Summary of "Nicholas Grossman: Tariffs, Tyranny, and Tipping Points" on "To The Contrary with Charlie Sykes"

In the May 1, 2025 episode of "To The Contrary with Charlie Sykes," host Charlie Sykes engages in a profound discussion with Nicholas Grossman, the editor of Arc Digital and a professor of political science at the University of Illinois. The conversation navigates through critical contemporary issues influenced by Donald Trump's presidency, including international relations, domestic policies, economic strategies, and shifting public perceptions.

1. Trump's Influence on the Canadian Election

The episode begins with an analysis of the recent Canadian elections, highlighting the unprecedented impact Donald Trump had on the outcome.

Nicholas Grossman (01:22): "I can't think of a single election... where threats from a foreign country then rapidly flipped the outcome of an election that looked almost certain."

Grossman explains that Trump's aggressive stance, including threats of making Canada the "51st state" and imposing tariffs, significantly undermined the Conservative Party's prospects in Canada. Previously trailing by 20 points in polls and largely written off, the Conservatives were unexpectedly defeated as Canadian voters rallied behind the Liberal Party, led by Mark Carney.

Grossman (02:10): "The Liberal Prime Minister Justin Trudeau stood up to it... and the Conservatives then were caught somewhat flat footed."

This incident underscores the rare extent to which a U.S. president can disrupt another country's democratic process, showcasing Trump's ability to influence international politics directly.

2. Shifting US Public Opinion on Trump's Policies

The discussion moves to the evolving perception of Trump's policies among American voters, particularly in light of recent polls.

Charlie Sykes (04:18): "Most Americans take Trump's Canada, Greenland and third term ideas seriously and oppose them."

Grossman affirms this shift, noting that Trump's persistent rhetoric around tariffs and the potential annexation of territories is now being taken more seriously by the public. He highlights the danger of assuming that Trump's statements are mere threats or political bluster, given his track record of not adhering to legal constraints when in power.

Grossman (05:10): "I expect him to lie and come up with who knows what rationale... It makes sense to take it seriously."

This change marks a significant departure from the earlier skepticism many held towards Trump's more extreme propositions, indicating a growing awareness and concern among the electorate.

3. Trump’s Challenge to Due Process and American Principles

A critical area of concern discussed is Trump's approach to due process, especially regarding immigration policies.

Charlie Sykes (11:19): "Donald Trump was counting on this... you have to step out, make war against the notion of innocent until proven guilty."

Grossman elaborates on how Trump's policies, such as deporting families and minors without due process, starkly contradict fundamental American values. This erosion of civil liberties is igniting backlash not only from opponents but also from within the Republican base itself.

Grossman (13:00): "The idea of innocent until proven guilty is one of the oldest, most core American principles."

This violation of due process is increasingly alienating voters who prioritize constitutional rights, thereby weakening Trump's support among certain demographics.

4. Economic Impacts of Tariffs and Business Community Reactions

Tariffs remain a contentious aspect of Trump's economic policy, with significant repercussions for the U.S. economy and international trade relations.

Charlie Sykes (23:36): "He fundamentally does not understand economics... it's non-sensical."

Grossman critiques Trump's inconsistent and often uninformed approach to tariffs, which disrupt supply chains, lead to empty store shelves, and create economic uncertainty. He points out that Trump's tariffs are economically counterproductive, leading to higher costs for consumers and strained international relationships.

Grossman (20:47): "It's just more like a salesman pitch... rather than a genuine argument."

This mismanagement not only hampers economic growth but also erodes trust in the U.S. as a reliable trading partner, complicating efforts to stabilize and grow the economy.

5. Military Involvement in Law Enforcement and Authoritarian Risks

A particularly alarming topic is Trump's executive orders that potentially empower the military to engage in domestic law enforcement.

Charlie Sykes (30:06): "They do have the Insurrection act in their pocket."

Grossman discusses the implications of these orders, highlighting the risk of violating established laws like passe comitas which traditionally prevent military involvement on U.S. soil. He warns of the potential for politicizing the military, leading to internal divisions and undermining democratic safeguards.

Grossman (31:13): "If he decides to invoke it... the real nightmare scenario, splitting the military over something like this."

This move towards militarizing civilian law enforcement signals a drift toward authoritarianism, eroding the separation between military and civilian spheres essential for a democratic society.

6. Ukraine Conflict and US Policy under Trump

The ongoing Ukraine conflict serves as another focal point, with Trump's ambiguous stance complicating international responses to Russian aggression.

Nicholas Grossman (36:12): "It is Russian aggression... Putin attacked... he didn't have to."

Grossman emphasizes that Russia's invasion of Ukraine is unprovoked aggression, and effective countermeasures are necessary to support Ukraine’s sovereignty. He criticizes the notion that external factors, including U.S. policies, solely influence Ukraine's resistance, reaffirming the importance of steadfast support against Russian expansionism.

Grossman (40:39): "Trump is all-in on this... he just really has affinity for Russia."

This stance weakens the U.S. position internationally and emboldens Russian aggression, further destabilizing global security.

7. Significance of Shifting Public Opinion and Containment

The conversation concludes with reflections on the impact of shifting public opinion against Trump and its potential role in containing his authoritarian tendencies.

Nicholas Grossman (47:36): "Public opinion is hard to really... but is always having an effect on politics."

Grossman argues that while Congressional Republicans remain largely loyal to Trump, the broader public's growing opposition can create pressures that may eventually limit Trump's ability to overreach. He notes that sectors like law firms and private industries are beginning to resist Trump's intimidation tactics, which could contribute to a gradual erosion of his unchecked power.

Grossman (51:00): "Courage can be contagious... people are standing up to it."

Despite the entrenched loyalty within the Republican Party, Grossman remains hopeful that incremental shifts in public sentiment and civil society's resistance can serve as critical checks against further authoritarian measures.

Conclusion

The episode paints a sobering picture of the current political landscape under Donald Trump's presidency. From international interference affecting foreign elections to domestic policies undermining core American values, the conversation underscores the multifaceted challenges facing democratic institutions. Grossman's insights highlight the importance of vigilant public opinion and civil society in mitigating the risks of authoritarianism, emphasizing that while obstacles remain significant, the collective will of the populace holds the potential to uphold democratic norms.

Notable Quotes:

• Nicholas Grossman (01:22): "I can't think of a single election... where threats from a foreign country then rapidly flipped the outcome of an election that looked almost certain."

• Charlie Sykes (04:18): "Most Americans take Trump's Canada, Greenland and third term ideas seriously and oppose them."

• Nicholas Grossman (05:10): "I expect him to lie and come up with who knows what rationale... It makes sense to take it seriously."

• Charlie Sykes (11:19): "Donald Trump was counting on this... you have to step out, make war against the notion of innocent until proven guilty."

• Nicholas Grossman (13:00): "The idea of innocent until proven guilty is one of the oldest, most core American principles."

• Charlies Sykes (23:36): "He fundamentally does not understand economics... it's non-sensical."

• Nicholas Grossman (31:13): "If he decides to invoke it... the real nightmare scenario, splitting the military over something like this."

• Nicholas Grossman (40:39): "Trump is all-in on this... he just really has affinity for Russia."

• Nicholas Grossman (47:36): "Public opinion is hard to really... but is always having an effect on politics."

For more insights and detailed analyses, you can follow Nicholas Grossman's work at Arc Digital and his academic contributions at the University of Illinois.