based on trying to appeal to an imaginary moderate white couple... he nicknamed the Baileys.”

  “That is maybe...how to be a New York senator, but really is unsuited for a moment of Democratic backsliding into authoritarianism.” — Grossman (16:40)

• Failure to Exploit Winning Issues:
  Sykes notes Democrats dropped a popular issue—healthcare premium subsidies—without securing a win, instead relying on a toothless promise of a future vote.

"I wouldn't trust him in a, in a check, in a checkers match." — Sykes, on Schumer’s strategy (20:53)

3. Broader Implications for Democratic Engagement

(23:34 - 25:37)

• Potential for Base-Led Reform:
  Grossman sees a possible silver lining: the episode might invigorate the Democratic base, much as the Tea Party did for Republicans, resulting in primaries and leadership challenges.

• Misreading the Base:
  Democrats continually underestimate just how much their base demands a fighting posture, not more compromise.

  “...overwhelmingly that they're not opposing this stuff. They're not fighting hard enough.” — Grossman (24:02)

4. Trump-era Lawlessness: Pardons and January 6th Revisionism

(25:37 - 30:45)

• Mass Pardoning of January 6th Figures:
  Sykes and Grossman react to Trump’s sweeping pardons for both rioters and legal architects of the coup attempt. They fear the normalization of anti-democratic behavior and its chilling signal for future attempts.

• Strategic Numbing of the Public:
  Grossman:

  “Trump has taken a lot of advantage of that... to, you know, make it more friendly to himself... It is a signal to all levels of his undemocratic, anti rule-of-law supporters: hey, if you commit crimes for me, I got your back. So do it more.” (29:00)

5. The Heritage Foundation’s Hard Right Turn

(33:52 - 35:17)

• Conservative Infrastructure’s Decline:
  Sykes brings up a Wall Street Journal exposé on the Heritage Foundation, reflecting its transformation from Reaganite conservatism to pro-Trump grievance machine. Grossman is incredulous at the abandonment of once-sacred principles, including support for markets and European democracies.

“If the Heritage Foundation... had a pro-market position and in supporting Trump they have to abandon that and go with crony capitalism... it's amazing that you have people like Heritage supporting.” — Grossman (33:55)

6. Political Impact of ICE Raids and GOP Messaging

(35:17 - 41:59)

• Shift in Voter Demographics:
  The hosts discuss how graphic ICE enforcement and anti-immigrant crackdowns are driving minority—and especially Hispanic—voters away from the GOP. Sykes notes a dramatic reversal in Republican gains among Asian and Latino voters after viral videos show masked ICE agents violently targeting civilians.

• Republican Response: Doubling Down
  Despite the backlash, the Trump administration and its allies like Stephen Miller are “locked in,” escalating their tactics to thrill their base and fund ICE.

“...the cruelty is the point. And for this, it's the images of cruelty is exactly what this audience wants.” — Grossman (41:45)

7. Foreign Policy: Drums of War

(43:59 - 49:05)

• Military Escalation Near Venezuela:
  Grossman analyzes Trump’s saber-rattling, including deploying naval power near Venezuela. He notes the lack of strategic logic, suggesting these moves may be theatrical distractions rather than sound policy.

“...for the amount of military hardware that they've moved, it's a lot to potentially bomb a bunch of stuff inside the state, but nowhere near...the type of occupation force to then go in and rebuild something afterwards...” — Grossman (46:53)

• Pattern of Short-Term Showmanship:
  Sykes and Grossman agree that Trump prioritizes optics and immediate wins—regardless of consequences—over strategic planning.

Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• On Schumer’s Approach:
  “He has argued about how he effectively governs based on trying to appeal to a imaginary moderate white couple in his head that he nicknamed the Baileys.”
  — Grossman (16:25)

• On the Cave-In:
  “It's that the bait and switch, the pulling the chair out, that is probably going to bother them the most.”
  — Grossman (50:49)

• On Trump Loyalty & Pardon Strategy:
  “If you stick close to Donald Trump, he will protect you. If you are on the outside, you are a target. So you have to make a decision.”
  — Sykes paraphrasing Adam Serwer (30:49)

• On the Shift in GOP Immigration Tactics:
  “The brutality is the point.”
  — Grossman (41:45)

Timestamps for Key Segments

• Democrats Surrender After Election Victory: 05:55 – 13:50
• Internal Democratic Blowback & Need for New Leadership: 15:16 – 21:29
• Base Reaction and Potential Party Upheaval: 23:34 – 25:37
• Trump’s Revisionist Pardons on J6: 25:37 – 30:45
• Heritage Foundation Transformation: 33:52 – 35:17
• ICE Raids Driving Electoral Shifts: 35:17 – 41:59
• Foreign Policy and Venezuela: 43:59 – 49:05
• Final Reflections on Democratic Base Anger: 50:32 – 50:50

Tone and Closing Sentiments

The episode is bracingly candid, sharp, and at times openly frustrated, especially regarding Democratic leadership’s failure to meet the moment. There’s also a note of grim humor and exasperation as the guests stress the profound seriousness of continuing anti-democratic trends.

Charlie Sykes closes:
“…we’re not going to cave, we’re not going to bend the knee. And we need to remind ourselves that we are not the crazy ones.” (50:50)

This summary covers the episode’s reflection on the political moment, the consequences of Democratic strategic timidity, and the broader forces shaping American politics in the second Trump era.